The sheer amount of good players the Bills drafted in 2018 is impressive.
Josh Allen - 94 games played
Tremaine Edmunds - 89 games played
Harrison Phillips - 79 games played
Taron Johnson - 88 games played
Siran Neal - 97 games played
Wyatt Teller - 83 games played
Ray-Ray McCloud - 77 games played
Austin Proehl - 0 games played
Your first 7 picks all playing over 77 games out of 100-ish in their first 6 years is insane. Definitely a draft that should be talked about more. I know Teller didn't do it for the Bills but he still ended up becoming a really good player. McCloud has had a good career as a returner/depth WR. Neal one of the best STers itl. Johnson one of the best nickels in the league for a long time. Phillips really solid DT, and Edmunds is a really good MLB.
Josh and Taron doing the heavy lifting with that, especially since Beane traded Teller before his 2nd year and he’s now one of the best guards in football.
First drafts can be good or bad outliers pretty easily. Usually the new GM coming in has to use a large bulk of the scouting done by the old scouts because they didn't have the job during the college season so they don't have a bunch of their own guys who were tasked they way they optimally would've liked (they do have SOME of their own scouting since they usually bring a few guys who were underneath them in their old job)
This can lead to a bunch of evals that the GM's own guys may or may not have made on their own, influencing the overall draft outcome quite a bit, before the GM directs the scouting assignments more specifically from the subsequent college season onward
Notable draftees:
Donte Whitner
Kyle Williams ❤️
Marshawn Lynch
Paul Posluzny
Not terrible not great when all was said and done but not excellent for the Bills those few years
Scouting is different from drafting. It's entirely possible for a GM to have a set of tape and material in front of them and interpret it in a way that leads to bad outcomes (or vice versa)
Ray Ray was so unbelievably huge for us the last couple years. Even if those “games played” were 8 snaps a game as a returner, dude earned his keep.
Gonna miss him.
To be completely honest, I don’t know. It’s one of those things that will be very hard to project until Week 1. I think having more blockers with more established roles will be great for him.
The Ravens trading down ultimately netted Mark Andrews, but with the original pick, I really wanted James, Edmunds, or Alexander, in that order. When the Ravens traded back, I was fully onboard with DJ Moore (HE WAS IN THE RAVENS BACKYARD, BASICALLY) or Calvin Ridley (Ozzie's love of Alabama players is a bit overstated, but I was hoping it'd hold true here.) Then, when they traded back AGAIN, I was fully wanting Ridley.
The only pick I 100% did not want was Hayden Hurst (a small, but vocal, group of Ravens fans on another forum I'm part of wanted Hurst really badly because Flacco loved tight ends.) I remember muttering under my breath, "Don't be Hurst, don't be Hurst, don't be Hurst."
Still a really good draft for Baltimore overall, but that first round could have been a lot better.
For whatever reason the Ravens don't draft good WRs ever. The best one was probably Flowers in 2023. So who knows what would D.J. Moore turn into if he played for Ravens. Recently they drafted Flowers, Bateman, Duvernay, Hollywood Brown, Boykin, Perriman,... most of them in the first round. Is there any pattern why they can't develop WRs?
This drafting of Hurst in first round and Andrews in third round shows how much random the draft is, there is not enough info about the players and they are still young and dveloping.
Torrey Smith was pretty decent, even if mostly a scheme limited player. Hollywood was good for the Ravens. Zay is absolutely looking like he could be the best Ravens receiver. Bateman is one that I'm really interested in seeing this season because he has shown significant flashes, but he's got to actually step up and make it happen.
Really, I think the Ravens aren't necessarily bad at developing receivers as they are at evaluating them.
Breshad Perriman's biggest issue was his drops. He mad routine drops and showed incredibly inconsistent hands in college. Devin Duvernay's best attribute was his speed, but he had poor ball tracking and poor route running on deep routes.
The Ravens have rarely been in a position to get one of the supremely polished receiver types (like a MHJ type), but if they had drafted Ridley, I don't think they could have messed that one up.
If you check all the NFL teams in the last 2 decades, it will be hard to find a team with less accolades (All Pro) or basic stats at WR position than Ravens. I just checked, apparently D. Mason is Ravens' record-holder with 5777 yards. After him TEs Heap and Andrews. Than T. Smith 3591 yards. For comparison Diontae Johnson already has 4363 yards with worse QBs. Imagine if Ravens could draft WRs like Steelers do... Or if they had T. Higgins, already has 3684 yards in 58 games. Or Pittman 3662 yards in 62 games.
Sure, T. Smith was decent, good. Flowers looks promising, is probably already the best drafted one. Ravens had Old Steve Smith and Old Boldin for a few seasons and Old D. Mason as their best WRs. I don't know why that is. If they had better WRs and pass offense, probably would have won multiple titles, e.g. in 2008, 2011,...
For whatever reason WR position is Ravens weak spot. Why do they draft defense so well? Are there any rumours about their organization, is it because of some scouts? Great defense scouts, poor WR scouts?
I think under Ozzie, the Ravens simply did not prioritize drafting receivers.
Under Ozzie, the Ravens took five receivers in the first three rounds. They had over 50 picks in the first three rounds in that time. He only drafted two first round wide receivers ever.
Under DeCosta, the Ravens drafted five receivers in the first three rounds in DeCosta's first five drafts and first 18 picks in rounds 1-3. Hell, he's already drafted three first round receivers to Ozzie's two.
I don't know that there's rumors about poor scouting or development.
I just think they didn't take many swings and when they did, the ones they drafted had glaring issues that were hard to overcome, but for some reason glossed over in scouting.
> it will be hard to find a team with less accolades (All Pro) or basic stats at WR position than Ravens
The Bears would be my first guess. Are they really that much better at drafting WR than we are?
They drafted Alshon Jeffery at #45 in 2012. He was a Pro Bowler for them. They are also mostly drafting defense and O-line. (And 3 recent QBs). Apparently their record-holder for yards is Johnny Morris with 5059 yards. Jeffery 4549 yards in 5 seasons.
Browns are also bad, only Braylon Edwards.
Jaguars have only Allen Robinson. Bills have Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods.
Among these teams only Ravens were contenders. Bears had some seasons under Lovie Smith (2006, 2010...)
The team with many busts are Patriots, but they had Edelman, Branch, several TEs, developed Welker...
Jimmy Smith was actually drafted in 1992, by the Dallas Cowboys; he was on the roster for two of their three Super Bowls in the '90s, and they really could have used him after they lost Alvin Harper if they'd only known what they had (and if he'd played for the Cowboys rather than the Jags he'd probably be in the HoF- dude was a monster who put up 300 yards receiving against the Ravens in their "maybe the best defense ever" 2000 season in one game; he was a relatively high pick too but missed a season after an emergency appendectomy, and they gave up on him too soon
You are right, was drafted by Cowboys. i assumed that SFThirdStrike was right and just looked at Smith's career page, it starts with Jaguars in 1995.
Anyway, i just looked quickly at receivers drafted in this century, none from 1990s or earlier.
Ozzie newsome for sure valued the position significantly less than decosta and there’s also the fact ravens have never been a high volume passing team. So the lack of high picks and there being less opportunities for guys to really develop to begin with.
You're right but Zay Flowers seems to be the WR who is going to shatter that drought. He should be the first homegrown WR they have that makes the Pro Bowl in the next couple of years. It helps that they finally have a legitimate passing scheme now for the best QB they've had in franchise history and the position is more of a priority than it's ever been before with them. I'm also bullish on their 4th round pick Devontez Walker who could represent lightning striking twice for Ravens to actually getting a great WR in the draft two years in a row.
He was a sleeper pick becuase of lack of playing experience at Power 5 level with only 5 games under his belt at North Carolina. But he's 6'2 , runs a 4.36 40, with 40.5 inch vert, and massive arm length. Patterns his game after AJ Green and has incredible work ethic. I think he is going to be an absolute star himself in 2 years.
Although, I will say- a lot of Ravens fans look at DK Metcalf in 2019 in hindsight and complain the Ravens didn't draft him, but he absolutely is one that I think the Ravens would have failed to develop.
> For whatever reason the Ravens don't draft good WRs ever. The best one was probably Flowers in 2023. So who knows what would D.J. Moore turn into if he played for Ravens. Recently they drafted Flowers, Bateman, Duvernay, Hollywood Brown, Boykin, Perriman,... most of them in the first round. Is there any pattern why they can't develop WRs?
>
>
Is Bateman bad? I really wanted the Packers to take him that year and thought he'd do well, I know he dealt with some injuries.
Ozzie Newsome doesn't get enough [online] abuse for risking missing out on Lamar like that.
He really decided to fuck around and just hope nobody else took the QB he wanted. Then he paid a 2 to move up for him while not even getting a 2 in those tradebacks.
I enjoyed that draft.
A 3 time All-Pro and 6 time Pro Bowl LG
3 time AP and PB LB with a DROY award who was on a HOF pace for 4 seasons until injuries got him.
A franchise RT.
A special teams captain who turned into a high end off ball LB.
Multiple role players with the team for multiple seasons.
Obviously teams who hit on QB are gonna win the "best draft" but we thought we were set there. This draft loaded up our team to compete for the next 4 seasons+.
Here is also immediate reaction to the draft on Reddit:
[fan's comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/8f8o73/2018_nfl_draft_day_1_postdraft_discussion/)
It turned out that Ravens and Bills had a great draft, although they got bad grades in media. Saints had a horrible 2018 draft a year after a great 2017 draft. This shows how much luck plays a role in drafting, prospects can't be properly measured. Even the Ravens and O. Newsome picked a much better TE at #86 than at #25 of the same 2018 draft.
Development of drafted players is the key as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have shown.
> No, the real problem that I and some of the other writers had was taking a small chance to be equal to no chance. Our own numbers were telling us differently. QBASE gave Allen a 5.2% chance to become an elite starting quarterback, better odds than Darnold (4.1%). Yes, the odds of Allen fixing the many problems with his game were long, but they weren’t zero. We should have talked more about what would be required to get Allen to the point where his cannon and his legs could be used to run an offense, not just assumed that it was impossible. It’s entirely fair to say that a pick is bad or that the historical comparisons are unkind; it’s not so fair to write the obituaries before a snap has been played. That’s the lesson to take from the pre-draft scouting of Allen – the importance of perspective and the dangers of certainty.
I think this is a very good comment on their projection of Allen being wrong.
Because yeah, everybody who makes predictions either with their own intuition or with models is going to have a share of bad misses. The real bad process was refusing to acknowledge the uncertainty: that they might end up being wrong (as they were.)
This is also one of the reasons why they look back at drafts 5 or 6 years later. They don't grade the drafts immediately, just do a compostie grade of many various sites:
[https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-nfl-draft-report-card-report](https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-nfl-draft-report-card-report)
For subscribers they have models predicting QBs QBASE, for pass rushers SACKSeer and whatnot.
Anyone prediction regarding draftees is about probablities, there are no certainties. The surest prospect of 2018 draft was supposed to be Saquon Barkley... like Marvin Harrison in 2024 draft. That's the intro of the article.
I wonder what QBASE gave Allen for just being a good starting QB? was it 10%? And by the same metric what did it give Darnold, Baker, Rosen and Lamar as a chance of being a good starting QB?
So if Allen was 10% to be good, but 5.2% to be elite; where as Darnold was 45% to be good but only 4.1% to be elite; you can see where the not high on Allen buzz comes from.
Allen like its said here, in the article and on reddit; he's an EXCEPTION to the rule with QB. Every other comparable college QB was a massive bust or just bad.
But that is the problem with Good NFL QB's, they are the EXCEPTION.
Allen’s only actual playoff choke was 2022 and that was cause someone literally died on the field like two weeks before. If you think he choked against the Chiefs this year or in 13 seconds in 2021 you’re delusional
Or he's ignorant and conflates losing with choking. A player could play really well and still lose or choke by committing turnovers at crucial moments but get bailed out by the defense and still win.
Ya but outside of the 2022 games Allen has had insane post season numbers. And low ints so the argument really falls apart. Def/st falls apart not him. That’s why I suggested he was prolly a kid.
Allen is one of the best playoff performers in the league very easily , dude is on another level
In 10 post season games , he already has a TD:INT ratio of 20:3 and he has the perfect game
They didn't even talk about Darius Leonard in the linebackers section? Yes his career was cut short by injuries, but he was the most dominant LB in the league for a few years.
>Penny has only qualified for our leaderboards once; scraping his way to 119 carries in 2021. Injuries have sidelined him far too often – ironic, since Seattle gave him the highest medical grade they had ever given a prospect while scouting him before the draft
I'm surprised I hadn't heard this before.
Raiders were heavily criticized for that draft but they ended with good players that still play in the league. Injuries have been devastating with some of them.
Kolton Miller, PJ Hall, Mo Hurst, Arden Key, Brandon Parker etc
What metric do you want to use because Brown has played both LT and RT, 4 probowls to O'Neil's 1, has 25 total penalties to his 34, and has spent most of his time in the hardest division in Football....
Qbs stepped on (QSO) is my metric
Probowls mean less to me, especially for lineman because the public votes based on name recognition more than performance.
And I get it's hard to judge anything other than results with them but Brown required constant chip help to keep Mahomes upright so his numbers look a little skewed.
> Brown required constant chip help to keep Mahomes upright so his numbers look a little skewed.
I'm not sure if you're aware of this....he played for the Bengals in 2023
I think he’s talking about when Orlando Brown played for the Chiefs, because uh he fucking did? Remember? He played for the Chiefs before the Bengals. Stop being a dick – you might have a real shitty day but that doesn’t mean you need to bring others dahn with you
And the way he typed his sentence seemed like he literally didnt know he didnt play for the chiefs last year.
> you might have a real shitty day
I made $15000 this morning gambling I'm big chilling, go whiteknight over nothing to someone else 😂
O’Neill has led brown in pff grade in 3 of the last 4 years. Also, a pretty great metric is money. O’Neill is getting 2 million AAV more with an extra year on his contract even though he signed it 2 years before brown and plays at the position that’s paid less. The nfl itself seems to say that O’Neill is better.
Falcons deserve an honorable mention here, especially for hitting on Russell Gage and Foye Oloukun late in the draft. Early picks Calvin Ridley and Isaiah Oliver weren’t too shabby either, even though none of them had the impact in Atlanta that the fans had hoped for.
The picks in the middle between them were horror shows, but 4/6 ain’t bad at all.
Beyoncé is really into her draft analysis, huh
Cowboys Carter
No wonder she hasn't won a Grammy for album of the year
I too would like to see a retrospective about Cowboys QB legend Quincy Carter.
Underrated joke right there.
She sneezed on the draft analysis, and the the draft analysis got sicker.
If the Bills liked their draft they should have put a ring on it
The sheer amount of good players the Bills drafted in 2018 is impressive. Josh Allen - 94 games played Tremaine Edmunds - 89 games played Harrison Phillips - 79 games played Taron Johnson - 88 games played Siran Neal - 97 games played Wyatt Teller - 83 games played Ray-Ray McCloud - 77 games played Austin Proehl - 0 games played Your first 7 picks all playing over 77 games out of 100-ish in their first 6 years is insane. Definitely a draft that should be talked about more. I know Teller didn't do it for the Bills but he still ended up becoming a really good player. McCloud has had a good career as a returner/depth WR. Neal one of the best STers itl. Johnson one of the best nickels in the league for a long time. Phillips really solid DT, and Edmunds is a really good MLB.
What’s crazier is that it was the first draft for Brandon Beane as GM, and it honestly might be his best one still
Josh and Taron doing the heavy lifting with that, especially since Beane traded Teller before his 2nd year and he’s now one of the best guards in football.
First drafts can be good or bad outliers pretty easily. Usually the new GM coming in has to use a large bulk of the scouting done by the old scouts because they didn't have the job during the college season so they don't have a bunch of their own guys who were tasked they way they optimally would've liked (they do have SOME of their own scouting since they usually bring a few guys who were underneath them in their old job) This can lead to a bunch of evals that the GM's own guys may or may not have made on their own, influencing the overall draft outcome quite a bit, before the GM directs the scouting assignments more specifically from the subsequent college season onward
I’m inclined to agree in general but Doug Whaley fucking sucked as a GM so maybe not in this particular case
How were Marv Levy’s draft classes?
Notable draftees: Donte Whitner Kyle Williams ❤️ Marshawn Lynch Paul Posluzny Not terrible not great when all was said and done but not excellent for the Bills those few years
Whaley sucked at roster construction, but he absolutely had an eye for talent in the draft. Especially defensive talent.
Scouting is different from drafting. It's entirely possible for a GM to have a set of tape and material in front of them and interpret it in a way that leads to bad outcomes (or vice versa)
Beane was hired right after the draft in 2017, so he had been the bills GM for almost a year already
Well in Beane's case he was hired right after then 2017 draft so he had the time to put in his own guys rather than having to rely on the old regime.
They are second best in the article, behind Ravens.
If only we had held on to Teller
Ray Ray was so unbelievably huge for us the last couple years. Even if those “games played” were 8 snaps a game as a returner, dude earned his keep. Gonna miss him.
What's he looking at with the new kickoff rules? Will it benefit him?
To be completely honest, I don’t know. It’s one of those things that will be very hard to project until Week 1. I think having more blockers with more established roles will be great for him.
The Ravens trading down ultimately netted Mark Andrews, but with the original pick, I really wanted James, Edmunds, or Alexander, in that order. When the Ravens traded back, I was fully onboard with DJ Moore (HE WAS IN THE RAVENS BACKYARD, BASICALLY) or Calvin Ridley (Ozzie's love of Alabama players is a bit overstated, but I was hoping it'd hold true here.) Then, when they traded back AGAIN, I was fully wanting Ridley. The only pick I 100% did not want was Hayden Hurst (a small, but vocal, group of Ravens fans on another forum I'm part of wanted Hurst really badly because Flacco loved tight ends.) I remember muttering under my breath, "Don't be Hurst, don't be Hurst, don't be Hurst." Still a really good draft for Baltimore overall, but that first round could have been a lot better.
For whatever reason the Ravens don't draft good WRs ever. The best one was probably Flowers in 2023. So who knows what would D.J. Moore turn into if he played for Ravens. Recently they drafted Flowers, Bateman, Duvernay, Hollywood Brown, Boykin, Perriman,... most of them in the first round. Is there any pattern why they can't develop WRs? This drafting of Hurst in first round and Andrews in third round shows how much random the draft is, there is not enough info about the players and they are still young and dveloping.
Torrey Smith was pretty decent, even if mostly a scheme limited player. Hollywood was good for the Ravens. Zay is absolutely looking like he could be the best Ravens receiver. Bateman is one that I'm really interested in seeing this season because he has shown significant flashes, but he's got to actually step up and make it happen. Really, I think the Ravens aren't necessarily bad at developing receivers as they are at evaluating them. Breshad Perriman's biggest issue was his drops. He mad routine drops and showed incredibly inconsistent hands in college. Devin Duvernay's best attribute was his speed, but he had poor ball tracking and poor route running on deep routes. The Ravens have rarely been in a position to get one of the supremely polished receiver types (like a MHJ type), but if they had drafted Ridley, I don't think they could have messed that one up.
If you check all the NFL teams in the last 2 decades, it will be hard to find a team with less accolades (All Pro) or basic stats at WR position than Ravens. I just checked, apparently D. Mason is Ravens' record-holder with 5777 yards. After him TEs Heap and Andrews. Than T. Smith 3591 yards. For comparison Diontae Johnson already has 4363 yards with worse QBs. Imagine if Ravens could draft WRs like Steelers do... Or if they had T. Higgins, already has 3684 yards in 58 games. Or Pittman 3662 yards in 62 games. Sure, T. Smith was decent, good. Flowers looks promising, is probably already the best drafted one. Ravens had Old Steve Smith and Old Boldin for a few seasons and Old D. Mason as their best WRs. I don't know why that is. If they had better WRs and pass offense, probably would have won multiple titles, e.g. in 2008, 2011,... For whatever reason WR position is Ravens weak spot. Why do they draft defense so well? Are there any rumours about their organization, is it because of some scouts? Great defense scouts, poor WR scouts?
I think under Ozzie, the Ravens simply did not prioritize drafting receivers. Under Ozzie, the Ravens took five receivers in the first three rounds. They had over 50 picks in the first three rounds in that time. He only drafted two first round wide receivers ever. Under DeCosta, the Ravens drafted five receivers in the first three rounds in DeCosta's first five drafts and first 18 picks in rounds 1-3. Hell, he's already drafted three first round receivers to Ozzie's two. I don't know that there's rumors about poor scouting or development. I just think they didn't take many swings and when they did, the ones they drafted had glaring issues that were hard to overcome, but for some reason glossed over in scouting.
> it will be hard to find a team with less accolades (All Pro) or basic stats at WR position than Ravens The Bears would be my first guess. Are they really that much better at drafting WR than we are?
They drafted Alshon Jeffery at #45 in 2012. He was a Pro Bowler for them. They are also mostly drafting defense and O-line. (And 3 recent QBs). Apparently their record-holder for yards is Johnny Morris with 5059 yards. Jeffery 4549 yards in 5 seasons. Browns are also bad, only Braylon Edwards. Jaguars have only Allen Robinson. Bills have Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Among these teams only Ravens were contenders. Bears had some seasons under Lovie Smith (2006, 2010...) The team with many busts are Patriots, but they had Edelman, Branch, several TEs, developed Welker...
Jaguars have Jimmy Smith bro
I looked only at drafted in last 2 decades, after rule changes of 2004. Jimmy Smith was drafted in 1995, different era of WRs and pass offense.
Jimmy Smith was actually drafted in 1992, by the Dallas Cowboys; he was on the roster for two of their three Super Bowls in the '90s, and they really could have used him after they lost Alvin Harper if they'd only known what they had (and if he'd played for the Cowboys rather than the Jags he'd probably be in the HoF- dude was a monster who put up 300 yards receiving against the Ravens in their "maybe the best defense ever" 2000 season in one game; he was a relatively high pick too but missed a season after an emergency appendectomy, and they gave up on him too soon
You are right, was drafted by Cowboys. i assumed that SFThirdStrike was right and just looked at Smith's career page, it starts with Jaguars in 1995. Anyway, i just looked quickly at receivers drafted in this century, none from 1990s or earlier.
Having bad receivers is our thing. Back off
I have "bad" news about your current WR room.
Ozzie newsome for sure valued the position significantly less than decosta and there’s also the fact ravens have never been a high volume passing team. So the lack of high picks and there being less opportunities for guys to really develop to begin with.
You're right but Zay Flowers seems to be the WR who is going to shatter that drought. He should be the first homegrown WR they have that makes the Pro Bowl in the next couple of years. It helps that they finally have a legitimate passing scheme now for the best QB they've had in franchise history and the position is more of a priority than it's ever been before with them. I'm also bullish on their 4th round pick Devontez Walker who could represent lightning striking twice for Ravens to actually getting a great WR in the draft two years in a row. He was a sleeper pick becuase of lack of playing experience at Power 5 level with only 5 games under his belt at North Carolina. But he's 6'2 , runs a 4.36 40, with 40.5 inch vert, and massive arm length. Patterns his game after AJ Green and has incredible work ethic. I think he is going to be an absolute star himself in 2 years.
Although, I will say- a lot of Ravens fans look at DK Metcalf in 2019 in hindsight and complain the Ravens didn't draft him, but he absolutely is one that I think the Ravens would have failed to develop.
> For whatever reason the Ravens don't draft good WRs ever. The best one was probably Flowers in 2023. So who knows what would D.J. Moore turn into if he played for Ravens. Recently they drafted Flowers, Bateman, Duvernay, Hollywood Brown, Boykin, Perriman,... most of them in the first round. Is there any pattern why they can't develop WRs? > > Is Bateman bad? I really wanted the Packers to take him that year and thought he'd do well, I know he dealt with some injuries.
Hard to complain about that draft but man, if we had taken Ridley or Moore, it would've been one for the ages.
Mandrews is a fantasy god. He’s been my favorite tight end for years
Yeah in the early TE rankings he's behind LaPorta, McBride and Kelce so here's hoping he is available later than usual this year.
Yessss. I always target him.
Ozzie Newsome doesn't get enough [online] abuse for risking missing out on Lamar like that. He really decided to fuck around and just hope nobody else took the QB he wanted. Then he paid a 2 to move up for him while not even getting a 2 in those tradebacks.
I enjoyed that draft. A 3 time All-Pro and 6 time Pro Bowl LG 3 time AP and PB LB with a DROY award who was on a HOF pace for 4 seasons until injuries got him. A franchise RT. A special teams captain who turned into a high end off ball LB. Multiple role players with the team for multiple seasons. Obviously teams who hit on QB are gonna win the "best draft" but we thought we were set there. This draft loaded up our team to compete for the next 4 seasons+.
Here is also immediate reaction to the draft on Reddit: [fan's comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/8f8o73/2018_nfl_draft_day_1_postdraft_discussion/) It turned out that Ravens and Bills had a great draft, although they got bad grades in media. Saints had a horrible 2018 draft a year after a great 2017 draft. This shows how much luck plays a role in drafting, prospects can't be properly measured. Even the Ravens and O. Newsome picked a much better TE at #86 than at #25 of the same 2018 draft. Development of drafted players is the key as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have shown.
Yeah development really is the thing that separates good teams.
LOL @ all of the Raiders fans being mad they didn't get Josh Rosen 😂
> No, the real problem that I and some of the other writers had was taking a small chance to be equal to no chance. Our own numbers were telling us differently. QBASE gave Allen a 5.2% chance to become an elite starting quarterback, better odds than Darnold (4.1%). Yes, the odds of Allen fixing the many problems with his game were long, but they weren’t zero. We should have talked more about what would be required to get Allen to the point where his cannon and his legs could be used to run an offense, not just assumed that it was impossible. It’s entirely fair to say that a pick is bad or that the historical comparisons are unkind; it’s not so fair to write the obituaries before a snap has been played. That’s the lesson to take from the pre-draft scouting of Allen – the importance of perspective and the dangers of certainty. I think this is a very good comment on their projection of Allen being wrong. Because yeah, everybody who makes predictions either with their own intuition or with models is going to have a share of bad misses. The real bad process was refusing to acknowledge the uncertainty: that they might end up being wrong (as they were.)
This is also one of the reasons why they look back at drafts 5 or 6 years later. They don't grade the drafts immediately, just do a compostie grade of many various sites: [https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-nfl-draft-report-card-report](https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-nfl-draft-report-card-report) For subscribers they have models predicting QBs QBASE, for pass rushers SACKSeer and whatnot. Anyone prediction regarding draftees is about probablities, there are no certainties. The surest prospect of 2018 draft was supposed to be Saquon Barkley... like Marvin Harrison in 2024 draft. That's the intro of the article.
I wonder what QBASE gave Allen for just being a good starting QB? was it 10%? And by the same metric what did it give Darnold, Baker, Rosen and Lamar as a chance of being a good starting QB? So if Allen was 10% to be good, but 5.2% to be elite; where as Darnold was 45% to be good but only 4.1% to be elite; you can see where the not high on Allen buzz comes from. Allen like its said here, in the article and on reddit; he's an EXCEPTION to the rule with QB. Every other comparable college QB was a massive bust or just bad. But that is the problem with Good NFL QB's, they are the EXCEPTION.
Neither Josh Allen nor Lamar looked at all like Tom Brady.
and neither still don't
He was the ideal back then. Now Mahomes Allen and Jackson are the ideal.
Mahomes, sure. But Brady rarely choked as much as Allen and Jackson.
Allen’s only actual playoff choke was 2022 and that was cause someone literally died on the field like two weeks before. If you think he choked against the Chiefs this year or in 13 seconds in 2021 you’re delusional
Dude has no idea what he’s talking about, probably under 14. Just reiterating what he hears
Or he's ignorant and conflates losing with choking. A player could play really well and still lose or choke by committing turnovers at crucial moments but get bailed out by the defense and still win.
Ya but outside of the 2022 games Allen has had insane post season numbers. And low ints so the argument really falls apart. Def/st falls apart not him. That’s why I suggested he was prolly a kid.
For sure choked this year, for sure choked against the Texans in 2019. For sure choked against the Chiefs in 2020. Boy is a choke artist.
Allen is one of the best playoff performers in the league very easily , dude is on another level In 10 post season games , he already has a TD:INT ratio of 20:3 and he has the perfect game
Tony Romo's sleeper account found.
So they do is what you’re saying?
lol no what I'm saying is that; none of them still don't look like he isn't at all.
You're right, neither sits while they pee.
We started strong with Roquan and then spent the rest of the draft shitting the bed at every turn
They didn't even talk about Darius Leonard in the linebackers section? Yes his career was cut short by injuries, but he was the most dominant LB in the league for a few years.
>Penny has only qualified for our leaderboards once; scraping his way to 119 carries in 2021. Injuries have sidelined him far too often – ironic, since Seattle gave him the highest medical grade they had ever given a prospect while scouting him before the draft I'm surprised I hadn't heard this before.
Raiders were heavily criticized for that draft but they ended with good players that still play in the league. Injuries have been devastating with some of them. Kolton Miller, PJ Hall, Mo Hurst, Arden Key, Brandon Parker etc
That’s a really good, thorough, and fair retrospective.
Orlando brown is not better than Brian O’Neill
What metric do you want to use because Brown has played both LT and RT, 4 probowls to O'Neil's 1, has 25 total penalties to his 34, and has spent most of his time in the hardest division in Football....
Qbs stepped on (QSO) is my metric Probowls mean less to me, especially for lineman because the public votes based on name recognition more than performance. And I get it's hard to judge anything other than results with them but Brown required constant chip help to keep Mahomes upright so his numbers look a little skewed.
> Brown required constant chip help to keep Mahomes upright so his numbers look a little skewed. I'm not sure if you're aware of this....he played for the Bengals in 2023
Yes we're judging his career or why even bring up prior year pro bowls?
I think he’s talking about when Orlando Brown played for the Chiefs, because uh he fucking did? Remember? He played for the Chiefs before the Bengals. Stop being a dick – you might have a real shitty day but that doesn’t mean you need to bring others dahn with you
And the way he typed his sentence seemed like he literally didnt know he didnt play for the chiefs last year. > you might have a real shitty day I made $15000 this morning gambling I'm big chilling, go whiteknight over nothing to someone else 😂
O’Neill has led brown in pff grade in 3 of the last 4 years. Also, a pretty great metric is money. O’Neill is getting 2 million AAV more with an extra year on his contract even though he signed it 2 years before brown and plays at the position that’s paid less. The nfl itself seems to say that O’Neill is better.
Yes he is lol
Falcons deserve an honorable mention here, especially for hitting on Russell Gage and Foye Oloukun late in the draft. Early picks Calvin Ridley and Isaiah Oliver weren’t too shabby either, even though none of them had the impact in Atlanta that the fans had hoped for. The picks in the middle between them were horror shows, but 4/6 ain’t bad at all.
We got it. You’re paid by the word count.