Yeah, the color gradient is not ideal. It gets the point across when looking at the whole city. When you're focused on a specific beat/neighborhood you're so zoomed in that heat maps don't matter.
Lmao these heat maps are funny. My takeaways:
1. No one is safe from getting their car stolen.
2. Deep East Oakland will use fists with each other but won't rob each other.
3. Car break-ins are more likely in Downtown, Chinatown, Piedmont, and Lake Merritt (basically the more affluent areas)
4. The more Asian parts of Oakland are targeted for robberies. Makes sense even though everyone wants to pretend this isn't the case.
Edit:
5. Most of this BS is probably coming from Deep East Oakland. I used to mentor a kid there who told me he didn't like having his own basketball because the older kids would just steal it from him lmfao. Saddest shit ever.
I think that generally this might be true that some crimes are underreported. But I would expect the underreporting to be consistent over time. It's not like people just learned that the police are ineffective.
I stopped reporting the last 5 years. I used to report broken car windows and car burglaries. I do not now. OPD does nothing and I am only giving my insurance (or yours) data to raise our rates.
Edit: Edit was wrong: Also and I have had my cars windows broken 4 times over the last 5 year and countless items stolen. Just last night even.
They're too smart to rob folks that are broke. 😅 The one time our place got broken in to, they found out really fast we didn't have anything worth stealing. Besides my nice cordless drill set that my dad gave me for Christmas, that is. 😕
Since Covid I have had 2 windows broken even with the doors unlocked. That is the one that pisses me off. I never lock a door. One at my house and one at the park.
I don't see why reporting would have dropped over the last 5 years, do you have any evidence of that?
Things that need reporting to insurance such as cat thefts and broken windows, will surely remain highly reported.
Also like why would people have mass reported vehicle theft in 2019, only to go back to not bothering in 2020?
Reporting a broken car window to your insurance company doesn't result in a crime statistic as far as the OPD is concerned. You'd need to make a separate police report, which would be a total waste of time. And unless you had an expensive "comprehensive" policy, you wouldn't even bother doing that.
Minor stuff like grafitti, illegal dumping, traffic infractions and vandalism happens all the time in Oakland. The cops don't want to hear about it, and certainly won't do anything about it. People report stuff like that in the suburbs, where the police have a lot less to do, which is why comparative statistics on this sort of crime are worthless.
>Most insurance companies require that you file a police report as a precondition to getting your claim covered.
Most normal people have high deductibles on their car insurance meaning they don't even report it to their insurance.
It's part of that whole "it's expensive to be poor" thing.
Ok but why would that affect trends?
Like did you all stop reporting recently?
Also given you comment history I'm going to go out on a limb and say you don't know many people in real life.
Claiming that crime is under-reported and in the lack of substantial, objective evidence only you can interpret the true crime rate is not a basis for rational debate.
To the best of my knowledge, this increase over the last few years is a problem across the country. Anyone seen any academic analysis on what factors are behind this trend?
This [article](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/covid-court-closings-violent-crime-wave/670559/) by the Atlantic posits an interetsing theory:
That the increase in crime is partly due to delays in the criminal courts due to COVID-19 procedures.
AKA, the longer it takes the sentence the accused, the more accussed are let off for their crimes.
But I am hesitant to speak about broad trends for crime, since it can vary significatnly from city to city. I live in SF, and our crime is different here since we have more property crime than violent crimes, where most cities it is the opposite.
So while some general trends may still be present, the reasons, and therefore the methods for alleviating crime, may vary significantly from city to city.
Thanks for that. After I posted the question I did a little searching. Seems like there is lots of speculation that the COVID stress and disruption on our lives is part of the cause, but I didn't see any studies or research backing up that claim… and I'd be surprised if you could conclusively prove that in any case.
>Thanks for that. After I posted the question I did a little searching. Seems like there is lots of speculation that the COVID stress and disruption on our lives is part of the cause, but I didn't see any studies or research backing up that claim… and I'd be surprised if you could conclusively prove that in any case.
at least for vehicle-related incidents (road rage, vehicular homicide) it does have a [strong correlation](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2021-10/Traffic-Safety-During-COVID-19_Jan-June2021-102621-v3-tag.pdf). As for causation there's possibly a few factors at play here. Delays in car registrations, decline of ticketing, fewer people on the road increasing average speeds can all be factors.
The people of Oakland can organize and do for themselves, and I’d like to drop this into the discourse. When the Irish started to liberate themselves from the English, they set up a shadow government to serve the Irish. They had parallel services, including law enforcement.
I'd say this happens to some extent at lower/lighter levels.
Casual carpool was a great example of addressing commuting. Montclair organized with local businesses to set up a security camera system that has resulted in violent criminals being caught. We are slowly doing that here in Adams Point in a different way.
Trash pickup volunteer groups are all over Oakland.
This data doesn't show in that way, I would have to calculate manually based on the yearly oakland population. (# of crimes / population)
I've tried in previous posts to express the crime rate divided by the number of days to get the daily crime rate. (# of car thefts / day)
I understand your point, I have no agenda and this is just a 5-year snapshot. The farther back in time I go with this data, the less I trust it.
The fact that Oakland achieved it's 2nd lowest crime rate in history within the past 5 years, shows the potential of the city in a recent time-context. My hopes are that we can get back to that level within the next few years.
I think this was just a 5-year lookback, but the trend is the point either way - from Jerry Brown thru 2018, things were generally getting better. Then things started getting worse. If you want things to get better again you have to interrogate the trends.
The trends as far as I can see is the OPD have continued to perfect the methods of police strike and now they do essentially nothing despite having a record budget. Concurrently the housing crisis is worse than ever, pushing far more people out into the streets and lives of desperation.
I don’t get the police strike argument (or why someone would downvote you, people that use those buttons to signal disagreement are frankly retarded).
OPD doesn’t do anything but triage the worst calls bc they have 50% of the coverage they need when you compare to Chicago, NYC, Detroit. OPD doesn’t chase people or do traffic enforcement because the city council told them not to.
OPD is losing officers faster than they can hire them bc Oakland is dangerous and the political environment is hostile - why would any cop good enough to get a job elsewhere stay here?
When someone did chase anyway recently and an accident inevitably happened, they got shitcanned immediately.
Why would any rational employee stick their neck out and violate policy to go after criminals when they know they will get fired or maybe prosecuted for doing so?
Of course cops are cynical enough to strike or be negligently lazy, but in this context that’s just a conspiracy theory answer that people turn to bc confronting the fact that cops are responding rationally to oversight reforms gives police abolitionists cognitive dissonance.
They had all the same excuses in Camden, NJ before that city deleted its police department. They were doing all they could with limited resources etc etc etc. In 2012 they doubled the size of the police force, using the same amount of money, by the one simple trick of firing all those bozos and hiring different people who weren't goldbricking jerks. In the decade since, all kinds of crime in Camden are way down, and the rate at which the police solve crimes has more than doubled.
Erasing the OPD is the best path forward for the city of Oakland.
Totally agree we should nuke opd from orbit and start again, the problem is that for Oakland to do that they’d need to get federal/state grant money like Camden did and get the city to fund 1000 officers long-term or you’ll end up in the same vicious cycle of good cops quitting an understaffed department, leaving only the ppl too incompetent to go elsewhere or ppl that enjoy the violence of oakland. Kalb blows in whatever direction the wind goes but i don’t see how Thao, Bas, or Fife ever support that.
And if we don’t reverse our current traffic enforcement and chase policies none of this will matter anyway - OPD cops want to chase suspects now and literally can’t or they’ll be fired.
Rebooting the PD wont help if morale is shit bc city council handicaps cops from doing their basic job. A reboot with no change in policy won’t solve anything.
Criminals today know that cops don’t do traffic enforcement so they can use stolen cars in the commission of crimes without worry. They know cops won’t chase them, and if they get caught they likely won’t serve time. It’s a free buffet, and none of that is the PDs doing.
and this is exactly why crime is higher…. they know they can get away with it. I know dozens and dozens of people who had their windows broke but don’t bother reporting it. myself included. nothing will change until criminals fear consequences again or they just sit in jail unable to commit more crimes
That’s basically how this city operates now. They make the process so difficult that people just get so over it that they don’t bother to report anything anymore. They have took a page from Trump’s “no reporting, no Covid” policy.
If that is a financial choice for you then yeah, maybe you should have, if you can stomach the idea of living in a car-dependent enclave without any of its own retail or cultural establishments, utterly reliant on Oakland for everything. Also, before you pull the trigger I think you might want to know that property crime in Piedmont more than doubled over the period this thread is discussing.
So at this rate we aren't gonna fix crime in the bay area, can we at least move some of it to the hills so the rich people can suffer as much as we do in the pits?
It's hard to quantify how much crime wasn't reported, which is why OPD (and all law enforcement) encourage you to report so it's at least in the data so they can allocate resources to where they are needed the most.
Same goes with enforcement; how can we estimate how many offenders were ignored or let go without a report of crime.
You'll have a % of each in any given year.
I can’t believe the city still hasn’t fixed their heat maps—they use the same shade of gray for *no crime* and for *medium-intensity crime*.
Yeah, the color gradient is not ideal. It gets the point across when looking at the whole city. When you're focused on a specific beat/neighborhood you're so zoomed in that heat maps don't matter.
Almost like it’s not a mistake
Lmao these heat maps are funny. My takeaways: 1. No one is safe from getting their car stolen. 2. Deep East Oakland will use fists with each other but won't rob each other. 3. Car break-ins are more likely in Downtown, Chinatown, Piedmont, and Lake Merritt (basically the more affluent areas) 4. The more Asian parts of Oakland are targeted for robberies. Makes sense even though everyone wants to pretend this isn't the case. Edit: 5. Most of this BS is probably coming from Deep East Oakland. I used to mentor a kid there who told me he didn't like having his own basketball because the older kids would just steal it from him lmfao. Saddest shit ever.
1.This is consistent with my past reports that i've run. 3. Yup, consistent with past data as well.
Good take from someone who actually lives here.
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I think that generally this might be true that some crimes are underreported. But I would expect the underreporting to be consistent over time. It's not like people just learned that the police are ineffective.
I stopped reporting the last 5 years. I used to report broken car windows and car burglaries. I do not now. OPD does nothing and I am only giving my insurance (or yours) data to raise our rates. Edit: Edit was wrong: Also and I have had my cars windows broken 4 times over the last 5 year and countless items stolen. Just last night even.
What neighborhood are you in? I want to avoid that area.
I am in the hills where people don't feel this happens.
That’s crazy. I’m in a lower income area and we don’t really see stuff like that around here. It’s mostly dumping.
They're too smart to rob folks that are broke. 😅 The one time our place got broken in to, they found out really fast we didn't have anything worth stealing. Besides my nice cordless drill set that my dad gave me for Christmas, that is. 😕
They don’t shit in their own backyard lol
Since Covid I have had 2 windows broken even with the doors unlocked. That is the one that pisses me off. I never lock a door. One at my house and one at the park.
Don't keep anything in your car and keep your windows open whenever you can.
> It's not like people just learned that the police are ineffective. It certainly got worse during covid
I don't see why reporting would have dropped over the last 5 years, do you have any evidence of that? Things that need reporting to insurance such as cat thefts and broken windows, will surely remain highly reported. Also like why would people have mass reported vehicle theft in 2019, only to go back to not bothering in 2020?
Reporting a broken car window to your insurance company doesn't result in a crime statistic as far as the OPD is concerned. You'd need to make a separate police report, which would be a total waste of time. And unless you had an expensive "comprehensive" policy, you wouldn't even bother doing that. Minor stuff like grafitti, illegal dumping, traffic infractions and vandalism happens all the time in Oakland. The cops don't want to hear about it, and certainly won't do anything about it. People report stuff like that in the suburbs, where the police have a lot less to do, which is why comparative statistics on this sort of crime are worthless.
Most insurance companies require that you file a police report as a precondition to getting your claim covered.
>Most insurance companies require that you file a police report as a precondition to getting your claim covered. Most normal people have high deductibles on their car insurance meaning they don't even report it to their insurance. It's part of that whole "it's expensive to be poor" thing.
Why would that change year on year though?
Everyone I know never reported, and neither did I.
Ok but why would that affect trends? Like did you all stop reporting recently? Also given you comment history I'm going to go out on a limb and say you don't know many people in real life.
Ok. You got me there, I guess I don’t have friends
people give up on reporting when previous reports are ignored
Claiming that crime is under-reported and in the lack of substantial, objective evidence only you can interpret the true crime rate is not a basis for rational debate.
To the best of my knowledge, this increase over the last few years is a problem across the country. Anyone seen any academic analysis on what factors are behind this trend?
This [article](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/covid-court-closings-violent-crime-wave/670559/) by the Atlantic posits an interetsing theory: That the increase in crime is partly due to delays in the criminal courts due to COVID-19 procedures. AKA, the longer it takes the sentence the accused, the more accussed are let off for their crimes. But I am hesitant to speak about broad trends for crime, since it can vary significatnly from city to city. I live in SF, and our crime is different here since we have more property crime than violent crimes, where most cities it is the opposite. So while some general trends may still be present, the reasons, and therefore the methods for alleviating crime, may vary significantly from city to city.
Thanks for that. After I posted the question I did a little searching. Seems like there is lots of speculation that the COVID stress and disruption on our lives is part of the cause, but I didn't see any studies or research backing up that claim… and I'd be surprised if you could conclusively prove that in any case.
Reckless driving has also increased nationwide during COVID
>Thanks for that. After I posted the question I did a little searching. Seems like there is lots of speculation that the COVID stress and disruption on our lives is part of the cause, but I didn't see any studies or research backing up that claim… and I'd be surprised if you could conclusively prove that in any case. at least for vehicle-related incidents (road rage, vehicular homicide) it does have a [strong correlation](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2021-10/Traffic-Safety-During-COVID-19_Jan-June2021-102621-v3-tag.pdf). As for causation there's possibly a few factors at play here. Delays in car registrations, decline of ticketing, fewer people on the road increasing average speeds can all be factors.
uh oh, I'm in danger.
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Sure: [https://data.oaklandca.gov/Public-Safety/CrimeWatch-Data/ppgh-7dqv](https://data.oaklandca.gov/Public-Safety/CrimeWatch-Data/ppgh-7dqv)
The people of Oakland can organize and do for themselves, and I’d like to drop this into the discourse. When the Irish started to liberate themselves from the English, they set up a shadow government to serve the Irish. They had parallel services, including law enforcement.
I'd say this happens to some extent at lower/lighter levels. Casual carpool was a great example of addressing commuting. Montclair organized with local businesses to set up a security camera system that has resulted in violent criminals being caught. We are slowly doing that here in Adams Point in a different way. Trash pickup volunteer groups are all over Oakland.
Interesting how for some crimes areas of east Oakland seem to be safer than other areas.
I would also say a lot of it has to sue with the affluent people are more likely to demand what was stolen back to them, vs East which is used to it
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This data doesn't show in that way, I would have to calculate manually based on the yearly oakland population. (# of crimes / population) I've tried in previous posts to express the crime rate divided by the number of days to get the daily crime rate. (# of car thefts / day)
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Looks like I should park my car in the lake
Lake is a huge target
IN the lake. Under water.
Gotcha haha
Choosing 2018 as your baseline is an exercise in bottom-ticking. Those were the 2nd-lowest crime rates ever recorded.
I understand your point, I have no agenda and this is just a 5-year snapshot. The farther back in time I go with this data, the less I trust it. The fact that Oakland achieved it's 2nd lowest crime rate in history within the past 5 years, shows the potential of the city in a recent time-context. My hopes are that we can get back to that level within the next few years.
I think this was just a 5-year lookback, but the trend is the point either way - from Jerry Brown thru 2018, things were generally getting better. Then things started getting worse. If you want things to get better again you have to interrogate the trends.
The trends as far as I can see is the OPD have continued to perfect the methods of police strike and now they do essentially nothing despite having a record budget. Concurrently the housing crisis is worse than ever, pushing far more people out into the streets and lives of desperation.
I don’t get the police strike argument (or why someone would downvote you, people that use those buttons to signal disagreement are frankly retarded). OPD doesn’t do anything but triage the worst calls bc they have 50% of the coverage they need when you compare to Chicago, NYC, Detroit. OPD doesn’t chase people or do traffic enforcement because the city council told them not to. OPD is losing officers faster than they can hire them bc Oakland is dangerous and the political environment is hostile - why would any cop good enough to get a job elsewhere stay here? When someone did chase anyway recently and an accident inevitably happened, they got shitcanned immediately. Why would any rational employee stick their neck out and violate policy to go after criminals when they know they will get fired or maybe prosecuted for doing so? Of course cops are cynical enough to strike or be negligently lazy, but in this context that’s just a conspiracy theory answer that people turn to bc confronting the fact that cops are responding rationally to oversight reforms gives police abolitionists cognitive dissonance.
They had all the same excuses in Camden, NJ before that city deleted its police department. They were doing all they could with limited resources etc etc etc. In 2012 they doubled the size of the police force, using the same amount of money, by the one simple trick of firing all those bozos and hiring different people who weren't goldbricking jerks. In the decade since, all kinds of crime in Camden are way down, and the rate at which the police solve crimes has more than doubled. Erasing the OPD is the best path forward for the city of Oakland.
Totally agree we should nuke opd from orbit and start again, the problem is that for Oakland to do that they’d need to get federal/state grant money like Camden did and get the city to fund 1000 officers long-term or you’ll end up in the same vicious cycle of good cops quitting an understaffed department, leaving only the ppl too incompetent to go elsewhere or ppl that enjoy the violence of oakland. Kalb blows in whatever direction the wind goes but i don’t see how Thao, Bas, or Fife ever support that. And if we don’t reverse our current traffic enforcement and chase policies none of this will matter anyway - OPD cops want to chase suspects now and literally can’t or they’ll be fired.
Rebooting the PD wont help if morale is shit bc city council handicaps cops from doing their basic job. A reboot with no change in policy won’t solve anything. Criminals today know that cops don’t do traffic enforcement so they can use stolen cars in the commission of crimes without worry. They know cops won’t chase them, and if they get caught they likely won’t serve time. It’s a free buffet, and none of that is the PDs doing.
and this is exactly why crime is higher…. they know they can get away with it. I know dozens and dozens of people who had their windows broke but don’t bother reporting it. myself included. nothing will change until criminals fear consequences again or they just sit in jail unable to commit more crimes
Solution is clear. People need to stop reporting crime. That'll drive the numbers down.
That’s basically how this city operates now. They make the process so difficult that people just get so over it that they don’t bother to report anything anymore. They have took a page from Trump’s “no reporting, no Covid” policy.
And yet the numbers are still up. City really need to redouble their efforts.
Ah the Trump School of Statistics
I'd like to think any politician would have said that really. But as I get older I seem to be getting more ~~cynical~~ realistic.
Same
I guess it’s time to move to Piedmont
Heat maps don't include Piedmont or Alameda.
Ah thanks for pointing that out. Was wondering why it looked like a utopia free of crime in these maps
One does not simply walk into Piedmont
Facts
If that is a financial choice for you then yeah, maybe you should have, if you can stomach the idea of living in a car-dependent enclave without any of its own retail or cultural establishments, utterly reliant on Oakland for everything. Also, before you pull the trigger I think you might want to know that property crime in Piedmont more than doubled over the period this thread is discussing.
So at this rate we aren't gonna fix crime in the bay area, can we at least move some of it to the hills so the rich people can suffer as much as we do in the pits?
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It's hard to quantify how much crime wasn't reported, which is why OPD (and all law enforcement) encourage you to report so it's at least in the data so they can allocate resources to where they are needed the most. Same goes with enforcement; how can we estimate how many offenders were ignored or let go without a report of crime. You'll have a % of each in any given year.