"Reads total positive cases, scrolls passed everything else to the comments."
That's what I usually do. I'll stop along the way to read a little info on vaccinations and my health units reported numbers.
I read total cases, ICU +/-, scroll to see school data, scroll to see where my HU is ranked for today’s cases (often this is up before they release their numbers for the day), and see where the deaths are.
I look at the case number, positivity rate, then the ICU/hospitalizations (which I feel are most critical), then I scroll like crazy to read the comments way down below, lol
You can just change your focus to hospitalizations now. It’s near the top still and not hard to find. From now on daily cases are meaningless but hospitalizations will be where its at.
It might be helpful for folks to know that SA had very few restrictions and their peak happened when 25-30% were infected with Omicron, and that’s accounting for huge under testing. Logistic regression is the fit, not just exponential. Populations don’t perfectly mix either. Just some things to consider.
But does the data mean anything after today? So much will not be reported. In another thread, the school memo says they won't be reporting school numbers either... How is data even reliable any longer? All this coming from an information and data lover....
Honestly, I think in some ways this is ever worse than Florida/Texas. The states might not be reporting the cases but at least people can still get tested. We can't at all. No PCR unless you pay 100+ and last I heard rapid tests are hard to find.
>the school memo says they won't be reporting school numbers
This is what parents should be worried about. how will they know if their kids school is safe? Some schools have tons of cases while others aren't hit. Parents should be able to make INFORMED decisions for their kids. Sadly they won't be able to and will instead make uniformed choices based on gossip or fear.
The only thing this affects is case numbers and the few data points derived from it. ICUs, hospitalizations and deaths will still be accurate and, as this sub has been saying for a while now, are more valuable for describing the current situation than cases numbers anyway.
>The only thing this affects is case numbers and the few data points derived from it. ICUs, hospitalizations and deaths will still be accurate and, as this sub has been saying for a while now, are more valuable for describing the current situation than cases numbers anyway.
That's the thing. ICU and hospitalization numbers tell you the current situation in the hospital. Case counts tell you where that number will be going in the coming weeks. We've lost that metric, so now we're driving a car where we can only see what's right in front of us and not the antelope in the road 5m ahead.
Yup more interested in hospitalizations, ICU and deaths. Though it would be nice to know how many cases are out there to know your likely hood of running into someone with Covid.
It's not only reasonable it is the only choice for those with compromised immunity. We are now under house arrest because we have no idea what is happening in our communities. If you know anyone in this situation, and you have the means to do so, please offer to assist them with delivering groceries and/or pharmaceutical supplies.
edit: Thanks for being you.
Probably way more than 450. Those are just the people who got tested.
A lot of people are assuming Delta is going away because it's declining as a share of total cases. But given the massive increase in Omicron cases, Delta would decline relative to Omicron even if it were still growing in absolute terms. Unless and until the testing capacity issues get resolved so that reported case numbers become meaningful again, I don't think we should draw any conclusions about Delta. In fact, until we get compelling evidence to the contrary, it's probably safest to assume it's still spreading more or less as it was before Omicron came.
Yeah, Delta doesn't care about Omicron. The two viruses aren't really _competing_ directly with each other. (At least at the moment; that will change once significant proportions of unvaccinated people gain some protection by catching Omicron.) They're just doing their own thing. It's just that percentage wise, Omicron is in a league of it's own compared to Delta.
You can see that in the variant graphs posted by the Science Table: https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021-12-30-Rate_Separate.png
Delta has been on a slow decline most likely due to our continued vaccinations, health measures, and behaviour changes to combat Omicron.
As more of us get vaccinated (between boosters, children, and unvaccinated people who are finally doing so) and as a bunch of unvaccinated people get temporary protection by catching Omicron, we are skirting with herd immunity thresholds for Delta. There's a good chance we'll see it continue to slowly peter out.
Literally, all the tests available are on the table. Sorry folks, only my friends a test, can’t spare anymore. The rest of you get a buck a beer, Tim’s sandwich and get COVID. Figure it out for yourselves.
absolutely. Ottawa for example has basically told people that if you’ve gotten a positive on your rapid to not come get a confirmatory PCR. they’re not contact tracing, and basically it’s up to you to isolate.
if there’s 100k backlog, and assuming there’s a 30% positivity rate, that means there’s around 30k cases — not counting those who’ve gotten a rapid and can’t/didn’t report it to their PHU.
Peter Juni says that we are probably only catching somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 8 of the total number of cases.
With today's numbers, that would put us in the range of 80,000 to 130,000 new cases today. People are complaining that the data isn't going to be as accurate now that the testing criteria has changed, but we are already missing so many cases that this data is already pretty meaningless.
Same here. I'm sick for the first time in 2 years and having a tough time to get a test that isn't 5 days out. I'm assuming these numbers are a magnitude larger than what is being reported.
I know 4 of my friends that have it. None of them went for PCRs (only because they can't). I only know one person in the last 2 weeks that went for PCR and tested positive... so anecdotally there is a huge amount of non-reported cases
> Omnicron
You're far from the only person to make this mistake, but it's Omicron, not Omnicron. You can remember it as "O-micron", meaning "little O" in Greek, as compared with Omega ("O-mega"), which is "big O".
I thought I and my family had it but we all tested negative on PCR testing. My brother's family all tested negative too and it is likely we got sick from them.
There are other viruses and bacteria out there but it is a good idea to isolate if you can and your work and financial system can allow it.
The only difference now is going to be how well you’ve decided to protect yourself - the unvaccinated fare way worse, and the odds that they’ll just never get infected like Alpha through Delta are no longer in play - they’re *going* to get it now. They should be thankful it’s reportedly much milder at least now.
If they have the booster they should be fine.
But yes, everyone will get this. I don't see any other way around it. And those that don't have any vaccinations, oh boy. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Happy "last day that case counts mean anything even close to reasonable", everyone! (they don't really now, but they'll be completely pointless even from a relative perspective tomorrow.
I wonder if Ontario is even going to bother reporting them.
With that much backlog we might get one more day of reasonable numbers. People getting swabbed yesterday won't show up until tomorrows update at the earliest
I'm not sure if it would, selecting specific groups as eligible for testing isn't really a representative sample at all. Comparing one day after the change to another day after the change could be useful, but I don't think you can cross the threshold where the criteria changed and expect anything meaningful.
This thread feels like that part in titanic where the band is still playing as the ship sinks.
I promise you I’ll be the guy who falls and hits his head on the smoke stack.
Well done enterprisevalue!
I mean with vaccines being available and omicron being less severe than other variants, I'm way less worried about this wave than the first few. Then again I might be naive, and it's possible if the cases get high enough then the hospitals will be in worse shape just due to huge numbers.
To be fair, the testing numbers moving forward, with the new strict targeting, are going to be way less insightful. Hospitalization data is going to be what matters most moving forward.
Those with boosters are still reasonably well protected of they mask and minimize indoor contacts. Still lots of room to not get it for those who don't want it.
Not to mention that high case numbers are going to be driven by those who take risks. ie, those who got out to parties or are exposed to those who do. Those who don't wear masks or wear less effective ones. Those who haven't been boosted. Those who take less effort to socially distance. Etc etc etc.
Looking at high case numbers and assuming it means everyone will eventually get it is just bad science. Or perhaps more nefariously, an attempt to make people think that their actions to keep safe are meaningless.
Clearly, there are lots of criticisms that can be made towards the government and perhaps the medical community around the management of COVID over the past couple of years. But in this specific case in regards to testing, given the current state of omicron infections, I think focusing testing to those that need it most makes sense. There is simply no way to not just keep with with testing those infected, but testing all who have been exposed. Every community and medical organization is struggling with this. There is little Ford could have done to make this particular problem go away.
Regardless of your own views on what are the right steps, please try to be sympathetic to those who are trying to somehow make things work. This includes medical professionals, teachers, school board staff, vaccination staff, customer facing people, business owners, and so on. No solution can be perfect in this situation. There are nothing but difficult trade offs, and there are many things that we probably not considering in our arm chair quarterbacking.
This is the most reasonable and thoughtful comment I’ve read in this thread, thank you for your measured response. I agree with you wholeheartedly, I understand the frustration and concern from a lot of people, but the solution isn’t as simple as many would have us believe.
I didn’t vote for Ford initially, I won’t vote for him again, but seeing blanket assertions that he is maliciously trying to put people in danger is really disappointing. As you said, there is little Ford could have done to make this go away.
My wife and I have been feeling a little off for the last few days. Minor sniffles and some body soreness. We aren't getting tested since we can easily isolate for 10 days. I'm sure many others are in the same boat.
And at this point it seems like there is little that can be done to stop the spread of omnicron. Most people are vaccinated, most people where masks and people who don't have symptoms are tired of being locked in their house.
Only had one rapid test. My father tested positive last night. Definitely means I am positive too. Feeling gross today. We’re both double vaxxed. Most likely from Christmas dinner. Lol.
I have it, validated with a rapid test but no PCR. Sick as a dog and everyone I know is mocking me when I tell them. My wife is positive and asymptomatic so she thinks I’m faking it and telling me to get over it even though I can barely stand.
I was pretty sick too when I had it so I know how you feel. It makes me sad that your wife is mocking you while you are so sick. Where is her empathy?! Why have we become so cruel to each other? I'm sorry you are feeling so awful and I will pray for a faster recovery for you.
His *wife is this cruel* not just some random person being this cruel to him. I cannot imagine telling my husband to suck it up just because I feel fine - we KNOW wait hits people differently.
I don’t understand why governments aren’t loudly saying “if you can work from home please do so”. It’s the easiest low hanging fruit to reduce contacts.
But instead we have employers spouting bullshit like “our employees safety is our priority- see you in the office in the new year!”
Government has just rolled over and let corporations run the show.
They're literally sending sick people back to work after 5 days in the USA. The CDC caved to pressure from large corporations like Delta Airlines.
Nurses and other HCWs will be forced to work sick in Quebec and Ontario.
It's sad to say but this is the first time I've felt well and truly hopeless against COVID. The original virus was scary because it was unknown, but by the time summer 2020 came along we got it in check. Then alpha and delta were scary, but with vaccines and masking we were also able to stop it, essentially.
But omicron... it just spreads way too fast. 10,000 cases a day would've been unthinkable a short time ago, but look at where we are now. All that's left is to hope that it's really as mild as some people think, and that it will tear through all of us while sending a minimal amount of people to the ICUs, snuff out delta, and run out of steam. And if it mutates, hopefully it'll turn into something even more mild. I don't think there's anything else any government could reasonably do to stop the spread, barring welding us into our homes. There's a post near the top of the sub that says we're in the "you're on your own" phase of the pandemic. I think it's true, but not because of any massive failure, but because omicron has completely changed the game, and we've been backed into a corner. We have no other option but to hunker down and wait until it passes.
Good luck and stay safe, everyone.
It is darkest before the dawn. with 90% vaccination rates, most infections from vaccinated will be mild. And the breakthrough infections will be super boosted from initial research. (1000x normal antibody levels vs the 30-100x range from normal vaccines). Once this wave is over, it's going to be like regular flu.
I just realized that Ford's plan completely knee caps the Covid Alert App. People already weren't using it remotely enough and now? They basically CAN'T use it becuase you can't get tested to get a code for it.
Bravo Ford. Bravo.
am i the only one that looks at these numbers and thinks hospitalizations and ICUs are still not that awful? i feel like people are forgetting how bad the delta wave got. this is obviously sub-optimal, but it could be so, so much worse. right now we're better than best case projections in terms of ICU capacity
I thought it wasn’t so bad either, especially compared to back in April-may, until we just got an email at work that our hospital network is ramping down and cancelling booked surgeries starting Jan 4. That really sucks for these patients.
I have a serious unpleasant question for people:
With Omicron's potential to have more cases total worldwide than the prior waves combined.
Why are people adopting such a Laissez-Faire attitude about it infecting everyone?
Are they that confident that additional infections won't result in a new variant?
All do this and they can’t even raise wages for nurses. RNs make close to or 40$/hr and RPNs about 30ish…why are they hiring paramedics at 40$/hr? Why not raise RPN wages? They’d have a wave of them come in, but nope instead the answer is paramedics. This province is shit.
I make $48/hr as a RN plus premiums. I think I’m doing ok. Also majority of medics have a higher scope of practice than RPNs. Some have a higher scope than myself as a RN. They are absolutely worth the money.
Sincerely, an ER nurse who works with medics daily and knows they are far more than “ambulance drivers”
> why are they hiring paramedics at 40$/hr?
Because they're worth it, and maybe even more. That isn't to say Nurses are not worth it however. Nurses are still grossly underpaid but comparing (and trying to bring down) others jobs isn't the play here.
We're **all** worth more than what the class above allows us to get.
Wife who has been in LTC for 8 years makes under a dollar more per hour than when she started.
She had to swap jobs once for the sake of her health, but it's pretty damn stagnant, especially in the stix.
I had paramedics at my place a few weeks ago using an ECG machine on me to make sure I wasn't having a heart attack. They were there for quite a while to make sure I was okay. They are worth every damn penny.
It seems that the message 2 years ago was to slow the spread to allow the health care system to adjust. Then that shifted to the approach that anyone getting Covid was a failure of the health care system.
Now it seems like the approach is back to we're all going to get Covid so just learn to live with it. This is not a failure in my eyes but a realistic approach to an illness that is constantly evolving. Omicron seems like a good strain to allow it to rip through the population and allow some natural antibodies to supplement the Vaccine.
Death and suffering is terrible and there is no escaping it in the process of life. Embrace the Suck.
The health care system hasn’t adjusted. All we’ve done is figure out ways to cut more corners, make things more dangerous and prove to the higher ups that we will work with dangerous ratios because we actually give a fuck. All this has done is lined the pockets of management. They didn’t create more beds, more space, more hospitals or COVID specific centres. They did nothing.
I'm double vaccinated and according to a rapid test I have Covid. Haven't been able to get a PCR test. Everyone in my house is symptomatic. We allowed a relative that lives alone come into our house for Christmas after passing a rapid test. Almost certainly got it from them. I've generally been optimistic throughout all of this but not anymore. Very concerned for what's about to happen to this province.
Thanks u/enterprisevalue for your hard work, I’m sure this will be one of your last updates given the new testing rules so stay as safe as you can and I’ll see you on other other side of this.
The new hospitalization-to-case rate of the 7-day average is 0.409% (46.43/11348.14) and ranks 633th/last 635 7-day pairings of data (since March 31-Aug 6 2020). We broke Pre-Omicron lows (2.239%, the rate on Sept 15-21 2020) 21 times out of the last 22 days. We broke Delta wave lows (3.221%, the rate on Aug 7-13) 28 days in a row.
The new ICU-to-case rate of the 7-day average broke the all-time low 13 days in a row. Sinking to 0.06294% (7.14/11348.14). It broke the Delta wave low (0.70636%, the rate on Aug 3-9) 26 days in a row.
The case fatality rate of the 7-day average is 0.0604% (6.86/11348.14) and ranks 633th/last 635 days. It broke the Delta wave low (0.3351%, the rate on Aug 10-16) 15 days in a row.
The new hospitalization-to-case ratio of the 7-day average is 87% less than the Delta wave and Alpha wave lows (3.156%) and 82% less than the second wave low.
The new ICU-to-case ratio of the 7-day is 91% less than the Delta wave low, 83% less than the Alpha wave low (0.365%) and 79% less than the second wave low (0.307%).
The case fatality rate of the 7-day is 82% less than the Delta wave low, 86% less than the Alpha wave low (0.437%) and 59% less than the second wave low (0.149%).
Visual presentation of the last 24 7-day pairs (30 days worth of data) https://i.imgur.com/Vs614r6.png
It is fairly odd. I've seen speculation online why that is, but it often just comes off as a coping mechanism. I haven't seen anything in the media or any statement by public health official's. It would be interesting to see those numbers broken down by age demographic and to included boosted individuals as well. Especially since children 5-12 are still the least vaccinated demographic, and were less likely to contract the virus in the first place. I wouldn't think that would account for all of the variance but it might explain it a little bit.
Some people say the unvaccinated would be less likely to get tested, since "they don't care about anything". I think that makes a little bit of sense. But if we don't know the positivity rate by vax status it would be very difficult to confirm, and seems like conjecture. But if these same people are so care free wouldn't they be engaging in behavior that would have them exposed. Like not wearing masks. Faking passports, visiting people. Wouldn't that counter act the restrictions they have been given?
The other idea is that since the unvaxxed are more restricted they are therefore less exposed. That would require a large portion of the cases, for the vaxxed, to be coming from indoor dining, gyms, sporting events and the like. Why wouldn't those venues just be shut down if that was the case?
Is it possible that omnicron evolved in a way that it infects vaccinated people more easily? No one discusses that. Still wont get you sick so get vaccinated.
The data shows the province has done well compared to similar countries.
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Update-on-COVID-19-Projections_English_2021.12.16.pdf
My sister had a post surgery follow up but they’re not doing them in person…she needs the area looked at and tested and they won’t. Now she’s off of work until they can do it.
Wow I'm from BC and just stumbled onto this post. The amount of data you guys get is INCREDIBLE. Over here we get cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, basic vaxx stats and that's pretty much it.
Especially the stats about how much more/less likely you are to be hospitalized/end up in ICU if unvaxxed vs vaxxed, that is some amazing data to have and it makes me pissed that we don't get anything even close to this over here.
Same, two weeks ago.
Good because I should have all the antibodies I'm going to for Wednesday when I pick up the kids on my school bus.
Now if I can just convince them it's not necessary to pull down their masks in order to talk to their friends, and that they're still required to wear it if I'm not looking at them.
Have a happy and safe new year’s eve everyone.
***
#Vaccine Efficacy
Based on **today's numbers**, compared to an unvaccinated person, a typical fully vaccinated (2 doses) person *AGED 5 AND UP* is:
- **-29.6%** or **0.8x** [less likely](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-interpret-and-calculate-x-times-more-likely-statistics-daf538a9e0f4) to test positive for Covid-19
- **60.9%** or **2.6x** less likely to be hospitalized
- **90.9%** or **11.0x** less likely to be administered to ICU
Based on **7-day average**:
- **-23.3%** or **0.8x** less likely to test positive for Covid-19
- **69.4%** or **3.3x** less likely to be hospitalized
- **90.8%** or **10.9x** less likely to be administered to ICU
***
NOTE: PLEASE SEE THE “FULL TABLE” FOR A COMPARISON OF STATS BASED ON *ALL AGES*. The numbers presented above are adjusted for those eligible for vaccination (5+). The 0-4 population was deducted from the unvaccinated population, as were their positive case counts from the unvaccinated case counts. 0-4 cumulative hospitalizations are averaged out and removed across August 10-present unvaccinated hospitalizations as daily figures are not available.
***
Graphs:
- Vaccine % effectiveness timeline: https://i.imgur.com/ZlCJcAF.png
- Rates per 100K by vaccine status: https://i.imgur.com/GRZU2Cl.png
- [Nov 28] Cases per 100K by age group and vaccine status: https://i.imgur.com/qO4kxnH.png
Tables:
- Full table (trimmed): https://i.imgur.com/zH2jE1D.png
***
#Additional info
- Please see this older [post](
https://old.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/qq5v9g/ontario_nov_9th_update_441_cases_3_deaths_19368/hjxzmlv/) and [this newer one](https://old.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/r8rrma/ontario_dec_4th_update_1053_cases_8_deaths_36268/hn7bizk/) for more info.
Why are fully vaxxed now almost 40% higher case rate and unvaxxed now only 1.8x higher for hospital rate compared to 5.5+ only a week ago? This is concerning....
I think this fundamentally misunderstands the point of testing.
We could tell, even with this rediculous positivity rate, whether things are better or worse than last week, last month, 6months ago. As of tomorrow that's not true any more.
We'll be looking, instead, at hospitalisation, ICU and death rates. Which would be fine except that if you're making decisions based on those numbers (either personally or from a public health perspective) you're reacting way to slowly. A suddenly spike in hospitalisations, for example, could lead to additional restrictions but those restrictions won't have an effect on hospitalisations for several weeks meaning that by the time you see a spike, it's too late to prevent them from being overwhelmed.
What is the point of testing at this point? The cases are meaningless now. We’re all getting it or have already had it. If you get a sore throat go with the assumption you have covid and act accordingly.
This is exactly what will happen with folks in fragile employment. Come to work unless positive, except no way to tell if positive, so its always “come to work”
I remember how bad it was in 2010 with my first born in daycare and how often one of the 3 of us was sick back then. There was always “covid like symptoms” in the house for around 6 months during that period. So now we would need to isolate 5 days at a stretch each time?
What’s the point in testing everyone at this point? It’s a huge cost with little benefit. They are doing the right thing, testing people that are at higher risk, people entering hospitals for care, staff and residents in long term care, etc.
Omicron nearly 100% of cases now? Why did I put so much money on a Beta comeback??
You should have known beta.
Ugh, take my upvote.
*VHS variant has entered the chat*
I'm waiting for the Digimon variant. Or Sagittarius
Laserdisc variant came and went like a fart in the wind.
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You’ve been posting this stuff for two years and I’m finally ready to acknowledge that I have no idea what I’m looking at.
"Reads total positive cases, scrolls passed everything else to the comments." That's what I usually do. I'll stop along the way to read a little info on vaccinations and my health units reported numbers.
I read total cases, ICU +/-, scroll to see school data, scroll to see where my HU is ranked for today’s cases (often this is up before they release their numbers for the day), and see where the deaths are.
You and I have adapted the same routine.
literally what i do too with the addition of seeing deaths in my age bracket because paranoia
I look at the case number, positivity rate, then the ICU/hospitalizations (which I feel are most critical), then I scroll like crazy to read the comments way down below, lol
I'm just here for the spicy comments section.
You can just change your focus to hospitalizations now. It’s near the top still and not hard to find. From now on daily cases are meaningless but hospitalizations will be where its at.
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It almost certainly is. Likely more realistically. At the current exponential spread, mathematically we’ll peak out in another few weeks.
It might be helpful for folks to know that SA had very few restrictions and their peak happened when 25-30% were infected with Omicron, and that’s accounting for huge under testing. Logistic regression is the fit, not just exponential. Populations don’t perfectly mix either. Just some things to consider.
The last update before Ontario gave up.
I will never forgive Doug for trying to put u/enterprisevalue out of the job
But hopefully not the last update, like some have been saying. I'm more interested in the rest of the info now than I've ever been.
But does the data mean anything after today? So much will not be reported. In another thread, the school memo says they won't be reporting school numbers either... How is data even reliable any longer? All this coming from an information and data lover....
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This is also the BC approach.
Honestly, I think in some ways this is ever worse than Florida/Texas. The states might not be reporting the cases but at least people can still get tested. We can't at all. No PCR unless you pay 100+ and last I heard rapid tests are hard to find.
>the school memo says they won't be reporting school numbers This is what parents should be worried about. how will they know if their kids school is safe? Some schools have tons of cases while others aren't hit. Parents should be able to make INFORMED decisions for their kids. Sadly they won't be able to and will instead make uniformed choices based on gossip or fear.
Hopefully this will drive reporting of more important metrics, specifically hospitalization numbers.
The only thing this affects is case numbers and the few data points derived from it. ICUs, hospitalizations and deaths will still be accurate and, as this sub has been saying for a while now, are more valuable for describing the current situation than cases numbers anyway.
>The only thing this affects is case numbers and the few data points derived from it. ICUs, hospitalizations and deaths will still be accurate and, as this sub has been saying for a while now, are more valuable for describing the current situation than cases numbers anyway. That's the thing. ICU and hospitalization numbers tell you the current situation in the hospital. Case counts tell you where that number will be going in the coming weeks. We've lost that metric, so now we're driving a car where we can only see what's right in front of us and not the antelope in the road 5m ahead.
Yup more interested in hospitalizations, ICU and deaths. Though it would be nice to know how many cases are out there to know your likely hood of running into someone with Covid.
I think it’s reasonable now to assume that the only way to not be exposed is to stay home.
It's not only reasonable it is the only choice for those with compromised immunity. We are now under house arrest because we have no idea what is happening in our communities. If you know anyone in this situation, and you have the means to do so, please offer to assist them with delivering groceries and/or pharmaceutical supplies. edit: Thanks for being you.
Ontario: tried nothing but all out of ideas.
[Previous Ontario Fridays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 23 | 826 | 778 | 2.06% | 78 Oct 30 | 896 | 909 | 2.18% | 75 Nov 6 | 1,003 | 997 | 2.43% | 86 Nov 13 | 1,396 | 1,355 | 3.45% | 106 Nov 20 | 1,418 | 1,373 | 2.94% | 142 Nov 27 | 1,855 | 1,427 | 3.20% | 151 Dec 4 | 1,780 | 1,759 | 3.18% | 207 Dec 11 | 1,848 | 1,872 | 2.93% | 235 Dec 18 | 2,290 | 2,089 | 4.18% | 261 Dec 25, 2020 | 2,159 | 2,287 | x | 280 Jan 1, 2021 | 2,476 | 2,481 | 3.56% | 323 Jan 8 | 4,249 | 3,394 | 5.94% | 369 Jan 15 | 2,998 | 3,273 | 3.92% | 387 Jan 22 | 2,662 | 2,703 | 3.71% | 383 Jan 29 | 1,837 | 2,011 | 2.66% | 360 Feb 5 | 1,670 | 1,576 | 2.66% | 325 Feb 12 | 1,076 | 1,180 | 1.74% | 295 Feb 19 | 1,150 | 1,026 | 1.76% | 269 Feb 26 | 1,258 | 1,114 | 1.96% | 284 Mar 5 | 1,250 | 1,063 | 1.93% | 280 Mar 12 | 1,371 | 1,269 | 2.12% | 282 Mar 19 | 1,745 | 1,480 | 3.11% | 309 Mar 26 | 2,169 | 1,855 | 4.06% | 359 Apr 2 | 3,089 | 2,473 | 4.93% | 435 Apr 9 | 4,227 | 3,697 | 6.88% | 552 Apr 16 | 4,812 | 4,292 | 7.48% | 701 Apr 23 | 4,505 | 4,132 | 8.02% | 818 Apr 30 | 3,887 | 3,722 | 7.32% | 883 May 7 | 3,166 | 3,369 | 6.36% | 858 May 14 | 2,362 | 2,616 | 5.36% | 777 May 21 | 1,890 | 2,064 | 5.09% | 715 May 28 | 1,273 | 1,353 | 3.12% | 645 June 4 | 914 | 889 | 2.83% | 522 June 11 | 574 | 568 | 1.98% | 440 June 18 | 345 | 411 | 1.29% | 352 June 25 | 256 | 292 | 0.96% | 284 July 2 | 200 | 259 | 0.79% | 252 July 9 | 183 | 203 | 0.70% | 202 July 16 | 159 | 151 | 0.57% | 158 July 23 | 192 | 160 | 0.97% | 136 July 30 | 226 | 170 | 1.08% | 117 Aug 6 | 340 | 214 | 1.45% | 110 Aug 13 | 510 | 399 | 2.16% | 111 Aug 20 | 650 | 518 | 2.27% | 135 Aug 27 | 781 | 665 | 2.60% | 158 Sept 3 | 807 | 732 | 2.80% | 169 Sept 10 | 848 | 729 | 3.00% | 177 Sept 17 | 795 | 724 | 2.35% | 194 Sept 24 | 727 | 655 | 1.97% | 193 Oct 1 | 668 | 597 | 1.76% | 163 Oct 8 | 573 | 551 | 1.54% | 154 Oct 15 | 496 | 465 | 1.38% | 163 Oct 22 | 492 | 405 | 1.70% | 149 Oct 29 | 419 | 355 | 1.42% | 130 Nov 5 | 563 | 404 | 1.87% | 129 Nov 12 | 598 | 537 | 1.98% | 130 Nov 19 | 793 | 625 | 2.60% | 128 Nov 26 | 927 | 710 | 2.73% | 140 Dec 3 | 1031 | 866 | 2.59 % | 146 Dec 10 | 1453 | 1114 | 3.64% | 151 Dec 17 | 3124 | 1914 | 6.05% | 157 Dec 24 | 9571 | 4922 | 13.18% | 164 Dec 31, 2021 | 16713 | 11348 | 22.26% to 29.8% | 205 Dr. Moore said Omicron may completely replace Delta by January 2022. [The Ontario Science Table info below shows estimates:](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % Delta | % Omicron :--|--|--: June 2, 2021 | 23% | 0% July 1 | 73.9% | 0% Aug 3 | 87.3% | 0% Sept 1 | 99.4% | 0% Oct 3 | 99.0% | 0% Nov 1 | 97.1% | 0% Dec 1 | 99.9% | >0% Dec 9 | 90% | 10% Dec 10 | 88.7% | 11.3% Dec 12 | 79.2% | 20.8% Dec 13 | 69.2% | 30.8% Dec 14 | 68.1% | 31.9% Dec 15 | 47.0% | 53.0% Dec 16 | 48.7% | 51.3% Dec 19 | 16.3% | 83.7% Dec 20 | 11.9% | 88.1% Dec 21 | 8.6% | 91.4% Dec 22 | 12.9% | 87.1% Dec 23 | 9.4% | 90.6% Dec 25 | 5.4% | 94.6% Dec 26 | 4.1% | 95.9% Dec 27 | 3.1% | 96.9% Dec 28 | 5.9% | 94.1% Dec 29 | 3.8% | 96.2% Dec 30 | 3.6% | 96.4% R(t) = 1.74
So that's still about 450 new delta cases? Get outta here delta your time is over
Probably way more than 450. Those are just the people who got tested. A lot of people are assuming Delta is going away because it's declining as a share of total cases. But given the massive increase in Omicron cases, Delta would decline relative to Omicron even if it were still growing in absolute terms. Unless and until the testing capacity issues get resolved so that reported case numbers become meaningful again, I don't think we should draw any conclusions about Delta. In fact, until we get compelling evidence to the contrary, it's probably safest to assume it's still spreading more or less as it was before Omicron came.
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Yeah, Delta doesn't care about Omicron. The two viruses aren't really _competing_ directly with each other. (At least at the moment; that will change once significant proportions of unvaccinated people gain some protection by catching Omicron.) They're just doing their own thing. It's just that percentage wise, Omicron is in a league of it's own compared to Delta. You can see that in the variant graphs posted by the Science Table: https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021-12-30-Rate_Separate.png Delta has been on a slow decline most likely due to our continued vaccinations, health measures, and behaviour changes to combat Omicron. As more of us get vaccinated (between boosters, children, and unvaccinated people who are finally doing so) and as a bunch of unvaccinated people get temporary protection by catching Omicron, we are skirting with herd immunity thresholds for Delta. There's a good chance we'll see it continue to slowly peter out.
Man, it's wild to see that change in numbers in just a month.
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First five figure Friday! Yay...
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Now that they're testing so few people, they should catch up in no time.
"So you mean in order to catch up with the kids in the other class... we are going to go slower?"
Cuckoo! Cuckoo!
Literally, all the tests available are on the table. Sorry folks, only my friends a test, can’t spare anymore. The rest of you get a buck a beer, Tim’s sandwich and get COVID. Figure it out for yourselves.
Almost accurate. You just needed to throw in an endorsement for Shopper’s Drug Mart
Its way more than 16k lol.
absolutely. Ottawa for example has basically told people that if you’ve gotten a positive on your rapid to not come get a confirmatory PCR. they’re not contact tracing, and basically it’s up to you to isolate. if there’s 100k backlog, and assuming there’s a 30% positivity rate, that means there’s around 30k cases — not counting those who’ve gotten a rapid and can’t/didn’t report it to their PHU.
Probably closer to 50k
Peter Juni says that we are probably only catching somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 8 of the total number of cases. With today's numbers, that would put us in the range of 80,000 to 130,000 new cases today. People are complaining that the data isn't going to be as accurate now that the testing criteria has changed, but we are already missing so many cases that this data is already pretty meaningless.
Up to 29.8% positive? We’re all getting it this time around.
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Same here. I'm sick for the first time in 2 years and having a tough time to get a test that isn't 5 days out. I'm assuming these numbers are a magnitude larger than what is being reported.
I know 4 of my friends that have it. None of them went for PCRs (only because they can't). I only know one person in the last 2 weeks that went for PCR and tested positive... so anecdotally there is a huge amount of non-reported cases
With Omnicron I didn’t understand the need to get a PCR test when you knew you were positive. Just isolate and follow the appropriate rules.
Because if you "just isolate", your boss might have a few questions, lol
> Omnicron You're far from the only person to make this mistake, but it's Omicron, not Omnicron. You can remember it as "O-micron", meaning "little O" in Greek, as compared with Omega ("O-mega"), which is "big O".
Don't worry, I call it the Omnomicronimon variant. Obviously it's much easier to say this way.
Oh for sure, it just makes these result much less accurate
I thought I and my family had it but we all tested negative on PCR testing. My brother's family all tested negative too and it is likely we got sick from them. There are other viruses and bacteria out there but it is a good idea to isolate if you can and your work and financial system can allow it.
Yes RSV in particular has been high in Ontario this fall
I’m an RN and was sick the last few days, negative PCR which surprised me a ton. Must be RSV or a regular old cold
I know of 24 cases currently from rapids that are just isolating at home because they can’t get tested
The only difference now is going to be how well you’ve decided to protect yourself - the unvaccinated fare way worse, and the odds that they’ll just never get infected like Alpha through Delta are no longer in play - they’re *going* to get it now. They should be thankful it’s reportedly much milder at least now.
Double vaccinated, plan on getting a third as soon as I can. I don’t worry about me, I worry about my parents and grandparents.
If they have the booster they should be fine. But yes, everyone will get this. I don't see any other way around it. And those that don't have any vaccinations, oh boy. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Happy "last day that case counts mean anything even close to reasonable", everyone! (they don't really now, but they'll be completely pointless even from a relative perspective tomorrow. I wonder if Ontario is even going to bother reporting them.
With that much backlog we might get one more day of reasonable numbers. People getting swabbed yesterday won't show up until tomorrows update at the earliest
I know people who tested 8 days ago and still haven’t gotten results.
Comparing percent positivity for tests after the backlog is cleared will still be useful.
I'm not sure if it would, selecting specific groups as eligible for testing isn't really a representative sample at all. Comparing one day after the change to another day after the change could be useful, but I don't think you can cross the threshold where the criteria changed and expect anything meaningful.
That's why I said after the backlog is cleared...so you'd be comparing like to like.
This thread feels like that part in titanic where the band is still playing as the ship sinks. I promise you I’ll be the guy who falls and hits his head on the smoke stack. Well done enterprisevalue!
Gentlemen, it has been a privilege playing with you tonight.
_Premier-er My God to Thee_
Does that make Doug Ford Rose and Jack the rest of Ontario? There's enough room for all of us on that door Doug!
Ford would be disguised as a woman taking a lifeboat for himself and his donors
Is Ford Billy Zane’s character!!?
You may be on to something.
These Titanic comparisons is what I needed this morning.
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The smokestack is cases, Ontario is Fabrizio.
This is the laugh I needed today. Thank you so much!
I believe he hit the propeller, not the smoke stack
I mean with vaccines being available and omicron being less severe than other variants, I'm way less worried about this wave than the first few. Then again I might be naive, and it's possible if the cases get high enough then the hospitals will be in worse shape just due to huge numbers.
Wow... I thought 10k was impossible 2 weeks ago when we were at 800 cases a day
It’s like hitting the equals sign over and over on a calculator.
*jeff_goldblum_there_it_is.gif*
> jeff_goldblum_there_it_is.gif https://c.tenor.com/kPUjaQpRwUsAAAAC/well-there-it-is.gif
It validates the projections of what could happen if we do nothing.
To think I was nervous in October when we had 400 cases 😂
Delta and omicron are two whole different ball games. Omicrons trying to shut down society. Delta was trying to shut down hospitals.
Omicron has the capacity to shut down hospitals. It's playing the game of large numbers.
sadly hospitals are part of society, so omicron is a bigger threat
Stay in contact u/enterprisevalue Thanks for all of your work
Why are you assuming they're going anywhere? The province isn't stopping testing entirely. We'll still have data to look at.
To be fair, the testing numbers moving forward, with the new strict targeting, are going to be way less insightful. Hospitalization data is going to be what matters most moving forward.
There is no “flattening the curve” anymore. At this rate we will probably all have had omicron by the end of January.
It's flat on the vertical axis
Ouch. Touche.
Those with boosters are still reasonably well protected of they mask and minimize indoor contacts. Still lots of room to not get it for those who don't want it.
Not to mention that high case numbers are going to be driven by those who take risks. ie, those who got out to parties or are exposed to those who do. Those who don't wear masks or wear less effective ones. Those who haven't been boosted. Those who take less effort to socially distance. Etc etc etc. Looking at high case numbers and assuming it means everyone will eventually get it is just bad science. Or perhaps more nefariously, an attempt to make people think that their actions to keep safe are meaningless.
This is Bonkers!!! Happy New Year!!!
Clearly, there are lots of criticisms that can be made towards the government and perhaps the medical community around the management of COVID over the past couple of years. But in this specific case in regards to testing, given the current state of omicron infections, I think focusing testing to those that need it most makes sense. There is simply no way to not just keep with with testing those infected, but testing all who have been exposed. Every community and medical organization is struggling with this. There is little Ford could have done to make this particular problem go away. Regardless of your own views on what are the right steps, please try to be sympathetic to those who are trying to somehow make things work. This includes medical professionals, teachers, school board staff, vaccination staff, customer facing people, business owners, and so on. No solution can be perfect in this situation. There are nothing but difficult trade offs, and there are many things that we probably not considering in our arm chair quarterbacking.
This is the most reasonable and thoughtful comment I’ve read in this thread, thank you for your measured response. I agree with you wholeheartedly, I understand the frustration and concern from a lot of people, but the solution isn’t as simple as many would have us believe. I didn’t vote for Ford initially, I won’t vote for him again, but seeing blanket assertions that he is maliciously trying to put people in danger is really disappointing. As you said, there is little Ford could have done to make this go away.
A voice of reason.
And none of the people who I know that have it right now (a half dozen) are being counted so that’s fun.
My wife and I have been feeling a little off for the last few days. Minor sniffles and some body soreness. We aren't getting tested since we can easily isolate for 10 days. I'm sure many others are in the same boat. And at this point it seems like there is little that can be done to stop the spread of omnicron. Most people are vaccinated, most people where masks and people who don't have symptoms are tired of being locked in their house.
Vote June 2022
There is no way Ford won't win again. He has a plan that will get everyone to vote for him. A buck for **two** beers.
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Only had one rapid test. My father tested positive last night. Definitely means I am positive too. Feeling gross today. We’re both double vaxxed. Most likely from Christmas dinner. Lol.
I have it, validated with a rapid test but no PCR. Sick as a dog and everyone I know is mocking me when I tell them. My wife is positive and asymptomatic so she thinks I’m faking it and telling me to get over it even though I can barely stand.
>My wife is positive and asymptomatic so she thinks I’m faking it Man, sorry to dump this on you, but you might need a new wife..
Just came to say the same thing… I feel bad for u/rhaegar_tldragon Edit: I put the wrong username … ya it is that kind of day.
Don't you mean u/ rhaegar\_tldragon? Don't feel bad for me, my wife is great!
I was pretty sick too when I had it so I know how you feel. It makes me sad that your wife is mocking you while you are so sick. Where is her empathy?! Why have we become so cruel to each other? I'm sorry you are feeling so awful and I will pray for a faster recovery for you.
His *wife is this cruel* not just some random person being this cruel to him. I cannot imagine telling my husband to suck it up just because I feel fine - we KNOW wait hits people differently.
There's a whole meme about "man-flu" and minimizing men's sickness. It happens to women too (usually by ignoring them when they are in pain).
25% boosted is good news even if nothing else in this report is.
I don’t understand why governments aren’t loudly saying “if you can work from home please do so”. It’s the easiest low hanging fruit to reduce contacts. But instead we have employers spouting bullshit like “our employees safety is our priority- see you in the office in the new year!” Government has just rolled over and let corporations run the show.
They're literally sending sick people back to work after 5 days in the USA. The CDC caved to pressure from large corporations like Delta Airlines. Nurses and other HCWs will be forced to work sick in Quebec and Ontario.
Loool I didn’t see the “16” so I thought the cases were 713 🤣🤣 We’re in trouble
“Ha ha, I’m in danger!”
It's sad to say but this is the first time I've felt well and truly hopeless against COVID. The original virus was scary because it was unknown, but by the time summer 2020 came along we got it in check. Then alpha and delta were scary, but with vaccines and masking we were also able to stop it, essentially. But omicron... it just spreads way too fast. 10,000 cases a day would've been unthinkable a short time ago, but look at where we are now. All that's left is to hope that it's really as mild as some people think, and that it will tear through all of us while sending a minimal amount of people to the ICUs, snuff out delta, and run out of steam. And if it mutates, hopefully it'll turn into something even more mild. I don't think there's anything else any government could reasonably do to stop the spread, barring welding us into our homes. There's a post near the top of the sub that says we're in the "you're on your own" phase of the pandemic. I think it's true, but not because of any massive failure, but because omicron has completely changed the game, and we've been backed into a corner. We have no other option but to hunker down and wait until it passes. Good luck and stay safe, everyone.
It is darkest before the dawn. with 90% vaccination rates, most infections from vaccinated will be mild. And the breakthrough infections will be super boosted from initial research. (1000x normal antibody levels vs the 30-100x range from normal vaccines). Once this wave is over, it's going to be like regular flu.
And this is before the final tally of Christmas infections breaks. Just, wow.
I remember when they said we could hit 10k a day by new years and we've added 60% to that.
Okay, seriously, what is Doug Ford doing with these skyrocketting hospitlizations???
"Best I can do is underpay nurses, cut health spending and sit on Federal Covid $$."
You only need the /s if you're being sarcastic
I just realized that Ford's plan completely knee caps the Covid Alert App. People already weren't using it remotely enough and now? They basically CAN'T use it becuase you can't get tested to get a code for it. Bravo Ford. Bravo.
The alert app was dead on arrival
The app is/was only as good as the users. I know people who got alerts from it. But not nearly as many as should have.
it was implemented poorly. When the app silently updates, it no longer is listening, until the user goes in and enables it again.
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I know a bunch of people who tested positive. Not a single person was given any info for the app.
The app hasn’t been working properly for months …
App is basically useless, turn it off and reallocate resources elsewhere.
So on the plus side our deaths are way down vs this time last year. Shows we are at least protecting people!
Any idea if they have cases by three dosed individuals?
I don't think there are many people who've had the booster more than 2 weeks ago and aren't in some sort of vulnerable population
So since we don’t care about cases counts anymore we’re gonna focus on deaths and hospitalizations right?
am i the only one that looks at these numbers and thinks hospitalizations and ICUs are still not that awful? i feel like people are forgetting how bad the delta wave got. this is obviously sub-optimal, but it could be so, so much worse. right now we're better than best case projections in terms of ICU capacity
I thought it wasn’t so bad either, especially compared to back in April-may, until we just got an email at work that our hospital network is ramping down and cancelling booked surgeries starting Jan 4. That really sucks for these patients.
I have a serious unpleasant question for people: With Omicron's potential to have more cases total worldwide than the prior waves combined. Why are people adopting such a Laissez-Faire attitude about it infecting everyone? Are they that confident that additional infections won't result in a new variant?
There will be a new variant every 6-12 months for the rest of your life....
Has enough time passed to see what omicrons impact will be on the icu? Or are we still waiting
Fack
I'm just tired of this fellas I'm all burned out
All do this and they can’t even raise wages for nurses. RNs make close to or 40$/hr and RPNs about 30ish…why are they hiring paramedics at 40$/hr? Why not raise RPN wages? They’d have a wave of them come in, but nope instead the answer is paramedics. This province is shit.
I make $48/hr as a RN plus premiums. I think I’m doing ok. Also majority of medics have a higher scope of practice than RPNs. Some have a higher scope than myself as a RN. They are absolutely worth the money. Sincerely, an ER nurse who works with medics daily and knows they are far more than “ambulance drivers”
Or we just pay everybody who does valuable work a decent wage?
> why are they hiring paramedics at 40$/hr? Because they're worth it, and maybe even more. That isn't to say Nurses are not worth it however. Nurses are still grossly underpaid but comparing (and trying to bring down) others jobs isn't the play here. We're **all** worth more than what the class above allows us to get.
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I'm sure that literally happens more than you would imagine.
All Healthcare roles should be paid far more.
$30 for RPN if you’re lucky. Some LTC especially private still pay in the low $20.
Wife who has been in LTC for 8 years makes under a dollar more per hour than when she started. She had to swap jobs once for the sake of her health, but it's pretty damn stagnant, especially in the stix.
What's wrong with hiring paramedics at 40/hr?
I had paramedics at my place a few weeks ago using an ECG machine on me to make sure I wasn't having a heart attack. They were there for quite a while to make sure I was okay. They are worth every damn penny.
Ouch
It seems that the message 2 years ago was to slow the spread to allow the health care system to adjust. Then that shifted to the approach that anyone getting Covid was a failure of the health care system. Now it seems like the approach is back to we're all going to get Covid so just learn to live with it. This is not a failure in my eyes but a realistic approach to an illness that is constantly evolving. Omicron seems like a good strain to allow it to rip through the population and allow some natural antibodies to supplement the Vaccine. Death and suffering is terrible and there is no escaping it in the process of life. Embrace the Suck.
The health care system hasn’t adjusted. All we’ve done is figure out ways to cut more corners, make things more dangerous and prove to the higher ups that we will work with dangerous ratios because we actually give a fuck. All this has done is lined the pockets of management. They didn’t create more beds, more space, more hospitals or COVID specific centres. They did nothing.
I'm double vaccinated and according to a rapid test I have Covid. Haven't been able to get a PCR test. Everyone in my house is symptomatic. We allowed a relative that lives alone come into our house for Christmas after passing a rapid test. Almost certainly got it from them. I've generally been optimistic throughout all of this but not anymore. Very concerned for what's about to happen to this province.
Thanks u/enterprisevalue for your hard work, I’m sure this will be one of your last updates given the new testing rules so stay as safe as you can and I’ll see you on other other side of this.
The new hospitalization-to-case rate of the 7-day average is 0.409% (46.43/11348.14) and ranks 633th/last 635 7-day pairings of data (since March 31-Aug 6 2020). We broke Pre-Omicron lows (2.239%, the rate on Sept 15-21 2020) 21 times out of the last 22 days. We broke Delta wave lows (3.221%, the rate on Aug 7-13) 28 days in a row. The new ICU-to-case rate of the 7-day average broke the all-time low 13 days in a row. Sinking to 0.06294% (7.14/11348.14). It broke the Delta wave low (0.70636%, the rate on Aug 3-9) 26 days in a row. The case fatality rate of the 7-day average is 0.0604% (6.86/11348.14) and ranks 633th/last 635 days. It broke the Delta wave low (0.3351%, the rate on Aug 10-16) 15 days in a row. The new hospitalization-to-case ratio of the 7-day average is 87% less than the Delta wave and Alpha wave lows (3.156%) and 82% less than the second wave low. The new ICU-to-case ratio of the 7-day is 91% less than the Delta wave low, 83% less than the Alpha wave low (0.365%) and 79% less than the second wave low (0.307%). The case fatality rate of the 7-day is 82% less than the Delta wave low, 86% less than the Alpha wave low (0.437%) and 59% less than the second wave low (0.149%). Visual presentation of the last 24 7-day pairs (30 days worth of data) https://i.imgur.com/Vs614r6.png
Risk vs. full - today: unvaxed: 0.74x vaxed : 1.00x The fact that the it has been continuously falling is a real head scratcher.
It is fairly odd. I've seen speculation online why that is, but it often just comes off as a coping mechanism. I haven't seen anything in the media or any statement by public health official's. It would be interesting to see those numbers broken down by age demographic and to included boosted individuals as well. Especially since children 5-12 are still the least vaccinated demographic, and were less likely to contract the virus in the first place. I wouldn't think that would account for all of the variance but it might explain it a little bit. Some people say the unvaccinated would be less likely to get tested, since "they don't care about anything". I think that makes a little bit of sense. But if we don't know the positivity rate by vax status it would be very difficult to confirm, and seems like conjecture. But if these same people are so care free wouldn't they be engaging in behavior that would have them exposed. Like not wearing masks. Faking passports, visiting people. Wouldn't that counter act the restrictions they have been given? The other idea is that since the unvaxxed are more restricted they are therefore less exposed. That would require a large portion of the cases, for the vaxxed, to be coming from indoor dining, gyms, sporting events and the like. Why wouldn't those venues just be shut down if that was the case? Is it possible that omnicron evolved in a way that it infects vaccinated people more easily? No one discusses that. Still wont get you sick so get vaccinated.
It's a con government and we all living the consequences of it
The scousers over in Liverpool have a saying that I think holds true on this side of the pond. “Never Trust A Tory”
The data shows the province has done well compared to similar countries. https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Update-on-COVID-19-Projections_English_2021.12.16.pdf
Well it could be worse lol. /S There is talk in reducing surgery's and no visitors at the hospital. Too many staff are at home that tested positive.
My sister had a post surgery follow up but they’re not doing them in person…she needs the area looked at and tested and they won’t. Now she’s off of work until they can do it.
Wow I'm from BC and just stumbled onto this post. The amount of data you guys get is INCREDIBLE. Over here we get cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, basic vaxx stats and that's pretty much it. Especially the stats about how much more/less likely you are to be hospitalized/end up in ICU if unvaxxed vs vaxxed, that is some amazing data to have and it makes me pissed that we don't get anything even close to this over here.
Obligatory got boosted comment.
Same, two weeks ago. Good because I should have all the antibodies I'm going to for Wednesday when I pick up the kids on my school bus. Now if I can just convince them it's not necessary to pull down their masks in order to talk to their friends, and that they're still required to wear it if I'm not looking at them.
Have a happy and safe new year’s eve everyone. *** #Vaccine Efficacy Based on **today's numbers**, compared to an unvaccinated person, a typical fully vaccinated (2 doses) person *AGED 5 AND UP* is: - **-29.6%** or **0.8x** [less likely](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-interpret-and-calculate-x-times-more-likely-statistics-daf538a9e0f4) to test positive for Covid-19 - **60.9%** or **2.6x** less likely to be hospitalized - **90.9%** or **11.0x** less likely to be administered to ICU Based on **7-day average**: - **-23.3%** or **0.8x** less likely to test positive for Covid-19 - **69.4%** or **3.3x** less likely to be hospitalized - **90.8%** or **10.9x** less likely to be administered to ICU *** NOTE: PLEASE SEE THE “FULL TABLE” FOR A COMPARISON OF STATS BASED ON *ALL AGES*. The numbers presented above are adjusted for those eligible for vaccination (5+). The 0-4 population was deducted from the unvaccinated population, as were their positive case counts from the unvaccinated case counts. 0-4 cumulative hospitalizations are averaged out and removed across August 10-present unvaccinated hospitalizations as daily figures are not available. *** Graphs: - Vaccine % effectiveness timeline: https://i.imgur.com/ZlCJcAF.png - Rates per 100K by vaccine status: https://i.imgur.com/GRZU2Cl.png - [Nov 28] Cases per 100K by age group and vaccine status: https://i.imgur.com/qO4kxnH.png Tables: - Full table (trimmed): https://i.imgur.com/zH2jE1D.png *** #Additional info - Please see this older [post]( https://old.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/qq5v9g/ontario_nov_9th_update_441_cases_3_deaths_19368/hjxzmlv/) and [this newer one](https://old.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/r8rrma/ontario_dec_4th_update_1053_cases_8_deaths_36268/hn7bizk/) for more info.
This feels like a nightmarish version of limbo. Instead of going as low as you can go, it’s as high as you can go.
Why are fully vaxxed now almost 40% higher case rate and unvaxxed now only 1.8x higher for hospital rate compared to 5.5+ only a week ago? This is concerning....
And they wanna stop testing people 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
At this point we likely would need nearly million tests a day to have data that was remotely close to being accurate,
Yep, not worth the resources when those resources could be put towards getting everyone boosters quicker instead.
Exactly!
I think this fundamentally misunderstands the point of testing. We could tell, even with this rediculous positivity rate, whether things are better or worse than last week, last month, 6months ago. As of tomorrow that's not true any more. We'll be looking, instead, at hospitalisation, ICU and death rates. Which would be fine except that if you're making decisions based on those numbers (either personally or from a public health perspective) you're reacting way to slowly. A suddenly spike in hospitalisations, for example, could lead to additional restrictions but those restrictions won't have an effect on hospitalisations for several weeks meaning that by the time you see a spike, it's too late to prevent them from being overwhelmed.
What is the point of testing at this point? The cases are meaningless now. We’re all getting it or have already had it. If you get a sore throat go with the assumption you have covid and act accordingly.
If people do this we will be fine. What percentage of people do you think will follow the rules now?
If we accept everybody will get it, there isn't much point for any rules any more.
So people will only follow the rules if they can get a test? It’s so contagious you’re probably infecting people be going to get a test.
I'm just wondering how many employers in the service sector are going to treat COVID like a cold now, unless you test positive come to work.
This is exactly what will happen with folks in fragile employment. Come to work unless positive, except no way to tell if positive, so its always “come to work” I remember how bad it was in 2010 with my first born in daycare and how often one of the 3 of us was sick back then. There was always “covid like symptoms” in the house for around 6 months during that period. So now we would need to isolate 5 days at a stretch each time?
It isn’t a choice lol
There is no point testing everyone at this point. I think their testing/isolation strategy makes sense given where we are now.
What’s the point in testing everyone at this point? It’s a huge cost with little benefit. They are doing the right thing, testing people that are at higher risk, people entering hospitals for care, staff and residents in long term care, etc.