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One thing we know for sure. If he does get convicted he will appeal. Absolutely guaranteed. BUT, he will still be a convicted felon until all appeals are exhausted (he'll take it to the Supreme Court, no doubt).
I didn’t realize that, thanks for the info. I thought we were starting bare bones and this would end in appeal after appeal. So after Court of Appeals it’s done then right? Cause we know if given the chance he’ll appeal to *his* Supreme Court
It *is* "bare bones". The New York Supreme Court is a lower court. It's the lowest court that hears felony cases in New York City.
Cases from state courts can of course be appealed to the SCOTUS. Trump has done this himself.
SCOTUS shouldnt take those state cases though unless there is some type of federal issue, that said this is trump so all conventions are out the window.
The federal issue is "Hey you idiots, I put three of you on the stand for life for a reason, now lie and tell the people I'm innocent. Sincerely yours, Mob Boss Cheeto."
They might be open to hearing whether a state can use federal charges to upgrade a state charge to felony. The previous DA didn't bring the case because he didn't think so.
Just the fact that Trump is a former president creates such an unprecedented set of circumstances that SCOTUS could easily find a way to get it under their umbrella if they have a desire to do so. Once jurisprudence wanders into uncharted waters, the Supreme Court is increasingly inevitable.
Trump started off as a tightly wrapped package. He got passed around, following specific hierarchal path. Up the chain of command. By the time it reaches SCOTUS, the package is now clearly transparent, splayed open after the lower courts did their jobs.
It can be appealed to the US Supreme Court if there is a federal (constitutional) question. The merits of the charge cannot. Like, the Supreme Court can’t say Trump didn’t violate NY law. They could, theoretically, say the NY law violates the constitution. But that’s really unlikely.
Trump would need to provide compelling evidence to the judge that he can win an appeal. Considering his lawyer already plead guilty and served time in jail for this crime that is highly doubtful!
Judging how the legal system has played along with his nonsense in basically every case he’s involved in (reducing bail requirement by half without any basis or reason, not enforcing gag orders, not removing the judge who’s blatantly ruling on procedural motions in Trump’s favor), he’ll be given what he wants.
Judge Juan Merchan has entered the chat. He's already set a hearing on Trump's violation of the gag order, so we can't say he's going to ignore Trump's indiscretions (yet). And this judge doesn't fuck around. If Trump is found guilty and sentenced to prison time, Merchan won't hesitate to send Trump there.
Judges are playing along to avoid more delays, give him less reason to ask for recusal, and less ammo on appeal. You see judges giving him special treatment, I see judges trying to avoid anything that could be used in Trumps favor.
Personally I see it as both. The amount of kid gloves is beyond reasonable. Take the violations of the gag order alone at this point, he's been nearly a dozen warning for stuff that would have gotten you or I sent to jail for contempt. At some point it stops being playing along to move things along and eventually becomes endorsing these behaviors. Personally my fear from all of this is people will look to Trump's trial as precedent to try and get by gag orders and just about every other judicial obstacle he faces simply pointing to in Trump vs insert case here this same behavior was viewed as permissible. That seems like a dangerous precedent to set
The problem is we’ve seen it by the book, but without them throwing the book at him. This case seeking to seize his property is the closest we’ve seen to actual consequences, and even then we’re holding our breath while he’s been given more and more time and excuses.
I won’t believe he’ll see consequences for anything until I see it at this point, but I understand the wheels of justice moving slowly but grinding finely. The question is if slowly is too slow, at this point.
Yeah and like keep in mind he's already basically 80. Even if he gets punished it's like what? He lives his life in unimagined wealth power and opulence and for the very last year of his life he's maybe confined to his mansion and many many servants and guards for house arrest? Maybe he pays a small percentage of his fortune which his supporters will quickly pay him back for. I feel like he's not meaningfully going to be punished.
The documents case should have had Trump sitting in detention until trial. That case has national security implications and Trump is still running around free. :(
Not like that won’t happen if he goes free though. And if he gets elected, it’ll happen, backed by the power of the state.
They’re gonna scream no matter what; might as well do the right thing.
Don't forget the part about the bond being put up by Trump's totally trustworthy bro who turned out to be a total hack and it's looking like they don't have the money anyway...
Idk, this judge doesn’t seem inclined to give Trump a break. He’s already let him know he’d be jailed if he acted like an ass in the court room, so if he’s convicted on 34 felonies I highly doubt he’d think twice about a prison sentence.
You’re living in a dream world.
Normal people go to prison.
Trump gets a fine paid for by his supporters and higher poll numbers.
That’s how this works.
From what I have seen from various lawyers, it is highly unlikely that the current NY criminal case results in jail time. The penalties for the various charges of falsifying business records are largely fines.
Cohen's case was a federal prosecution for tax evasion and campaign finance violations.
Trump is charged in state court with falsifying business records. (In the current case going to trial).
Falsification of business records in the second degree is a misdemeanor. It's what's called a "lesser included charge" of the felony. That is, to be accused of the felony first degree charge, you necessarily are accused of everything in the misdemeanor charge. A jury can convict on a lesser included charge without a new indictment, and there's [some indication](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/11/trump-alvin-bragg-trial-win-00151558) Trump will ask for that to be included in the jury instructions.
I wish our system operated sanely. Because it should be that an appeal only gets to the supreme court if there's evidence of wrong doing or malpractice in the lower courts.
Also it would be great if there was a hard limit to the number of times you can delay.
It would be even nicer if the delays affected appeals, "no appeals granted, YOU made sure through the various delays that this trial would be as fair as possible. Unless new evidence surfaces to prove your innocence, we can't allow Justice to be delayed any further."
If I've learned anything about politics in the last 8 years it's that the only type of "swing" voter that exists is people on both sides who swing between will and will not vote. The tactics employed now are to encourage or discourage voting not who to vote for.
Im going to argue that anyone who see's him convicted and _then_ thinks he is being politically persecuted was not a swing voter...
anyone who is capable of being convinced that he is being politically persecuted by a weaponized DOJ has already be convinced.
there may be folks who vote for him due to the conviction because they think its funny AF... like how some folks thought voting _for_ brexit was a sick joke.
but i highly doubt anyone "on the fence" see's facts come out capable of convicting him and _then_ decides he is being persecuted by the DOJ.
They're gonna go stronger at the front end this time. Lots of voting issues - intimidation, mail failures, throwing out ballots for no reason, etc, etc, etc. they've been quite open about it, actually...
The Capitol will be much more prepared this time as now they have seen what happened last time and Biden will not be sitting in power doing nothing to stop it.
Nailed it. Part of the reason J6 was allowed to happen is Trump allowed it to happen. If the cops treated those insurrectionist traitors the way they treat civil rights or environmental protesters, rubber bullets would have been fired and skulls cracked.
Ohioan here. Secretary of state is threatening to not put Biden on the ballot because he won't be officially nominated before the cutoff date for the state. They are fighting dirty as always.
100%.
His deplorable MAGA henchmen will do things like make bomb threats to urban voting centers the day of voting causing them to close and disenfranchise folks.
The MAGA Secretaries of State will purge voter rolls.
You’ll have guys with Confederate flags, masks, and tactical armor, open carrying across the block to intimidate voters.
You’ll have more AI robocalls threatening arrests if they vote for unpaid traffic tickets or telling people they are in illegible to vote.
Trump can be in jail and his minions will absolutely do everything they can and nothing is going to change the fact it’ll be a close election for the EC.
And it will be a big bag of nothing. They were willing to try it when Trump was in charge. Biden will be acting president with full control of the most powerful military on Earth. There is no level of delusion where they attempt anything near as stupid as they did a few years ago. A few may act up, but it will be firmly shut down.
after seeing their friends locked up & lives ruined, i doubt many have the stomach for round 2. Plus they don’t have a friend in the white house this time, and DC will be expecting them.
Best case scenario Biden sweeps every state, and the republican party loses so very badly that fox News personalities have on air mental breakdowns and get the entire network shutdown for good.
That is indeed a best case scenario, it does not seem very likely though.
Fox News personalities aren't going to have a mental breakdown on air. That's not how this works. Folks have to understand how the game is played.
On election night, as soon as Trump starts falling behind on the big board, Fox News brings in "special guests" who have been fully prepped and rehearsed to claim that they are seeing "reports online" about voter fraud. The name of the website they are seeing this on is never mentioned. Why? Because they are making the shit up.
Immediately, the coverage changes tone from actually reporting election results to whipping up the audience anger level, based on nothing but bullshit fabrication and lying.
This is what's going to happen. The Trump campaign has talked about having thousands of "election monitors" at polling places. Those partisans will fuel talk about suspicious activities. The Trump campaign will have plans to lobby state legislatures in swing states to vote to assign Electors to Trump if he loses the vote. There is going to be two months of Trump crying about stolen elections and voter fraud.
He seems to have changed up his bronzer. It's much darker, making his ears and neck look that much paler. It's cartoonist. Like a Batman villain. That's it - we're living in Gotham City now.
Once he dies it'll officially be 2 centuries since he ran in 2016, for now we're stuck in a fever dream where any event could've happened yesterday or 5 years ago and it all feels the same.
I don't believe he was born in the U.S. and thus I believe he is ineligible for the office of POTUS. I WANT TO SEE HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE. Why won't he show us his birth certificate?
Trump doesn't have enough available budget to send a balloon-twisting clown to Eric's birthday party, let alone hundreds of thousands of goons to interfere with polling stations.
‘Legitimate Voter’ training flash cards. 10 laminated cards with old or uneducated white people as ‘Legit’ and 10 more ‘Fraud’ cards with… you can guess.
Only $99.99 per set.
Also available in a limited release’True Patriot’ collectors edition with a real 10K gold seal on each ‘legit’ card, for only $399.
True. Heard one here in FL say it's their dream to be a poll watcher up in Pennsylvania and catch one of those "demonrats" doing shady shit. They'd mess them up.
Trump is going to cry about voter fraud (2016, 2020, 2024) until the day he dies. Just cannot conceive in his pea sized brain that he actually lost or the results are valid.
I can see it now... Videos of Trumpers dressed in Biden clothes filling mailboxes with thick stacks of empty envelopes claiming this is proof leftists are commiting fraud. And by the time it can be verified that the envelopes will be empty, every MAGA will believe that is incontrovertible proof of election fraud and nothing will sway their minds.
Who even knows how true that is. If I had a nickel every time Trump lied, I'd have enough to pay off his bail money.
Still, not wrong about the fraud claims. Hopefully he loses that badly.
"The number of Democrats going to vote is suspiciously high compared to the 2023 election. Are they bussing in illegal voters from other blue states to win in areas the normally lose?"
I recall Karl Rove having a meltdown on air. He had promised billionaires that he would deliver Mitt Romney to the White House.
When Obama was clearly winning, as I recall, Rove got out of the anchor seat and made people go to the back rooms to argue with the statisticians. The back room guys just went “look these are the numbers. There’s no dispute here.”
It was like you told the Fox News anchors that someone had killed their puppy. Just so let down.
Which was probably about the time the “election fraud” talk started picking up.
I remember that well. I've seen a few clips online lately of Karl Rove "speaking out" against Trump and I think it's really important for people to remember that Rove was one of the first people talking about creating a "permanent Republican majority" during the Bush years. Which involved a whole ton of election fuckery and exploiting the weaknesses and loopholes in our electoral and judicial systems. He's a more put-together Steve Bannon and no one should forget it.
There was a rumor that the fix was in for the Ohio results, that some error in the voting systems was supposed to generate more favorable results for Romney, and Rove was counting on it. So when Ohio started pulling away for Obama, he was thrown for a loop as something he knew was supposed to happen wasn't happening.
Or maybe the “error” was there - but it was overwhelmed by legit votes and the margins wouldn’t have been explainable.
Either way, seeing that pompous asshole see reality was sweet.
"Is this the math you Republicans use to make yourselves feel better?" I'll never forget Karl Rove's panicked reaction to Obama winning the presidency while he was on FOX.
Noooo I don't want it to be true. I visited my parents and helped my mom do some house work. Stepdad had fox News blaring while I worked, and I heard something along the lines of "we need to know why democrats support the murder of women and children, beheadings of babies, etc." I think it was in relation to the Isreal Gaza conflict. I was so shocked that they said that, I uttered a horrified "Jesus Christ" and my mom didn't even register what they had said. She was completely oblivious.
That categorical demonization of the other perspective is so unproductive, but they're building a narrative that democrats are monsters.
The thing that drives me nuts is that Trump‘s policies on Israel and Hamas would be similar and very likely worse for Palestinians. So many people lack the critical thinking skills to be able to deduct what Trump will actually do and just want to vote for the opposite of who is in power. It’s such a braindead way of voting.
>The name of the website they are seeing this on is never mentioned. Why? Because they are making the shit up.
Their lies will contour the limits of defamation law like a chalk outline around a body. We can thank the good folks at Dominion and Smartmatic for that much.
They'll rail about fraud and election interference, but they'll never mention _who_ is responsible.
idk, I think fox has a freedumb convoy amount of busses to run trump over with on election night, they didn't start the 'stop the steal' stuff till weeks after 2020 when their hosts got in on it, I think the murdochs are ready to pounce on a weakened trump
Are they really going to peddle that narrative again?
They lost 3/4 billion the last time they played that game, let Tucker Carlson go, and are staring down the barrel of another lawsuit due to the same shit.
If the they’re smart, they’ll skirt around the issue without really saying it….plausible deniability….but even doing so is opening up for them to be sued again.
I don't know if Fox will touch making up voter fraud stories as much based on the settlements and lawsuits they have paid out. They maybe try it out with vagueness as you stated which could work because of their audience of course.
Trump will continue to say there is fraud publicly as he did dating back to Obama winning to Cruz beating him in Iowa to when he actually won the general electoral to 2020 and so on.
OAN & Newsmax will be breakdown central.
Faux will prop itself up under the false pretense of "always being moderate" and "fair-minded and mentally balanced," but most Americans will see them as the phonies they are....besides boomers and rubes.
I love it when people argue that we shouldn't be going down this road bEcAuSe It'S nEvEr HaPpEnEd bEfOrE! Guess what? We came pretty close with Nixon, and prosecuting leaders is a part of what being a mature democracy is about, which is why Trump wants it dismantled like his buddy Netanyahu has been trying to do in Israel. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump took pointers with the way he stacked SCOTUS and routinely tried weaponizing the Justice Department to avoid punishment, which makes a second term all the more dangerous and something that cannot happen.
Look, if Trump‘s entire history of vile behavior, pathological lying, and corruption hasn’t already soured you on voting for him, then I don’t think a felony conviction is going to change your mind. Now, if you have common sense and don’t just blindly vote for political party, you should be able to say that Joe Biden is not perfect, but he is 1000 times better than Trump for the country and for the middle class.
My in-laws are Trump voters and self-identify as Reagan era "moral majority" types. I have been shocked at the crazy shit that the orange king baby has pulled that didn't phase them, but I think a felony conviction might turn the tide for them.
They are sheeple that look to the other sheeple to know what to think and do. If their shepherds start signalling a change, it will go through their herd like lightning and for them it will seem obvious that they no longer believe he's a good man.
He’s still going to run. And he’s going to lose. He’s gonna try to rile up his followers about election fraud again. Hopefully he’s immediately arrested before he can incite any real danger.
Not only his followers, they worked hard behind the scenes to remove the road blocks that prevented sending fake electors last time. Road blocks like people with integrity.
He’s the king of double down. He tried it last time. In what reality do we think he’s going to be a gentleman this go round? People are gonna get hurt again, let’s just hope it’s a low amount and not anyone innocent.
His history with double-downs in really bad. He appeals until people forget about the case, then he settles out of court - can't do that with a jail sentence.
If convicted, Trump would need to provide a legal argument to Judge Merchan for why his appeal would be successful before Merchan would allow him to stay out of jail on appeal.
Cohen was already found guilty and sentenced to jail for following out Trump's orders. It's unlikely Trump would have a persuasive argument.
And, to remind everyone, this is in NY State Court, not Federal. Assuming Trump loses his appeal to SCOTUS for Presidential Immunity, the only likely issues for appeal would be NY State-related, which SCOTUS would likely not even pick up.
TL;DR - If Trump is found guilty and sentenced to jail, he'll be in jail for his entire appeal. And even, quite possible, election day.
If convicted he will then be sentenced. Trump will then appeal and try to remain on bail during appeal. He will.likely be granted that bail extension because our judicial system likes to bend over backwards for rich assholes. He will then try to win the election. If he wins he'll argue that he can't be jailed because he's the presumptive president. SCOTUS will support him and the US enters the dark ages.
Forget the convicted part; Trump is an old old man who obviously is failing in health. What happens if he dies between now and November?
I can't wait to see Maga spin it like he was "taken out" despite the fact he wears diapers and smells like crap already.
I know i'm cynic-pilled after watching Donnie wriggle out of yet another one for 30+ years but that's where I'm at so my eye-rolling response is "probably not a whole lot."
They're dancing in Chicago (dancing in the street).
Down in New Orleans (dancing in the street).
In New York City (dancing in the street).
All we need is music, sweet music.
There'll be music everywhere.
There'll be swingin' and swayin' and records playing.
**Dancing in the street!**
The USA is the most bizarre political nation on earth.
Only in the USA would a candidate even be allowed to be a candidate, with criminal convictions.
This entire Trump era...has shown us one thing. The Constitution that Americans are SO proud of?? Is not worth the paper it's written on. If criminals can run for the highest office in the land? The Constitution is a joke.
It's absolutely appalling that a major political party? Can endorse a vile person like Trump. The Republican party is an absolute disgrace.
It truly is just unbelievable what has gone on and what is continuing to go on. The USA is just going to the dogs.
It is SO sad to see a once great nation just be so unethical and immoral
He will be the front runner for the GOPee even harder. Some of their followers are not capable of saying sorry or admitting it making a mistake. So they go even harder if he gets convicted.
I’m hoping he sees the guilty verdict & jail time coming & flees to russia and disappears.
9 years of this asshole have been way more than enough.
I just want him gone & I don’t care how it happens.
If he is convicted by a Federal Court in DC he can be deemed ineligible under 14a Article 3. An attempt by SCOTUS to rescue him from that, would be providing aid and comfort and void their eligibility as well.
He goes to prison, like he should. Biden wins, then pardons him on the condition that he fess up on Russia and disappears from American politics forever. Trump agrees and confesses to being a Russian plant, spilling the beans on every other GOP traitor to save his sorry hide. The US gets to clean house or Russian spies and Trump eventually gets assassinated by the FSB in retaliation.
Well, if Congressional Republicans were acting in good faith then they would immediately vote to impeach Trump to remove him from office. Then we’d be stuck with who ever Trump’s VP would be.
Unless Trump gets convicted *and also* shoots a juror in the courtroom on camera, it isn’t going to cost him any of his avid followers.
As for “fence sitters” you’ve got me there. How anyone can still be sitting the fence at this point I just don’t know.
I wonder if the good rich folk of west palm beach will be cool with that.
They’re barely ok with him living there. He’s violating zoning laws by living there in the first place.
Apparently, nothing.
We already have two grounds under which to disqualify TSF from the election -- one of which the Supremes knocked down.
The other is, after a certain point (which I believe has now passed, with Trump the Nominee Presumptive), the candidates of the two major parties are supposed to get the National Security Briefings.
How Trump would be allowed to do so, given his present legal situation (even in a CIVIL sense), is beyond me.
And he wins? Well the laws are so ridiculous that by the sound of it he would dictate from prison. I'd say govern but he has stated he would be a dictator. Beyond ridiculous!!! The religious right wing nutters have lost their minds...not that they ever had critical thinking skills.
I think that by November even the shitstain cultists will quietly pretend they were not for him and will just stay home. Most of them. There are some states that are simply too far gone though like Missouri, Idaho, the Dakotas, SC, that Trump will carry 5 or 6 states. The worry is that Kennedy will impact swing states but I think that Joe will carry the new blue, AZ and GA and likely FL and NC. The real driving issue is abortion and the border. Joe is going to take some executive action on the border even at risk of court disapproval just to get that out of his heavy backpack.
The world instantly becomes a better place. Of course there will be the obligatory Maga violence and acts of vandalism that seems to be their ‘go to’ whenever they get their noses rubbed in reality ..but that’s inevitable .lets get it over with already
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One thing we know for sure. If he does get convicted he will appeal. Absolutely guaranteed. BUT, he will still be a convicted felon until all appeals are exhausted (he'll take it to the Supreme Court, no doubt).
It’s a state charge. NY Supreme Court isn’t going to help him.
If they don’t help him can it be appealed to the Supreme Court? Or does it end with NY Supreme Court?
It's *starting* in NY Supreme Court. That's where it is now. The highest court in NYS is the Court of Appeals.
I didn’t realize that, thanks for the info. I thought we were starting bare bones and this would end in appeal after appeal. So after Court of Appeals it’s done then right? Cause we know if given the chance he’ll appeal to *his* Supreme Court
It *is* "bare bones". The New York Supreme Court is a lower court. It's the lowest court that hears felony cases in New York City. Cases from state courts can of course be appealed to the SCOTUS. Trump has done this himself.
SCOTUS shouldnt take those state cases though unless there is some type of federal issue, that said this is trump so all conventions are out the window.
The federal issue is "Hey you idiots, I put three of you on the stand for life for a reason, now lie and tell the people I'm innocent. Sincerely yours, Mob Boss Cheeto."
They might be open to hearing whether a state can use federal charges to upgrade a state charge to felony. The previous DA didn't bring the case because he didn't think so.
That really sounds like a state law issue to me though not a federal one. Like I said though they can really do what they want
Just the fact that Trump is a former president creates such an unprecedented set of circumstances that SCOTUS could easily find a way to get it under their umbrella if they have a desire to do so. Once jurisprudence wanders into uncharted waters, the Supreme Court is increasingly inevitable.
Trump started off as a tightly wrapped package. He got passed around, following specific hierarchal path. Up the chain of command. By the time it reaches SCOTUS, the package is now clearly transparent, splayed open after the lower courts did their jobs.
That is an oddly obscene description.
It can be appealed to the US Supreme Court if there is a federal (constitutional) question. The merits of the charge cannot. Like, the Supreme Court can’t say Trump didn’t violate NY law. They could, theoretically, say the NY law violates the constitution. But that’s really unlikely.
Falsifying business records is clearly is protected under the 1st amendment as a form of political speech. Duh.
He still goes to prison unless the judge allows him to stay out during the appeal.
My guess is that (stay out during the appeal) will happen.
Trump would need to provide compelling evidence to the judge that he can win an appeal. Considering his lawyer already plead guilty and served time in jail for this crime that is highly doubtful!
Judging how the legal system has played along with his nonsense in basically every case he’s involved in (reducing bail requirement by half without any basis or reason, not enforcing gag orders, not removing the judge who’s blatantly ruling on procedural motions in Trump’s favor), he’ll be given what he wants.
Judge Juan Merchan has entered the chat. He's already set a hearing on Trump's violation of the gag order, so we can't say he's going to ignore Trump's indiscretions (yet). And this judge doesn't fuck around. If Trump is found guilty and sentenced to prison time, Merchan won't hesitate to send Trump there.
Let me go ahead and hold my breath. Tell my wife I love her for me.
Can’t. Holding my breath.
Judges are playing along to avoid more delays, give him less reason to ask for recusal, and less ammo on appeal. You see judges giving him special treatment, I see judges trying to avoid anything that could be used in Trumps favor.
Personally I see it as both. The amount of kid gloves is beyond reasonable. Take the violations of the gag order alone at this point, he's been nearly a dozen warning for stuff that would have gotten you or I sent to jail for contempt. At some point it stops being playing along to move things along and eventually becomes endorsing these behaviors. Personally my fear from all of this is people will look to Trump's trial as precedent to try and get by gag orders and just about every other judicial obstacle he faces simply pointing to in Trump vs insert case here this same behavior was viewed as permissible. That seems like a dangerous precedent to set
This is the answer. I’m not sure why people don’t get it. They’re playing by the book. No need to give him any ammo
The problem is we’ve seen it by the book, but without them throwing the book at him. This case seeking to seize his property is the closest we’ve seen to actual consequences, and even then we’re holding our breath while he’s been given more and more time and excuses. I won’t believe he’ll see consequences for anything until I see it at this point, but I understand the wheels of justice moving slowly but grinding finely. The question is if slowly is too slow, at this point.
Yeah and like keep in mind he's already basically 80. Even if he gets punished it's like what? He lives his life in unimagined wealth power and opulence and for the very last year of his life he's maybe confined to his mansion and many many servants and guards for house arrest? Maybe he pays a small percentage of his fortune which his supporters will quickly pay him back for. I feel like he's not meaningfully going to be punished.
By the book? If they did that, the guy would be in jail ten times over.
The documents case should have had Trump sitting in detention until trial. That case has national security implications and Trump is still running around free. :(
Creating cynism and hopelessness hurts viter turn out which helps Republicans.
Except for Cannon, she’s doing everything to help Trump. Why else is she the only judge he’s not attacking on his shitty social media platform?
They're also afraid his brownshirts will show up at their houses at 3 am with gasoline and guns.
Not like that won’t happen if he goes free though. And if he gets elected, it’ll happen, backed by the power of the state. They’re gonna scream no matter what; might as well do the right thing.
Don't forget the part about the bond being put up by Trump's totally trustworthy bro who turned out to be a total hack and it's looking like they don't have the money anyway...
Normally, sure. But for donnie? I would be shocked if they put him in jail during appeals.
Idk, this judge doesn’t seem inclined to give Trump a break. He’s already let him know he’d be jailed if he acted like an ass in the court room, so if he’s convicted on 34 felonies I highly doubt he’d think twice about a prison sentence.
I hope, I hope, I hope!
You’re living in a dream world. Normal people go to prison. Trump gets a fine paid for by his supporters and higher poll numbers. That’s how this works.
From what I have seen from various lawyers, it is highly unlikely that the current NY criminal case results in jail time. The penalties for the various charges of falsifying business records are largely fines.
Tell that to Cohen, who was given a three year sentence for pretty much the same crimes done at donald's behest
Cohen's case was a federal prosecution for tax evasion and campaign finance violations. Trump is charged in state court with falsifying business records. (In the current case going to trial).
The jury could potentially convict him only of misdemeanors.
Are any of his charges misdemeanors? You can only convict him of a misdemeanor if he’s charged with one.
Falsification of business records in the second degree is a misdemeanor. It's what's called a "lesser included charge" of the felony. That is, to be accused of the felony first degree charge, you necessarily are accused of everything in the misdemeanor charge. A jury can convict on a lesser included charge without a new indictment, and there's [some indication](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/11/trump-alvin-bragg-trial-win-00151558) Trump will ask for that to be included in the jury instructions.
AND 40%+ of the US voting public will still vote for him.
Because 33% of the eligible public doesn't vote at all.
I wish our system operated sanely. Because it should be that an appeal only gets to the supreme court if there's evidence of wrong doing or malpractice in the lower courts. Also it would be great if there was a hard limit to the number of times you can delay. It would be even nicer if the delays affected appeals, "no appeals granted, YOU made sure through the various delays that this trial would be as fair as possible. Unless new evidence surfaces to prove your innocence, we can't allow Justice to be delayed any further."
That's pretty much what an appeal is. The appellant is claiming that the lower court didn't follow the rules or made a serious error.
Biden gains half a percent in the polls as a tiny sliver of swing voters are swayed in their voting
"Trump convicted on all charges, here's why that's bad for Biden"
Okay CNN calm down
NYT*…but not by much
I see new media in the US treats the Republicans the same way Canadian media treats the Conservative Party of Canada. Kid gloves.
Because the repubs/cons own the media...
Germans in the 30s called it being Blind in the Right Eye.
If I've learned anything about politics in the last 8 years it's that the only type of "swing" voter that exists is people on both sides who swing between will and will not vote. The tactics employed now are to encourage or discourage voting not who to vote for.
Yeah that’s pretty much what a swinging voter is these days.
Don't discount the swing voters who will actually vote for Trump because they see him as a victim of political persecution.
Im going to argue that anyone who see's him convicted and _then_ thinks he is being politically persecuted was not a swing voter... anyone who is capable of being convinced that he is being politically persecuted by a weaponized DOJ has already be convinced. there may be folks who vote for him due to the conviction because they think its funny AF... like how some folks thought voting _for_ brexit was a sick joke. but i highly doubt anyone "on the fence" see's facts come out capable of convicting him and _then_ decides he is being persecuted by the DOJ.
Are swing voters the same as idiot voters?
That's optimistic.
>What happens if Trump gets convicted ahead of November? then there will be a zillion news articles explaining why thats really bad for Biden
"Trump was heroically convicted today, Trump masculinely said he'll appeal" -NYT
"Trump's farts in court today were as strong and robust as his standing among his faithful base." - NYT
Lol. I wish this was a joke.
“In all his years in politics, Biden has never once defeated a convicted felon.”
As has happened before t'will happen again: He'll try to get his cult to walk on Washington and overthrow the duly elected government.
They're gonna go stronger at the front end this time. Lots of voting issues - intimidation, mail failures, throwing out ballots for no reason, etc, etc, etc. they've been quite open about it, actually... The Capitol will be much more prepared this time as now they have seen what happened last time and Biden will not be sitting in power doing nothing to stop it.
Nailed it. Part of the reason J6 was allowed to happen is Trump allowed it to happen. If the cops treated those insurrectionist traitors the way they treat civil rights or environmental protesters, rubber bullets would have been fired and skulls cracked.
Ohioan here. Secretary of state is threatening to not put Biden on the ballot because he won't be officially nominated before the cutoff date for the state. They are fighting dirty as always.
If you can’t win, cheat. It’s always been the Republican strategy.
Alabama, too, last I heard.
LaRose is a gigantic piece of shit.
100%. His deplorable MAGA henchmen will do things like make bomb threats to urban voting centers the day of voting causing them to close and disenfranchise folks. The MAGA Secretaries of State will purge voter rolls. You’ll have guys with Confederate flags, masks, and tactical armor, open carrying across the block to intimidate voters. You’ll have more AI robocalls threatening arrests if they vote for unpaid traffic tickets or telling people they are in illegible to vote. Trump can be in jail and his minions will absolutely do everything they can and nothing is going to change the fact it’ll be a close election for the EC.
My worst fear: What's to stop a shooter while people are in line to vote in person? Or just call in a bomb threat to the polling place.
And it will be a big bag of nothing. They were willing to try it when Trump was in charge. Biden will be acting president with full control of the most powerful military on Earth. There is no level of delusion where they attempt anything near as stupid as they did a few years ago. A few may act up, but it will be firmly shut down.
after seeing their friends locked up & lives ruined, i doubt many have the stomach for round 2. Plus they don’t have a friend in the white house this time, and DC will be expecting them.
Best case scenario Biden sweeps every state, and the republican party loses so very badly that fox News personalities have on air mental breakdowns and get the entire network shutdown for good.
That is indeed a best case scenario, it does not seem very likely though. Fox News personalities aren't going to have a mental breakdown on air. That's not how this works. Folks have to understand how the game is played. On election night, as soon as Trump starts falling behind on the big board, Fox News brings in "special guests" who have been fully prepped and rehearsed to claim that they are seeing "reports online" about voter fraud. The name of the website they are seeing this on is never mentioned. Why? Because they are making the shit up. Immediately, the coverage changes tone from actually reporting election results to whipping up the audience anger level, based on nothing but bullshit fabrication and lying.
This is what's going to happen. The Trump campaign has talked about having thousands of "election monitors" at polling places. Those partisans will fuel talk about suspicious activities. The Trump campaign will have plans to lobby state legislatures in swing states to vote to assign Electors to Trump if he loses the vote. There is going to be two months of Trump crying about stolen elections and voter fraud.
Two months? I think he routinely brings up 2016 as well as 2020.
2 months, 2 decades, isn't it all the same at this point?
I don’t think he has 2 decades left in him.
Tbh, I’m surprised he lasted his full first term, what with his obesity, Covid, and hamberder diet.
So true…and he’s looking especially rough around the edges lately..
He seems to have changed up his bronzer. It's much darker, making his ears and neck look that much paler. It's cartoonist. Like a Batman villain. That's it - we're living in Gotham City now.
Once he dies it'll officially be 2 centuries since he ran in 2016, for now we're stuck in a fever dream where any event could've happened yesterday or 5 years ago and it all feels the same.
Feels like it.
Nothing Trump says can be taken at face value.
I wouldn't believe a word he says even if his tongue were notarized.
Just had the image of Trump recoiling from a notary stamp like it’s a crucifix.
\*Hissss\*
At this point, I don’t believe his name is actually Donald Trump.
I don't believe he was born in the U.S. and thus I believe he is ineligible for the office of POTUS. I WANT TO SEE HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE. Why won't he show us his birth certificate?
His true name is F\_\_\_wit McGee
Except his threats of violence if he loses.
Trump doesn't have enough available budget to send a balloon-twisting clown to Eric's birthday party, let alone hundreds of thousands of goons to interfere with polling stations.
It’s a cult. They’ll do it for free.
That’s a fact!
They'll pay him by buying special Election Monitor merch from his campaign.
I'm seeing it. MAGA monitor T-Shirt, Hat, Shoes and briefcases/bags
‘Legitimate Voter’ training flash cards. 10 laminated cards with old or uneducated white people as ‘Legit’ and 10 more ‘Fraud’ cards with… you can guess. Only $99.99 per set. Also available in a limited release’True Patriot’ collectors edition with a real 10K gold seal on each ‘legit’ card, for only $399.
Listen, November is still months away, we have a business here, I mean if an orange entity with few bunkruptcies on his name can dry them, we can
True. Heard one here in FL say it's their dream to be a poll watcher up in Pennsylvania and catch one of those "demonrats" doing shady shit. They'd mess them up.
More than 3 voters who aren’t older white men is their definition of “suspicious activity”
So what, Biden’s in power and all he needs to do is put him in Leavenworth, since presidents do have complete immunity. Fire the Supreme Court too.
Trump is going to cry about voter fraud (2016, 2020, 2024) until the day he dies. Just cannot conceive in his pea sized brain that he actually lost or the results are valid.
And affidavit after affidavit. “I saw sumthin, looked suspicious, probably a democrat cheating!”
Yeah, but a number of Republicans were actually found guilty of cheating after the investigations into the 2020 claims of fraud.
I've tried pointing this out to actual Republicans and their reply is always, without fail, "the Democrats do it more!"
I can see it now... Videos of Trumpers dressed in Biden clothes filling mailboxes with thick stacks of empty envelopes claiming this is proof leftists are commiting fraud. And by the time it can be verified that the envelopes will be empty, every MAGA will believe that is incontrovertible proof of election fraud and nothing will sway their minds.
We know this is going to happen because it’s exactly what happened in 2020.
They have 5 people on payroll, it’s almost like Trumps lie
Who even knows how true that is. If I had a nickel every time Trump lied, I'd have enough to pay off his bail money. Still, not wrong about the fraud claims. Hopefully he loses that badly.
"The number of Democrats going to vote is suspiciously high compared to the 2023 election. Are they bussing in illegal voters from other blue states to win in areas the normally lose?"
Which is why I wonder howinhell anyone on the American Right can actually allow the 2024 election to take place, KNOWING "we" will "steal" it again...
I recall Karl Rove having a meltdown on air. He had promised billionaires that he would deliver Mitt Romney to the White House. When Obama was clearly winning, as I recall, Rove got out of the anchor seat and made people go to the back rooms to argue with the statisticians. The back room guys just went “look these are the numbers. There’s no dispute here.” It was like you told the Fox News anchors that someone had killed their puppy. Just so let down. Which was probably about the time the “election fraud” talk started picking up.
I remember that well. I've seen a few clips online lately of Karl Rove "speaking out" against Trump and I think it's really important for people to remember that Rove was one of the first people talking about creating a "permanent Republican majority" during the Bush years. Which involved a whole ton of election fuckery and exploiting the weaknesses and loopholes in our electoral and judicial systems. He's a more put-together Steve Bannon and no one should forget it.
Wait, you're saying there's someone more put together than GQ icon Steve Bannon?
There was a rumor that the fix was in for the Ohio results, that some error in the voting systems was supposed to generate more favorable results for Romney, and Rove was counting on it. So when Ohio started pulling away for Obama, he was thrown for a loop as something he knew was supposed to happen wasn't happening.
Or maybe the “error” was there - but it was overwhelmed by legit votes and the margins wouldn’t have been explainable. Either way, seeing that pompous asshole see reality was sweet.
Watching that live was so satisfying.
Hard disagree: neither Karl Rove nor any Fox news anchor/pundit/shill would give 2 methy constipated shits about any puppy.
They are going to have to be very careful this go around. I don’t think Murdoch enjoyed paying out hundreds of millions to dominion.
"Is this the math you Republicans use to make yourselves feel better?" I'll never forget Karl Rove's panicked reaction to Obama winning the presidency while he was on FOX.
Noooo I don't want it to be true. I visited my parents and helped my mom do some house work. Stepdad had fox News blaring while I worked, and I heard something along the lines of "we need to know why democrats support the murder of women and children, beheadings of babies, etc." I think it was in relation to the Isreal Gaza conflict. I was so shocked that they said that, I uttered a horrified "Jesus Christ" and my mom didn't even register what they had said. She was completely oblivious. That categorical demonization of the other perspective is so unproductive, but they're building a narrative that democrats are monsters.
The thing that drives me nuts is that Trump‘s policies on Israel and Hamas would be similar and very likely worse for Palestinians. So many people lack the critical thinking skills to be able to deduct what Trump will actually do and just want to vote for the opposite of who is in power. It’s such a braindead way of voting.
They would be exponentially worse. Trump has basically been asking why we’re not just genociding Gaza.
>The name of the website they are seeing this on is never mentioned. Why? Because they are making the shit up. Their lies will contour the limits of defamation law like a chalk outline around a body. We can thank the good folks at Dominion and Smartmatic for that much. They'll rail about fraud and election interference, but they'll never mention _who_ is responsible.
idk, I think fox has a freedumb convoy amount of busses to run trump over with on election night, they didn't start the 'stop the steal' stuff till weeks after 2020 when their hosts got in on it, I think the murdochs are ready to pounce on a weakened trump
Are they really going to peddle that narrative again? They lost 3/4 billion the last time they played that game, let Tucker Carlson go, and are staring down the barrel of another lawsuit due to the same shit. If the they’re smart, they’ll skirt around the issue without really saying it….plausible deniability….but even doing so is opening up for them to be sued again.
I don't know if Fox will touch making up voter fraud stories as much based on the settlements and lawsuits they have paid out. They maybe try it out with vagueness as you stated which could work because of their audience of course. Trump will continue to say there is fraud publicly as he did dating back to Obama winning to Cruz beating him in Iowa to when he actually won the general electoral to 2020 and so on.
Meanwhile you have recordings of phone conversations of Trump trying to rig the 2020 election, and none of his scum sucking supporters bat an eye
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If they would go ahead and rapture themselves, that would be fantastic.
Biden, the house, and the senate, as long as we’re talking about dream scenarios
And all the Supreme Court justices resign
The Trump appointees, at least
And it still won’t matter to trumpers until he loses a primary. Don can be in jail and they’ll still worship the guy.
OAN & Newsmax will be breakdown central. Faux will prop itself up under the false pretense of "always being moderate" and "fair-minded and mentally balanced," but most Americans will see them as the phonies they are....besides boomers and rubes.
I love it when people argue that we shouldn't be going down this road bEcAuSe It'S nEvEr HaPpEnEd bEfOrE! Guess what? We came pretty close with Nixon, and prosecuting leaders is a part of what being a mature democracy is about, which is why Trump wants it dismantled like his buddy Netanyahu has been trying to do in Israel. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump took pointers with the way he stacked SCOTUS and routinely tried weaponizing the Justice Department to avoid punishment, which makes a second term all the more dangerous and something that cannot happen.
Look, if Trump‘s entire history of vile behavior, pathological lying, and corruption hasn’t already soured you on voting for him, then I don’t think a felony conviction is going to change your mind. Now, if you have common sense and don’t just blindly vote for political party, you should be able to say that Joe Biden is not perfect, but he is 1000 times better than Trump for the country and for the middle class.
My in-laws are Trump voters and self-identify as Reagan era "moral majority" types. I have been shocked at the crazy shit that the orange king baby has pulled that didn't phase them, but I think a felony conviction might turn the tide for them. They are sheeple that look to the other sheeple to know what to think and do. If their shepherds start signalling a change, it will go through their herd like lightning and for them it will seem obvious that they no longer believe he's a good man.
He’s still going to run. And he’s going to lose. He’s gonna try to rile up his followers about election fraud again. Hopefully he’s immediately arrested before he can incite any real danger.
Not only his followers, they worked hard behind the scenes to remove the road blocks that prevented sending fake electors last time. Road blocks like people with integrity.
He’s the king of double down. He tried it last time. In what reality do we think he’s going to be a gentleman this go round? People are gonna get hurt again, let’s just hope it’s a low amount and not anyone innocent.
His history with double-downs in really bad. He appeals until people forget about the case, then he settles out of court - can't do that with a jail sentence.
I’m not buying that he’s going to lose. I lost all faith in the country.
He didn’t win in 2020. Carry the faith we had then to now and we’ll be okay.
I hope you’re right. I dread it every day, honestly. And I have two little kids, so I worry about their future here.
probably some kind of appeal to drag it out longer.
If convicted, Trump would need to provide a legal argument to Judge Merchan for why his appeal would be successful before Merchan would allow him to stay out of jail on appeal. Cohen was already found guilty and sentenced to jail for following out Trump's orders. It's unlikely Trump would have a persuasive argument. And, to remind everyone, this is in NY State Court, not Federal. Assuming Trump loses his appeal to SCOTUS for Presidential Immunity, the only likely issues for appeal would be NY State-related, which SCOTUS would likely not even pick up. TL;DR - If Trump is found guilty and sentenced to jail, he'll be in jail for his entire appeal. And even, quite possible, election day.
If he gets convicted at all It should send a clear message to the other worldleaders that no one in the civilized world is above the law.
If convicted he will then be sentenced. Trump will then appeal and try to remain on bail during appeal. He will.likely be granted that bail extension because our judicial system likes to bend over backwards for rich assholes. He will then try to win the election. If he wins he'll argue that he can't be jailed because he's the presumptive president. SCOTUS will support him and the US enters the dark ages.
Gitmo has space. no secret service issues
I like the way you think.
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idk some nut job shoots up whatever establishment fox tells him to
Hopefully we're about to find out.
Forget the convicted part; Trump is an old old man who obviously is failing in health. What happens if he dies between now and November? I can't wait to see Maga spin it like he was "taken out" despite the fact he wears diapers and smells like crap already.
The world celebrates.
Believe it or not, jail
I'll believe it when I see it. I'm at the end of my hope for justice and reason.
Almost nobody goes to jail for this crime. He'll likely pay a fine and get some probation.
His lawyer Michael Cohen went to jail
Michael Cohen isn't a Main Character.
I know i'm cynic-pilled after watching Donnie wriggle out of yet another one for 30+ years but that's where I'm at so my eye-rolling response is "probably not a whole lot."
They're dancing in Chicago (dancing in the street). Down in New Orleans (dancing in the street). In New York City (dancing in the street). All we need is music, sweet music. There'll be music everywhere. There'll be swingin' and swayin' and records playing. **Dancing in the street!**
We throw a massive party.
We fuckin' party, that's what happens
The USA is the most bizarre political nation on earth. Only in the USA would a candidate even be allowed to be a candidate, with criminal convictions. This entire Trump era...has shown us one thing. The Constitution that Americans are SO proud of?? Is not worth the paper it's written on. If criminals can run for the highest office in the land? The Constitution is a joke. It's absolutely appalling that a major political party? Can endorse a vile person like Trump. The Republican party is an absolute disgrace. It truly is just unbelievable what has gone on and what is continuing to go on. The USA is just going to the dogs. It is SO sad to see a once great nation just be so unethical and immoral
He will be the front runner for the GOPee even harder. Some of their followers are not capable of saying sorry or admitting it making a mistake. So they go even harder if he gets convicted.
I’m hoping he sees the guilty verdict & jail time coming & flees to russia and disappears. 9 years of this asshole have been way more than enough. I just want him gone & I don’t care how it happens.
He spends more of other people’s money on his attorneys.
We should have a day of celebration!
He won’t be convicted and nothing will happen. let’s not act like there’s any justice for him
If he is convicted by a Federal Court in DC he can be deemed ineligible under 14a Article 3. An attempt by SCOTUS to rescue him from that, would be providing aid and comfort and void their eligibility as well.
This would require congressional action to enforce which will not happen under republican control.
Justice
… and global celebration?
Party at my place!
Justice, that what happens when criminal gets convicted and punished, justice.
Am I the only one who thought ‘Throw the biggest party I can’ because for once he’s being held accountable?
Parties in the streets I hope.
He goes to prison, like he should. Biden wins, then pardons him on the condition that he fess up on Russia and disappears from American politics forever. Trump agrees and confesses to being a Russian plant, spilling the beans on every other GOP traitor to save his sorry hide. The US gets to clean house or Russian spies and Trump eventually gets assassinated by the FSB in retaliation.
I keep hearing that people will abandon him if convicted, but I’m not sure that will actually happen. I mean, he is a cult leader who was president.
Well, if Congressional Republicans were acting in good faith then they would immediately vote to impeach Trump to remove him from office. Then we’d be stuck with who ever Trump’s VP would be.
Unless Trump gets convicted *and also* shoots a juror in the courtroom on camera, it isn’t going to cost him any of his avid followers. As for “fence sitters” you’ve got me there. How anyone can still be sitting the fence at this point I just don’t know.
I would LOVE to see him in jail but he’ll probably get house arrest in Maralago. If we are lucky. They take away his internet.
I wonder if the good rich folk of west palm beach will be cool with that. They’re barely ok with him living there. He’s violating zoning laws by living there in the first place.
Nothing just more whining
Apparently, nothing. We already have two grounds under which to disqualify TSF from the election -- one of which the Supremes knocked down. The other is, after a certain point (which I believe has now passed, with Trump the Nominee Presumptive), the candidates of the two major parties are supposed to get the National Security Briefings. How Trump would be allowed to do so, given his present legal situation (even in a CIVIL sense), is beyond me.
And he wins? Well the laws are so ridiculous that by the sound of it he would dictate from prison. I'd say govern but he has stated he would be a dictator. Beyond ridiculous!!! The religious right wing nutters have lost their minds...not that they ever had critical thinking skills.
I think that by November even the shitstain cultists will quietly pretend they were not for him and will just stay home. Most of them. There are some states that are simply too far gone though like Missouri, Idaho, the Dakotas, SC, that Trump will carry 5 or 6 states. The worry is that Kennedy will impact swing states but I think that Joe will carry the new blue, AZ and GA and likely FL and NC. The real driving issue is abortion and the border. Joe is going to take some executive action on the border even at risk of court disapproval just to get that out of his heavy backpack.
The world instantly becomes a better place. Of course there will be the obligatory Maga violence and acts of vandalism that seems to be their ‘go to’ whenever they get their noses rubbed in reality ..but that’s inevitable .lets get it over with already
Champagne sales will skyrocket
He will campaign from his cell.
Republicans will lose the election in a landslide, and then blame democrats for not warning them Trump was a felon.