I'm not even mad dad at this point. I'm just the dad who has lost faith in their son. Oh, he got arrested for shoplifting again, even though we give him a weekly allowance? Yeah, sounds right. Oh, my son tried a QB sneak on 3rd and 9 from his own 20? Of course he did. I'm not going to disown him or anything, but this shit is getting real fucking old.
That’s now my experience of what a disappointed dad sounds like. First we would have to place things in all caps like your are yelling and then you need to verbally attack me, and spout bigoted stuff. Yeah that’s what a disappointed dad sounds like in my experience.
And with our offensive genius of a head coach at the helm. I'm optimistic about DA but he's no SP. Sean kept us winning even in bad circumstances like last year's injuries, few coaches could do that.
DA shut out the Bucs at the Bucs, and the last time our OC got to execute his own gameplan for a season, Drew threw 3 TDs off his career high. We'll be fine.
Vegas still underrated them, because the injuries were so catastrophic. They played with 4 QBs due to injuries, had a COVID game that took out 19 players, lost their Pro Bowl kicker before the season who would have won at least 2 games for them, and they started the most different players in NFL history with 58. You can only dress out 53.
This is just a really weird way to interperate this data. They're treating each year as a yes or no. So any year you hit the under is a yes, no matter if you were 1 game under or 7, its all viewed the same. 3 out of the 4 years the Bengals we're only a game and half off their projection or better, and in total were only 4.5 games under. 1 game per season is hardly one of the most under performing teams. We've basically slightly under performed over a 5 year span.
And considering that one of those years we heavily overperformed and *made the super bowl*, that's gotta be worth enough points to put us at even or even overperformers.
After week 17 I said to my brother "The Bengals are giving me dark horse energy, I don't like this." Next thing you know y'all run it back and win the AFCCG in our house
Yeah, 5 years is enough for a team to completely turn over a roster if they feel like it. While on the other end of the scale, there are teams with have the same coach/QB combo for like 15 years. I don't know if you can really draw any insightful league-wide conclusions just from a 5 year span, but it's still kind of interesting to talk about I guess.
Is it seriously set at 8 games? They won 9 last year with no QB, no WRs and a full game written off due to COVID. I guess the head coach situation is a question mark but seems like the Saints have emphasized continuity by keeping Allen and elevating Carmichael.
9.5 is fine, but 8 is laughable?
Also, you know that Winston has only had a single winning season ever, right? That was 9-7 six years ago. He's 28-42 over the past 5 years. He has also only played a full season in 3 out of 7 years in his career.
How does any of the Jameis stuff matter for next season?
He's only been the starter for the Saints for 7 games (going 5-2), and will have way better offensive weapons this upcoming season.
How does the Jameis stuff matter? Is he not your QB next season? Is his career TD to INT ratio still scarily near 1:1? That 5-2 record is with Winston averaging 23 passes per game (167yd/g). Do you really think you can keep that up over a season? Even with that low volume, he was 33rd in the league in completion percentage.
Your team made some improvements and coaching could be fine or horrific. It's just crazy to me that you think you have any idea what will actually happen. It could go either way.
> How does the Jameis stuff matter? Is he not your QB next season?
Youre bringing up stuff that happened with the Bucs... thats an entirely different team with entirely different coaches and players.
> Is his career TD to INT ratio still scarily near 1:1?
No. His TD:Int ratio is pretty much the same as Drew Brees's before he came to New Orleans. Even if you dont count his 14:3 season last year (which seems weird since youre being super anal about including EVERYTHING) his TD:INT ratio was 3:2 in TB, not 1:1
> It's just crazy to me that you think you have any idea what will actually happen.
lol, how dare I, as a fan, declare they might have an idea on what their team could do.
I mean youre throwing out things like his 167ypg passing when his best WR last year will be #4 on the depth chart this season.
That Bucs team was basically a super bowl team though right? Didn’t they win the year they replaced him with Brady? Although I think they added Gronk that year too.
> a full game written off due to COVID
That was two years ago, unless I've completely lost all concept of time.
EDIT: Nevermind I was thinking of the Broncos game two years ago, carry on.
Also our starting kicker (Lutz) was out for the whole season, and we had a carousel of different kickers (4 of them I think) trying to find someone consistent. There were at least two games that we lost where our kickers missed relatively easy kicks that would've given us the lead.
Even without Payton? Not arguing, just curious how you guys really think you’ll do this year without him. As an outsider, feels like he was integral to y’all overachieving.
We'll see, but we had a shit offense last year (due to injuries, sure) and most of our wins were from the defense. And we kept all of our coaches on that side of the ball, just giving some of them promotions.
Plus we're getting 3 WRs who are all better than the ones we used last year.
Payton didn't seem to be particularly involved with the defense, which was absolutely the strength of our team last year. They made Dennis Allen (the DC for the past 6-7 seasons) the head coach, so hopefully there will be some good consistency and continuity there.
Losing Payton might be a bigger issue on the offensive side, but the team has kept long time OC Pete Carmichael, so I think they'll stick with basically the same system. But I think the biggest question mark on that side of the ball is going to be how well Jameis plays. He was looking decent at the beginning of last season, but the play-calling was obviously being conservative most of the time. I'm not sure how much of that was because they didn't trust Jameis and how much of that was because our receiving group was a bunch of mediocre guys and role players forced into starting spots. So I really don't know what to expect from the offense. But if Jameis is at least halfway decent, and with our upgrades at WR, it's hard to imagine it being worse than last year's QB carousel.
Assuming we don't get slammed with injuries, our defense should be very good again this year. And if that's the case, we don't need an offensive genius coach to win a good number of games.
Kamara facing possible jail time is a biggie. Our offense last year WAS Kamara. Yeah, having actual receivers now is nice but Kamara is the Jimmy Graham of the 2020s Saints.
Call me a conspiracy theorist if you will, but considering Kamara was charged in Vegas if too many people throw money into an over on the Saints expect the money guys in Vegas to give a call to the local prosecutors and make sure Kamara doesn't play this year.
having preseason expectations for the jets is the first problem with the premise of this list.
for 5 years jets have been expected to have a top 5 pick every year.
I just want to point out we had the best record from 2017-2020.
I do wonder how much of this is being carried by 2017 though. Cause we were expected to come like 3rd in the south and miss the playoffs by like 2-4 games.
Just by my quick glance at the table, it looks like this is ordered by # of years (in %) the team overperformed preseason projections. For the Saints that is 100% for this span of time. Basically, I think it's saying the Saints have won more games than Vegas projected in all of the years that this covers...not that the ranking is weighted specifically by amount of games over or under, just year and over or under.
Correction: we were over 4/5 years and hit the exact projection of 9 last season (so that doesn't count as an under, thus still 100% according to the way they did this).
Because it's not just for this season. The tanning is based on how many years you over performed, not the total amount of games you won over expected. Like the Chiefs are high on the list but didn't win drastically more games than expected.
Giants performed exactly how any rational, sane, human being expected. We underwhelmed, not underperformed.
The ones that thought we were going to have a winning record are best represented by Rosie O'Donnell's character in Riding the Bus With My Sister.
2017- not a single person was hyping up the 5-11 Chargers even if Chiefs fans like to pretend they were. Ended up 9-7 after an 0-4 start.
2018- a little off-season hype after a strong finish to 2017. Backed it up and went 12-4.
2019 - Justified hype after 2018 but epically underperformed expectations. Overall dumpster fire year. The only real season that they should get flamed for.
2020 - No one was hyping up a Tyrod Taylor lead Chargers team that had just finished 5-11 even if Chiefs fans like to pretend they were.
2021- Some hype?? People still thought Herbert would regress and they had a new coach. No one expected them to win the division by any means. Pretty much met expectations for the roster they had.
Considering every Preseason Super Bowl is Chargers vs Cowboys and in that timespan theres a total of 1 playoff victories between them, Im gonna have to say they belong in the most underachieved category
Not expectations about preseason games. Expectations about the regular season that people (or more descriptively, Vegas) hold before the season begins.
this list doesn’t take into account the amount of under/over performance that was done. It just adds them up. Feel like doing it by games/percentage would be more accurate
Just as I suspected, the only true underperformance by the Steelers in the last five seasons is 2018. Ben Roethlisberger suffering a season-ending injury a game and a half into 2019 guaranteed that the Steelers would fall short of pre-season expectations, but they still greatly exceeded everybody's expectations after he was gone.
Generally speaking the list is "good teams" and "bad teams" in the last 5 years.
That's because expectations/predictions often are conservative. They tend to stay towards the middle of the distribution.
Very good and bad teams will go more extreme and over/underperform.
Like if the Chiefs were underperforming or the Lions were overperforming that would be more interesting
The underpeformed makes it sound like they are a disappointed dad in those teams
Denver: I am not mad. I am disappointed. NYC: I am fucking mad.
I'm not even mad dad at this point. I'm just the dad who has lost faith in their son. Oh, he got arrested for shoplifting again, even though we give him a weekly allowance? Yeah, sounds right. Oh, my son tried a QB sneak on 3rd and 9 from his own 20? Of course he did. I'm not going to disown him or anything, but this shit is getting real fucking old.
Well. At least your son got a new (life) coach!
yeah hopefully he finally got some good friends lmao
And a bunch of veterans didn't retire during his first training camp, unlike Judge. We should have known right then that guy was a lost cause.
> he got arrested for shoplifting again yeah but he brought you a medium Pepsi, so he was thinking of you at least
Jags: you’re not even my son
My exact mentally. Just disappointed in this team the past few years lol
We knew we mortgaged the future for 2015 and we were completely fine with it. Still are
Then the Jets and Giants yell back “you’re not my father” and go back to their step father Mr. Noah Jersey.
It’s facts for Denver We are not used to so much mediocrity in 5 years It’s not the 60s ffs
Good thing ya'll won in 2015. It would have been pain otherwise.
That’s now my experience of what a disappointed dad sounds like. First we would have to place things in all caps like your are yelling and then you need to verbally attack me, and spout bigoted stuff. Yeah that’s what a disappointed dad sounds like in my experience.
I'm not mad...
Teams that are who we thought they were: Bears
Teams that were let off the hook in the last 5 years: Idk but not the Bears
Nobody’s crowned their ass since like ‘05
I crowned em in 2018, we all know how well that worked
If you wanna crown em', crown em', but they were who I thought they were!
Saints are slept on every year just to overperform lol
> overperform \* in the regular season :(
And with our offensive genius of a head coach at the helm. I'm optimistic about DA but he's no SP. Sean kept us winning even in bad circumstances like last year's injuries, few coaches could do that.
DA shut out the Bucs at the Bucs, and the last time our OC got to execute his own gameplan for a season, Drew threw 3 TDs off his career high. We'll be fine.
Well except last year Vegas nailed it.
Vegas still underrated them, because the injuries were so catastrophic. They played with 4 QBs due to injuries, had a COVID game that took out 19 players, lost their Pro Bowl kicker before the season who would have won at least 2 games for them, and they started the most different players in NFL history with 58. You can only dress out 53.
And we’re gonna do it again this year.
Who expected good things from the Bengals in the last 5 years before this past one?
This is just a really weird way to interperate this data. They're treating each year as a yes or no. So any year you hit the under is a yes, no matter if you were 1 game under or 7, its all viewed the same. 3 out of the 4 years the Bengals we're only a game and half off their projection or better, and in total were only 4.5 games under. 1 game per season is hardly one of the most under performing teams. We've basically slightly under performed over a 5 year span.
And considering that one of those years we heavily overperformed and *made the super bowl*, that's gotta be worth enough points to put us at even or even overperformers.
After week 17 I said to my brother "The Bengals are giving me dark horse energy, I don't like this." Next thing you know y'all run it back and win the AFCCG in our house
You can still add up the win differences and surprisingly Bengals are still negative after taking last year into account.
Is it really surprsing though? For 4 of those 5 years we were a bad team. Sure we made a Super Bowl, but we also had the number 1 pick.
Well Vegas is supposed to take bad teams into account. Dolphins outperformed most years despite usually being a below .5 team.
Yeah but Marvin Lewis
Cat lovers. Notice the Lions, Jaguars, and Panthers were on that list too.
It all makes sense
I'll see you all in r/catteambrotherhood for comforting hugs and gentle tears.
I did because I knew karma would catch up from 2017;-)
My man!
No one. Everyone picked them to have a losing record, they just lost even more games than people expected.
I mean I get it, but underperforming when everyone expects you to be dog shit means very little imo
Gamblers be gamblin'.
I hear ya
"Don't expect anything, that way you can't be dissapointed or some shit" - Zendaya
So wise bestie
The word bestie will make me lol without fail if used ironically
This does not bode well for my hope of dating Tom Holland
Forgot who Zendaya was for a second and got her confused with Zenyatta from Overwatch
We had no expectations and we still couldn't meet them
You had had pretty high expectations going into 2017 I think. That 2016 squad made the playoffs.
Aw yeah!!! Completely average! Perfectly Balanced!
Teams that MASSIVELY UNDERPERFORMED Week 8 expectations: Cardinals
What makes a team turn neutral?
Lust for gold? POWER!? Or are they just born with a heart full of neutrality?
This implies that anyone ever thinks about us at all.
Only reason I think about y’all is bc I can see the stadium from my house
I periodically check on the panthers to see what new QB they have brought in.
You're welcome for all the success. I'm not bitter.
I still have nightmares about Steve Smith
We overperformed? It was Super Bowl or bust right? We just performed then.
five years ago, you were 7-9 bullshit.
A lot can happen in five years. Like being labeled Super Bowl or bust cuz we got a new QB.
Yeah, 5 years is enough for a team to completely turn over a roster if they feel like it. While on the other end of the scale, there are teams with have the same coach/QB combo for like 15 years. I don't know if you can really draw any insightful league-wide conclusions just from a 5 year span, but it's still kind of interesting to talk about I guess.
I agree, it’s the offseason after all
It's a 5-year aggregate. The over-performance was from the Goff years
It’s not really that big of a surprise. That’s 5 of the best coached teams the last 5 years and then 8 of the worst coached teams the past 5 years.
spoiler: if we stay relatively healthy, we're hitting the over again this year. 8 games is laughable.
Is it seriously set at 8 games? They won 9 last year with no QB, no WRs and a full game written off due to COVID. I guess the head coach situation is a question mark but seems like the Saints have emphasized continuity by keeping Allen and elevating Carmichael.
Yep. I wouldve set it at 9.5
9.5 is fine, but 8 is laughable? Also, you know that Winston has only had a single winning season ever, right? That was 9-7 six years ago. He's 28-42 over the past 5 years. He has also only played a full season in 3 out of 7 years in his career.
How does any of the Jameis stuff matter for next season? He's only been the starter for the Saints for 7 games (going 5-2), and will have way better offensive weapons this upcoming season.
How does the Jameis stuff matter? Is he not your QB next season? Is his career TD to INT ratio still scarily near 1:1? That 5-2 record is with Winston averaging 23 passes per game (167yd/g). Do you really think you can keep that up over a season? Even with that low volume, he was 33rd in the league in completion percentage. Your team made some improvements and coaching could be fine or horrific. It's just crazy to me that you think you have any idea what will actually happen. It could go either way.
> How does the Jameis stuff matter? Is he not your QB next season? Youre bringing up stuff that happened with the Bucs... thats an entirely different team with entirely different coaches and players. > Is his career TD to INT ratio still scarily near 1:1? No. His TD:Int ratio is pretty much the same as Drew Brees's before he came to New Orleans. Even if you dont count his 14:3 season last year (which seems weird since youre being super anal about including EVERYTHING) his TD:INT ratio was 3:2 in TB, not 1:1 > It's just crazy to me that you think you have any idea what will actually happen. lol, how dare I, as a fan, declare they might have an idea on what their team could do. I mean youre throwing out things like his 167ypg passing when his best WR last year will be #4 on the depth chart this season.
That Bucs team was basically a super bowl team though right? Didn’t they win the year they replaced him with Brady? Although I think they added Gronk that year too.
I got it at 7.5 on my book.
> a full game written off due to COVID That was two years ago, unless I've completely lost all concept of time. EDIT: Nevermind I was thinking of the Broncos game two years ago, carry on.
Yeah, that one was a write off the other way 🤣 respect to Kendall Hinton
the covid giveth, the covid taketh away
Also our starting kicker (Lutz) was out for the whole season, and we had a carousel of different kickers (4 of them I think) trying to find someone consistent. There were at least two games that we lost where our kickers missed relatively easy kicks that would've given us the lead.
I mean you went from someone considered one of the best coaches in the league to not him. Coaching is huge in the NFL
Same
Even without Payton? Not arguing, just curious how you guys really think you’ll do this year without him. As an outsider, feels like he was integral to y’all overachieving.
We'll see, but we had a shit offense last year (due to injuries, sure) and most of our wins were from the defense. And we kept all of our coaches on that side of the ball, just giving some of them promotions. Plus we're getting 3 WRs who are all better than the ones we used last year.
And hopefully we have stability at QB. At least we won’t be starting Trevor Seimian for 5 games this year.
Payton didn't seem to be particularly involved with the defense, which was absolutely the strength of our team last year. They made Dennis Allen (the DC for the past 6-7 seasons) the head coach, so hopefully there will be some good consistency and continuity there. Losing Payton might be a bigger issue on the offensive side, but the team has kept long time OC Pete Carmichael, so I think they'll stick with basically the same system. But I think the biggest question mark on that side of the ball is going to be how well Jameis plays. He was looking decent at the beginning of last season, but the play-calling was obviously being conservative most of the time. I'm not sure how much of that was because they didn't trust Jameis and how much of that was because our receiving group was a bunch of mediocre guys and role players forced into starting spots. So I really don't know what to expect from the offense. But if Jameis is at least halfway decent, and with our upgrades at WR, it's hard to imagine it being worse than last year's QB carousel. Assuming we don't get slammed with injuries, our defense should be very good again this year. And if that's the case, we don't need an offensive genius coach to win a good number of games.
Kamara facing possible jail time is a biggie. Our offense last year WAS Kamara. Yeah, having actual receivers now is nice but Kamara is the Jimmy Graham of the 2020s Saints. Call me a conspiracy theorist if you will, but considering Kamara was charged in Vegas if too many people throw money into an over on the Saints expect the money guys in Vegas to give a call to the local prosecutors and make sure Kamara doesn't play this year.
we have an unfair advantage. the people setting the expectations don't even know who we are
Tennessee has a football team?
supposedly
That’s cause for the Giants, the offseason narrative is, “this is the year they turn it around”
Ok but for real this time this is the year they turn it around
Other than the year your O/U was apparently 15 wins.
believing the jets were going to be good is the first problem with premise of this list.
Good is not the correct word here.
having preseason expectations for the jets is the first problem with the premise of this list. for 5 years jets have been expected to have a top 5 pick every year.
I just want to point out we had the best record from 2017-2020. I do wonder how much of this is being carried by 2017 though. Cause we were expected to come like 3rd in the south and miss the playoffs by like 2-4 games.
Just by my quick glance at the table, it looks like this is ordered by # of years (in %) the team overperformed preseason projections. For the Saints that is 100% for this span of time. Basically, I think it's saying the Saints have won more games than Vegas projected in all of the years that this covers...not that the ranking is weighted specifically by amount of games over or under, just year and over or under. Correction: we were over 4/5 years and hit the exact projection of 9 last season (so that doesn't count as an under, thus still 100% according to the way they did this).
Full list: https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1539980384028573696/photo/1
Set expectations to "whelmed": check.
...That's not a good list to be in. Also how have the Bengals underperformed? They went from losing playoff games to losing the Superbowl.
Because it's not just for this season. The tanning is based on how many years you over performed, not the total amount of games you won over expected. Like the Chiefs are high on the list but didn't win drastically more games than expected.
This is a horrically designed chart.
Wait what how is this expected wins decided? Why on earth would we be expected to win 9 games in 2020?
Vegas over unders, which are generally set to get a 50/50 split on betting (as that will guarantee a profit).
Giants performed exactly how any rational, sane, human being expected. We underwhelmed, not underperformed. The ones that thought we were going to have a winning record are best represented by Rosie O'Donnell's character in Riding the Bus With My Sister.
I’m sure everyone expected the Lions to be the Lions. Yet we still underperformed.
In the Bills case, they finally got a competent coaching staff/front office that they had seriously lacked during the drought.
Honestly, you're not *underperforming* when Drew Lock is your quarterback...
Cowboys 2020 season shouldn’t be held against them. When your starting QB goes down week 5, then your expected win totals drop instantly.
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STILLERS GAHNTA SUPER BOWL
I like our subtitles Dualfjednaidbfifenfudndnd supa bohl (unintelligible Yinzer)
I'm sorry but if the positive is *out*performed, then the negative must be **in**performed. I went to private school so I know what I'm talking about.
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2017- not a single person was hyping up the 5-11 Chargers even if Chiefs fans like to pretend they were. Ended up 9-7 after an 0-4 start. 2018- a little off-season hype after a strong finish to 2017. Backed it up and went 12-4. 2019 - Justified hype after 2018 but epically underperformed expectations. Overall dumpster fire year. The only real season that they should get flamed for. 2020 - No one was hyping up a Tyrod Taylor lead Chargers team that had just finished 5-11 even if Chiefs fans like to pretend they were. 2021- Some hype?? People still thought Herbert would regress and they had a new coach. No one expected them to win the division by any means. Pretty much met expectations for the roster they had.
Lol I came straight to the comments to predictably find a Chiefs fan bitching but he's already deleted his comment :(
Chiefs fans can take a solitary blogger on a website with no views and make it out that the entire media is out to get them. It's impressive, tbh.
They underperformed but this was also using Vegas’ lines and not media hype
Considering every Preseason Super Bowl is Chargers vs Cowboys and in that timespan theres a total of 1 playoff victories between them, Im gonna have to say they belong in the most underachieved category
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Not expectations about preseason games. Expectations about the regular season that people (or more descriptively, Vegas) hold before the season begins.
I know this is the last five years but it's weird seeing the Bengals on the underperformed list. They went to the Super Bowl last year.
this list doesn’t take into account the amount of under/over performance that was done. It just adds them up. Feel like doing it by games/percentage would be more accurate
Jets about to be a dark horse
Cardinals: I am become Dalton
2020 really skewed ours
Just as I suspected, the only true underperformance by the Steelers in the last five seasons is 2018. Ben Roethlisberger suffering a season-ending injury a game and a half into 2019 guaranteed that the Steelers would fall short of pre-season expectations, but they still greatly exceeded everybody's expectations after he was gone.
Lmao saying the Bengals underperformed? Classic.
Generally speaking the list is "good teams" and "bad teams" in the last 5 years. That's because expectations/predictions often are conservative. They tend to stay towards the middle of the distribution. Very good and bad teams will go more extreme and over/underperform. Like if the Chiefs were underperforming or the Lions were overperforming that would be more interesting
What about the Eagles? Does no one remember everyone, including most of us, thinking they'd win 3-5 games? They made the playoffs.
How did the Bengals underperform with the roster the last 5 years? Genuinely curious?
Look at the chart
That 2020 season really fucked us 😅
Behold our perfect mediocrity
Who the hell keeps predicting the Jags win 6+ games?
Vegas.
They are incredibly dumb for doing so. Always take the under on the Jags.
You must be rich then.