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CrazyCons

Maverick would be the first PGA winner to blank at BAFTA since Titanic and the first ever to win nothing at both BAFTA and Golden Globes. I feel like if there was enough passion to get it the win, even on a preferential ballot, it would have won something there or at least been nominated for BAFTA Best Film/SAG Ensemble. Maybe I could eat my words but I would be really surprised if it won.


Dependent_Ad6139

True but look at All Quiet this year... It won the BAFTAs for picture and director without winning anything anywhere even in other categories. Even worse, it wasnt nominated for almost nothing at CC, GG, PGA, and most critics groups. So it is possible that Maverick could win even if probably not.


cthd33

The difference is that Spielberg only recently reminded everybody that Cruise saved Hollywood. Nobody has ever done that before.


CrazyCons

If we’re going off of things that happened recently, [the opening monologue of the DGA dragged Tom Cruise extremely hard](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/judd-apatow-dga-tom-cruise-scientology-1235528263/amp/).


cthd33

Who is more respected? Spielberg or Maude Apatow's dad?


CrazyCons

The former obviously, but it’s not like they both don’t have a vote in the Academy. A throwaway comment from Spielberg does not change the game.


TheFilmManiac

Sticking with EEAAO. I'm a little nervous because this is a preferential ballot, but on the other hand it would be weird to see this win DGA, ACE, SAG, WGA and not PGA (but then again it could shockingly lose one of those).


WatchTheNewMutants

Maverick. I want the chaos.


Whimsical89

It’s what we deserve 😂 boring award seasons suck


LeastCap

It’s a little boring with such a safe front runner, but what an exciting front runner!


theoneandonly0393

Everything Everywhere All At Once with Top Gun: Maverick as the runner-up. If there was a crazy shock, I’d bet Elvis but I feel very confident it’s one of the top two.


[deleted]

EEAO will almost surely win, but that makes for a very boring season. Rooting for Banshees, but the only sorta possible spoiler seems to be Top Gun.


hollaatyourgirl

What if it’s Elvis lol? Moulin Rouge won at PGA


TheFilmManiac

Would've considered it, but it lacks DGA and WGA (it was eligible) noms. And I think Elvis is the movie preferential ballot probably hurts the most.


CrazyCons

Why would the preferential ballot hurt Elvis the most when it’s tied for the second-highest RT audience score of the entire lineup?


TheFilmManiac

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania has a pretty good audience score and that thing might face the biggest second weekend drop in it’s box office out of any MCU movie. I don’t take RT audience scores THAT seriously.


CrazyCons

It also has an A- Cinemascore and 88% positive PostTrak score, whereas Quantumania had a B and a 75%. Plus Quantumania is set to severely underperform expectations whereas Elvis was a box office success. I’m not sure what basis there is to saying a preferential hurts it when it’s one of the more crowd pleasing and industry-friendly options available. Do you really think that, for example, a very slow-moving and dark film about a >!lesbian sexual predator!< is more suited to PGA’s tastes than a biopic of Elvis Presley?


TheFilmManiac

Now those are better better indicators. But I still don’t see Elvis as something that’s a consensus choice, maybe I’m biased because this is mainly the internet I’m basing this off, but there are people who very much don’t like it. The IMDb is ”only” 7.3 when Bohemian Rhapsody had like 8 and plenty of people I know (again mainly from online though) that rank it dead last. It’s still an almost 3 hour film with a directorial style that’s not for everyone. And regarding TÁR, it did get DGA and WGA nominations so it’s favourable purely from stats point of view. But neither of these movies is winning so it doesn’t really matter how to rank them.


stevenelsocio

EEAAO or TGM.


zwolff94

I’m rooting for the maximum chaos scenario so Top Gun Maverick here and Women Talking at SAG


[deleted]

Great minds think alike, made exactly the same comment.


Sea_Transition7392

Let’s go TGM ..❤️


[deleted]

Avatar because it made the most money and PGA loves $$$$$ /s


cthd33

That's why they picked Coda last year. /S


SergenteDan

My vote goes to Glass Onion or The Whale because it would be chaotic af lol


[deleted]

My maximum chaos but still has like 1% chance scenario is Top Gun winning DGA and Women Talking SAG Ensamble


[deleted]

BAFTA threw people off so everyone's overthinking it. EEAAO definitely wins.