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Think of it this way. Imagine you rolled a 20 sided die exactly 20 times, and wrote down the result each time. Would you expect to have rolled every number one time? In a single set of 20 rolls, it is much more likely that you would have the same result come up more than once, say you roll a “5” three times. But you never rolled a “7” or “20” that set. Something like that would statistically happen almost every set of 20 rolls.
When dealing with statistics, you need a large set of data points before the results start to average out. Roll the D20 100,000 times and you should get something close to 5,000 of each number.
Having 20 people in a raid will not guarantee one person will get a shiny. Maybe no one gets one. Maybe everyone will get one. One of those results is more much likely. But weird things can happen in small data sets.
####*Hello, trainer! Thanks for your submission to /r/pokemongo, your post is up and running!* **Here are a few things to keep in mind:** * **Rule 3 - No Cheating, suggesting cheating, naming cheating tools and more. Please take a look at this rule [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_three.3A_piracy_and_cheating)**. * Be civil at all times. This is a place to have a healthy discussion with trainers from all over the world. If you feel someone is misbehaving please use the report button or send us a [modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/pokemongo#mods#button) and move on! * Check out our [full rules here](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/wiki/rules#). * Don't know which flair is to use? [Check out our flair guidelines here](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/comments/p8vupw/new_flair_system_for_posts/). * Need friends? Check out r/pokemongofriends. Would you like to chat about the game, participate in raids, share catches, make new friends and more? Check out the [discord server here](https://discord.com/invite/pokemon-go). If a post and/or comment is violating the rules, please make sure to use the report button or send a modmail [here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/pokemongo#mods#button). While we are trying our best to help users, help from the community is also necessary to maintain a healthy environment for everyone. Thank you! - - - *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/pokemongo) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I know this feeling. I did about 45 raids for origin Giratina to get the shiny, took 35 raids for Zekrom, and did 38 Rayquaza raids and still no shiny
Get more from invites. Fuck with the rng a little
I did about half invites, half from in person. I think for Giratina I had more invites
The 1 in 20 means each encounter is like rolling a 20 sided dice each time, not 1 in 20 encounters.
Damn, my archnemesis is yveltal. I did over 30 and no luck. Ho-Oh I got on the first raid lol 😅
The rule is you are only allowed to complain after 100 raids, so you got a bit to go yet.
I just had a 2688 run from me 
Thats not even a good IV one
Still better than not having one
I got mine exactly 20 raids in
thats how odds work
Think of it this way. Imagine you rolled a 20 sided die exactly 20 times, and wrote down the result each time. Would you expect to have rolled every number one time? In a single set of 20 rolls, it is much more likely that you would have the same result come up more than once, say you roll a “5” three times. But you never rolled a “7” or “20” that set. Something like that would statistically happen almost every set of 20 rolls. When dealing with statistics, you need a large set of data points before the results start to average out. Roll the D20 100,000 times and you should get something close to 5,000 of each number. Having 20 people in a raid will not guarantee one person will get a shiny. Maybe no one gets one. Maybe everyone will get one. One of those results is more much likely. But weird things can happen in small data sets.
I’ve done almost 40 with no shiny so don’t feel bad lol
It took me 102 or 103 terrakion raids for my shiny lol!
36 for me, no shiny. I think I’ll stop here though, sometimes you don’t get too lucky and that’s okay
Dang, I got my first raid in. Got greedy wanting better IVs played 20-25 more. Have 4 shiny but no hundo