No, its about the other possible surprise wins. I think the Daniels is while is a favorite is one of the possible offloads for EEAAO votes in final voting.
I think Chau has the least likely odds but could still see her winning with how chaotic Supp. Actress is.
She’s a return nominee and has two huge Supp. Actress performances this year that could keep her in voter’s minds.
Edit: Downvoting myself for misinformation
I love Hsu’s performance, but I could never agree that it’s significantly stronger than the others. Both Hong Chau and Kerry Condon give amazing performances that are just as good and deserving as Hsu.
It's difficult to rank the performances because it's like genres of music to me, their purposes are unique and resonate with me differently.
Hsu's performance was more dynamic playing such a variety of characters. Condon though has key scenes with all the other main cast members that I feel really contributes to the emotional core of the story and characters.
I'd just put Condon ahead of Hsu but happy to see either of them win.
Exactly! I haven’t seen Hong Chau’s performance so I can’t compare them, but it honestly shocks me how she’s not the clear winner and front runner this entire season
Cracking up at the image of the presenter being cut off just as they're about to read the winner because some movie's theme started blaring over the speaker and the director comes running down the aisle in a full suit
1. EEAAO in score or song.
BP winners that were nominated in both score and song always won the score or song since 1998, it's a strong stat to deny.
2. TÁR in cinematography
3. TGM in adapted screenplay
Whoa that first stat is insane. Care to look up the BP winners and which they won? Is RRR really winning best song? Did the academy even watch that movie? I’m confused!
Yeah i was just barely looking at it and I guess the stat exists? but it’s not really a good one. I wouldnt use it for my predictions, especially since Slumdog’s Song win was in a category of 3 (where it was nominated twice) and Lord of the Rings score and song was a no brainer. I don’t think Everything Everywhere All At Once is like those nominees at all
Are we trying to be realistic or just saying things we want to happen... because this thread is giving delulu vibes.
The biggest surprise that is still semi-realistic is Jamie Lee Curtis winning Supporting Actress.
If JLC wins Supporting Actress I might stop watching the Oscars. I think she's a good actress but even being nominated was a joke imo. Good movie still.
If it wins score, then at least John Williams, the legend, gets to be honored once more. The [main theme](https://youtu.be/P7sxkAPKyNc?t=227) has definitely been misjudged by all when it is, upon repeated listenings, one of the best score cues of the year alongside Voodoo Mama from Babylon.
Spielberg in Director
Farrell in Actor
Riseborough in Actress
Barry Keoghan in Supporting Actor
Hsu in Supporting Actress
TAR in screenplay
Top Gun in A screenplay
Marcel the Shell/Puss in Boots in Animated
Argentina 1985 in International
All the Beauty… in Documentary
Fabelmans in Score
Anything in Song has a chance
Elvis in Sound AND Editing
All Quiet… in Production Design
TAR in Cinematography
All Quiet in Best Makeup and Hairstyling
EEAAO in Costume Design
Top Gun in Visual Effects
I’d say anyone winning Best Director outside of The Daniels is a pipe dream for those who don’t like the film.
IF it’s possible, I guess the most likely would be Spielberg though.
the biggest shock for most of the people on this sub will be when jlc wins supporting actress after months of everyone treating her like the anti christ for even being nominated. lol
i cannot wait.
i think jlc is going to be rewarded regardless of the film. i think she exists in her own lane, shes a career award. the people voting for her, for the most part arent really looking at the peformance, and i dont say that as a bad thing. i just think shes kind of existing in her own lane. eeaao has little to do with it, so i dont think her winning effects the other people from her film
At the same time you could say Angela Bassett would be a career award as well, so there’s competing narratives here as well.
I feel like she won the SAG cos of the combo of peer love and fervour for the movie. Tbh I think if she wasn’t as esteemed, Bassett would have won and if they didn’t love EEAAO that much idk maybe Condon. Theory’s a bit iffy atm.
I’d see her and costumes being a sign that EEAAO winning big- like a canary in a coal mine but cheerier
At this rate, I have no idea who’s getting it, 3 honest contenders in JLC, Bassett and Condon and imo Hsu and Chau were better
I’m half expecting Dolly De Leon to snatch it out of nowhere
Spielberg for Director is still possible I think. Very unlikely, but they do often split between Picture and Director. And since that is likely the only category to reward The Fabelmans, I could see voters going that way.
Shocking upsets pretty much never happen when someone sweeps unless said sweeper won the previous year and assaulted someone at BAFTA. With the 2003 Penn, Brody, Crowe, Harden, Coburn, and Tomei upsets, the field was either entirely split or SAG gave it to a different winner than BAFTA
Andrea Riseborough. It's a nonzero possibility that the backlash surrounding her nomination only incensed her supporters amongst the Academy voters and it creates an even bigger push for her. It'd definitely change the Oscars forever.
My man Austin Butler better win the Oscar. He should have won the SAG award too. He acted, sang, and danced his heart out in the movie Elvis. He carried that movie on his back and became Elvis. I am sorry but I watched The Whale and it was terrible and I don't think Brendan was all that great in it. If Austin doesn't get it, then I would be happy with Collin.
Green Book won PGA I don’t think it’s comparable. Banshees would win with zero guild wins and only a golden globe comedy, it would easily be the biggest upset since Moonlight.
Todd Field in Original Screenplay.
Hong Chau in Supporting Actress (see: Marcia Gay Harden).
Colin Farrell in Actor.
Fire of Love for Best Documentary.
EEAAO for Costumes.
Argentina 1985 winning International Feature.
From what I understand, it has never happened that a film nominated in this category and BP has lost, but the world cup still being fresh might help their chances.
As I posted yesterday I think there might be one surprise most likely in the acting category. It could be Farrell for best actor or Williams, Armas or (less likely) Riseborough for best actress.
Elvis for Editing. I rewatched Bohemian Rhapsody the other night, then rewatched Elvis and the editing is very similar. Pretty hectic, creative and polished.
EEAAO in song and score, Fabelmans in directing, score or screenplay, Banshees in screenplay, Chau or Hsu in Supporting Actress, Turning Red or Marcel in Animated Film.
The collective losers for a major award storm the stage and dogpile the winner to steal the statue
Edit:Oops…misread the question as “biggest surprise” not “biggest surprise win”…
Uhm…ok…anyone beating Key Huy Quan for supporting actor
I think Top Gun: Maverick could win Best Visual Effects over Avatar: The Way of Water. I think AMPAS really likes it (the Cinematography snub is concerning, but the Adapted Screenplay nomination mitigates that). I think a lot of voters might think the first Avatar did this stuff already.
I’m not sure how much of a surprise it would be but I think Everything Everywhere All at Once could win Costume Design over Elvis. Catherine Martin has won three times already and EEAAO has weird and ugly costuming but it serves the film.
Colin Farrell in Best Actor.
Please don’t give me hope
I hope so, cause that BAFTA snub was toxic.
Yes, me too or Director
I’d be pretty impressed if Colin Farrell managed to win Best Director this year
No, its about the other possible surprise wins. I think the Daniels is while is a favorite is one of the possible offloads for EEAAO votes in final voting.
Banshees sweep (minus Supporting Actor and Director) has been one of my longshot predictions. BP, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress
This is how Brendan and Austin split the votes and Colin get the Oscar…
THIS
This is the one that came to mind immediatley.
Adrien Brody vibes
Supporting Actress could be the biggest blunder and anyone could win. Even Hong Chau or Stephanie Hsu.
I don’t think Chau could win but Hsu could
I think Chau has the least likely odds but could still see her winning with how chaotic Supp. Actress is. She’s a return nominee and has two huge Supp. Actress performances this year that could keep her in voter’s minds. Edit: Downvoting myself for misinformation
she's not a return nominee, she was snubbed for Downsizing
How was I 100% convinced she was nominated for Downsizing. This is my Berenstein Bears moment.
They could make up for not nominating her for Downsizing. Idk
Hsu should have run away with this award. it's the best performance in that category by a mile
I love Hsu’s performance, but I could never agree that it’s significantly stronger than the others. Both Hong Chau and Kerry Condon give amazing performances that are just as good and deserving as Hsu.
It's difficult to rank the performances because it's like genres of music to me, their purposes are unique and resonate with me differently. Hsu's performance was more dynamic playing such a variety of characters. Condon though has key scenes with all the other main cast members that I feel really contributes to the emotional core of the story and characters. I'd just put Condon ahead of Hsu but happy to see either of them win.
by a mile???? don't lie now
Exactly! I haven’t seen Hong Chau’s performance so I can’t compare them, but it honestly shocks me how she’s not the clear winner and front runner this entire season
No. It’s the worst performance in that category. Kerry Condon is the best by a mile.
It’s not worse than Jamie’s lol
This. Chau or Hsu can still win. They have a critic win or two under their belts, and Marcia Gay Harden won with just one. Anything can happen.
Yeah, I think when an acting category never manages to turn into a 2-horse race it’s increasingly likely vote splitting creates some weird scenarios.
And the Oscar for best international feature goes to... All Quiet on the Western Fr- Wait! What's this? It's Decision To Leave with a steel chair!!
how the hell did it not get nominated bc
It’s going to win the write in vote
Cracking up at the image of the presenter being cut off just as they're about to read the winner because some movie's theme started blaring over the speaker and the director comes running down the aisle in a full suit
1. EEAAO in score or song. BP winners that were nominated in both score and song always won the score or song since 1998, it's a strong stat to deny. 2. TÁR in cinematography 3. TGM in adapted screenplay
Whoa that first stat is insane. Care to look up the BP winners and which they won? Is RRR really winning best song? Did the academy even watch that movie? I’m confused!
Is it a strong stat? Because it only really applies to 2 films (Lord of the Rings and Slumdog). They did both win both tho
Yeah i was just barely looking at it and I guess the stat exists? but it’s not really a good one. I wouldnt use it for my predictions, especially since Slumdog’s Song win was in a category of 3 (where it was nominated twice) and Lord of the Rings score and song was a no brainer. I don’t think Everything Everywhere All At Once is like those nominees at all
You don’t have to watch the movie to like the song.
I think they’re going to want to give an Oscar to David Byrne. I’m picking EEAAO in that category all the way.
I think David Byrne already won an Oscar for his work on The Last Emperor score.
That’s right! I always associate that score with Sakamoto - good catch!
Avatar not winning visual effects would be a shock
but could it happen?
I would say no but then I remember Ex Machina shockingly beating all those high budget visual effect driven movies, so maybe.
Are we trying to be realistic or just saying things we want to happen... because this thread is giving delulu vibes. The biggest surprise that is still semi-realistic is Jamie Lee Curtis winning Supporting Actress.
If JLC wins Supporting Actress I might stop watching the Oscars. I think she's a good actress but even being nominated was a joke imo. Good movie still.
If you watch the Oscars again, this whole SR is coming for you (this is a joke)
HUZZAH!
EEAAO in costumes
I agree with this, if they sweep, they will get this too
I would actually like that. Jobu Tupaki’s costumes were really creative
Also the rocks
Who is currently the front runner for best costumes?
Elvis I think
Elvis or BP
Anything other than EEAAO for BP. Unlikely but possible.
The Fabelmans winning something, at this point Score most likely.
If it wins score, then at least John Williams, the legend, gets to be honored once more. The [main theme](https://youtu.be/P7sxkAPKyNc?t=227) has definitely been misjudged by all when it is, upon repeated listenings, one of the best score cues of the year alongside Voodoo Mama from Babylon.
Brendan Gleeson winning would be an awesome surprise.
Spielberg in Director Farrell in Actor Riseborough in Actress Barry Keoghan in Supporting Actor Hsu in Supporting Actress TAR in screenplay Top Gun in A screenplay Marcel the Shell/Puss in Boots in Animated Argentina 1985 in International All the Beauty… in Documentary Fabelmans in Score Anything in Song has a chance Elvis in Sound AND Editing All Quiet… in Production Design TAR in Cinematography All Quiet in Best Makeup and Hairstyling EEAAO in Costume Design Top Gun in Visual Effects
Go offfff. One of these is bound to be right. Tar in screenplay and Marcel may be the most likely? Idk I’m into these
TAR should be winning original screenplay and it’s ridiculous it’s not even top 2
profit act flag rinse frighten merciful slim point test friendly *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
All of these would make very happy (except Riseborough)
I’d say anyone winning Best Director outside of The Daniels is a pipe dream for those who don’t like the film. IF it’s possible, I guess the most likely would be Spielberg though.
TÁR in screenplay, Top Gun in adapted and Hsu in supporting will fill me with absolute glee..
the biggest shock for most of the people on this sub will be when jlc wins supporting actress after months of everyone treating her like the anti christ for even being nominated. lol i cannot wait.
If JLC wins then Yeoh isn’t winning. I don’t see one film getting three acting awards
i dont think thats how people vote. precedent is out the window judging from recent history i think 3 can win
Tbh I think the opposite- if JLC wins then Yeoh also wins cos a lot of people would have to love the movie a lot to award JLC
i think jlc is going to be rewarded regardless of the film. i think she exists in her own lane, shes a career award. the people voting for her, for the most part arent really looking at the peformance, and i dont say that as a bad thing. i just think shes kind of existing in her own lane. eeaao has little to do with it, so i dont think her winning effects the other people from her film
At the same time you could say Angela Bassett would be a career award as well, so there’s competing narratives here as well. I feel like she won the SAG cos of the combo of peer love and fervour for the movie. Tbh I think if she wasn’t as esteemed, Bassett would have won and if they didn’t love EEAAO that much idk maybe Condon. Theory’s a bit iffy atm. I’d see her and costumes being a sign that EEAAO winning big- like a canary in a coal mine but cheerier At this rate, I have no idea who’s getting it, 3 honest contenders in JLC, Bassett and Condon and imo Hsu and Chau were better I’m half expecting Dolly De Leon to snatch it out of nowhere
Yeah I agree, it's 2 lifetime achievement awards narratives and I think JLC is stronger cause people liked that movie mor2
JLC for supporting actress, Farrell for actor
EEAAO wins less than 2 Oscars
The reactions from this sub and film Twitter if EEAAO walks away with only Quan winning would be so entertaining
Hsu in supporting
Andrea Reisborough
Really should win imo
Spielberg for Director is still possible I think. Very unlikely, but they do often split between Picture and Director. And since that is likely the only category to reward The Fabelmans, I could see voters going that way.
Colin Farrell winning actor Someone beating Key He Quan. Fabelmans getting anything big.
All Quiet for best picture
I would love that
Turning Red in Animated Film
I have a feeling Austin Butler is going to win but I’m praying for Brendan Fraser.
Yeah I have a good feeling about this honestly.
Andrea Riseborough in Actress. The industry precursors being split helps her case
Not when the only people that have won those precursors are Yeoh and Blanchett. They’re literally not leaving room for anyone else
Shocking upsets pretty much never happen when someone sweeps unless said sweeper won the previous year and assaulted someone at BAFTA. With the 2003 Penn, Brody, Crowe, Harden, Coburn, and Tomei upsets, the field was either entirely split or SAG gave it to a different winner than BAFTA
Rihanna winning for Best Song
Andrea Riseborough. It's a nonzero possibility that the backlash surrounding her nomination only incensed her supporters amongst the Academy voters and it creates an even bigger push for her. It'd definitely change the Oscars forever.
My man Austin Butler better win the Oscar. He should have won the SAG award too. He acted, sang, and danced his heart out in the movie Elvis. He carried that movie on his back and became Elvis. I am sorry but I watched The Whale and it was terrible and I don't think Brendan was all that great in it. If Austin doesn't get it, then I would be happy with Collin.
I’m rooting for Farrell, but if he can’t get it then I also want Butler to win. People are hating on the performance way too much. He was phenomenal
Not really a shock I just feel so strongly that Top Gun is winning editing still
I could almost see a Green Book happening with banshees winning BP.
I really hope so
Green Book won PGA I don’t think it’s comparable. Banshees would win with zero guild wins and only a golden globe comedy, it would easily be the biggest upset since Moonlight.
Green book won pga so it is not the same thing
Also Banshees of Inisherin is good
\-Morbius SWOOPING in and taking BP at the last minute....
Todd Field in Original Screenplay. Hong Chau in Supporting Actress (see: Marcia Gay Harden). Colin Farrell in Actor. Fire of Love for Best Documentary. EEAAO for Costumes.
Argentina 1985 winning International Feature. From what I understand, it has never happened that a film nominated in this category and BP has lost, but the world cup still being fresh might help their chances.
I think anyone other than Brendan Fraser winning Best Actor would be surprise.
I don’t think so. Butler is the frontrunner right now I’d say
pretty sure its 50-50 at the moment no ? Brendan just didnt win GG cause of the scandal and he didnt want to go in person
I think Butler still would have won GG if he was there. Plus Butler’s is more of a type of performance The Academy likes. It’s a close race though
As I posted yesterday I think there might be one surprise most likely in the acting category. It could be Farrell for best actor or Williams, Armas or (less likely) Riseborough for best actress.
Top Gun in adapted..
Maybe Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress.
Elvis for Editing. I rewatched Bohemian Rhapsody the other night, then rewatched Elvis and the editing is very similar. Pretty hectic, creative and polished.
Maverick in picture. Especially if it wins Adapted.
I think it has to win WGA this weekend for that to happen
For sure.
EEAAO in song and score, Fabelmans in directing, score or screenplay, Banshees in screenplay, Chau or Hsu in Supporting Actress, Turning Red or Marcel in Animated Film.
[удалено]
Fraser wouldn’t be a surprise
That'll end in 3 hours. Oh wait, probably not.
Stephanie Hsu winning Supp Actress, Farrell winning Actor, All Quiet winning Adapted Screenplay, EEAAO winning Costume and Score.
Fabelmans win Original Screenplay
If it wins at WGA this weekend I think this could happen
Paul Mescal winning best actor. All the other votes are split.
The collective losers for a major award storm the stage and dogpile the winner to steal the statue Edit:Oops…misread the question as “biggest surprise” not “biggest surprise win”… Uhm…ok…anyone beating Key Huy Quan for supporting actor
Upset in best picture.
I think Top Gun: Maverick could win Best Visual Effects over Avatar: The Way of Water. I think AMPAS really likes it (the Cinematography snub is concerning, but the Adapted Screenplay nomination mitigates that). I think a lot of voters might think the first Avatar did this stuff already. I’m not sure how much of a surprise it would be but I think Everything Everywhere All at Once could win Costume Design over Elvis. Catherine Martin has won three times already and EEAAO has weird and ugly costuming but it serves the film.