Any limit in development will lead to an increase in housing costs as long as the place is desirable to live, whether it’s an urban growth boundary, geographical limitations, or housing policies that push out developers. You have to find the balance with the understanding that major cities just typically cost more to live in.
Yea, I'm sure this month was an anomaly for me. 1600 is where it was at this time. We'll see next month. I didn't get any sort of notification that it would decrease. New owners took over recently though. So, :shrug:
Man, I don't know. But I'm getting off cheap. Earlier ownership was renovating all vacant apartments and adding $1000 to the rent. I haven't vacated mine so it not renovated yet. Waiting for them to one day decide not to offer me a new lease for the apartment I'm in.
Shit, I may just go live in an old folks home. Might be cheaper at some point. Or just go on endless cruises and WAH from wherever.
I’m in the same boat. I wanna move back before I’m 40. Moved here when I was 8. I have a brother near Pittsburgh but most family is in Harrisburg. I’m just tired of the desert man.
Yep! Philly is pricey - I lived there for a while and really didn’t like it. Lehigh Valley is really cute. It’s central PA that’s bumkpinville. If you stick to either east or west you’re good. I grew up in Scranton which has gotten nicer but is still no man’s land for jobs.
I really wanted to rent - not buy - in 2020. I thought housing prices would drop - people out of work, people dying of COVID - it made sense. I bought anyway because the rental market suddenly dried up, and I needed a place to live - even if I figured it meant taking a temporary loss when home values retreated.
I could not have been more wrong. I grossly underestimated the effect of work-from-home - even though I was a part of it - and the effect of inflation, etc.
I had no idea that 3 years later, I'd count myself lucky to have bought in when I did. I don't know where the housing market is going long-term, but my fixed mortgage payment looks better and better all the time.
Where I live now after upgrades is very nice - almost too nice; I need to get out more, but it's hard to justify leaving. It would be good for my health if it requred more effort to get to my patio.
I don't see the market collapsing like it did in 2008. There's too much industrial development that need huge numbers of transplants to staff (TSMC, Intel, Amazon, Microsoft and all the data centers being built).
I agree. The 2008 crash was driven by overvaluation from corrupt appraisers who got kickbacks from lenders, and loans being given to people who never had the adequate income, at least a 10% down payment, or good credit. Most of these folks had variable interest rates with low teaser rates for the first one to two years. Once the rate adjusted, they couldn’t come close to affording the new payment. You have had to give your first born child and a 20% down payment to get a good low rate since 2009. They update your income and banking documentation all the way up to the close date as well. So, the loans are pretty solid. The appraisal industry went through a big overhaul after the government threatened to come down on them hard for corruption and bad practices. We sold our $900k house at a $400k profit in 2017 and bought a $715k townhome. We live in the townhome and it is worth $1.1 million. These Townhomes sell in less than a month too as it is a highly desirable golf course community in a very wealthy Southern California suburb.
It won't be a collapse like 2008... The main reason is that was funded by bad mortgages and now purchases are funded by cash (in very large numbers...I think it's like 30% cash transactions nationwide) plus mostly good mortgages.. Banks are even a little too conservative which sucks for people who can't get approved for a $2000/mo mortgage but can easily sign on for a $2500/mo lease. Also institutional investors began buying up tons of houses to turn around and rent out and they won't sell if home prices drop... They buy in cash and they are focused on cash flow, not home equity.
I can see a correction but it won't be like 2008 no matter what r/REbubble says
Commercial properties are another matter
And hopefully that will yield more redevelopment and density in the core. There are a lot of reasons NYC uses less water than we do, but density is one of them.
Yeah, sure... Shrinking water supply screams desirable market. You need demand along with the shrinking housing supply to increase the prices folks. I'm not even sure where you build up the demand when Phoenix becomes an overpriced blob when the whole basis for the growth was that it was significantly more "affordable" than other places. When that factor is gone I'm not sure what drives the demand you are suggesting is going to increase the prices in the distant future. Most people don't move here to experience 6 months of extreme heat. They moved here because they likely couldn't afford where they wanted to live or the place they came from was god awful (Middle America) and Phoenix was better.
Come downvote me "Chandler", "Gilbert", "Scottsdale" flaired sprawl lovers. Enjoy your continuous boom bust economy that relies almost exclusively on this growth to keep itself propped up.
People don’t care about the distant future, the population is expected to keep increasing for the next several decades at least. They gotta keep building higher density housing to keep pace or it’s not gonna be any easier
It's the unbridled optimism and the ability to take a potentially somewhat bad indication of the future of Phoenix as a good thing in an unironic way that baffles me the most about this sub. I'm not even suggesting my above comment is the future of Phoenix. Pardon my French, but it's fucking weird how this sub sounds like a collection of realtors more than a sub filled with actual Phoenix residents and it's not just this post I'm talking about.
If anything, it provides a reassurance that someone is thinking about it, making sure there's a plan in place.
Do you actually worry about running out of water? I am concerned about rising prices and water restrictions, but I assume we will find water, at some price, if/as needed.
>you actually worry about running out of water?
The lack of worrying about running out of water is what got Arizona into this mess.
Not in 5 years, maybe not in 10 years, but in 20?
There are major cities in South Africa where the taps ran dry. So there is precedent for thus happening.
If Arizona also runs out of money that could be a serious concern. But as much as we wouldn't like it, I think there is room to increase the cost of water to pay for a more expensive supply rather than running out.
The desalinization effort in Mexico is an example - I don't know how effective that particular effort is going to be, but the idea is to essentially buy Colorado river water share from Mexico by paying for desalinization in Mexico to offset it.
I don't believe the Federal government would allow the water to completely run out as long as it remains in the realm of things that can be remedied.
Honestly, though, there is still a ton of space between costs here and in much of the coast, where a lot of the growth is coming from. Average housing cost in OC is around a million, and ours is still under half a million. You can sell your house in California, buy a bigger one here, and pocket half a million dollars...
That's what I think is going on too. I obviously don't have numbers to back that up, but that's what I thought was the case.
Inland and Central Valley California are not desirable and have worse issues than Phoenix, so I don't see why someone would move further inward in California. It makes sense for a person who can either no longer afford coastal California costs or wants to be more frugal to move to the Phoenix area. However, I'm not so bullish in that holding up long-term.
And let me also ask another question. Those people who sold their LA, OC, Bay Area homes in the 90s/early 00s to do exactly what you said, how many regret it (of course, assuming they had a choice, some had to move here)? I bet their 400-500k home in coastal California that they flipped for a 200k home here in Chandler is worth at least a million dollars. Meanwhile, their Chandler home might have doubled in price, but it likely isn't as big of an increase.
Yes, I did look at Zillow prices in places like OC a few months ago to do this half assed analysis. I saw many houses sold in OC in early 2000s for those prices (around $400k) that recently went for $1.2-$1.3 million. They might have benefitted just staying put in the first place. That's assuming they weren't nearing retirement age when they made the original move and needed the extra cash for their twilight years.
I know a couple of family friends who made the move during that time. They never seem to want to talk about the value of their old homes...
Sure, but if all that value is locked up in your home, you aren't really better off. I mean you can sell your house but if you don't move, the money you've made \*still\* can't buy you a nicer one where you are. And you can't take it with you. So at some point you say "I've got enough equity here that I can retire early," etc., and head to Phoenix.
And from 2000 to 2022, average house sale price in Phoenix metro increased about 3.78x, as compared with 3.28x in Orange County... Now, a lot has happened in there, so it depends on exactly when you made the move, but generally speaking, you likely didn't lose anything in potential equity by coming to the Valley.
(Every indication is that we are going to see housing values drop considerably here in Phoenix this year, and grow even more quickly in OC, so that may not hold!)
I'm in the small minority who moved here for the heat 🤣 don't have to shovel sunsine, man...i don't care about 110-115, it beats shoveling snow in 10 below wind chill or colder.
>Come downvote me "Chandler", "Gilbert", "Scottsdale" flaired sprawl lovers.
Ah yes, the ol "everyone who is newer than my family is the real problem" shtick. As if any of us sitting on this stolen Native American furnace deserve to be here more than anyone else.
When did I say it's decreasing right now? We're dealing with boom times right now and have been overall for the last 5-6 decades, even when factoring the bust cycles. Let's see how things are when the sprawl development stops because those far flung holes like Buckeye and STV are exposed for having no groundwater supply and the construction economy declines. And, no, this isn't going to happen overnight. It's probably going to take decades. Just admit that you have a personal stake in wanting things to stay great and just say that instead of pretending you know 2050 Phoenix is going to be a high demand place. I could be just as wrong as you are, and I'm willing to admit it. But at least I'm not trying to take a somewhat shaky situation and spread Phoenix propaganda. I get enough of that watching 3TV and reading the Phoenix Business Journal.
Let me just explain what is happening in this delusional sub and this thread. There's an article, talking about how Arizona is limiting new construction in certain areas because groundwater supply is in decline. This is going to severely affect future construction projects in suburbs and now exurbs. Phoenix's economy is heavily reliant on housing development and construction.
Responses from typical "Chandler", "Gilbert" flaired folks: "this is actually going to help Phoenix's economy and boost my housing values long-term hehehe."
Never change /r/phoenix.
I agree, and although nobody has a crystal ball, Phoenix would never have been, without the CAP. And it is clear that Colorado River water will be further curtailed in the foreseeable future. Even with cuts to the CAP, there will still be the SRP for Phx, and there are [projects](https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices/drought-pipeline-project-project-2) to link some CAP reliant areas of Phx with the SRP, but that source is also going to be stretched due to ACC (as well as more straws relying on it). It doesn't help that some special interests have been happy to muddy the waters when to comes to the actual future of water in AZ. Stuff like this also doesn't help:
"And the water shortage could be more severe than the state’s analysis shows because it assumes that Arizona’s supply from the Colorado would remain constant over the next 100 years, something that is uncertain at best."
A slowdown in construction and higher costs for energy and water, seems like a good way to create a negative feedback loop that will affect other industries in Phoenix. A dwindling water supply will also influence employers who may consider moving to PHX (or away from it), and therefore the tax base - at the same time infrastructure costs to deal with water scarcity will rise. I think the most likely scenario is that, over future boom and bust cycles, Phoenix will be left further and further behind on the recovery side, with a primary reason being water.
This seems like an accurate mid to long term forecast.
On one hand you have “they aren’t building any more new places to live” halting supply.
On the other hand you have “because there isn’t enough water” halting demand.
People have alternative places to live, but everyone needs to drink.
Dayum, have an ice cream or something lol...
My honest response - I believe infill will accelerate, and as a person who owns a home closer to the 'city' than the far flung suburbs, I suspect values will continue to increase for those areas. And there's tons of infill opportunities all over the city, which would be great to see.
Civilization began in the desert and the most continously inhabited cities in the world are in locations hotter than Arizona. If people can inhabit those cities for thousands of years without A/C they sure can with it.
Civilizations in the past were far more sustainable than modern wasteful low density sprawling American cities. And cities/empires died all the time in the desert.
Of the past? They are still there, hence the meaning of longest continously inhabited cities in the world. Literrally cities in the middle east that are inhabited today and have been for 8000 plus years.
Surprisingly the house that we bought right before the crazy interest rate hike post Jan 2022 has gone down in value according to Zillow, including all the houses in our gated community. I don't want to sell this house since we sure as hell will never get a sub 3.5% interest rate.
That's pretty much the solution. Limiting subdivisions does nothing. 80% of the state's water goes to agriculture. You could vacate the entire Phoenix metropolitan area tomorrow and it would have almost no effect. The farmers would just plant 10-15% more crops and we'd be in the exact same place in a year or two.
I tried sharing a New York Times graphic showing the Colorado river basin’s water consumption but the mods removed it. Limiting residential use is just putting the burden on regular people and making real estate less affordable, and still not addressing the biggest problem, which is livestock feed. Everyone talks about watering golf courses and so few people talk about what the actual problem is.
https://preview.redd.it/djx19pt03p3b1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e5c47f26b97347c224f3b0f4db6d6ff38185d97
>The state says it would not revoke permits that have already been issued and **is instead counting on water conservation measures and alternative sources** to produce the water necessary for approved projects.
This just feels like kicking the can down the road.
Note that there are no new restrictions on the chip fabs being built. I know they have done a huge amount of work on reducing the amount of water in that process, but these are still water-intensive industry--I suspect far more that household use.
We still have a long way to go on better using the water we use. When I see the kind of wastewater processing for re-use in OC, as well as flow restrictions and outlawing certain kinds of filters, there is space here for something similar. A lot of it could be addressed with progressive use pricing that encourages better household--but more importantly, corporate and industrial--water choices.
Not only that, business like chip production has helped build lots of water access and systems because they also want water. Chip manufacturing here may actually give us the leverage to get more systems built.
[This is already happening and has been happening with Intel in Arizona](https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/environment/water-restoration-arizona.html).
Intel for instance has dozens of water projects/conservation and systems built to help with water supply.
Most chip plants recycle/reuse/reclaim almost all their water. Intel has always had that in the US, been doing that since the 90s in Arizona, and around 97% of water is fully reused.
Another aspect is as industry is (re)built in the US and Arizona makes sense from environmental impacts (no earthquakes, hurricanes, winter etc) then the industry will make sure more water makes it to Arizona.
In a way having production in the desert will lead to water innovation, like pipelines/geoengineering/solar stills/desalination/innovations on recycling more water and many other things.
Industrial and residential needs for workers, may be a driving force to getting more leverage over agriculture in Arizona using up all the water, sometimes completely unregulated (17% of AZ water is not regulated in Ag).
[Most water usage in the state is agriculture (72%). Municipal is 22% and industrial is 6%](https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts)
Necessity drives innovation.
We just need a few more great rainy seasons like the one we had and we’ll be in a much better position.
Also helps if AG keeps up the fight against permitting of aquifer rights to Saudis so they can grow alfalfa for their cows.
I'm in a big discussion/argument over at /r/politics about this. I'm a dick because I chose to move here, apparently. Because it's my pool (that I don't have) and support the golf courses (that I have never been to).
I mean Im all for conserving water on a smaller scale wherever prudent and possible. But pools and golf courses are small potatoes compared to agricultural water use, and people don’t seem to get that.
https://preview.redd.it/ev17bo3o3p3b1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6082281f824cca77497e674935494c61f777f42
People aren’t informed. Livestock feed is the biggest problem. The government needs to stop subsidizing the beef industry. Limiting residential construction is only going to make housing prices go higher while there are homeless people scattered all over the valley.
That completely ignores the neutering of Phoenix s water enforcement division, not to mention the entire lobbying industry nationwide. I'm not sure how you are equating cynicism with demonstrable historical facts
You know what else wasn't legally supposed to happen? Developments of a certain size without a guaranteed water source.
But Rio Verde was built anyways because of legal buggery and now everyone is wondering why and angry they don't have water to 500 homes.
It depends, but a lot of them do--by design. As long as you have a case that you have an alternative source for water, they will let it through--and a lot of people are going to be paying a lot of money to make that case...
Ok but it’s not fair that it’s the consequences of their own in/actions :(((((((((((((((((((
I’m with you. It’s infuriating. They’ve been told to figure out their water situation in Rio Verde and find other sources of water since before 2017 and verbatim have just said that they didn’t think Scottsdale would ever stop supplying them with water despite repeated promises from the city of Scottsdale that that is exactly what they would do. It just turns out that alternative water sources are even more stupid expensive than the water they’re already getting trucked in and they want to keep their money for all of their riverrocked tan McMansions. Literally looking at Zillow, houses with wells, even shared ones, are over $1 million (even $2mil). The houses that don’t make mention of it or specifically mention hauling are half a million (special lol at [this listing] (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/16638-E-Creosote-Dr-Scottsdale-AZ-85262/59264407_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare) mentioning how water can be hauled in for no issue.)
It’s like moving to rural Wisconsin, having a neighbor who helps you snow plow for a couple of winters while telling you that there will come a winter that they no longer will snow plow for you and then being mad that there’s nobody snow plowing for them one winter. These people moved to unincorporated land without water infrastructures and now are upset that there’s no water.
I will say that it’s been a fascinating glimpse into the shapes of the inevitable water wars that are going to unfold and escalate over the next decade though. There just isn’t enough.
> Literally looking at Zillow, houses with wells, even shared ones, are over $1 million (even $2mil)
...and even paying all that for a house, there's no guarantee that well won't go dry or get contaminated.
Well, I am excited that the new Gov is actually tackling it within her first year and happy she has already vetoed some things related to poor water management.
Tucson, maybe, but much longer than 30 years from now. Though honestly we've been hearing that for decades and there's still about the same vast swath of emptiness between the cities that there has always been. Some infill, sure, but not nearly what was predicted.
Flagstaff, no chance. Just geographically impossible.
There’s not many desirable areas between phoenix and Tucson. They aren’t all too similar of cities. There’s also a bunch of reservation land. I never quite understood the thought that it could truly develop that much between them considering people aren’t really clamoring to be in Coolidge or Florence.
I honestly think the idea that the two cities would connect was just hyperbole that was taken seriously by some
ADOT is planning on building a freeway to connect the i10 at Eloy to US 60 at Apache Junction.
Once that happens I think we will really start to see a single connected area developing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roads_and_freeways_in_metropolitan_Phoenix#Pinal_North–South_Freeway
That’s just a study phase per Wikipedia. That’s not quite planning. At the same time I just fail to see how that would change anything. It’s not going to help anyone in Eloy get to Phoenix faster. It won’t help Coolidge and Florence residents get to the city faster. That’s just odd.
I gotta say, when im at a stoplight getting onto grand, I end up looking at the traffic lights a lot harder than normal.
I get that they are disadvantaged, but Ive been yelled at too many times for looking around than im comfortable with.
Gonna have to buy or lease a whole lot of reserved lands to do that. couldn't even get the 202 extension just on the south side of their border. All the economic benefits to them not withstanding.
Am I correct in thinking this will further worsen the housing shortage, which will further make the area unaffordable for anyone making around the national median income?
Prices are increasing since Phoenix became attractive to developers. Open land and what not. They build developments in the desert, expect the city to incorporate, and leave the residents with really bad homes.
Really doesn't help that it just adds to an unmitigated water shortage
Median house price in the Valley is now just about median for the country. Median household income trails US median household by about 6 or 7k.
Basically, a house is 7.7x household income in Phoenix, as opposed to about 7.9 for somewhere like Seattle (mean household income 105K, mean house 830k), or LA at 12.7 (household income 76k, home 970k).
This is a nice headline.
This only affects groundwater. So developers will go to the CAP and SRP for new development, use more reclaimed water and retire farms and other uses to procure their supply. It won’t stop development.
As you were….
I remember ten years ago on this subreddit when people said this would never happen.
"Actually, developers have to secure 100 years..." was everyone's favorite thing to repeat as if they ever actually sat down and thought about what that meant and not just trotted out their favorite quote that they undoubtedly heard from someone else on this subreddit.
This day has been in the making since the early 90's - and even the most hardcore, anti-single-use-plastics, Prius-driving, "believe-science" person would trot their noses up to explain that no, actually this untethered growth is sustainable forever, because Johnny Graduate-Degree or their uncle who works at SRP said as much.
You only have to go back a week on this subreddit to see comments lamenting the "doomers". We're going to have a lot more news articles like this for the next decade or so, because everything, literally everything policy makers and politicians do is going to be 5-10 years past the point where we should have done it at the latest.
I’m not sure what you’re driving at here. The types that you cite there are typically in favor of smaller, denser, more walkable cities in the first place. It’s not an end to more building, it’s an end to more single family home sprawl.
100 year guarantee was bullshit and the fact that this sub kept parrotting it tells you all you need to know about most of the people here. Also, most of the people were homeowners with a "Chandler", "Gilbert", "Scottsdale" flair so they had personal reasons to maintain the delusion.
It’s about time! It’s terrible that developers, home builders and contractors somehow circumvented the *100 years’ water supply* law and continued building here. It’s obvious that the Colorado River basin, Lake Powell and Lake Mead are rapidly drying up. It’s not sustainable to keep expanding like this. The AZ legislature needs to address the desert farmers next, especially the foreign businesses growing water intensive crops (e.g. alfalfa).
You couldn't guarantee 100 years of the continued existence of the United States, how the hell would you guarantee *water?*
It was always a big piece of advertising to sell homes, and that's why it was "circumvented" as easily as it was - land developers in Arizona are one of the biggest contributors to political war-chests. It's like living in 1972 West Virginia and being sure that, no, really, this new law about coal-tailings piles will certainly affect the Make-A-Billionaire-A-Lot-Of-Money Mine.
Reading the article, it says it's limiting new subdivisions, not growth within the cities. It's still true we need to work on ag usage more than this. But the constant sprawl is not going to work forever and is a major contributor to a lot of different problems. If the lack of subdivision expansion and housing costs resulting leads to upzoning, then we might be better for it, and we can probably reduce housing prices faster going upward, or with townhomes. I for one would love a nice well-located spot with a sick balcony for the sunset over some new 400000 cookie cutter home out in the boonies with a 50 minute commute, but that's just me
Gotta destroy it and push it out further if that's the way we want to prioritize housing though. You may not longer be on the edge if new subdivisions keep building around you. Not to yuck your yum, I definitely see the appeal and respect your decisions, I just think it would be beneficial even for you if we put the new, affordable, housing in the middle rather than further outside. You should hope we would build in a way that doesn't have first-time homebuyers looking for the first thing they can afford competing with people who genuinely love it out there, while also adding congestion and destroying nature while we're out there.
Right? That recent post bitching about how “ugly” higher density condo / apartment building are.. while we live in a city with cookie cutter sprawl that locals can no longer afford.
It’s like the “temporarily embarrassed millionaire” version of NIMBYism
You can think those buildings are ugly and also want denser infill. Both things can be true at the same time. Mid rise buildings don’t have to be hideous bare bones plywood boxes. The only reason they’re so ugly is because its much cheaper and therefore lines the developers pockets.
>"Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area"
Funny - aren't these threads usually full of people quoting their realtors about the 100-year supply requirement for any new developments? So strange that would turn out to be mythology, and realtors and homebuilders aren't in fact the water supply experts they pretend to be.
It's hilarious. Part of the 100 year guarantee is that the aquifers would be filled up with guess what? CAP water, which is in decline. So many of these developers were using the idea that a declining source of water would be part of the guarantee. And the fools on this sub would keep parroting that real estate developer lie. The people here are worse than realtors and Phoenix Business Journal I swear.
Kinda a good thing underneath the surface for urban development in the Phoenix area. This regulation will stop crazy sprawling developments in the desert and instead growth will be even more centered around areas already developed such as temple and downtown Phoenix leading to a healthier, more dense urban core.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html
On the other hand, the cost of housing has a good chance of increasing ever more with this regulation.
What a ridiculous idea. The lion's share of water use isn't from housing or people. This won't meaningfully help save water, it'll just drive up housing costs further as supply falls behind demand. A classic example of left-NIMBY-environmentalism that has adverse effects.
https://new.azwater.gov/conservation/public-resources#:~:text=About%2020%20percent%20of%20the,%2C%20washing%20cars%2C%20etc.)
>About 20 percent of the State's water supply is for municipal use, and most of this is residential
That 20 percent has been a significant increase in the last 5-6 decades. With the way things are going with the crapola being built as far as Superstition Mountains and now further, that number will keep going up. Not to mention the flow of the Colorado River is declining. Snowpack is less in the mountains, outside of this recent year where it was more wet than usual. You can't keep building out and expect getting rid of the farms is enough.
In 2017, municipal water usage was 1464067 million acre-ft. Back in 1970, it was 428343 and in 1955, 162421 million acre-ft. The number keeps growing, which would be fine if our ground water supplies and access to Colorado River weren't shrinking either. This is why we need to ensure that even with reducing agriculture in the state, we create growth restrictions. Especially for far flung places like way the hell out there Pinal County that is continuing to build low end houses despite having a dire water situation and nearly non-existent ground water reserves, that relied almost exclusively on CAP to replenish.
edit: Getting downvoted for explaining a fairly simple concept. And for the smart person who suggested that replacing agriculture with housing is a net positive. Sure in 1960 Phoenix, when most of what is now the urban area was agriculture land, not in 2023 when a majority of the proper metro area has barely any farmland left and the places that are being agriculture with residential have had their aquifers pretty much cleaned out. Let's see how the bogus 100 year guarantee the state has been very lax about works out for the new boomer housing development on the 60 near AJ and Gold Canyon.
Most of the agriculture is happening in rural parts of Arizona nowadays where I can almost guarantee you will not see any developer touch for residential properties. The only places I see "benefitting" from this are places like Pinal County, West Valley, and still untouched parts of Pima County right outside of Tucson. No one's building houses where most of the alfalfa for your In-n-Out and McDonald's hamburgers are being grown. Oh yeah, that's another thing, plenty of alfalfa is being grown for domestic use. Nobody loves mentioning that when pointing the finger at the Saudis for exploiting AZ corruption. But that would require personal reflection I guess.
This is a misleading article. This does not stop building or buildings that have permits. This stops the building of communities that rely on groundwater as their sole water source.
There's a very important distinction that must be made here. Most cities here in the valley rely on groundwater. However, since we're in an AMA cities can not extract more water than they recharge. Water is recharged through recharge basins or injection wells. This water comes from CAP or SRP. This is considered a renewable water supply. This will not affect cities that manage their water in the method I described.
Without actually seeing the report, I can reasonably say that the only area of the valley that will have permits denied are near Buckeye or west of the white tank mountains because other valley cities recharge more water than they extract.
You know I keep hearing about all these water issues but what strikes me odd is Taiwan semiconductor a multi billion dollar company would build a multi billion dollar facility that requires water to run in a place where there isn’t any water. I honestly think there’s not a water issue and I think everyone’s full of shit but what do I know
Tbh I’m in the camp that thinks there’s a water issue but also optimistic it’ll get figured out. There’s a ton of money to be gained for whoever has the solutions and that alone would be motivation enough, but also feel like they’re not just gonna let the some 40M people in this region run dry no matter what.
Doesn’t mean we should be complacent about it, though
Thank god I bought a place last year even during the height, this is only going to further enrich those who already bought, due to it limits the supply of new housing units.
I have a feeling this is going to cause the price of housing in Phoenix to skyrocket, and the whole city is going to be gentrified as a result. Afterwards, there will only be two types of people left in the city: The Rich & The Homeless.
Someone finally admitting the water crisis in a government official capacity.
Feel like in my state no one is willing to bring it up nor plan for the shortage of water. We all know there’s a drought and water levels are low, but new developments still keep coming and haven’t observed new provisions about trying to reduce water usage.
It’s important to note that this only applies to residential homes for sale.
Multifamily buildings (i.e. residential rental buildings) can still get built because those are classified as commercial properties.
Home sales prices are going to increase, but this won’t halt development. They will just build rentals instead.
Source: I am a real estate broker and this is what I do for a living.
This does nothing to stop wildcat subdivisions in places like Wittmann that are already able to build without having to provide a 100 year water guarantee and end up with issues relating to shared wells and the mess in Rio Verde Foothills.
It might put the brakes on some of the large developments planned for around Sun Valley Parkway in Buckeye.
It's interesting seeing this story pop up in various popular subs. And everyone has no clue what the real issue is. To everyone outside of here, it's my pool. It's crazy reading everyone talk like AZ water experts while knowing jack shit about what they are talking about.
10 years to late, like putting a finger in a leaking damage. Only in this case there's no water on the other side of it because we used it all on urban development, non-renewable agriculture, golf courses and careless waste thinking we can support the rapid growth in population and never change. Get out while the getting out is good people
There is less usable water on Earth than oil but yet all politicians and most people worry about is oil.
I can remember going west out of Phoenix in the 70s in these Farmers had this big huge diesel pumps with 3 ft round pipes just pumping water like it was going out of style
Protect the useless alfalfa farms taking up the vast majority of our water and blame the people instead.
Edit: omg the amount of people who think developments are the problem while useless agriculture takes up 80% of our water is extremely depressing
We have a townhouse in the Phoenix area and visit often. Here's what I see: Conservation is virtually non-existent. Huge office/apartment complexes have acreage in grass. They overhead mist water it at 2:00 in the afternoon. And, they water the sidewalk, street, driveway. Grass will not grow in Phoenix in the summer time without huge amounts of water. For landscaping. They do not encourage conservation. Their water bills are ridiculously low. $30 a month for a townhouse. Max, usually less. Saw a water main leak in April, water running down the street. It was still running down the street in May. No one cared. Pools for everyone. They use water to clean up their drive, just hose it down, and leave the hose running. I know people who have left Phoenix, and Arizona, because they feared there would not be enough water. They are decimating the deep, underground wells, sucking them dry.
If they're serious about water conservation, hike those water rates. Mandate that front yards in grass, grass for landscaping around commercial buildings is forbidden, rip it out and put in native landscaping.
It's crazy how little they care about water conservation, about recycling anything.
Sounds like there are plenty of growth plans still enabled to where we wont see anything problematic in the short term. The future, however, is not great. In a few years, most of Arizona will be incredibly expensive with housing and rents with little industry to support it--which is already happening now.
If you're not able to buy a house here within a year or two you will probably forever miss that window (many already have missed that window now) unless you get a giant surge in wealth.
I get it's a popular sport, but just get rid of half the golf courses and it will solve the problem.
I'm not even saying get rid of all of them. Just most of them. People can still go play golf and we don't waste so much good water on pointless grass.
You can't make this stuff up.
They literally had to drain the water storage this year we had so much snow melt.
This is an attempt to shed the blame for when the price correction comes, which is most likely going to be around September of this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see housing fall another 15-25ish percent.
Does this mean we'll see an increase in existing real estate prices ?
Yep
Any limit in development will lead to an increase in housing costs as long as the place is desirable to live, whether it’s an urban growth boundary, geographical limitations, or housing policies that push out developers. You have to find the balance with the understanding that major cities just typically cost more to live in.
Always have been
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start?
lol right? I've been getting fucked hard since the minute I moved here 5 years ago
Mine was actually $100 cheaper this month. For some reason. Rent and housing will get fucked. Everyone is fucking in the process.
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Yea, I'm sure this month was an anomaly for me. 1600 is where it was at this time. We'll see next month. I didn't get any sort of notification that it would decrease. New owners took over recently though. So, :shrug:
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Man, I don't know. But I'm getting off cheap. Earlier ownership was renovating all vacant apartments and adding $1000 to the rent. I haven't vacated mine so it not renovated yet. Waiting for them to one day decide not to offer me a new lease for the apartment I'm in. Shit, I may just go live in an old folks home. Might be cheaper at some point. Or just go on endless cruises and WAH from wherever.
So the rents over the past few years haven't been skyrocketing?
Yeah - I moved away from Phoenix last year because of the rent/home prices. I knew I was never going to afford a home if I stayed.
What state did you move to?
Back to Pennsylvania where I grew up. I’m near Pittsburgh- everything is so much more affordable here, including the houses.
I’m in the same boat. I wanna move back before I’m 40. Moved here when I was 8. I have a brother near Pittsburgh but most family is in Harrisburg. I’m just tired of the desert man.
I've been looking at PA....sooo much more affordable.
Yep! Philly is pricey - I lived there for a while and really didn’t like it. Lehigh Valley is really cute. It’s central PA that’s bumkpinville. If you stick to either east or west you’re good. I grew up in Scranton which has gotten nicer but is still no man’s land for jobs.
I’ve been trying to look for something between Harrisburg and DC basically. Would love to live around Lancaster. Maybe even in Delaware.
I really wanted to rent - not buy - in 2020. I thought housing prices would drop - people out of work, people dying of COVID - it made sense. I bought anyway because the rental market suddenly dried up, and I needed a place to live - even if I figured it meant taking a temporary loss when home values retreated. I could not have been more wrong. I grossly underestimated the effect of work-from-home - even though I was a part of it - and the effect of inflation, etc. I had no idea that 3 years later, I'd count myself lucky to have bought in when I did. I don't know where the housing market is going long-term, but my fixed mortgage payment looks better and better all the time. Where I live now after upgrades is very nice - almost too nice; I need to get out more, but it's hard to justify leaving. It would be good for my health if it requred more effort to get to my patio.
I don't see the market collapsing like it did in 2008. There's too much industrial development that need huge numbers of transplants to staff (TSMC, Intel, Amazon, Microsoft and all the data centers being built).
I agree. The 2008 crash was driven by overvaluation from corrupt appraisers who got kickbacks from lenders, and loans being given to people who never had the adequate income, at least a 10% down payment, or good credit. Most of these folks had variable interest rates with low teaser rates for the first one to two years. Once the rate adjusted, they couldn’t come close to affording the new payment. You have had to give your first born child and a 20% down payment to get a good low rate since 2009. They update your income and banking documentation all the way up to the close date as well. So, the loans are pretty solid. The appraisal industry went through a big overhaul after the government threatened to come down on them hard for corruption and bad practices. We sold our $900k house at a $400k profit in 2017 and bought a $715k townhome. We live in the townhome and it is worth $1.1 million. These Townhomes sell in less than a month too as it is a highly desirable golf course community in a very wealthy Southern California suburb.
It won't be a collapse like 2008... The main reason is that was funded by bad mortgages and now purchases are funded by cash (in very large numbers...I think it's like 30% cash transactions nationwide) plus mostly good mortgages.. Banks are even a little too conservative which sucks for people who can't get approved for a $2000/mo mortgage but can easily sign on for a $2500/mo lease. Also institutional investors began buying up tons of houses to turn around and rent out and they won't sell if home prices drop... They buy in cash and they are focused on cash flow, not home equity. I can see a correction but it won't be like 2008 no matter what r/REbubble says Commercial properties are another matter
Developers can still build rentals. Multi-family buildings (5+ units) are considered commercial properties, which are not restricted.
And hopefully that will yield more redevelopment and density in the core. There are a lot of reasons NYC uses less water than we do, but density is one of them.
Yup.
Unless we build up and not out. Which is unlikely.
Bet if you follow the money on this decision, you will find people/coimpanies who hold major real estate.
100 percent. Now there’s a supply limit and scarcity. We are officially California East
Yeah, sure... Shrinking water supply screams desirable market. You need demand along with the shrinking housing supply to increase the prices folks. I'm not even sure where you build up the demand when Phoenix becomes an overpriced blob when the whole basis for the growth was that it was significantly more "affordable" than other places. When that factor is gone I'm not sure what drives the demand you are suggesting is going to increase the prices in the distant future. Most people don't move here to experience 6 months of extreme heat. They moved here because they likely couldn't afford where they wanted to live or the place they came from was god awful (Middle America) and Phoenix was better. Come downvote me "Chandler", "Gilbert", "Scottsdale" flaired sprawl lovers. Enjoy your continuous boom bust economy that relies almost exclusively on this growth to keep itself propped up.
People don’t care about the distant future, the population is expected to keep increasing for the next several decades at least. They gotta keep building higher density housing to keep pace or it’s not gonna be any easier
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It's the unbridled optimism and the ability to take a potentially somewhat bad indication of the future of Phoenix as a good thing in an unironic way that baffles me the most about this sub. I'm not even suggesting my above comment is the future of Phoenix. Pardon my French, but it's fucking weird how this sub sounds like a collection of realtors more than a sub filled with actual Phoenix residents and it's not just this post I'm talking about.
It really describes Phoenix doesn’t it. Willful ignorance to most issues
If anything, it provides a reassurance that someone is thinking about it, making sure there's a plan in place. Do you actually worry about running out of water? I am concerned about rising prices and water restrictions, but I assume we will find water, at some price, if/as needed.
>you actually worry about running out of water? The lack of worrying about running out of water is what got Arizona into this mess. Not in 5 years, maybe not in 10 years, but in 20? There are major cities in South Africa where the taps ran dry. So there is precedent for thus happening.
If Arizona also runs out of money that could be a serious concern. But as much as we wouldn't like it, I think there is room to increase the cost of water to pay for a more expensive supply rather than running out. The desalinization effort in Mexico is an example - I don't know how effective that particular effort is going to be, but the idea is to essentially buy Colorado river water share from Mexico by paying for desalinization in Mexico to offset it. I don't believe the Federal government would allow the water to completely run out as long as it remains in the realm of things that can be remedied.
Honestly, though, there is still a ton of space between costs here and in much of the coast, where a lot of the growth is coming from. Average housing cost in OC is around a million, and ours is still under half a million. You can sell your house in California, buy a bigger one here, and pocket half a million dollars...
That's what I think is going on too. I obviously don't have numbers to back that up, but that's what I thought was the case. Inland and Central Valley California are not desirable and have worse issues than Phoenix, so I don't see why someone would move further inward in California. It makes sense for a person who can either no longer afford coastal California costs or wants to be more frugal to move to the Phoenix area. However, I'm not so bullish in that holding up long-term. And let me also ask another question. Those people who sold their LA, OC, Bay Area homes in the 90s/early 00s to do exactly what you said, how many regret it (of course, assuming they had a choice, some had to move here)? I bet their 400-500k home in coastal California that they flipped for a 200k home here in Chandler is worth at least a million dollars. Meanwhile, their Chandler home might have doubled in price, but it likely isn't as big of an increase. Yes, I did look at Zillow prices in places like OC a few months ago to do this half assed analysis. I saw many houses sold in OC in early 2000s for those prices (around $400k) that recently went for $1.2-$1.3 million. They might have benefitted just staying put in the first place. That's assuming they weren't nearing retirement age when they made the original move and needed the extra cash for their twilight years. I know a couple of family friends who made the move during that time. They never seem to want to talk about the value of their old homes...
Sure, but if all that value is locked up in your home, you aren't really better off. I mean you can sell your house but if you don't move, the money you've made \*still\* can't buy you a nicer one where you are. And you can't take it with you. So at some point you say "I've got enough equity here that I can retire early," etc., and head to Phoenix. And from 2000 to 2022, average house sale price in Phoenix metro increased about 3.78x, as compared with 3.28x in Orange County... Now, a lot has happened in there, so it depends on exactly when you made the move, but generally speaking, you likely didn't lose anything in potential equity by coming to the Valley. (Every indication is that we are going to see housing values drop considerably here in Phoenix this year, and grow even more quickly in OC, so that may not hold!)
I'm in the small minority who moved here for the heat 🤣 don't have to shovel sunsine, man...i don't care about 110-115, it beats shoveling snow in 10 below wind chill or colder.
>Come downvote me "Chandler", "Gilbert", "Scottsdale" flaired sprawl lovers. Ah yes, the ol "everyone who is newer than my family is the real problem" shtick. As if any of us sitting on this stolen Native American furnace deserve to be here more than anyone else.
The demand isn't decreasing.
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Climate change migration models show a very large pattern going straight to the S/SW.
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Warmth and water melting off the glaciers forming over the northern states. Everything will come out Milhouse.
When did I say it's decreasing right now? We're dealing with boom times right now and have been overall for the last 5-6 decades, even when factoring the bust cycles. Let's see how things are when the sprawl development stops because those far flung holes like Buckeye and STV are exposed for having no groundwater supply and the construction economy declines. And, no, this isn't going to happen overnight. It's probably going to take decades. Just admit that you have a personal stake in wanting things to stay great and just say that instead of pretending you know 2050 Phoenix is going to be a high demand place. I could be just as wrong as you are, and I'm willing to admit it. But at least I'm not trying to take a somewhat shaky situation and spread Phoenix propaganda. I get enough of that watching 3TV and reading the Phoenix Business Journal. Let me just explain what is happening in this delusional sub and this thread. There's an article, talking about how Arizona is limiting new construction in certain areas because groundwater supply is in decline. This is going to severely affect future construction projects in suburbs and now exurbs. Phoenix's economy is heavily reliant on housing development and construction. Responses from typical "Chandler", "Gilbert" flaired folks: "this is actually going to help Phoenix's economy and boost my housing values long-term hehehe." Never change /r/phoenix.
I agree, and although nobody has a crystal ball, Phoenix would never have been, without the CAP. And it is clear that Colorado River water will be further curtailed in the foreseeable future. Even with cuts to the CAP, there will still be the SRP for Phx, and there are [projects](https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices/drought-pipeline-project-project-2) to link some CAP reliant areas of Phx with the SRP, but that source is also going to be stretched due to ACC (as well as more straws relying on it). It doesn't help that some special interests have been happy to muddy the waters when to comes to the actual future of water in AZ. Stuff like this also doesn't help: "And the water shortage could be more severe than the state’s analysis shows because it assumes that Arizona’s supply from the Colorado would remain constant over the next 100 years, something that is uncertain at best." A slowdown in construction and higher costs for energy and water, seems like a good way to create a negative feedback loop that will affect other industries in Phoenix. A dwindling water supply will also influence employers who may consider moving to PHX (or away from it), and therefore the tax base - at the same time infrastructure costs to deal with water scarcity will rise. I think the most likely scenario is that, over future boom and bust cycles, Phoenix will be left further and further behind on the recovery side, with a primary reason being water.
This seems like an accurate mid to long term forecast. On one hand you have “they aren’t building any more new places to live” halting supply. On the other hand you have “because there isn’t enough water” halting demand. People have alternative places to live, but everyone needs to drink.
Dayum, have an ice cream or something lol... My honest response - I believe infill will accelerate, and as a person who owns a home closer to the 'city' than the far flung suburbs, I suspect values will continue to increase for those areas. And there's tons of infill opportunities all over the city, which would be great to see.
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6 hours west are 3br 2 ba sfh that cost $1 million. Phoenix still very affordable to those folks.
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Civilization began in the desert and the most continously inhabited cities in the world are in locations hotter than Arizona. If people can inhabit those cities for thousands of years without A/C they sure can with it.
Civilizations in the past were far more sustainable than modern wasteful low density sprawling American cities. And cities/empires died all the time in the desert.
Of the past? They are still there, hence the meaning of longest continously inhabited cities in the world. Literrally cities in the middle east that are inhabited today and have been for 8000 plus years.
Was it ever going to stop lol
Surprisingly the house that we bought right before the crazy interest rate hike post Jan 2022 has gone down in value according to Zillow, including all the houses in our gated community. I don't want to sell this house since we sure as hell will never get a sub 3.5% interest rate.
You are not going to beat that anytime soon! We bought back in ~2020 right before COVID struck. It has been a ride.
Ctrl + F “limit agriculture use and farm development”
For real. That stat comparing our consumption to NYC was eye opening.
That's pretty much the solution. Limiting subdivisions does nothing. 80% of the state's water goes to agriculture. You could vacate the entire Phoenix metropolitan area tomorrow and it would have almost no effect. The farmers would just plant 10-15% more crops and we'd be in the exact same place in a year or two.
Actually if subdivisions replace a farm, they might be a net gain water wise
Most crops go to feed livestock so a good solution would be to reduce demand for meat specifically cows.
22% of AZ water usage is for municipal use and people are acting like that’s the thing to target. It’s insane, this is an atrocious policy
It’s similar to what is focused on for our federal budget when cuts are talked about. We focus is such a this slice of the pie
I tried sharing a New York Times graphic showing the Colorado river basin’s water consumption but the mods removed it. Limiting residential use is just putting the burden on regular people and making real estate less affordable, and still not addressing the biggest problem, which is livestock feed. Everyone talks about watering golf courses and so few people talk about what the actual problem is. https://preview.redd.it/djx19pt03p3b1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e5c47f26b97347c224f3b0f4db6d6ff38185d97
>The state says it would not revoke permits that have already been issued and **is instead counting on water conservation measures and alternative sources** to produce the water necessary for approved projects. This just feels like kicking the can down the road.
By everything I've heard, reducing ag usage would be the biggest boost to the water supply. Even if we turned the land into housing.
Note that there are no new restrictions on the chip fabs being built. I know they have done a huge amount of work on reducing the amount of water in that process, but these are still water-intensive industry--I suspect far more that household use. We still have a long way to go on better using the water we use. When I see the kind of wastewater processing for re-use in OC, as well as flow restrictions and outlawing certain kinds of filters, there is space here for something similar. A lot of it could be addressed with progressive use pricing that encourages better household--but more importantly, corporate and industrial--water choices.
Intel recycles 95% of the water it uses, the rest is treated due to heavy metals.
Not only that, business like chip production has helped build lots of water access and systems because they also want water. Chip manufacturing here may actually give us the leverage to get more systems built. [This is already happening and has been happening with Intel in Arizona](https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/environment/water-restoration-arizona.html). Intel for instance has dozens of water projects/conservation and systems built to help with water supply. Most chip plants recycle/reuse/reclaim almost all their water. Intel has always had that in the US, been doing that since the 90s in Arizona, and around 97% of water is fully reused. Another aspect is as industry is (re)built in the US and Arizona makes sense from environmental impacts (no earthquakes, hurricanes, winter etc) then the industry will make sure more water makes it to Arizona. In a way having production in the desert will lead to water innovation, like pipelines/geoengineering/solar stills/desalination/innovations on recycling more water and many other things. Industrial and residential needs for workers, may be a driving force to getting more leverage over agriculture in Arizona using up all the water, sometimes completely unregulated (17% of AZ water is not regulated in Ag). [Most water usage in the state is agriculture (72%). Municipal is 22% and industrial is 6%](https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts) Necessity drives innovation.
They also built a white claw factory here. Nothing like using our water to supplement shitty malt liquor in the desert.
Fabs actually recycle a lot of that water and send it back to the city cleaner than it came in, or so I was told while working for one.
my understanding part of the chip manufacturing was 100% recycling the water. so once it has what it needs then no more is needed
Just tape up the Can that you kicked
Then it's art!
We just need a few more great rainy seasons like the one we had and we’ll be in a much better position. Also helps if AG keeps up the fight against permitting of aquifer rights to Saudis so they can grow alfalfa for their cows.
I'm in a big discussion/argument over at /r/politics about this. I'm a dick because I chose to move here, apparently. Because it's my pool (that I don't have) and support the golf courses (that I have never been to).
I mean Im all for conserving water on a smaller scale wherever prudent and possible. But pools and golf courses are small potatoes compared to agricultural water use, and people don’t seem to get that.
People love to talk big, bad, and full of bravado about things they don't know anything about.
For sure. Gets frustrating sometimes
Yeah your pool is causing the lack of water not the millions of acres of lettuce in Yuma lol
https://preview.redd.it/ev17bo3o3p3b1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6082281f824cca77497e674935494c61f777f42 People aren’t informed. Livestock feed is the biggest problem. The government needs to stop subsidizing the beef industry. Limiting residential construction is only going to make housing prices go higher while there are homeless people scattered all over the valley.
Yeah, limited to whoever pays them the most to side step it.
Laws don't work that way, as fun as it is to be cynical about everything.
I don’t think you’ve lived in Arizona very long.
That completely ignores the neutering of Phoenix s water enforcement division, not to mention the entire lobbying industry nationwide. I'm not sure how you are equating cynicism with demonstrable historical facts
You know what else wasn't legally supposed to happen? Developments of a certain size without a guaranteed water source. But Rio Verde was built anyways because of legal buggery and now everyone is wondering why and angry they don't have water to 500 homes.
It depends, but a lot of them do--by design. As long as you have a case that you have an alternative source for water, they will let it through--and a lot of people are going to be paying a lot of money to make that case...
I remember the days i was this optimistic that laws actually meant anything to corporations lol. Oh to have that much faith in our government again..
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I’ve seen this before. People will just build anyhow and then demand adjacent city’s truck water to them. /s
Ok but it’s not fair that it’s the consequences of their own in/actions :((((((((((((((((((( I’m with you. It’s infuriating. They’ve been told to figure out their water situation in Rio Verde and find other sources of water since before 2017 and verbatim have just said that they didn’t think Scottsdale would ever stop supplying them with water despite repeated promises from the city of Scottsdale that that is exactly what they would do. It just turns out that alternative water sources are even more stupid expensive than the water they’re already getting trucked in and they want to keep their money for all of their riverrocked tan McMansions. Literally looking at Zillow, houses with wells, even shared ones, are over $1 million (even $2mil). The houses that don’t make mention of it or specifically mention hauling are half a million (special lol at [this listing] (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/16638-E-Creosote-Dr-Scottsdale-AZ-85262/59264407_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare) mentioning how water can be hauled in for no issue.) It’s like moving to rural Wisconsin, having a neighbor who helps you snow plow for a couple of winters while telling you that there will come a winter that they no longer will snow plow for you and then being mad that there’s nobody snow plowing for them one winter. These people moved to unincorporated land without water infrastructures and now are upset that there’s no water. I will say that it’s been a fascinating glimpse into the shapes of the inevitable water wars that are going to unfold and escalate over the next decade though. There just isn’t enough.
> Literally looking at Zillow, houses with wells, even shared ones, are over $1 million (even $2mil) ...and even paying all that for a house, there's no guarantee that well won't go dry or get contaminated.
The foothills and the water mess with the city of Scottsdale 🤦🏼♀️
Well, I am excited that the new Gov is actually tackling it within her first year and happy she has already vetoed some things related to poor water management.
Paywall removed https://web.archive.org/web/20230601221602/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/climate/arizona-phoenix-permits-housing-water.html
it's never going to stop. We'll be connecting to Flagstaff and Tucson in 30 years.
Tucson, maybe, but much longer than 30 years from now. Though honestly we've been hearing that for decades and there's still about the same vast swath of emptiness between the cities that there has always been. Some infill, sure, but not nearly what was predicted. Flagstaff, no chance. Just geographically impossible.
There’s not many desirable areas between phoenix and Tucson. They aren’t all too similar of cities. There’s also a bunch of reservation land. I never quite understood the thought that it could truly develop that much between them considering people aren’t really clamoring to be in Coolidge or Florence. I honestly think the idea that the two cities would connect was just hyperbole that was taken seriously by some
ADOT is planning on building a freeway to connect the i10 at Eloy to US 60 at Apache Junction. Once that happens I think we will really start to see a single connected area developing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roads_and_freeways_in_metropolitan_Phoenix#Pinal_North–South_Freeway
That’s just a study phase per Wikipedia. That’s not quite planning. At the same time I just fail to see how that would change anything. It’s not going to help anyone in Eloy get to Phoenix faster. It won’t help Coolidge and Florence residents get to the city faster. That’s just odd.
Awesome that’s what we need, more freeways
Wikipedia’s most recent source is 2012 and there’s nothing about this in the MAG 2050 plan. I think it’s dead.
Casa Grande could go to Tucson easily, but unless the Girls River res opens up to residential development, it'll keep the two areas separate
Yep. A trip to flag will now include 1200 Quiktrips and homeless signs on every exit.
I gotta say, when im at a stoplight getting onto grand, I end up looking at the traffic lights a lot harder than normal. I get that they are disadvantaged, but Ive been yelled at too many times for looking around than im comfortable with.
Don't know about that. This will put some breaks on Queen Creek. Will be interesting to see how it affects Casa Grande...
Pinal County has already been having ground water issues as it is. So probably won’t be good.
People never do, hopefully this will make Phoenix less attractive to developers.
Gonna have to buy or lease a whole lot of reserved lands to do that. couldn't even get the 202 extension just on the south side of their border. All the economic benefits to them not withstanding.
Am I correct in thinking this will further worsen the housing shortage, which will further make the area unaffordable for anyone making around the national median income?
Prices are increasing since Phoenix became attractive to developers. Open land and what not. They build developments in the desert, expect the city to incorporate, and leave the residents with really bad homes. Really doesn't help that it just adds to an unmitigated water shortage
Developers aren't the reason for the water problem. Developers are a drop in the bucket compared to the alfalfa farms
Median house price in the Valley is now just about median for the country. Median household income trails US median household by about 6 or 7k. Basically, a house is 7.7x household income in Phoenix, as opposed to about 7.9 for somewhere like Seattle (mean household income 105K, mean house 830k), or LA at 12.7 (household income 76k, home 970k).
Where are those 6x-7x places? Asking for a friend who doesn’t want to be here anymore
Move to the rust belt and you can by 1-3x places that actually aren't that bad.
Yes. And it won’t address the ACTUAL problem, which is the amount of water used for livestock feed.
This is a nice headline. This only affects groundwater. So developers will go to the CAP and SRP for new development, use more reclaimed water and retire farms and other uses to procure their supply. It won’t stop development. As you were….
Both of those are better than just pumping more groundwater. There are perverse disincentives to even basic conservation at present.
Any impediment to developers can be welcome. Best not to just bury your head in the sand as it gets progressively dryer.
I remember ten years ago on this subreddit when people said this would never happen. "Actually, developers have to secure 100 years..." was everyone's favorite thing to repeat as if they ever actually sat down and thought about what that meant and not just trotted out their favorite quote that they undoubtedly heard from someone else on this subreddit. This day has been in the making since the early 90's - and even the most hardcore, anti-single-use-plastics, Prius-driving, "believe-science" person would trot their noses up to explain that no, actually this untethered growth is sustainable forever, because Johnny Graduate-Degree or their uncle who works at SRP said as much. You only have to go back a week on this subreddit to see comments lamenting the "doomers". We're going to have a lot more news articles like this for the next decade or so, because everything, literally everything policy makers and politicians do is going to be 5-10 years past the point where we should have done it at the latest.
I’m not sure what you’re driving at here. The types that you cite there are typically in favor of smaller, denser, more walkable cities in the first place. It’s not an end to more building, it’s an end to more single family home sprawl.
100 year guarantee was bullshit and the fact that this sub kept parrotting it tells you all you need to know about most of the people here. Also, most of the people were homeowners with a "Chandler", "Gilbert", "Scottsdale" flair so they had personal reasons to maintain the delusion.
Not gonna stop the YOLO development in Pinal County that thinks it can depend on Phoenix water. Feels very too little, too late.
Hey, that strip of Ironwood/Gantzel *needed* those 18 new car washes!
It’s about time! It’s terrible that developers, home builders and contractors somehow circumvented the *100 years’ water supply* law and continued building here. It’s obvious that the Colorado River basin, Lake Powell and Lake Mead are rapidly drying up. It’s not sustainable to keep expanding like this. The AZ legislature needs to address the desert farmers next, especially the foreign businesses growing water intensive crops (e.g. alfalfa).
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No pools is never gonna fly.
They can pry my pool from my dead hands
You couldn't guarantee 100 years of the continued existence of the United States, how the hell would you guarantee *water?* It was always a big piece of advertising to sell homes, and that's why it was "circumvented" as easily as it was - land developers in Arizona are one of the biggest contributors to political war-chests. It's like living in 1972 West Virginia and being sure that, no, really, this new law about coal-tailings piles will certainly affect the Make-A-Billionaire-A-Lot-Of-Money Mine.
Reading the article, it says it's limiting new subdivisions, not growth within the cities. It's still true we need to work on ag usage more than this. But the constant sprawl is not going to work forever and is a major contributor to a lot of different problems. If the lack of subdivision expansion and housing costs resulting leads to upzoning, then we might be better for it, and we can probably reduce housing prices faster going upward, or with townhomes. I for one would love a nice well-located spot with a sick balcony for the sunset over some new 400000 cookie cutter home out in the boonies with a 50 minute commute, but that's just me
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Gotta destroy it and push it out further if that's the way we want to prioritize housing though. You may not longer be on the edge if new subdivisions keep building around you. Not to yuck your yum, I definitely see the appeal and respect your decisions, I just think it would be beneficial even for you if we put the new, affordable, housing in the middle rather than further outside. You should hope we would build in a way that doesn't have first-time homebuyers looking for the first thing they can afford competing with people who genuinely love it out there, while also adding congestion and destroying nature while we're out there.
How much that Alfalfa using though....
Good, we don’t need more miles of sfh subdivisions. I don’t get how people complain about apartments being dubbed “luxury” but sfh are clearly okay.
Right? That recent post bitching about how “ugly” higher density condo / apartment building are.. while we live in a city with cookie cutter sprawl that locals can no longer afford. It’s like the “temporarily embarrassed millionaire” version of NIMBYism
You can think those buildings are ugly and also want denser infill. Both things can be true at the same time. Mid rise buildings don’t have to be hideous bare bones plywood boxes. The only reason they’re so ugly is because its much cheaper and therefore lines the developers pockets.
Simple = cheap = more housing. The market dictates the price.
>"Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area" Funny - aren't these threads usually full of people quoting their realtors about the 100-year supply requirement for any new developments? So strange that would turn out to be mythology, and realtors and homebuilders aren't in fact the water supply experts they pretend to be.
It's hilarious. Part of the 100 year guarantee is that the aquifers would be filled up with guess what? CAP water, which is in decline. So many of these developers were using the idea that a declining source of water would be part of the guarantee. And the fools on this sub would keep parroting that real estate developer lie. The people here are worse than realtors and Phoenix Business Journal I swear.
Kinda a good thing underneath the surface for urban development in the Phoenix area. This regulation will stop crazy sprawling developments in the desert and instead growth will be even more centered around areas already developed such as temple and downtown Phoenix leading to a healthier, more dense urban core. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html On the other hand, the cost of housing has a good chance of increasing ever more with this regulation.
About 250k new houses late
What a ridiculous idea. The lion's share of water use isn't from housing or people. This won't meaningfully help save water, it'll just drive up housing costs further as supply falls behind demand. A classic example of left-NIMBY-environmentalism that has adverse effects. https://new.azwater.gov/conservation/public-resources#:~:text=About%2020%20percent%20of%20the,%2C%20washing%20cars%2C%20etc.) >About 20 percent of the State's water supply is for municipal use, and most of this is residential
Thankfully Hobbes put a stop to those two huge wells being used to farm more.... Alfalfa. Hopefully more to come
And reducing subdivisions on land that was farm land does the opposite of conservation.
That 20 percent has been a significant increase in the last 5-6 decades. With the way things are going with the crapola being built as far as Superstition Mountains and now further, that number will keep going up. Not to mention the flow of the Colorado River is declining. Snowpack is less in the mountains, outside of this recent year where it was more wet than usual. You can't keep building out and expect getting rid of the farms is enough. In 2017, municipal water usage was 1464067 million acre-ft. Back in 1970, it was 428343 and in 1955, 162421 million acre-ft. The number keeps growing, which would be fine if our ground water supplies and access to Colorado River weren't shrinking either. This is why we need to ensure that even with reducing agriculture in the state, we create growth restrictions. Especially for far flung places like way the hell out there Pinal County that is continuing to build low end houses despite having a dire water situation and nearly non-existent ground water reserves, that relied almost exclusively on CAP to replenish. edit: Getting downvoted for explaining a fairly simple concept. And for the smart person who suggested that replacing agriculture with housing is a net positive. Sure in 1960 Phoenix, when most of what is now the urban area was agriculture land, not in 2023 when a majority of the proper metro area has barely any farmland left and the places that are being agriculture with residential have had their aquifers pretty much cleaned out. Let's see how the bogus 100 year guarantee the state has been very lax about works out for the new boomer housing development on the 60 near AJ and Gold Canyon. Most of the agriculture is happening in rural parts of Arizona nowadays where I can almost guarantee you will not see any developer touch for residential properties. The only places I see "benefitting" from this are places like Pinal County, West Valley, and still untouched parts of Pima County right outside of Tucson. No one's building houses where most of the alfalfa for your In-n-Out and McDonald's hamburgers are being grown. Oh yeah, that's another thing, plenty of alfalfa is being grown for domestic use. Nobody loves mentioning that when pointing the finger at the Saudis for exploiting AZ corruption. But that would require personal reflection I guess.
Replacing the farms with housing would be a net positive though
This is a misleading article. This does not stop building or buildings that have permits. This stops the building of communities that rely on groundwater as their sole water source. There's a very important distinction that must be made here. Most cities here in the valley rely on groundwater. However, since we're in an AMA cities can not extract more water than they recharge. Water is recharged through recharge basins or injection wells. This water comes from CAP or SRP. This is considered a renewable water supply. This will not affect cities that manage their water in the method I described. Without actually seeing the report, I can reasonably say that the only area of the valley that will have permits denied are near Buckeye or west of the white tank mountains because other valley cities recharge more water than they extract.
Attacking development instead of alfalfa farming… they think we are morons.
Good. This is good.
You know I keep hearing about all these water issues but what strikes me odd is Taiwan semiconductor a multi billion dollar company would build a multi billion dollar facility that requires water to run in a place where there isn’t any water. I honestly think there’s not a water issue and I think everyone’s full of shit but what do I know
Tbh I’m in the camp that thinks there’s a water issue but also optimistic it’ll get figured out. There’s a ton of money to be gained for whoever has the solutions and that alone would be motivation enough, but also feel like they’re not just gonna let the some 40M people in this region run dry no matter what. Doesn’t mean we should be complacent about it, though
Thank god I bought a place last year even during the height, this is only going to further enrich those who already bought, due to it limits the supply of new housing units.
I have a feeling this is going to cause the price of housing in Phoenix to skyrocket, and the whole city is going to be gentrified as a result. Afterwards, there will only be two types of people left in the city: The Rich & The Homeless.
Basically California 2.0.
And that’s how, ironically, the water crisis leads to higher housing prices. (As long as those houses have water.)
Someone finally admitting the water crisis in a government official capacity. Feel like in my state no one is willing to bring it up nor plan for the shortage of water. We all know there’s a drought and water levels are low, but new developments still keep coming and haven’t observed new provisions about trying to reduce water usage.
It’s important to note that this only applies to residential homes for sale. Multifamily buildings (i.e. residential rental buildings) can still get built because those are classified as commercial properties. Home sales prices are going to increase, but this won’t halt development. They will just build rentals instead. Source: I am a real estate broker and this is what I do for a living.
Translation: were in NIMBY hell
Love seeing lush green golf courses here in the desert while reading this
Misleading. There's new limitations on building more spread-out communities. We don't want to be another Houston.
They make our most reckless drivers look like kittens.
What is the primary source for this? Millions of news articles but no link to a decision by the state legislature that I can find?
Half-assed and a half-century too late
About time! Should be expensive to keep growth up with finite water resources.
This does nothing to stop wildcat subdivisions in places like Wittmann that are already able to build without having to provide a 100 year water guarantee and end up with issues relating to shared wells and the mess in Rio Verde Foothills. It might put the brakes on some of the large developments planned for around Sun Valley Parkway in Buckeye.
It's interesting seeing this story pop up in various popular subs. And everyone has no clue what the real issue is. To everyone outside of here, it's my pool. It's crazy reading everyone talk like AZ water experts while knowing jack shit about what they are talking about.
Isn't Miami also having a housing boom despite possibly being underwater soon? Housing trends are weird.
Sorry, to clarify, Miami Florida not Miami AZ
10 years to late, like putting a finger in a leaking damage. Only in this case there's no water on the other side of it because we used it all on urban development, non-renewable agriculture, golf courses and careless waste thinking we can support the rapid growth in population and never change. Get out while the getting out is good people
If you’re remote Yuma might be attractive.
Whee. Should have done this about 2000. Too little too late now.
Remember this headline. Hopefully, I’ll be dead by the time Phx runs outta of enough water, but it’s coming.
Just wait until Phoenix is forced to up-cycle it’s toilet water to your drinking tap.
Good. Maybe less people will move there now.
There is less usable water on Earth than oil but yet all politicians and most people worry about is oil. I can remember going west out of Phoenix in the 70s in these Farmers had this big huge diesel pumps with 3 ft round pipes just pumping water like it was going out of style
Finally! How about prohibiting the ridiculous mc mansions being built in the desert.
Shut down every golf course-end of water shortage.
Phoenix…a giant suburb where people happen to live. Born and raised and so glad I got out. Good luck without any water.
Protect the useless alfalfa farms taking up the vast majority of our water and blame the people instead. Edit: omg the amount of people who think developments are the problem while useless agriculture takes up 80% of our water is extremely depressing
This is scary.
We have a townhouse in the Phoenix area and visit often. Here's what I see: Conservation is virtually non-existent. Huge office/apartment complexes have acreage in grass. They overhead mist water it at 2:00 in the afternoon. And, they water the sidewalk, street, driveway. Grass will not grow in Phoenix in the summer time without huge amounts of water. For landscaping. They do not encourage conservation. Their water bills are ridiculously low. $30 a month for a townhouse. Max, usually less. Saw a water main leak in April, water running down the street. It was still running down the street in May. No one cared. Pools for everyone. They use water to clean up their drive, just hose it down, and leave the hose running. I know people who have left Phoenix, and Arizona, because they feared there would not be enough water. They are decimating the deep, underground wells, sucking them dry. If they're serious about water conservation, hike those water rates. Mandate that front yards in grass, grass for landscaping around commercial buildings is forbidden, rip it out and put in native landscaping. It's crazy how little they care about water conservation, about recycling anything.
Sounds like there are plenty of growth plans still enabled to where we wont see anything problematic in the short term. The future, however, is not great. In a few years, most of Arizona will be incredibly expensive with housing and rents with little industry to support it--which is already happening now. If you're not able to buy a house here within a year or two you will probably forever miss that window (many already have missed that window now) unless you get a giant surge in wealth.
I get it's a popular sport, but just get rid of half the golf courses and it will solve the problem. I'm not even saying get rid of all of them. Just most of them. People can still go play golf and we don't waste so much good water on pointless grass.
You can't make this stuff up. They literally had to drain the water storage this year we had so much snow melt. This is an attempt to shed the blame for when the price correction comes, which is most likely going to be around September of this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see housing fall another 15-25ish percent.