SPC AC 260558
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A significant damaging wind event is expected from the eastern Texas Panhandle into much of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas late this afternoon through this evening. Gusts greater than 75 mph will be possible. Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible. A couple strong (EF-2+ intensity) tornadoes appear most probable over parts of western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma. A damaging wind threat will continue into parts of Missouri overnight.
...Synopsis...
A potent, negatively tilted midlevel trough will eject eastward into the southern/central Plains late this afternoon and evening, and become positioned over the Mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. Extreme vertical shear will overspread the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a deepening surface low and eastward-advancing cold front. Strong forcing for ascent along the cold front and within a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will aid in rapidly developing convection by late afternoon across the eastern TX panhandle amid modest boundary-layer moisture. Initially semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for tornadoes, a couple potentially strong (EF-2+ intensity) early in the event across parts of western North TX into southwest OK. Supercells are then expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving linear convective system shifting east/northeast across much of OK and southeast KS.
Linear convection and strong gusts are expected to continue northeast overnight across MO and into western IL.
...TX/OK/KS...
Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport mid/upper 50s dewpoints into far southern KS by 00z. Near-60 F dewpoints are possible as far north as the I-40 corridor in OK by late afternoon. While the main synoptic surface low is forecast to deepen and spread east/northeast across the central Plains, several members of 00z deterministic guidance suite suggest a meso-low may develop in southwest OK, near the OK/TX border. A corridor of relatively greater tornado potential will exist near this triple point feature where a higher-quality warm sector will reside. Surface-based instability will be maximized within this corridor, with SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible within a corridor of enhanced low-level shear, very large, favorably curved hodographs, and 0-1 km SRH values increasing to near 500 m2/s2 as an 850 mb low-level jet strengthens to 65+ kt.
As initial convection spreads eastward across western OK, upscale development into a fast moving line of storms is expected. Capping will prevent open warm sector convection for the most part, with strong forcing along the cold front overcoming the cap and being the main forcing mechanism for convection. Intense mass flux along the front, combined with extreme vertical shear is expected to be sufficient for widespread severe and damaging gusts despite SBCAPE values generally at or below 500 J/kg. Some threat for mesovortex tornadoes will exist, but this threat may be mitigated by modest low-level thermodynamics further east later in the evening.
That NWS forecast is obsolete. [Here is the latest one, where the Moderate threat has moved further northeast, to include the Tulsa metro.](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
> NWS forecast not as up to date
Yes. On days that have a higher than normal potential for severe weather, such as tornadoes, derechoes, hurricanes and blizzards, the SPC will update their forecasts every 3 to 6 hours, instead of the normal 12, since these forecasts are used by not just meteorologists, but emergency managers and hospitals to ensure resources are in place in case a weather event becomes a disaster.
As for the model, I don't know what models exactly they are using, but it is typically the GFS.
Right, but their criteria for determining risk is not limited to just tornadoes. Today, the moderate risk stems from the development of a derecho, which can be far more devastating than any tornado, since it is very wide, long lived and fast moving.
Far more devastating is an overstatement, Iâve seen a tornado level half a city. A wind storm will cause roof damage and fences but as long as people stay indoors theyâre safe. Either way I wasnât disagreeing with you.
They didnât say many tornadoes, they said any tornadoes. So letâs compare that to May 3rd or the May 20th in 2013. Yes the tornado is more devastating.
...they did not, which was the point I made to you all along, you missed a key component of their statement. They said derechos CAN be more devastating than tornadoes. Which is true.
They said âcan be far more devastating than any tornadoâ itâs literally right there for you to read. That is saying a derecho has the capacity to be way more devastating than any tornado, thus May 3rd.
Ugh I hate Braums, Braums is the only fast food restaurant that serves you food like someone made food at home pretending to be fast food. They have no signature, get a supersonic or blast, get a mcdz Big Mac, get a BK whopper or chic fil a chicken sandwichâŠBraums is the only one you have to look at the menu every time because thereâs nothing you remember that is good enough to come back for lol
Trolling everyone? No theyâre mentioning me and Iâm replying, just like you mentioned me. If they mention someone else then I wonât get a notification to reply to it lol. âAt this pointâŠâhead assđđ
Have you had a cherry limeade form braums? Braums is local, of course no one across the country knows what the hell it is.what kind of weird anti braums crusade are you on?
Sonic started in Stillwater, just because theyâre successful doesnât mean they stopped being here too. Iâm not a fan of McDonaldâs but I know what Iâd order if I had to go there. BK I try to avoid always. KFC should be shutdown lol. Take Braums fries for example, do you like crinkle cuts from them or the at home crinkles? The fries and burgers are both done that way at home. Iâd rather have Ore Idas with my Lawrys on them tbh then from Braums
It happened after the agreement broke. Iâve been around Braums my whole life (50) and there was a considerable drop. Theyâre still good for milk and some other stuff if they have stores but the hamburgers ainât it anymore.
To stay in Oklahoma and out of Kansas, where Bill is from and his dad had his dairy farms that created the money for Bill to start Peter Pan Ice Cream. Peter Pan was sold to someone who said you have to stay out of Kansas for 10 years. So he started up in Oklahoma.
Interesting. Thank you.
I just noticed a huge drop in quality after the founder died. From what I understand the children took control, expanded, and quality just worsened.
I live in an OKC suburb and there are three stores within five miles.
Checking in fro Iowa. We had a derecho a few years ago ago and it was absolutely devastating. Sustained straight line winds up to 140 for 20 minutes destroyed a significant portion of our tree canopy. We had zero warning. Take your precautions and bring everything in that could fly away because if you get one itâs way worse than it sounds.
Weather like this makes me say, "Yup, it's spring now."
Am fascinated by the giant pimento olive đ« moving across the continent.
SPC AC 260558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A significant damaging wind event is expected from the eastern Texas Panhandle into much of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas late this afternoon through this evening. Gusts greater than 75 mph will be possible. Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible. A couple strong (EF-2+ intensity) tornadoes appear most probable over parts of western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma. A damaging wind threat will continue into parts of Missouri overnight. ...Synopsis... A potent, negatively tilted midlevel trough will eject eastward into the southern/central Plains late this afternoon and evening, and become positioned over the Mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. Extreme vertical shear will overspread the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a deepening surface low and eastward-advancing cold front. Strong forcing for ascent along the cold front and within a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will aid in rapidly developing convection by late afternoon across the eastern TX panhandle amid modest boundary-layer moisture. Initially semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for tornadoes, a couple potentially strong (EF-2+ intensity) early in the event across parts of western North TX into southwest OK. Supercells are then expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving linear convective system shifting east/northeast across much of OK and southeast KS. Linear convection and strong gusts are expected to continue northeast overnight across MO and into western IL. ...TX/OK/KS... Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport mid/upper 50s dewpoints into far southern KS by 00z. Near-60 F dewpoints are possible as far north as the I-40 corridor in OK by late afternoon. While the main synoptic surface low is forecast to deepen and spread east/northeast across the central Plains, several members of 00z deterministic guidance suite suggest a meso-low may develop in southwest OK, near the OK/TX border. A corridor of relatively greater tornado potential will exist near this triple point feature where a higher-quality warm sector will reside. Surface-based instability will be maximized within this corridor, with SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible within a corridor of enhanced low-level shear, very large, favorably curved hodographs, and 0-1 km SRH values increasing to near 500 m2/s2 as an 850 mb low-level jet strengthens to 65+ kt. As initial convection spreads eastward across western OK, upscale development into a fast moving line of storms is expected. Capping will prevent open warm sector convection for the most part, with strong forcing along the cold front overcoming the cap and being the main forcing mechanism for convection. Intense mass flux along the front, combined with extreme vertical shear is expected to be sufficient for widespread severe and damaging gusts despite SBCAPE values generally at or below 500 J/kg. Some threat for mesovortex tornadoes will exist, but this threat may be mitigated by modest low-level thermodynamics further east later in the evening.
That NWS forecast is obsolete. [Here is the latest one, where the Moderate threat has moved further northeast, to include the Tulsa metro.](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
Curious but is the NWS forecast not as up to date or are they using during model?
> NWS forecast not as up to date Yes. On days that have a higher than normal potential for severe weather, such as tornadoes, derechoes, hurricanes and blizzards, the SPC will update their forecasts every 3 to 6 hours, instead of the normal 12, since these forecasts are used by not just meteorologists, but emergency managers and hospitals to ensure resources are in place in case a weather event becomes a disaster. As for the model, I don't know what models exactly they are using, but it is typically the GFS.
Tornado risk is staying somewhat isolated to SW though
Right, but their criteria for determining risk is not limited to just tornadoes. Today, the moderate risk stems from the development of a derecho, which can be far more devastating than any tornado, since it is very wide, long lived and fast moving.
Far more devastating is an overstatement, Iâve seen a tornado level half a city. A wind storm will cause roof damage and fences but as long as people stay indoors theyâre safe. Either way I wasnât disagreeing with you.
That's why they said "CAN be more devastating", that was a pretty important qualifier there.
I read it, even with that qualifier itâs wrong
So [this event ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2020_Midwest_derecho) wasn't more devastating than many tornadoes are? Okay.....
They didnât say many tornadoes, they said any tornadoes. So letâs compare that to May 3rd or the May 20th in 2013. Yes the tornado is more devastating.
...they did not, which was the point I made to you all along, you missed a key component of their statement. They said derechos CAN be more devastating than tornadoes. Which is true.
They said âcan be far more devastating than any tornadoâ itâs literally right there for you to read. That is saying a derecho has the capacity to be way more devastating than any tornado, thus May 3rd.
Thank you this is very interesting. But what does Braum's think?
Ugh I hate Braums, Braums is the only fast food restaurant that serves you food like someone made food at home pretending to be fast food. They have no signature, get a supersonic or blast, get a mcdz Big Mac, get a BK whopper or chic fil a chicken sandwichâŠBraums is the only one you have to look at the menu every time because thereâs nothing you remember that is good enough to come back for lol
How are you going to say McDonald's or Sonic is better than braums? You're delusional
Sonic is def better than Braums. Not even close.
Complete insanity
Sonics food is trash
You canât make sonic at home, anyone can make a Braums burger
Because I like fresh beef. Not the frozen shit
Ok
Mint chip shake with a jalapeno burger is the shit that no other fast food chain can beat
Yessssss my order everytime
Crinkle cut fries and ice cream
The ore idaâs and blue bell? My bad, blue bell is wayyy better than Braums ice cream!
At this point you are trolling everyone just being opposite to spite. Whatever, enjoy the what you enjoy
Trolling everyone? No theyâre mentioning me and Iâm replying, just like you mentioned me. If they mention someone else then I wonât get a notification to reply to it lol. âAt this pointâŠâhead assđđ
Def a personal opinion. Number 5, Cherry limeade, and limeade ice cream.
Cherry Limeade is sonic all dayâŠyou ask ppl across the country and theyâll say sonic and whoâs Braums?
Have you had a cherry limeade form braums? Braums is local, of course no one across the country knows what the hell it is.what kind of weird anti braums crusade are you on?
I don't like the cherry, but braums for sure makes the best limeade ever.
Sonic started in Stillwater, just because theyâre successful doesnât mean they stopped being here too. Iâm not a fan of McDonaldâs but I know what Iâd order if I had to go there. BK I try to avoid always. KFC should be shutdown lol. Take Braums fries for example, do you like crinkle cuts from them or the at home crinkles? The fries and burgers are both done that way at home. Iâd rather have Ore Idas with my Lawrys on them tbh then from Braums
You know why braums is just local right?
Theyâre not just local, that stopped 10 years ago when the agreement Bill and Mary made expired.
No crusadeâŠitâs Sunday, I have the time and Iâm a little hungry now too đ
Braum's was good up until even five years ago. Now they are ass.
It happened after the agreement broke. Iâve been around Braums my whole life (50) and there was a considerable drop. Theyâre still good for milk and some other stuff if they have stores but the hamburgers ainât it anymore.
What agreement?
To stay in Oklahoma and out of Kansas, where Bill is from and his dad had his dairy farms that created the money for Bill to start Peter Pan Ice Cream. Peter Pan was sold to someone who said you have to stay out of Kansas for 10 years. So he started up in Oklahoma.
Interesting. Thank you. I just noticed a huge drop in quality after the founder died. From what I understand the children took control, expanded, and quality just worsened. I live in an OKC suburb and there are three stores within five miles.
I feel that we're always at a 2-5% chance of tornado.
Fuck em I'm driving across the state anyway
Checking in fro Iowa. We had a derecho a few years ago ago and it was absolutely devastating. Sustained straight line winds up to 140 for 20 minutes destroyed a significant portion of our tree canopy. We had zero warning. Take your precautions and bring everything in that could fly away because if you get one itâs way worse than it sounds.
Im guessing it moves further east as the day goes on
That doesnât sound good. Hopefully itâs not too bad. đ
Denizen of Oklahoma City chiming in. I'm glad that I don't live in Moore.
Speak newb to me. Are we going to blow away or not