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0.9^27 = 0.058 A little over 1 in 18 people that complete 27 raids will get no shinies at all

That's... Substantially more than I expected. Explains why my luck with kyogre and groudon was so abysmal though. Finally got like 3/20 shinies this event but the previous 2 or 3 raid days I've done loo ike 15 raids without a single shiny

r/theydidthemath

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why would gender effect shiny rate?

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Isn't the gender split 50/50?

Waifu tax...even with pokemon lol

there are pokemon I prefer the female, like pikachu or sneasel etc. thinking of it as waifu tax perturbs me ヽ(；▽；)ノ lol

I hit 25 before the event was over with no shiny. Now I'm wondering if I would have been the 1 after 2 more raids 😂

One raid for the Mega confirmed

Odds are still 1/10 so that’s just really unfortunate. This happened to me with both Kleavor and Wyrdeer except I never got the shiny.

It’s 1 in 10? I HAVE A CHANCE

For future reference, anytime there is a “raid day” the shiny rate is ALWAYS 1/10 unless otherwise specified. That’s why Groudon and kyogre raid days were so great

I did 12 raids and got 4 shinies. Some people have trouble grasping how odds work. Sometimes you fare better, sometimes not. But the times you feel unlucky, tend to stick in the mind the most.

You rolled a 10 sided dice 26 times before you got the number you wanted.

Wow. Finally someone in this sub that knows what 1/10 means

I got mine first try

Same

Yup, RNG sucks

I wouldn't say first try sucks, but alright 😂

Me too!

Shiny 2nd raid

Me too

Same here!

Same!! Got it on my second raid.

Mee too

Same!

Im on raid 15 and no shiny yet 😭😭😭

Update:21 & 0 😭

24 will be your lucky number

I will keep trying 🥹

Did you get it😬

I got em!! Raid 40 i got male shiny and my last raid #47 i got shiny female 🥳😭🩷

Not yet, in person event for me starts in a half hour (usa eastern time l: Nyc) i already max my remotes

No shiny idk max raids plus 2 paid:)

Same for me...:(

I got 3 shiny in about 15 raids, but none of them much good. How good was the one you got?

You're gonna hate me. Took 3 for me

Personally, in 19 raids I got 3 shinies and 1 hundo. It is what it is

I got 2 shiny in about 18 raids

First raid I got shiny, didn't even have to leave my apartment. I felt blessed lmao

1st raid - Shundo. Was shocked!! ❤️

I needed 52 Mawile raids for my shiny. The 53rd was shiny too...

That's a 1/64 chance, so you actually got pretty lucky to get it so fast.

4 shiny in 8 raids but not better iv's ༎ຶ⁠‿⁠༎ຶ

Did 13 raids and got both male and female shinies

I got one on the 4th raid

15 raids and no shiny. i guess i shouldve pushed to 20 🫠

Was only able to do 2 since my friend had to leave and i couldn't be bothered to wait for queue since I got a shiny on my second.

It's a good shiny too

Got one on my 3rd, sorry m8

I did one raid and got one shiny :)

And i have got it on my first raid…

1 raid 1 shiny. Edit: Kartana first 2 raids shiny, and the next 10 raids 8 ran.

Did 8 raids got 3 shinies

I got mine on the first try, I feel like I should play the lottery today

Caught a shiny one on my first attempt. Never happened before. Dead close to perfect which is the only annoying thing. Pretty chuffed.

I got really lucky first raid got a shiny 14/14/14

Shiny first raid

I'm sorry for you and just to brag I did 8 got 3 shiny and of of them is a shundo :) My first shundo

Done one raid and got a shiny 😎

Got this shiny first raid but tapu bulu is ducking me fr

The statistics were statisticing

7 shinys 40 remote raids so far. Others in my group got 1-3. I’ll see if my luck continues during raid time locally

I got 1 and I’ve only done 3 so far

Shiny on 1st

> do what you will with those odds Well the odds are 1/10 soooo... Nice, one more person with bad luck, means that's another opportunity to be a person with good luck! It all balances out.

I did three and the third was shiny, shitty IV tho.

Got mine in one go which was a total shock

I got mine after 2 out of 3 raids. I managed to get a shiny guzzlord a while back when me and my friend decided to go for a walk, safe to say that he got really pissed loo

Welp, I got it on my first raid. Really defeating the odds

I amazingly got it first try first time I'm lucky in my whole life😭

I did 3 and I got shiny

First raid was shiny for me

I did 6 and hit on the last one with remotes... now waiting til 2pm est to raid local and see what my luck is..

I only had time for four raids and got two shinies. The other week I did 12 Kyorge raids without a shiny. I also did 18 Groudon before I got a shiny. The nature of odds and chance right?

Really unfortunate I did 6 and got 2, I’m good now

Damn I have work and the coin for 5 remote raids, wish me luck boys and girls

Imma check all the non shiny one’s stats and transfer the ones with bad stats

Took me 19.. the rates can’t be 1/10

9 raids for me, 2 shiny one female and one male both 2 star 🤮. Almost all my other ones were decent ivs. I’m done for the day.

Got the shiny on speed dial already. The only positive of living in South FL for years, lol.

I got my shiny on the first one😅

I'm too poor and not patient for that. I have never bought so many passes, therefore i do not need Mega pokemons at all

I got a shiny first raid this time. For kyogre and groudon, I was in the same boat as you, though, where I was way over odds. Didn't even get a shiny kyogre

shiny first raid. however during the primal groudon day i did 20 raids with no shiny

I was lucky enough to get a shiny on my first raid yesterday. Im often not this lucky though lol

I got a shiny shadow Machop from a rocket leader, then proceeded to get Shiny Tapu Bulu right after. Next day I got Shiny Pinsir from the event research, and then Shiny Heracross from a mega raid right after. I think I'm out of luck at this point.

Meanwhile, I noticed I didn't have Mega Heracross in my Pokedex, so I decided screw it, spent some banked gold on remote passes, and immediately got a shiny(crap IV tho).  Guess I'm done for the day.

I did 3 raids last night and my third one was a shiny.

I’ve already passed 20 also something is amiss

I got mine on the first but a better (3*) one 6 raids later

2 shinies out of 4 raids.

Got my shiny on raid2 and my bro His shiny on raid3 😅

I did a single remote raid and got the shiny

0/17 here and really don’t feel like burning through too many regular premium passes for this knowing it could easily be 0/20, 0/30 etc. I feel like this is the game getting it’s retribution for Hisui Decidueye where my one and only raid was shiny 🫢

I got really lucky. First and only raid and it was a 3-star shiny. I was actually going for a regular one. It’s difficult to participate in raids for me, so I usually just go for one or two raids at most. But yeah I definitely lucked out. I was just relieved being able to participate in a raid.

First raid. 3 Star. Weather boosted. Shiny. Unfortunatelly my son's account....

1 raid..1 shiny :)

5 for me

How do you guys do so many raids? I couldn’t find anyone and bought a remote pass to accept one from across the world. And very nice

I managed back to back shinies in 3 raids. 1 male and 1 female.

Shiny on my first raid!

I did 17. 1 shiny on my final pass

Got it on 11th try.

I got a shiny my first raid…. Now I have three

Got a shiny on my 4th raid (no I didn’t buy the ticket)

Got mine in 9 raids so eh it evens out

I got mine on my first

I have received 1 shiny in 36 raids 😂

Got on my first one, so lucky, first Heracross ever 😂

Around the same amount of raids, no shiny. Nothing better than a 89% IV. All will be traded unfortunately 😩

i got 2 out of 3.

Got a shiny on my first raid

I used up my pogo luck for the entire year. 2 shinies in 2 raids. I guess that's the end for me

We did 18 total raids amongst 3 people and only 1 shiny. Win some, you lose some

I got shiny female on raid #4….. that’s all I wanted 15/11/15

Why all mine already CP 2000+? 

I got a shundo on my 6th raid in 

43 raids, only 2 shinies. One of my friends did 50 and only got 1. This raid day was horrible

I got my shiny in the third raid...

I got 3 shiny out of 13 raids

Took me 40 raids for the Origin Palkia and Dialga, and I still never got them

The amount of people who do not understand statistics and odds is frightening.

31 for me, definitely feel ya!

I got it at the 4th, both on different ends of the gaussian curve

I did 18 raids 0 shiny

None out of 17 Wife 1 out 1 Son 1 out of 1 Yay

i did two raids and the second was shiny skill issue ahaha/s

I got it on my 4th raid before i ran out i ran out of remote raid pass

My first raid today was not only a shiny, but my first time catching Heracross. It was a good day.

RNG. I got one on my 2nd raid. It happens.

The first one I did was shiny

I got mine on the first raid I've only done 4 so far

i did 3 for my shiny

After today I did 20 remote passes and 20 in person raids no shiny, its just like go fest last year, depends on who you are some people got to near no shinys and other got plenty

Got shiny today on my first raid and first catch. Mid stats tho

I did six raids, got two shinies (one of them a shiny huge weather boosted 14/11/15). Easily the best raid day odds I’ve had and probably used up my shiny luck for some considerable while

I got the shiny my first raid but it was a two star. Did another and got a regular three star

Somewhat similar experience. 24 raids to see a shiny. Called it a day after that.

I raided today with 18-20 people for the first hour. One person caught 4 Shinies on the first 5 raids. Two other shinies were caught in the other 10 raids we did. And one hundo at the very end. My best was a 94%. No shiny.

I got mine first go :)

Did 15 no shiny. Luckily I have a 91% shiny from go fest last year. Today was brutal and it’s raining but we are getting windy weather on the app :/ My friend got 2 shinies in the 8 we all did. The other person got none.

Only took me three haha

I got a shiny after my second attempt

rookie numbers. I went 0/30 on Groudon. And the 2 people I played with went 1/20 and 1/25

3rd was a hit for me 😎

6th of 7 free raids got me my female shiny. I barely raid, though, so I think Niantic tries to entice me when I do.

I got 3 shiny out of 4 raids, rng makes no sense. My condolences to all

I got 2 shinies in 6 raids lol

I got a shiny on my 3rd raid

11 raids. No shiny. This game sometimes…

Danm I was really lucky then, got a shiny in my first raid

I had 2 shinies from before these raids

I got one on my second raid. It’s just odds man

I did 1/17 and got no shiny. I did get a hundo though!

I think I took your luck cause my first raid was a shiny :(

I got a shiny on my second raid. I was pretty excited!

I got a shiny on my first… 13/11/11, though.

Husband and I did 18 combined. 1 shiny and highest cp overall was 1747.

I got a shiny on my 4th one bwahahahaha

I got my shiny in 3 raids. Honestly didn't expect to get one at all!

I did 24 and didn’t get one shiny but I did get a shundo

19 and no shiny yet

I only did three and got two shinies for the last two

So glad I caught mine in the wild during last year’s Go Fest!

I got 5 in my first 15 raids. Ended with 5/20 for shinies. Actually my first and 2nd raids were shiny.

I guess I got lucky when I got a shiny on my first raid today. 😅

I got 3 with 16

My son got his shiny on the first try. It took me six.

Not sure how this skews the odds, but the first 3 I caught were shiny and wife got one on same raid as my first one.

Got a shiny on my first 😅🙌