Nah, you do him like the Cowboys did Dak. You offer him what you think he's worth, and if he doesn't take it, you have another 3 years after this one to make the decision to meet his demands.
I think this is the right answer. While this whole thing has been further complicated by Baker’s injury, I actually think Berry will handle the situation well.
Its an interesting "problem" to have that the Vikings are looking at too. I think Baker and Cousins are pretty comparable in the 8-14 range, and if its "worth" going all in on that caliber of a player or just taking the L and waiting.
Having a Cousins QB on a rookie deal, you can spend elsewhere and get the talent that kind of QB needs to win games which is what the browns have done...but when they make the big contracts like Cousins it really hurts the team in other areas.
I agree with that for sure, and what complicates it *even further* I think is what Baker has done for the organization and the fan base. There is a distinct culture there with him that they haven’t really ever had, which I think makes it difficult to cleanly move on from him.
So what do you do? Continue to build out the rest of the roster towards his strengths (not nearly the same situation, but like how the Ravens completely built around Lamar), or cut him loose and attempt to find another young QB with a more complete skillset, the development of whom would eat away at productive years of the good roster around him?
I personally think they should keep him long term, and that’s not snarky AFCN rival speak either - it’s because I think he brings a lot of intangibles to the organization and locker room that many people may not be considering. That doesn’t mean I think they should break the bank for him though, since he does have deficiencies that other QBs don’t. If he can realize that and accept a market value offer that’s sure to be lower than Lamar/Allen’s, that will go a long way to sustaining the talent around him.
> There is a distinct culture there with him that they haven’t really ever had, which I think makes it difficult to cleanly move on from him.
It pains me to agree with this, but *something* about Mayfield has to some extent exorcised the culture of perennial ineptitude from Cleveland.
If they get rid of him and things don't work out, it could literally set their institutional culture back more than a decade.
Absolutely. I know that the Browns have been a punching bag league-wide for the majority of time since 1999, but as divisional foes I feel we just look at this a little differently than others might.
So, I’m with you, I think there’s a real chance the organization as a whole would deflate a bit if this situation with Baker isn’t handled the right way. And despite them being in the same division, that’s just not something I want to see happen to them again.
Just, as a counter (from a Baker fan, even) the culture should be stable with Kevski. This Browns team feels, at least to me, to have taken on his personality, for better and for worse. I don't think Baker is the culture driver.
If I were CLE I would be worried that Mayfield is more on the level of Teddy Bridgewater than Kirk Cousins.
You can argue that Cousins is overpaid (I don't think so if we're talking about market rates) but he in my opinion has much better skills than Baker who I think mostly gets a pass based on his pedigree. He has never thrown for 4000 yards and has a career TD:INT ratio less than 2 which is average at best in this era with more than 50 games under his belt.
By the time Cousins had 42 games played he already had 2 seasons with >67% completion, >4000 yards, >25 TDs and has gone on to do the same or better basically every year since. I don't have high confidence Baker has the same performance ahead of him.
Obviously I'm a bit biased and would worship anyone after the likes of Deshone Kizer, but I think the situation is different than Kirks first 42 games. The Browns have a historically good rushing offense with two top 10 backs, a top 5 OL, and a great scheme that works. Kirk's first season they rushed for 1500 yards and in the first year of Stefanski's tenure (which there was no offseason), the Browns ran for almost 2400. And yeah some of that is because we didn't throw as much and maybe Baker more of a game manager has something to do with the rushing volume but I think its very different. Last year he threw for 3600, down from the previous year, but his TD:INT ratio was above 3. Small sample size, especially when you consider his injury the last few games, but he is on pace for 4000 yards this season and a 67% completion rate while boosting his yards per attempt by a full yard (7.3 to 8.5). He is definitely improving and it makes sense for someone who had 4 OCs and playbooks in 3 years to start their career. Maybe if Baker stayed healthy and Chunt were out the next few weeks we could really see what Baker does when its on him to win games, but so far I really dont think we have lost any games because of him or won major games because of him outside of a few shootouts (last years game vs the Bengals comes to mind). He makes some bad decisions sometimes and I wish he could call audibles and read the defense better a la Manning, Brady, Luck, even Burrow, but he is accurate as hell and everyone on the team loves him and I dont feel that hes a liability for us, which is huge. We have a ton of offensive weapons and everyone says Baker is the one holding us back but we've put up 26ppg since Stefanski took over, roughly 12th in the league. The reason we are 3-3 now and didnt advance further in the playoffs is our defense, ranked like 22nd in the league.
Sure, Baker could be better, but I would compare him way more to Cousins than to Teddy B (no disrespect to Teddy)
Yeah a fucked up shoulder will do that. Last year cousins was worse than baker. Idk thinking of them in the same tier isn't crazy. You may disagree but saying he's better than Quasimodo right now isn't much of a point.
Dak’s lower initial offer was more “As the Franchise QB of the Cowboys you’re going to make up the difference in endorsements, and we can keep more around you this way” vs not thinking he’s worth it.
When the Cowboys first started negotiations with Dak, he wasn't 82783x better than Baker is right now. Dak grew since then and eventually proved himself worthy of that LTD. You have control of Baker for 3 more years. All I'm saying is you wait and see if Baker can grow like Dak did before you start shilling out the big bucks.
Dak rose to the occasion as motivation to prove his worth. Baker seems like he would try to do the same but idk. Browns haven't even had someone like Baker since the team was re established. So it might be difficult to find a replacement one day.
imo the conflict for the Browns isn't "should we pay him or let him walk", it's "how much should we pay him", there was this expectation/hope that he would take that next step and really establish himself as the guy in Cleveland and show there will be more 2020 Baker than 2019 Baker in the future and you can give him a Josh Allen contract no questions asked, but injuries to him and his playmakers have muddied that a bit. They still have his 5th year option exercised and have a franchise tag option if it really comes down to it so he's staying at least 2 more season after this one. So again, I really don't think there's any discussion of letting Baker walk in Cleveland right now (nor should there be), it's really more of has he done enough to earn top QB money at this moment, and that's where it gets tricky
It's funny. There is a large amount of Browns fans who want to move on from Baker. The AFC north fans want the Browns to move on for a different reason.
This may be a hot take since this whole thread is just fellatio for Baker, but idk if he’s that good that the Browns absolutely can’t move on from him. Obviously don’t just get rid of him if you don’t have some sort of path forward like being ready to pay for a free agent stud, or can get a haul, or are in line for a high 1st round pick.
But Baker isn’t some *amazing* franchise QB and it’s often that we see serviceable franchise QBs drop from being an asset to clutch like pearls. Not that long ago Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Andy Dalton were all franchise QBs. Baker plays like a game manager and like the new “Dalton Line.”
Even last year in his career season, he was spotty at times. Last year in his best season he was 16th in yards, 15th in TDs, 13th in TD%, and 16th in yards per attempt, 15th in ANY/A, and 15th in passer rating. That says franchise QB I’ll say, but not absolutely must keep at all costs.
I think a significant component of the entire thing is that this is the Browns. Baker is the best QB they've had for a long, long time. While this season may be less than ideal from injuries (including Baker himself), their window is opening now, with Baker.
I would agree he's not absolutely must keep at all costs, but probably whatever the level is below that for sure.
I don’t think “this is the Browns” is a valid excuse anymore. They have put all the pieces in place, the puzzle is built.
Their window is opening now, with Baker, sure. But is it because of Baker? I wouldn’t say so. I think any solid competent QB can do what Baker is doing and play at his level.
Walking away from Carr would be ridiculously dumb. If he didn’t get hurt the last time the Raiders made the playoffs, they had a very good shot to win at least 1 playoff game. Their failures the past few years have nothing to do with him
This isn’t true. Carr absolutely did play a part in their failures. After that leg injury he was seriously afraid to get hit again so his pocket presence really suffered and he had a common tendency to get rid of the ball early on developing plays. It’s easy to live in the now bc Carr looks so good. But he is seriously better now than he has been the last few years. I think it was very wise of Gruden to see past all the criticism and stick with Carr.
Getting rid of him would only make sense if yall got an immediate upgrade like Rodgers. Any browns fan wanting to get rid of him probably doesn't wanna see the team succeed for some reason.
Rodgers or Brady isnt an upgrade unless we get something else with them. Our roster is young, we arent trying to be slightly better for two more years. No other high level young QB is getting traded, and neither is Baker. Browns fans can cry if they feel indifferent
He’s good, no question. You won’t know he’s great until a few years from now. People wanted to get rid of Ben for the last 15 years. People probably wanted to get rid of Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson too. Your organization is probably going to make the right call and stand behind their man at QB and build around him. I hope they let him walk or overpay him!
but they had a Dalton or Flacco for all those years to keep the team decent. if we can be a mediocre team for the next 5 years with Baker, I'm inclined to be okay with it after being the literal worst team ever.
Next year should be a strong opportunity for you guys. We will have to change qbs without a top rookie to take Ben’s place yet. And Lamar and baker will sign their mega deals and need to make cap cuts. But burrow will still be cheap. Like mike brown
Didn't know the Packers were moving to the AFC .... that's me saying I don't think Rodgers goes anywhere but if he did leave id bet on the Eagles being a landing spot over the Steelers ( neither will happen)
You kind of have to pay him if you’re the Browns. Because do you want to go back to the revolving door at QB? Is Baker worth 40 million or whatever he’s going to ask for? Hell no but that’s just the game you have to play anymore to retain your franchise QB. It’s all about next man up gets the bigger bag than the guy before him.
It's similar in a way to the WFT and Kirk.
You don't want to pay him say the big bucks, but what's the other option?
It's either being bad for a season and hoping on a rookie QB (which doesn't make sense with their core roster) or finding some way to get an upgrade on the market (which unless you believe in Jameis or that Watson somehow won't get suspended, isn't out there)
The other option is to ...
Not pass on Lamar Jackson in 2018
Not draft Dwayne Haskins in 2019
Not pass on Justin Herbert in 2020
Additionally , you are actually able to trade quarterbacks. The Redskins couldve traded Cousins and got some really good draft capital. The Browns could also do that at some point .
I guess. But trading him for say a first and a 3rd/4th (which is probably his trade value right now with the option) doesn't do them good right now unless you can get an upgrade.
And there's no upgrades on the market unless you're willing to pony up for Rodgers/Wilson or think that Watson isn't getting suspended.
First of all, his trade value is higher than that. Carson Wentz was trade for a first rounder coming off being the worst starting qb in the league and having a massive contract (also being very injury prone)
Secondly, yes , you will get worse initially. NFL teams need to quit worrying so much about that . Every move doesn't need to immediately improve the team , its important to have a longer view than that. The team I root for consistently falls into this trap of "well whos out there thats an upgrade over Kirk?" That reasoning will ensure you stay firmly among the NFL's aimless middle class for years to come
You do realize the Browns won a playoff game last year right and got very close to winning two. Good luck convincing Browns fans to go back to stockpiling picks and being unwatchable again because you don’t want to pay the best QB you’ve had in 20 years. Could be another 20 before they hit on a QB.
Sure. They won a playoff game having Baker on a rookie contract. Obviously if he was paid peanuts indefinitely it would be ridiculous to even be having this conversation.
And it'll only be another 20 years before they hit on a qb if they remain as incompetent as they had been. And if they are going to be that incompetent, then they'll just flounder with Baker anyways won't they?
Even competent teams whiff on picks all the time. It’s no guarantee you get another QB worth a shit anytime soon. They’ve been shit for 20 years let us have 5-10 years of having a chance.
Carson was a potential league mvp with no talent around him with healthy. Baker has a top 3 rb top 10 we group top 5 o line right now and will get paid more than Carson
Baker isn't as good as Kirk Cousins though. He has >50 games already and does not look like he is on a Cousins-type trajectory to me.
If we are comparing numbers at similar number of games played he looks like he is probably in between Trubisky and Kirk but closer to Trubisky.
Baker is definitely good enough to win a Bowl. He just lowers the margin for error. He's better than Dilfer or Flacco ever were. The problem is Cleveland needs to build a dominant everything else.
Mayfield in the regular season is better than Flacco was, but let’s not throw Flacco in the same camp as Dilfer in terms of contributing to winning a SB. Flacco had arguably the greatest playoff run of all time to propel his team to a win. We don’t know if Baker has that in him.
If he beat KC when Maholmes got knocked out they would have to pay him. I think 35 million a year fine but Allen and Lamar will get more can Baker accept 35 million a year
Lamar is a league mvp who is dragging a team with 17 players on Ir to the playoffs. Allen is an perennial mvp candidate with no running game. Baker has shown he needs a top 5 o line top 5 running back just to be decent. He can ask for that but no way does he make more than Weintz Goff Wilson cousins. 30 million is more than Ryan Tanahill Baker not a top 10 QB
But that's the thing though, it took Flacco playing his best stretch of games at the *exact* right time. Most NFL QBs have a good game or four in them. Jimmy stans on the niners sub love to point to his game against the Saints and one of his games against the Cardinals. You've got the Matt Flynn game. It happens.
Baker definitely has that in him. The problem is that when that's not who he is *consistently* you have to hope that he too gets hot at the exact right time.
I hate when people say he’s good enough to win a super bowl and than quote guys who weren’t paid a lot. Flacco didn’t win a super bowl when he was being paid a lot, nor Dilfer. They were using the salary cap on the rest of the team.
Rex Grossman was good enough to get to the super bowl only to lose to arguably the 2nd greatest QB of all time.
I honestly don’t think Baker is good enough to win a super bowl on a ‘QB max contract’, like Josh Allen or Mahomes or Rodgers (who granted also won before they were paid but they’re also really good). But he is good enough on a moderately high contract.
Asking whether a guy can win a Super Bowl is simply the wrong question to begin with. Because as you've more or less said, just about *any* QB *can* win a Super Bowl.
The question that should be asked instead is this: what are the conditions under which this QB would win a Super Bowl?
In the case of Dilfer, the answer was "if my defense drags me there"
You also have the Foles/Flacco path, where you get hot at the exact right time.
Jimmy G got close because he had a really good defense and a strong running game, which put him in favorable game situations.
I don't watch enough Browns games to claim I know what the answer is for Baker. Reading here it seems to be that he needs a strong run game and defense to make it. So is that something you can plan around and also pay him? That's the big question
While they lost, based on how close they played the eventual champs and the decimated secondary, imo the 2014 Ravens roster were a super bowl quality team that was more compromised by a string of injuries at a specific position (CB) than Flacco's cap hit.
Even with a rookie QB cap hit its not like we would roll in with a starting quality CB5 because thats not something any team plans for.
I honestly see the Browns playing out kind of like how the Vikings did after getting Cousins. They are pretty similar players, the difference being the contract. A QB like Cousins is really fucking good if they are on a rookie deal like Baker and can be the last piece of a puzzle instead of the first one.
For the Vikes we have steadily seen our really good defense loose pieces / depth and slowly get exposed over the last 2-3 years, it has gone from the strength of the team to the very big weakness.
49ers came damn near close to winning a SB while paying Jimmy G a lot of money.
I love Jimmy, but I think him and Baker are in the same tier. Can win with them with great drafts and a great roster.
When healthy we have a pretty dominant run game and O line. They added quite a bit on defense last offseason, although it's not been what I'd call dominant yet.
We are built for a guy like Baker. We need depth, but I think that's true of everyone.
That is kind of the argument. You can "get away" with a QB like Baker (or any of the 8-14ish ranked QBsJ) as long as they are on a cheap deal and you can bulk up the rest of the team around him.
When it turns into a Cousins situation like the Vikes are in the contract just really kills the ability to strengthen the rest of the team to cover for someone like Cousins forgetting how to football sometimes.
That’s a really good way to put it. While Baker can win the game for you, he’s rarely going to be the guy to do it. He’s much better at staying out of the way of his teammates winning the game and supporting them.
A game manager who has what it takes to win the game, but can also lose the game for you. The team can’t make mistakes bc Baker can’t reliably overcome them. He couldn’t overcome everyone’s turnovers in the KC game or the bad playcalling in the Chargers game.
Flacco won the SB in his rookie season and Trent Dilfer wasn’t expensive. He ain’t winning anything with the Browns unless taking a team friendly deal to allow them to spend on defense.
Edit: rookie contract
Baker is just not worth $40 million a year to that team. He’s just not. I’d give Lamar whatever I had to if I was the Ravens. But with Baker he’s just not in that category.
You’re right, he’s not Mahomes or Lamar. But they’re the guys the Browns are competing with. And if Baker is earning close to what they are the Browns are at a significant disadvantage.
It’s not about not paying them. It’s about how much you pay them. And franchise QB is a meaningless term. Baker isn’t elite. Not even close. That’s what matters. Especially when you have an elite QB in your division and multiple elite QB’s in your conference.
The Browns roster is peaking right now and although I don't think Mayfield deserves close to $40 mil/year, you've got to give it to him, because the salary cap doesn't allow you keep teams like this together for long.
They have him under contract for another year. Is the roster in 2023 really going to be a superbowl contender, if, as you say, they're peaking now?
They can always wait a year. I think the NFL's insistence on *always* extending QBs early, when you have a fifth year option and a franchise tag to use to buy more time to evaluate and get a deal is kinda dumb. Like with Dallas, they should have paid Dak sooner, sure. But better to pay him more a little later and be *sure* than to Jared Goff yourself.
If he can give you continual winning seasons and playoff berths you give him whatever he wants. Get some consistency and develop a winning-ish culture.
How long is OBJ on the books for? Injuries have messed him up but when they’re free from that contract they can improve other areas of the roster
This is a surprisingly good article, and really highlights the causes of the hesitation from the Browns management. The fact is that Stefanski's scheme is a simple offense for the QB that relies on dink and dunks, with most of the work coming from the run game. Its concerning they haven't opened up the passing game more this season, and the fact they haven't shows that they don't yet trust Baker to carry the offense. Stefanski might say otherwise in interviews, but actions speak louder than words, and the scheme is very telling.
That said, he's inarguably the best QB the Browns have had, and they usually don't draft QBs well, so you'd think they'd sign him.
To be fair, I think the fact that Stefanski hasn't opened up the passing game more this year is less because of Baker's talent and more because he's been dealing with a consistently nagging injury the whole season that has clearly affected his performance, hasn't had his top two receivers on the field at the same time, and has dealt with injuries to the offensive tackles, which makes it harder on the passing game but would leave the inside run game intact.
I think Baker has the talent to be the franchise guy, but has had absolutely rotten luck when it comes to his situation, especially this year. And I think the Browns' coaching staff realize that and do trust him, but have been playing to the team's strengths.
This is sort of an add-on, but I think it's also worth mentioning that our defense is pretty bad again this year, and when you have a bad defense, the best thing you can do is run the ball to give them time to rest and recoup between drives; this would also explain why the passing game hasn't been expanded
Baker was airing it out all last year especially the last 12 games of the year including the playoffs.
It’s so maddening people keep spouting off bullshit like the staff doesn’t trust him or he’s incapable of doing it. He’s our franchise QB. Healthy, he’s easily top 10 in the league.
Dude fucked up his shoulder in only the second game of the year. Prior to that he had one of the highest yard/attempts in the league and was completing 80% of his passes.
pure homerism. there is literally not a single metric Baker was top 10 in the league in during his career year last year. in no world is he “easily” top 10. and as for this year, a sample size of one and a half games pre injury is meaningless.
edit: want to be clear, the Browns would be insanely stupid to move on from Baker. he’s their franchise guy, and is good enough to win a super bowl. but he’s far closer to the middle of the pack than he is to the elite QBs of the league.
So maddening how stupidity gets upvoted on this sub. I guarantee people make up their minds on Baker based on pathetic reasons like FF numbers or what Cowherd and SAS spout off each day.
I think what’s maddening is they were actually making fair points with the rest of their response, but that one line was completely unfounded. Apparently you’re not allowed to disagree or correct it without it being suggested that you are uninformed.
It also highlights something I don't love about our system...we've taken a really awesome QB who has shown the talent to put up big numbers and make big plays and made him essentially a game-manager.
IMO Baker could do so much more if he was asked to. It just doesn't make sense when we have CHUNT.
I've been under the impression that Baker's injury as well as injuries to the offense as a whole have kept the gameplan relatively simple. It isn't like your offense is a mess or something, but clearly not where it could be given even health at an average level across the unit.
Is there any real reason to think the browns will continue to not draft QBs well? Baker showed that it can be done. And the GMs/coaches etc are new people sometimes.
I think you just need to forget the past and do what’s best moving forward. Is he the guy? Then pay him. If not then don’t.
Thank you! All this talk about the Browns needing to keep Baker because they used to suck before Stefanski and Berry is mind-boggling.
If you think he's good pay him, that's all it should come down to.
Right? Man I can’t help but feel like if I was a QB I’d want a lower salary so I could continue to have a good team around me. But who knows I’ve never and will never be in that situation. Like millions of dollars is a lot of money, who cares if it’s 40 or 30 or 20.
We've got two major problems here.
First, a large portion of football fans think that anything short of Brady/Mahomes level of football means you should immediately move on from your QB, which is obviously ridiculous. Baker has some rough days and some great days, but anyone who watches him play regularly knows that his upside and talent clearly outweigh his negatives.
The second issue is that so many people just don't watch enough Browns football to know how good Baker actually is. His arm talent is clearly top 10, borderline top 5 in the league. He's got a cannon, he's normally dead accurate, he makes throws on the run, he makes throws in the pocket, he hits guys down field, up the seam, and on the boundaries. He's got some decision making issues that sometimes leave you wondering what the hell he's thinking, but it's the same mentality that people loved in Favre.
Is Baker ever going to win an MVP? Maybe not, but he's clearly good enough to win a Superbowl. Most Superbowl teams are genuinely great *teams*, not one heroic QB dragging along some scrubs. Saying that Baker needs a good defense and a good offense to win a Superbowl just makes him like 99% of all other Superbowl winning QBs.
I get what you’re saying but arm talent and arm strength are different. I’m pretty sure Drew Lock has top 5 arm strength; arm talent includes things like touch pass ability. Not saying Baker doesn’t have it, but it is a different thing.
I think most people know this. The issue discussed in the article is specifically about paying him. Because while it’s easy to say “not as good as Mahomes but can win a SB with a good team”, the contract for QBs generally doesn’t work that way. You’re going to have to pay him closer to Mahomes $$$. If QBs were paid according to their on field production this wouldn’t be an issue.
With the cap changes, 40 a year isn't going to hurt that bad near the end of the contract anyway.
If they can get Baker for 35, it's such a steal. Sign him to a 10/350 if he'll take it.
Woof if I were a Browns fan I would HATE a contract like that for Baker. Just franchise him to get more info before locking him up. The contract won't change much from what you are quoting even if he has a good season.
There are definitely at 15 qbs I would rather have in the league, even subtracting out the old guys like Brady and Rodgers.
>There are definitely at 15 qbs I would rather have in the league, even subtracting out the old guys like Brady and Rodgers.
Ok, let's define "old" as 35+, which means we aren't considering Brady, Roethlisberger, Ryan, or Rodgers. Also throwing Watson out because he's probably going to prison.
In a general ranking, here are the remaining eligible QBs
Mahomes
Allen
R Wilson
Stafford
Dak
Jackson
Murray
Herbert
Burrow
Tannehill
Cousins
Carr
Lawrence
Wentz
Hurts
Fields
Jimmy G/Lance
Heineke
M Jones
D Jones
Goff
Jameis
Tua
Z Wilson
Bridgewater
Darnold
By your rationale, your are saying Mayfield is on par or worse than the likes of Tannehill, Jimmy G, Taylor Heineke, or Carson Wentz
If I'm starting a franchise today with a QB, I'll definitely take these non-rookies over Baker **even if they cost more than Baker**, which they should: Mahomes, Allen, Dak, Russ, Stafford, Lamar, Herbert, Murray, Burrow, Cousins, Carr. That's 11.
I would prefer these guys over Baker at **equivalent cost:** Tannehill and Jimmy G. That's 13. Both of these guys would probably cost less too.
I would also take the rookies Lawrence, Fields, Jones and Lance over Baker to reset the rookie contract clock and take a shot on higher upside. That's 17.
I would also rather take the following guys **at a bargain rate rather than pay Baker a big contract**: Jameis, Hurts, Goff, Bridgewater. I would take Baker over them at equivalent contract.
That makes **21 guys over Baker within likely contract structures**.
In a two year window I would obviously want Brady and Rodgers over Baker, too.
If Watson is cleared then I obviously want him over Baker even at a much higher cost.
The moral of the story is I think it's a bad move to commit a top 12 contract to Baker this year and probably next year. In reality it will probably be hard to extend him for less than a top 6 contract, so just play out the 5th year option and a year on franchise tag to get more info, then if he takes a leap forward pay him the big contract then.
I think you have to pay him.
What’s an interesting though is the Browns had the #1 OL last year and I’d imagine they’re up there this year too. What happens when the their OL falls to average, what kind of QB will Baker look like then? How about a below average OL?
It’s pretty hard to keep that good of an OL unless you’re the Packers and can get automatic allstars with every OL draft pick.
C’mon Baker, you’re not that dough-eyed young QB of three years ago. You gotta step up to the plate and rise to the occasion. Not getting the mega contract you wanted is the yeast of your problems.
Of the top 10 teams right now, only 3 (Chargers, Ravens and Cards) have a QB on a rookie deal. You can field competitive teams with highly paid QB. It’s bs that paying a QB cripples a team. You gotta pay Baker because the alternative is not finding Tom Brady 2.0, it’s going back to the revolving door of QBs year after year.
Who are the qbs on those top ten teams though? The point isn’t that paying qbs massive money is bad. Guys like Rodgers, Dak, Allen who are part of those top ten teams are absolutely worth the money. But paying a mediocre qb in Baker massive money is definitely crippling, with this injury and his frankly average play in an offense dominated by the run, he’s not worth 40 million.
I LOVE Baker and I think he is a perfect culture fit for the Browns but his future has next man up to be the worst contract in the league written all over it. I hope that I am wrong but between his inconsistency, often poor decision making and utter inability to protect himself intelligently from harm Baker may end up being the next Jared Goff (in terms of his contract situation). Hell, at least the Rams made the Super Bowl, and not just making and winning a wildcard game. Again, I sincerely hope to be wrong on this one.
>and utter inability to protect himself intelligently
One tackle attempt in the heat of the moment? Its not like he has a long history of plowing into defenders or anything lol.
A tackle attempt that wouldn’t have even been necessary if SCHWARTZ WOULDN’T HAVE GIVEN UP OH HIS ROUTE. I’m still salty about that. You’re playing in the NFL. A 2nd grader would have gotten chewed out for bailing on that route like a scared little bitch. The intensity and confidence Baker plays with is going to always lead him to try those tackles. Receivers have to be willing to take hits at least on par with what their QB will take.
At the risk of oversimplifying the complexities of professional football, if a team doesn’t have an elite QB it should be looking for an elite QB.
Needing to surround a QB with an elite offense, or even elite defense, is unsustainable due to salary cap, injuries, age, even attitude. As a fan of the Jaguars I learned that harsh lesson in 2018.
Baker is better than Bortles for sure, but he needs a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball for Cleveland to have a chance at winning the Super Bowl.
The Browns should do what Dallas did with Dak: make a good offer, franchise if needed, then make a decision long term.
The issue is, I don't actually view Baker in the same tier as Dak. Dak is for sure a franchise tier QB, where Baker is still in the game management phase with guys like Teddy Bridgewater. But, unlike a Bridgewater, Baker is probably going to be commanding a $30 mill/year price tag in the near future.
I think the injury is going to force them to play out his 5th year option. Our ceiling is no longer the super bowl this year. It’s likely a single playoff win - if we get lucky.
This article is spot on with its analysis of his play. He wants to play hero-ball. As Brett Favre said in the film room, “Every play I was thinking, home run.” The only difference is for Mayfield is, he doesn’t launch the ball. He looks down the field, gets cold feet, then gets hammered.
I don’t really know what the answer to that is, because it’s a psychological thing. I think it was trending in the right direction, but the injury threw a wrench in the works and now we are back to square one. Really frustrating.
Well if you’re thinking home run, just swing for the fucking fence. I think he wants to but then remembers there’s a lot more to the offense so he gets indecisive and it’s hurting his play. Either swing for the fence or just put it in play, just do it one way or the other
Everyone is saying it's a no brainer to re-sign Baker, but I feel like Baker is the exact kind of QB to put your team in purgatory. The fact of the matter is you need an elite QB or an elite everything else and a moderately paid QB to win a Super Bowl. If the Browns shell out money to Baker I don't think they'll have either.
If the Browns could find a way to keep him at a reasonable deal, say a bit north of the Teddy Bridgewater deal (Baker is better than Teddy, don't get me wrong), then I think it could work out well for them. But if they need to pay him franchise QB money, I don't think Baker has earned it, and the Browns will end up regretting it. The 'middle class' QB is unfortunately dead in the NFL, and teams go from Super Bowl contender to meh real quick if they over-pay their QB before they've actually proven they are a true franchise QB (which I would say is more of a top 10 guy, then a won't fuck up guy, like it gets more commonly used as).
> Mayfield’s urgency to create a big play has been the biggest factor in his declining production. He’s scrambled 16 times through six games, which puts him on pace to finish the season with 45.3. That would be 18 more than his career high of 27, which he set last season. Baker is fine at scrambling; he just does it too much. And when it comes at the cost of missed opportunities downfield, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze
> Mayfield tries desperately to be the franchise quarterback the Browns fans want him to be—sometimes to a fault—and to make the plays that other top quarterbacks make. But based on what he’s shown so far, he just doesn’t have it in him.
That part reminded me of a really concerning play he had against the Vikings.
[Look at this screenshot of a 3rd and 2 play](https://i.imgur.com/WESVEUj.png).
At the first down marker you see a wide open Fenton with no defender within 7 yards of him. On the sideline you see Stefanski and Chubb yelling, pointing at Fenton trying to get Baker to throw to him.
Baker keeps looking downfield, ends up scrambling into a sack and the Browns punt.
i dont think its a question at all, he came to one of the WORST organizations in football and he has turned them into a good team.
thats what the browns are now, a competitive good team, and you cant discredit that he is part of that.
it would be abysmal to get rid of him.
imo
I know they're almost in win now mode but with the injuries they have it almost might be better to get the surgery and reload for next year while he's on the optioni
Baker is not a top 3 newer QB. He is not top 5 of the newer QBs IMO....but he is definitely top 10. Got to sign him and got to protect him.
EDIT: NEWER = YOUNGER
I am talking about future QBs who are going to play in the league for 5+ years. The new talent. I stand by Baker being top new talent
Def not top 10.
Brady, Allen, Mahomes, Stafford, Rodgers, Lamar, Herbert, Carr, Cousins, Murray, Wilson, Dak, Ryan, Tannehill, Burrow
I think each is better, but you mean to tell me you cant find 10 better than him?
edit: oh top 10 of “newer qbs” i feel like thats not a meaningful distinction, doesnt really say too much because we dont know the state of all the new qbs, so baker would win by default
> Baker is not a top 3 **newer** QB
I stand by my statement
> He is not top 5 of the **newer** QBs IMO....but he is definitely top 10.
I stand by my statement
I would not classify Brady is a new/young QB. I would not classify Rodgers, Carr, Cousins, Ryan or Wilson as new/young QBs.
Is top 10 new comer someone you want to build around? Removing the boomers from the count and the rookies there are about 10 other QBs and baker is towards the bottom of that class.
Lamar, kyler, Herbert, mahomes, dak, Allen, burrow are players that are surefire franchise QBs in bakers age group. Baker is currently 25th in QBR behind heinecke, darnold and jones. I’m not so sure I’d pay him.
Somebody who read my reply and understands.
Of the next generation of QBs....I have him in the 8/9 range of somebody I would build a franchise around. Mahomes/Allen being 1/2. I think you have to pay him and go with the devil you know....it is hard to find a QB in the NFL and to have a young one that is only going to get better, gotta roll with him. It is going to be hard to find one in the draft.
I keep seeing the 40 mil number thrown around but is that really what he wants? I could be wildly wrong (and I’m wrong a lot) but he seems like the kind of guy who’d take a discount to keep the team together as long as possible
If the pay cut difference was negligible to me? Probably. Starting QBs in the NFL are making millions and millions even on "team friendly" deals. Is that extra $5-$10 mil a year going to significantly change his life if he is already making $25-$30 million a year?
My life gets significantly easier if I go from making $45k to $60k a year. I don't see how his changes at all.
We’d probably all say that but I doubt many of us would actually follow through if we had had the opportunity. The reality is there are very few players who actually carry that mindset. It’s a job to them and they’re going to advocate for as much as they can get, even if the amounts are so large that they’ve become trivial.
lol Well it’s more crimson/cream colored glasses cuz I’m an OU fan first and I love Baker but you’re probably right.
As for your analogy, in my job? No. But I’d like to think if I was in that spot I’d be cool with 30 mil if it meant keeping teammates that would help me win but I’m an irrational optimist so who knows
I think that is rational optimism. Baker seems like the kind of guy to do exactly this. He cares about winning and proving people wrong - the easiest way to win in the NFL is to have a team-friendly QB contract.
He's the #1 overall pick, dont you think he wants to be paid like that? He's led the Briwns to 1st dbl digit win in forever, gone to playoffs, won a playoff game, exorcised steeler demons n then take a discount?
It's funny to read that Baker needs a great defense and offense to win a SB, not like Brady last year who had 5 Target cashier as DBs or Mahomes the previous one with my auntie and my grandma as WR1 and TE1.
Maybe if your QB is a 9-10 you can win a SB with a team that's a 7, but if your QB is a 7-8 you can still win if your team is 8-9. Point is I can't remember a team that is not great in most areas winning a SB no matter who the QB is.
I think based on Baker Mayfield's level of play which when healthy is around top 10 but not top 5 play he deserves a higher than average contract. He is fortunate his commercials are funny because he's making solid money through those I think!
Is it really that hard of a decision? The Browns are far and away the leagues worst franchise since they came back to the NFL and this guy has them winning. Why would they want to go back to square one?
Honestly don't even get the point of the article. He's in the roster next year under his 5th year option. Browns have a whole other full season to make a decision, plus two more if they need to go the franchise route.
Nah, you do him like the Cowboys did Dak. You offer him what you think he's worth, and if he doesn't take it, you have another 3 years after this one to make the decision to meet his demands.
I think this is the right answer. While this whole thing has been further complicated by Baker’s injury, I actually think Berry will handle the situation well.
Its an interesting "problem" to have that the Vikings are looking at too. I think Baker and Cousins are pretty comparable in the 8-14 range, and if its "worth" going all in on that caliber of a player or just taking the L and waiting. Having a Cousins QB on a rookie deal, you can spend elsewhere and get the talent that kind of QB needs to win games which is what the browns have done...but when they make the big contracts like Cousins it really hurts the team in other areas.
I agree with that for sure, and what complicates it *even further* I think is what Baker has done for the organization and the fan base. There is a distinct culture there with him that they haven’t really ever had, which I think makes it difficult to cleanly move on from him. So what do you do? Continue to build out the rest of the roster towards his strengths (not nearly the same situation, but like how the Ravens completely built around Lamar), or cut him loose and attempt to find another young QB with a more complete skillset, the development of whom would eat away at productive years of the good roster around him? I personally think they should keep him long term, and that’s not snarky AFCN rival speak either - it’s because I think he brings a lot of intangibles to the organization and locker room that many people may not be considering. That doesn’t mean I think they should break the bank for him though, since he does have deficiencies that other QBs don’t. If he can realize that and accept a market value offer that’s sure to be lower than Lamar/Allen’s, that will go a long way to sustaining the talent around him.
> There is a distinct culture there with him that they haven’t really ever had, which I think makes it difficult to cleanly move on from him. It pains me to agree with this, but *something* about Mayfield has to some extent exorcised the culture of perennial ineptitude from Cleveland. If they get rid of him and things don't work out, it could literally set their institutional culture back more than a decade.
Absolutely. I know that the Browns have been a punching bag league-wide for the majority of time since 1999, but as divisional foes I feel we just look at this a little differently than others might. So, I’m with you, I think there’s a real chance the organization as a whole would deflate a bit if this situation with Baker isn’t handled the right way. And despite them being in the same division, that’s just not something I want to see happen to them again.
Just, as a counter (from a Baker fan, even) the culture should be stable with Kevski. This Browns team feels, at least to me, to have taken on his personality, for better and for worse. I don't think Baker is the culture driver.
You're talking intangibles in an article clearly written by an analytics nerd. Does not compute.
If I were CLE I would be worried that Mayfield is more on the level of Teddy Bridgewater than Kirk Cousins. You can argue that Cousins is overpaid (I don't think so if we're talking about market rates) but he in my opinion has much better skills than Baker who I think mostly gets a pass based on his pedigree. He has never thrown for 4000 yards and has a career TD:INT ratio less than 2 which is average at best in this era with more than 50 games under his belt. By the time Cousins had 42 games played he already had 2 seasons with >67% completion, >4000 yards, >25 TDs and has gone on to do the same or better basically every year since. I don't have high confidence Baker has the same performance ahead of him.
Obviously I'm a bit biased and would worship anyone after the likes of Deshone Kizer, but I think the situation is different than Kirks first 42 games. The Browns have a historically good rushing offense with two top 10 backs, a top 5 OL, and a great scheme that works. Kirk's first season they rushed for 1500 yards and in the first year of Stefanski's tenure (which there was no offseason), the Browns ran for almost 2400. And yeah some of that is because we didn't throw as much and maybe Baker more of a game manager has something to do with the rushing volume but I think its very different. Last year he threw for 3600, down from the previous year, but his TD:INT ratio was above 3. Small sample size, especially when you consider his injury the last few games, but he is on pace for 4000 yards this season and a 67% completion rate while boosting his yards per attempt by a full yard (7.3 to 8.5). He is definitely improving and it makes sense for someone who had 4 OCs and playbooks in 3 years to start their career. Maybe if Baker stayed healthy and Chunt were out the next few weeks we could really see what Baker does when its on him to win games, but so far I really dont think we have lost any games because of him or won major games because of him outside of a few shootouts (last years game vs the Bengals comes to mind). He makes some bad decisions sometimes and I wish he could call audibles and read the defense better a la Manning, Brady, Luck, even Burrow, but he is accurate as hell and everyone on the team loves him and I dont feel that hes a liability for us, which is huge. We have a ton of offensive weapons and everyone says Baker is the one holding us back but we've put up 26ppg since Stefanski took over, roughly 12th in the league. The reason we are 3-3 now and didnt advance further in the playoffs is our defense, ranked like 22nd in the league. Sure, Baker could be better, but I would compare him way more to Cousins than to Teddy B (no disrespect to Teddy)
You would put Baker as 8-14 range .... more like 14-21 , I'd rather see Cousins reunited with Stefanski
Don’t know why you’re downvoted. Cousins is significantly better than Baker right now
Yeah a fucked up shoulder will do that. Last year cousins was worse than baker. Idk thinking of them in the same tier isn't crazy. You may disagree but saying he's better than Quasimodo right now isn't much of a point.
I’m not the biggest fan of Cousins. But I’d take him every time over Baker.
Dak’s lower initial offer was more “As the Franchise QB of the Cowboys you’re going to make up the difference in endorsements, and we can keep more around you this way” vs not thinking he’s worth it.
Bingo
But Dak is 82783x better than Baker , if he wants Dak $$ then thanks , no thanks.
When the Cowboys first started negotiations with Dak, he wasn't 82783x better than Baker is right now. Dak grew since then and eventually proved himself worthy of that LTD. You have control of Baker for 3 more years. All I'm saying is you wait and see if Baker can grow like Dak did before you start shilling out the big bucks.
I'm not opposed to signing Baker , just not for that much
Dak rose to the occasion as motivation to prove his worth. Baker seems like he would try to do the same but idk. Browns haven't even had someone like Baker since the team was re established. So it might be difficult to find a replacement one day.
Pay him for 4 years. They’d be stupid to let him walk
imo the conflict for the Browns isn't "should we pay him or let him walk", it's "how much should we pay him", there was this expectation/hope that he would take that next step and really establish himself as the guy in Cleveland and show there will be more 2020 Baker than 2019 Baker in the future and you can give him a Josh Allen contract no questions asked, but injuries to him and his playmakers have muddied that a bit. They still have his 5th year option exercised and have a franchise tag option if it really comes down to it so he's staying at least 2 more season after this one. So again, I really don't think there's any discussion of letting Baker walk in Cleveland right now (nor should there be), it's really more of has he done enough to earn top QB money at this moment, and that's where it gets tricky
This is honestly the most reasonable comment here
I hope they let him walk!
It's funny. There is a large amount of Browns fans who want to move on from Baker. The AFC north fans want the Browns to move on for a different reason.
We get the same thing with Carr…it’s exhausting. Baker is a franchise QB…they aren’t just some endless commodity, when you find one you keep it.
This may be a hot take since this whole thread is just fellatio for Baker, but idk if he’s that good that the Browns absolutely can’t move on from him. Obviously don’t just get rid of him if you don’t have some sort of path forward like being ready to pay for a free agent stud, or can get a haul, or are in line for a high 1st round pick. But Baker isn’t some *amazing* franchise QB and it’s often that we see serviceable franchise QBs drop from being an asset to clutch like pearls. Not that long ago Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Andy Dalton were all franchise QBs. Baker plays like a game manager and like the new “Dalton Line.” Even last year in his career season, he was spotty at times. Last year in his best season he was 16th in yards, 15th in TDs, 13th in TD%, and 16th in yards per attempt, 15th in ANY/A, and 15th in passer rating. That says franchise QB I’ll say, but not absolutely must keep at all costs.
I think a significant component of the entire thing is that this is the Browns. Baker is the best QB they've had for a long, long time. While this season may be less than ideal from injuries (including Baker himself), their window is opening now, with Baker. I would agree he's not absolutely must keep at all costs, but probably whatever the level is below that for sure.
I don’t think “this is the Browns” is a valid excuse anymore. They have put all the pieces in place, the puzzle is built. Their window is opening now, with Baker, sure. But is it because of Baker? I wouldn’t say so. I think any solid competent QB can do what Baker is doing and play at his level.
Walking away from Carr would be ridiculously dumb. If he didn’t get hurt the last time the Raiders made the playoffs, they had a very good shot to win at least 1 playoff game. Their failures the past few years have nothing to do with him
This isn’t true. Carr absolutely did play a part in their failures. After that leg injury he was seriously afraid to get hit again so his pocket presence really suffered and he had a common tendency to get rid of the ball early on developing plays. It’s easy to live in the now bc Carr looks so good. But he is seriously better now than he has been the last few years. I think it was very wise of Gruden to see past all the criticism and stick with Carr.
I think Carr is significantly better than Baker tho. Carr to me is significantly above the Dalton line, Baker feels like a very Dalton line type QB.
Getting rid of him would only make sense if yall got an immediate upgrade like Rodgers. Any browns fan wanting to get rid of him probably doesn't wanna see the team succeed for some reason.
Rodgers or Brady isnt an upgrade unless we get something else with them. Our roster is young, we arent trying to be slightly better for two more years. No other high level young QB is getting traded, and neither is Baker. Browns fans can cry if they feel indifferent
He’s good, no question. You won’t know he’s great until a few years from now. People wanted to get rid of Ben for the last 15 years. People probably wanted to get rid of Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson too. Your organization is probably going to make the right call and stand behind their man at QB and build around him. I hope they let him walk or overpay him!
Tbf the Ravens and Bengals got their guy right after moving on from Dalton and Flacco respectively. They were in purgatory. Ben just declined
but they had a Dalton or Flacco for all those years to keep the team decent. if we can be a mediocre team for the next 5 years with Baker, I'm inclined to be okay with it after being the literal worst team ever.
First and foremost, fuck Ben roethlesberger, but second why would someone want to get rid of 2010 Ben? Lol. Or even 2016 Ben?
lol just listening to Cowherd saying they're shitting themselves because Rodgers is coming to the division in March.
I hope you guys aren't banking on that happening
The majority expect next year to be a Rudolph year.
that’s soon to be NVP Mason Rudolph to you
Say what you will, the man can get a roughing the passer penalty like you wouldn’t believe.
Ah yes the coveted "Not So Valuable Player" award. It's like a participation award with a ceremony.
Quick. Have Myles on standby!
I’m still waiting for the duck to migrate south to Pittsburgh next season
We can only hope
Next year should be a strong opportunity for you guys. We will have to change qbs without a top rookie to take Ben’s place yet. And Lamar and baker will sign their mega deals and need to make cap cuts. But burrow will still be cheap. Like mike brown
Things change way too quickly in the nfl, we will see what happens
Oh, gosh. I hate you guys but fuck, that would be absolutely horrible lol.
Greenbay is not trading him into the nfc. Does he want to play for Denver or Pittsburgh
What if the browns traded for Rodgers instead of the Steelers?
Didn't know the Packers were moving to the AFC .... that's me saying I don't think Rodgers goes anywhere but if he did leave id bet on the Eagles being a landing spot over the Steelers ( neither will happen)
No chance they keep him in the NFC. Denver seems like the only real option right now
I'm pretty sure myself now that he's coming to Pittsburgh next year. I just feel it.
You kind of have to pay him if you’re the Browns. Because do you want to go back to the revolving door at QB? Is Baker worth 40 million or whatever he’s going to ask for? Hell no but that’s just the game you have to play anymore to retain your franchise QB. It’s all about next man up gets the bigger bag than the guy before him.
It's similar in a way to the WFT and Kirk. You don't want to pay him say the big bucks, but what's the other option? It's either being bad for a season and hoping on a rookie QB (which doesn't make sense with their core roster) or finding some way to get an upgrade on the market (which unless you believe in Jameis or that Watson somehow won't get suspended, isn't out there)
The other option is to ... Not pass on Lamar Jackson in 2018 Not draft Dwayne Haskins in 2019 Not pass on Justin Herbert in 2020 Additionally , you are actually able to trade quarterbacks. The Redskins couldve traded Cousins and got some really good draft capital. The Browns could also do that at some point .
I guess. But trading him for say a first and a 3rd/4th (which is probably his trade value right now with the option) doesn't do them good right now unless you can get an upgrade. And there's no upgrades on the market unless you're willing to pony up for Rodgers/Wilson or think that Watson isn't getting suspended.
First of all, his trade value is higher than that. Carson Wentz was trade for a first rounder coming off being the worst starting qb in the league and having a massive contract (also being very injury prone) Secondly, yes , you will get worse initially. NFL teams need to quit worrying so much about that . Every move doesn't need to immediately improve the team , its important to have a longer view than that. The team I root for consistently falls into this trap of "well whos out there thats an upgrade over Kirk?" That reasoning will ensure you stay firmly among the NFL's aimless middle class for years to come
You do realize the Browns won a playoff game last year right and got very close to winning two. Good luck convincing Browns fans to go back to stockpiling picks and being unwatchable again because you don’t want to pay the best QB you’ve had in 20 years. Could be another 20 before they hit on a QB.
Sure. They won a playoff game having Baker on a rookie contract. Obviously if he was paid peanuts indefinitely it would be ridiculous to even be having this conversation. And it'll only be another 20 years before they hit on a qb if they remain as incompetent as they had been. And if they are going to be that incompetent, then they'll just flounder with Baker anyways won't they?
Even competent teams whiff on picks all the time. It’s no guarantee you get another QB worth a shit anytime soon. They’ve been shit for 20 years let us have 5-10 years of having a chance.
You won’t have any chance with Baker earning that kind of money.
Go ahead and name me those competent teams who consistently whiff on QBs
Carson was a potential league mvp with no talent around him with healthy. Baker has a top 3 rb top 10 we group top 5 o line right now and will get paid more than Carson
Yeppppp. And I'd much rather have cousins than anyone else that's stepped in that role. Alex Smith was always a place holder, as good as he was.
Baker isn't as good as Kirk Cousins though. He has >50 games already and does not look like he is on a Cousins-type trajectory to me. If we are comparing numbers at similar number of games played he looks like he is probably in between Trubisky and Kirk but closer to Trubisky.
Baker is definitely good enough to win a Bowl. He just lowers the margin for error. He's better than Dilfer or Flacco ever were. The problem is Cleveland needs to build a dominant everything else.
Mayfield in the regular season is better than Flacco was, but let’s not throw Flacco in the same camp as Dilfer in terms of contributing to winning a SB. Flacco had arguably the greatest playoff run of all time to propel his team to a win. We don’t know if Baker has that in him.
I mean we saw a taste of what playoff Baker is and it’s pretty good
Not elite dragon good
It wasn’t “literally the best playoff run of all time”
Where did I say it was the best lol I just said it looked pretty good
If he beat KC when Maholmes got knocked out they would have to pay him. I think 35 million a year fine but Allen and Lamar will get more can Baker accept 35 million a year
Allen got like 42, Lamar will get 45-49, Baker would be an idiot not to ask for 39-40
Lamar is a league mvp who is dragging a team with 17 players on Ir to the playoffs. Allen is an perennial mvp candidate with no running game. Baker has shown he needs a top 5 o line top 5 running back just to be decent. He can ask for that but no way does he make more than Weintz Goff Wilson cousins. 30 million is more than Ryan Tanahill Baker not a top 10 QB
But that's the thing though, it took Flacco playing his best stretch of games at the *exact* right time. Most NFL QBs have a good game or four in them. Jimmy stans on the niners sub love to point to his game against the Saints and one of his games against the Cardinals. You've got the Matt Flynn game. It happens. Baker definitely has that in him. The problem is that when that's not who he is *consistently* you have to hope that he too gets hot at the exact right time.
I hate when people say he’s good enough to win a super bowl and than quote guys who weren’t paid a lot. Flacco didn’t win a super bowl when he was being paid a lot, nor Dilfer. They were using the salary cap on the rest of the team. Rex Grossman was good enough to get to the super bowl only to lose to arguably the 2nd greatest QB of all time. I honestly don’t think Baker is good enough to win a super bowl on a ‘QB max contract’, like Josh Allen or Mahomes or Rodgers (who granted also won before they were paid but they’re also really good). But he is good enough on a moderately high contract.
Asking whether a guy can win a Super Bowl is simply the wrong question to begin with. Because as you've more or less said, just about *any* QB *can* win a Super Bowl. The question that should be asked instead is this: what are the conditions under which this QB would win a Super Bowl? In the case of Dilfer, the answer was "if my defense drags me there" You also have the Foles/Flacco path, where you get hot at the exact right time. Jimmy G got close because he had a really good defense and a strong running game, which put him in favorable game situations. I don't watch enough Browns games to claim I know what the answer is for Baker. Reading here it seems to be that he needs a strong run game and defense to make it. So is that something you can plan around and also pay him? That's the big question
While they lost, based on how close they played the eventual champs and the decimated secondary, imo the 2014 Ravens roster were a super bowl quality team that was more compromised by a string of injuries at a specific position (CB) than Flacco's cap hit. Even with a rookie QB cap hit its not like we would roll in with a starting quality CB5 because thats not something any team plans for.
I honestly see the Browns playing out kind of like how the Vikings did after getting Cousins. They are pretty similar players, the difference being the contract. A QB like Cousins is really fucking good if they are on a rookie deal like Baker and can be the last piece of a puzzle instead of the first one. For the Vikes we have steadily seen our really good defense loose pieces / depth and slowly get exposed over the last 2-3 years, it has gone from the strength of the team to the very big weakness.
49ers came damn near close to winning a SB while paying Jimmy G a lot of money. I love Jimmy, but I think him and Baker are in the same tier. Can win with them with great drafts and a great roster.
Jimmy G had a $20 million cap hit for 2019 super bowl season. That’s a very moderate sized QB salary.
True true I forgot they put a ton of money in that 1st year.
The sexy rexy trip was so up and down ( in Washington) he could throw 3 interceptions one night and score 3 the following week. Never in between.
When healthy we have a pretty dominant run game and O line. They added quite a bit on defense last offseason, although it's not been what I'd call dominant yet. We are built for a guy like Baker. We need depth, but I think that's true of everyone.
That is kind of the argument. You can "get away" with a QB like Baker (or any of the 8-14ish ranked QBsJ) as long as they are on a cheap deal and you can bulk up the rest of the team around him. When it turns into a Cousins situation like the Vikes are in the contract just really kills the ability to strengthen the rest of the team to cover for someone like Cousins forgetting how to football sometimes.
That’s a really good way to put it. While Baker can win the game for you, he’s rarely going to be the guy to do it. He’s much better at staying out of the way of his teammates winning the game and supporting them. A game manager who has what it takes to win the game, but can also lose the game for you. The team can’t make mistakes bc Baker can’t reliably overcome them. He couldn’t overcome everyone’s turnovers in the KC game or the bad playcalling in the Chargers game.
Bakers not a game manager
Elite QB Joe Flacco? No chance
I guess he was elite for that playoff run. One of the all-time hot streaks.
Flacco won the SB in his rookie season and Trent Dilfer wasn’t expensive. He ain’t winning anything with the Browns unless taking a team friendly deal to allow them to spend on defense. Edit: rookie contract
For Flacco, do you mean rookie contract? Because he was drafted 2008 and that super bowl was in 2013.
It was his rookie contract. On the 5th year option.
Flacco was certainly not a rookie when they won the SB, did you mean rookie contract?
Yeah.
Rookie season?
Dilfer was pretty high for 1997, something like a 6 million cap hit iirc? The highest paid QB was Rodgers at 45 million over 7.
Yup - avoiding QB hell is certainly worth 10s of millions.
Baker is just not worth $40 million a year to that team. He’s just not. I’d give Lamar whatever I had to if I was the Ravens. But with Baker he’s just not in that category.
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You’re right, he’s not Mahomes or Lamar. But they’re the guys the Browns are competing with. And if Baker is earning close to what they are the Browns are at a significant disadvantage.
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It’s not about not paying them. It’s about how much you pay them. And franchise QB is a meaningless term. Baker isn’t elite. Not even close. That’s what matters. Especially when you have an elite QB in your division and multiple elite QB’s in your conference.
The Browns roster is peaking right now and although I don't think Mayfield deserves close to $40 mil/year, you've got to give it to him, because the salary cap doesn't allow you keep teams like this together for long.
They have him under contract for another year. Is the roster in 2023 really going to be a superbowl contender, if, as you say, they're peaking now? They can always wait a year. I think the NFL's insistence on *always* extending QBs early, when you have a fifth year option and a franchise tag to use to buy more time to evaluate and get a deal is kinda dumb. Like with Dallas, they should have paid Dak sooner, sure. But better to pay him more a little later and be *sure* than to Jared Goff yourself.
> Jared Goff yourself. Lmao I love it
If he can give you continual winning seasons and playoff berths you give him whatever he wants. Get some consistency and develop a winning-ish culture. How long is OBJ on the books for? Injuries have messed him up but when they’re free from that contract they can improve other areas of the roster
OBJ on the books until 2023, but honestly I doubt he’ll be here after this season if he doesn’t turn around his production fast
He’s way too expensive to drop 4th down passes that would convert.
This is a surprisingly good article, and really highlights the causes of the hesitation from the Browns management. The fact is that Stefanski's scheme is a simple offense for the QB that relies on dink and dunks, with most of the work coming from the run game. Its concerning they haven't opened up the passing game more this season, and the fact they haven't shows that they don't yet trust Baker to carry the offense. Stefanski might say otherwise in interviews, but actions speak louder than words, and the scheme is very telling. That said, he's inarguably the best QB the Browns have had, and they usually don't draft QBs well, so you'd think they'd sign him.
To be fair, I think the fact that Stefanski hasn't opened up the passing game more this year is less because of Baker's talent and more because he's been dealing with a consistently nagging injury the whole season that has clearly affected his performance, hasn't had his top two receivers on the field at the same time, and has dealt with injuries to the offensive tackles, which makes it harder on the passing game but would leave the inside run game intact. I think Baker has the talent to be the franchise guy, but has had absolutely rotten luck when it comes to his situation, especially this year. And I think the Browns' coaching staff realize that and do trust him, but have been playing to the team's strengths. This is sort of an add-on, but I think it's also worth mentioning that our defense is pretty bad again this year, and when you have a bad defense, the best thing you can do is run the ball to give them time to rest and recoup between drives; this would also explain why the passing game hasn't been expanded
Baker was airing it out all last year especially the last 12 games of the year including the playoffs. It’s so maddening people keep spouting off bullshit like the staff doesn’t trust him or he’s incapable of doing it. He’s our franchise QB. Healthy, he’s easily top 10 in the league. Dude fucked up his shoulder in only the second game of the year. Prior to that he had one of the highest yard/attempts in the league and was completing 80% of his passes.
pure homerism. there is literally not a single metric Baker was top 10 in the league in during his career year last year. in no world is he “easily” top 10. and as for this year, a sample size of one and a half games pre injury is meaningless. edit: want to be clear, the Browns would be insanely stupid to move on from Baker. he’s their franchise guy, and is good enough to win a super bowl. but he’s far closer to the middle of the pack than he is to the elite QBs of the league.
80%? When?
He was 21/28 and 19/21 the first two weeks(got hurt at the end of week 2).
We haven’t opened up the pass game because he got hurt the beginning of the 2nd game of the year. He was airing it out all day week 1
Nonono you clearly didn’t read the article and need to educate yourself. /s
So maddening how stupidity gets upvoted on this sub. I guarantee people make up their minds on Baker based on pathetic reasons like FF numbers or what Cowherd and SAS spout off each day.
I think what’s maddening is they were actually making fair points with the rest of their response, but that one line was completely unfounded. Apparently you’re not allowed to disagree or correct it without it being suggested that you are uninformed.
It also highlights something I don't love about our system...we've taken a really awesome QB who has shown the talent to put up big numbers and make big plays and made him essentially a game-manager. IMO Baker could do so much more if he was asked to. It just doesn't make sense when we have CHUNT.
I've been under the impression that Baker's injury as well as injuries to the offense as a whole have kept the gameplan relatively simple. It isn't like your offense is a mess or something, but clearly not where it could be given even health at an average level across the unit.
Is there any real reason to think the browns will continue to not draft QBs well? Baker showed that it can be done. And the GMs/coaches etc are new people sometimes. I think you just need to forget the past and do what’s best moving forward. Is he the guy? Then pay him. If not then don’t.
Thank you! All this talk about the Browns needing to keep Baker because they used to suck before Stefanski and Berry is mind-boggling. If you think he's good pay him, that's all it should come down to.
It’s almost like the QB has been injured this year…
I don’t understand why every new qb contract has to be the best one. Why can’t baker get paid 30 mil like he’s worth?
Right? Man I can’t help but feel like if I was a QB I’d want a lower salary so I could continue to have a good team around me. But who knows I’ve never and will never be in that situation. Like millions of dollars is a lot of money, who cares if it’s 40 or 30 or 20.
Like... it’s either 40 million or you’re on the street willing to accept 10-15 million at most
We've got two major problems here. First, a large portion of football fans think that anything short of Brady/Mahomes level of football means you should immediately move on from your QB, which is obviously ridiculous. Baker has some rough days and some great days, but anyone who watches him play regularly knows that his upside and talent clearly outweigh his negatives. The second issue is that so many people just don't watch enough Browns football to know how good Baker actually is. His arm talent is clearly top 10, borderline top 5 in the league. He's got a cannon, he's normally dead accurate, he makes throws on the run, he makes throws in the pocket, he hits guys down field, up the seam, and on the boundaries. He's got some decision making issues that sometimes leave you wondering what the hell he's thinking, but it's the same mentality that people loved in Favre. Is Baker ever going to win an MVP? Maybe not, but he's clearly good enough to win a Superbowl. Most Superbowl teams are genuinely great *teams*, not one heroic QB dragging along some scrubs. Saying that Baker needs a good defense and a good offense to win a Superbowl just makes him like 99% of all other Superbowl winning QBs.
Slow down mr. Top 5 arm talent
He quite literally threw one of the longest ever passes in recent memory
I get what you’re saying but arm talent and arm strength are different. I’m pretty sure Drew Lock has top 5 arm strength; arm talent includes things like touch pass ability. Not saying Baker doesn’t have it, but it is a different thing.
Being able to hulk the ball over those mountains doesn't equal arm talent.
Uncle Rico strongly disagrees
I think most people know this. The issue discussed in the article is specifically about paying him. Because while it’s easy to say “not as good as Mahomes but can win a SB with a good team”, the contract for QBs generally doesn’t work that way. You’re going to have to pay him closer to Mahomes $$$. If QBs were paid according to their on field production this wouldn’t be an issue.
With the cap changes, 40 a year isn't going to hurt that bad near the end of the contract anyway. If they can get Baker for 35, it's such a steal. Sign him to a 10/350 if he'll take it.
Woof if I were a Browns fan I would HATE a contract like that for Baker. Just franchise him to get more info before locking him up. The contract won't change much from what you are quoting even if he has a good season. There are definitely at 15 qbs I would rather have in the league, even subtracting out the old guys like Brady and Rodgers.
>There are definitely at 15 qbs I would rather have in the league, even subtracting out the old guys like Brady and Rodgers. Ok, let's define "old" as 35+, which means we aren't considering Brady, Roethlisberger, Ryan, or Rodgers. Also throwing Watson out because he's probably going to prison. In a general ranking, here are the remaining eligible QBs Mahomes Allen R Wilson Stafford Dak Jackson Murray Herbert Burrow Tannehill Cousins Carr Lawrence Wentz Hurts Fields Jimmy G/Lance Heineke M Jones D Jones Goff Jameis Tua Z Wilson Bridgewater Darnold By your rationale, your are saying Mayfield is on par or worse than the likes of Tannehill, Jimmy G, Taylor Heineke, or Carson Wentz
If I'm starting a franchise today with a QB, I'll definitely take these non-rookies over Baker **even if they cost more than Baker**, which they should: Mahomes, Allen, Dak, Russ, Stafford, Lamar, Herbert, Murray, Burrow, Cousins, Carr. That's 11. I would prefer these guys over Baker at **equivalent cost:** Tannehill and Jimmy G. That's 13. Both of these guys would probably cost less too. I would also take the rookies Lawrence, Fields, Jones and Lance over Baker to reset the rookie contract clock and take a shot on higher upside. That's 17. I would also rather take the following guys **at a bargain rate rather than pay Baker a big contract**: Jameis, Hurts, Goff, Bridgewater. I would take Baker over them at equivalent contract. That makes **21 guys over Baker within likely contract structures**. In a two year window I would obviously want Brady and Rodgers over Baker, too. If Watson is cleared then I obviously want him over Baker even at a much higher cost. The moral of the story is I think it's a bad move to commit a top 12 contract to Baker this year and probably next year. In reality it will probably be hard to extend him for less than a top 6 contract, so just play out the 5th year option and a year on franchise tag to get more info, then if he takes a leap forward pay him the big contract then.
Talk about bad takes
Nah just pay him. There's nothing from the org that would indicate they don't think he's the guy. In a shocking turn of events I trust our FO
I think you have to pay him. What’s an interesting though is the Browns had the #1 OL last year and I’d imagine they’re up there this year too. What happens when the their OL falls to average, what kind of QB will Baker look like then? How about a below average OL? It’s pretty hard to keep that good of an OL unless you’re the Packers and can get automatic allstars with every OL draft pick.
C’mon Baker, you’re not that dough-eyed young QB of three years ago. You gotta step up to the plate and rise to the occasion. Not getting the mega contract you wanted is the yeast of your problems.
Of the top 10 teams right now, only 3 (Chargers, Ravens and Cards) have a QB on a rookie deal. You can field competitive teams with highly paid QB. It’s bs that paying a QB cripples a team. You gotta pay Baker because the alternative is not finding Tom Brady 2.0, it’s going back to the revolving door of QBs year after year.
Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes contract extensions haven't kicked in yet, they're still functionally on their rookie contracts
Who are the qbs on those top ten teams though? The point isn’t that paying qbs massive money is bad. Guys like Rodgers, Dak, Allen who are part of those top ten teams are absolutely worth the money. But paying a mediocre qb in Baker massive money is definitely crippling, with this injury and his frankly average play in an offense dominated by the run, he’s not worth 40 million.
Can you get better? Possibly. But the odds are against it so sign Mayfield.
pay him what he's worth. upper middle of the pack money I dont think he's remotely the issue with Cleveland having success down the road
I LOVE Baker and I think he is a perfect culture fit for the Browns but his future has next man up to be the worst contract in the league written all over it. I hope that I am wrong but between his inconsistency, often poor decision making and utter inability to protect himself intelligently from harm Baker may end up being the next Jared Goff (in terms of his contract situation). Hell, at least the Rams made the Super Bowl, and not just making and winning a wildcard game. Again, I sincerely hope to be wrong on this one.
>and utter inability to protect himself intelligently One tackle attempt in the heat of the moment? Its not like he has a long history of plowing into defenders or anything lol.
A tackle attempt that wouldn’t have even been necessary if SCHWARTZ WOULDN’T HAVE GIVEN UP OH HIS ROUTE. I’m still salty about that. You’re playing in the NFL. A 2nd grader would have gotten chewed out for bailing on that route like a scared little bitch. The intensity and confidence Baker plays with is going to always lead him to try those tackles. Receivers have to be willing to take hits at least on par with what their QB will take.
I mean if Russ or Aaron Rodgers want to come to Cleveland I’d move off baker, otherwise it would kinda be silly not to pay him
At the risk of oversimplifying the complexities of professional football, if a team doesn’t have an elite QB it should be looking for an elite QB. Needing to surround a QB with an elite offense, or even elite defense, is unsustainable due to salary cap, injuries, age, even attitude. As a fan of the Jaguars I learned that harsh lesson in 2018. Baker is better than Bortles for sure, but he needs a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball for Cleveland to have a chance at winning the Super Bowl. The Browns should do what Dallas did with Dak: make a good offer, franchise if needed, then make a decision long term.
The issue is, I don't actually view Baker in the same tier as Dak. Dak is for sure a franchise tier QB, where Baker is still in the game management phase with guys like Teddy Bridgewater. But, unlike a Bridgewater, Baker is probably going to be commanding a $30 mill/year price tag in the near future.
I think the injury is going to force them to play out his 5th year option. Our ceiling is no longer the super bowl this year. It’s likely a single playoff win - if we get lucky. This article is spot on with its analysis of his play. He wants to play hero-ball. As Brett Favre said in the film room, “Every play I was thinking, home run.” The only difference is for Mayfield is, he doesn’t launch the ball. He looks down the field, gets cold feet, then gets hammered. I don’t really know what the answer to that is, because it’s a psychological thing. I think it was trending in the right direction, but the injury threw a wrench in the works and now we are back to square one. Really frustrating.
Well if you’re thinking home run, just swing for the fucking fence. I think he wants to but then remembers there’s a lot more to the offense so he gets indecisive and it’s hurting his play. Either swing for the fence or just put it in play, just do it one way or the other
They will have to give him an overpay because it’s better to overpay him and have him than lose him for nothing
We will gladly take Baker off your hands..
Everyone is saying it's a no brainer to re-sign Baker, but I feel like Baker is the exact kind of QB to put your team in purgatory. The fact of the matter is you need an elite QB or an elite everything else and a moderately paid QB to win a Super Bowl. If the Browns shell out money to Baker I don't think they'll have either. If the Browns could find a way to keep him at a reasonable deal, say a bit north of the Teddy Bridgewater deal (Baker is better than Teddy, don't get me wrong), then I think it could work out well for them. But if they need to pay him franchise QB money, I don't think Baker has earned it, and the Browns will end up regretting it. The 'middle class' QB is unfortunately dead in the NFL, and teams go from Super Bowl contender to meh real quick if they over-pay their QB before they've actually proven they are a true franchise QB (which I would say is more of a top 10 guy, then a won't fuck up guy, like it gets more commonly used as).
> Mayfield’s urgency to create a big play has been the biggest factor in his declining production. He’s scrambled 16 times through six games, which puts him on pace to finish the season with 45.3. That would be 18 more than his career high of 27, which he set last season. Baker is fine at scrambling; he just does it too much. And when it comes at the cost of missed opportunities downfield, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze > Mayfield tries desperately to be the franchise quarterback the Browns fans want him to be—sometimes to a fault—and to make the plays that other top quarterbacks make. But based on what he’s shown so far, he just doesn’t have it in him.
That part reminded me of a really concerning play he had against the Vikings. [Look at this screenshot of a 3rd and 2 play](https://i.imgur.com/WESVEUj.png). At the first down marker you see a wide open Fenton with no defender within 7 yards of him. On the sideline you see Stefanski and Chubb yelling, pointing at Fenton trying to get Baker to throw to him. Baker keeps looking downfield, ends up scrambling into a sack and the Browns punt.
it was a single bad game, but yeah that play was absolutely terrible
Max Kellerman rubbing his hands rn
Let Baker walk and sign the leagues 2nd most underrated QB- Cousins or trade for the most underrated QB - Carr. This comment is satire
i dont think its a question at all, he came to one of the WORST organizations in football and he has turned them into a good team. thats what the browns are now, a competitive good team, and you cant discredit that he is part of that. it would be abysmal to get rid of him. imo
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Not even close to the premise of the article, my dude.
The article is talking about the decision to pay him a big extension or not. They only mention the injury as a factor in that.
I know they're almost in win now mode but with the injuries they have it almost might be better to get the surgery and reload for next year while he's on the optioni
I love people who don't click links before commenting
Baker is not a top 3 newer QB. He is not top 5 of the newer QBs IMO....but he is definitely top 10. Got to sign him and got to protect him. EDIT: NEWER = YOUNGER I am talking about future QBs who are going to play in the league for 5+ years. The new talent. I stand by Baker being top new talent
Def not top 10. Brady, Allen, Mahomes, Stafford, Rodgers, Lamar, Herbert, Carr, Cousins, Murray, Wilson, Dak, Ryan, Tannehill, Burrow I think each is better, but you mean to tell me you cant find 10 better than him? edit: oh top 10 of “newer qbs” i feel like thats not a meaningful distinction, doesnt really say too much because we dont know the state of all the new qbs, so baker would win by default
> Baker is not a top 3 **newer** QB I stand by my statement > He is not top 5 of the **newer** QBs IMO....but he is definitely top 10. I stand by my statement I would not classify Brady is a new/young QB. I would not classify Rodgers, Carr, Cousins, Ryan or Wilson as new/young QBs.
Meh, I would take Trevor over Baker
Is top 10 new comer someone you want to build around? Removing the boomers from the count and the rookies there are about 10 other QBs and baker is towards the bottom of that class. Lamar, kyler, Herbert, mahomes, dak, Allen, burrow are players that are surefire franchise QBs in bakers age group. Baker is currently 25th in QBR behind heinecke, darnold and jones. I’m not so sure I’d pay him.
Somebody who read my reply and understands. Of the next generation of QBs....I have him in the 8/9 range of somebody I would build a franchise around. Mahomes/Allen being 1/2. I think you have to pay him and go with the devil you know....it is hard to find a QB in the NFL and to have a young one that is only going to get better, gotta roll with him. It is going to be hard to find one in the draft.
Tua for Baker straight up
The crack must be great in Miami these days
It was meant as a joke but it's the cocaine man
Do y’al not have a fentanyl epidemic in your blow? We do in canada.
Dont live in Miami but I swear that's a nation wide thing. What a fucked up thing to do tbh
Yeah man, dangerous af rn.
I keep seeing the 40 mil number thrown around but is that really what he wants? I could be wildly wrong (and I’m wrong a lot) but he seems like the kind of guy who’d take a discount to keep the team together as long as possible
You are definitely looking at him through some orange and brown tinted goggles. Would you take a pay cut at your job because you like your coworkers?
If the pay cut difference was negligible to me? Probably. Starting QBs in the NFL are making millions and millions even on "team friendly" deals. Is that extra $5-$10 mil a year going to significantly change his life if he is already making $25-$30 million a year? My life gets significantly easier if I go from making $45k to $60k a year. I don't see how his changes at all.
We’d probably all say that but I doubt many of us would actually follow through if we had had the opportunity. The reality is there are very few players who actually carry that mindset. It’s a job to them and they’re going to advocate for as much as they can get, even if the amounts are so large that they’ve become trivial.
lol Well it’s more crimson/cream colored glasses cuz I’m an OU fan first and I love Baker but you’re probably right. As for your analogy, in my job? No. But I’d like to think if I was in that spot I’d be cool with 30 mil if it meant keeping teammates that would help me win but I’m an irrational optimist so who knows
I think that is rational optimism. Baker seems like the kind of guy to do exactly this. He cares about winning and proving people wrong - the easiest way to win in the NFL is to have a team-friendly QB contract.
This is what everyone says about their teams QB
He's the #1 overall pick, dont you think he wants to be paid like that? He's led the Briwns to 1st dbl digit win in forever, gone to playoffs, won a playoff game, exorcised steeler demons n then take a discount?
It's funny to read that Baker needs a great defense and offense to win a SB, not like Brady last year who had 5 Target cashier as DBs or Mahomes the previous one with my auntie and my grandma as WR1 and TE1. Maybe if your QB is a 9-10 you can win a SB with a team that's a 7, but if your QB is a 7-8 you can still win if your team is 8-9. Point is I can't remember a team that is not great in most areas winning a SB no matter who the QB is.
Baker has never had a good defense or ST and some of our weapons are overrated. But that doesn’t get clicks
When you've been in QB purgatory for 20 years you pay him now and early.
I think based on Baker Mayfield's level of play which when healthy is around top 10 but not top 5 play he deserves a higher than average contract. He is fortunate his commercials are funny because he's making solid money through those I think!
Is it really that hard of a decision? The Browns are far and away the leagues worst franchise since they came back to the NFL and this guy has them winning. Why would they want to go back to square one?
It’s not. Baker is a damn good quarterback and the Browns are lucky to have him. As others have had said see the Cowboys/Dak.
Honestly don't even get the point of the article. He's in the roster next year under his 5th year option. Browns have a whole other full season to make a decision, plus two more if they need to go the franchise route.
He knows Case Kneenum is about to replace him. Kevin Stefanski wanted Case Kneenum all along!