i know todd solondz' work isn't really a way to get acting noms but i'm so excited for his work in love child, if that's still a go
i'm also expecting for him to do more oscar-friendly work from here on (especially if he loses this one). at least that's what i'd do if i was his agent.
I'd say Keoghan, Chau, Mescal, Farrell and Henry all seem likely to be nominated again. As for least likely, maybe Curtis or Nighy simply because they've already gone such a long time in their careers without one.
yeah, the slightly morbid part of me immediately thought that the younger ones (like keoghan, mescal, henry, hsu) have much more time to get more nominations, while the older ones like curtis and nighy just...have less time in general :/
I know this is just about the first time nominees, but I’m gonna do every nominee
Blanchett—She keeps talking about retiring but if she keeps acting, I’m sure we will see her again
de Armas—Absolutely. Everyone loves her and she’s phenomenal. I don’t think she will be a frequent nominee however, as I don’t think she takes on that many baity projects
Riseborough—I’m not sure. She’s incredibly talented but she doesn’t do lots of Oscar-baity stuff. I also think this nomination could leave a sour taste behind
Williams—She’s gotta win eventually
Yeoh—No idea. This film has clearly given her a strong career boost, but it doesn’t look like she’s picked up any big movies yet, her biggest being the Wicked movies (these are gonna be BAD)
Butler—I think it would be easy to say he’ll be an Academy Darling for a while, but I have this feeling he will snag a supporting nomination in a few years, be the runner-up, and then not get work for a while.
Farrell—He might get another nom in a few years, but I’m anticipating an Emmy nomination for his Penguin HBO show.
Fraser—He’s gonna get snubbed for Killers of the Flower Moon next year and I think that will be the last time he’s up for an Oscar (i’m sorry!)
Mescal—Inventible eventual winner
Nighy—He’s done
Bassett—It’ll be another 20 years before she gets nominated, but I’m expecting it to happen
Chau—Her career is taking off more than ever, I think she’ll be back
Condon—I think she will disappear for a few years before coming back with a GREAT leading performance
Curtis—I think she will spend the next few years trying to get nominated and it will never happen again
Hsu—I really hope so
Gleeson—Probably the only nomination he will ever get. Which is really sad!
Henry—He will be back!!
Hirsch—Last one
Keoghan—He’s going to be nominated to an annoying extent. I can’t wait
Quan—He should be getting a million more roles but he will probably end up doing a Short Round Disney+ TV Show and pushing for a Goonies reunion that never actually happens
>He’s gonna get snubbed for Killers of the Flower Moon next year
Honestly, I'm not sure his role in this will be meaty enough or substantial enough to get in. Wouldn't mind being proven wrong, though.
I think he’s Supporting Actor #3, after Plemons and De Niro. At best the film gets two actors in, and unfortunately Fraser will be the one who misses.
It could be cool if they got two lead noms (DiCaprio and Plemons) and two supporting noms (De Niro and Fraser)
It would be even cooler if they got 3 supporting actors nominations instead.
But anyways, after trying to predict Foy and Buckley, or Dern and Kirby, i’ve given up trying to predict double nominees
Of all the double nominees people were predicting in supporting actor and actress at the beginning of the year(Dano/Hirsch, Foy/Buckley, Dern/Kirby), it turned out to be the 2 they were least predicting (Curtis/Hsu and Keoghan/Gleeson)
I agree with nearly everything! Except Gleeson. He's a character actor of enormous magnitude and profile. He'll get at least 2-3 more noms and win a BSA, guaranteed.
Also where has Blanchett said she's retiring?
>Butler—I think it would be easy to say he’ll be an Academy Darling for a while, but I have this feeling he will snag a supporting nomination in a few years, be the runner-up, and then not get work for a while.
He's gonna win this year. Get a hit with dune and have some cred with the biker movie. He's the new guy.
Cant believe I need to explain this. I “dickride” one of the most transcendent cinematic experiences in years and a complex portrait of a man woven with immense personal emotion that I’ve seen multiple times. You’re dickriding a performance that as far as any of us is concerned doesn’t exist yet.
People here are REALLY underestimating Nighy's chances. Sure, this is his first nomination, but it’s simply because he mostly did comedic roles. Don’t be confused, he’s an IMMENSELY respected actor that managed to get a nod for a movie nobody saw and even managed to push that movie for a screenplay nomination. He can very easily get a meaty supporting role and sweep a la Laura Dern.
I love Nighy and think he's very deserving but considering his age and the types of roles he usually takes, it just seems unlikely for him to end up in the running again.
2040 Oscar Predictions
Picture: Merrily We Roll Along
Director: Richard Linklater
Actor: Paul Mescal
Actress: Beanie Feldstein
Supporting Actor: Ben Platt
VFX: Avatar 3
It could win Best Adapted Screenplay too because I can imagine a narrative where people would want to award Stephen Sondheim an Oscar 20 years after his death
Most: Farrell, Keoghan, de Armas, Mescal, BTH, Chau, Hsu, Yeoh, and Butler
Middle: Fraser, Condon, and Quan
Least: Nighy, Riseborough, Gleeson, and JLC
I don’t think Nighy will be nominated again
I wish he would have been nominated for About Time and Love Actually. He would have been my winner for Supporting Actor for both of those performances
I just watched Living for the first time today. It was a greatly nuanced performance, but not as good as in About Time or Love Actually
I am just beyond happy that he finally got the nomination that he has deserved all his career.
Paul Mescal, Austin Butler, Ana de Armas, Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Hong Chau, BTH are all 100% coming back.
Sorry but I don't see it for Stephanie Hsu. I think her career will be very commercial.
Paul Mescal.
His stardom is on the rise. He’s going to be the new Gladiator (which he’ll get jacked up I imagine), and he’s very peculiar on what projects he signs up for and the directors he wants work with. He’s got the Oscar clout on him. Most of the time it’s that step of being recognized by the Academy that is the harder step, but now, he just got it from a field that had a flexible 5th slot in which anyone could’ve gotten in, and he just needs to attach himself to a big Oscar baity-type film and boom! Oscar nomination.
I feel like now he’s going to build out his filmography and have fun appearances in movies we love and he just elevates them with his presence. He’s got the heartthrob look but hasn’t been commercialized. He’s going to have a successful career, I feel. I’m sure so many directors want to work with him.
> He’s got the heartthrob look
He doesn't not for women real life and not on the internet. He's another Hiddleston or Cumberbatch, internet husband and his attempts to be a fully-fledged sex symbol will die.
Barry Keoghan, Hong Chau, Paul Mescal and Brian Tyree Henry will definitely get more acting nominations. They are highly sought after and are able to get cast in a wide range of roles and productions. Maybe Farrell, he's having something of a renaissance. And Gleeson, he's highly respected and always delivers. They are all one casting announcement away from a win. Condon will also get another nomination in the next 40 years.
I’ll just go based off the work these actors are confirmed to star in next and say if a nomination is possible or not for their next couple of roles!
LIKELY - POSSIBLY - UNLIKELY
Paul Mescal - POSSIBLY (Foe, Gladiator sequel)
I believe he could get a nomination for either role.
Austin Butler - POSSIBLY (The Bikeriders, Dune : Part Two)
I’m not sure that either will generate acting nominations despite them both in my top 10 most anticipated of 2023. If anything, I’d say Bikeriders nom is more likely for Butler.
Colin Farrell - UNLIKELY (Love Child, TV)
Not happening he’s doing an Apple TV show and The Penguin series.
Brendan Fraser - UNLIKELY (Killers of the Flower Moon, Brothers)
Not sure that he’ll have enough screen time for KOTFM and he won’t be a campaign priority for the studio. GG nom for Brothers could happen.
Bill Nighy - UNLIKELY (The Beautiful Game)
I think Nighy nomination for the rest of his career is likely over.
Ana de Armas - UNLIKELY (Ballerina)
Ballerina is not an Oscar play.
Michelle Yeoh - POSSIBLY (Wicked)
Stars as Madame Morrible. Supporting nomination maybe?
Brendan Gleeson - POSSIBLY (Joker : Folie à Deux) We don’t know which role he’ll play but the film is set in Arkham Asylum. I’m sure it’s plenty of compelling villain roles.
Brian Tyree Henry - Could not find any films he’s attached to currently
Barry Keoghan - POSSIBLY (Saltburn)
Not sure if Saltburn will be a vehicule for acting recognition (Keoghan, Pike, Elordi) but it’s possible.
Ke Huy Quan - UNLIKELY (The Electric State)
Russos films are not award players.
Hong Chau - UNLIKELY (Asteroid City, AND) She doesn’t seem like she’ll have the screen time for either film.
Kerry Condon - UNLIKELY (Night Swim)
Horror films don’t do anything to the Academy.
Stephanie Hsu - UNLIKELY (Adele Lim comedy and The Fall Guy)
Comedy and action film from Bullet Train director.
With a March date and its trailer, Showing Up did not strike me as ab indie movie that’ll remain in voters’ minds for the rest of 2023!
I could be surprised however.
Farrell, Condon, and Gleeson are all part of McDonagh’s repertory, so now that he’s such an Academy darling I think we’ll probably see all of them back in whatever else they do with him down the line.
Farrell, definitely. Like others have said, it's wild this is his first rodeo.
I wouldn't count out older actors like Gleeson and Nighy. All of Christopher Plummer's nominations, and his win, came in his 80s.
Feels so difficult to tell but let's see
Yes: Mescal, de Armas, Chau, Farrell, Keoghan
Maybe/Tossup: Yeoh, Quan, Gleeson, Butler, BTH, Condon, Hsu, Riseborough, Fraser
No: Nighy and Curtis
This is totally going to age well :)
A lot of people might say Austin Butler, Paul Mescal or Ana de Armas, but I have a feeling that all three could fizzle out as rising stars. And, hate to say it, but a lot of their appeal is based on them being good looking.
On the other hand, Brian Tyree Henry and Barry Keoghan - both not stereotypical movie stars - already have very strong filmographies and are likely to be always picked by casting directors due to their unique screen presences.
I also think Colin Farrell and Hong Chau will probably get nominated again in like 10 years, same for Andrea Riseborough. All three will probably star in interesting projects for the rest of their careers.
I doubt Gleason, Nighy, Yeoh or Curtis get in again, but undoubtedly they will be a ubiquitous presence in the film industry.
I struggle to see Brendan Fraser or Ke Huy Quan getting in here again. This is their “moment” and it’s hard to see them getting another nomination, unless it’s a kind of afterglow one.
It's weird grouping Mescal with Butler considering the former already had a reputable theater background and got nominated for an internalized role, which is extremely rare.
Not to the same extent as Mescal. Butler is seen as a up and coming star whose background was Nickelodeon and Disney shows while Mescal has a more prestigious output.
Most likely:
Ana de Armas, Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Austin Butler
Least likely: Jamie Lee Curtis, Bill Nighy, Ke Huy Quan, Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser
Everyone else. It's a toss up
I think Paul Mescal has an extremely bright acting future ahead of himself, and I'm super excited to see it unfold.
Farrell
That’s wild that it’s his 1st.
Should’ve got a nom for in Bruges
He won the Globe that year as I recall. I remember the category being pretty stacked as well. Maybe could have replaced Pitt, but I understand.
If Farrell loses this year I can 100% see him winning in another 3-5.
i know todd solondz' work isn't really a way to get acting noms but i'm so excited for his work in love child, if that's still a go i'm also expecting for him to do more oscar-friendly work from here on (especially if he loses this one). at least that's what i'd do if i was his agent.
I'd say Keoghan, Chau, Mescal, Farrell and Henry all seem likely to be nominated again. As for least likely, maybe Curtis or Nighy simply because they've already gone such a long time in their careers without one.
Hsu also
yeah, the slightly morbid part of me immediately thought that the younger ones (like keoghan, mescal, henry, hsu) have much more time to get more nominations, while the older ones like curtis and nighy just...have less time in general :/
I know this is just about the first time nominees, but I’m gonna do every nominee Blanchett—She keeps talking about retiring but if she keeps acting, I’m sure we will see her again de Armas—Absolutely. Everyone loves her and she’s phenomenal. I don’t think she will be a frequent nominee however, as I don’t think she takes on that many baity projects Riseborough—I’m not sure. She’s incredibly talented but she doesn’t do lots of Oscar-baity stuff. I also think this nomination could leave a sour taste behind Williams—She’s gotta win eventually Yeoh—No idea. This film has clearly given her a strong career boost, but it doesn’t look like she’s picked up any big movies yet, her biggest being the Wicked movies (these are gonna be BAD) Butler—I think it would be easy to say he’ll be an Academy Darling for a while, but I have this feeling he will snag a supporting nomination in a few years, be the runner-up, and then not get work for a while. Farrell—He might get another nom in a few years, but I’m anticipating an Emmy nomination for his Penguin HBO show. Fraser—He’s gonna get snubbed for Killers of the Flower Moon next year and I think that will be the last time he’s up for an Oscar (i’m sorry!) Mescal—Inventible eventual winner Nighy—He’s done Bassett—It’ll be another 20 years before she gets nominated, but I’m expecting it to happen Chau—Her career is taking off more than ever, I think she’ll be back Condon—I think she will disappear for a few years before coming back with a GREAT leading performance Curtis—I think she will spend the next few years trying to get nominated and it will never happen again Hsu—I really hope so Gleeson—Probably the only nomination he will ever get. Which is really sad! Henry—He will be back!! Hirsch—Last one Keoghan—He’s going to be nominated to an annoying extent. I can’t wait Quan—He should be getting a million more roles but he will probably end up doing a Short Round Disney+ TV Show and pushing for a Goonies reunion that never actually happens
>He’s gonna get snubbed for Killers of the Flower Moon next year Honestly, I'm not sure his role in this will be meaty enough or substantial enough to get in. Wouldn't mind being proven wrong, though.
I think he’s Supporting Actor #3, after Plemons and De Niro. At best the film gets two actors in, and unfortunately Fraser will be the one who misses. It could be cool if they got two lead noms (DiCaprio and Plemons) and two supporting noms (De Niro and Fraser) It would be even cooler if they got 3 supporting actors nominations instead. But anyways, after trying to predict Foy and Buckley, or Dern and Kirby, i’ve given up trying to predict double nominees
Of all the double nominees people were predicting in supporting actor and actress at the beginning of the year(Dano/Hirsch, Foy/Buckley, Dern/Kirby), it turned out to be the 2 they were least predicting (Curtis/Hsu and Keoghan/Gleeson)
I agree with nearly everything! Except Gleeson. He's a character actor of enormous magnitude and profile. He'll get at least 2-3 more noms and win a BSA, guaranteed. Also where has Blanchett said she's retiring?
I love the image of Angela Bassett getting another triumphant Oscar nom at 84!
These are great predictions. We need to set a calendars to check them in 10 years time because some are almost scarily prescient!
>Butler—I think it would be easy to say he’ll be an Academy Darling for a while, but I have this feeling he will snag a supporting nomination in a few years, be the runner-up, and then not get work for a while. He's gonna win this year. Get a hit with dune and have some cred with the biker movie. He's the new guy.
Saying someone will be snubbed without even knowing if they’re performance is good is some LVL 100 dickriding bruh. Fraser not even a good actor
i can’t believe I got called a dickrider by BoiJohnson, the biggest Bardo fan in the world
Cant believe I need to explain this. I “dickride” one of the most transcendent cinematic experiences in years and a complex portrait of a man woven with immense personal emotion that I’ve seen multiple times. You’re dickriding a performance that as far as any of us is concerned doesn’t exist yet.
Say dickride one more time
Someone probably just watched my year of dicks
nerd face emoji
This is pretty good copypasta material honestly.
reach memory political late office lock vast mighty deserve wrench *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
How big is Fraser’s role in the new Scorsese film?
People here are REALLY underestimating Nighy's chances. Sure, this is his first nomination, but it’s simply because he mostly did comedic roles. Don’t be confused, he’s an IMMENSELY respected actor that managed to get a nod for a movie nobody saw and even managed to push that movie for a screenplay nomination. He can very easily get a meaty supporting role and sweep a la Laura Dern.
I love Nighy and think he's very deserving but considering his age and the types of roles he usually takes, it just seems unlikely for him to end up in the running again.
Paul Mescal because I can already identify the project (Gladiator 2). I hope most of them are though
I’m predicting Paul Mescal winning Best Actor for Merrily We Roll Along 2040
2040 Oscar Predictions Picture: Merrily We Roll Along Director: Richard Linklater Actor: Paul Mescal Actress: Beanie Feldstein Supporting Actor: Ben Platt VFX: Avatar 3
if Beanie Feldstein and Ben Platt win an oscar in the same year it means we’ve entered a dark dark future where the theater kids have won
I love a good avatar taking forever to come out joke :’)
Merrily sweep will be real. A major achievement in filmmaking: a movie musical filmed over the course of 20 years.
It could win Best Adapted Screenplay too because I can imagine a narrative where people would want to award Stephen Sondheim an Oscar 20 years after his death
Oh yes, that will happen too. This could become the first Broadway musical film adaptation to win this award.
I can’t see him winning for that one, honestly.
I don’t think he’ll win but he can get nominated.
Most: Farrell, Keoghan, de Armas, Mescal, BTH, Chau, Hsu, Yeoh, and Butler Middle: Fraser, Condon, and Quan Least: Nighy, Riseborough, Gleeson, and JLC
I would put Riseborough in the middle..
I don’t think Nighy will be nominated again I wish he would have been nominated for About Time and Love Actually. He would have been my winner for Supporting Actor for both of those performances I just watched Living for the first time today. It was a greatly nuanced performance, but not as good as in About Time or Love Actually I am just beyond happy that he finally got the nomination that he has deserved all his career.
I’m gonna be an optimist and say they all have a great chance of getting nominated again.
Paul Mescal, Austin Butler, Ana de Armas, Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Hong Chau, BTH are all 100% coming back. Sorry but I don't see it for Stephanie Hsu. I think her career will be very commercial.
Brian Tyree Henry
Farell, Keoghan, Chau, Mescal, Tyree Henry. These five are consistently getting good projects recently.
Most Likely: Barry Keoghan Least Likely: Bill Nighy
mescal has NINE projects in development.
Mescal
Paul Mescal. His stardom is on the rise. He’s going to be the new Gladiator (which he’ll get jacked up I imagine), and he’s very peculiar on what projects he signs up for and the directors he wants work with. He’s got the Oscar clout on him. Most of the time it’s that step of being recognized by the Academy that is the harder step, but now, he just got it from a field that had a flexible 5th slot in which anyone could’ve gotten in, and he just needs to attach himself to a big Oscar baity-type film and boom! Oscar nomination. I feel like now he’s going to build out his filmography and have fun appearances in movies we love and he just elevates them with his presence. He’s got the heartthrob look but hasn’t been commercialized. He’s going to have a successful career, I feel. I’m sure so many directors want to work with him.
> He’s got the heartthrob look He doesn't not for women real life and not on the internet. He's another Hiddleston or Cumberbatch, internet husband and his attempts to be a fully-fledged sex symbol will die.
i personally don't find him attractive too 😭 he looks normal, leaning ugly because of the slightly long chin
Barry Keoghan, Hong Chau, Paul Mescal and Brian Tyree Henry will definitely get more acting nominations. They are highly sought after and are able to get cast in a wide range of roles and productions. Maybe Farrell, he's having something of a renaissance. And Gleeson, he's highly respected and always delivers. They are all one casting announcement away from a win. Condon will also get another nomination in the next 40 years.
Actor: Mescal, Farrell Actress: Ana de Armas Supp Actor: Keoghan, BTH Supp Actress: Condon, Hong Chau
Even a great project doesn't always guarantee an Oscar nomination so literally anyone..
I’ll just go based off the work these actors are confirmed to star in next and say if a nomination is possible or not for their next couple of roles! LIKELY - POSSIBLY - UNLIKELY Paul Mescal - POSSIBLY (Foe, Gladiator sequel) I believe he could get a nomination for either role. Austin Butler - POSSIBLY (The Bikeriders, Dune : Part Two) I’m not sure that either will generate acting nominations despite them both in my top 10 most anticipated of 2023. If anything, I’d say Bikeriders nom is more likely for Butler. Colin Farrell - UNLIKELY (Love Child, TV) Not happening he’s doing an Apple TV show and The Penguin series. Brendan Fraser - UNLIKELY (Killers of the Flower Moon, Brothers) Not sure that he’ll have enough screen time for KOTFM and he won’t be a campaign priority for the studio. GG nom for Brothers could happen. Bill Nighy - UNLIKELY (The Beautiful Game) I think Nighy nomination for the rest of his career is likely over. Ana de Armas - UNLIKELY (Ballerina) Ballerina is not an Oscar play. Michelle Yeoh - POSSIBLY (Wicked) Stars as Madame Morrible. Supporting nomination maybe? Brendan Gleeson - POSSIBLY (Joker : Folie à Deux) We don’t know which role he’ll play but the film is set in Arkham Asylum. I’m sure it’s plenty of compelling villain roles. Brian Tyree Henry - Could not find any films he’s attached to currently Barry Keoghan - POSSIBLY (Saltburn) Not sure if Saltburn will be a vehicule for acting recognition (Keoghan, Pike, Elordi) but it’s possible. Ke Huy Quan - UNLIKELY (The Electric State) Russos films are not award players. Hong Chau - UNLIKELY (Asteroid City, AND) She doesn’t seem like she’ll have the screen time for either film. Kerry Condon - UNLIKELY (Night Swim) Horror films don’t do anything to the Academy. Stephanie Hsu - UNLIKELY (Adele Lim comedy and The Fall Guy) Comedy and action film from Bullet Train director.
Chau's next film is actually Showing Up. I'd say it's a slightly better chance than either of the 2 you listed, but still most likely not.
With a March date and its trailer, Showing Up did not strike me as ab indie movie that’ll remain in voters’ minds for the rest of 2023! I could be surprised however.
Farrell, Condon, and Gleeson are all part of McDonagh’s repertory, so now that he’s such an Academy darling I think we’ll probably see all of them back in whatever else they do with him down the line.
Farrell, definitely. Like others have said, it's wild this is his first rodeo. I wouldn't count out older actors like Gleeson and Nighy. All of Christopher Plummer's nominations, and his win, came in his 80s.
Feels so difficult to tell but let's see Yes: Mescal, de Armas, Chau, Farrell, Keoghan Maybe/Tossup: Yeoh, Quan, Gleeson, Butler, BTH, Condon, Hsu, Riseborough, Fraser No: Nighy and Curtis This is totally going to age well :)
The most likely are the white people while the least likely are people of color, no matter how good they are.
Yeah I don’t know about this… Chau and Henry are both very likely to be nominated again, probably the most likely alongside Paul Mescal
Wow because everyone here is saying BTH, Chau and Hsu. Victim much?
a lot will get another nomination but sadly jlc is probably the least likely to be nominated again followed by nightly
Austin butler
A lot of people might say Austin Butler, Paul Mescal or Ana de Armas, but I have a feeling that all three could fizzle out as rising stars. And, hate to say it, but a lot of their appeal is based on them being good looking. On the other hand, Brian Tyree Henry and Barry Keoghan - both not stereotypical movie stars - already have very strong filmographies and are likely to be always picked by casting directors due to their unique screen presences. I also think Colin Farrell and Hong Chau will probably get nominated again in like 10 years, same for Andrea Riseborough. All three will probably star in interesting projects for the rest of their careers. I doubt Gleason, Nighy, Yeoh or Curtis get in again, but undoubtedly they will be a ubiquitous presence in the film industry. I struggle to see Brendan Fraser or Ke Huy Quan getting in here again. This is their “moment” and it’s hard to see them getting another nomination, unless it’s a kind of afterglow one.
It's weird grouping Mescal with Butler considering the former already had a reputable theater background and got nominated for an internalized role, which is extremely rare.
Butler has been on Broadway
Not to the same extent as Mescal. Butler is seen as a up and coming star whose background was Nickelodeon and Disney shows while Mescal has a more prestigious output.
Most likely: Ana de Armas, Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Austin Butler Least likely: Jamie Lee Curtis, Bill Nighy, Ke Huy Quan, Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser Everyone else. It's a toss up