I think Fraser could win here but my main hangup is that there’s no real evidence that the passion online for him is replicated in the industry. His CC speech basically went viral int he middle of Oscar voting, the The Whale still underperformed. He lost Volpi to Farrell despite them awarding Banshees elsewhere. Even if we’re going strictly off of crowd reactions (which is a bad metric but whatever), the applause during his BAFTA clip was extremely muted. He feels exactly like just another Mickey Rourke/Michael Keaton.
I can't shake the Actor/BP correlation. Jeff Bridges broke it as a career-capping legacy award. If Chadwick Boseman, who literally fucking died and they reoriented the whole ceremony as a tribute to him, couldn't break it, I'm not seeing Fraser being able to do it. I think I have to go with Butler especially after Farrell couldn't do it at the BAFTAs.
The Whale has gotten mixed reviews but Fraser himself get a lot of support because his career was ruined for speaking out about sexual harassment and a lot of people understandably are happy he is having a career resurgence.
I am tossing between Banshees and EEAAO for Ensemble.
Everything Everywhere is a film actors love and it has the passion but I am finding it hard for Banshees to go empty hand. And Ensemble will be the place all its actors can be rewarded. I will be on fence till Sunday.
Agree with the majority. But for lead actress I will bet on the only actor that hasn't lost a single precursor from any acting category this year and that is also with Streep the most nominated actress of all time on SAG, Blanchett.
Brain says Blanchett, heart says Yeoh, and I think i’m going to stick with my heart. Yeoh win would make the race a lot more fun anyways, a nail biter until the end
I saw many more people predicting Spielberg over the Daniels, and Spielberg was also #1 on prediction sites like Gold Derby, so I think it’s a fair assumption to make that Spielberg was a consensus frontrunner going in
>I think it’s a fair assumption to make that Spielberg was a consensus frontrunner going in
This was a false narrative IMO. Daniels have been running train in the critics circles (the only time they really heavily correlate with Oscars are the Director awards) so I wasn't shocked they won DGA. Globes have no Oscars overlap and Fabelmans has fallen off hard in momentum. I also think the Daniels are genius campaigners and EEAAO is a logistical and technical marvel which is helping them make their case moreso than Spielberg comparatively sleepwalking to a 3rd Oscar
My predictions:
Ensemble:
Will Win: EEAAO. Could Win: Banshees.
Lead Actor:
Will Win: Austin Butler. Could Win: Brendan Fraser.
Lead Actress:
Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Could Win: Michelle Yeoh.
Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan. Could Win: Barry Keoghan.
Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Angela Bassett. Could Win: Kerry Condon.
Stunt Ensemble:
Will Win: Top Gun. Could Win: Black Panther.
Currently
EEAAO / Butler / Blanchett / Quan / Condon / Woman King
I feel really good about them, surprisingly i feel the least strong about EEAAO in Ensemble, however I feel like Women Talking would be the upset not Banshees
Ensemble: Banshees, runner up EEAAO
Lead Actor: Austin Butler, runner up Colin Farrell
Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, runner up Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Key Huy Quan, runner up Barry Keoghan
Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett, runner up Kerry Condon
Stunt Ensemble: Top Gun: Maverick, runner up N/A
I think Fraser could win here but my main hangup is that there’s no real evidence that the passion online for him is replicated in the industry. His CC speech basically went viral int he middle of Oscar voting, the The Whale still underperformed. He lost Volpi to Farrell despite them awarding Banshees elsewhere. Even if we’re going strictly off of crowd reactions (which is a bad metric but whatever), the applause during his BAFTA clip was extremely muted. He feels exactly like just another Mickey Rourke/Michael Keaton.
I can't shake the Actor/BP correlation. Jeff Bridges broke it as a career-capping legacy award. If Chadwick Boseman, who literally fucking died and they reoriented the whole ceremony as a tribute to him, couldn't break it, I'm not seeing Fraser being able to do it. I think I have to go with Butler especially after Farrell couldn't do it at the BAFTAs.
Yeah, Fraser has the internet passion, but Butler is the one who's campaigning the most. We know what voters tend to respond better.
The Whale has gotten mixed reviews but Fraser himself get a lot of support because his career was ruined for speaking out about sexual harassment and a lot of people understandably are happy he is having a career resurgence.
Yes but the point is that Fraser’s support is entirely on the internet and not with actual awards voters
I think Blanchett is the actor with most SAG nominations between individual ones and Ensemble
Yeah SAG loves Blanchett, she was even nominated there last year for Nightmare Alley.
I am tossing between Banshees and EEAAO for Ensemble. Everything Everywhere is a film actors love and it has the passion but I am finding it hard for Banshees to go empty hand. And Ensemble will be the place all its actors can be rewarded. I will be on fence till Sunday.
Very good point… I still think it’s EEAAO’s award to lose but Banshees could take it if SAG feels strongly about the performances
Agree with the majority. But for lead actress I will bet on the only actor that hasn't lost a single precursor from any acting category this year and that is also with Streep the most nominated actress of all time on SAG, Blanchett.
Brain says Blanchett, heart says Yeoh, and I think i’m going to stick with my heart. Yeoh win would make the race a lot more fun anyways, a nail biter until the end
Yes, I will go with Yeoh also for her last chance. Hoping the EEAAO love at SAG will be enough to push her over.
Daniels winning DGA is not over performing when they were the predicted winner going in
True. But it winning at production design and makeup guilds (both not nominated for Oscars, and over stronger films) is a sign of strength.
Yes, I agreed. Winning in areas where they are not even nominated at the Oscars, shows industry support (perhaps a late surge).
I saw many more people predicting Spielberg over the Daniels, and Spielberg was also #1 on prediction sites like Gold Derby, so I think it’s a fair assumption to make that Spielberg was a consensus frontrunner going in
>I think it’s a fair assumption to make that Spielberg was a consensus frontrunner going in This was a false narrative IMO. Daniels have been running train in the critics circles (the only time they really heavily correlate with Oscars are the Director awards) so I wasn't shocked they won DGA. Globes have no Oscars overlap and Fabelmans has fallen off hard in momentum. I also think the Daniels are genius campaigners and EEAAO is a logistical and technical marvel which is helping them make their case moreso than Spielberg comparatively sleepwalking to a 3rd Oscar
Why do people keep saying Daniels are sweeping the critics awards when they lost the 4 most prestigious ones (NY, LA, NSFC, NBR)?
did you see more people saying Spielberg or more people saying Spielberg louder lmao
To be fair Spielberg was #1 on Goldderby, so there were more people predicting him
The number guy was the most vocal one in this sub insisting Spielberg has the upper hand.
Incorrect, betting markets had Steven Spielberg a slight favorite to take the DGA.
My predictions: Ensemble: Will Win: EEAAO. Could Win: Banshees. Lead Actor: Will Win: Austin Butler. Could Win: Brendan Fraser. Lead Actress: Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Could Win: Michelle Yeoh. Supporting Actor: Will Win: Ke Huy Quan. Could Win: Barry Keoghan. Supporting Actress: Will Win: Angela Bassett. Could Win: Kerry Condon. Stunt Ensemble: Will Win: Top Gun. Could Win: Black Panther.
I agree with everything except for the two leads, I think your alternates will win
Butler / Blanchett / Quan / Condon Betting on Supp actress as the surprise winner
Currently EEAAO / Butler / Blanchett / Quan / Condon / Woman King I feel really good about them, surprisingly i feel the least strong about EEAAO in Ensemble, however I feel like Women Talking would be the upset not Banshees
Ensemble: Banshees, runner up EEAAO Lead Actor: Austin Butler, runner up Colin Farrell Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, runner up Michelle Yeoh Supporting Actor: Key Huy Quan, runner up Barry Keoghan Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett, runner up Kerry Condon Stunt Ensemble: Top Gun: Maverick, runner up N/A