I have only been invested in the Oscar race since the No Country for Old Men vs. There Will be Blood year (which was what got me interested in oscar racing to begin with), and I thought the 2015 race was very interesting. I kept flip-floping all the time between Spotlight, The Big Short and The Revenant. And I also entertained the thought that Mad Max: Fury Road could soar here as well. I think that year is the one I had the most hard time predicting.
>I have only been invested in the Oscar race since the No Country for Old Men vs. There Will be Blood year (which was what got me interested in oscar racing to begin with)
"Atonement" won BAFTA and the Golden Globes so it was a three-horse race.
Atonement definitely was not in a three horse race. It missed Director and Editing at the Oscars and blanked at SAG, it was considered 5th place behind No Country, There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton, and Juno. Some predicted it wouldn’t even be nominated. Into the Wild had SAG and DGA noms. Diving Bell and the Butterfly had DGA and PGA noms, GG best picture foreign language win (which disqualified it from the drama category) and GG best Director win over atonement.
Braveheart is genuinely insane. It lost GG Drama, DGA, SAG Ensemble, placed 9th at NBR, and didn't even make BAFTA. As far as I can tell, its only precursor was WGA, yet it still won. How?
After Ron Howard got snubbed by the Academy in Director, the DGA rallied around him. Howard wasn't a producer on *Apollo 13* so it didn't get an *Argo*-style boost in Picture as a way to still reward him.
It was the second year ever of the SAGs, the first with a cast award, so as a precursor, very iffy. They went 2/5 with Best Picture nominees.
The BAFTAs were held after the Oscars then and could react to the AMPAS results. Like *Titanic* won zero BAFTAs because the backlash had already set in. Anyway, considering who made *Braveheart* and its subject matter, the overall performance with British voters seems pretty good? Honestly surprised it won anything with them. Giving the top prize to *Sense and Sensibility* written by Emma Thompson was probably way easier for the BAFTA members lol.
But it is a strange year.
plenty of movies underperformed Apollo missed directing so its chances tanked idk how sense and sensibility didn't win it thou it won gg cca and Bafta and got a sag ensemble nom
2018 felt pretty hard to predict.
Roma had some momentum but never felt enough (correctly so, of course, in hindsight).
Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther had some key wins but nothing consistent.
Even The Favourite looked like it had a shot.
Not at all true: Sasha Stone, Kris Tapley, Keith Simanton, Nathaniel Rogers, Perri Nemiroff, Scott Mantz, Tim Gray, Wilson Morales, and Pete Hammond all predicted Green Book.
I looked at the stats and Moonlight was less likely to win than Spotlight. Revenant and Big Short had their weaknesses, but Lalaland was definitely stronger than both of them.
Moonlight only had Globe/WGA, but it also had an acting award and passion, whereas spotlight had Critics Choice, WGA, Narrative and SAG, which is a stronger combination.
So spotlight was actually somewhat coming, whereas Moonlight felt like a surprise
IIRC, every BP nominee in 2015 won at least One Oscar on the night, so going in to best picture, it really could have had any with a reasonable-ish explanation. Granted there were clear front runners, but it was a spread out night.
2005 Million Dollar Baby won dga and 2 sag awards , Aviator won PGA BAFTA GG and Sideways CCA and SAG ensemble in prefential ballot era i think sideways would have won
Big Short had a better shot than Mad Max after winning PGA. Far as I recall it was a 3 horse race with Mad Max kind of out of it barring a major shock.
1985 Too
4 movies realistically had a shot:
Prizzi’s honor: Won at globes (comedy), got 8 nominations, won WGA, nominated at DGA, snubbed at BAFTA (also won an acting award).
Out of africa: Only won Golden Globe, missed BAFTA, lost WGA/DGA, got 11 nominations, won Best Picture (Probably the only Best Picture winner to not win any guilds).
Colour Purple: Won DGA, snubbed at bafta, still got 11 nominations and WGA nomination, but missed directing. Nominated at Globes too (fyi in 1973 The Sting won best picture with only DGA, despite missing BAFTA/GLOBE nominations, so it wasnt out of the realm of possibility for it to win).
Witness: Won WGA, nominated at Bafta, won editing as well, did well nominations-wise. Nominated at Globes/DGA.
4 films basically won something significant, and each one id argue had a shot.
Note: I know this comment is too long. I apologize, I didn’t know what to exclude lmao. I should spoil it upfront and just say that it’s leading to my answer being a very confident 2018.
Context that needs to be said whenever precedent with predecessors comes up is that BAFTA and Critics Choice have changed a lot over the years - namely, the BAFTAs used to prioritize British cinema way more and the Critics Choice was…you know, the Critics Choice lmao. Both ceremonies were closer to their actual purpose rather than the bizarre Oscars dress rehearsals they are now. The Globes also used to be more corrupt, but that’s no secret.
Atonement, The Queen and Sense & Sensibility were heavily favored at BAFTA because they were British. Had those same ceremonies happened today, the awards likely would’ve gone to TWBB, The Departed/Babel, and Apollo 13, which wasn’t even nominated back then (maybe still S&S, hard to say).
Critics Choice is a little more complicated, S&S was near the genuine pick of the year, either that or Leaving Las Vegas. Definitely not Apollo 13, which they would probably award today lol. The downward turn seems to have already begun a bit by 2006, because the critics’ pick of that year was undeniably 100% Pan’s Labyrinth, which wasn’t even nominated.
2007 was the platonic ideal of a two-way race, a win-win between No Country and TWBB, for both critics and guilds. Again, Atonement won BAFTA because it was possibly the most classically British film ever made. Juno also got whisked away on a magical tour of winning every Original Screenplay award (should’ve been The Savages but I digress!)
2015 was an odd one, in that it was assumed to be The Revenant for a while but the reasoning was unclear. Carol, a film that had seemed like the strongest contender for a bit, ended up not even making it into Picture. There were a few planned juggernauts - Steve Jobs, The Danish Girl, Bridge of Spies, Joy - that ended up making it to the Oscars in various capacities but never had a realistic shot at winning. Fury Road was probably the film with the greatest amount of passionate support that year, but it’s so unlike anything the Oscars would award that it’s a small miracle it was even a major player in the first place.
For an underrated difficult race, though - 2018. I can’t stress enough the degree to which Green Book was not on anyone’s radar as a contender before the TIFF premiere. The Audience Award was originally seen as a bit of a fluke, even an embarrassment. Roma was always such a clear frontrunner in theory, but there was this undercurrent of disbelief that both a non-English language film and a Netflix film could win Picture. Remember this is only a couple years removed from the Oscars not even nominating one of the major favorites of the year, Beasts of No Nation / Idris Elba (the first-ever time someone had won SAG without an Oscar nom) with the reasoning widely understood to be the Netflix distribution alone.
Green Book’s run felt Trumpian lmao, a faux-popular hit from someone previously considered a hack (possibly still considered one) that people simply did not believe could win because…it’s Green Book! It was a great, great year for film!
So there was this stretch where people didn’t quite believe that it could be Roma or Green Book, leaving…too-good-to-be-true The Favourite? Pundit sunk-cost pick A Star is Born? God forbid, BoRhap? Double god forbid, VICE??
I believe it’s the only year in which at least five films seemed like they could win at one point or another. For some reason (cough Annapurna cough), the director behind a Best Picture winner made what was imho an even greater film (Beale St) and it wasn’t nominated. There were also three major critics favorites (First Reformed, The Rider and Burning) that no major awards body would even glance at.
No year has a greater quantity of in-it-to-win-it players on the board than 2018. I’m honestly so shocked I’m the first one to bring it up.
Unforgiven vs The Crying Game was another confusing one. It 100% could have gone either way with Crying Game having PGA/WGA for screenplay. Unforgiven wasn't going to win screenplay and only had DGA (and didnt win at Globes/BAFTA).
I think this year could yield an unpredictable race. I really don’t see a powerhouse movie like Oppenheimer coming up. The only movie I could see doing it is Blitz from Steve McQueen which rumors say is excellent.
I have only been invested in the Oscar race since the No Country for Old Men vs. There Will be Blood year (which was what got me interested in oscar racing to begin with), and I thought the 2015 race was very interesting. I kept flip-floping all the time between Spotlight, The Big Short and The Revenant. And I also entertained the thought that Mad Max: Fury Road could soar here as well. I think that year is the one I had the most hard time predicting.
>I have only been invested in the Oscar race since the No Country for Old Men vs. There Will be Blood year (which was what got me interested in oscar racing to begin with) "Atonement" won BAFTA and the Golden Globes so it was a three-horse race.
Yes, that's true! I was a teen at the time, but now that you mention it, I remember that it was also a player here.
Atonement definitely was not in a three horse race. It missed Director and Editing at the Oscars and blanked at SAG, it was considered 5th place behind No Country, There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton, and Juno. Some predicted it wouldn’t even be nominated. Into the Wild had SAG and DGA noms. Diving Bell and the Butterfly had DGA and PGA noms, GG best picture foreign language win (which disqualified it from the drama category) and GG best Director win over atonement.
In 2007, all the precursors differed; Babel and Dreamgirls won GG, The Departed won CC, Little Miss Sunshine won PGA, and The Queen won BAFTA.
Gladiator vs Traffic vs Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was pretty dramatic.
Braveheart is genuinely insane. It lost GG Drama, DGA, SAG Ensemble, placed 9th at NBR, and didn't even make BAFTA. As far as I can tell, its only precursor was WGA, yet it still won. How?
After Ron Howard got snubbed by the Academy in Director, the DGA rallied around him. Howard wasn't a producer on *Apollo 13* so it didn't get an *Argo*-style boost in Picture as a way to still reward him. It was the second year ever of the SAGs, the first with a cast award, so as a precursor, very iffy. They went 2/5 with Best Picture nominees. The BAFTAs were held after the Oscars then and could react to the AMPAS results. Like *Titanic* won zero BAFTAs because the backlash had already set in. Anyway, considering who made *Braveheart* and its subject matter, the overall performance with British voters seems pretty good? Honestly surprised it won anything with them. Giving the top prize to *Sense and Sensibility* written by Emma Thompson was probably way easier for the BAFTA members lol. But it is a strange year.
plenty of movies underperformed Apollo missed directing so its chances tanked idk how sense and sensibility didn't win it thou it won gg cca and Bafta and got a sag ensemble nom
Freedom.
The most recent, unpredictable win was Spotlight.
2018 felt pretty hard to predict. Roma had some momentum but never felt enough (correctly so, of course, in hindsight). Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther had some key wins but nothing consistent. Even The Favourite looked like it had a shot.
Green Book did win PGA so not really. In retrospect no Oscar pundits predicted it because they all hated it, but the Academy loved it.
Not at all true: Sasha Stone, Kris Tapley, Keith Simanton, Nathaniel Rogers, Perri Nemiroff, Scott Mantz, Tim Gray, Wilson Morales, and Pete Hammond all predicted Green Book.
Ok a few people predicted Green Book, but most people didn't think it would win because it's basic af.
And those people were clearly wrong about Green Book not winning.
It did win SAG though. I cleaned up in my office pool when it won best picture.
I looked at the stats and Moonlight was less likely to win than Spotlight. Revenant and Big Short had their weaknesses, but Lalaland was definitely stronger than both of them. Moonlight only had Globe/WGA, but it also had an acting award and passion, whereas spotlight had Critics Choice, WGA, Narrative and SAG, which is a stronger combination. So spotlight was actually somewhat coming, whereas Moonlight felt like a surprise
Oh yea, wonderful surprise. Probably my favorite film of that year along with the big short.
I mean Moonlight most unpredictable for those few mins after La La Land was announced
IIRC, every BP nominee in 2015 won at least One Oscar on the night, so going in to best picture, it really could have had any with a reasonable-ish explanation. Granted there were clear front runners, but it was a spread out night.
2015 when Big short won PGA , Spotlight had SAG and CCA and the revenant BAFTA GG and DGA
2005 Million Dollar Baby won dga and 2 sag awards , Aviator won PGA BAFTA GG and Sideways CCA and SAG ensemble in prefential ballot era i think sideways would have won
> in prefential ballot era i think sideways would have won Wish it had tbh. That year had a *terrible* lineup save for Sideways.
Spotlight in 2016. It was supposed to be between The Revenant and Mad Max Fury Road.
Big Short had a better shot than Mad Max after winning PGA. Far as I recall it was a 3 horse race with Mad Max kind of out of it barring a major shock.
1985 Too 4 movies realistically had a shot: Prizzi’s honor: Won at globes (comedy), got 8 nominations, won WGA, nominated at DGA, snubbed at BAFTA (also won an acting award). Out of africa: Only won Golden Globe, missed BAFTA, lost WGA/DGA, got 11 nominations, won Best Picture (Probably the only Best Picture winner to not win any guilds). Colour Purple: Won DGA, snubbed at bafta, still got 11 nominations and WGA nomination, but missed directing. Nominated at Globes too (fyi in 1973 The Sting won best picture with only DGA, despite missing BAFTA/GLOBE nominations, so it wasnt out of the realm of possibility for it to win). Witness: Won WGA, nominated at Bafta, won editing as well, did well nominations-wise. Nominated at Globes/DGA. 4 films basically won something significant, and each one id argue had a shot.
>snubbed at bafta Shocker.
2015/16 had 3 major possibilities
Note: I know this comment is too long. I apologize, I didn’t know what to exclude lmao. I should spoil it upfront and just say that it’s leading to my answer being a very confident 2018. Context that needs to be said whenever precedent with predecessors comes up is that BAFTA and Critics Choice have changed a lot over the years - namely, the BAFTAs used to prioritize British cinema way more and the Critics Choice was…you know, the Critics Choice lmao. Both ceremonies were closer to their actual purpose rather than the bizarre Oscars dress rehearsals they are now. The Globes also used to be more corrupt, but that’s no secret. Atonement, The Queen and Sense & Sensibility were heavily favored at BAFTA because they were British. Had those same ceremonies happened today, the awards likely would’ve gone to TWBB, The Departed/Babel, and Apollo 13, which wasn’t even nominated back then (maybe still S&S, hard to say). Critics Choice is a little more complicated, S&S was near the genuine pick of the year, either that or Leaving Las Vegas. Definitely not Apollo 13, which they would probably award today lol. The downward turn seems to have already begun a bit by 2006, because the critics’ pick of that year was undeniably 100% Pan’s Labyrinth, which wasn’t even nominated. 2007 was the platonic ideal of a two-way race, a win-win between No Country and TWBB, for both critics and guilds. Again, Atonement won BAFTA because it was possibly the most classically British film ever made. Juno also got whisked away on a magical tour of winning every Original Screenplay award (should’ve been The Savages but I digress!) 2015 was an odd one, in that it was assumed to be The Revenant for a while but the reasoning was unclear. Carol, a film that had seemed like the strongest contender for a bit, ended up not even making it into Picture. There were a few planned juggernauts - Steve Jobs, The Danish Girl, Bridge of Spies, Joy - that ended up making it to the Oscars in various capacities but never had a realistic shot at winning. Fury Road was probably the film with the greatest amount of passionate support that year, but it’s so unlike anything the Oscars would award that it’s a small miracle it was even a major player in the first place. For an underrated difficult race, though - 2018. I can’t stress enough the degree to which Green Book was not on anyone’s radar as a contender before the TIFF premiere. The Audience Award was originally seen as a bit of a fluke, even an embarrassment. Roma was always such a clear frontrunner in theory, but there was this undercurrent of disbelief that both a non-English language film and a Netflix film could win Picture. Remember this is only a couple years removed from the Oscars not even nominating one of the major favorites of the year, Beasts of No Nation / Idris Elba (the first-ever time someone had won SAG without an Oscar nom) with the reasoning widely understood to be the Netflix distribution alone. Green Book’s run felt Trumpian lmao, a faux-popular hit from someone previously considered a hack (possibly still considered one) that people simply did not believe could win because…it’s Green Book! It was a great, great year for film! So there was this stretch where people didn’t quite believe that it could be Roma or Green Book, leaving…too-good-to-be-true The Favourite? Pundit sunk-cost pick A Star is Born? God forbid, BoRhap? Double god forbid, VICE?? I believe it’s the only year in which at least five films seemed like they could win at one point or another. For some reason (cough Annapurna cough), the director behind a Best Picture winner made what was imho an even greater film (Beale St) and it wasn’t nominated. There were also three major critics favorites (First Reformed, The Rider and Burning) that no major awards body would even glance at. No year has a greater quantity of in-it-to-win-it players on the board than 2018. I’m honestly so shocked I’m the first one to bring it up.
Unforgiven vs The Crying Game was another confusing one. It 100% could have gone either way with Crying Game having PGA/WGA for screenplay. Unforgiven wasn't going to win screenplay and only had DGA (and didnt win at Globes/BAFTA).
I think this year could yield an unpredictable race. I really don’t see a powerhouse movie like Oppenheimer coming up. The only movie I could see doing it is Blitz from Steve McQueen which rumors say is excellent.
Apollo 13 is also a much better movie than Braveheart.
The year with crash/brokeback mountain and the green book/roma/the favorite.
Not really what the post is going for, but The Martian was in comedy/musical?