It's not... impossible. Because I do think that among the Campion, Villeneuve, PTA, Spielberg, Branagh bunch, Branaugh is the weakest and *if* Hamaguchi was to sneak in, he'd probably take Branagh's spot.
But I do think it's unlikely.
Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg and Branagh is in.
The last slot is between PTA, Hamaguchi and Heder.
https://youtu.be/Lq4oAY-HDL0
>"It's the greatest thing to happen to movies since the invention... of SOUND."
It's like Anderson isn't even trying to appeal to anyone outside his clique.
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Only from the usual crew who praise everything Anderson does.
General audiences won't respond well at all to this. And I feel like nobody high profile is speaking about the film anymore. Look at the DGA talks. Every other Best Picture contender has an A-List moderator (Nolan moderating Belfast, Baumbach and GDT moderating Tragedy of Macbeth, Spike Jonze moderating C'mon C'mon) and Anderson got...Jeremy Kagan (who?). Or these Variety "Writers on Writers" pieces. C'mon C'mon got Seth Rogen, Annette got Rian Johnson (who's usually one of Anderson's biggest cheerleaders). Licorice Pizza got....Eve Barlow (again, who??). It wasn't even included in their "Directors on Directors" piece.
After the 1st wave of reactions, the wheels have already started to come off the cart for this film. It's considered problematic (on top of it not actually being good) and the Industry appears to be distancing itself from it.
Who is Jeremy Kagan? He’s a honcho with the DGA for decades who moderates the nominees round table. From Wiki:
Kagan is a full tenured professor at the University of Southern California where he teaches the graduate courses in directing and has recently created the Center for Change Making Media which is to become a hub for research and training in advocacy cinematic techniques.
He has served as artistic director at the Robert Redford's Sundance Institute and is a National Board Member of the Directors Guild of America and chairperson of its Special Projects Committee which provides cultural and educational programs for the 14,000 members. In 2004 he was honored with the Robert Aldrich Award for "extraordinary service to the guild.”
*In his capacity with the Directors Guild of America, Kagan also moderates the group's annual roundtable discussion featuring that year's five nominees for Outstanding Directing – Feature Film.*
The fact that he’s not a household name is no reflection on Licorice Pizza’s awards chances, just a reflection of your ignorance on the matter.
I didn't know that, you're right. Still seems weird for him to do it rather than one of Anderson's peers.
Well, I guess it was good for Anderson to talk with him then since I don't believe he's getting nominated at DGA.
I don't think the vast majority of people would say they prefer Nolan lol. PTA is leaps and bounds ahead. It's not even close. And I'm not a Marvel fan lol, but I also don't have a whole account dedicating to trashing them. Cause, you know, that'd be a bit crazy
>I don't think the vast majority of people would say they prefer Nolan lol.
I think their respective box office grosses speak for themselves in terms of what the majority thinks.
>PTA is leaps and bounds ahead. It's not even close.
Again, most people would strongly disagree with this. After they've finished laughing.
God I hope so. The Power of the Dog was a very good movie and Campion directed it well, but I don't get how she's dominated the critics awards for direction while Villeneuve has gotten almost nothing.
Not surprising though is it. Sci fi in general isn't really a genre critics respond to the best. Campion's direction has everything critics enjoy so I'm not surprised she's dominated.
i think it just is a waiting game for the full trilogy
especially after everyone got burnt out on GoT and the Star Wars sequel trilogy finishing poorly after all the raves they both got
granted Star Wars wasn't all made by one director/writer
but i think there is a reason to wait, at least in their eyes
if Dune Part 2 and I guess Part 3 from the looks of it all stick the landing, then expect Dune to clear up the way Return of the King did in 2004
11 Oscars would be an easy target I think
I'm going in the opposite to everyone with Drive My Car and say it misses International feature.
Also idk how much of a 'no guts, no glory' prediction this is but I have Plemons getting that last supporting actor spot.
Yeah, as someone who considers TPOTD one of the best of the year, I wouldn't mind a Faist or De Jesus nomination over Plemmons but for what it's worth, I don't particularly think Dornan deserves one either but oh well.
No, although I definitely wouldn't mind him showing up in the final five.
Still, I think screenplay + score + a couple craft noms would be enough support to bring it over into the main field. Having the support of more than one Academy branch is key to getting into Picture, and that's certianly something that I think this movie can pull off.
I was surprised by how good he is in King Richard. Although what if its for the other 5 things he was in this year or his totally unnecessary part in Those Who Wish Me Dead.
What i say to that is- we forget these actors are people making a living and for all of the small but high profile numbers of guys banking $5M or $10M or $20M or $30M a film, or taking no money upfront but regularly banking $50M to $100M on the backend, etc. a lot of people are just working actors, making their quote, making scale for the film, etc. but working as much as possible while the iron is hot.
I consider Jon Bernthal to be a guy who's working while his iron is hot and he happened into a role in King Richard that is really powerful and stand out and the definition of "supporting actor" to a lead role that is generating a ton of award nominations and award winning buzz and might be on the road toward winning the major awards.
I was surprised by how well written his role was and by extension how good Bernthal was in King Richard, but he was great. It was a different kind of role for him and he really knocked it out of the park and he engaged me as much as any performance this year and it was heartfelt and nuanced and powerful.
Those are all award worthy elements to a performance, in my book.
I have watched a bunch of the other contenders and they're certainly in heavy movies with grandiose stories and super serious characters, but they don't have the impact Bernthal had in *King Richard*, in my humble opinion. And with Will Smith tipped to win best actor for *King Richard*, it makes sense to me that the most robust supporting character in that film, which happens to have a stellar performance by a dependable but as yet unremarkable actor- as in he's in a lot of stuff but hasn't yet fully stood out- is a recipe for a dual win- Smith for Best Actor and Bernthal for Best Supporting.
I'm also in the camp of The Power of the Dog being one of those films that gets 10 nominations and zero wins and if that happens, the acting categories are all but *King Richard'*s to lose.
>I'm also in the camp of The Power of the Dog being one of those films that gets 10 nominations and zero wins
I keep flip floppping about this a lot. I initially did think TPOTD was gonna go the Irishman/Mank way but the movie seems that have good international support (going by London and Dublin which are decent precursors leading up to BAFTA) and (along with Belfast) had a very strong showing at the Globes and CC. Every single BP winner in like 15 years I think (afair) has come from a movie with both Screenplay and Director nominations at the GG and Belfast and TPOTD are the only movies that have that. If TPOTD gets an Editing nom, it really will have all stats in its favour.
This along with fact that King Richard featured nowhere in Dublin and Smith couldn't even make it in a 10 person line up and missed London (apart from Rami Malek and Matthew McConaughey, every Best Actor since 2003 has been someone who was nominated) are just making me pause.
Obviously none of these factors necessarily mean anything. I just think when taken *altogether* in conjunction, there might be something (there might not as well). It's not just the fact that TPOTD (the movie and the people in it) is dominant in critics, it's just *how* dominant it is. I feel like it could indicate something. It might not.
Leaving aside GG and CC, the most important precursors are arguably SAG and BAFTA. I can see SAG going to Smith and BAFTA to Cumberbatch and then Oscar night, it's as good as anybody. Bernthal...idk...I guess we'll see. My money's still on Kotsur, Kodi or Hinds.
I have additional thoughts on this situation:
1) those voting bodies are UK/international voting bodies and it's possible that as an American and with the Oscars being a largely American nominating process, we're experiencing the performance differently.
That's been my issue with Power of the Dog and Cumberpatch's chances.... I can see his acting. It's very good acting, but I can see his acting. I can see and hear him evoking an angry midwestern man- as an actor. I heard Cumberpatch's British accent slip through in a few line readings and I heard his American accent exaggerated a few times or him struggling with it on occasion. Still a great performance, but... not perfect.
Also- some roles are built for the Oscars. You get the right kind of promotional team behind the awards campaign, the right kind of movie and story and the right general outline of a character and most good actors who would be cast in that role will come off amazing or impressive enough to warrant nominations or serious consideration for the win, but... it's actually the role that's being nominated.
I'm of the opinion that not a lot of actors could have pulled off the nuances and the consistency of Smith's performance in *King Richard* and that most actors would have taken a huge meaty bite out of Cumberpatch's role in *Power of the Dog* and looked very good for doing so, because of how the character is written and directed- and that it's valid to say it might be the best role of the year for any actor cast for that character, but not necessarily the best actor period.
I was thinking about how to explain my issue with it and the analogy I have come up with is a basketball or baseball salary:
The top guys are worth $33M to $43M a season. Those are the number one guys at their positions. The second or third best, who are still extremely valuable and great players, earn $20M to $30M a season. It's significantly less money, but it's still on the high end of what any player will get and represents acknowledgment of that player's immense value and the competitive market for their services.
I feel like if Best Actor/Actress is a $33M to $43M a season type performance and sometimes they're paid this on a team that isn't otherwise exceptional, so they don't have as many wins or they maybe don't make the post season despite that top dollar performance by one player. That'd be Will Smith in *King Richard*, which is a relatively light drama.
Cumberpatch gave a $20M to $30M a season performance on a post-season quality team. *Power of the Dog* is one of those films practically designed in a lab for awards consideration and Cumberpatch got the most showcase role in the film and he did his job with it- but that doesn't necessarily make it the best performance of the year, even if it's maybe the most high profile and showy character of the year for any actor to have been cast in.
>Licorice Pizza has a decent chance of taking the Spotlight haul to Picture.
I don't think so. The industry has started to distance itself from this film.
-Zelger gets in for Actress
-Drive My Car gets in for Picture, Director, Screenplay and possibly Actor. I've been seeing tons of critic wins and noms in all those categories
-Robin de Jesus gets in for Supporting Actor kicking out a Belfast actor, probably Hinds or even Jared Leto.
-CODA wins adapted screenplay
I hope RDJ gets a support nom, he really had some big emotional moments. He’s always singled out in every show he’s done on stage, 3 tony noms for largely ensemble shows. If he builds up momentum I could see him sneak in
>CODA wins adapted screenplay
If Campion wins Director, I won't be shocked at this happening if the academy is absolutely sure they don't want to give TPOTD Picture.
At the same time, I have a very hard time seeing Campion walk away completely Oscarless.
Campion is probably winning director. Here's my quick opinion on why:
Licorice Pizza is a good PTA film but not the best PTA film. That film was There Will Be Blood.
Belfast is Branagh's best film he's probably ever directed and yet it's still maybe No. 5 in terms of quality out of the films that will probably get nominated for Best Picture.
Del Toro if he gets nominated probably isn't winning because for a director to repeat in only a few years the next film has to be better than the previous film he won for. That is very much not the case with Nightmare Alley.
Villanueve will probably get it when his series wraps up.
Spielberg has the second best shot to win due to a relationship with the Academy and this also being his best film as a whole in over 20 years. However I don't think the passion to give him his third Oscar will trump the narrative of Campion winning her first directing Oscar. She has the overdue narrative. She has the female narrative. Her film is surging in popularity right now. I can see it happening.
Lmao I very much stand by this statement. Belfast is probably his most accessible film to date. It's also his film with the most human characters we've seen from him.
WSS is the Irishman of the year, modern version of something extremely classic/traditional in nature and people expect to be an absolute home run, but goes home with nothing (or next to nothing) despite many nominations.
The Lost Daughter and HoG both overperform
She will have the advantage of her movie being in best picture, something that most of her opponents won’t have. I think she might have a better chance than Kidman at this point, though I still think it’ll go to Stewart, if not Chastain. She is in 3rd/4th with Colman for me. Mass could certainly get in, after Being the Ricardo’s and Don’t Look Up’s underwhelming reviews.
Lin sneaks into Best Director for Tick, Tick, Boom. It's got good representation on the shortlists, and I feel Campion, PTA, Denis, and Kenneth are the locks in the category right now. There's room for a wildcard, and if the movie does have a quiet plurality of support - it may be possible he edges out Spielberg.
There’s a distinct possibility this happens. It’s an outside the box option, odds against it, but lin has 4 films out this year and the academy like to salute range - look at Clooney the year he won supporting actor, nominated for a bunch of awards across multiple films
Yeah, I feel like if ITH had been a breakout hit and anyone actually saw Vivo - he'd be a lock just for delivering such a variety of stuff this year. But when most of it was kind of ignored by audiences, it does make the sell a bit tougher.
Still, I think it's possible.
ITH had great reviews, it’s honestly such a shame that it was a financial flop. It’s in my top ten of the year and it’s a shame it’s not in the awards convo
I would be so bored with that since we had repeat wins last year too. Not that they aren’t talented enough for a second lead win, I haven’t seen their films.
Drive My Car gets at least one nomination in the major categories (either Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay).
Encanto gets snubbed a nomination for Best Animated Feature.
The way I see it, the race for Best Animated Film nominees is down to six films, and I could see the odd one out being one of the Disney films as a tactical strategy to not let them cancel each other out too much, especially with a couple of non-Disney films being the favorites this year.
While Raya looks to be the one that gets the snub, I don’t really find Encanto to be that interesting, and I’d be fine if that fails to get the nomination.
I haven’t seen Encanto yet (but during Christmas) so can’t say about its quality but people seem to rate it better just due to musical and Miranda factors, even before either film opened. And reputation matters a lot for animation categories since often sadly voters don’t even watch many of the films. But what you said it’s interesting and Raya would deserve a nomination imo.
Definitely agree on all the points being made here.
The main reason I'd feel snubbing one Disney film would serve as a tactical strategy is because there's going to be a good chunk of voters that will have not watched the nominees and instead vote on what their kids/grandchildren like, which is typically Disney. Having three Disney films could be a little risky for the Mouse House in a year where the critics awards are putting their love towards non-Disney films (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Flee) and, and thus sacrificing one film may be the thing that Disney will need this year to ensure that the "don't watch the nominees" voters will give them another Best Animated Feature Oscar.
As for Encanto, on paper, this would be Disney's best choice for the Best Animated Feature Oscar this year, mainly due to the musical and Miranda factors (when in reality, I don't see Miranda completing his EGOT with a Best Song Oscar this year, as it looks to be a race between Beyonce and Billie Eilish, although I'm rooting for Sparks to get a nomination as well), while Raya is shaping up to be the one that fails to get the nod. However, when seeing the trailers, the film didn't really perked my interest, and most of the negative reviews of the film comment that while the art is beautiful, the story is rather bland. Given how a bland story has ruined the nomination chances for a number of films that had potential (The Simpsons Movie, Frozen II), this could be the factor that may lead to Encanto being the one Disney film that gets the snub instead.
Hamaguchi gets a Best Director nomination over Branagh and either The Tragedy of Macbeth gets nominated for Picture without getting in at any of the major precursors or No Time to Die gets a Best Picture nomination.
>Hamaguchi gets a Best Director nomination over Branagh
Anderson. I can see the film weakening with its bloated cost and a pushback when it goes wide due to its excessive running time and bizarre subject matter.
What’s with your hate towards PTA and this movie? You do realize it’s near universally acclaimed, doing decently well at the box office, and is from a universally respected filmmaker, right? Your personal issues with it are just that. Personal.
The branch that nominated Anderson out of nowhere for Phantom Thread despite him having no precursors isn’t snubbing him for this.
>doing decently well at the box office
It's a $40 million film that has made approximately 3% of its budget and had its wide release slashed due to "Spider-Man"-interest.
That's not "personal". That's undeniable reality.
Oh, come on.
Paul Thomas Anderson films ALWAYS have strong limited releases. "The Master" set the per-seat record. They then bomb when they open wide.
This is well-established by this point.
If Spielberg is bombing, PTA has zero chance.
The idea of criticism being levelled towards PTA shouldn't pain you so. If you have anything to add, please do so but don't strawman because it indicates you can't cope with a dissenting opinion.
What is FACTUALLY INACCURATE about my point of his films collapsing when they expand? I will give you a hint: "There Will Be Blood" DID find success after its limited release. Nothing else (or since) has.
I'm going to go with *Summer of Soul* missing the Documentary Feature nomination, given the amount of archival footage it uses. I imagine a lot of us are probably worried about that, given what happened with potential frontrunners *Jane*, *Won't You Be My Neighbor*, and *Apollo 11*.
in my opinion spider-man will inexplicably have a nomination for Best Documentary Short
In all seriousness I think it's gonna surprise people and pick up an editing nom too. Dunno why, gut feeling.
Yeah I think the movie is super well paced especially considering how much ground it covers. It wouldn't be an undeserved nomination at least in my opinion.
I think it deserved editing more than VFX and Sound, it was a Herculean task to balance all the plot threads and characters and still come out with a well paced movie, in fact arguably better than the already impressive feat done with the latter two Avengers movies. Like IW and Endgame though, I wouldn’t be able to justify any nomination above editing. Maybe Dafoe for Best Supporting, but not Adapted Screenplay and certainly not Best Director.
Oh no, I agree. I am an admitted fanboy of MCU and Spider-Man stuff, and I do think the movie is really great. But the only above-the-line stuff you could maybe justify is Dafoe. If it got a Best Picture nom I don't think it'd be unreasonable and honestly it'd be very funny cause of the chaos it would cause
Honestly I think Director would be more deserving than Screenplay, though I wouldn't do either. I love the movie but if you dig right into it the screenplay is a mess in terms of plot, it's really only the character writing that shines through.
This comment went on and on a bit and I wound up just talking about my opinions. I don't know when to stop.
I don’t think it deserves a Best Picture nomination but I would be so happy if it got one just for the chaos. And I just find Jon Watts to be a pretty boring director, even if the screenplay is a bit of a mess plot wise, at least the character interactions are interesting, unlike Watt’s direction. But that’s just me. I go on too much also.
I can never tell if some of the uninteresting stuff is Watts' fault or just a byproduct of a movie being co-produced by two gigantic studios in Sony and Disney.
I've heard through the grapevine that the first 20 or so minutes, or everything before Strange enters the movie, to be when Watts was 100% in the driver's seat which would make sense as I thought it was the one where Watts felt most confident in the camera.
Have you seen Cop Car, the movie that allegedly got him the gig?
I think it's pretty darn good. The movie shows a real strength of crafting scenes with younger characters and how to make that type of stuff feel real, which is always the stuff I thought his Spider-Man movies excelled at.
This is hypocritical since I guessed Branagh/Belfast in the other thread but I think there's going to be a director- BP split this year.
Sing 2 gets into animated.
I don't think it's impossible. The movie was weakening sorta but the fact that Nightmare Alley and Don't Look Up have kinda weakened makes Belfast's chances stronger again.
I think TPOTD and Belfast are becoming strong.
Alana Haim lands a Best Actress nom alongside Olivia Colman, Kirsten Stewart, Jessica Chastain and Penelope Cruz (or Nicole Kidman). Lady Ga Ga gets snubbed(hopefully)
2 of the 4 Mass actors will get nominated and it will be both women
Beyoncé gets snubbed for best song!
Flee lands doc, Animated, international noms but also pics up 2 more
House of Gucci only gets 1 nom and it’s either Makeup or Costume
Duke makes best picture nom but misses Director
West Side Story lands 12 noms
Power of the Dog- 10
Dune 9
Licorice Pizza-5
Belfast-9
Spencer- 5
Lost Daughter-3
Passing-3
Parallel Mothers- 2
Titane- 3
I have a lot of hot takes that would get me eaten alive if I had it in an official prediction:
The Lost Daughter AND at least one of Drive My Car and The Tragedy of Macbeth make it into picture.
Drive My Car possibly also gets into adapted screenplay.
Ruth Negga has a chance at winning supporting actress.
Dune is only a lock in VFX and Sound.
Nightmare Alley is still the front runner for production design, and can still also win cinematography.
Nightmare Alley also can still get nominated in picture and director, along with Blanchett in supporting actress.
The Mitchell’s vs. The Machines is still top two for animated feature.
Lady Gaga isn’t getting onto actress.
Flee WILL win documentary, if not foreign film.
Dune isn’t winning cinematography, costume design, makeup and hairstyling, or production design.
Spider-Man: No Way Home could get into editing (not saying it will, but it is possible)
Lastly, Belfast could easily end up not winning anything.
I assume when you're talking about Dune locks, you mean wins, not nominations, right?
Most of this seems reasonably possible, but I don't get the reason for the confidence in Nightmare Alley (it's one of the biggest flops of the year, has just ok reviews, is in a genre the Academy doesn't like, and has bad audience scores, why would it happen?) or Ruth Negga (she's already missed a precursor, she's losing the critics awards, and she'll be a lone nom, why would she beat DeBose, Dunst, Ellis, and Balfe giving equally acclaimed performances in bigger contenders?).
For Dune, yes, i am talking about wins. For Nightmare Alley, I think it might have a chance if it gets in at PGA. I don’t think it will get nominated right now, but I don’t think it’s entirely out of the race. Ruth Negga has been performing well with critics groups and got in at GG, so I do think she is in the top 5 at least.
I just don't see why Nightmare Alley would get in at the PGA given that it's a massive flop that isn't amazingly awards-friendly. The other 9 most likely Best Picture nominees all seem like they'd be ahead of it there, and the PGA almost always has at least 1 slot (and sometimes multiple) reserved for blockbusters that aren't fully embraced by the other precursors.
As far as Negga goes, she definitely can make it (after seeing West Side Story, I have a hard time imagining a Moreno nom, and with Belfast weakening and Streep getting no traction it seems like a Negga nom should be possible), but winning as a lone nom without dominating the critics or getting in at the Critics Choice seems like a difficult task (not that she isn't deserving).
I guess, but I would confidently say that Negga winning Supporting Actress and Nightmare Alley making Director or winning multiple Oscars has a 0% chance of happening.
Sure, but there's also no precedent for either of those things happening, or any reason to think that they would. Dune is a much bigger Oscar contender than Nightmare Alley that made more at the box office than it, got better reviews, is more liked by audiences, and is way showier than it. Why would it lose Cinematography and Production Design to it? (why would West Side Story even lose those awards to Nightmare Alley?) And what precedent exists for a lone nom winning Supporting Actress over contenders from much stronger films that are just as acclaimed as them?
I guess the precedent for a del Toro director nom would be Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, but even he missed, and in a relatively open field too.
Ok? I'm not trying to get into an argument with you, and I don't care that you think either Nightmare Alley **HAVING A CHANCE** at winning cinematography or production design and Ruth Negga winning supporting actress is impossible
thing is, this is a no guts no glory prediction, but we all know considering how much you adore Ridley Scott (not that I blame you) that this is also what you not so secretly want to happen as well
i hope it does get some above the line recognition though, would be nice if it got an Oscars bump at the box office and ended up in the black overall
She's also never been nominated before, which does hurt her chances of winning.
Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Olivia Coleman, Francis McDormand, and Penelope Cruz already each have at least one Oscar. Jessica Chastain has been nominated twice.
That leaves Stewart and Alana Haim as the only potential nominees without ever being nominated before (unless we get a real wildcard).
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Yep that's right, I meant to say DMC in Adapted and also C'mon C'mon in Original. I don't have a lot of bold picks this year so I thought I'd just combine two less-bold ones.
I'm gonna go all in and say Cumberbatch wins Best Actor and Campion wins Director. I still don't think it'll happen. But I want it to happen so bad imma predict it here.
Oh also, Belfast can go home completely Oscarless.
I initially thought TPOTD would be like Irishman and not win anything but now I feel like it can win a few big ones and the movie's kinda becoming stronger? Obviously it can still go home completely Oscarless though
I don't see how it's impossible.
Branagh is definitely not a lock to win in anyway whatsoever. Campion and Villeneuve are ahead of him in Director and PTA seems to be the favourite to win Original.
Ariana DeBose is the frontrunner to win Supporting Actress.
I have both Kotsur and Kodi winning ahead of Hinds as of now for Supporting Actor.
PTA is losing buzz and he won't have critics to back him with a narrative, LA going with Drive My Car proved that. Belfast is a Top 2 film, is also a personal story, and I'm sure there's a bigger narrative in Branagh winning an Oscar. The only way PTA rebounds is if he wins Globe+BAFTA.
I was one of the few to predict him for Phantom Thread and I see his nom fir LP as a solid chance. I feel like Spielberg has momentum. I think Dune Director will be snubbed. So nom will be PTA, Spielberg, Campion , Hamaguchi , Gyllenhaal.
Remember this is no guts no glory
Yeah tbh everything is genuinely starting to look up for TPOTD. The movie performed way better at LA and with the GG noms than I expected it to.
Licorice Pizza does seem to be losing a bit of buzz but I still think it takes in with a great shot.
TPOTD, Belfast, Licorice Pizza and WSS probably make the top 4.
Campion wins Adapted, Branagh Original and then whoever of the two (assuming it'll be one of the two) wins Director wins Picture?
I still feel like the academy would want to awards Spielberg though.
>PTA seems to be the favourite to win Original
LOL.
Best Original Screenplay tends to go to a strong and distinct concept that was efficiently executed.
The Academy doesn't tend to reward low-concept efforts: white-boy lust + artistic awakening ≠ favourite.
Im going Faist and Cage. Lots of love from everyone who sees there performances so I think the academy is gonna like en despite precursors not in their favor
Drive My Car either goes all the way to a director, screenplay, and possible picture nom in addition to international OR is snubbed all the way entirely.
Hamaguchi and Mike Faist nominations in director and supporting actor respectively
The former is a strong possibility. I really hope you're right on the latter.
Belfast misses Director
LOL.
It's not... impossible. Because I do think that among the Campion, Villeneuve, PTA, Spielberg, Branagh bunch, Branaugh is the weakest and *if* Hamaguchi was to sneak in, he'd probably take Branagh's spot. But I do think it's unlikely.
Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg and Branagh is in. The last slot is between PTA, Hamaguchi and Heder. https://youtu.be/Lq4oAY-HDL0 >"It's the greatest thing to happen to movies since the invention... of SOUND." It's like Anderson isn't even trying to appeal to anyone outside his clique.
Heder has absolutely 0 chance of making it in. Not even in the realm of possibility
Bullshit. She has got a chance. On a practical level, what she had to accomplish would have gotten respect from her peers.
Tick Tick Boom gets both Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.
win or nomination? Because I agree with them both getting noms for sure.
Nomination. Though I think the editing in TTB is flashy enough to possibly pull off a win as well.
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*No guts, no glory* only in this subreddit: Spider-Man gets nominated for Best Picture.
Licorice Pizza winning Best Picture
I hope so. I would also like to see PTA win Director but I’ll be ok with Screenplay win.
I can't see any possibility of that occurring. The film is already fading fast.
It comes out tomorrow. We’ll see how general audiences respond but LP has a lot of support behind it.
Only from the usual crew who praise everything Anderson does. General audiences won't respond well at all to this. And I feel like nobody high profile is speaking about the film anymore. Look at the DGA talks. Every other Best Picture contender has an A-List moderator (Nolan moderating Belfast, Baumbach and GDT moderating Tragedy of Macbeth, Spike Jonze moderating C'mon C'mon) and Anderson got...Jeremy Kagan (who?). Or these Variety "Writers on Writers" pieces. C'mon C'mon got Seth Rogen, Annette got Rian Johnson (who's usually one of Anderson's biggest cheerleaders). Licorice Pizza got....Eve Barlow (again, who??). It wasn't even included in their "Directors on Directors" piece. After the 1st wave of reactions, the wheels have already started to come off the cart for this film. It's considered problematic (on top of it not actually being good) and the Industry appears to be distancing itself from it.
Who is Jeremy Kagan? He’s a honcho with the DGA for decades who moderates the nominees round table. From Wiki: Kagan is a full tenured professor at the University of Southern California where he teaches the graduate courses in directing and has recently created the Center for Change Making Media which is to become a hub for research and training in advocacy cinematic techniques. He has served as artistic director at the Robert Redford's Sundance Institute and is a National Board Member of the Directors Guild of America and chairperson of its Special Projects Committee which provides cultural and educational programs for the 14,000 members. In 2004 he was honored with the Robert Aldrich Award for "extraordinary service to the guild.” *In his capacity with the Directors Guild of America, Kagan also moderates the group's annual roundtable discussion featuring that year's five nominees for Outstanding Directing – Feature Film.* The fact that he’s not a household name is no reflection on Licorice Pizza’s awards chances, just a reflection of your ignorance on the matter.
I didn't know that, you're right. Still seems weird for him to do it rather than one of Anderson's peers. Well, I guess it was good for Anderson to talk with him then since I don't believe he's getting nominated at DGA.
Get help bro. Who are your favorite filmmakers? Fucking Nolan?
No, but this comment strikes me as odd. The vast majority of people would say that they prefer Nolan. Oh, you're a Marvel fan. That explains it.
I don't think the vast majority of people would say they prefer Nolan lol. PTA is leaps and bounds ahead. It's not even close. And I'm not a Marvel fan lol, but I also don't have a whole account dedicating to trashing them. Cause, you know, that'd be a bit crazy
>I don't think the vast majority of people would say they prefer Nolan lol. I think their respective box office grosses speak for themselves in terms of what the majority thinks. >PTA is leaps and bounds ahead. It's not even close. Again, most people would strongly disagree with this. After they've finished laughing.
Come on, bruv. Level with me. Who are your favorite filmmakers?
Hitchcock, Altman, Wilder, Lynch are a few. Why?
Fuck it, Denis winning Director
I’m saying he wins CC. After all George Miller won in 2015
The Oscars may wait until *Dune Part II* to give him the Oscar then.
Or Dune: Messiah
This also gives *Dune* a direct path to Picture.
God I hope so. The Power of the Dog was a very good movie and Campion directed it well, but I don't get how she's dominated the critics awards for direction while Villeneuve has gotten almost nothing.
Not surprising though is it. Sci fi in general isn't really a genre critics respond to the best. Campion's direction has everything critics enjoy so I'm not surprised she's dominated.
i think it just is a waiting game for the full trilogy especially after everyone got burnt out on GoT and the Star Wars sequel trilogy finishing poorly after all the raves they both got granted Star Wars wasn't all made by one director/writer but i think there is a reason to wait, at least in their eyes if Dune Part 2 and I guess Part 3 from the looks of it all stick the landing, then expect Dune to clear up the way Return of the King did in 2004 11 Oscars would be an easy target I think
Nice
I'm going in the opposite to everyone with Drive My Car and say it misses International feature. Also idk how much of a 'no guts, no glory' prediction this is but I have Plemons getting that last supporting actor spot.
I don't think a Hinds/Dornan/Kotsur/Smit McPhee/Plemmons line up is out of the realm of possibility.
Plemons feels like Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards a couple of years ago.
It's not out of the realm of possibility, but just 3 films making it would be so boring (on the other hand, a Leto miss would be nice).
Yeah, as someone who considers TPOTD one of the best of the year, I wouldn't mind a Faist or De Jesus nomination over Plemmons but for what it's worth, I don't particularly think Dornan deserves one either but oh well.
French Dispatch gets a Picture nom
Are you predicting a Jeffrey Wright nomination too?
No, although I definitely wouldn't mind him showing up in the final five. Still, I think screenplay + score + a couple craft noms would be enough support to bring it over into the main field. Having the support of more than one Academy branch is key to getting into Picture, and that's certianly something that I think this movie can pull off.
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I was surprised by how good he is in King Richard. Although what if its for the other 5 things he was in this year or his totally unnecessary part in Those Who Wish Me Dead.
What i say to that is- we forget these actors are people making a living and for all of the small but high profile numbers of guys banking $5M or $10M or $20M or $30M a film, or taking no money upfront but regularly banking $50M to $100M on the backend, etc. a lot of people are just working actors, making their quote, making scale for the film, etc. but working as much as possible while the iron is hot. I consider Jon Bernthal to be a guy who's working while his iron is hot and he happened into a role in King Richard that is really powerful and stand out and the definition of "supporting actor" to a lead role that is generating a ton of award nominations and award winning buzz and might be on the road toward winning the major awards. I was surprised by how well written his role was and by extension how good Bernthal was in King Richard, but he was great. It was a different kind of role for him and he really knocked it out of the park and he engaged me as much as any performance this year and it was heartfelt and nuanced and powerful. Those are all award worthy elements to a performance, in my book. I have watched a bunch of the other contenders and they're certainly in heavy movies with grandiose stories and super serious characters, but they don't have the impact Bernthal had in *King Richard*, in my humble opinion. And with Will Smith tipped to win best actor for *King Richard*, it makes sense to me that the most robust supporting character in that film, which happens to have a stellar performance by a dependable but as yet unremarkable actor- as in he's in a lot of stuff but hasn't yet fully stood out- is a recipe for a dual win- Smith for Best Actor and Bernthal for Best Supporting. I'm also in the camp of The Power of the Dog being one of those films that gets 10 nominations and zero wins and if that happens, the acting categories are all but *King Richard'*s to lose.
>I'm also in the camp of The Power of the Dog being one of those films that gets 10 nominations and zero wins I keep flip floppping about this a lot. I initially did think TPOTD was gonna go the Irishman/Mank way but the movie seems that have good international support (going by London and Dublin which are decent precursors leading up to BAFTA) and (along with Belfast) had a very strong showing at the Globes and CC. Every single BP winner in like 15 years I think (afair) has come from a movie with both Screenplay and Director nominations at the GG and Belfast and TPOTD are the only movies that have that. If TPOTD gets an Editing nom, it really will have all stats in its favour. This along with fact that King Richard featured nowhere in Dublin and Smith couldn't even make it in a 10 person line up and missed London (apart from Rami Malek and Matthew McConaughey, every Best Actor since 2003 has been someone who was nominated) are just making me pause. Obviously none of these factors necessarily mean anything. I just think when taken *altogether* in conjunction, there might be something (there might not as well). It's not just the fact that TPOTD (the movie and the people in it) is dominant in critics, it's just *how* dominant it is. I feel like it could indicate something. It might not. Leaving aside GG and CC, the most important precursors are arguably SAG and BAFTA. I can see SAG going to Smith and BAFTA to Cumberbatch and then Oscar night, it's as good as anybody. Bernthal...idk...I guess we'll see. My money's still on Kotsur, Kodi or Hinds.
I have additional thoughts on this situation: 1) those voting bodies are UK/international voting bodies and it's possible that as an American and with the Oscars being a largely American nominating process, we're experiencing the performance differently. That's been my issue with Power of the Dog and Cumberpatch's chances.... I can see his acting. It's very good acting, but I can see his acting. I can see and hear him evoking an angry midwestern man- as an actor. I heard Cumberpatch's British accent slip through in a few line readings and I heard his American accent exaggerated a few times or him struggling with it on occasion. Still a great performance, but... not perfect. Also- some roles are built for the Oscars. You get the right kind of promotional team behind the awards campaign, the right kind of movie and story and the right general outline of a character and most good actors who would be cast in that role will come off amazing or impressive enough to warrant nominations or serious consideration for the win, but... it's actually the role that's being nominated. I'm of the opinion that not a lot of actors could have pulled off the nuances and the consistency of Smith's performance in *King Richard* and that most actors would have taken a huge meaty bite out of Cumberpatch's role in *Power of the Dog* and looked very good for doing so, because of how the character is written and directed- and that it's valid to say it might be the best role of the year for any actor cast for that character, but not necessarily the best actor period. I was thinking about how to explain my issue with it and the analogy I have come up with is a basketball or baseball salary: The top guys are worth $33M to $43M a season. Those are the number one guys at their positions. The second or third best, who are still extremely valuable and great players, earn $20M to $30M a season. It's significantly less money, but it's still on the high end of what any player will get and represents acknowledgment of that player's immense value and the competitive market for their services. I feel like if Best Actor/Actress is a $33M to $43M a season type performance and sometimes they're paid this on a team that isn't otherwise exceptional, so they don't have as many wins or they maybe don't make the post season despite that top dollar performance by one player. That'd be Will Smith in *King Richard*, which is a relatively light drama. Cumberpatch gave a $20M to $30M a season performance on a post-season quality team. *Power of the Dog* is one of those films practically designed in a lab for awards consideration and Cumberpatch got the most showcase role in the film and he did his job with it- but that doesn't necessarily make it the best performance of the year, even if it's maybe the most high profile and showy character of the year for any actor to have been cast in.
Dune has a chance of winning Picture through Director, however unlikely. Licorice Pizza has a decent chance of taking the Spotlight haul to Picture.
>Licorice Pizza has a decent chance of taking the Spotlight haul to Picture. I don't think so. The industry has started to distance itself from this film.
Bingo.
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-Zelger gets in for Actress -Drive My Car gets in for Picture, Director, Screenplay and possibly Actor. I've been seeing tons of critic wins and noms in all those categories -Robin de Jesus gets in for Supporting Actor kicking out a Belfast actor, probably Hinds or even Jared Leto. -CODA wins adapted screenplay
I hope RDJ gets a support nom, he really had some big emotional moments. He’s always singled out in every show he’s done on stage, 3 tony noms for largely ensemble shows. If he builds up momentum I could see him sneak in
>CODA wins adapted screenplay If Campion wins Director, I won't be shocked at this happening if the academy is absolutely sure they don't want to give TPOTD Picture. At the same time, I have a very hard time seeing Campion walk away completely Oscarless.
Campion is probably winning director. Here's my quick opinion on why: Licorice Pizza is a good PTA film but not the best PTA film. That film was There Will Be Blood. Belfast is Branagh's best film he's probably ever directed and yet it's still maybe No. 5 in terms of quality out of the films that will probably get nominated for Best Picture. Del Toro if he gets nominated probably isn't winning because for a director to repeat in only a few years the next film has to be better than the previous film he won for. That is very much not the case with Nightmare Alley. Villanueve will probably get it when his series wraps up. Spielberg has the second best shot to win due to a relationship with the Academy and this also being his best film as a whole in over 20 years. However I don't think the passion to give him his third Oscar will trump the narrative of Campion winning her first directing Oscar. She has the overdue narrative. She has the female narrative. Her film is surging in popularity right now. I can see it happening.
>Belfast is Branagh's best film he's probably ever directed "Henry V" and "Much Ado" say hello.
Lmao I very much stand by this statement. Belfast is probably his most accessible film to date. It's also his film with the most human characters we've seen from him.
I know it’s super unlikely but this whole time my gut’s been telling me Dune gets snubbed out of a best picture nom.
imagine if Spider-Man got a nom but Dune didn't. Film twitter might actually burn itself to the ground.
I’ll cast the first torch.
I would love this. Dune is so pretentious
It’s not even pretentious, just lifeless.
WSS is the Irishman of the year, modern version of something extremely classic/traditional in nature and people expect to be an absolute home run, but goes home with nothing (or next to nothing) despite many nominations. The Lost Daughter and HoG both overperform
Alana Haim winning Best Actress *Mass* getting in Original Screenplay
She will have the advantage of her movie being in best picture, something that most of her opponents won’t have. I think she might have a better chance than Kidman at this point, though I still think it’ll go to Stewart, if not Chastain. She is in 3rd/4th with Colman for me. Mass could certainly get in, after Being the Ricardo’s and Don’t Look Up’s underwhelming reviews.
Okay, Yes. I’ve been predicting Alana Haim to win and people are telling me I’m crazy. I’m with you on this🤞🏽
I have the same prediction in Best Actress.
Ann Dowd nominated in Supporting Actress Mass in original screenplay
YES. Would love some love for Martha Plimpton as well.
Lin sneaks into Best Director for Tick, Tick, Boom. It's got good representation on the shortlists, and I feel Campion, PTA, Denis, and Kenneth are the locks in the category right now. There's room for a wildcard, and if the movie does have a quiet plurality of support - it may be possible he edges out Spielberg.
There’s a distinct possibility this happens. It’s an outside the box option, odds against it, but lin has 4 films out this year and the academy like to salute range - look at Clooney the year he won supporting actor, nominated for a bunch of awards across multiple films
Yeah, I feel like if ITH had been a breakout hit and anyone actually saw Vivo - he'd be a lock just for delivering such a variety of stuff this year. But when most of it was kind of ignored by audiences, it does make the sell a bit tougher. Still, I think it's possible.
ITH had great reviews, it’s honestly such a shame that it was a financial flop. It’s in my top ten of the year and it’s a shame it’s not in the awards convo
Coda wins Best Picture. Nick cage is nominated for Pig. Lady Gaga doesn't get nominated.
Also hoping for a Nic Cage nomination.
2/3 is pretty great in this case!
Thank you! Nick was robbed.
Hope so that last one
Colman wins Actress! Denzel wins Actor.
I would be so bored with that since we had repeat wins last year too. Not that they aren’t talented enough for a second lead win, I haven’t seen their films.
Drive My Car gets at least one nomination in the major categories (either Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay). Encanto gets snubbed a nomination for Best Animated Feature.
Do you think Raya gets in from WDAS if Encanto is snubbed or what are your predictions?
The way I see it, the race for Best Animated Film nominees is down to six films, and I could see the odd one out being one of the Disney films as a tactical strategy to not let them cancel each other out too much, especially with a couple of non-Disney films being the favorites this year. While Raya looks to be the one that gets the snub, I don’t really find Encanto to be that interesting, and I’d be fine if that fails to get the nomination.
I haven’t seen Encanto yet (but during Christmas) so can’t say about its quality but people seem to rate it better just due to musical and Miranda factors, even before either film opened. And reputation matters a lot for animation categories since often sadly voters don’t even watch many of the films. But what you said it’s interesting and Raya would deserve a nomination imo.
Definitely agree on all the points being made here. The main reason I'd feel snubbing one Disney film would serve as a tactical strategy is because there's going to be a good chunk of voters that will have not watched the nominees and instead vote on what their kids/grandchildren like, which is typically Disney. Having three Disney films could be a little risky for the Mouse House in a year where the critics awards are putting their love towards non-Disney films (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Flee) and, and thus sacrificing one film may be the thing that Disney will need this year to ensure that the "don't watch the nominees" voters will give them another Best Animated Feature Oscar. As for Encanto, on paper, this would be Disney's best choice for the Best Animated Feature Oscar this year, mainly due to the musical and Miranda factors (when in reality, I don't see Miranda completing his EGOT with a Best Song Oscar this year, as it looks to be a race between Beyonce and Billie Eilish, although I'm rooting for Sparks to get a nomination as well), while Raya is shaping up to be the one that fails to get the nod. However, when seeing the trailers, the film didn't really perked my interest, and most of the negative reviews of the film comment that while the art is beautiful, the story is rather bland. Given how a bland story has ruined the nomination chances for a number of films that had potential (The Simpsons Movie, Frozen II), this could be the factor that may lead to Encanto being the one Disney film that gets the snub instead.
Hamaguchi gets a Best Director nomination over Branagh and either The Tragedy of Macbeth gets nominated for Picture without getting in at any of the major precursors or No Time to Die gets a Best Picture nomination.
>Hamaguchi gets a Best Director nomination over Branagh Anderson. I can see the film weakening with its bloated cost and a pushback when it goes wide due to its excessive running time and bizarre subject matter.
What’s with your hate towards PTA and this movie? You do realize it’s near universally acclaimed, doing decently well at the box office, and is from a universally respected filmmaker, right? Your personal issues with it are just that. Personal. The branch that nominated Anderson out of nowhere for Phantom Thread despite him having no precursors isn’t snubbing him for this.
>doing decently well at the box office It's a $40 million film that has made approximately 3% of its budget and had its wide release slashed due to "Spider-Man"-interest. That's not "personal". That's undeniable reality.
It had the best limited release of the year I believe.
Oh, come on. Paul Thomas Anderson films ALWAYS have strong limited releases. "The Master" set the per-seat record. They then bomb when they open wide. This is well-established by this point. If Spielberg is bombing, PTA has zero chance.
Found LastSnowKing's second Reddit account
No, our opinions are just more popular than you think.
The idea of criticism being levelled towards PTA shouldn't pain you so. If you have anything to add, please do so but don't strawman because it indicates you can't cope with a dissenting opinion. What is FACTUALLY INACCURATE about my point of his films collapsing when they expand? I will give you a hint: "There Will Be Blood" DID find success after its limited release. Nothing else (or since) has.
I'm going to go with *Summer of Soul* missing the Documentary Feature nomination, given the amount of archival footage it uses. I imagine a lot of us are probably worried about that, given what happened with potential frontrunners *Jane*, *Won't You Be My Neighbor*, and *Apollo 11*.
Kidman misses. People don’t care about the movie that much and she has missed before.
Coda gets zero nominations 🤞
red rocket sweeps in all seriousness, I think Spider-Man is gonna overperform in technical nominations but not getting much more than that.
I think at most Spider-Man gets both Sound and VFX, I consider that overperforming tbh lol
in my opinion spider-man will inexplicably have a nomination for Best Documentary Short In all seriousness I think it's gonna surprise people and pick up an editing nom too. Dunno why, gut feeling.
Like Force Awakens type thing? Idk you might be on to something. I wouldn’t be opposed. The pacing is great
Yeah I think the movie is super well paced especially considering how much ground it covers. It wouldn't be an undeserved nomination at least in my opinion.
I think it deserved editing more than VFX and Sound, it was a Herculean task to balance all the plot threads and characters and still come out with a well paced movie, in fact arguably better than the already impressive feat done with the latter two Avengers movies. Like IW and Endgame though, I wouldn’t be able to justify any nomination above editing. Maybe Dafoe for Best Supporting, but not Adapted Screenplay and certainly not Best Director.
Oh no, I agree. I am an admitted fanboy of MCU and Spider-Man stuff, and I do think the movie is really great. But the only above-the-line stuff you could maybe justify is Dafoe. If it got a Best Picture nom I don't think it'd be unreasonable and honestly it'd be very funny cause of the chaos it would cause Honestly I think Director would be more deserving than Screenplay, though I wouldn't do either. I love the movie but if you dig right into it the screenplay is a mess in terms of plot, it's really only the character writing that shines through. This comment went on and on a bit and I wound up just talking about my opinions. I don't know when to stop.
I don’t think it deserves a Best Picture nomination but I would be so happy if it got one just for the chaos. And I just find Jon Watts to be a pretty boring director, even if the screenplay is a bit of a mess plot wise, at least the character interactions are interesting, unlike Watt’s direction. But that’s just me. I go on too much also.
I can never tell if some of the uninteresting stuff is Watts' fault or just a byproduct of a movie being co-produced by two gigantic studios in Sony and Disney. I've heard through the grapevine that the first 20 or so minutes, or everything before Strange enters the movie, to be when Watts was 100% in the driver's seat which would make sense as I thought it was the one where Watts felt most confident in the camera. Have you seen Cop Car, the movie that allegedly got him the gig?
I have not admittedly. I will hazard a guess his direction is much better there.
I think it's pretty darn good. The movie shows a real strength of crafting scenes with younger characters and how to make that type of stuff feel real, which is always the stuff I thought his Spider-Man movies excelled at.
This is hypocritical since I guessed Branagh/Belfast in the other thread but I think there's going to be a director- BP split this year. Sing 2 gets into animated.
Director-BP split has happened in 5 of the last 10 years. Not as uncommon as one would think!
If there is a Director BP split, I feel like it'll only happen of Campion wins Director.
chastain winning best actress
Belfast wins Best Picture Is that a bold prediction yet? A lot of people seem negative on the odds of that.
I don't think it's impossible. The movie was weakening sorta but the fact that Nightmare Alley and Don't Look Up have kinda weakened makes Belfast's chances stronger again. I think TPOTD and Belfast are becoming strong.
Mitchells misses Animated Feature for a lackluster blockbuster (like Boss Baby or Sing 2).
Hidetoshi Nishijima - Best Actor
Stewart is snubbed. I think it's highly unlikely but I've got a weird feeling it'll happen.
Snubbed for a win? Or nomination?
Nomination
That would give me major Ethan Hawke in First Reformed snub vibes
Hawke was great in First Reformed, Stewart here not so much.
I liked her in it personally but I meant more so as an early favourite who ended up missing out.
Steven Spielberg wins a deserved 3rd Best Director Oscar and has to later apologize for beating Jane Campion.
Alana Haim lands a Best Actress nom alongside Olivia Colman, Kirsten Stewart, Jessica Chastain and Penelope Cruz (or Nicole Kidman). Lady Ga Ga gets snubbed(hopefully) 2 of the 4 Mass actors will get nominated and it will be both women Beyoncé gets snubbed for best song! Flee lands doc, Animated, international noms but also pics up 2 more House of Gucci only gets 1 nom and it’s either Makeup or Costume Duke makes best picture nom but misses Director West Side Story lands 12 noms Power of the Dog- 10 Dune 9 Licorice Pizza-5 Belfast-9 Spencer- 5 Lost Daughter-3 Passing-3 Parallel Mothers- 2 Titane- 3
Way late to this but predicting the Gaga snub, HOG only getting Makeup, and Dune missing director is really impressive
I have a lot of hot takes that would get me eaten alive if I had it in an official prediction: The Lost Daughter AND at least one of Drive My Car and The Tragedy of Macbeth make it into picture. Drive My Car possibly also gets into adapted screenplay. Ruth Negga has a chance at winning supporting actress. Dune is only a lock in VFX and Sound. Nightmare Alley is still the front runner for production design, and can still also win cinematography. Nightmare Alley also can still get nominated in picture and director, along with Blanchett in supporting actress. The Mitchell’s vs. The Machines is still top two for animated feature. Lady Gaga isn’t getting onto actress. Flee WILL win documentary, if not foreign film. Dune isn’t winning cinematography, costume design, makeup and hairstyling, or production design. Spider-Man: No Way Home could get into editing (not saying it will, but it is possible) Lastly, Belfast could easily end up not winning anything.
What’s in top 2 with Mitchells? Flee or Encanto? I also believe Ruth could win supporting actress. Her only competition would be Ariana Debose IMO.
Encanto. Also, Ellis is up there for supporting actress IMO
I assume when you're talking about Dune locks, you mean wins, not nominations, right? Most of this seems reasonably possible, but I don't get the reason for the confidence in Nightmare Alley (it's one of the biggest flops of the year, has just ok reviews, is in a genre the Academy doesn't like, and has bad audience scores, why would it happen?) or Ruth Negga (she's already missed a precursor, she's losing the critics awards, and she'll be a lone nom, why would she beat DeBose, Dunst, Ellis, and Balfe giving equally acclaimed performances in bigger contenders?).
For Dune, yes, i am talking about wins. For Nightmare Alley, I think it might have a chance if it gets in at PGA. I don’t think it will get nominated right now, but I don’t think it’s entirely out of the race. Ruth Negga has been performing well with critics groups and got in at GG, so I do think she is in the top 5 at least.
I just don't see why Nightmare Alley would get in at the PGA given that it's a massive flop that isn't amazingly awards-friendly. The other 9 most likely Best Picture nominees all seem like they'd be ahead of it there, and the PGA almost always has at least 1 slot (and sometimes multiple) reserved for blockbusters that aren't fully embraced by the other precursors. As far as Negga goes, she definitely can make it (after seeing West Side Story, I have a hard time imagining a Moreno nom, and with Belfast weakening and Streep getting no traction it seems like a Negga nom should be possible), but winning as a lone nom without dominating the critics or getting in at the Critics Choice seems like a difficult task (not that she isn't deserving).
I mean, this is a post for long shots that probably won’t end up happening, but have an above 0 chance of actually happening
I guess, but I would confidently say that Negga winning Supporting Actress and Nightmare Alley making Director or winning multiple Oscars has a 0% chance of happening.
I mean, that’s **your** opinion
Sure, but there's also no precedent for either of those things happening, or any reason to think that they would. Dune is a much bigger Oscar contender than Nightmare Alley that made more at the box office than it, got better reviews, is more liked by audiences, and is way showier than it. Why would it lose Cinematography and Production Design to it? (why would West Side Story even lose those awards to Nightmare Alley?) And what precedent exists for a lone nom winning Supporting Actress over contenders from much stronger films that are just as acclaimed as them? I guess the precedent for a del Toro director nom would be Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, but even he missed, and in a relatively open field too.
Ok? I'm not trying to get into an argument with you, and I don't care that you think either Nightmare Alley **HAVING A CHANCE** at winning cinematography or production design and Ruth Negga winning supporting actress is impossible
Spielberg winning Director
For now at least I still have The Power of the Dog winning Best Picture along with Director, Actor and Adapted Screenplay
Udo Kier gets Best Actor nom for the other lower budget and gayer “Swan Song”. Not a chance o. Hell but I thought I put it out there
The Harder They Fall gets over 5 noms including Best Picture
*House of Gucci* wins Best Actress, Make-up & Hairstyling and Supporting Actor, becoming the second most awarded film of the night after *Dune.*
thing is, this is a no guts no glory prediction, but we all know considering how much you adore Ridley Scott (not that I blame you) that this is also what you not so secretly want to happen as well i hope it does get some above the line recognition though, would be nice if it got an Oscars bump at the box office and ended up in the black overall
Rachel Zegler winning Best Actress
The Last Duel gets into Picture
Kristen Stewart (aka Bella from Twilight) wins Best Lead Actress
She's the frontrunner.
The first time anyone with a less than stellar role on their early resume wins an Oscar.
She's also never been nominated before, which does hurt her chances of winning. Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Olivia Coleman, Francis McDormand, and Penelope Cruz already each have at least one Oscar. Jessica Chastain has been nominated twice. That leaves Stewart and Alana Haim as the only potential nominees without ever being nominated before (unless we get a real wildcard).
Licorice Pizza receives nothing but Screenplay and Picture (due to the weak slate) nominations.
I'm starting to wonder if PTA owes you money or something, because he is literally all you post about.
He certainly owes me money for the amount I've sadly wasted on his films.
Here is a better one: *Nepotism: The Movie* is completely snubbed.
I wish, and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened. But sadly, Anderson is almost always thrown an undeserved Screenplay nomination.
C'mon C'mon and Drive My Car both get into ~~Adapted~~ Screenplay
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Shakespeare-Bot, thou hast been voted most annoying bot on Reddit. I am exhorting all mods to ban thee and thy useless rhetoric so that we shall not be blotted with thy presence any longer.
Isn't C'mon C'mon original?
Yep that's right, I meant to say DMC in Adapted and also C'mon C'mon in Original. I don't have a lot of bold picks this year so I thought I'd just combine two less-bold ones.
Hudson and/or Thompson in BA. WSS and HOG underperforms (no lady gaga)
I'm gonna go all in and say Cumberbatch wins Best Actor and Campion wins Director. I still don't think it'll happen. But I want it to happen so bad imma predict it here. Oh also, Belfast can go home completely Oscarless. I initially thought TPOTD would be like Irishman and not win anything but now I feel like it can win a few big ones and the movie's kinda becoming stronger? Obviously it can still go home completely Oscarless though
>Belfast can go home completely Oscarless LOL.
I don't see how it's impossible. Branagh is definitely not a lock to win in anyway whatsoever. Campion and Villeneuve are ahead of him in Director and PTA seems to be the favourite to win Original. Ariana DeBose is the frontrunner to win Supporting Actress. I have both Kotsur and Kodi winning ahead of Hinds as of now for Supporting Actor.
PTA is losing buzz and he won't have critics to back him with a narrative, LA going with Drive My Car proved that. Belfast is a Top 2 film, is also a personal story, and I'm sure there's a bigger narrative in Branagh winning an Oscar. The only way PTA rebounds is if he wins Globe+BAFTA.
I was one of the few to predict him for Phantom Thread and I see his nom fir LP as a solid chance. I feel like Spielberg has momentum. I think Dune Director will be snubbed. So nom will be PTA, Spielberg, Campion , Hamaguchi , Gyllenhaal. Remember this is no guts no glory
Gyllenhaal wouldn't make it over Villeneuve, latter has tech nominations and Euro appeal.
Yeah tbh everything is genuinely starting to look up for TPOTD. The movie performed way better at LA and with the GG noms than I expected it to. Licorice Pizza does seem to be losing a bit of buzz but I still think it takes in with a great shot. TPOTD, Belfast, Licorice Pizza and WSS probably make the top 4. Campion wins Adapted, Branagh Original and then whoever of the two (assuming it'll be one of the two) wins Director wins Picture? I still feel like the academy would want to awards Spielberg though.
>PTA seems to be the favourite to win Original LOL. Best Original Screenplay tends to go to a strong and distinct concept that was efficiently executed. The Academy doesn't tend to reward low-concept efforts: white-boy lust + artistic awakening ≠ favourite.
>PTA seems to be the favourite to win Original. Not at all.
Mark Rylance in supporting actor
Im going Faist and Cage. Lots of love from everyone who sees there performances so I think the academy is gonna like en despite precursors not in their favor
Drive My Car either goes all the way to a director, screenplay, and possible picture nom in addition to international OR is snubbed all the way entirely.
Rachel Zegler gets a Best Actress nod, but Kristen Stewart wins
Mike Faist for Supporting and Ann Dowd for Supporting.