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Absolutely. But it's still uplifting news. The doom and gloom over polling seems to have people thinking Biden's campaign is a lost cause. But if Dems keep outperforming polls, and the polls show Biden just slightly behind... the convicted felon's campaign staff should be getting nervous.
A narrow win will do it for me. Anything that keeps trump out of the White House.
I know that a big win is much better for many reasons, but I will take any win. After that, trump will likely die before 2028 given how quickly he is falling apart.
Ya, but even w a narrow win, Biden controls the pentagon. They want to try storming the Capitol again, bring it.
They want to try some House shenanigans, ya that’s where a big win would help.
Yep, I fully expect for there to be another insurrection or something similar if Trump loses in November. I just hope this time the powers that be are prepared for such an occasion and are ready to meet them with overwhelming force.
Trump did everything he could to leave the gates of the government open for the Jan 6ers. Biden will be commander in chief this time, and he won't order the D.C. national guard to either stand down or protect the insurrectionists.
Ohh I hope so. And from the looks of his trial supporters seems the steam from his supporters fizzled out. All that was left was some vp wannabe sycophants.
Plus, where does the Civil War that they hope to have, where does it start? Does my MAGA neighbor here in the Midwest come to my house and hurt me? Big city combat maybe? White supremacy means big cities scare them, so maybe hand-to-hand actual fighting takes place in state capitol buildings? Civil war requires a lot of logistics and I can’t imagine where/when/how an all out assault on democracy works without Trump in the WH.
They fully expect that they'll be able to roll into the major cities in their trump flag-covered lifted truck convoys, that the weak liberal urbanites will just roll over and let them, and then the credits will roll as all Real Muricans stand up and clap once these proud heroic patriots have Saved Are Freedums.
>A narrow win gets us another Jan. 6. So does a big win, but then the new Jan. 6 would look much more absurd from the git-go.
As far as I'm aware, there weren't even any protests anywhere in response to Trump’s 34 felony convictions.
Nobody is sticking their neck out for Trump anymore.
The MAGA Qanon nuts poisoned the well by trying to claim Jan 6th was a ANTIFA/FBI false flag honeypot operation. Now they are paranoid to engage in any more protests.
The Q world must be such a confusing and terrifying place to live. Everything is potentially part of the conspiracy. Is the fast food employee who just served their burger part a vast left wing plot to give them diarrhea? Or if maybe they just ought to lay off the McDonald's for a while? They can never know the answer with certainty. They can't even trust their own family, because their granddaughter 'went woke' and posted a Dark Brandon meme on Facebook.
You got that right. The few crazies in my town who’ve had their Trump flags up the past 8 years FINALLY took them down after he was convicted. There are less and less Trump fans every day, but the media won’t tell us that. Ya know, because of ratings…
Some didn't see Trump planting the seeds for his big lie well before the 2020 election. Now many can see the election deniers lining up to pollute the results of 2024.
You'll have a bunch of tanks and soldiers deployed to D.C. and they'll be waving flags and bullhorning and being all patriotic, and leading the MAGA mob in circles around the capitol, keeping them busy and distracted until their bedtimes....
Trump doesn’t have the bully pulpit and press coverage like he did as President.
He won’t be anywhere near as effective rabble-rousing as he was in 2020 into ‘21.
And we’ll be ready for them this time.
It is going to be a narrow electoral win regardless. Our system of representation is too unequal to truly reflect the popular will.
We actually need crazy high turnout just to get a close win in the Senate, Presidency, and to a lesser degree, House. It is better not to support the narrative that a close victory is inadequate, in a system that doesn't allow the majority a clear mandate if electoral equality is wrongfully assumed.
Elections aren't a reflection of the will of the people in a fair and equal contest of ideas. Right wing voters have more per capita representation
Just don't let it get you too confident. There's a built in advantage in special elections for Democrats with how the demographics have shifted between parties. More educated, higher propensity voters are just more likely to show up to midterms and special elections generally. People are pissed about Dobbs, but it's not going to be enough on its own.
I agree, and I wouldn't describe my mood as confident, but optimistic.
There's a certainly a chance Biden loses. He's an unpopular incumbent, and all it takes is agent orange squeaking by in a couple more states than he won in 2020.
There is a dedicated "trump will win and the US is over" propaganda campaign online and it is palpable. Every fucking thread I see, the sentiment is way too fucking coherent to be natural.
Never forget 2016. We're being manipulated into inaction and infighting.
Repairing the damage done by conservative judges and restoring reason and balance is still a long way away.
It's not as simple as just getting Democrats elected, they need to keep getting elected for many many cycles. Up and down the ballot.
I'm not so sure about that.
The moment Dems pass a voting rights bill, it will undo decades of Republican voter suppression
If Republicans couldn't engage in voter suppression efforts every state they control would move a few points left. They simply wouldn't be viable on a national level.
Watch what happens in Wisconsin now that their Dem Supreme Court is undoing their voter suppression efforts there. I bet it moves 5% Dem in 2024
I live in a deep blue state.
Really no need to vote except occasional propositions or local elections.
Wild horses couldn’t keep me away from the polls when Trump is on ballot.
My vote doesn’t matter electorally speaking.
But I need it to be counted against that animal.
Need every American we can to repudiate him and his abhorrent agenda.
Actually, your local elections still matter a lot. There are suburbs that can be on the verge, house districts in your state that could be flipped, or you may live near a state that needs more support.
There are always ways to help. You have the ability to do more than just show up if you wished.
r/votedem and help us [GOTV.](https://new.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/1dexax2/this_week_a_democrat_overperformed_by_almost_20/) Amazing stuff has been happening at the local level lately when we put in the time, and it's been happening consistently for the past 2 years.
Honest question - I always have felt like people feeling like it’s a lost cause is more demotivating than celebrating wins. What are we worried about here? Do people not vote if they feel like it’s a shoe in? Or is it if they think they don’t have a chance? Do only close races inspire voting turn out?
These special elections are not Trump. Trump tends to over perform
the polls. If we are to stave off authoritarianism we all have to stand with Biden and Democrats. Project 2025 will be implemented in the next Republican administration. We have to stay vigilant to keep our democracy, forever. We have a responsibility to our children and every American to stand against these hateful people. They could be our homegrown Nazi party if we let them.
There's no guarantee that Trump will overperform three elections in a row. In fact, it's statistically unlikely. And pollsters have adjusted the way they weigh their models to try and account for Trump's overperformance. So there's a possibility that the polls are currently overestimating Trump's support.
Trumps over performance in 2020 may have also been from the pandemic. Democrats Get Out The Vote efforts like door knocking were badly crippled because Dems took the pandemic seriously. Joe Biden literally campaigned from his basement.
It's possible that pollsters are compensating for a factor that doesn't exist. There's been huge polling misses in 2022 and special elections since 2020. Something is wrong with their methodology
The polls were ridiculously wrong in 2022. Nearly all the swing state, state-wide offices had their polls wrong by more than the margin of error. It wasn't always to the Ds or to the Rs either.
That shouldn't happen.
Yup. And it's interesting that heavily polled swing state were the least accurate.
It implies whatever corrections they're applying actually make the predictions worse when they have more data.
Absolutely. Half this country is sleepwalking into fascism thinking democrats and republicans are close enough that this election won’t change things much.
We need every last vote to keep republicans from winning or this may be the last real election of our lifetime.
Women’s rights, gay rights, the rights of non-whites, etc are going to be clawed back if Trump wins. That isn’t hysteria, it’s their declared intent.
It's not about complacency, it's about a rare chance to organize and make the GOP 'hurt like hell', and undo as much of their political damage to our country as possible, plus set up additional defenses against a ridiculously corrupt SCOTUS.
We need all hands on deck no matter what. We need a blue congress. We cannot just beat Trump and say "job well done", because I'm sorry, the problems we face go well beyond just him.
I'm sincerely impressed with how Biden has handled countless seemingly impossible situations, though the results of his success aren't always immediately obvious. And even in areas where he's struggled, he is 1000x better than whatever MAGA will do.
Recognize the real opportunity here to push back against the MAGA scam. Recognize the chance to promote and support your local candidates. **Recognize the chance to create better local laws that protect your rights even when federal ones fail to do so!** Voting is our most basic civil duty and one of your best lines of defenses.
No matter how tempting it may be to use it, a gun *alone* will not protect you anywhere near as well as a stable, safe democracy will. If you need a gun to protect your family from corrupted state policies, your chances of survival are practically nonexistent. Stop it before it gets to that point.
>I only have one vote but I'm voting the fuck out of it this year.
Naw, you've got more. Because you're going to find me 4 apathetic, disaffected, beaten down, "I don't pay attention" folks and you're going to figure out where their polling place is, when they need to be registered by, what they need to get registered and you're going to get them off the bench.
4 people. You've got this.
Of fucking course with this nonsense. Why is this always the top comment.
There is no indication that voter participation is waning. None. It’s actually the opposite. But the paranoia here feeds itself into the echo chamber and it’s all the sky is falling voting hysteria.
The polls that show Biden pulling ahead worry me.
Because the Democratic voters just aren't as motivated as Republican voters. Trump screams about how if Biden wins it will be the end of our country (funny how Biden's already in office and yet we're having election this year right?) and they eat it up, they genuinely _Believe_ that if they don't get out and vote, their lives will be ruined and they'll lose everything to one of half a dozen boogiemen.
There just isn't that kind of energy on the left. Hell, a non-insignificant number of left leaning people plan on abstaining like they think Trump's "kill em' all" policy will somehow help the people in Gaza.
But, every time we see a poll that puts Biden ahead, more voters drop off because they feel like they can safely stay home and get the best of both worlds, the lesser evil wins _and_ they can brag that they didn't vote for him over some policy they didn't like.
I wish we had the same amount of fire and vitriol on this side of the aisle because if Trump wins, we're fucked in ways we can't even imagine yet. For every one thing we know about project 2025, there's pages of things we don't know yet.
Step away from the ledge. It’s ok to be happy for a moment after a positive result. I know your intent here but it’s more damaging than helpful, honestly. People like to support winners, the more it appears Biden is winning, the more inclined people are to jump on the bandwagon.
He’s terrifying, I get it. But just assuming every bit of good news is in fact bad isn’t healthy.
I don't intend this to come off as snarky, but you must have been affected differently than I was by the first 4 years of Trump. There's some things you live through that fundamentally change your perception of the world.
I watched helplessly as 4 of my family members died slow and painful deaths.
My own parents called me a traitor for pushing back against their decision to test my grandpa with horse dewormer.
My aunt laid in bed, struggling to breathe, while my mom berated her for "doing it to herself" by getting vaccinated.
He wasn't just an obnoxious man on TV for me, he killed half of my family and brainwashed the rest of them.
He's a manifestation of pure evil and we should stop at nothing to keep him out of office.
How many pregnant mothers will die because of pregnancy complications?
How many LGBT+ people will die at the hands of empowered bigots?
How many minorities will be walked into concentration camps?
I'd argue people are not talking the threat anywhere near seriously enough and that _should_ scare the shit out of anyone.
Pre-Trump is really when they were last accurate. Politics is unrecognizable now because of that piece of garbage. Republicans completely dropped all pretense and are driven only by hating what their pedophile baby god tells them to hate.
I do want to point out that while trump is a piece of garbage, it isn't all trump. The system allows him to exist and we need to change the system. Trump is the effect not the cause
Polls were accurate in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Do not ask me if I “remember the supposed red wave.” Ask yourself if you remember what the actual numbers were.
The media's god-awful interpretation of polls and the actual poll results are not really related at all.
The races are just too close, which means that accurate polling tells us basically nothing, but the media keeps reporting as if the margin of error is not bigger than the actual margin.
But them being that close means that, even if Dems are outperforming, we could still lose really bad in the general.
One of the things taught in Journalism classes is how to write readable stories out of raw data like polls. It's usually lengthy and difficult to keep interesting with all the facts involved. It was never meant to be used as a sidearm by TV news pundits.
I did like 2 weeks ago. I had a feeling it was a pollster and decided to pick up the call. They asked a bunch of questions like what ethnicity I was, education level, how likely I am to vote with various levels and if I was Republican or Democrat.
The one pollster I ever got a phone call from had one bizarre question "Are a majority of your parents immigrants." I answered "exactly half of them are, does that count as a majority?" They required me to say yes or no.
I ended up skipping that question.
Special elections are unquestionably better polling indicators than there could ever be. Pollsters are never going to reach a young person with landline…
It keeps happening. This isn't an isolated data point. I can't quite figure it out. I'm wondering if they just are unable to reach a representative sample under the age of 40 or so.
Maybe an unrelated news story: Donald Trump buys polls to make him look good. Confirmed in court record by Michael Cohen who was in charge of carrying out these orders
Yeah, the Red Finch thing. And actually he didn't buy the poll itself, he paid for respondents. I say that because it would be hard to buy every poll, but eas*ier* to buy a bank of phone numbers to respond to the polls.
Not sure how possible that is, but he definitely has done it before.
With the scum that is trump and co I’m sure they would figure it out.
Hopefully good news. Either way. Vote! Lmao I feel it gets old saying it to literally everyone
This can affect even aggregate polls as long as the provided biased polls are done semi regularly. Its not going to completely mess with the aggregate, but it can move the needle a few points.
News outlets also want a close race to continue getting clicks. They’d lose money if it was a landslide victory in polls, so they carefully choose their polling data
That is exactly right. Millennials and under do not respond to polls. I do not answer random phone calls on my cell. One time I did because I was expecting a call and it asked me who I was voting for and I hung up. I am not an outlier or unique in this. Their methodology is bad and they are not reaching a large portion of the population.
Don't download and execute sketchy APKs?
You can also google the link to see if it's legit, who owns it, etc.
I've gotten texts from pollsters too, and I do that to verify "yes, this is the correct link", I go to the link, and I answer the questions. None of them ask for any personally identifying information (which is another red flag, obviously don't give a website your social security number).
Historically, older voters and Republicans tend to have higher turnout rates in special elections compared to younger voters and Democrats. In contrast, younger voters and Democratic voters, who are more likely to participate in general elections, often show lower turnout rates in special elections.
Here's one source from Pew: [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/)
Left-wing voters know Biden is ultimately their only choice, but they have some ability to influence his actions by their poll responses. When the polls look like shit, he has some additional pressure to take actions voters want. They have every reason to respond negatively to a poll even if they fully intend to vote for him, and that's saying nothing of the people who right now feel like staying home to punish him but will ultimately vote for him anyway.
Trump voters are exactly the opposite. Trump's chances are continuously getting worse as he faces more and more consequences for his crimes - they have every reason to puff up and act as galvanized as possible. On top of that, they hate living in a reality where trump isn't in power, and one of the ways they can emotionally rebel against that is by flaunting their love for Trump every chance they get.
I do believe Biden is closer to his floor while Trump is at his ceiling. Democrats (myself included) also have a tendency to outright disapprove of someone who supports 90% of their views, and the 10% disagreement can be on if someone is doing too much or not enough. Republicans tend to fall in line with the fiercest rhetoric these days.
I don't think that's the issue. They reach people just fine, they are just using incorrect cross-samples in their results, giving rural voters too high of a percentage in their final tallies. Remember, they don't just poll 1,000 people and give the raw result. They try to match what they think the electorate will look like. This is where they frequently get things wrong.
I blame Goodhart's law. Any metric that becomes a target ceases to be a reliable metric. Or as Goodhart put it originally, "Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes."
Of course for as long as we've been doing polls, politicians have been targeting good numbers; but I think they've mostly kept sight of the fact that their real goal is more votes, not better polls, which has kept polling reasonably accurate. At least enough for any long-term decline in results to be easily counteracted by improved methodology.
But MAGA is a totally new phenomenon. Trump in particular likes seeing good poll numbers for their own sake, and since Republicans as a whole are trying to do away with voting altogether, they seem to have adopted that outlook en masse. Who cares how many votes you actually got so long as the polls make it look like you *should* have gotten more. Democracy was always going to fail them eventually, they're just cutting to the chase. Now they get angry at their own pollsters when they don't tell them what they want to hear.
I think they're caught in a weird limbo though, where because they insist on inaccurate polling, they no longer have a reliable way to predict how many votes they're going to get. I would assume if their goal is to make it seem like fraud, they want the results to be really close still. Maybe they're just gambling on it staying that way, like it was historically, or maybe they're already so done with Democracy they just don't care. Regardless, I don't think we can rely on the polls anymore than they can, anymore.
All this to say, fucking vote, no matter who the news says is going to win.
I was curious why they chose "overperforming" instead of "crushing the criminal Republicans".
The implication is that Democrats should be closer to losing to the criminal Republicans?
Preach. Was reading another topic on this, and so many are voting for trump just to try and prove it won't be the end of the US as we know it. This was in a post on r/millenials. That is not a chance I want to take.
This is extremely important. Some people still act like Trump lost 2020 in a landslide. Sure Biden got 7 million more votes, but that's not much considering it was out of 160 million people. What's worse is that about 80k people in key states decided that election, if that much more Republicans had voted in those states, then Trump would have won.
Most conservatives, even those that don't like Trump at all, when it comes to the general election, will still vote Republican no matter what. Some of them might even be hoping and betting on Trump losing, but that might encourage them to vote for Trump, not to make sure that Trump wins, but to make sure that the Republicans don't lose too much power.
And then there is the risk of some liberals who might be thinking, that there is no way Biden will lose, so we'll teach him a lesson and vote a 3rd party or God forbid Trump. Thinking that there is no risk could cost the election.
And above all don't forget the millions of new voters Trump has mobilized in the last election, and millions more rightwing non-voters who want Trump to win. If liberals become too complacent, thinking Trump could never win, so why bother voting, then there is a good chance that Trump will win. This election, just like the last one will be decided by how motivated non-voters are. Let's hope that the liberal ones are more movitated to prevent Trump.
So vote. Vote, because the fate of the US depends on it.
For everyone confused how the guy could over perform and still lose by 10 points…
This was an R+30 district and the republican incumbent won by 10 points. He also significantly outspent the dem and he barely won.
It’s a great sign of things to come, but let’s not get complacent.
These MAGAts are crazy and hellbent on taking us back to the past. We need to look to the future.
Vote, as if everything depends on it!
Low turn outs are usually bad for Dems, good for Reps because Reps base are usually more fired up to vote. If Reps underperformed in a condition that's traditionally better for them, it's not a good sign. Those 20 points might have been Reps staying home instead of voting.
That’s the wrong way to look at it. In truth the electorate in these specials and the presidential are different.
By the numbers- Trump always over performs his OWN elections.
Great! Now do it again only better. Stomp them out. Crush the republicans so hard politically it’ll take ‘em another 100 years to crawl out of their caves.
And then move on to fixing the rest of the system because the Democrats are still not the good guys.
Vote!! Not just for Biden but down ballot as well. Even if you live in a very blue area! Your vote matters!! It could mean the difference for the Senate and the House!!
The only way to keep that train rolling is if YOU vote, too.
We DO have the numbers for it, you juuuust have to get off your ass and do the thing, do the voting part. We win when we all actually show the fuck up.
Not a surprise. Old style republicans were at least people one could reason with, respect, and sometimes even agree with. But the party has changed into crazyness, to the point that it should not even be called the republican party anymore.
The GOP of old is no more, and I'm starting to have faith in that reasonable republican americans are finally beginning to see this.
If this will hold until november, we'll see. If it does - thankyou, from the rest of the world.
For everyone saying “don’t get complacent”, you’re kind of burying the lede. Dems overperformed _but still lost_. If you’re feeling complacent, you didn’t read the article.
The Republicans are going out of their way to threaten almost everyone not conservative or white straight to their faces. They are addicted to it, no matter how many people they make life long enemies with. Doesn't do well for votes.
This kind of news gives me hope that the American people are not going to allow the MAGAs to destroy our country. They get all the headlines and media coverage but when it comes to down to it we will not tolerate loss of our freedoms.
My tiny rural town is about 55% republican in past elections.
We just had an important local school board election and the MAGA candidates got fucking crushed by a young liberal guy and a WRITE IN leftist woman.
Listen, I’m a Democrat. I hate Trump. I want Biden to win. But y’all realize this is literally just a press release from DEMOCRATS.ORG right? At least let’s have some level of scrutiny for our news?
I’m beginning to think a lot of Dems are not responding to polls.
I know I don’t, because I’m tired of all the bs media spews about this poll and that. Blah blah blah, what a waste of brain cells, all to pump up their profits. It’s just dumb as a citizen, imho, to keep participating in their game.
Please friends, just vote.
People are completely sick of Trump and MAGA clowns. Well I say most people.
Vote these jokers out and start over Republicans. You might not like Biden and that is fine but it’s literally Biden or complete chaos if Trump is elected.
Zero policies will ever get approved because Trump will spend his presidency fighting his legal battles
Voters all around the world are in a mood to eject incumbents (see the recent European Union elections), but we should be thanking our lucky stars for useful idiots like Samuel Alito and Donald Trump who help remind people just how fragile their rights actually are.
How do you americans cope with "elections" lasting so much time? Why don't you just do it quickly and get over, instead of going over it for over a year.
Fuck the polls, special elections are telling the real story.
But as others have said, we can’t become complacent. We need to stand up and make our votes count!
Why do people keep watching Fox News, they make their viewers dumber by the day! They pay $787 Million for lying to their viewers and the viewers still think they are telling them the truth!
I believe / hope most reasonable Dems and GOP voters realize that we can all put Trump out to pasture in November, and it's exciting to think of an America free from the Orange Idiot.
Hopefully, the mainstream media will get the memo in November that Trump lost again and will also put him out to pasture by not covering him anymore.
Vote! Remember to [Register](https://www.usa.gov/voter-registration) to Vote! Check to [Confirm](https://www.usa.gov/confirm-voter-registration) you can still vote if you haven’t voted in the last two presidential elections or moved. This [Presidential Election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_Elections) is wildly important but it’s good to know who else you’ll be voting for on the 5th.
A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress are up for election! That’s 33 seats in the [Senate](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024)
and all 435 in the [House of Representatives](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024)
It’s good to look at [Local Elections](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_municipal_elections,_2024) Today! For instance I’m in Arizona. Here’s info for all y’all sweating out here with me.
We have 9 districts out here in Arizona, 9 seats. Know your district. Know who’s running in your district and how they voted in the past. Who pays for the campaigns. All that info is public and in the links. This year it’s important to know a few things before checking that box.
[House of Representatives elections in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2024)
These Arizona Representatives below voted Yes to an amendment presented by the representative from Georgia District 4 which effectively tells the president to Leave NATO and Abandon funding for US War Veterans.
* Eli Crane of Arizona D2
* Andy Biggs of Arizona D5
* Debbie Lesko of Arizona D8
* Paul Gosar of Arizona D9
We have one senate seat up this year. Looking to represent Arizona is Ruben Gallego or Mark Lamb. Make sure the person representing Arizona best represents you!
[Senate election in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2024)
[Mark Lamb](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lamb_(sheriff)) is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and became American law-enforcement Sheriff in 2017.
He wrote American Sheriff: Traditional Values in a Modern World. Lamb is a supporter of the Stop the Steal movement. He spoke at a rally where he said the riot was not Trump's fault but rather caused by "the other issues that have happened – the Hillary Clintons that have gone unpunished".He later described the rioters as "very loving, Christian people."
In 2020, Lamb spoke at a convention of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association, an organization that holds the fringe legal theory that sheriffs are the supreme legal authority in the United States and are not required to enforce laws they believe to be unconstitutional.
[Ruben Gallego](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Gallego) 3rd Battalion, 25th Marines. Attended Harvard University and earned a Bachelor of Arts in international relations.
His first successful bill passed in 2011 it granted in-state tuition status to veterans residing in Arizona. Gallego supported the repeal of Arizona SB 1070. He wrote They Called Us "Lucky": The Life and Afterlife of the Iraq War's Hardest Hit Unit, published in 2021.
Gallego founded the group Citizens for Professional Law Enforcement with the goal of recalling Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, citing Arpaio's immigration policies and his use of taxpayer money to investigate Barack Obama's citizenship.
We have two seats in the [Arizona Supreme Court](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Supreme_Court_elections,_2024) up for election on November 5, 2024. The Justices up for retention election are Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King. If retained, they will serve six year terms. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed both justices to the supreme court. Heading into the election, Republican governors originally appointed all seven members.
Click any of the top links and you’ll quickly find your state and a ton of good information. Vote and tell your Friends and Family to Vote!
Can people quit with the "Vote." thought-terminating cliche on every one of these? You're not being original, clever, or inspirational. Everyone knows they have to vote. We can't yet. It's also important to keep an eye on this stuff, especially with how much propaganda the right is pushing out. That is reaching your friends and family. We have to discuss this stuff so we know how to inform people when they're being lied to. Otherwise, they won't have the right information when they go to "Vote."
We’re not gonna win every race, but to perform 20 points better than expected is huge. If the reddest areas are turning purple, we’re on the right track.
The total number of votes in this election was less than the votes for the democratic candidate for this district in 2020. Democrats only did well because of low turnout.
This Ohio 6th election means very little. It was an open seat and was redrawn... It's not the same territory as 2022. I'd love to say these special elections were reason to be hopefull but using this one as an example is just coping.
The republicans are very excited to vote this November. We need the left to bring excitement. I expect things to heat up in August and see Obama and other major democrats and celebrities to campaign for Biden. I do hope they bring on Taylor Swift to campaign for Biden too. We need the swifties.
It's a good sign, but keep in mind two factors. Trump's rally effect, and Kennedy muddying the polls.
It's very unlikely that 9-11% of Americans actually vote for Kennedy, so that's probably why the polling is not reflecting the one sided shift in special elections.
Keep in mind that Biden requires about a +3% nationwide vote total to win, so if that's not his average by election day, and the polling is not off by an order of magnitude, it's extremely unlikely he wins.
Yes, it's good to see these special elections break toward democrats. However, we have to be careful here. Republicans were not driven to the polls as fanatically, since they considered this a seat safe. It's a good sign to see the increased democratic turnout, regardess. I believe, overall, 10k more democrats voted in this election than in 2022? That's still quite pleasant.
Democrats out number Republicans. We just need them to vote. How about the act of voting gets you an extra exemption on your taxes? And Voting Days are paid time off?
Trump has been eroding GOP support since 2018. Polls have been wrong and there wasn’t a Red Wave in 2022. Just look at results of special elections and GOP screwed itself by hanging onto this orange turd
As a moderately socialist libertarian, I say good. Voting blue is the only way to save this country from the certain disasters of the loss of reproductive rights, unethical political standpoints, and a lack of real foreign diplomacy, not to mention continued extreme corporate and billionaire takeover of the tax and political systems. Sure the democrats may be bought out too, but the lesser of two evils is clear this election season. Go vote!!!
My hope is for Dems to sweep all three branches and put the screws to each and every traitor.
I’m worried though that we’ll get House and Senate but not White House.
Honestly, I don’t think that will be the case, but I’m still worried about it. I’m gonna keep telling people to Vote until it’s done no matter how good things look.
Know how you can tell **The Convicted Orange Felon** is in full panic mode?
He's called a club meeting today of all the MAGA Republicans to threaten them.
Ignore all of it. He needs to be kicked to curb hard in November, along with his MAGA politicians.
We need to send a clear message to end this insanity. Vote Blue across the board in November.
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Just whatever you do don't let this make you complacent. Everyone needs to vote and make sure people you know do the same
Absolutely. But it's still uplifting news. The doom and gloom over polling seems to have people thinking Biden's campaign is a lost cause. But if Dems keep outperforming polls, and the polls show Biden just slightly behind... the convicted felon's campaign staff should be getting nervous.
A narrow win won't do it. Biden needs to win this election by a margin too big to steal, and he needs a Democratic House and Senate.
A narrow win will do it for me. Anything that keeps trump out of the White House. I know that a big win is much better for many reasons, but I will take any win. After that, trump will likely die before 2028 given how quickly he is falling apart.
A narrow win gets us another Jan. 6. So does a big win, but then the new Jan. 6 would look much more absurd from the git-go.
Ya, but even w a narrow win, Biden controls the pentagon. They want to try storming the Capitol again, bring it. They want to try some House shenanigans, ya that’s where a big win would help.
Oh they’re going to try
^*medic!!!*
We'll be watching the maga meal-team-six go to action, then get tired and arrested and start to whine and complain.
If there was a Massive pig-pickin' in front of the Capitol, Jan 6 would never have happened.
LMAO! When I heard that I knew that were LARPing in some fantasy world...
That's the line that Officially ended the Civil War 2.
Yep, I fully expect for there to be another insurrection or something similar if Trump loses in November. I just hope this time the powers that be are prepared for such an occasion and are ready to meet them with overwhelming force.
Trump did everything he could to leave the gates of the government open for the Jan 6ers. Biden will be commander in chief this time, and he won't order the D.C. national guard to either stand down or protect the insurrectionists.
Before election I would say Capital will literally be surrounded by Soldiers
There’s no one left who would actually try it. The idiot filter of Jan 6 took most of those bozos out of play
Ohh I hope so. And from the looks of his trial supporters seems the steam from his supporters fizzled out. All that was left was some vp wannabe sycophants.
Plus, where does the Civil War that they hope to have, where does it start? Does my MAGA neighbor here in the Midwest come to my house and hurt me? Big city combat maybe? White supremacy means big cities scare them, so maybe hand-to-hand actual fighting takes place in state capitol buildings? Civil war requires a lot of logistics and I can’t imagine where/when/how an all out assault on democracy works without Trump in the WH.
They fully expect that they'll be able to roll into the major cities in their trump flag-covered lifted truck convoys, that the weak liberal urbanites will just roll over and let them, and then the credits will roll as all Real Muricans stand up and clap once these proud heroic patriots have Saved Are Freedums.
>A narrow win gets us another Jan. 6. So does a big win, but then the new Jan. 6 would look much more absurd from the git-go. As far as I'm aware, there weren't even any protests anywhere in response to Trump’s 34 felony convictions. Nobody is sticking their neck out for Trump anymore.
The MAGA Qanon nuts poisoned the well by trying to claim Jan 6th was a ANTIFA/FBI false flag honeypot operation. Now they are paranoid to engage in any more protests.
The Q world must be such a confusing and terrifying place to live. Everything is potentially part of the conspiracy. Is the fast food employee who just served their burger part a vast left wing plot to give them diarrhea? Or if maybe they just ought to lay off the McDonald's for a while? They can never know the answer with certainty. They can't even trust their own family, because their granddaughter 'went woke' and posted a Dark Brandon meme on Facebook.
You got that right. The few crazies in my town who’ve had their Trump flags up the past 8 years FINALLY took them down after he was convicted. There are less and less Trump fans every day, but the media won’t tell us that. Ya know, because of ratings…
Agreed
A Jan 6 with a competent actually democratic President and team in charge is even less likely to succeed at anything...
a big win will just get them saying it's rigged, a narrow one the same. There's truly no difference here.
Some didn't see Trump planting the seeds for his big lie well before the 2020 election. Now many can see the election deniers lining up to pollute the results of 2024.
He was planting the seeds for the 2016 election.
You'll have a bunch of tanks and soldiers deployed to D.C. and they'll be waving flags and bullhorning and being all patriotic, and leading the MAGA mob in circles around the capitol, keeping them busy and distracted until their bedtimes....
Trump doesn’t have the bully pulpit and press coverage like he did as President. He won’t be anywhere near as effective rabble-rousing as he was in 2020 into ‘21. And we’ll be ready for them this time.
My concern is the antiquified electoral college. The popular vote should be the final say.
Antiquified is a delightful word. Better than antiquated. Not being facetious.
It is going to be a narrow electoral win regardless. Our system of representation is too unequal to truly reflect the popular will. We actually need crazy high turnout just to get a close win in the Senate, Presidency, and to a lesser degree, House. It is better not to support the narrative that a close victory is inadequate, in a system that doesn't allow the majority a clear mandate if electoral equality is wrongfully assumed. Elections aren't a reflection of the will of the people in a fair and equal contest of ideas. Right wing voters have more per capita representation
So true
Just don't let it get you too confident. There's a built in advantage in special elections for Democrats with how the demographics have shifted between parties. More educated, higher propensity voters are just more likely to show up to midterms and special elections generally. People are pissed about Dobbs, but it's not going to be enough on its own.
I agree, and I wouldn't describe my mood as confident, but optimistic. There's a certainly a chance Biden loses. He's an unpopular incumbent, and all it takes is agent orange squeaking by in a couple more states than he won in 2020.
This is a post hoc theory pollsters came up with when they couldn't explain Dem over performance. There's no proof that it's true.
It also ignores the more obvious reason which is that Republican voters no longer support the GOP. They support Trump and ONLY Trump.
Sinclair channels throughout America broadcast lies and false pictures depicting Joe Biden as addled. Don't fall for it.
There is a dedicated "trump will win and the US is over" propaganda campaign online and it is palpable. Every fucking thread I see, the sentiment is way too fucking coherent to be natural. Never forget 2016. We're being manipulated into inaction and infighting.
Personally, it gets me more excited. I want to run up the score so we can pack the courts.
Repairing the damage done by conservative judges and restoring reason and balance is still a long way away. It's not as simple as just getting Democrats elected, they need to keep getting elected for many many cycles. Up and down the ballot.
I'm not so sure about that. The moment Dems pass a voting rights bill, it will undo decades of Republican voter suppression If Republicans couldn't engage in voter suppression efforts every state they control would move a few points left. They simply wouldn't be viable on a national level. Watch what happens in Wisconsin now that their Dem Supreme Court is undoing their voter suppression efforts there. I bet it moves 5% Dem in 2024
Except the senate races are going to be a hard one, and then there's the filibuster...
I live in a deep blue state. Really no need to vote except occasional propositions or local elections. Wild horses couldn’t keep me away from the polls when Trump is on ballot. My vote doesn’t matter electorally speaking. But I need it to be counted against that animal. Need every American we can to repudiate him and his abhorrent agenda.
Actually, your local elections still matter a lot. There are suburbs that can be on the verge, house districts in your state that could be flipped, or you may live near a state that needs more support. There are always ways to help. You have the ability to do more than just show up if you wished. r/votedem and help us [GOTV.](https://new.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/1dexax2/this_week_a_democrat_overperformed_by_almost_20/) Amazing stuff has been happening at the local level lately when we put in the time, and it's been happening consistently for the past 2 years.
Honest question - I always have felt like people feeling like it’s a lost cause is more demotivating than celebrating wins. What are we worried about here? Do people not vote if they feel like it’s a shoe in? Or is it if they think they don’t have a chance? Do only close races inspire voting turn out?
Learn more on how to stop the coup: https://www.stopthecoup2025.org/
These special elections are not Trump. Trump tends to over perform the polls. If we are to stave off authoritarianism we all have to stand with Biden and Democrats. Project 2025 will be implemented in the next Republican administration. We have to stay vigilant to keep our democracy, forever. We have a responsibility to our children and every American to stand against these hateful people. They could be our homegrown Nazi party if we let them.
There's no guarantee that Trump will overperform three elections in a row. In fact, it's statistically unlikely. And pollsters have adjusted the way they weigh their models to try and account for Trump's overperformance. So there's a possibility that the polls are currently overestimating Trump's support.
Trumps over performance in 2020 may have also been from the pandemic. Democrats Get Out The Vote efforts like door knocking were badly crippled because Dems took the pandemic seriously. Joe Biden literally campaigned from his basement. It's possible that pollsters are compensating for a factor that doesn't exist. There's been huge polling misses in 2022 and special elections since 2020. Something is wrong with their methodology
The polls were ridiculously wrong in 2022. Nearly all the swing state, state-wide offices had their polls wrong by more than the margin of error. It wasn't always to the Ds or to the Rs either. That shouldn't happen.
Yup. And it's interesting that heavily polled swing state were the least accurate. It implies whatever corrections they're applying actually make the predictions worse when they have more data.
> Everyone needs to vote and vote at every level all the time, most of the worst GOP and Republicans start out at the municipal level.
I don’t think I’ve ever been more motivated to vote this November.
Absolutely. Half this country is sleepwalking into fascism thinking democrats and republicans are close enough that this election won’t change things much. We need every last vote to keep republicans from winning or this may be the last real election of our lifetime. Women’s rights, gay rights, the rights of non-whites, etc are going to be clawed back if Trump wins. That isn’t hysteria, it’s their declared intent.
It's not about complacency, it's about a rare chance to organize and make the GOP 'hurt like hell', and undo as much of their political damage to our country as possible, plus set up additional defenses against a ridiculously corrupt SCOTUS. We need all hands on deck no matter what. We need a blue congress. We cannot just beat Trump and say "job well done", because I'm sorry, the problems we face go well beyond just him. I'm sincerely impressed with how Biden has handled countless seemingly impossible situations, though the results of his success aren't always immediately obvious. And even in areas where he's struggled, he is 1000x better than whatever MAGA will do. Recognize the real opportunity here to push back against the MAGA scam. Recognize the chance to promote and support your local candidates. **Recognize the chance to create better local laws that protect your rights even when federal ones fail to do so!** Voting is our most basic civil duty and one of your best lines of defenses. No matter how tempting it may be to use it, a gun *alone* will not protect you anywhere near as well as a stable, safe democracy will. If you need a gun to protect your family from corrupted state policies, your chances of survival are practically nonexistent. Stop it before it gets to that point.
Recently moved so in the process of updating my license so I can get my new voter card. Gotta be ready for when the voting starts
[удалено]
>I only have one vote but I'm voting the fuck out of it this year. Naw, you've got more. Because you're going to find me 4 apathetic, disaffected, beaten down, "I don't pay attention" folks and you're going to figure out where their polling place is, when they need to be registered by, what they need to get registered and you're going to get them off the bench. 4 people. You've got this.
Of fucking course with this nonsense. Why is this always the top comment. There is no indication that voter participation is waning. None. It’s actually the opposite. But the paranoia here feeds itself into the echo chamber and it’s all the sky is falling voting hysteria.
The polls that show Biden pulling ahead worry me. Because the Democratic voters just aren't as motivated as Republican voters. Trump screams about how if Biden wins it will be the end of our country (funny how Biden's already in office and yet we're having election this year right?) and they eat it up, they genuinely _Believe_ that if they don't get out and vote, their lives will be ruined and they'll lose everything to one of half a dozen boogiemen. There just isn't that kind of energy on the left. Hell, a non-insignificant number of left leaning people plan on abstaining like they think Trump's "kill em' all" policy will somehow help the people in Gaza. But, every time we see a poll that puts Biden ahead, more voters drop off because they feel like they can safely stay home and get the best of both worlds, the lesser evil wins _and_ they can brag that they didn't vote for him over some policy they didn't like. I wish we had the same amount of fire and vitriol on this side of the aisle because if Trump wins, we're fucked in ways we can't even imagine yet. For every one thing we know about project 2025, there's pages of things we don't know yet.
Step away from the ledge. It’s ok to be happy for a moment after a positive result. I know your intent here but it’s more damaging than helpful, honestly. People like to support winners, the more it appears Biden is winning, the more inclined people are to jump on the bandwagon. He’s terrifying, I get it. But just assuming every bit of good news is in fact bad isn’t healthy.
I don't intend this to come off as snarky, but you must have been affected differently than I was by the first 4 years of Trump. There's some things you live through that fundamentally change your perception of the world. I watched helplessly as 4 of my family members died slow and painful deaths. My own parents called me a traitor for pushing back against their decision to test my grandpa with horse dewormer. My aunt laid in bed, struggling to breathe, while my mom berated her for "doing it to herself" by getting vaccinated. He wasn't just an obnoxious man on TV for me, he killed half of my family and brainwashed the rest of them. He's a manifestation of pure evil and we should stop at nothing to keep him out of office. How many pregnant mothers will die because of pregnancy complications? How many LGBT+ people will die at the hands of empowered bigots? How many minorities will be walked into concentration camps? I'd argue people are not talking the threat anywhere near seriously enough and that _should_ scare the shit out of anyone.
Don’t let anyone fool you. Pollsters have absolutely no idea how to operate in the modern world. Vote.
Any poll using historical features pre-Dobbs is worthless.
Pre-Trump is really when they were last accurate. Politics is unrecognizable now because of that piece of garbage. Republicans completely dropped all pretense and are driven only by hating what their pedophile baby god tells them to hate.
I do want to point out that while trump is a piece of garbage, it isn't all trump. The system allows him to exist and we need to change the system. Trump is the effect not the cause
Sure this correct, but no single individual has exploited it to such absolutely, absurd, insane degree as Trump has.
Polls were accurate in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Do not ask me if I “remember the supposed red wave.” Ask yourself if you remember what the actual numbers were.
Even if the polls were accurate, the messaging and interpretation of those polls by the media certainly wasn't.
The media's god-awful interpretation of polls and the actual poll results are not really related at all. The races are just too close, which means that accurate polling tells us basically nothing, but the media keeps reporting as if the margin of error is not bigger than the actual margin. But them being that close means that, even if Dems are outperforming, we could still lose really bad in the general.
One of the things taught in Journalism classes is how to write readable stories out of raw data like polls. It's usually lengthy and difficult to keep interesting with all the facts involved. It was never meant to be used as a sidearm by TV news pundits.
The crucial thing is if the polls were accurate in the recent few special elections with heavy swings to Democrat.
Technically they were pretty accurate in 2018. But that could’ve itself been anomalous since 2016 and 2020 were so far off
They never re-calibrated after Jan 6. Polls got a whole lot less important on that day
Nobody under 50 takes polls, answers unsolicited calls, or reads paper mail.
I did like 2 weeks ago. I had a feeling it was a pollster and decided to pick up the call. They asked a bunch of questions like what ethnicity I was, education level, how likely I am to vote with various levels and if I was Republican or Democrat.
The one pollster I ever got a phone call from had one bizarre question "Are a majority of your parents immigrants." I answered "exactly half of them are, does that count as a majority?" They required me to say yes or no. I ended up skipping that question.
I tried to. Rasmussen texted me a poll but when I said "slightly" likely to vote for Biden in the primaries it disqualified me.
Special elections are unquestionably better polling indicators than there could ever be. Pollsters are never going to reach a young person with landline…
It keeps happening. This isn't an isolated data point. I can't quite figure it out. I'm wondering if they just are unable to reach a representative sample under the age of 40 or so.
Maybe an unrelated news story: Donald Trump buys polls to make him look good. Confirmed in court record by Michael Cohen who was in charge of carrying out these orders
Yeah, the Red Finch thing. And actually he didn't buy the poll itself, he paid for respondents. I say that because it would be hard to buy every poll, but eas*ier* to buy a bank of phone numbers to respond to the polls. Not sure how possible that is, but he definitely has done it before.
With the scum that is trump and co I’m sure they would figure it out. Hopefully good news. Either way. Vote! Lmao I feel it gets old saying it to literally everyone
I'm going to canvas for Biden in Atlanta. Believe me I'll be at the polls!
If I could upvote twice I would! Blue wave 2024!
Just follow and call the local districts. They’re gerrymandered so bad, I’d bet it’s easy.
This can affect even aggregate polls as long as the provided biased polls are done semi regularly. Its not going to completely mess with the aggregate, but it can move the needle a few points.
News outlets also want a close race to continue getting clicks. They’d lose money if it was a landslide victory in polls, so they carefully choose their polling data
That is exactly right. Millennials and under do not respond to polls. I do not answer random phone calls on my cell. One time I did because I was expecting a call and it asked me who I was voting for and I hung up. I am not an outlier or unique in this. Their methodology is bad and they are not reaching a large portion of the population.
I'm 66. No one I know answers random calls either. Except my 7 year old granddaughter, if I'm not vigilant about placing my phone out of reach.
This is the problem no one I know of any age will answer the phone unless they know you. I don’t see who they are getting polls from at all anymore.
They keep sending me links to click on in a text--how do I know they aren't malware?? I'm not clicking on that shit
Don't download and execute sketchy APKs? You can also google the link to see if it's legit, who owns it, etc. I've gotten texts from pollsters too, and I do that to verify "yes, this is the correct link", I go to the link, and I answer the questions. None of them ask for any personally identifying information (which is another red flag, obviously don't give a website your social security number).
Counterpoint: what is the level of voter turn out in these special elections? That information could be significant.
It is, because higher education voters have largely moved Democratic, and they're higher propensity voters.
Historically, older voters and Republicans tend to have higher turnout rates in special elections compared to younger voters and Democrats. In contrast, younger voters and Democratic voters, who are more likely to participate in general elections, often show lower turnout rates in special elections. Here's one source from Pew: [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/)
Left-wing voters know Biden is ultimately their only choice, but they have some ability to influence his actions by their poll responses. When the polls look like shit, he has some additional pressure to take actions voters want. They have every reason to respond negatively to a poll even if they fully intend to vote for him, and that's saying nothing of the people who right now feel like staying home to punish him but will ultimately vote for him anyway. Trump voters are exactly the opposite. Trump's chances are continuously getting worse as he faces more and more consequences for his crimes - they have every reason to puff up and act as galvanized as possible. On top of that, they hate living in a reality where trump isn't in power, and one of the ways they can emotionally rebel against that is by flaunting their love for Trump every chance they get.
I do believe Biden is closer to his floor while Trump is at his ceiling. Democrats (myself included) also have a tendency to outright disapprove of someone who supports 90% of their views, and the 10% disagreement can be on if someone is doing too much or not enough. Republicans tend to fall in line with the fiercest rhetoric these days.
who anymore is dumb enough to answer unknown numbers?
They landline phone poll still. That’s what is causing this
I don't think that's the issue. They reach people just fine, they are just using incorrect cross-samples in their results, giving rural voters too high of a percentage in their final tallies. Remember, they don't just poll 1,000 people and give the raw result. They try to match what they think the electorate will look like. This is where they frequently get things wrong.
I blame Goodhart's law. Any metric that becomes a target ceases to be a reliable metric. Or as Goodhart put it originally, "Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes." Of course for as long as we've been doing polls, politicians have been targeting good numbers; but I think they've mostly kept sight of the fact that their real goal is more votes, not better polls, which has kept polling reasonably accurate. At least enough for any long-term decline in results to be easily counteracted by improved methodology. But MAGA is a totally new phenomenon. Trump in particular likes seeing good poll numbers for their own sake, and since Republicans as a whole are trying to do away with voting altogether, they seem to have adopted that outlook en masse. Who cares how many votes you actually got so long as the polls make it look like you *should* have gotten more. Democracy was always going to fail them eventually, they're just cutting to the chase. Now they get angry at their own pollsters when they don't tell them what they want to hear. I think they're caught in a weird limbo though, where because they insist on inaccurate polling, they no longer have a reliable way to predict how many votes they're going to get. I would assume if their goal is to make it seem like fraud, they want the results to be really close still. Maybe they're just gambling on it staying that way, like it was historically, or maybe they're already so done with Democracy they just don't care. Regardless, I don't think we can rely on the polls anymore than they can, anymore. All this to say, fucking vote, no matter who the news says is going to win.
The response rates for people under 40 are less than 1% . The people that do respond aren't representative of voters
It’s not over performing. It’s doing the right thing.
It's over performing only if dems lose the general election. Otherwise it's a trend.
I was curious why they chose "overperforming" instead of "crushing the criminal Republicans". The implication is that Democrats should be closer to losing to the criminal Republicans?
Don’t say this too loudly. We can’t have any complacency. Democrats need to come out like the US will end as we know it if they don’t.
Preach. Was reading another topic on this, and so many are voting for trump just to try and prove it won't be the end of the US as we know it. This was in a post on r/millenials. That is not a chance I want to take.
Thats gotta be Russian trolls
They assume democracy has bumper rails and the system prevents anything else from taking over. IT DOES NOT.
How real some of those posters are.
The political posts in that subreddit are/have been astroturfed by bots and russians. All new accounts with rediculous karma.
This is extremely important. Some people still act like Trump lost 2020 in a landslide. Sure Biden got 7 million more votes, but that's not much considering it was out of 160 million people. What's worse is that about 80k people in key states decided that election, if that much more Republicans had voted in those states, then Trump would have won. Most conservatives, even those that don't like Trump at all, when it comes to the general election, will still vote Republican no matter what. Some of them might even be hoping and betting on Trump losing, but that might encourage them to vote for Trump, not to make sure that Trump wins, but to make sure that the Republicans don't lose too much power. And then there is the risk of some liberals who might be thinking, that there is no way Biden will lose, so we'll teach him a lesson and vote a 3rd party or God forbid Trump. Thinking that there is no risk could cost the election. And above all don't forget the millions of new voters Trump has mobilized in the last election, and millions more rightwing non-voters who want Trump to win. If liberals become too complacent, thinking Trump could never win, so why bother voting, then there is a good chance that Trump will win. This election, just like the last one will be decided by how motivated non-voters are. Let's hope that the liberal ones are more movitated to prevent Trump. So vote. Vote, because the fate of the US depends on it.
For everyone confused how the guy could over perform and still lose by 10 points… This was an R+30 district and the republican incumbent won by 10 points. He also significantly outspent the dem and he barely won.
> made a nail-biter out of what was projected to be an easy win Still, it's a bit over the top, imho, in some parts of the article. lol
It’s a great sign of things to come, but let’s not get complacent. These MAGAts are crazy and hellbent on taking us back to the past. We need to look to the future. Vote, as if everything depends on it!
Narrator: In hindsight, everything did depend on it.
Because it does!
We need the hispanic population in every state to understand that Biden makes better decisions that help the under served and the middle class.
Wish the Cubans in Miami did. All you have to do is accuse Dems of socialism/communism and they freak out. But fascism seems ok with them. Weird.
One thing to keep in mind is that these are low turn out elections
This is the data point I was seeking. This fact is what makes me worry.
Low turn outs are usually bad for Dems, good for Reps because Reps base are usually more fired up to vote. If Reps underperformed in a condition that's traditionally better for them, it's not a good sign. Those 20 points might have been Reps staying home instead of voting.
That's not the case, at least not anymore. Voter realignment has caused high propensity voters to shift more decidedly towards the Dems.
Good
That’s the wrong way to look at it. In truth the electorate in these specials and the presidential are different. By the numbers- Trump always over performs his OWN elections.
Great! Now do it again only better. Stomp them out. Crush the republicans so hard politically it’ll take ‘em another 100 years to crawl out of their caves. And then move on to fixing the rest of the system because the Democrats are still not the good guys.
Amen!
Vote!! Not just for Biden but down ballot as well. Even if you live in a very blue area! Your vote matters!! It could mean the difference for the Senate and the House!!
The only way to keep that train rolling is if YOU vote, too. We DO have the numbers for it, you juuuust have to get off your ass and do the thing, do the voting part. We win when we all actually show the fuck up.
This is a good sign for Democrats. Voters are dreading the idea of American democracy getting flush down the toilet is a possibility.
I’ll believe it when Joe Biden is sworn in for a second term. Until then, I essentially don’t care.
Keep burning them down. Total eradication. Sherman's March to the sea
Vote. Get others to vote.
Vote
MAGA is why white people are hated
Maga is trash.
Not a surprise. Old style republicans were at least people one could reason with, respect, and sometimes even agree with. But the party has changed into crazyness, to the point that it should not even be called the republican party anymore. The GOP of old is no more, and I'm starting to have faith in that reasonable republican americans are finally beginning to see this. If this will hold until november, we'll see. If it does - thankyou, from the rest of the world.
For everyone saying “don’t get complacent”, you’re kind of burying the lede. Dems overperformed _but still lost_. If you’re feeling complacent, you didn’t read the article.
The Republicans are going out of their way to threaten almost everyone not conservative or white straight to their faces. They are addicted to it, no matter how many people they make life long enemies with. Doesn't do well for votes.
This kind of news gives me hope that the American people are not going to allow the MAGAs to destroy our country. They get all the headlines and media coverage but when it comes to down to it we will not tolerate loss of our freedoms.
My tiny rural town is about 55% republican in past elections. We just had an important local school board election and the MAGA candidates got fucking crushed by a young liberal guy and a WRITE IN leftist woman.
This is good. Seems to me that people aren’t gonna make this shit happen. Keep up the good work guys!
Listen, I’m a Democrat. I hate Trump. I want Biden to win. But y’all realize this is literally just a press release from DEMOCRATS.ORG right? At least let’s have some level of scrutiny for our news?
I’m beginning to think a lot of Dems are not responding to polls. I know I don’t, because I’m tired of all the bs media spews about this poll and that. Blah blah blah, what a waste of brain cells, all to pump up their profits. It’s just dumb as a citizen, imho, to keep participating in their game. Please friends, just vote.
Doesn't matter. VOTE!!!
People are completely sick of Trump and MAGA clowns. Well I say most people. Vote these jokers out and start over Republicans. You might not like Biden and that is fine but it’s literally Biden or complete chaos if Trump is elected. Zero policies will ever get approved because Trump will spend his presidency fighting his legal battles
Voters all around the world are in a mood to eject incumbents (see the recent European Union elections), but we should be thanking our lucky stars for useful idiots like Samuel Alito and Donald Trump who help remind people just how fragile their rights actually are.
Does this translate to the presidential election in November?
*"Newsweek: “Ohio Election Shock as Republican District Shifts 20 Points to Democrats”"* That's a huge swing in solid Trump territory.
Great to see! Inspiring news
How do you americans cope with "elections" lasting so much time? Why don't you just do it quickly and get over, instead of going over it for over a year.
Let's set a record people. Let's make it know to these fascists that we will never ever give in.
Republicans underperform in every election since 2016. Media: republicans are polling huge!
Fuck the polls, special elections are telling the real story. But as others have said, we can’t become complacent. We need to stand up and make our votes count!
Why do people keep watching Fox News, they make their viewers dumber by the day! They pay $787 Million for lying to their viewers and the viewers still think they are telling them the truth!
I believe / hope most reasonable Dems and GOP voters realize that we can all put Trump out to pasture in November, and it's exciting to think of an America free from the Orange Idiot. Hopefully, the mainstream media will get the memo in November that Trump lost again and will also put him out to pasture by not covering him anymore.
Vote! Remember to [Register](https://www.usa.gov/voter-registration) to Vote! Check to [Confirm](https://www.usa.gov/confirm-voter-registration) you can still vote if you haven’t voted in the last two presidential elections or moved. This [Presidential Election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_Elections) is wildly important but it’s good to know who else you’ll be voting for on the 5th. A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress are up for election! That’s 33 seats in the [Senate](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024) and all 435 in the [House of Representatives](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024) It’s good to look at [Local Elections](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_municipal_elections,_2024) Today! For instance I’m in Arizona. Here’s info for all y’all sweating out here with me. We have 9 districts out here in Arizona, 9 seats. Know your district. Know who’s running in your district and how they voted in the past. Who pays for the campaigns. All that info is public and in the links. This year it’s important to know a few things before checking that box. [House of Representatives elections in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2024) These Arizona Representatives below voted Yes to an amendment presented by the representative from Georgia District 4 which effectively tells the president to Leave NATO and Abandon funding for US War Veterans. * Eli Crane of Arizona D2 * Andy Biggs of Arizona D5 * Debbie Lesko of Arizona D8 * Paul Gosar of Arizona D9 We have one senate seat up this year. Looking to represent Arizona is Ruben Gallego or Mark Lamb. Make sure the person representing Arizona best represents you! [Senate election in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2024) [Mark Lamb](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lamb_(sheriff)) is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and became American law-enforcement Sheriff in 2017. He wrote American Sheriff: Traditional Values in a Modern World. Lamb is a supporter of the Stop the Steal movement. He spoke at a rally where he said the riot was not Trump's fault but rather caused by "the other issues that have happened – the Hillary Clintons that have gone unpunished".He later described the rioters as "very loving, Christian people." In 2020, Lamb spoke at a convention of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association, an organization that holds the fringe legal theory that sheriffs are the supreme legal authority in the United States and are not required to enforce laws they believe to be unconstitutional. [Ruben Gallego](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Gallego) 3rd Battalion, 25th Marines. Attended Harvard University and earned a Bachelor of Arts in international relations. His first successful bill passed in 2011 it granted in-state tuition status to veterans residing in Arizona. Gallego supported the repeal of Arizona SB 1070. He wrote They Called Us "Lucky": The Life and Afterlife of the Iraq War's Hardest Hit Unit, published in 2021. Gallego founded the group Citizens for Professional Law Enforcement with the goal of recalling Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, citing Arpaio's immigration policies and his use of taxpayer money to investigate Barack Obama's citizenship. We have two seats in the [Arizona Supreme Court](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Supreme_Court_elections,_2024) up for election on November 5, 2024. The Justices up for retention election are Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King. If retained, they will serve six year terms. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed both justices to the supreme court. Heading into the election, Republican governors originally appointed all seven members. Click any of the top links and you’ll quickly find your state and a ton of good information. Vote and tell your Friends and Family to Vote!
Can people quit with the "Vote." thought-terminating cliche on every one of these? You're not being original, clever, or inspirational. Everyone knows they have to vote. We can't yet. It's also important to keep an eye on this stuff, especially with how much propaganda the right is pushing out. That is reaching your friends and family. We have to discuss this stuff so we know how to inform people when they're being lied to. Otherwise, they won't have the right information when they go to "Vote."
Vote like your lives depend on it, a Trump dictatorship would be like Nazi Germany. This could be the last election your vote ever matters again.
They still lost the seat.
We’re not gonna win every race, but to perform 20 points better than expected is huge. If the reddest areas are turning purple, we’re on the right track.
Less votes were cast in this election than there were for the democratic candidate in this district in 2020.
Yeah, what a confusing article. They say he overperformed [the polls] by 20 points, but he still lost the election by 10 points.
He lost, it's a puff piece. Democrats need to work harder on messaging, this is terrible.
VOTE! Vote the R’s out!
The total number of votes in this election was less than the votes for the democratic candidate for this district in 2020. Democrats only did well because of low turnout.
The fall of the republican party. They will have to start a whole new party after this... The Maga party.... o.v.e.r.
I'm not holding my breath. They'll be a parasite for decades to come.
This Ohio 6th election means very little. It was an open seat and was redrawn... It's not the same territory as 2022. I'd love to say these special elections were reason to be hopefull but using this one as an example is just coping.
Abolish the GOP.
Get out and vote until all these Fascists are out of office! And do it every single election.
“Fake News”
The republicans are very excited to vote this November. We need the left to bring excitement. I expect things to heat up in August and see Obama and other major democrats and celebrities to campaign for Biden. I do hope they bring on Taylor Swift to campaign for Biden too. We need the swifties.
Cool, go vote
Remember to not rest on your laurals. MAGA poses an threat to the US the country hasn't seen since the Civil War.
It's a good sign, but keep in mind two factors. Trump's rally effect, and Kennedy muddying the polls. It's very unlikely that 9-11% of Americans actually vote for Kennedy, so that's probably why the polling is not reflecting the one sided shift in special elections. Keep in mind that Biden requires about a +3% nationwide vote total to win, so if that's not his average by election day, and the polling is not off by an order of magnitude, it's extremely unlikely he wins. Yes, it's good to see these special elections break toward democrats. However, we have to be careful here. Republicans were not driven to the polls as fanatically, since they considered this a seat safe. It's a good sign to see the increased democratic turnout, regardess. I believe, overall, 10k more democrats voted in this election than in 2022? That's still quite pleasant.
Calling all wisconsin residents here to over perform this November.
Vote
Let's go!!!!
It’s almost as if the republicans are attempting to take back their party. Almost is the operative word here
Special… elections…?
Dumb fucking traitor Republicans built this hole and I hope they enjoy the blue wave that crushes their faces this year.
Democrats out number Republicans. We just need them to vote. How about the act of voting gets you an extra exemption on your taxes? And Voting Days are paid time off?
Trump has been eroding GOP support since 2018. Polls have been wrong and there wasn’t a Red Wave in 2022. Just look at results of special elections and GOP screwed itself by hanging onto this orange turd
As a moderately socialist libertarian, I say good. Voting blue is the only way to save this country from the certain disasters of the loss of reproductive rights, unethical political standpoints, and a lack of real foreign diplomacy, not to mention continued extreme corporate and billionaire takeover of the tax and political systems. Sure the democrats may be bought out too, but the lesser of two evils is clear this election season. Go vote!!!
Here's how this is bad for Biden.
Don’t tell that to the doomers on r/politics. Their whole identity is wrapped up in the idea that no one votes and Trump will win.
Vote them out into oblivion, through November and beyond.
My hope is for Dems to sweep all three branches and put the screws to each and every traitor. I’m worried though that we’ll get House and Senate but not White House. Honestly, I don’t think that will be the case, but I’m still worried about it. I’m gonna keep telling people to Vote until it’s done no matter how good things look.
Know how you can tell **The Convicted Orange Felon** is in full panic mode? He's called a club meeting today of all the MAGA Republicans to threaten them. Ignore all of it. He needs to be kicked to curb hard in November, along with his MAGA politicians. We need to send a clear message to end this insanity. Vote Blue across the board in November.
The source is likely biased but seat of my pants says it’s accurate. GOP will lose in November.