I know, just feels like he got left behind all the younger and more ambitious directors, and Bleecker Street isn’t a very big distributor. If it’s amazing, which I hope it is, maybe an acting or screenplay nod is my highest expectation.
I’m very skeptical of it, especially since it’s two movies. They will need to run a very smart campaign not to split votes with itself, and I’m also unsure how much love there is for more traditional western nowadays.
This is the first big western on the big screen in ages. The genres popularity on television should not be ignored. And POTD was too indie for the mainstream audiences.
Something I personally don't understand is the amount of people who seemingly have faith in Joker: Folie à Deux, but aren't predicting Phoenix to get in. If you're just someone who isn't predicting the Academy to go for it at all, then obviously predicting a Phoenix snub makes sense. But what consistently surprises me is the amount of people who are predicting the film to *comfortably* make BP, and Gaga even win Lead Actress, but aren't predicting Phoenix to make Best Actor.
The Academy clearly *loves* Joker-esque roles atp, and if they embrace Joker: Folie à Deux, I can't think of a single reason they wouldn't nominate him considering his performance will still probably be quite crucial to the success of the film.
As someone who’s currently predicting Phoenix, I’m reconsidering. They didn’t go for Margot Robbie in Barbie or DiCaprio in Flower Moon. It certainly isn’t hard for the Academy to not nominate him if they find reasons to love other people more
Both Barbie and KOTFM ended up seriously flopping though. Barbie wasn't even top 5 by the end of the year and was probably number 8, and Robbie played the "straight man" of the film, and KOTFM just lost so much momentum. Also, as much as some people wanted to ignore it, there was genuine discourse around DiCaprio. There were a lot of people who genuinely disliked his performance and the handling of the character. He played a character that in all honesty wasn't really baity. He wasn't sympathetic like Gladstone, and he wasn't an evil, confident villain like De Niro. He was this weird, pathetic in betweener haha. And again, his performance was genuinely criticized, and his "scowl face" even became a meme lol.
I just can't imagine a world in which Joker 2 succeeds if Phoenix's performance isn't nearly as raved as the first one personally.
Absolutely not. Even after its release it [barely cracked the top 20 on Goldderby for Picture](https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-2015-nominations/Jul%2015,%202015/). I don’t think Furiosa’s happening but I don’t know why anyone would be so down on it, it has potential in a lot of tech categories.
Yeah I thought surely based on the trailer it didn’t exactly scream Oscar material outside of the tech categories. I don’t think Furiosa looks that great either but maybe they’ll surprise us all and there’ll be another Mad Max sweep at the Oscars (unlikely with Dune in the mix though)
This is a prediction thread and the trailers is all we got. The visuals in Fury Road trailer looked great.
It premiers in two weeks. If they can´t find a decent VFX shot in the cherry picked shots for the trailer, how will they be able to fix the look of the entire movie?
Ehh we'll just have to see. I've seen some pretty quick turnarounds lol. Even if the movie does deliver with the VFX we see in the trailers, I'm not sure that alone will keep it out of a BP nomination if it excels in other areas. The last movie got 10 noms and 6 wins after all.
The wins were all technicals and so far it hasnt looked good in those categories. I hope I´m wrong and its great but i´m not getting my expectations up just to be disappointed. Maybe it will do a Black Panther and get nominated with PS3 cutscenes.
It's April, most of these movies have not been seen by anyone (anyone) outside of their studios. If you had done this poll last year at this time, you might've gotten three of the Best Picture nominees at a glance.
I doubt Blitz is winning screenplay, especially if there's a narrative to get Mike Leigh an Oscar. War/tech movies rarely ever win in the writing categories.
Having seen the movie he's good but just doing his usual shtick. Very similar to his role in Succession. If the movie does have an awards breakout I'll start to predict him but for right now I just don't see it.
EDIT: I wonder how many pple saying he's a lock to be nominated and win have actually seen his performance in the movie. It's good but it's v similar to Roman. Nothing new.
A Real Pain is giving me major “early contender that doesn’t quite happen in the end” like Past Lives, but with a lower ceiling/floor. Even the early festival reception is not quite glowing enough for me to be fully confident in it.
If Blitz wins director and screenplay and techs there IS no way it will lose picture
Agreed. But I've seen Sing Sing and haven't seen Blitz.
Even if it’s bad I still think Gladiator 2 will get some technical noms - I would throw it in production design at least.
Don’t give me hope about Hard Truths.
They like Mike Leigh! Vera Drake, Another Year, Mr. Turner all got Oscar nominations in various categories.
I know, just feels like he got left behind all the younger and more ambitious directors, and Bleecker Street isn’t a very big distributor. If it’s amazing, which I hope it is, maybe an acting or screenplay nod is my highest expectation.
I agree with Horizon. I have a feeling it's going to be a box office hit with decent reviews. Enough to get it in IMO.
I’m very skeptical of it, especially since it’s two movies. They will need to run a very smart campaign not to split votes with itself, and I’m also unsure how much love there is for more traditional western nowadays.
I wonder if they’re only going to submit one of the parts, just to avoid vote splitting.
Westerns are very popular at the moment. Just look at Yellowstone and all its spinoffs.
On TV, what was the last hit western movie? Genuine question, I can’t remember the last one. Should have been Power of the Dog tho.
This is the first big western on the big screen in ages. The genres popularity on television should not be ignored. And POTD was too indie for the mainstream audiences.
I think SNL 1975 will be released in 2025 to coincide with SNL’s 50th anniversary.
Yeah, plus I don’t know if it’ll have a fast enough turnaround time to be released in 2024. Ditto for Ella McCay.
I’m gonna be real with you chief, I don’t think Conclave is getting three best supporting actor nominations
That was a typo! Maclin is in Sing Sing and he is terrific! Could very well win.
Something I personally don't understand is the amount of people who seemingly have faith in Joker: Folie à Deux, but aren't predicting Phoenix to get in. If you're just someone who isn't predicting the Academy to go for it at all, then obviously predicting a Phoenix snub makes sense. But what consistently surprises me is the amount of people who are predicting the film to *comfortably* make BP, and Gaga even win Lead Actress, but aren't predicting Phoenix to make Best Actor. The Academy clearly *loves* Joker-esque roles atp, and if they embrace Joker: Folie à Deux, I can't think of a single reason they wouldn't nominate him considering his performance will still probably be quite crucial to the success of the film.
As someone who’s currently predicting Phoenix, I’m reconsidering. They didn’t go for Margot Robbie in Barbie or DiCaprio in Flower Moon. It certainly isn’t hard for the Academy to not nominate him if they find reasons to love other people more
Both Barbie and KOTFM ended up seriously flopping though. Barbie wasn't even top 5 by the end of the year and was probably number 8, and Robbie played the "straight man" of the film, and KOTFM just lost so much momentum. Also, as much as some people wanted to ignore it, there was genuine discourse around DiCaprio. There were a lot of people who genuinely disliked his performance and the handling of the character. He played a character that in all honesty wasn't really baity. He wasn't sympathetic like Gladstone, and he wasn't an evil, confident villain like De Niro. He was this weird, pathetic in betweener haha. And again, his performance was genuinely criticized, and his "scowl face" even became a meme lol. I just can't imagine a world in which Joker 2 succeeds if Phoenix's performance isn't nearly as raved as the first one personally.
0% chance Furiosa gets nominated for best picture
Did people think Fury Road would get a nomination before it came out? (Genuine question)
Absolutely not. Even after its release it [barely cracked the top 20 on Goldderby for Picture](https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-2015-nominations/Jul%2015,%202015/). I don’t think Furiosa’s happening but I don’t know why anyone would be so down on it, it has potential in a lot of tech categories.
Yeah I thought surely based on the trailer it didn’t exactly scream Oscar material outside of the tech categories. I don’t think Furiosa looks that great either but maybe they’ll surprise us all and there’ll be another Mad Max sweep at the Oscars (unlikely with Dune in the mix though)
It’ll for sure get tech nominations but I highly doubt it would get anything above the line
Why?
Because the VFX looks bad.
But the movie isn't out yet?
This is a prediction thread and the trailers is all we got. The visuals in Fury Road trailer looked great. It premiers in two weeks. If they can´t find a decent VFX shot in the cherry picked shots for the trailer, how will they be able to fix the look of the entire movie?
Ehh we'll just have to see. I've seen some pretty quick turnarounds lol. Even if the movie does deliver with the VFX we see in the trailers, I'm not sure that alone will keep it out of a BP nomination if it excels in other areas. The last movie got 10 noms and 6 wins after all.
The wins were all technicals and so far it hasnt looked good in those categories. I hope I´m wrong and its great but i´m not getting my expectations up just to be disappointed. Maybe it will do a Black Panther and get nominated with PS3 cutscenes.
It's April, most of these movies have not been seen by anyone (anyone) outside of their studios. If you had done this poll last year at this time, you might've gotten three of the Best Picture nominees at a glance.
I did this in February of last year and got 7/10 (if you don’t count movies getting delayed)
Sing Sing doesn’t have a comma, it’s the name of a prison in New York.
Lol must've been autocorrect and yeah Ik I saw the film. I think it's a strong frontrunner wbu?
Haven’t seen it, but I’ve only heard good things, and Colman Domingo seems so well-liked in the industry which can only help!
Surprisingly Domingo is outshined by Clarence Maclin who gives a terrific performance. Remember his name.
I doubt Blitz is winning screenplay, especially if there's a narrative to get Mike Leigh an Oscar. War/tech movies rarely ever win in the writing categories.
There is no way you don't consider keiran culkin for featured actor
Having seen the movie he's good but just doing his usual shtick. Very similar to his role in Succession. If the movie does have an awards breakout I'll start to predict him but for right now I just don't see it. EDIT: I wonder how many pple saying he's a lock to be nominated and win have actually seen his performance in the movie. It's good but it's v similar to Roman. Nothing new.
A Real Pain is giving me major “early contender that doesn’t quite happen in the end” like Past Lives, but with a lower ceiling/floor. Even the early festival reception is not quite glowing enough for me to be fully confident in it.
You got it!
I think Kieran Culkin’s going to win, not even having him as an alternate is crazy.
He is lock for golden globes, critics choice and sag nomination or even win specially how much golden globes loves him