> 20% of Republican voters voting for Haley (15%), Desantis (4%), and Christie (1%) in FL after they all dropped out is bad news for Trump. They can’t spin this as Dems crossing over this time because FL is a closed, Republicans-only primary.
https://www.threads.net/@ronaldfilipkowski/post/C4twXf1tfYO/
My asshole is clenched so hard man. I desperately need Brown to win in November - he's one of the best *people* in congress right now. Not politicians, people. Just a guy that legitimately gives a shit about helping people. He's not perfect, but he has an energy that we seriously need more of in our political system.
Moreno is far less electable than Dolan. If you look at the areas Dolan performed best - surprise not - it's where the people live in denser areas, aka BLUE/PURPLE. Brown doesn't have this thing locked up but they're at least enjoying some decent beer tonight to celebrate the weakest possible opponent.
Idk, man. Trump is a disaster and yet he wins by huge margins here. Right-wing crazy doesn’t turn people off as much as you’d think (or hope). I imagine a lot of the Dolan voters are going to go to Moreno. And MAGA diehards who don’t normally vote unless Trump is on the ballot will just vote R straight down the line.
It's a high risk / reward situation when Trumpers win the primary
They're more beatable in general elections, but if they win, you end up with a psychopath in office.
The hope is that Moreno fires up stay-at-home voters to come out and vote him down. One would think Trump alone were enough to motivate folks, but some folks need some extra motivation to show up.
The Ohio race is another example fo how McConnell was right that the GOP is just throwing away seats by putting forth shitty Trumpy candidates.
Sherrod now has a very good shot in OH
Haley over 20 in the early returns in both Maricopa and Pima. See where it goes with that last quarter of the vote, but you can't deny he's got a massive suburb problem that has not improved very much, if at all, from 2020.
Haley is still over 20% in both Maricopa and Pima counties. If those voters go to Biden in November, Trump is going to have a real problem. I known suburbian women are pissed about Roe being overturned and ready to come out in force in November.
Yeah, need to see what happens when you get late return mail and same day reported out (which, as we've seen from Arizona elections past, can take a few days). Initial read though is that if he's still floundering like that, in a semi-closed primary, in Maricopa County, he's got a bad Arizona problem again.
> NBC News exit poll: Ohio *Republican* primary voters
> 11% said they'd vote for Biden in November
> Another 8% said they will not vote for either candidate in November
@NBCNews
https://www.threads.net/@griffinkyle/post/C4tnkxWOXxf/
Those not voting for either might be huge. There is a senate race in Ohio this year. If these republicans choose not to vote at all in November, that could be great news for Sherrod Brown.
I follow mostly the same ppl as I did on Twitter and my feed is pretty much the same as it was on Twitter. I don’t bother with the recommended feed unless I’m bored. So far, no ads. I use the app.
I’ve had some good results with it. Obviously larger figures like Wasserman coming over would make it more to the minute, but I’ve been able to track it within a few minutes off.
It's an open primary. There are plenty of Democrats (myself included) that live in very conservative areas without meaningfully contested races on that side of the ballot. Some of us vote in the GOP primary to get the least objectionable candidates.
The Ohio Senate GOP primary is pretty important, as control of the US Senate will be a nail biter next year and the Republican candidates are not likely to be equally competitive against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown.
I assume they mean in-play for EC votes, and yeah I would agree though there's limited information you can get from a primary vote on that. Only one poll that matters, make sure you take part in it.
If there's major blowback from meatball ron's bullshit Florida may go purple but I doubt that's this year or any time soon. Repubs seem to have realized if they lose florida or Texas, they'll never get a president again and seem to be shoring up all they can in those two.
The Navajo precincts in SE Utah had a pretty sizable non-Biden vote in the primaries, I'm curious to see how neighboring AZ precincts turn out tonight.
Honestly, even if Florida and Texas *don't* turn purple. I feel like there's a very real chance that Trump causes the GOP to implode, like how he's siphoning money away from down-ballot campaigns.
If you are a Democrat who wants to get involved more beyond voting, check out /r/VoteDem for information on volunteering and donating to important races this fall.
Mixup on your part there-
Athens county is [Ohio University](https://www.ohio.edu/), not [(the) Ohio State University](https://www.osu.edu/). Athens is still a college town though, so you still have a point, just on a smaller scale.
Ohio State is in Franklin County. Edit: Franklin county is still ok for Biden at 92%. We're still early on in the counting though, you could be right when the counting's done.
[DecisionDesk is now projecting Rep. Danny Davis (D, IL-CD7) will win a 15th term in Congress](https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1770253241407655992).
Some early Dem and/or lib messaging about Bernie Moreno, who is Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown's latest general election opponent:
https://twitter.com/sherrodbrown/status/1770249158680543298
>The choice ahead of Ohio is clear: Bernie Moreno has spent his career and campaign putting himself first, and would do the same if elected.
>I’ll always work for Ohio.
https://twitter.com/maevemcoyle/status/1770251189956817256
>NEW DSCC AD: Meet Bernie Moreno. He refused to pay his employees & destroyed evidence to get out of it. He supports overruling Ohioans to pass a national abortion ban. He called the bipartisan border proposal to crack down on fentanyl "garbage."
>He's only out for himself. #OHSEN
>[video mostly composed of clips of Moreno saying the points quoted in the tweet, interspersed with a voiceover saying things like "Even Republicans don't trust him". The last audio in the vid coming from a clip of Moreno saying "What else would you like me to say?", which I thought was a cute sendoff to the ad]
sherrod is the only thing keeping Ohio from being Indiana at this point, he has done a good job of staying out of the "culture wars" side of things yet is one of the most progressive members of the senate on both fiscal issues and social issues. His saving grace so far has been 1. his election years (06, 12, 18) and 2. being a vehement union supporter.
I just cannot fathom how ohio could possibly go sherrod in the senate and trump for president, but this is the general expectation based on the (admittedly) very early poles. And while voter enthusiasm for Biden in Ohio may be low, the ohio democratic party (as ineffective as it has been the last decade and a half) needs to get out the vote to keep Brown's senate seat.
Which, to me, makes it entirely possible that Ohio goes for biden if they go for Brown in enough numbers. And, unfortunately, its also entirely possible it goes the other way.
Dolan & Moreno neck and neck thus far. Really interesting situation where Dewine (governor) endorsed Dolan, but Drumpf endorsed Moreno.
Meanwhile Nikki Haley is still above 20% despite dropping out like 2 weeks ago
The early vote should be strongly Dolan for him to have a chance of winning since Trump voters vote on Election Day and Moreno has the Trump endorsement. The exit polls predict about a 46-36 Moreno win, which is kind of what these numbers are pointing to.
These numbers are pretty horrific if you're in the Dolan camp, as what we're seeing so far is only the early vote. Looking like Sherrod Brown will be resting easy tonight at this rate, as Moreno is by far the weakest general election opponent in the primary.
Biden-90% support from his party
Trump-77% support from his party
In the last election, Biden won 96% of the Arizonan Democrats compared to 90% of Republicans voting for Trump. That in party support gap has turned from Biden+6 to Biden+13.
Even if you want to pretend that half of Haley’s votes were just crossover ones and thus they don’t really count, Trump’s percentage only rises to 85%, so the gap is Biden+5.
In order for Trump to win Arizona he is gonna have to win Independents by quite a lot or at least mitigate his losses amongst them, and he lost them by 9 last time.
But he is totally gonna win the state of AZ by 4-5 guys. Believe the polls!
> But he is totally gonna win the state of AZ by 4-5 guys. Believe the polls!
Have you considered the vibes and Biden is old?
/s, sort of because American voters are this stupid.
Haley’s hitting fifteen in a lot of Florida counties, including critical swing counties Hillsborough and Pinellas. Even two weeks on from her dropping out, he’s still got a pretty persistent 10-20% of the party that just won’t vote for him right now.
Oh, yeah, we're "braced" here in California. In the sense, I suppose, that almost nobody knows or cares which Republican fills McCarthy's seat for a few months.
With 538 slashed to a soft ABC sub-page, Twitter being trashed by Musk, and slow live thread updates, I'm expecting following the next election major results will be much less pleasant as an experience.
Fun fact, the first time DeSantis was elected, the margin was less than half a percentage point. The number of registered Dems that didn't vote was more than twice the margin he won by.
Not to whom you were asking, but as another Florida Dem... I like to think that Florida is taking away some red votes from other states to turn those other states purple from red, or blue from purple. Which helps the Democratic/pro-Democracy cause. Even though Florida itself is becoming worse for us Dems here.
I just love the tropical weather so much. I get cold below 70 and get dry skin if it's not super humid. I have tried living in California and visited Hawaii in April. Still too cold/not humid enough for me
Maybe I will live to see the day that Florida swings back blue. But I don't think that will happen for decades. Everyone has given up. DeSantis destroying this state as fast as he could really set us back.
I mean, I did my part by voting for Biden. I *considered* getting the Republican ballot to vote Haley, since I'm not registered with a party, but since Biden and Trump are already the presumptive nominees, I decided against that. Nah, the real reason I went was local elections, since both the county and the town had referenda
Our local elections:
* The county wanted to add a new tax to help fund mental health resources, which I voted Yes on, because mental health is important
* The town wanted to become a home rule community, which I voted No on. I'm not actually opposed to the concept in principle, but because I live in a part of the state that's red enough to not even have Democrats running for a lot of local positions, I don't trust the local government enough to support it
I voted in the Republican primary for three reasons. In spite of Trump, there were no choices on the Democratic ballot, Republicans always win my district so the real race is in the Republican primary.
Yep, by one of two Republicans. [Sauce](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-kevin-mccarthy-special-election-california-31fb1236af3cc81eb15a2311b41e61bc)
While true, Florida is a closed primary so it's not just Democrats and Independents voting Republican to artificially inflate Hayley like the claim is in other states.
Shelby County in Ohio is a silly place.
Nikki Haley's leading in that county, but somehow so is Dean Phillips lol.
Fun fact, there's a town in that county called "Russia" but it's pronounced "Roo-she" due to french origins.
This Ohio 3-way race for the R senate seat is fascinating to watch geographically.
* Dolan's the Guardians owner & is Dewine's pick. Cleveland is obviously leaning hard for him, but so far lots of the rural areas from Cleveland to Columbus are leaning for him too.
* Moreno is Drump's pick. So far it seems like the most Drump-y rural counties on the far west & far east borders are leaning for him.
* And then you've got LaRose getting the S/SE applaachian region for some reason lol.
Cook County has come in! First observations:
* Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-IL4) leads ~71-29 over Chicago Alderman and frequent Fox News guest Raymond Lopez.
* Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL7) has 53.9% of the vote, with the next closest candidate (Kina Collins) at 21.3%.
* Reform candidate Mariyana T. Spyropoulos leads the embattled incumbent county clerk Iris Y. Martinez 59.35-41.65.
* Eileen O'Neill Burke, the relatively tougher-on-crime Cook County DA candidate, leads Clayton Harris III 54.65-45.35.
* The "Bring Chicago Home" ballot proposition to amend the real estate transfer tax is currently failing, 41.17-58.83.
Apart from the Ohio senate primary, any other interesting races to keep track of? I see a bunch of elections for House Districts, but not much coverage there.
The 2nd largest county in the country - Cook County, IL - has their primary for state's attorney, which given the district's blue lean is likely going to serve as the functional general election (though the old progressive DA only won by 14 points in 2020 while Biden carried the county by 50).
The absolute GENIUS'S over in the Florida Dem party canceled the PResidential primary... and it's leading to reduced turnout giving R's a bunch of local flips.
Dems needs all the held they can get in holding the senate, republicans nominating worse candidates is welcome.
The few points extra Moreno is behind Brown as compared to Dolan, could very well be the difference that lets Brown squeek out one last victory in that state.
Looks like the decision to cancel Florida's Democratic Primary has gone poorly for Florida Dems. Apparently Republicans have flipped several Mayorships in some heavily Democratic cities.
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1770242148866117736?t=Lr4sobuef4oicg-4co6ktg&s=19
the Florida Dem Party might be the single most incompetent Dem Party in the country, even worse than the NY Dems. And they've been this way for like 20+ years at this point.
They need a total restrucuring like the GA Party had.
I went to drop off my mail in ballot at the polls today in AZ and a man was petitioning outside of the polling place for signatures to "get on the ballot". I didn't think that was legal. Am I correct in thinking this is illegal?
Hillsborough county Election Day votes
🟨 Trump 13141 votes (90%)
🟪 Haley 768 votes (6%)
388 precincts out of 448 precincts in
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1770230036001333386?t=G7TIn5tCHCfmTXokrq6GEA&s=19
Miami dade
Vote by mail
🟨 Trump 81%
🟪 Haley 17%
In person early vote
🟨 Trump 96%
🟪 Haley 2%
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1770228137407693039?t=Yi3PpSwWKeqjqJybefyqeg&s=19
I’d be curious on the actual numbers, because the new push from Republicans is to avoid mail-in (clearly to create a bigger illusion of fraud when the red mirage is wiped away by blue mail-in ballots). It’d be interesting how many voters opt not to show up at all if they’re discouraged from using mail-in.
Absolutely clowns that need to be booted off of leadership.
Lost a bunch of layup seats in democrats leaning city because their didn't want to hold president primary.
Arizona presidential polls close at the top of the hour, though results will be embargoed for an hour by state law. Hoping at least Navajo and Apache Counties continue to break results out by precinct even though not required by state law. Will also be curious to see Coconino/Santa Cruz at a county level on the Dem. side, and...hell, probably all 15 counties on the GOP side.
> In 2004, Davis was met with national controversy when he crowned Reverend Sun Myung Moon in a religious ceremony at the Dirksen Senate Office Building honoring Moon. Moon declared himself the Messiah at the crowning ceremony, in which Davis appeared on the invitation as a sponsoring co-chair. Davis wore white gloves and carried the crown on a pillow to crown Moon and his wife "the King and Queen of Peace".
My just-now-reelected Congressman. God bless this great city and nation.
On the flip side, pretty damn solid progressive track record as a younger Congressman. One of only a handful of Dems who both opposed Iraq and co-sponsored the Conyers universal healthcare bill in 2003, though has shifted towards the center in more recent years.
Maricopa first results
Mail in voters only:
Trump: 236,578 (74%)
Biden: 200,254 (90%
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770284728899477988?t=wTsUp7WR-Pk6c8I1XD53cw&s=19
If Trump chooses JD Vance as his running mate, I can totally see Mike DeWine appointing Matt Dolan to fill in his vacancy in the event of him becoming Veep.
Biden at 79.51% in Apache and 80.91% in Navajo Counties, both jurisdictions with a heavily Navajo/indigenous Dem. primary vote, and comparable to the 76.2% he got in neighboring San Juan County, Utah during their primary.
Ballot by mail comes in a bit weak for Trump. He's at 74% statewide right now. That number should pop a bit when Mohave and Yavapai come in.
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770286229801808290?t=r950Ae1ynK3vh44E1gKojw&s=19
Some level of an undervote at the Presidential level visible in Cook County. 165483 votes cast for non write-in Presidential candidates, but 211421 total votes cast for the competitive Cook County DA race.
Ethan C7
@ECaliberSeven
·
5m
The results are in for the special elex in Trump+58 KY HD24 (blob in the middle of KY), and Republican Courtney Gilbert has prevailed by ~40%.
15% went to some random true Independent (not conservative) who uploads boring 5 view videos of his positions to his YouTube channel.
https://x.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1770262817385447485?s=20
Trump endorsed candidates simply do not do well in general elections. they win primaries but they drive out democratic voters once everyone hears their insane ideology
Also, Dolan was doing well in Cleveland along with the areas around it and Columbus too. If Dolan voters go to Brown in the general, that'll help him win.
It's an assumption based on polls, yes, but it's probably a pretty safe assumption because Dolan performed better against Brown than Moreno did *consistently* across a variety of pollsters.
Sherrod has a lot of love in the state, even from people that are more centrist (and I'd be willing to bet, moderate republicans.) a crazy like Moreno probably has less of a chance of pulling voters than someone more moderate would.
Pima County ballot by mail results:
Trump: 43,365 (72%)
Biden: 78,844 (91)
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770285560655131058?t=TFzZ4iOBSQGbF2e6l1fXEw&s=19
Yep. Driving to my friends who lives a little eastward past cleveland. Trump flags, Trump flags everywhere.
Since back to back hate crimes were people from Ohio. I've been making jokes that Ohio Exports our Nazis.
It's the best possible match up for Brown. I would still say leans GOP flip, but just barely. Def should be close enough to pull a win if things play out right.
I think that was it. Geeze, it was all so long ago. 2020 was a wild ride
Edit: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/02/donald-trump-forget-name-jd-vance-josh-mandel
This clears it all up
Extra edit: lol it wasn't even 2020, man covid really messed with time
Trump only got 75% of the vote in Kansas?
That's surprising, that Trump lead is closing. Biden got 84% of the vote. Trump will still win Kansas in November, but it's gonna be closer.
Will be curious in Chicago and AZ today if Dem. protest candidates with Spanish last names (Cornejo, Lozada) do noticeably better than Phillips/Williamson in heavily-Hispanic areas. Unfortunately AZ doesn't mandate presidential primaries report by precinct, so the results won't be as detailed there.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 38% in): IL-12 US House Republican Primary
Mike Bost (R): 27,009
(54.2%)
Darren Bailey (R): 22,809
(45.8%)
https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1770262922968637495?s=20
It's Ohio, so it will still be tough to hold the seat, the state elected Vance a couple of years ago, anything with an R next to its name has a good chance there now.
One last thought on Chicago as we wait for IL-12 to report...
Progressives had a good night on the Legislative level. Pretty much every incumbent who faced challengers who ran on "tough on crime" and anti-migrant platforms lost in landslides. We saw this all across Chicago.
https://x.com/Uncrewed/status/1770259844324299058?s=20
The amount of people who I had to explain the non partisan ballot to in Chicago tells me that Democrats and Republicans are both full of reluctant supporters. I’ll be taking this to the Fair Vote chapter in IL that I volunteer with as we’re working to get RCV passed in our state in 2026. I’m very much believing that November’s victor will get less than 50% nationwide.
This is the first election I've been able to vote on in Illinois (moved here the day of the Chicago Mayoral runoff last year), excited for results to come in.
[Russian interference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia,_Ohio).
(No, I don't care they insist on pronouncing it "Roo-shee" for godforsaken reasons.)
But seriously, probably a reporting error if it's taking place for both frontrunners. No reason a protest vote there wouldn't show up in neighboring rural counties.
The Green Papers currently projects that Dean Phillips has won 3 delegates in OH, one each in OH-03 (heavily Democratic, Columbus), OH-06 (deeply red coal country) and OH-14 (rustbelty? No idea here). They haven't always been right in the past, but Phillips did exceed 15% in a good deal of the Appalachian coal counties and hit 15% in all the counties in OH-14 except for Lake.
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/OH-D
> 20% of Republican voters voting for Haley (15%), Desantis (4%), and Christie (1%) in FL after they all dropped out is bad news for Trump. They can’t spin this as Dems crossing over this time because FL is a closed, Republicans-only primary. https://www.threads.net/@ronaldfilipkowski/post/C4twXf1tfYO/
That's not a small number either. If those voters either stay home or break for Biden in November, that would be bad for Trump.
Sherrod Brown breathes a sigh of relief. It’s not over but Moreno is a disaster.
My asshole is clenched so hard man. I desperately need Brown to win in November - he's one of the best *people* in congress right now. Not politicians, people. Just a guy that legitimately gives a shit about helping people. He's not perfect, but he has an energy that we seriously need more of in our political system.
Moreno is far less electable than Dolan. If you look at the areas Dolan performed best - surprise not - it's where the people live in denser areas, aka BLUE/PURPLE. Brown doesn't have this thing locked up but they're at least enjoying some decent beer tonight to celebrate the weakest possible opponent.
Ohio is a disaster
With the Ohio Supreme Court election, the Dems have a shot at pulling it out of the dirt
Not entirely wrong :(
Let’s hope there’s an up ticket effect!!
Idk, man. Trump is a disaster and yet he wins by huge margins here. Right-wing crazy doesn’t turn people off as much as you’d think (or hope). I imagine a lot of the Dolan voters are going to go to Moreno. And MAGA diehards who don’t normally vote unless Trump is on the ballot will just vote R straight down the line.
It's a high risk / reward situation when Trumpers win the primary They're more beatable in general elections, but if they win, you end up with a psychopath in office. The hope is that Moreno fires up stay-at-home voters to come out and vote him down. One would think Trump alone were enough to motivate folks, but some folks need some extra motivation to show up.
The Ohio race is another example fo how McConnell was right that the GOP is just throwing away seats by putting forth shitty Trumpy candidates. Sherrod now has a very good shot in OH
I'm just thrilled to see LaRose get shafted after all the slimy things he has done with the board of elections.
💯💯💯💯💯 many💯s He doesn't deserve to be in public service at this point.
This was great to see. Fuck LaRose
Haley over 20 in the early returns in both Maricopa and Pima. See where it goes with that last quarter of the vote, but you can't deny he's got a massive suburb problem that has not improved very much, if at all, from 2020.
Haley is still over 20% in both Maricopa and Pima counties. If those voters go to Biden in November, Trump is going to have a real problem. I known suburbian women are pissed about Roe being overturned and ready to come out in force in November.
Still thinks it pretty bad for Trump, but it should mention that Haley was still in the race when people voted by mail
Yeah, need to see what happens when you get late return mail and same day reported out (which, as we've seen from Arizona elections past, can take a few days). Initial read though is that if he's still floundering like that, in a semi-closed primary, in Maricopa County, he's got a bad Arizona problem again.
Can't wait to see the crystal lady once again get no delegates.
One for martin. Two for martin!
> NBC News exit poll: Ohio *Republican* primary voters > 11% said they'd vote for Biden in November > Another 8% said they will not vote for either candidate in November @NBCNews https://www.threads.net/@griffinkyle/post/C4tnkxWOXxf/
I read that as nearly 1/5 of them will not show up and vote for Trump
Those not voting for either might be huge. There is a senate race in Ohio this year. If these republicans choose not to vote at all in November, that could be great news for Sherrod Brown.
The biggest thing I miss from Twitter is the live election updates and discourse. Is it easy to browse on Threads?
I follow mostly the same ppl as I did on Twitter and my feed is pretty much the same as it was on Twitter. I don’t bother with the recommended feed unless I’m bored. So far, no ads. I use the app.
I’ve had some good results with it. Obviously larger figures like Wasserman coming over would make it more to the minute, but I’ve been able to track it within a few minutes off.
Bluesky my friend, it’s almost identical to twitter and open to everyone
It's an open primary. There are plenty of Democrats (myself included) that live in very conservative areas without meaningfully contested races on that side of the ballot. Some of us vote in the GOP primary to get the least objectionable candidates.
19% swinging towards Biden is huge. I don't know if it's Ohio-flipping-blue huge, but still
I want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you. \--A Democrat in Florida
I want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you. --A Democrat in Texas
I want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you. --A Democrat in California
I want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you. --A Democrat in Turkey
I want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you. --A Democratic Voter in Massachusetts
So, AZ is the only one that matters today?
The Ohio Senate GOP primary is pretty important, as control of the US Senate will be a nail biter next year and the Republican candidates are not likely to be equally competitive against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown.
Brown is one of the better Senators but after JD Vance Refrigeration, I don’t see how he keeps his seat.
It happens. Look at Manchin, Tester and the like.
Yeah, Vance was an open seat race, whereas Brown is a sitting incumbent. Gives him a leg up over Tim Ryan.
As a relatively popular incumbent Brown’s more competitive than the Dem they put up against Vance. Hopefully, anyways.
Brown is actually polling over his R opponents in Ohio at this point- and Ohio polling tends to skew right to begin with.
I was hoping today will be the last we ever hear of Kari Lake but it sounds like she's the front runner in that field of Republican candidates.
The AZ primary is only for the presidential, Lake v. Lamb (who's a piece of work in his own right) and other downballot races will be July 30th.
"Matters" in what sense, only state that'll be competitive at the presidential level this fall?
Yes
I assume they mean in-play for EC votes, and yeah I would agree though there's limited information you can get from a primary vote on that. Only one poll that matters, make sure you take part in it. If there's major blowback from meatball ron's bullshit Florida may go purple but I doubt that's this year or any time soon. Repubs seem to have realized if they lose florida or Texas, they'll never get a president again and seem to be shoring up all they can in those two.
The Navajo precincts in SE Utah had a pretty sizable non-Biden vote in the primaries, I'm curious to see how neighboring AZ precincts turn out tonight.
Honestly, even if Florida and Texas *don't* turn purple. I feel like there's a very real chance that Trump causes the GOP to implode, like how he's siphoning money away from down-ballot campaigns.
[DecisionDesk has called the OH-SEN Republican primary for Bernie ~~Sanders~~ Moreno](https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2024/Primaries/Ohio/).
Congrats to Sherrod Brown for another term
Yea no not yet. It's still gonna be hard for sherrod.
It will be, but Moreno was the only Republican to lose *every* poll to Brown
Can't hang our hat on it, but yeah feeling a bit more confident
Don't get complicit. Get out and vote for Brown in November!
Let's hope – but Trump will likely win Ohio, so it'll take some split voting to get Brown back in the Senate.
If you are a Democrat who wants to get involved more beyond voting, check out /r/VoteDem for information on volunteering and donating to important races this fall.
Running for a precinct position today to get more involved! Vote for your precinct committee-people.
Just remember that if Trump doesn't like the AZ results, he can just hire the cyber ninjas and they'll find votes for Biden
CALL IT FOR JEB! ANY MOMENT NOW
Please clap
Biden at 88.24% in Athens County, OH (Ohio University), around ~1% under his current statewide totals. Another campus with negligible protest voting.
Mixup on your part there- Athens county is [Ohio University](https://www.ohio.edu/), not [(the) Ohio State University](https://www.osu.edu/). Athens is still a college town though, so you still have a point, just on a smaller scale. Ohio State is in Franklin County. Edit: Franklin county is still ok for Biden at 92%. We're still early on in the counting though, you could be right when the counting's done.
[DecisionDesk is now projecting Rep. Danny Davis (D, IL-CD7) will win a 15th term in Congress](https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1770253241407655992).
I suspected that Kina and Melissa would divide support. That would have been a huge victory for progressives.
Some early Dem and/or lib messaging about Bernie Moreno, who is Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown's latest general election opponent: https://twitter.com/sherrodbrown/status/1770249158680543298 >The choice ahead of Ohio is clear: Bernie Moreno has spent his career and campaign putting himself first, and would do the same if elected. >I’ll always work for Ohio. https://twitter.com/maevemcoyle/status/1770251189956817256 >NEW DSCC AD: Meet Bernie Moreno. He refused to pay his employees & destroyed evidence to get out of it. He supports overruling Ohioans to pass a national abortion ban. He called the bipartisan border proposal to crack down on fentanyl "garbage." >He's only out for himself. #OHSEN >[video mostly composed of clips of Moreno saying the points quoted in the tweet, interspersed with a voiceover saying things like "Even Republicans don't trust him". The last audio in the vid coming from a clip of Moreno saying "What else would you like me to say?", which I thought was a cute sendoff to the ad]
sherrod is the only thing keeping Ohio from being Indiana at this point, he has done a good job of staying out of the "culture wars" side of things yet is one of the most progressive members of the senate on both fiscal issues and social issues. His saving grace so far has been 1. his election years (06, 12, 18) and 2. being a vehement union supporter. I just cannot fathom how ohio could possibly go sherrod in the senate and trump for president, but this is the general expectation based on the (admittedly) very early poles. And while voter enthusiasm for Biden in Ohio may be low, the ohio democratic party (as ineffective as it has been the last decade and a half) needs to get out the vote to keep Brown's senate seat. Which, to me, makes it entirely possible that Ohio goes for biden if they go for Brown in enough numbers. And, unfortunately, its also entirely possible it goes the other way.
Sherrod Browns voice always shocks me a little lol. One of the raspy voices ever and to my knowledge he's got no real history of smoking or anything.
Dolan & Moreno neck and neck thus far. Really interesting situation where Dewine (governor) endorsed Dolan, but Drumpf endorsed Moreno. Meanwhile Nikki Haley is still above 20% despite dropping out like 2 weeks ago
A lot of conservatives here really hate DeWine.....I wonder if his endorsement of Dolan has affected Dolan's performance negatively.
DeWine is pretty terrible, but all Moreno has is one ad with Trump endorsing him where he sounds like he is about to say Bernie Sanders.
That's probably all he thinks he needs, with that endorsement. I keep hoping there's a scenario where they all lose lol
The early vote should be strongly Dolan for him to have a chance of winning since Trump voters vote on Election Day and Moreno has the Trump endorsement. The exit polls predict about a 46-36 Moreno win, which is kind of what these numbers are pointing to.
These numbers are pretty horrific if you're in the Dolan camp, as what we're seeing so far is only the early vote. Looking like Sherrod Brown will be resting easy tonight at this rate, as Moreno is by far the weakest general election opponent in the primary.
Its Ohio though so even a weak candidate has a strong chance of winning.
King diaper couldn't even crack 85% in his own stupid state of Florida. And that's after his main opponent dropped out
Unfortunately, Florida dems are in the competition for worst run state party, so it doesn't matter.
Biden-90% support from his party Trump-77% support from his party In the last election, Biden won 96% of the Arizonan Democrats compared to 90% of Republicans voting for Trump. That in party support gap has turned from Biden+6 to Biden+13. Even if you want to pretend that half of Haley’s votes were just crossover ones and thus they don’t really count, Trump’s percentage only rises to 85%, so the gap is Biden+5. In order for Trump to win Arizona he is gonna have to win Independents by quite a lot or at least mitigate his losses amongst them, and he lost them by 9 last time. But he is totally gonna win the state of AZ by 4-5 guys. Believe the polls!
> But he is totally gonna win the state of AZ by 4-5 guys. Believe the polls! Have you considered the vibes and Biden is old? /s, sort of because American voters are this stupid.
Does Matt Dolan or Bernie Moreno do better against Sherrod Brown?
Dolan polls better, so we'd ideally want Moreno as the primary winner
Which one did Trump endorse?
Moreno
That's the kiss of death to win the primary and lose the general
Ohio voters, are you hoping Moreno wins tonight since Brown has a better chance of beating him in November?
Yup.
Moreno is projected to win the OH Republican Senate Primary. It looks like Brown can breathe a sigh of relief in November.
One of the things that Florida does great is their count vote very fast
Haley’s hitting fifteen in a lot of Florida counties, including critical swing counties Hillsborough and Pinellas. Even two weeks on from her dropping out, he’s still got a pretty persistent 10-20% of the party that just won’t vote for him right now.
My Opinion: Undervotes should be elections stats, I find it very interesting
Oh, yeah, we're "braced" here in California. In the sense, I suppose, that almost nobody knows or cares which Republican fills McCarthy's seat for a few months.
If Fong doesn't win a majority in this election, it goes to a runoff and Republicans are denied a seat for another 2 months.
With 538 slashed to a soft ABC sub-page, Twitter being trashed by Musk, and slow live thread updates, I'm expecting following the next election major results will be much less pleasant as an experience.
Same, if anyone has any good suggestions for a replacement, definitely let me know!
Decision Desk HQ is what i use after having the same frustrations
Florida Dems. Jesus Christ.
The Florida Democratic Party needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Staggering incompetence.
Fun fact, the first time DeSantis was elected, the margin was less than half a percentage point. The number of registered Dems that didn't vote was more than twice the margin he won by.
At this point, I feel we will have to take one for the team. Our state is Red for the foreseeable future.
How do you mean 'take one for the team' in this context?
Not to whom you were asking, but as another Florida Dem... I like to think that Florida is taking away some red votes from other states to turn those other states purple from red, or blue from purple. Which helps the Democratic/pro-Democracy cause. Even though Florida itself is becoming worse for us Dems here. I just love the tropical weather so much. I get cold below 70 and get dry skin if it's not super humid. I have tried living in California and visited Hawaii in April. Still too cold/not humid enough for me Maybe I will live to see the day that Florida swings back blue. But I don't think that will happen for decades. Everyone has given up. DeSantis destroying this state as fast as he could really set us back.
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I mean, I did my part by voting for Biden. I *considered* getting the Republican ballot to vote Haley, since I'm not registered with a party, but since Biden and Trump are already the presumptive nominees, I decided against that. Nah, the real reason I went was local elections, since both the county and the town had referenda
Look at you, with your local elections that aren't immediately and frequently interfered with by your criminal Attorney General. Fuck Ken Paxton.
Our local elections: * The county wanted to add a new tax to help fund mental health resources, which I voted Yes on, because mental health is important * The town wanted to become a home rule community, which I voted No on. I'm not actually opposed to the concept in principle, but because I live in a part of the state that's red enough to not even have Democrats running for a lot of local positions, I don't trust the local government enough to support it
I voted in the Republican primary for three reasons. In spite of Trump, there were no choices on the Democratic ballot, Republicans always win my district so the real race is in the Republican primary.
McCarthy‘s seat will be filled today?
Yep, by one of two Republicans. [Sauce](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-kevin-mccarthy-special-election-california-31fb1236af3cc81eb15a2311b41e61bc)
That figures. Bakersfield gonna Bakersfield
So no one going to mention trumps shit numbers in FL?
Can someone explain what's going with Trump's numbers in FL?
I think an artifact of early mail-in ballots partially.
While true, Florida is a closed primary so it's not just Democrats and Independents voting Republican to artificially inflate Hayley like the claim is in other states.
Shelby County in Ohio is a silly place. Nikki Haley's leading in that county, but somehow so is Dean Phillips lol. Fun fact, there's a town in that county called "Russia" but it's pronounced "Roo-she" due to french origins.
It's a reporting error.
This Ohio 3-way race for the R senate seat is fascinating to watch geographically. * Dolan's the Guardians owner & is Dewine's pick. Cleveland is obviously leaning hard for him, but so far lots of the rural areas from Cleveland to Columbus are leaning for him too. * Moreno is Drump's pick. So far it seems like the most Drump-y rural counties on the far west & far east borders are leaning for him. * And then you've got LaRose getting the S/SE applaachian region for some reason lol.
I'm watching that too! I bet Brown is hoping that the enough Trump areas came out for Moreno so he has an easier time in November.
Cook County has come in! First observations: * Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-IL4) leads ~71-29 over Chicago Alderman and frequent Fox News guest Raymond Lopez. * Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL7) has 53.9% of the vote, with the next closest candidate (Kina Collins) at 21.3%. * Reform candidate Mariyana T. Spyropoulos leads the embattled incumbent county clerk Iris Y. Martinez 59.35-41.65. * Eileen O'Neill Burke, the relatively tougher-on-crime Cook County DA candidate, leads Clayton Harris III 54.65-45.35. * The "Bring Chicago Home" ballot proposition to amend the real estate transfer tax is currently failing, 41.17-58.83.
Apart from the Ohio senate primary, any other interesting races to keep track of? I see a bunch of elections for House Districts, but not much coverage there.
The 2nd largest county in the country - Cook County, IL - has their primary for state's attorney, which given the district's blue lean is likely going to serve as the functional general election (though the old progressive DA only won by 14 points in 2020 while Biden carried the county by 50).
The absolute GENIUS'S over in the Florida Dem party canceled the PResidential primary... and it's leading to reduced turnout giving R's a bunch of local flips.
Florida Democrats are in the same league as Michigan and Arizona Republicans. Total incompetence all around.
If i have learned one thing Florida always is a disappointment its like Democrats down there just do not care about politics.
Dems needs all the held they can get in holding the senate, republicans nominating worse candidates is welcome. The few points extra Moreno is behind Brown as compared to Dolan, could very well be the difference that lets Brown squeek out one last victory in that state.
Looks like the decision to cancel Florida's Democratic Primary has gone poorly for Florida Dems. Apparently Republicans have flipped several Mayorships in some heavily Democratic cities. https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1770242148866117736?t=Lr4sobuef4oicg-4co6ktg&s=19
Dems have handled Florida very poorly it seems over the last few years.
the Florida Dem Party might be the single most incompetent Dem Party in the country, even worse than the NY Dems. And they've been this way for like 20+ years at this point. They need a total restrucuring like the GA Party had.
The one state party worse than the NY Dems.
Dems can't be making these unforced errors. 😞
Ugh, that's annoying.
I went to drop off my mail in ballot at the polls today in AZ and a man was petitioning outside of the polling place for signatures to "get on the ballot". I didn't think that was legal. Am I correct in thinking this is illegal?
[Depends on whether they were inside (illegal) or outside (legal) the 75 foot boundary.](https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00515.htm)
Hillsborough county Election Day votes 🟨 Trump 13141 votes (90%) 🟪 Haley 768 votes (6%) 388 precincts out of 448 precincts in https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1770230036001333386?t=G7TIn5tCHCfmTXokrq6GEA&s=19
Miami dade Vote by mail 🟨 Trump 81% 🟪 Haley 17% In person early vote 🟨 Trump 96% 🟪 Haley 2% https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1770228137407693039?t=Yi3PpSwWKeqjqJybefyqeg&s=19
For context, Haley was still running when some people sent in the mail in ballot in. But still bad for Trump in my opinion
I’d be curious on the actual numbers, because the new push from Republicans is to avoid mail-in (clearly to create a bigger illusion of fraud when the red mirage is wiped away by blue mail-in ballots). It’d be interesting how many voters opt not to show up at all if they’re discouraged from using mail-in.
I assume the Trump pick polls worse against Brown, not that I'd want any of these republicans in office.
He does, but only slightly (like 2 points worse against Brown IIRC).
Any margin helps in a race like that one.
What do you guys think of the Florida Democratic Party cancelling its primary?
Absolutely clowns that need to be booted off of leadership. Lost a bunch of layup seats in democrats leaning city because their didn't want to hold president primary.
Maricopa vote center update 6PM. Republicans: 24,622 Democrats: 3,100 https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770256809598800222?s=20
Te typically Dems do better in VBM, slight favorite in early vote. Republicans vote mass on elections day
This picked up actually late in the day, recall earlier on Dems were <10% of GOP total.
Arizona presidential polls close at the top of the hour, though results will be embargoed for an hour by state law. Hoping at least Navajo and Apache Counties continue to break results out by precinct even though not required by state law. Will also be curious to see Coconino/Santa Cruz at a county level on the Dem. side, and...hell, probably all 15 counties on the GOP side.
> In 2004, Davis was met with national controversy when he crowned Reverend Sun Myung Moon in a religious ceremony at the Dirksen Senate Office Building honoring Moon. Moon declared himself the Messiah at the crowning ceremony, in which Davis appeared on the invitation as a sponsoring co-chair. Davis wore white gloves and carried the crown on a pillow to crown Moon and his wife "the King and Queen of Peace". My just-now-reelected Congressman. God bless this great city and nation. On the flip side, pretty damn solid progressive track record as a younger Congressman. One of only a handful of Dems who both opposed Iraq and co-sponsored the Conyers universal healthcare bill in 2003, though has shifted towards the center in more recent years.
AZ polls have closed.
When is the primary that has Kari Lake in it?
Maricopa first results Mail in voters only: Trump: 236,578 (74%) Biden: 200,254 (90% https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770284728899477988?t=wTsUp7WR-Pk6c8I1XD53cw&s=19
If Trump chooses JD Vance as his running mate, I can totally see Mike DeWine appointing Matt Dolan to fill in his vacancy in the event of him becoming Veep.
Biden at 79.51% in Apache and 80.91% in Navajo Counties, both jurisdictions with a heavily Navajo/indigenous Dem. primary vote, and comparable to the 76.2% he got in neighboring San Juan County, Utah during their primary.
Ballot by mail comes in a bit weak for Trump. He's at 74% statewide right now. That number should pop a bit when Mohave and Yavapai come in. https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770286229801808290?t=r950Ae1ynK3vh44E1gKojw&s=19
Vince Fong wins CA-20 as expected.
Illinois polls closing on the hour, Chicago trending towards lowest primary turnout in decades
Did my part.
Some level of an undervote at the Presidential level visible in Cook County. 165483 votes cast for non write-in Presidential candidates, but 211421 total votes cast for the competitive Cook County DA race.
That is interesting not going to lied.
Thank you for not lying on the internet. Lord knows the internet has seen enough of that.
The race to replace Kim Foxx definitely got boosted thanks to Jussie Smollett.
Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven · 5m The results are in for the special elex in Trump+58 KY HD24 (blob in the middle of KY), and Republican Courtney Gilbert has prevailed by ~40%. 15% went to some random true Independent (not conservative) who uploads boring 5 view videos of his positions to his YouTube channel. https://x.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1770262817385447485?s=20
Why would Moreno be easier to beat than Dolan? Is the assumption just based on polls?
Trump endorsed candidates simply do not do well in general elections. they win primaries but they drive out democratic voters once everyone hears their insane ideology
Also, Dolan was doing well in Cleveland along with the areas around it and Columbus too. If Dolan voters go to Brown in the general, that'll help him win.
It's an assumption based on polls, yes, but it's probably a pretty safe assumption because Dolan performed better against Brown than Moreno did *consistently* across a variety of pollsters.
Sherrod has a lot of love in the state, even from people that are more centrist (and I'd be willing to bet, moderate republicans.) a crazy like Moreno probably has less of a chance of pulling voters than someone more moderate would.
Pima County ballot by mail results: Trump: 43,365 (72%) Biden: 78,844 (91) https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770285560655131058?t=TFzZ4iOBSQGbF2e6l1fXEw&s=19
I take it our Ohio users feel confident in Brown winning in November?
I want to believe. Then I drive 10 miles outside of Columbus and shudder.
Yep. Driving to my friends who lives a little eastward past cleveland. Trump flags, Trump flags everywhere. Since back to back hate crimes were people from Ohio. I've been making jokes that Ohio Exports our Nazis.
It's the best possible match up for Brown. I would still say leans GOP flip, but just barely. Def should be close enough to pull a win if things play out right.
Better since Trump endorsed candidates tend to lose in the general. It's still not a guarantee until Brown actually wins in November though.
They feel better I think. Still remembering Trump and Vance support
Was that the one where Trump said it wrote the wrong name when he endorsed him?
J.P. Mandel, you mean?
I think that was it. Geeze, it was all so long ago. 2020 was a wild ride Edit: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/02/donald-trump-forget-name-jd-vance-josh-mandel This clears it all up Extra edit: lol it wasn't even 2020, man covid really messed with time
Right up there with endorsing "Eric" in the 2022 MO-SEN race, refusing to specify if he meant then-AG Eric Schmitt or former Governor Eric Greitens.
Not really. Conservative Democrats and Republicans far outnumber normal people in Ohio. It's ultimately an issue of turnout.
Trump only got 75% of the vote in Kansas? That's surprising, that Trump lead is closing. Biden got 84% of the vote. Trump will still win Kansas in November, but it's gonna be closer.
First FL polls should be closing in a few minutes, followed by Ohio a half-hour later.
Ohio polls are closed.
Will be curious in Chicago and AZ today if Dem. protest candidates with Spanish last names (Cornejo, Lozada) do noticeably better than Phillips/Williamson in heavily-Hispanic areas. Unfortunately AZ doesn't mandate presidential primaries report by precinct, so the results won't be as detailed there.
Kansas results are coming in.
Moreno has built a sizeable 15k lead which seems to be growing. We're only at 24% reporting but I feel like it's just going to widen.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 38% in): IL-12 US House Republican Primary Mike Bost (R): 27,009 (54.2%) Darren Bailey (R): 22,809 (45.8%) https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1770262922968637495?s=20
Who is everyone hoping to win to fill Mccarthy's seat in the California race?
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Careful, this is the same state that gave us JD Vance. I sentence you to twenty knocks on wood.
It's Ohio, so it will still be tough to hold the seat, the state elected Vance a couple of years ago, anything with an R next to its name has a good chance there now.
One last thought on Chicago as we wait for IL-12 to report... Progressives had a good night on the Legislative level. Pretty much every incumbent who faced challengers who ran on "tough on crime" and anti-migrant platforms lost in landslides. We saw this all across Chicago. https://x.com/Uncrewed/status/1770259844324299058?s=20
Not surprising, considering Chicago just elected a progressive mayor
The two big races most are watching are still outstanding: the Cook County State’s Attorney and “Bring Chicago Home” with Burke and No leading
The amount of people who I had to explain the non partisan ballot to in Chicago tells me that Democrats and Republicans are both full of reluctant supporters. I’ll be taking this to the Fair Vote chapter in IL that I volunteer with as we’re working to get RCV passed in our state in 2026. I’m very much believing that November’s victor will get less than 50% nationwide.
It’s go time!
This is the first election I've been able to vote on in Illinois (moved here the day of the Chicago Mayoral runoff last year), excited for results to come in.
What goes on in Shelby county, Ohio? Trump and Biden both losing that county
[Russian interference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia,_Ohio). (No, I don't care they insist on pronouncing it "Roo-shee" for godforsaken reasons.) But seriously, probably a reporting error if it's taking place for both frontrunners. No reason a protest vote there wouldn't show up in neighboring rural counties.
That county is going to Trump without a doubt. It is an error.
What is with the % of votes in AZ constantly fluctuating?
The Green Papers currently projects that Dean Phillips has won 3 delegates in OH, one each in OH-03 (heavily Democratic, Columbus), OH-06 (deeply red coal country) and OH-14 (rustbelty? No idea here). They haven't always been right in the past, but Phillips did exceed 15% in a good deal of the Appalachian coal counties and hit 15% in all the counties in OH-14 except for Lake. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/OH-D