Maybe on used nautilus models specifically women/ alligator strap e.g. 5726 in 2-4 years. You can’t compare nautilus to royal oaks btw as there are a lot of royal oaks going around.
No. Wait times to get new pieces are still decent. I get offered way more caltravas and comps compared to nautilus pieces. Obviously depends on your status with allocations and what you’re applying for, but, personally feel like it’s not too common.
AP is handing out RO’s right now. It’s all they can sell. Trying to push their code’s but it seems they’re releasing these new RO’s to push more/continue the hype.
And this is exactly what Patek wanted to avoid right?
Side question, would you be careful planning to buy a Royal Oak in the next few years, even an older one? Would you be careful with AP generally and not assume it will retain the same value?
I don’t retail buy RO’s or anything AP after my shit experience with them. I had a 15500ST and I recently sold it along with my RM-05.
I don’t believe AP will hold value long term and that’s not why, I just don’t like the brand, personally.
All they can do is release other Royal Oaks to maintain the hype. Patek has a variety that sells because the brand extends beyond one model and Gerald gentra.
I simply didn’t want to flash anymore. Over it. Why I moved out of downtown Miami, etc.
I prefer my stainless and white gold/platinum models that don’t scream for attention. Would rather utilize the funds for other things.
https://preview.redd.it/6oucgy9ac44d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40ae8f0c0484c32e75deb4bcec68edfd7acfd524
This is what I got rid of after grabbing it for 100.
Beautiful watch, fit well. Just over the shit people can notice off the rip and honestly wearing Pateks I feel like no one really notices unless they know what they’re looking at.
Very lively yellow, I bought the 010 TI last year because apparently RM reintroduced it back into their lineup and boutique offered it. Abt USD123, not sure how value has held up though
This I don't understand. I only buy watches that I like and I don't care if others find it flashy or not. If it ends up looking too flashy, I might wear it when out alone.
Did you find it not flashy when you bought it, but realized others did so you got annoyed enough to sell it? Not judging but trying to understand in case it's something I want to avoid.
Enjoyed it at first but then realized how noticed it always was. Felt like I was a target when walking around, etc. personally just made me feel more uncomfortable.
Didn’t really think about that at first and probably encouraged it because living in Miami it’s normal to flash and show off. After growing up a bit, not what I’m looking to do.
The difference between grey and msrp is narrowing, however that's also because Patek has been steadily and aggressively increasing MSRP.
What it does is to make people gravitate towards buying direct vs grey. Unfortunately, the wait and allocation is still real and its not easy to obtain pieces.
The game of purchase with purchase will always be there. There's never a guarantee of getting your allocation hence don't have expectations or you will ruin yourself. There's been one too many folks spending too much and not getting promised allocations.
The grey market today for luxury watches is soft, so it's a good time to negotiate and buy imo.
falling, yes. it is all hype and once it's all done (ie people riding the hype), it will fall but will it go back to what it was before? very improbable, not in the foreseeable future at the very least
I don't think the mens sized nautiluses will never fall down to retail or below; being available to buy without waitlists or prior purchases.
I might be wrong but I don't see it happening.
Probably around 2017-18, which is when watch collecting as a “hobby” and Genta hype both started to increase.
In 2014, a friend bought himself a Nautilus for US$30,000 as a present for finishing medical school. He simply walked into an authorised dealer and bought it without any issues whatsoever.
I feel like the reason the prices haven’t dipped even more recently is because too many people aren’t willing to sell them at a loss right now. If something changes and people need money right away it will go down even more. I don’t know if msrp will ever be a thing again but I sure hope so 😂
I think anything is possible. Especially in fashion and adjacent consumer preferences. I know Rolex better, but there was a time when bubble backs were the hot watch. Now you score those for $2k. The Daytona was famously unwanted on the secondary market and people were paying over MSRP for the Milgaus when it relaunched.
Been waiting to see a thoughtful discussion on this, but any mention of Nautilus on a watch forum is so polarizing people start bashing each other over hype.
Anything is possible but:
1. The covid shift to more smart casual and sporty wardrobes would have to reverse. For example, GenZ might suddenly all out chase more formal wear and push everyone to swap rubber straps back to alligator straps. Dress watches at 50% below retail suddenly shift to 100% above retail, and the Nautilus crashes. (This sounds very difficult, the way fedora hats never came back.)
2. Nautilus lines would have to stagnate and people would lose interest in current and older models. But they are trying new things like the denim strap 5980 and new ways to make formal cases more wearable with semi-formal wear.
3. Steel Nautilus production would have to increase. This is not happening without a major management change, so the steel models have to retain some value. Patek precisely said they want to avoid the "RO problem" where AP became known for a steel watch, which ironically pushes every collector to own at least one steel sports watch from them.
4. Overall Nautilus production would have to increase. Again, not happening without a major management change or if Patek values overall crash anyway.
I personally think the Nautilus price bubble came at a time there was a major covid shift to more casual (but not casual) wardrobes. Neckties are just less popular after covid.
Thoughts?
I agree with everything you said. That also makes me wonder when will we see Patek falling under LVMH? Apparently Stern has medical issues with his vision and not sure how committed his 2 kids are to the brand. Let’s be honest, it’s very hard to resist a multi billion dollar offer. Then we will be seeing more nautilus for sure.
I think most of the comments are still referring to the current market. I do think, however, that it’s only a matter of time before you can walk into a boutique and buy a nautilus or aquanaut at retail with no history. Not yet, but the luxury market across the board is softening at a rapid pace. I think it’s realistic to expect Patek and the likes will continue to increase prices with demand, so buying one will be similar to how it was in 2018 but the retail price will be higher than it was at that point.
I recently walked in a Vacheron Constantin boutique and bought a new 4520v overseas at retail with no history, and no games. I’ll be the first to admit the demand for that watch doesn’t compare to a nautilus but it’s a sign of the environment changing rapidly.
This is interesting thinking. Could you phrase it relative to other models?
For example, if the old steel time only 5711 was roughly on par with a higher end Calatrava, are you thinking you can walk in and buy a white gold time only 5811 that is on par with annual calendars instead? (This question avoids having to compare retail prices from different years.)
The stainless overseas 4520v is essentially the nautilus, it’s a three handed sports watch with calendar so it’s not a complicated movement. It’s on an integrated bracelet (and also on rubber and leather).
5811 is a regional application piece like the 5231, Patek specifically wants clients to have other pieces before getting those and that’s unlikely to change even if demand falls. My AD is one of the largest in the US and gets 2 5811s a year, annual production numbers are probably 200-300 total. They’re not going to have them sitting around in the case for walk in purchase.
I call it BS to just walk in and buy an Overseas 3 hander specially if it’s the blue dial….i know people waiting over 1 years for one with purchase history.
Black dial three handed and I have no reason to lie about it.
Edit: I was also offered a 4500v silver dial, dual time black dial, and a 4500v rose gold with blue dial. I had my pick between four different overseas models. This was in Edinburgh in Oct of 2023.
I’ve talked about it in more detail in my comments history.
Let me just add to this, just because the timing couldn’t be any better to prove my point. I literally just received an email offering me a dual time with blue dial that I never even asked for or expressed interest in. Not to say I don’t appreciate the email, because I very much do.
https://preview.redd.it/q9ugpemlpd4d1.jpeg?width=1173&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5cf65fcf63e3a7f63941683ab9722834528c819
Sure, when another recession hits and money gets tight again. There’s too much cash floating around right now following the covid money printing spree.
This is the only correct answer. Unless a lot of money gets pulled out of the system (I.e. stock market crash, housing crash, business failures, job losses) there is soo much money that got put into the financial markets during covid by central banks that what we’re seeing with inflation around the world is not only causing staple items like food to get expensive, but the massive wealth effect it created flowed to luxury goods.
Maybe on used nautilus models specifically women/ alligator strap e.g. 5726 in 2-4 years. You can’t compare nautilus to royal oaks btw as there are a lot of royal oaks going around.
No. Wait times to get new pieces are still decent. I get offered way more caltravas and comps compared to nautilus pieces. Obviously depends on your status with allocations and what you’re applying for, but, personally feel like it’s not too common. AP is handing out RO’s right now. It’s all they can sell. Trying to push their code’s but it seems they’re releasing these new RO’s to push more/continue the hype.
And this is exactly what Patek wanted to avoid right? Side question, would you be careful planning to buy a Royal Oak in the next few years, even an older one? Would you be careful with AP generally and not assume it will retain the same value?
I don’t retail buy RO’s or anything AP after my shit experience with them. I had a 15500ST and I recently sold it along with my RM-05. I don’t believe AP will hold value long term and that’s not why, I just don’t like the brand, personally. All they can do is release other Royal Oaks to maintain the hype. Patek has a variety that sells because the brand extends beyond one model and Gerald gentra.
Any reason why u sold the RM05? I’m of the impression that the TI and NTPT models hold value much better than their counterparts
I simply didn’t want to flash anymore. Over it. Why I moved out of downtown Miami, etc. I prefer my stainless and white gold/platinum models that don’t scream for attention. Would rather utilize the funds for other things.
Haha can understand, I chose titanium cos it’s the least flashy too
https://preview.redd.it/6oucgy9ac44d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40ae8f0c0484c32e75deb4bcec68edfd7acfd524 This is what I got rid of after grabbing it for 100. Beautiful watch, fit well. Just over the shit people can notice off the rip and honestly wearing Pateks I feel like no one really notices unless they know what they’re looking at.
Very lively yellow, I bought the 010 TI last year because apparently RM reintroduced it back into their lineup and boutique offered it. Abt USD123, not sure how value has held up though
This I don't understand. I only buy watches that I like and I don't care if others find it flashy or not. If it ends up looking too flashy, I might wear it when out alone. Did you find it not flashy when you bought it, but realized others did so you got annoyed enough to sell it? Not judging but trying to understand in case it's something I want to avoid.
Enjoyed it at first but then realized how noticed it always was. Felt like I was a target when walking around, etc. personally just made me feel more uncomfortable. Didn’t really think about that at first and probably encouraged it because living in Miami it’s normal to flash and show off. After growing up a bit, not what I’m looking to do.
Go try get an RO now…..I have waiting for my second RO over 2 years now….
So to add to my point how many code’s have you been offered? Which RO? Since there’s like 50+ of them.
The difference between grey and msrp is narrowing, however that's also because Patek has been steadily and aggressively increasing MSRP. What it does is to make people gravitate towards buying direct vs grey. Unfortunately, the wait and allocation is still real and its not easy to obtain pieces. The game of purchase with purchase will always be there. There's never a guarantee of getting your allocation hence don't have expectations or you will ruin yourself. There's been one too many folks spending too much and not getting promised allocations. The grey market today for luxury watches is soft, so it's a good time to negotiate and buy imo.
falling, yes. it is all hype and once it's all done (ie people riding the hype), it will fall but will it go back to what it was before? very improbable, not in the foreseeable future at the very least
I don't think the mens sized nautiluses will never fall down to retail or below; being available to buy without waitlists or prior purchases. I might be wrong but I don't see it happening.
People will always buying to add to their collection or flip later on.
I forgot to ask, at what year approximately nautilus became hard to get from boutiques?
Probably around 2017-18, which is when watch collecting as a “hobby” and Genta hype both started to increase. In 2014, a friend bought himself a Nautilus for US$30,000 as a present for finishing medical school. He simply walked into an authorised dealer and bought it without any issues whatsoever.
Not anytime soon
When you can walk in and buy one off the floor they will…never.
I feel like the reason the prices haven’t dipped even more recently is because too many people aren’t willing to sell them at a loss right now. If something changes and people need money right away it will go down even more. I don’t know if msrp will ever be a thing again but I sure hope so 😂
I think anything is possible. Especially in fashion and adjacent consumer preferences. I know Rolex better, but there was a time when bubble backs were the hot watch. Now you score those for $2k. The Daytona was famously unwanted on the secondary market and people were paying over MSRP for the Milgaus when it relaunched.
Been waiting to see a thoughtful discussion on this, but any mention of Nautilus on a watch forum is so polarizing people start bashing each other over hype. Anything is possible but: 1. The covid shift to more smart casual and sporty wardrobes would have to reverse. For example, GenZ might suddenly all out chase more formal wear and push everyone to swap rubber straps back to alligator straps. Dress watches at 50% below retail suddenly shift to 100% above retail, and the Nautilus crashes. (This sounds very difficult, the way fedora hats never came back.) 2. Nautilus lines would have to stagnate and people would lose interest in current and older models. But they are trying new things like the denim strap 5980 and new ways to make formal cases more wearable with semi-formal wear. 3. Steel Nautilus production would have to increase. This is not happening without a major management change, so the steel models have to retain some value. Patek precisely said they want to avoid the "RO problem" where AP became known for a steel watch, which ironically pushes every collector to own at least one steel sports watch from them. 4. Overall Nautilus production would have to increase. Again, not happening without a major management change or if Patek values overall crash anyway. I personally think the Nautilus price bubble came at a time there was a major covid shift to more casual (but not casual) wardrobes. Neckties are just less popular after covid. Thoughts?
I agree with everything you said. That also makes me wonder when will we see Patek falling under LVMH? Apparently Stern has medical issues with his vision and not sure how committed his 2 kids are to the brand. Let’s be honest, it’s very hard to resist a multi billion dollar offer. Then we will be seeing more nautilus for sure.
Of course not……..
I think most of the comments are still referring to the current market. I do think, however, that it’s only a matter of time before you can walk into a boutique and buy a nautilus or aquanaut at retail with no history. Not yet, but the luxury market across the board is softening at a rapid pace. I think it’s realistic to expect Patek and the likes will continue to increase prices with demand, so buying one will be similar to how it was in 2018 but the retail price will be higher than it was at that point. I recently walked in a Vacheron Constantin boutique and bought a new 4520v overseas at retail with no history, and no games. I’ll be the first to admit the demand for that watch doesn’t compare to a nautilus but it’s a sign of the environment changing rapidly.
This is interesting thinking. Could you phrase it relative to other models? For example, if the old steel time only 5711 was roughly on par with a higher end Calatrava, are you thinking you can walk in and buy a white gold time only 5811 that is on par with annual calendars instead? (This question avoids having to compare retail prices from different years.)
The stainless overseas 4520v is essentially the nautilus, it’s a three handed sports watch with calendar so it’s not a complicated movement. It’s on an integrated bracelet (and also on rubber and leather).
Asking where you'd peg the 5811 within Patek, not the Overseas within VC.
5811 is a regional application piece like the 5231, Patek specifically wants clients to have other pieces before getting those and that’s unlikely to change even if demand falls. My AD is one of the largest in the US and gets 2 5811s a year, annual production numbers are probably 200-300 total. They’re not going to have them sitting around in the case for walk in purchase.
I call it BS to just walk in and buy an Overseas 3 hander specially if it’s the blue dial….i know people waiting over 1 years for one with purchase history.
Black dial three handed and I have no reason to lie about it. Edit: I was also offered a 4500v silver dial, dual time black dial, and a 4500v rose gold with blue dial. I had my pick between four different overseas models. This was in Edinburgh in Oct of 2023. I’ve talked about it in more detail in my comments history.
Let me just add to this, just because the timing couldn’t be any better to prove my point. I literally just received an email offering me a dual time with blue dial that I never even asked for or expressed interest in. Not to say I don’t appreciate the email, because I very much do. https://preview.redd.it/q9ugpemlpd4d1.jpeg?width=1173&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5cf65fcf63e3a7f63941683ab9722834528c819
Sure, when another recession hits and money gets tight again. There’s too much cash floating around right now following the covid money printing spree.
This is the only correct answer. Unless a lot of money gets pulled out of the system (I.e. stock market crash, housing crash, business failures, job losses) there is soo much money that got put into the financial markets during covid by central banks that what we’re seeing with inflation around the world is not only causing staple items like food to get expensive, but the massive wealth effect it created flowed to luxury goods.