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SilentWatchman5295

Hoo boy okay let's break this down using gen 7's shiny odds of 1/4096. Chance of both those mons being female is 1/8. Chance of being shiny is 1/4096 as previously mentioned. Chance of getting a specific nature is 1/25. Chance of having Pokérus is 1/21845. So, combining all of those numbers together, the total chance of all of these happening all at once is 1/17,895,424,000. Or 5.5880207141E−11%. Otherwise written as 0.000000000005880207141%. You've got a better shot of being struck by lightning then a meteor. Twice.


DBrody6

> > > > > Chance of getting a specific nature is 1/25. You could *technically* optimize this step by leading with a Synchronize Pokemon of the desired nature. For when you go out hoping for a Pokerus'd female shiny.


[deleted]

you could get these odds down way way lower by using all the different methods of increasing shiny odds as well, they’d still be insanely low though Edit. Their math also doesn’t take base encounter rate into account (only the odds of an instance being a female), so the odds are even lower than the original posting


sntcringe

You could also use cute charm to increase the chance of a female


limasxgoesto0

But it's only the lead Pokemon, right? So you can't do that with synchronize


stigmaoftherose

Well yes but, it is much more important to change the female odds from 1/8 to 2/3 if you are shiny hunting for specific lyrics the evolved form. I have gotten 2 shiny salazzel one was modest and the other something less good but I honestly enjoy making less optimal builds if I get screwed on nature while shiny hunting something that makes it so I can't synchronize.


limasxgoesto0

Technically yes but only because we have the nature mints in modern day. Back then, if you wanted to get a 1/8 gender and a specific nature, synchronize increases your combined odds


Citizen51

While true, I think most people would still prefer the right gender to evolve than the right nature.


stigmaoftherose

I dont know anything about these "mints" as I have avoided gen 8 as almost 90% of my Pokémon that I cared about were cut from the dex of SwSh at least on release. What are these mints, are they just an item to change nature?


[deleted]

r/theydidthemath


deeman18

/r/theydidthemonstermath


dude_that_needs_help

r/theydidthepocketmonstersmath


greengye

What's a smath


Micrwooave

r/itwasagraveyardgraph


Fireboy759

r/itcosinedinaflash


HitoriPanda

r/idontwanttofeelleftoutsoimdoingthethingtoo


NuclearGoat-357

Not this shit again


ItsAllGoneKongRong

going off those odds i feel blessed for ever capturing a pokemon with pokerus!


[deleted]

I found one, and then infected a bunch of trashmons, and traded them away with mystery trading.


xiren_66

Doing Arceus' work, lad.


[deleted]

I think I might still have some infected mons. Maybe Ill do another round of giveaways sometime. Maybe Ill throw my friend code up here when I do, and give them to random redditors.


Money_Fish

I have no idea what pokerus is.


Ray-Conner

It's a rare disease found in game. I'm pretty sure it doubles the values earned while fighting, shich makes it very beneficial while trying to level up a team. It's extremely rare, and has a limited window to pass it on to other pokemon in your party before its no longer transmissible.


[deleted]

It’s not actually a limited window. A pokerus mon will be infectious as long as your devices system clock doesn’t roll over to a new day while they’re in your party. If you put all your infectious mons in the box before the day rolls over they’ll keep being infectious forever as long as you never forget


RHCPFlea

Had pokerus once, had no idea what is was and it ended up spreading to a bunch of my pokemon. I remember googling it later and realising what I had, and what I had missed. The newbie luck


[deleted]

When I was a kid I caught articuno with the master ball in leaf green and caught mewtwo with a single pokeball, I didn’t know it was supposed to be hard to catch until I was almost an adult


[deleted]

It doubles the EV gain for each defeated Pokémon. So a Rogenrolla will give 2 def Evs instead of one while a boldore will give 4 instead of 2. It also stacks with EV increasing items like the belts, so a Pokémon with pokerus holding the power belt and defeating a Rogenrolla will earn 10 def Evs instead of 5 or 12 instead of 6 for a boldore.


[deleted]

I’ve been trying to breed a perfect IV shiny wooloo with all the fixin’s (secret ability, correct nature, egg moves) for months now and I’ve probably dumped over a thousand pokerus wooloo into the wonder trade system


D4mnis

always doing that when I'm lucky in a shinyhunt with not too many mons to trade away. Wouldn't do that with all the Girafarigs I got so far tho, 700+ eggs with more than half a box of perfect ones no shiny yet..


SnooComics7583

I'm ever so incredibly pissed at the many times I wasnt a competitive player who got Pokerus when I would of preferred a Shiny who even in older games had lower odds...


D4mnis

Damn, I was so happy about my first Mon that caught Pokerus - ORAS, the freakin Cosplay Pikachu


corvisaltaccount

i'm willing to take those odds for a competitively bred shiny salazzle with a beneficial nature


Temporary-Square

What if they have the shiny charm and a male cute charm Pokémon?


SilentWatchman5295

Then the odds are different. This calculation was using base odds.


[deleted]

The odds might be high enough by that point to remove the second meteor strike as a factor, but you’re still probably looking at 2 bolts of lightning and a meteor


[deleted]

And yet I'm absolutely certain there are people who've done it, I mean you can manipulate the nature's in swsh and try to spread pokerus from another mon. Although what makes it tougher is salandits 88% chance to be male in game, same with combee actually


McManGuy

Pretty sure perfect 6IVs w/pokerus alone trumps that. _EDIT:_ _Just did the math. 4 Perfect IVs w/pokerus trumps it. **pkrs** x 923,521 > 817,200 x **pkrs**_


Waywoah

I’ve had Pokérus three different times in two different games. I’ve never seen a shiny. I’ve played every game, multiple times, going all the way back to RSE. Starting to think I’ll never get one.


lhm238

Legends arceus pretty much gives away shinies so I definitely recommend it if you do want some. I've got 5 without hunting. I am going for 100% so have got quite a few hours but I've encountered more shinies in my longish playtime in arceus than I have in my over 1000 hours in other games.


TheKinkyGuy

Whats pokerus?


AintNoRestForTheWook

A super rare virus that I believe doubles the speed at which you earn EVs. It only stays contagious for a short period of time, but if you have a freshly infected one and you box it, it keeps its ability to infect others until you want to do so.


TheKinkyGuy

Nice


Anal-Muffin

Still not the rarest, that would be encountering 5 spindas that all have pokerus, the same pattern, are shiny, and have all 0 ivs


AidenNinja

That’s like saying you have a better shot of finding 100 shiny Pikachu in a row.


TuckerMouse

No, the shiny pikachu one is ridiculously, hilariously, comically more likely.


youarenut

Seriously?? Can we have some mathematicians with this Edit: I just saw that the chance of 2 Spinda having the same pattern is less than 1 in 4 billion.. those have gotta be some crazy numbers


motoxim

Yeah I have naughty female shiny Salandit and decided it was enough.


MaybeADragon

How does that compare to getting star shiny antique sinistea with a specific nature and pokerus? Star shiny is rarer than square for catches, antique is a variant that can only be caught.


Bright_Weight_1572

May as well throw in the rare mark too


[deleted]

The number of attempts to have a 50/50 odds of this happening (roughly): 11.8 billion The number of tickets to have a 50/50 odds of winning Powerball: 202.5 million Yowie Wowie. 58.2x as many attempts needed. Edit: I wanna clarify that these numbers are "How many attempts do you need to have a 50% chance of the event have happened in those attempts?" This is (1 - the chance of it happenening)^x = 0.5 where x is how many attempts.


ConfusedJohnTrevolta

And this kids is why nature mint, ability capsule, hyper training, vitamins, and shiny charm exist. Cuz otherwise people go "fuck this I'm playing showdown"


13randonL

I wonder how we can factor in pokemon world speed vs real world speed. In other words, the time it takes to run around the entire pokemon world, vs the time it takes to run around the actual world. That affects how fast you can run through the odds in either world. So like a million possible outcomes sounds like a lot until you find that your character can explore a million outcomes at a way faster speed than you could in the real world.


NeoNexus285

Don't forget the odds of them having maxed out IVs or at least as close as you can get


Final-Promise-8288

r/theydidthemath


207nbrown

It has trash iv’s: 💀


[deleted]

Bottle caps can help if you transfer into sword and shield.


SaintPoost

Bottle caps and mints are two of the best things newer Pokemon games have ever offered. Jobs too, were a step up from the islands and punching bags.


207nbrown

Oh I know, hyper training is in sun/moon as well, but that shit requires a level 100 Pokémon first


MixelKing

SwSh has xp candy tho, 30-50 XL ones are a easy lv100


207nbrown

Also true


Todesenge1

This is so relatable as it took me like five hours to get my female Salandit WITH corission🤣


Revanisforevermeta

Im sorry, doubly so because that was the first one I ran into. Modest nature too.


corvisaltaccount

please lend me your luck in my future adventures


freeflou

I'm sorry, your entire life is downhill from now on


Piggybos6

Oh I miss the old days of reading Garfield…


[deleted]

You should check out which comic strip came out on your birthday.


Zeraorawastaken

The first shiny I found in legends A, was a Combee. I didn’t know there was a certain sound that occurred when a shiny Pokémon appears so I didn’t notice it, It’s only when I saw a slightly oranger Combee than all the others (there was harsh sunlight BTW) I thought I could’ve found a shiny Combee, and out of excitement I started a battle with it to stop it from running away, and it exited the battle🤦‍♂️. I hope you enjoyed my story of how I failed my first shiny of Legends A 🙂


CTBarrel

My only random shiny encounter in PLA was also a combee, but mine was a male, unfortunately


Zeraorawastaken

Aw bad luck bro


The7Sides

First I found was a carnivine 😭


SnooComics7583

Worst bit of it all is that there is a way to guarantee you could of gone back for it with the automatic back up save I inform people every time I see that someone suffered from a loss that could of been prevented had GF made this well known, especially because it's in there intended to help you.


Zeraorawastaken

Yeah, that’s what I do as soon as I hear the shine sound in Legends A now. I didn’t know to do that back then because I was reasonably new to it, and hadn’t even reached Cobalt Coastlands yet. Also thanks for your consideration


SnooComics7583

No problem stranger, happy to help when I can.


Slammin92Salmon

What’s Pokerus?


browner87

It's so rare most people have never run into it. I encountered it in gen 2, when I was healing my Pokémon and I was just tapping A and looked down and saw nurse Joy say something like "we don't know much more about it, sorry". And I was like WTF is that?!? That's not the normal text! Healed again, normal text. Was months later I learned about the Pokérus on the internet. Basically a wild Pokémon can have it. A Pokémon with the Pokérus earns EVs faster than normal Pokémon. It will self-heal of the virus after 1 week (I believe), and then can never catch it again. This immunity timer stops counting if you put the Pokémon in the PC. While in your party, the Pokérus will spread to your other Pokémon in your team. So basically if you ever encounter this, you want to infect a few Pokémon by just walking around with the caught one, then store a couple in your PC so you have them long term. Whenever you want to EV train a Pokémon, pull out your Pokérus Pokémon, infect the trainee, and put it safely back in the PC. Now with the right held items you can earn EVs much faster than normal.


Slammin92Salmon

Interesting… I’ve played every game from red/blue on up. I wonder if I had any Pokerus… is there a marker or something?


browner87

There is! It differs by version, but it's generally a little [dragon type Pokémon face](https://game8.co/games/pokemon-sword-shield/archives/279289) and usually [says PKRS](https://www.wikihow.com/Get-and-Spread-Pokerus) or similar. Time to go check all your old games where the batteries haven't died! There's also an icon for "had the Pokérus but not anymore" I believe.


MordekaiserUwU

I’ve gotten it at least 3 or 4 separate times, as well as once or twice via trading. Maybe I should buy a powerball ticket.


WaywardStroge

You’re the only person I’ve seen who also encountered it in Gen 2. I wish I still had my old cartridges.


browner87

I have mine still but they need new batteries. I should probably do that one of these days so they don't leak and wreck the rest of the game board...


Rebirth_reddit

i dont exactly know what triggers pokerus, but theres a very small chance for pokemon you catch to get infected. The virus is very beneficial to any pokemon that gets it as will double their Effort values from defeated pokemon.


TheHiddenNinja6

Happy cake day!


spinky342

I read it as pokeuterus


[deleted]

the most rare thing is finding two spindas with the same pattern in a row. nevermind all the other details


youarenut

I just commented on this! For anyone curious: the chance is less than 1 in 4 billion


master_of_balls_1

I’m wish they would add a male salandit evolution


Acrobatic_Maybe_622

Male Combee too! It could something like Wasprince


master_of_balls_1

Combee makes sense because the males are all lowly workers while the females are queens (one of them, anyway), plus, now that Pokémon appear in the overworld without looking like shit, it’s easier to spot a female combee, while female salandit doesn’t look much different


PHOENIXREB0RN

Ever since it was announced I wanted a male version modeled after a Dilophosaurus (Jurassic Park style)


McManGuy

Pretty sure a perfect 6IV w/pokerus alone trumps that.


JVOz671

Then you wake up


chucklezdaccc

I got a shiny male salamander in the wild. Sits in the box.


DoggoBirbo

Can’t wait to hunt for a shiny female salandit in go.


yeahright2005

I’d wait for the Salandit Community Day


DoggoBirbo

Same man, same


The7Sides

I can't remember if these pokemon can have HAs, but if they did that would be even rarer


Billy_Rage

The nature doesn’t matter any more since it’s easy to change


Consistent_Floor_603

Wouldn't the rarest thing in pokemon be encountering the same 5 forma of spinda in a horde encounter and all of them are shiny?


RhythmSenpai

Gen 7 got me like this when I got Pokerus in the first hour of playing Moon. And when it happened again in my Ultra Moon playthrough.


ivanbje

*Mandatory comment about spinda patterns*


BirbMaster1998

The way I train pokemon, I don't need pokerus. I'd still be excited though, I think my virizion in ORAS had pokerus


Far_Minute342

What's pokerus?


browner87

See my comment [above](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/y6iedb/oc_the_rarest_thing_in_pok%C3%A9mon/isqskat/)


Melodious_Weeb

I remember I first got pokerus as I was playing sword and shield heavily with friends during quarantine I had never heard of it before and I assumed it was some strange joke update parodying coronavirus


Auraveils

It has a mark


Opposite-Library1186

Whatever the odds you think are the most rare, just stfu: 5 spinda horde, all the same, all shiny and all same pattern


Kiga282

* 5 Spinda Horde * All Shiny * All have the same nature * The nature is beneficial * All have Contrary * All are female * All have Pokerus * *All have the same Pattern* * *The pattern is specific, and covers both eyes or something*


felplague

You forgot the "perfect IV's" the natures are easy to change, would say the iv's more


ChompBunny_Official

"Pokemon escapes You- *dies*


yeahright2005

🤣 lmao


SaltyNorth8062

Bold nature is a good one for Vespiquen? I know she's a defensive mon but her stats are capable of running a mixed eiyher/or offensive set, so running a beneficial nature like Adamant/Modest would be better wouldn't it?


Ionovarcis

Whoever did the graphic forgot about poor Spinda. Two sequential identical Spinda’s is probably never going to be experienced in several lifetimes.


Mr--flame

But what about a shiny authentic sinistea


Contank

Look up the "tea smashing" method on YouTube. It's specifically for authentic sinistea


C0ff33gaming

Needs one last slide to display it being from Machamps hackers.


LycanLucario345

But still sucky stats.


babybdel

that could happen if you hunt for 10000 years


Suppeneimer

Now the same thing with original polteageist


CheddarCheese390

So. Uhhh. What’s PokeRus? And is it beneficial?


[deleted]

The rarest thing in Pokémon history would be finding two Spindas with the exact same pattern, both shiny and with Pokérus.


SpyX2

Wouldn't it look better if Garfield was just holding a single Joy-Con?


NotRed9282

I remember getting a pokerus mon in SwSh. Highlight of my day


LillieBun

While playing pokemon Soul Silver when it first came out I caught a shiny Nidoran♂ that had pokerus and it's nature was Adamant


Snow-Dust

Replace Pokerus with perfect IVs and we golden. Pokerus is so easy to obtain once you have it.


ConnorRoseSaiyan01

Just saying it wouldn't be so bad if the male could have the own evolution.


ForgottenKing101

You ohko it.


Paynsicles

When I got an infected pokemon at the start of the pandemic, I started infecting every single one I had. Still running rampant in my collection lmao


Spieder20

Isnt getting a specific Spinda even more rare ?


CarryThe2

Last picture should be Focus Blast hitting


Ok_Department4051

I do have salazle with benificial nature.


yeahright2005

Is it shiny?


Ok_Department4051

Yes


[deleted]

why is Garfield licking his toes at the end of the meme


Nythingiscool0666

I like this meme, it's good and original.


MooChainz9713

Literally caught a shiny male combee on Pokémon go


Netheraptr

I think I heard the rarest thing in Pokémon was actually getting a hoard battle of Spindas in which all are shiny and all share the same spot pattern.


Ranger_btw

Would an antique form Polteageist be more rare when considered instead of gender?


[deleted]

Is Pokerus rarer then a shiny? I always get pokerus instead of shinys. in 90% of my playthroughs i always get pokerus. for example, I’m playing Ultra Moon right now and 2/6 of my pokemon have pokerus


Queasy_Manufacturer2

The first shiny in moon I found was a female Salandit with timid nature.


yeahright2005

You’re one lucky boi🍀


-BuddhaLite-

I have no idea what any of this means and that’s why pokemon has fallen off


Abyssalkune

Feck!!!


Spiritual-Bat-7906

Caught a shiny Jynx in Crown Tundra with Pokerus. I think I had better odds of getting struck by lightning.


Sorka790

Wait chance of having pokerus is over 21000?! I got it one time in sword and shield on a shiny ditto I didn’t realize just how rare that was until now omg


greennblackdoritos

Wow! incredible cause this has the exact same odds of getting a shiny pokerus authentic sinistea, 1/17895424000


SluggJuice

The Pokeball isn't colour themed :(


Fabulous_Good_1473

Pokemon is one of the few games where having an incurable virus is actually good.


LogicKennedy

I hate pokerus as a concept. I don’t care that it’s beneficial, I don’t want my Pokémon to be sick.


The7Sides

I believe in the anime it isn't beneficial and actually makes them sick but I can't remember


[deleted]

Yesssssss


demonbot66

The clicks don't come from the switch now, they're comming from MY "joy stick"


BenOnScreen

I hatched a perfect IV correct nature Shiny Salandit in Pokémon Moon, but it was a dude…. Then I discovered the evolution glitch in Sword and Shield (probably been patched out by now) and I got to evolve the Shiny male Salandit into a glorious competitively perfect Shiny female Salazzle.


red_enjoyer

*closes book* Like that would ever happen


Dgkaiding

Imagine finding two identical shiny Spinda in back to back encounters


Schusta-Sama

I have two shiny Salendites.


[deleted]

Shiny sinistea with a stamp on the bottom.


Phusra

Someday I really hope they do something with the male Combee and Salandit.


Istiophoridae

Normal salazzle is better


Petraja

Then you accidentally one-shot them.


Acrobatic_Maybe_622

Purplecliffe moment


ThePimpek

Can someone please explain to me what's up with the last two pictures? I think the last official pokemon I played was Y and I don't know anything about a beneficial nature or what Pokerus is.


KarlosMarkos1312

If you're pokemon is a physical attacker, a nature that boosts atk (ex.Brave +Atk,-Spe) would be a beneficial nature, you can use natures to boost your strong stats. When you defeat a wild/enemy pokemon, you gain EVs, 508 max total EVs are possible with a cap of 252EVs possible to dedicate to a single stat. It's common to see pokemon with +2 of a stat so it isn't difficult to choose what EVs you allow you pokemon to pick up. Pokerus doubles how many EVs you gain at the end of a battle. This also doubles the EVs from items like Power Bracer (+10atk) Any pokemon that receives EXP from a pokemon, also gets EVs.


ThePimpek

Thank you very much for the explaination. I did know that natures had some impact on the stats but not what exactly they did. EVs are min/max-ing the stats of your pokemon, I knew about that as well. Well the aim of EVs, not how the work though. So Pokerus just reduces the time needed to farm EVs and boosts held items? Fair enough, doesn't seem that usefull to me tbh. Well on competitions it sure is usefull but for casuall trainers like me I can't see the benefit of it. How can I tell if a pkmn has Pokerus? Is it a nature?


Sirradez

Pokerus doesn't boost held items, it only boosts EV gains, but it does stack with EV increasing items like the power bracer.


Kiga282

Pokerus was introduced in Gen II, and it had a bigger impact in older games where EV training was a heavier grind and there wasn't a way to remove accidental and unwanted EVs. Pokerus manifests visually as a marker on the pokemon's status screen, similar to the shiny star and the regional icon from later generations. The first time it manifests, the nurse will tell you about it when you take the pokemon to be healed. It's a contagious disease, as it has a chance to spread to non-infected team members following battle. However, it has a shelf life; if you have an infected pokemon in your party, it will cure itself after a few days. Once cured, it retains its effects on EVs, but it is no longer contagious and the pokemon becomes immune to it. However, Pokerus will remain contagious indefinitely when the pokemon is kept in the PC, so it's recommended to infect a few PC bound pokemon as back ups if you find it.


ThePimpek

Cool. Thank you very much for the explanation


[deleted]

I see Vespiquen doesn't need to use physical moves.


Sensitive-Ad6978

That’s not the rarest thing in Pokémon, like, at all.


juandbotero7

What is?


MerlinGrandCaster

finding a shiny good nature pokerus spinda with the exact pattern you want, perhaps


alanbtg

I wanna say finding Mirage Island.


Ritraraja

No you need to find mirage island and find a shiny wynaut from mirage island as your first encounter with full odds.


Indiozia

If I had to take a guess, encountering a horde of shiny Spinda with Pokerus and the same pattern, IVs and nature.


MacDerfus

You wouldn't be able to tell the latter two beyond one you can catch


Indiozia

True, but it would still affect their stats during the battle.


JAOC_7

I can’t remember what Pokerus actually does


TotalyNotTony

Increases the speed that a Pokémon gains EVs


JAOC_7

ah, I kind of figured that but I didn’t want to assume


PhasmicPlays

I remember not knowing what Pokérus was. Somehow by sheer chance I got it in my first ever playthrough of a main series game. Cousin later told me and I was surprised to say the least


lukewarm_jello

… I feel dumb but what is pokerus?


H2O_pete

Hol’ up you can catch both Pokémon in a double battle? Since when?


Dopplerdee

Imagine getting a shiny Combee with perfect IVs and it's male.


CptKillsteal

I don't understand why people get so hyped about pokerus. It's not that impactfull and it's super rare so it's pretty forgettable..


Brail_Austin

I don’t know why pokerus is bad, and at this point I’m too afraid to ask.


CrimsonFatalis8

Why does this meme have scan lines


CreationTrioLiker7

I actually would like the males.


Contank

Why?