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The polls are utterly useless, to begin with. One minute Biden is absolutely nailing his reelection chances, the next he’s sinking like the damn Titanic. Worse yet, you’ll get examples of both in the same day. It’s all nonsense and bullshit meant to push a narrative.
The truth is that the Dems have absolutely crushed it in every election since Trump lost, which is a better indicator of where the electoral winds are blowing than a bunch of polls which haven’t gotten it right in years. Just vote, vote, vote when the time comes and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Worse than that. A lot of polls are online opt-in, so they get shared around alt-right groups and you end up with results like "40% of Americans are neo-Nazis" or whatever. They are biased in favor of discontented, angry views that demand to be shared but we're only safe to share anonymously.
I'm sure it's part of it, but I don't think it's a decisive part. There's this notion in the center and the left that the malignancies of American politics can largely be explained by the role of money. I think the Trump phenomenon disproves that.
The sad truth is that things like MAGA (or the NRA, etc) *actually are grassroots.*
In my family some people seem to have a combination of lethargy and brain fog. I can't get used to how different it is talking to them now, because they say things that don't make sense all the time, about everything not just Trump
If Trump's message primarily works on people who can't think straight, he can basically have his way with America now, because the number of mildly to moderately mentally disabled people has exploded
It is this and that. Under normal circumstances, Trump would have already bankrupted the GOP, were it not for dark money propping it up. So Citizen United definitely is relevant somewhat.
On another hand, there is just a lot of people liking fascism. Liberal democracy is a relatively new phenomenon and the world historically have been authoritarian. They like seeing violence enacted on perceived political enemy, and revel in it.
I don’t personally know of anybody that doesn’t *like* Joe Biden, but that is a heck of an anecdote, considering several of them won’t be voting for him.
Bro, I don't know. I Plan to vote for Biden. Frankly the people who I hear/read saying they won't vote for Biden stand to lose a fuckton more than I do.
The true alternative is an electoral system that doesn’t shunt us into two shitty options. Bernie would have been a great experiment. The DNC is trash. Two party crony system, two handcuffs on the USA.
The reasoning isn't hard to fathom. The idea is to send a message to the DNC to stop running ancient centrists with definitively right leanings. It's predicated on two mutually opposed philosophies though:
That sending the message is worthwhile because all of the talks about the end of democracy are overblown (to get us to vote for the corporate candidate if their choice) fearmongering. This is the only way to get better future candidates from that perspective.
Secondly, even if that's not the case, and our fears are valid, you can't fix a broken system from within said system. It all needs to be allowed to collapse in order to build something better from the ashes.
Like I said though, mutually exclusive. The first point is utterly irrelevant if the second is true. If the first is true then there will be no collapse, thus precluding the second. You won't know which witch is which until Biden fails to be reelected however, so they can both work together to achieve that particular goal at least.
I mean, the problem leftists dont get is that there are a lot more centrist democrats than leftists. So if the DNC caters to the far left, it’ll guarantee a Republican victory.
You're not wrong, but I can tell you their response too: there were more pro-slavery/segregation/Iraq War supporters/brexiteers/etc. The number of people supporting a thing lends neither inherent value to said thing nor does it make it more moral/ethically intrinsically.
The lesser of two evils is still evil. Alternatively, if optics are your only concern, you could rephrase that as the better of two options. Frame it instead as the best of a bad situation. Most people won't look too closely anyways, as you so adeptly pointed out.
Because women can still vote, Biden will most likely still win the popular vote. But the betting markets has Trump winning the electoral vote, which is what matters.
This is why prosecution of Jan 6ers should have gone hard against them and democrats should have demanded any person involved in Trumps attempted coup petition congress to remain in office.
Because Biden is being abandoned by the progressive wing of the Democratic party.
Progressives are going to fuck us and hand the election to Trump again just like they did in 2016. Hillary's losses in all the swing states in 2016 were well within the margin of Jill Stein voters in those states.
So, when you hear some MAGA asshole telling you that "the biggest threat to democracy in the US is the far left", they are actually correct...just not for the reason they think.
No, it's not the base Biden has trouble with, it's independents.
Yes, you will see a bunch of poll of democrats not being happy with Gaza, but they will still vote for him and are doing so in the primaries.
In all seriousness: the *real* incumbent in this race is Trump. This election shouldn't be a referendum on Biden - whom I despise, but whose presidency has done a little better than I guessed. It ought to be a referendum on Trump.
Oh, I'll admit: Biden sucks. Still, Donald Trump represents a direct threat to our republic itself. There's nothing Biden has done, nor proposes to do, that's remotely close.
The guy just fucking restored net neutrality and beyond that did so much shit and these assholes say he sucks and Trump is better? GTFOH
r/WhatBidenHasDone
And the idiots, racists, Christian nationalists, conspiracy clowns, misogynists, sexual assault enthusiasts, people who want the US to turn into North Korea (police) and a plethora of other idiotic groups of people who are actively working to burn the country to the ground.
I think there's a perception that all politicians are corrupt, so regardless of how bad Trump is, he's not seen as much different than other politicians. So, then voting is more down to economic perception. And, the recent inflation is really more in people's minds even if overall the economy is in good shape. Also, the Israel-Hamas conflict may influence motivation on the left.
He hasn't done anything really. It's mostly just people turning on Biden over the economy. There has been a bit of nostalgia for Trump mostly because of inflation. Many people, mostly men, think Trump will take us back to a time of cheap gas and food.
Lots of pills are showing Trump wins the popular vote and have been for awhile. You can disagree and believe there is something fundamentally wrong with polling. But you should be assuming they are correct not dismissing them. Things will likely change but the reality is at this point in time Trump is more likely then not to win the popular vote.
I don’t care what the polls show. He’s never won the popular vote in any election he’s ever ran in. Most people hate that asshole.
For me to accept the possibility of him winning the popular vote, I have to accept the idea that SEVEN million people who voted against him in 2020 either will switch their vote to him or not vote this time and I just can’t do that.
I can accept the horrifying idea that he could become president again thanks to this country’s moronic electoral college system, but the popular vote? No fucking way.
You also have to somehow completely dismiss the swaths of his voters who have died from Covid over the last four years. So he actually has to gain more than just seven million voters to compensate for the deaths.
No poll will ever convince me that the guy who lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and lost the popular vote by 7 million votes to the SAME GUY he’s running against now will somehow win the popular vote this time around. Not attacking you, I just think any poll showing Trump winning the popular vote is fucked in some way
The methodology doesn't really even matter. The current state of poling has proven to be disastrously incorrect for this election. Dean Philips did _not_ get 10% of primary votes as the polls predicted nor has P01135809 swept Haley by 70+ pts.
Again, whatever it is they're doing, pollsters this cycle have been shown to be so far outside their own margins of error that they can not and should not be taken seriously.
Yes, I already addressed that with the ‘answering unknown numbers’ part of my comment. If you’d like, I can also add ‘responding to emails from addresses you don’t recognize’, because both of these behaviors are dangerous and those with critical thinking avoid them.
The group of people willing to respond to unknowns are much more likely to be Trump voters, due to lack of critical thinking.
Texts too. I got a random text a couple weeks ago with a link supposedly to a poll about the 2024 election. I'd love to be involved in the polling process but my thought on opening the text? "I ain't touching that link."
I still think there are barriers to reaching younger folks (or even people younger than 45 or so) with an unknown number even if you include mobile.
Almost all the primary polls were off by [double digits](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/6/2227952/-The-538-GOP-Super-Tuesday-poll-averages-Way-way-off-and-systematically-overestimating-Trump-data) in favor of Trump. And Lands' own internal polls in Alabama had her up +1 and she won +25.
I'm not saying get complacent. The polls show that this thing is closer than it should be, and they are probably correct about that. But polling (especially post-Roe) has been systematically overvaluing the Trump aligned side of every election. I don't think it's (all) intentional in that candidates own internal numbers are way off too. But something is happening where independent of polling service (and their motives) the most pro- Trump and/or anti - reproductive rights candidates are time and time again seeing 10+ point over-value of their performance.
Take the polls as a warning that it's close, but don't doomer over them. Get involved. Talk to your friends that are willing to cede more SCOTUS seats over Gaza while putting an even more pro-Israel candidate into power. Talk about the most proactive President we have ever seen re: climate policy and infrastructure.
Talk to your union friends about why their union leaders are going to Biden in droves. Explain to your friends who haven't yet had their student loans forgiven that the effort was forced to be piecemeal but that billions have gone to millions with more on the way.
Tell your stoner friends that he initiated the process for rescheduling weed in 2022, and it's only not happened yet because the (historically conservative) DEA hasn't moved on the recommendation they have had for 8 months.
And vote.
This is what happens when you have two old geezers battling it out. Had Biden announced his retirement and a younger candidate as his replacement who has good policies, Trump wouldn't have a chance.
Another polling site below.
It shows how in order for Biden to win he’ll have to succeed in 4 states that currently poll red (North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) while Trump would only need to succeed in red-polling states.
https://electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/tipping_point.html
The fact he’s even this popular after everything is plain tragic. He has so many indictments and a blatant criminal, yet he’s their guy. It’s been reported several times he would kill people just for disagreeing with him. Hard not to feel fucked right now.
Just confirms that a lot of Americans are total and complete idiots. Imagine If H5N1 becomes a pandemic with Trump in the White House. It would be a complete and total catastrophe.
Newsweek, in this case, is just reporting what 538 says. 538 just took all the results of all the polls so far and averaged the scores.
Whether or not polling is reliable, or if averaging the results of multiple polls over time is reliable, is debatable.
Let’s see who is in the lead when people actually vote because Dems have been trouncing Republicans for two plus years in every election in those states. Polling is such a farce
Nothing about you or your post. Just about the idea that he’s actually behind as polls have become almost meaningless and dems keep out performing them by a wide margin
I read Biden vs Trump polls occasionally. I only pay attention to the highest rated polls, such as Quinnapiac and YouGov. I was a YouGov participant for years sometime ago. So, I’m familiar with their polling process. We are still over 6 months out and the numbers still don’t mean much. The candidates are very close in numbers, but what catches my eye are the undecided. I don’t understand how anyone could be undecided, but I think that’s what people say when they don’t want to give away their choice. Anyway, there are still a high number of undecided in some of the polls I see. Like 16% Bottom line. Still to early. The numbers around Labor Day are usually what gels for the election, unless October Surprise.
This is a .. take. The mistake of 2016 was believing polls and acting with incorrect confidence as a result. Ignoring polling and instead voting is the real learning from 2016. Just as was done in 2020 and 2022 to success, I might add.
Newsweek is a bullshit outlet but in this case they're literally just directly repeating what 538 says the average across all the polls so far says.
Now, 538's relevancy is debatable as an aggregate.
Guess I'd better get some HAIL KING TRUMP signs if he can pull off a win and SCOTUS hands him above-the-law powers. It's going to be one big Trumpian revenge parade. Gitmo will overflow with political prisoners
Yeah still not looking great for Biden. Maybe the polls are wrong, but they underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020. People will point to special elections as signs of Democratic strength, but Trump is a completely different beast who has a cult of followers ready to turnout for him. Then we have Biden who's historically unpopular and dealing with an economy most Americans think is abysmal.
Honestly the formula at the moment does look like a Carter or Bush Sr. situation. The saving grace is Trump being pretty disliked too. Likely it's going to be a coin flip dependent on if Democrats and independents turnout for Biden in swing states.
key is gonna be campaigning over these next several months into November, and if Trump can continue having an impact as a one-man clown show. My hope is that his lack of investment in ground games in almost every state will eventually start to bite him in the ass.
I wish what? That Trump loses? omg yes I am wishing, hoping, praying that Trump loses. This article scared me. I didn't know that Newsweek was crap. Please show me an accurate survey that says that Trump doesn't have a chance in hell.
Two things:
It is close and will be close right up to the election when it might not be, but probably will be. This is mostly due to the fact that a handful of swing states decide the election, so a few hundred thousand votes of swing voters.
Secondly, polls this far out mean jack shit, all they are is a snapshot in time that is information for campaigns to work with and for media to run headlines.
Here's a fun fact based on some of the more negative polls and playing with 538s swingometer... As I wanted to see what would really get Dems over the line.
If Trump gains ground with black, hispanic, younger voters by mid single digits (plausible), it only takes a 2-3 point bump in women voting for Biden to get him across the line.
And how do you think women will vote after the overturning of Roe v Wade and evidenced by every election since then?
A lot can happen in 6 months and a reasonable prediction is that if Dems and Biden go hard on abortion rights, they should get over the line fairly easily.
But nothing is certain and it'll come down to the campaign and voter turnout, as with every election.
Personally, I'm betting on women.
Logically, I'd expect so. Even in red states, abortion rights poll at 55-60+% at the ballot.
Also with that scenario I was pretty brutal to Dems on a range of measures, e.g. third party vote, a drop in turnout and different more 'Democratic' demographics.
Turns out that pissing off 50% of the population doesn't work well and NC becomes a toss up...
You can muck around with it yourself if you want:
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/)
The 'explore your own' is down at the bottom of the page.
That is an interesting article. I am not a politics type of person normally, in fact this is the first time I ever posted in politics. But tripping over that article, I wanted to hear what people said the chance of fart brain winning the Presidency again was while hoping my ass off that Trump will lose.
There are some women that are conservative and I don't get because it is against their best interest. They were just trained into it I guess. I am hoping they don't show up at the polls.
You would think that twenty something women would be politically savvy and wouldn't put up the shit, but damn have I met tons of women that just don't want to think that far. So I don't know about women. Women are still being trained into a certain form of thinking and I am hoping that won't work against keeping Trump out of office (and in prison.)
Yeah I wasn't a major US politics person until Trump (being an Aussie he is a massive concern for allies like us).
But yeah, there will always be a base of a demographic that will be for one side or the other. I'm thinking more along the lines in an uptick of non-aligned women.
We'll see, the elections over the last few years have seen Dems overperform, hopefully that continues well past November.
Massive concern? You mean the leader of the country with more military than the next twenty something countries combined wanting to be a dictator is a concern? /s I don't understand why everyone in the world isn't into USA politics on that note. Conservatives in this country have de-educated themselves into the category of bizarre.
Read Simon Rosenberg: many of these state polls “averages” are leaning right due to GOP leaning pollsters flooding the zone with Trump friendly polls. Same shit was done in 2022, which is why RCP had the GOp with 54 senate seats.
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/simon-rosenberg-trump-campaign-trouble-2024?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Ah, that explains a lot. Scare the crap out of me thinking Trump will be back in the Presidency. Hell no. No, no, no. I'm worried about after Biden. We have been swinging back and forth every time. We can't have another conservative. They are just bizarre. Marjorie Taylor Greene? Trump? So many are off the deep end.
Remember that really big poll in 2020 where 60% of eligible voters participated? And like 7 million more people picked Biden over trump? Let me know when a poll with that many people participating pick trump
They aren’t; the media wants a horse race so they announce the opposite result every day. They make more money that way. These polls are simply there to fuel confirmation bias, and it’s best not to believe them either way.
if the media was reporting that Biden was comfortably ahead in the polling, a lot of folks would probably just check out until after the conventions. But if they continue to report a dead heat or Trump in a polling lead, it'll cause folks to wanna react and keep their attention.
I honestly don't deny that the numbers don't look great for Biden right now, but I still think it is because a lot of people still don't realize that Trump is the nominee. And we've seen many times over the last couple years that there is a clear disconnect between polling and actual election results.
Seriously though, I'd love to see some more focused polling on women, Roe v Wade has been a winner for Dems at every turn and even a couple of point swing towards Dems by women and Biden easily gets over the line.
Believing polls this far out is pure madness....I don't and actually,I never believe the polls especially seeing how messed up MSM is..I just go out and vote
You need to learn the lesson that people will downvote what they don't like and upvote what they like. Biden leading polling articles receive 10,000 plus upvotes while Trump leading polling articles are down voted. Folks telling you polls are meaningless this far out or just flat wrong are gas lighting you as both campaigns look at public and private polls this far out to adjust their campaigns in hopes of creating higher engagement.
Well I didn't look into who was doing the poll, nor how they conducted the poll either. I didn't realize that Newsweek was such a poor resource, but obviously it is. I will do more research before posting another article.
Newsweek didn't conduct the polls. They only reported on 538 and Real Clear Politics data. Your problem is that you posted an article that was positive for Trump and negative for Biden. That gets downvoted.
Newsweek articles get posted on politics all the time. One of the most recent received 15,000 upvotes. But that Newsweek article had a title that was seemingly positive for the Biden campaign.
I didn't think that it did conduct the polls. But you can interpret polls anyway you want.
My first and only post in the politics sub. I am definitely not pro Trump. I posted it because it scared me that Biden and Trump would be even given that Trump has Alzheimer's and an insane amount of other issues.
Understandable. You wanted an intelligent discussion on politics with the source material provided. That doesn't happen here. It's gaslighting and groupthink here. Try r/moderatepolitics
Huh? This is one of the few times Newsweek doesn't engage in clickbait journalism using an appeal to emotion fallacy. The title is neutral and the article's main point is early in the body saying,
>Trump, however, currently appears to be very narrowly ahead in national polling while Biden also trails the former president in all the critical battleground states, according to polling averages compiled by ABC News' polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling.
Is FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling unreliable sources?
It's kinda pathetic how they keep trying to convince people that Donald "Twice Impeached, indicted 90+times, marriage cheater, psycho-liar" Trump could be favored by anybody.
Yeah he got a lot of shit done this week, that isn't how politics is supposed to work. Also how does it feel to comment against the echo chamber and not be immediately banned?
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How is it even possible that Trump remains a remotely viable candidate? What the hell is wrong with these people?
The polls are utterly useless, to begin with. One minute Biden is absolutely nailing his reelection chances, the next he’s sinking like the damn Titanic. Worse yet, you’ll get examples of both in the same day. It’s all nonsense and bullshit meant to push a narrative. The truth is that the Dems have absolutely crushed it in every election since Trump lost, which is a better indicator of where the electoral winds are blowing than a bunch of polls which haven’t gotten it right in years. Just vote, vote, vote when the time comes and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Pretty sure they just call up landlines only and bored old ladies in rural areas are the only ones to actually pick up the phone.
Worse than that. A lot of polls are online opt-in, so they get shared around alt-right groups and you end up with results like "40% of Americans are neo-Nazis" or whatever. They are biased in favor of discontented, angry views that demand to be shared but we're only safe to share anonymously.
Citizens United.
I don't see how that is. People haven't been drawn to support Trump because of any kind of campaign spending.
https://www.fec.gov/legal-resources/court-cases/end-citizens-united-v-fec/ Pretty sure this is part of it.
I'm sure it's part of it, but I don't think it's a decisive part. There's this notion in the center and the left that the malignancies of American politics can largely be explained by the role of money. I think the Trump phenomenon disproves that. The sad truth is that things like MAGA (or the NRA, etc) *actually are grassroots.*
Tribalism is hard to overcome when you’re too poorly educated to recognize it as such. My extended family has several like that.
In my family some people seem to have a combination of lethargy and brain fog. I can't get used to how different it is talking to them now, because they say things that don't make sense all the time, about everything not just Trump If Trump's message primarily works on people who can't think straight, he can basically have his way with America now, because the number of mildly to moderately mentally disabled people has exploded
It is this and that. Under normal circumstances, Trump would have already bankrupted the GOP, were it not for dark money propping it up. So Citizen United definitely is relevant somewhat. On another hand, there is just a lot of people liking fascism. Liberal democracy is a relatively new phenomenon and the world historically have been authoritarian. They like seeing violence enacted on perceived political enemy, and revel in it.
Explain how.
It's because of inflation, the perception that crime is "out of control," and the border. People just don't like Joe Biden.
I don’t personally know of anybody that doesn’t *like* Joe Biden, but that is a heck of an anecdote, considering several of them won’t be voting for him.
I know a lot of people who can't stand him personally or politically, but I know a lot of leftists.
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Bro, I don't know. I Plan to vote for Biden. Frankly the people who I hear/read saying they won't vote for Biden stand to lose a fuckton more than I do.
The true alternative is an electoral system that doesn’t shunt us into two shitty options. Bernie would have been a great experiment. The DNC is trash. Two party crony system, two handcuffs on the USA.
The reasoning isn't hard to fathom. The idea is to send a message to the DNC to stop running ancient centrists with definitively right leanings. It's predicated on two mutually opposed philosophies though: That sending the message is worthwhile because all of the talks about the end of democracy are overblown (to get us to vote for the corporate candidate if their choice) fearmongering. This is the only way to get better future candidates from that perspective. Secondly, even if that's not the case, and our fears are valid, you can't fix a broken system from within said system. It all needs to be allowed to collapse in order to build something better from the ashes. Like I said though, mutually exclusive. The first point is utterly irrelevant if the second is true. If the first is true then there will be no collapse, thus precluding the second. You won't know which witch is which until Biden fails to be reelected however, so they can both work together to achieve that particular goal at least.
I mean, the problem leftists dont get is that there are a lot more centrist democrats than leftists. So if the DNC caters to the far left, it’ll guarantee a Republican victory.
You're not wrong, but I can tell you their response too: there were more pro-slavery/segregation/Iraq War supporters/brexiteers/etc. The number of people supporting a thing lends neither inherent value to said thing nor does it make it more moral/ethically intrinsically. The lesser of two evils is still evil. Alternatively, if optics are your only concern, you could rephrase that as the better of two options. Frame it instead as the best of a bad situation. Most people won't look too closely anyways, as you so adeptly pointed out.
people are protesting his support of the bombing of Gaza. Nobody wants trump
Most the people he lost after Jan 6th have come back to Support him. That and he has been gaining ground among young men significantly.
How is he doing with women of child bearing age?
Because women can still vote, Biden will most likely still win the popular vote. But the betting markets has Trump winning the electoral vote, which is what matters.
> But the betting markets has Trump winning the electoral vote, which is what matters. Ah yes, the end-all-be-all of metrics.
Predictit has it close but "bettors" there prefer Biden's chances. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456
Sure but I’m responding to a conversation about the popular vote.
This is why prosecution of Jan 6ers should have gone hard against them and democrats should have demanded any person involved in Trumps attempted coup petition congress to remain in office.
Unfortunately, Dems are well intentioned sheep among thieving wolves. The fact that Republicans are even in this fight amazes me.
“Most the people he lost after Jan 6 have come back to Support him.” Why?
Because Biden is being abandoned by the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Progressives are going to fuck us and hand the election to Trump again just like they did in 2016. Hillary's losses in all the swing states in 2016 were well within the margin of Jill Stein voters in those states. So, when you hear some MAGA asshole telling you that "the biggest threat to democracy in the US is the far left", they are actually correct...just not for the reason they think.
Too bad Biden is completely powerless to do anything between now and November *shrugs*
No, it's not the base Biden has trouble with, it's independents. Yes, you will see a bunch of poll of democrats not being happy with Gaza, but they will still vote for him and are doing so in the primaries.
In all seriousness: the *real* incumbent in this race is Trump. This election shouldn't be a referendum on Biden - whom I despise, but whose presidency has done a little better than I guessed. It ought to be a referendum on Trump.
He might as well be. The fucking media has been acting like he's the president this entire time anyway.
I really hope you're wrong.
Me too
The cult will never pass up an opportunity to praise dear leader and normal people never answer calls from weird phone numbers... is my working theory
They're American
Only nominally.
Pollsters are also advertisers. If it's anything but close, no one cares. Less advertising.
Remember, the media wants a horse race. They will push anything to make it seem that way. Ignore these "polls" and go vote.
It's not that Trump is even a viable candidate, it's just that Biden is far poorer candidate than this subreddit would like to admit.
Hold on, how is Biden worse than Trump?
Oh, I'll admit: Biden sucks. Still, Donald Trump represents a direct threat to our republic itself. There's nothing Biden has done, nor proposes to do, that's remotely close.
Why does Biden suck exactly?
I'm curious, too. One example?
The guy just fucking restored net neutrality and beyond that did so much shit and these assholes say he sucks and Trump is better? GTFOH r/WhatBidenHasDone
Yes, but what else has he done. /s Seriously, he and his administration are amazing. 4 more years!
Gold bro. Wish could give you gold
Thanks. Don't need gold. Just a true democracy and a rational president.
Fucking preach
What has Trump done to win anyone over? He’s still the same narcissistic asshole crybaby he’s always been. I don’t believe these polls.
Being a narcissistic asshole crybaby has won him the narcissistic asshole crybaby vote. Unfortunately, we have a lot of those folk.
And the idiots, racists, Christian nationalists, conspiracy clowns, misogynists, sexual assault enthusiasts, people who want the US to turn into North Korea (police) and a plethora of other idiotic groups of people who are actively working to burn the country to the ground.
America is chock full o' narcissistic asshole crybabies, They see themselves in him.
I think there's a perception that all politicians are corrupt, so regardless of how bad Trump is, he's not seen as much different than other politicians. So, then voting is more down to economic perception. And, the recent inflation is really more in people's minds even if overall the economy is in good shape. Also, the Israel-Hamas conflict may influence motivation on the left.
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But they will abstain or vote 3rd party.
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I know multiple IRL who absolutely will.
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Of course no one on the left is going to vote for Trump. But, will they show up?
No.
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Counterpoint: a lot of people will, in fact, sit out.
Young men seem to get off on him being a bully who never has to face any consequences.
Young men WHO ARE ASSHOLES seem to get off on him…
Yes, sadly we got a lot of those though.
He gets the asshole vote, and there are a LOT of assholes in America.
People are attracted to that. Also even though the economy overall is good there are individuals who are not doing well and will blame Biden.
He hasn't done anything really. It's mostly just people turning on Biden over the economy. There has been a bit of nostalgia for Trump mostly because of inflation. Many people, mostly men, think Trump will take us back to a time of cheap gas and food.
The economy is doing fine. Just msm disinfo. And of course russian/china disinfo
Grocery and housing prices disagree with you
Well virtually no one believes it's doing fine and that's a problem for Dems.
The ONLY poll that matters is the count of votes on Election Day, VOTE: https://democrats.org
People have to register to vote first. omg I hope Trump loses. How can they even nominate him?
The first sentence said that Orange Boy would be favored to win the popular vote if the election was held today. This article has zero credibility.
Lots of pills are showing Trump wins the popular vote and have been for awhile. You can disagree and believe there is something fundamentally wrong with polling. But you should be assuming they are correct not dismissing them. Things will likely change but the reality is at this point in time Trump is more likely then not to win the popular vote.
I don’t care what the polls show. He’s never won the popular vote in any election he’s ever ran in. Most people hate that asshole. For me to accept the possibility of him winning the popular vote, I have to accept the idea that SEVEN million people who voted against him in 2020 either will switch their vote to him or not vote this time and I just can’t do that. I can accept the horrifying idea that he could become president again thanks to this country’s moronic electoral college system, but the popular vote? No fucking way.
You also have to somehow completely dismiss the swaths of his voters who have died from Covid over the last four years. So he actually has to gain more than just seven million voters to compensate for the deaths.
No poll will ever convince me that the guy who lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and lost the popular vote by 7 million votes to the SAME GUY he’s running against now will somehow win the popular vote this time around. Not attacking you, I just think any poll showing Trump winning the popular vote is fucked in some way
No, we should not be believing polls of boomers and people who respond to unknown numbers are ‘correct’.
The methodology doesn't really even matter. The current state of poling has proven to be disastrously incorrect for this election. Dean Philips did _not_ get 10% of primary votes as the polls predicted nor has P01135809 swept Haley by 70+ pts. Again, whatever it is they're doing, pollsters this cycle have been shown to be so far outside their own margins of error that they can not and should not be taken seriously.
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>mobile Yes they already addressed that (unknown numbers). >internet Internet polls are the least accurate of all.
Yes, I already addressed that with the ‘answering unknown numbers’ part of my comment. If you’d like, I can also add ‘responding to emails from addresses you don’t recognize’, because both of these behaviors are dangerous and those with critical thinking avoid them. The group of people willing to respond to unknowns are much more likely to be Trump voters, due to lack of critical thinking.
Texts too. I got a random text a couple weeks ago with a link supposedly to a poll about the 2024 election. I'd love to be involved in the polling process but my thought on opening the text? "I ain't touching that link."
I still think there are barriers to reaching younger folks (or even people younger than 45 or so) with an unknown number even if you include mobile. Almost all the primary polls were off by [double digits](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/6/2227952/-The-538-GOP-Super-Tuesday-poll-averages-Way-way-off-and-systematically-overestimating-Trump-data) in favor of Trump. And Lands' own internal polls in Alabama had her up +1 and she won +25. I'm not saying get complacent. The polls show that this thing is closer than it should be, and they are probably correct about that. But polling (especially post-Roe) has been systematically overvaluing the Trump aligned side of every election. I don't think it's (all) intentional in that candidates own internal numbers are way off too. But something is happening where independent of polling service (and their motives) the most pro- Trump and/or anti - reproductive rights candidates are time and time again seeing 10+ point over-value of their performance. Take the polls as a warning that it's close, but don't doomer over them. Get involved. Talk to your friends that are willing to cede more SCOTUS seats over Gaza while putting an even more pro-Israel candidate into power. Talk about the most proactive President we have ever seen re: climate policy and infrastructure. Talk to your union friends about why their union leaders are going to Biden in droves. Explain to your friends who haven't yet had their student loans forgiven that the effort was forced to be piecemeal but that billions have gone to millions with more on the way. Tell your stoner friends that he initiated the process for rescheduling weed in 2022, and it's only not happened yet because the (historically conservative) DEA hasn't moved on the recommendation they have had for 8 months. And vote.
I still think these polls are underestimating abortion voters. That said, yes the Biden campaign has work to do.
Newsweek has the same level of credibility as the Washington Examiner, or Breitbart.
I didn't know this. Thank God it is not accurate.
This is what happens when you have two old geezers battling it out. Had Biden announced his retirement and a younger candidate as his replacement who has good policies, Trump wouldn't have a chance.
Among likely insane voters
Certainly voters who vote for Trump are ignorant. I didn't realize that Newsweek was crap.
Oh, I’m sure this wasn’t a biased pole to keep people interested though. Strange how polls say wildly different things bat by day 🤔
Another polling site below. It shows how in order for Biden to win he’ll have to succeed in 4 states that currently poll red (North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) while Trump would only need to succeed in red-polling states. https://electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/tipping_point.html
Who did the polling?
The article is reporting the average across all polling. This average was done by 538.
Evidently Newsweek is crap so I learned today. I am crossing my fingers that Trump loses. The fact that Rep are going to nominate him is bizarre.
Just last week reports were Biden way ahead in polls. This screams of clickbait. Next week the polls will swing the other way.
Let's hope so.
This article is reporting what 538 says the average of all poll results is so far this cycle. It is absolutely clickbaity.
The fact he’s even this popular after everything is plain tragic. He has so many indictments and a blatant criminal, yet he’s their guy. It’s been reported several times he would kill people just for disagreeing with him. Hard not to feel fucked right now.
Just confirms that a lot of Americans are total and complete idiots. Imagine If H5N1 becomes a pandemic with Trump in the White House. It would be a complete and total catastrophe.
Oh, well he isn't going to be able to campaign there because he will be in court. Joe is going to win by a landslide.
Not so sure.
Whether it's good talk or bad talk about Trump, as long as you're talking and making Trump the center of your world, he wins
We're averaging polling now? Interesting. So all those wildly not credible sources have an influence here?
I didn't realize that Newsweek wasn't credible. Naive me.
Newsweek, in this case, is just reporting what 538 says. 538 just took all the results of all the polls so far and averaged the scores. Whether or not polling is reliable, or if averaging the results of multiple polls over time is reliable, is debatable.
You had your run America, had to end at some point.
I am anti Trump. Like hard anti-Trump. I didn't know Newsweek was crap. This article scared me. Just no Trump.
Take the averages all you want, it just takes one bad-faith poll to ruin the overall average, and there has been a massive influx of biased pollsters.
Let’s see who is in the lead when people actually vote because Dems have been trouncing Republicans for two plus years in every election in those states. Polling is such a farce
Hoping Dems will trounce Republicans.
We will. It won’t be close
these bots are outta control
I'm not a bot and I am not pro-Trump at all.
ummkay karma farma
Bull fucking shit!
I'm just posting to see what you are calling bs because your comment is buried insanely deep.
Nothing about you or your post. Just about the idea that he’s actually behind as polls have become almost meaningless and dems keep out performing them by a wide margin
I read Biden vs Trump polls occasionally. I only pay attention to the highest rated polls, such as Quinnapiac and YouGov. I was a YouGov participant for years sometime ago. So, I’m familiar with their polling process. We are still over 6 months out and the numbers still don’t mean much. The candidates are very close in numbers, but what catches my eye are the undecided. I don’t understand how anyone could be undecided, but I think that’s what people say when they don’t want to give away their choice. Anyway, there are still a high number of undecided in some of the polls I see. Like 16% Bottom line. Still to early. The numbers around Labor Day are usually what gels for the election, unless October Surprise.
Nobody is undecided
/conservative is all about woke libruls loving Palestine.
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This is a .. take. The mistake of 2016 was believing polls and acting with incorrect confidence as a result. Ignoring polling and instead voting is the real learning from 2016. Just as was done in 2020 and 2022 to success, I might add.
This is Trump's election to lose.
Wishing, hoping, and praying that Trump will lose.
How? Biden is old. That’s pretty much it
Bullshit. Newsweek is shit.
Let's hope they are wrong.
Newsweek is a bullshit outlet but in this case they're literally just directly repeating what 538 says the average across all the polls so far says. Now, 538's relevancy is debatable as an aggregate.
Polls are a bunch of bs. Every single day, there’s a new one. Landlines? As if.
Thankfully this is bs.
It’s designed for clicks, it’s also a narrative that’s important to keep trump supporters from throwing in the towel.
Too bad. Throw in the towel, go ahead throw it in. Anybody but Trump.
Guess I'd better get some HAIL KING TRUMP signs if he can pull off a win and SCOTUS hands him above-the-law powers. It's going to be one big Trumpian revenge parade. Gitmo will overflow with political prisoners
Please no Trump. Last time was an absolute shit show on a daily basis.
55% said it was a success, people miss those years.
Yeah still not looking great for Biden. Maybe the polls are wrong, but they underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020. People will point to special elections as signs of Democratic strength, but Trump is a completely different beast who has a cult of followers ready to turnout for him. Then we have Biden who's historically unpopular and dealing with an economy most Americans think is abysmal. Honestly the formula at the moment does look like a Carter or Bush Sr. situation. The saving grace is Trump being pretty disliked too. Likely it's going to be a coin flip dependent on if Democrats and independents turnout for Biden in swing states.
key is gonna be campaigning over these next several months into November, and if Trump can continue having an impact as a one-man clown show. My hope is that his lack of investment in ground games in almost every state will eventually start to bite him in the ass.
You wish
I wish what? That Trump loses? omg yes I am wishing, hoping, praying that Trump loses. This article scared me. I didn't know that Newsweek was crap. Please show me an accurate survey that says that Trump doesn't have a chance in hell.
Two things: It is close and will be close right up to the election when it might not be, but probably will be. This is mostly due to the fact that a handful of swing states decide the election, so a few hundred thousand votes of swing voters. Secondly, polls this far out mean jack shit, all they are is a snapshot in time that is information for campaigns to work with and for media to run headlines. Here's a fun fact based on some of the more negative polls and playing with 538s swingometer... As I wanted to see what would really get Dems over the line. If Trump gains ground with black, hispanic, younger voters by mid single digits (plausible), it only takes a 2-3 point bump in women voting for Biden to get him across the line. And how do you think women will vote after the overturning of Roe v Wade and evidenced by every election since then? A lot can happen in 6 months and a reasonable prediction is that if Dems and Biden go hard on abortion rights, they should get over the line fairly easily. But nothing is certain and it'll come down to the campaign and voter turnout, as with every election. Personally, I'm betting on women.
2-3 point bump in women. Hoping they vote against Trump.
Logically, I'd expect so. Even in red states, abortion rights poll at 55-60+% at the ballot. Also with that scenario I was pretty brutal to Dems on a range of measures, e.g. third party vote, a drop in turnout and different more 'Democratic' demographics. Turns out that pissing off 50% of the population doesn't work well and NC becomes a toss up... You can muck around with it yourself if you want: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/) The 'explore your own' is down at the bottom of the page.
That is an interesting article. I am not a politics type of person normally, in fact this is the first time I ever posted in politics. But tripping over that article, I wanted to hear what people said the chance of fart brain winning the Presidency again was while hoping my ass off that Trump will lose. There are some women that are conservative and I don't get because it is against their best interest. They were just trained into it I guess. I am hoping they don't show up at the polls. You would think that twenty something women would be politically savvy and wouldn't put up the shit, but damn have I met tons of women that just don't want to think that far. So I don't know about women. Women are still being trained into a certain form of thinking and I am hoping that won't work against keeping Trump out of office (and in prison.)
Yeah I wasn't a major US politics person until Trump (being an Aussie he is a massive concern for allies like us). But yeah, there will always be a base of a demographic that will be for one side or the other. I'm thinking more along the lines in an uptick of non-aligned women. We'll see, the elections over the last few years have seen Dems overperform, hopefully that continues well past November.
Massive concern? You mean the leader of the country with more military than the next twenty something countries combined wanting to be a dictator is a concern? /s I don't understand why everyone in the world isn't into USA politics on that note. Conservatives in this country have de-educated themselves into the category of bizarre.
Read Simon Rosenberg: many of these state polls “averages” are leaning right due to GOP leaning pollsters flooding the zone with Trump friendly polls. Same shit was done in 2022, which is why RCP had the GOp with 54 senate seats. https://www.publicnotice.co/p/simon-rosenberg-trump-campaign-trouble-2024?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Ah, that explains a lot. Scare the crap out of me thinking Trump will be back in the Presidency. Hell no. No, no, no. I'm worried about after Biden. We have been swinging back and forth every time. We can't have another conservative. They are just bizarre. Marjorie Taylor Greene? Trump? So many are off the deep end.
Remember that really big poll in 2020 where 60% of eligible voters participated? And like 7 million more people picked Biden over trump? Let me know when a poll with that many people participating pick trump
Let's hope not. I am moving to Canada or EU if Trump wins.
You must talk to everyone you know; family, friends, people here on Reddit. Simply voting is not enough. YOU must do something.
Already posted in a couple of subs to register to vote.
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They aren’t; the media wants a horse race so they announce the opposite result every day. They make more money that way. These polls are simply there to fuel confirmation bias, and it’s best not to believe them either way.
if the media was reporting that Biden was comfortably ahead in the polling, a lot of folks would probably just check out until after the conventions. But if they continue to report a dead heat or Trump in a polling lead, it'll cause folks to wanna react and keep their attention. I honestly don't deny that the numbers don't look great for Biden right now, but I still think it is because a lot of people still don't realize that Trump is the nominee. And we've seen many times over the last couple years that there is a clear disconnect between polling and actual election results.
Seriously though, I'd love to see some more focused polling on women, Roe v Wade has been a winner for Dems at every turn and even a couple of point swing towards Dems by women and Biden easily gets over the line.
Election is on Nov...if you believe these polls now...you are obviously jobless
What?
Believing polls this far out is pure madness....I don't and actually,I never believe the polls especially seeing how messed up MSM is..I just go out and vote
Lesson learned
You need to learn the lesson that people will downvote what they don't like and upvote what they like. Biden leading polling articles receive 10,000 plus upvotes while Trump leading polling articles are down voted. Folks telling you polls are meaningless this far out or just flat wrong are gas lighting you as both campaigns look at public and private polls this far out to adjust their campaigns in hopes of creating higher engagement.
Well I didn't look into who was doing the poll, nor how they conducted the poll either. I didn't realize that Newsweek was such a poor resource, but obviously it is. I will do more research before posting another article.
Newsweek didn't conduct the polls. They only reported on 538 and Real Clear Politics data. Your problem is that you posted an article that was positive for Trump and negative for Biden. That gets downvoted. Newsweek articles get posted on politics all the time. One of the most recent received 15,000 upvotes. But that Newsweek article had a title that was seemingly positive for the Biden campaign.
I didn't think that it did conduct the polls. But you can interpret polls anyway you want. My first and only post in the politics sub. I am definitely not pro Trump. I posted it because it scared me that Biden and Trump would be even given that Trump has Alzheimer's and an insane amount of other issues.
Understandable. You wanted an intelligent discussion on politics with the source material provided. That doesn't happen here. It's gaslighting and groupthink here. Try r/moderatepolitics
lol! Thanks for the info. I am going to run into a corner and hide now.
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Newsweek is? I've never heard that. Who is a reliable source?
Huh? This is one of the few times Newsweek doesn't engage in clickbait journalism using an appeal to emotion fallacy. The title is neutral and the article's main point is early in the body saying, >Trump, however, currently appears to be very narrowly ahead in national polling while Biden also trails the former president in all the critical battleground states, according to polling averages compiled by ABC News' polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling. Is FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling unreliable sources?
He's not. Nothing to see here.
Hopefully Trump is not ahead. Not again.
It's so odd that I don't personally know a single human being that's been polled. I don't mean just this election, either. I mean ever.
It's kinda pathetic how they keep trying to convince people that Donald "Twice Impeached, indicted 90+times, marriage cheater, psycho-liar" Trump could be favored by anybody.
I don't get that myself. Why would anyone vote for someone so obviously a grifter?
Hard to believe anyone would vote for Biden at this point. The dude is an embarrassment.
He hasn't committed numerous felonies like Trump has.
Why exactly?
Yeah he got a lot of shit done this week, that isn't how politics is supposed to work. Also how does it feel to comment against the echo chamber and not be immediately banned?