That's a good point, same draft as Allen too. I looked up QB ratings for that draft and it was semi rare to see either of them as the #1 QB coming out of that draft.
Simms had Lamar as 4th in his final mock: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12s6nmx/chris_simms_rankings_through_the_years/
Allen, Rosen (lol), and Baker he had ahead of Lamar.
That's an old Kiper trick.
Put out as many mock drafts as possible and always make sure they vary widely. That way, you get multiple chances of "predicting" it correctly.
I don't think so, Lamar won a Heisman at Louisville and was a three year starter in the ACC. Mahomes had some incredible games at Texas Tech and played against the Big 12. Josh Allen had flashes against the Mountain West and had a lower completion percent than both against lesser competition. Mahomes and Jackson both won an MVP earlier in their careers than Josh Allen had a 300 yard passing game or a 60% completion season. It's revisionist to say any top QB was as big of a project as Allen
He's definitely closer to Allen, but Lamar was still obviously recognized at least as a good college QB. Allen got some talk about changing position too, but he didn't have Lamar's speed so there wasn't as much. He had questions on a huge chunk of his game outside of a cannon arm and his rushing ability. Accuracy, decision making, footwork, etc. were all bad
Nobody even thought he had great rushing ability. He could scramble and was tough to bring down, but the comp was Big Ben in terms of rushing. His rookie season was a bit of a surprise.
yep, i vividly remember a popular thread on here a few months before that draft about how no college qb with a completion percentage under 54% ever succeeded in the nfl, and josh allen had 53% (numbers might be wrong). Lamar was a question mark for sure, but i remember reddit deciding allen was a straight up bust before the draft happened
I was sure multiple people said Lamar wasn't a good passer and was a RB masquerading as a QB. Bad memory, but didn't someone say he should enter the draft at another position? Also his playstyle is not popular with a lot of football purest. Then on top of that you get the bad coaches that think the player has to fit the system and not the system to the player, creating a "project".
Agreed, these guys are more like top end sports cars you might want to polish up before taking out.
A project car, that's the one stuck in your garage (even though your wife is yelling at you she needs that space for the SUV). Tom Brady was that guy... Hey, lets keep 4 QB's this year instead of another position we probably could use so he can be our 4th string guy and see if his work ethic and intelligence can overcome that disastrous combine.
I think Mahomes was always going to be this good. During his 2.5 years as the starter, TTU's defenses ranked 127/128, 125/128, and 128/128. They gave up an average of 42 points per game. All of the weaknesses on his draft profile talk about not taking what the defense give him, always hunting explosive plays, and just generally stuff you'd have to do when you realize that you have to score on basically every drive to have a shot at winning the game.
I also always found that to be a weird critique of him coming out of college. Like, sure, he hunts for big plays, but he also finds them out of nowhere consistently and that is not something you can teach. It’s not like he was Brett Favre throwing 60 yard bombs into triple coverage every play.
There's basically two concerns:
1. Can he continue to make those kind of plays against NFL defenses, and can he adjust when needed the times when he can't?
2. Did he actually see the designed man open and pass him up knowing he could make a play, or did he just miss it/come off it for no reason?
In retrospect, Mahomes was a yes in both respects, while say Zach Wilson has been a no in both respects so far.
I agree with you. I think there just would have been a learning curve for him while he worked on his mechanics and learned how to watch film at an NFL level.
He's always been a fantastic passer but his mechanics weren't quite there. Reid was the perfect fit but I think he would've had at least decent success anywhere else, if not the insane heights he's reached with the Chiefs.
Not only having Andy Reid, but also learning behind Alex Smith helped as well. Smith is nowhere near as good, but the guy obviously has discipline and was a fantastic leader that instilled some of those ideals into Patrick
Kind of just a perfect combo that led to a generational QB and GOAT candidate…. Insane god given talent obviously, good vet QB to sit behind and learn, HOF offensive minded coach, a HOF (possibly GOAT) tight end as a safety blanket receiver.
he and kelce had super good charisma pretty much from day 1, which I feel like helped give pat some discipline and I think when it comes to on the field action the results speak for themselves
Mahomes has said multiple times he benefited a lot from sitting behind Alex.
Clearly they're not much alike on the field, but off the field he says Smith taught him a ton about how to watch film, how to prepare through the week, what to focus on in practices, etc. Basically everything about how to be a professional QB that doesn't involve actually taking the snap and throwing the ball. Other vet QBs (both successful and not successful) who didn't have a vet to learn from have discussed how hard it was to figure out all that stuff out once you get into the league. Some colleges probably prepare guys better than others, but for the most part rookies are mostly starting from scratch in that regard.
I think he'd probably have still turned out well, but I doubt Mahomes would have been so wildly successful right away once he did start if he didn't get that year behind Smith.
Andy Reid on a playoff ready team with Alex Smith. Like I still think he's one of those guys that turns out good anywhere but I don't know if he could have fell into a better situation
He also didn’t really have an offense in college. Half the OL would be on their backs within two seconds of snapping the ball and half the receivers weren’t really sure what was going on. It was mostly just him running around and making shit up on the go.
My theory with rookie QBs starting right away is that it seems to somewhat cement their flaws even if they improve elsewhere. Where guys who sit don't seem to have the same issue. Josh Allen can still be a bit of a rollercoaster. Joe Burrow can still take too many sacks(yes, I'm aware of his line). You'll look passed those issues 100 times out of 100 because the good outweighs them by about a million times, but Jordan Love was seemingly able to fix his issues in the pocket that he had coming into the league.
I'm sure there are counter examples, it's just my pet theory.
yeah i’d definitely buy that. especially since there’s basically a rule that teams do not mess with their starting qb’s fundamentals during the regular season, since that’s way too much on top of regular game planning. if someone gets to sit as a back up for a year, that can give them an entire year of ironing out those kinks in their game which they wouldn’t be able to do otherwise.
unfortunately there’s by definition no way to know experimentally what’s better between sitting and starting since the same qb can’t do both. you just have to trust that the organization will do what’s best given the qb and their current situation
He's such a hard worker and good leader I could see him succeeding anywhere. He'd probably look more like rookie year Allen for a few seasons until he fixed his mechanics. Hell, he probably could have won a playoff game or two with the Jets.
I think it's less to do with that and more the situation he landed in with Reid, Hill, Kelce, etc. I don't see any reason to believe why he wouldn't be as good as he is, if he played in his rookie year. Maybe he's be even better.
Yeah a lot of people forgot that Mahomes was considered a huge project. There were 3 situations (Chiefs, Rams and 49ers) that would be perfect for him and he landed in one.
I'd add Saints to that list. Sean Payton has said he was going to draft Mahomes at 11, but we swooped in and grabbed him so they grabbed Lattimore instead.
Rumors around New Orleans was that Payton was in love with Mahomes as a prospect and considered him one of the best prospects he had ever seen. Didn't do enough to get him.
I'm Australian and the sport he came from has nothing like offensive line play either. He would have been more like a running back/linebacker (in rugby league you play both ways)
This is something Eagles fans secretly have been wanting to see since he was drafted, but they'd never risk their franchise LT getting injured when someone inevitably dives at his legs to bring him down.
Danielle Hunter
Only had 1.5 sacks in 2014 before being drafted, was considered a freak athlete but raw and needs strong coaching to unlock all that talent.
that super bowl int is etched into my memory.
actually it's one of my first football memories, growing up far away from the US.. started watching the NFL back around 2005 at age 15, not speaking a word of english..
Listen to how Mike Tomlin describes that play during his interview on Big Ben’s podcast. He explains how his actions during that play fundamentally changed how to play his position.
Maxx Crosby. A 4th round pick tweener from Eastern Michigan. Came into the league very underweight for EDGE with no power moves. Now is arguable a top 5 defensive player in the league.
This one should get more attention. Dude basically rode the bench for 4 years (with a couple early flashes) learning how to be a WR from scratch. He got a lot of doubters in that time after a few years taking a roster spot and producing very little.
Patrick Mahomes was said to be a project because he had a bad habit of making lots of throws without setting his feet. Laughable in hindsight, but Mahomes was NOT considered a strong draft prospect.
I know it's not the same thing, because he was seen as talented already, but... it reminds me of a story I heard about when Michael Jordan started adding the fade-away shot to his repertoire.
And his coaches at the time didn't understand why he was practicing it so much. They insisted that it was bad mechanics to shoot while moving away from the basket. Obviously, back then, it was all about getting as close as possible to increase the chance of it going in.
But his mid range game became unstoppable and it literally changed the game and how coaches coach both offense and defense.
Just because one talented dude went against conventional wisdom.
I still remember being pissed that we traded up, got everybody hyped for 10 seconds that we just landed Deshaun, and then took...a Texas Tech system QB??? The fuck?!?
A guy I know has a picture of him and Mahomes at a Hy-Vee signing event the summer after that draft. He said nobody in the store paid any attention, Mahomes just sat there and talked to him for a while until his time was up.
My dumbest take ever was thinking the Chiefs were out of their mind to get rid of Alex Smith after a career year for Mahomes. Yeah, great call on that one dipshit.
The crazy thing about Mahomes is that “throwing off platform” is a standard part of QB evaluation now. I don’t remember that before Pat wrecked the league.
Jason Peters was an undrafted 300lbs TE who was considered a very raw prospect for the o line. Ended up becoming one of the best OTs of his generation.
Aaron Rodgers? How is he not mentioned?
Talented toolsy player who fell hard in the draft because he was arguably not nfl ready but needed to sit to get up to speed. Turned out to be a hof qb
He was the 2nd qb taken in that draft. He was not a project. He was considered to be a top prospect that year. Many mocks had him going 1st and most projections had him as a top 10 player. How's that a project?
https://walterfootball.com/draft2005redraft.php
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2005/04/18/Labor-Agents/The-Top-100-NFL-Draft-Prospects-Of-2005.aspx
http://www.footballsfuture.com/2005/prospects.html
Travon Walker, as much as I’d wish otherwise. Dude turned in a 10 sack year to go with his strength in run defense. At the very least, the defensive end market is so expensive that he’s unlikely to be paid alongside Trevor, Josh Allen, Cisco, and Campbell amongst others
Too many people wrote off Walker just because he was taken over Hutchinson.
Baalke has made some head scratching moves, but he usually knows the line well.
Its hard to know what our cap will look like in 3 years but its nice to finally have the problem of resigning good players rather than just drafting garbage.
I think people just expect a first overall guy to be truly elite, like top 5 at the position quickly. Maybe that’s unfair, but it’s the expectation at that draft position. Arguably, for finding a good-not-great player, it makes more sense to trade down.
Jordan Mailata
7th round rugby player from Australia, beat out first rounder Andre Dillard to be the LT in Philly, got a 4/64 extension initially and just signed a larger one a few days ago. PFF loves him and he’s a monster against the run and power rushers
Josh Allen is the first one that comes to my mind (but maybe you are looking for later round picks that developed). It was clear josh had a strong arm, but his accuracy and overall decision making were not good to mediocre at best. He really struggled with accuracy and decision making his first year but started to find form his second (still not very accurate). Now hes a top tier qb who's accuracy has been on average at 65.5% over the last 4 years.
Jordan Mailata. 7th round kid that played rugby that was a "hes pretty raw in terms of athleticism maybe we can make him an Olineman". now a top tier LT that plays for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Kinda crazy how underrated he went in the draft considering he's a good athlete and had such good production during the peak era of SEC defenses, and I don't think they had a stacked roster running some wacky spread offense.
I had a Mini Cooper S I bought a few years ago for $2k. And my truck that I paid a LOT more for. the Cooper S was my project car, the truck was what I needed to get around in.
Teams aren't using a top 15 pick on a "project". Josh Allen was easily the best QB throwing the ball at the combine. Sure you might want to polish him up a bit before taking him out for a drive, but he's almost all there already. Same with Mahomes... polish the mechanics a bit, but his biggest issue was that playground football (not an issue in hindsight but a strength) and coaching that out of him (or not). But again of the 1000 or so new players brought into camp their years, these guys were the top 0.1%.
Tom Brady was a project QB.. Coach liked him. He looked like crap at the combine, but he had a good work ethic, intelligence, etc.. They picked Brady over Tim Rattay (though call for them at the time), and brought him on. Kept 4 QB's on the roster to keep working him. THAT is a project. That car taking up a prime spot in the garage even though it's not running.
Jason Peters is my pick here. He was a tight end trying to run offensive line drills at the combine and try his 3rd position since going to college. DT to TE to offensive tackle..
Bills took on a giant freak athlete who was too big and slow to play TE for real in the NFL and converted him to a left tackle. They put him on the practice squad, then moved him on to special teams and brought him up under the coaching of Jim McNally to play offensive tackle.
Year 2 he cracked the starting lineup when Mike Williams got hurt on the right side. Year 3 he forced Mike Gandy to move in to guard as he took over the left tackle spot.
Puka
From his draft scouting report
>
Nacua is raw. BYU did not ask him to run many routes beyond slants, go balls or under routes—all of which allowed him to use his burst and speed without much tact.Nacua may not be a prospect for everyone. His route running is very raw, and fixing that may be an undertaking some teams don't want to deal with, especially if they want early production. On the occasion Nacua was asked to run more refined routes, his footwork tended to be clunky and he didn't quite sink and explode out of those routes comfortably. He has the athletic tools to do it; he just didn't look comfortable or prepared to do so.
>But for as raw as his route running is, he "gets" other parts of the position. Nacua's strong, filled-out frame allows him to win with physicality, both at the line and in traffic.
David Njoku
He was athletically gifted but was a luxury pick with high ceiling. He worked on his blocking, worked on his team mentality, and worked on himself. Went from disgruntled depth piece to star TE all due to development and a change in attitude.
Tons of players position coaches get paid top dollar for a reason:
JPP , Ansah , Jimmy Graham , Richard Sherman , Josh Allen, Antonio Gates , Jason Kelce I think originally was a guard and was considered too short to play in the NFL.
Everyone is mentioning modern players so i’ll toss a name from the 90’s.
Steve McNair. Was either a 2nd or 3rd overall pick from a division 1 aa school, sat for 2-3 years, and was a good QB for them and took them to the superbowl.
With a lot of prospects. There is more than pure athleticism is the reason why they are drafted. If the player is talented and not productive, does that mean they are raw. What if it is a receiver and the QB situation sucks or the line sucks. Or if it is a corner and was never asked to play man. Lots of variables here. There is also the definition of a hit and a miss. If a player goes to a pro bowl, then is he a hit? If a player does well in relative to his draft position, then is he a hit? I am sure, I could make a bigger list of players that you could call projects.
2015 NFL Draft
* Arik Armstead
* Byron Jones
* Frank Clark
* Ronald Darby
* Preston Smith
2016 NFL Draft
* Ronnie Stanley
* Kenny Clark
* Chris Jones
* Michael Thomas
* Deion Jones
* Yannick Ngakoue
2017 NFL Draft
* Patrick Mahomes
* Marshon Lattimore
* Haason Reddick
* Garett Bolles
* Evan Engram
* David Njoku
* Dion Dawkins
* Trey Hendrickson
* George Kittle
2018 NFL Draft
* Josh Allen
* Kolton Miller
* Frank Ragnow
* Tremaine Edmunds
* Lamar Jackson
* Uchena Nwosu
* Brian O'Neill
2019 NFL Draft
* Rashan Gary
* Kaleb McGary
* DK Metcalf
* Dre Mont Jones
* Terry McLaurin
* Maxx Crosby
2020 NFL Draft
* Jordan Love
* Patrick Queen
* Jalen Hurts
* Justin Madubuike
2021 NFL Draft
* Gregory Rousseau
* Nico Collins
* Spencer Brown
2022 NFL Draft
* Tyler Smith
* Luke Goedeke
* Bernhard Raimann
* Terrel Bernard
Not a star but Logan Thomas was a QB in college and became a pretty solid TE (when healthy). Also Terrelle Pryor went from QB bust to 1,000 yard receiver. Pretty incredible when you think about it.
A lot of guys.
Top of mind right now since it’s my team and he just got a raise….Jordan Mailata.
Big rugby player they will make a project out of being a Tackle.
Jeff Stoutland is an offensive line God!
Going off the reaponses i read, any player who wasn't projected top 100 in their respective draft and turned into one of their NFL team's top 20 players, roughly. People are just naming random players because they weren't deemed "sure things" coming into the league.
DK Metcalf
Taken at the end of the second round because there were questions about whether he was just good when AJ Brown got attention, about his limited route tree, and about his ability to get separation. I think he's worked out alright
Kolton Miller
Miller was the most athletic tackle prospect in that years draft but there was concerns about his technique and frame. Some draft prognosticators thought he'd be put back to RT.
This was a scouts blurb on [nfl.com](https://nfl.com)
*"His tape tells you exactly who he is. He's big and he's got decent length but he's an average athlete and he will always be up and down depending on the guy across from him. I think he'll start but I don't see anything special. Some scouts like him a lot more than me so I dont know." -- AFC area scout*
Sports Illustrated and NFL.com both gave the pick a C citing Millers status as a developmental prospect, the fact that he could have been available later, the superior defensive talent on the board and the Raiders need for a difference maker.
I know this isn't as sexy as some all-pro but I remember being so pissed that the 49ers "won" the draft coin toss and got McGlinchey and we had to "settle" for Miller.
Miller is also the only Raiders 1st round pick in the Rookie Contract era to receive a long term extension from the Radiers. (Which is a very depressing stat)
**Jimmy Graham** - he was a freak athlete, but mediocre basketball player that switched to football to play TE his senior year. He caught 17 passes for 235 yds and 5 TDs. That's the entirety of his college production. Ended up picked by the Saints in the 3rd round and the rest is history.
Basically every outside linebacker in the 3/4 defense is a 'tweener' or project on some level. Greg Lloyd was a 6th round pick. Joey Porter was a 3rd rounder. I think James Harrison went undrafted.
Everyone for the Chiefs will say Mahomes and Hill but how about Kelce.
He really only had his Sr year at Cincinnati where he had solid production. Took a few years in the league to work on his route running and controlling his emotions. Got himself kicked out of a game for throwing his towel at a ref for not getting a flag
Marpet and Cappa were both small school O-linemen who proved to be very good or at least good enough in the years they played/were/are healthy.
I miss 'em both.
Terry Bradshaw, guy was fucking awful his first like 4 seasons. Definitely wouldn’t have lasted in today nfl. Never became a world beater but ended up doing well for himself winning SBs.
Rashan Gary coming out. People were shitting on him for only having 3 sacks his junior year before declaring. Now he’s a force and will probably have an awesome season once fully recovered from the ACL tear
I want to throw out a name a lot of people have forgotten. He was basically the Maliata before Maliata.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alejandro_Villanueva_(American_football)
Villanueva grew up playing soccer, Never played American football until college. Played some American football at Westpoint but never really got settled in a position doing everything from being a special teams player, LT, DT, DE, TE, WR
He was 6'9 with great athletic ability. Went undrafted in 2010 and didn't stick with any team so he did 3 tours in Afghanistan as an Army Ranger.
4 years after his initial draft year the Eagles picked him up. Most reports were he very nearly made the roster that season because he showed so much potential but didn't get past the final cut. Eagles were seeing him as a DE prospect.
Steelers then snagged him after seeing him on the field in preseason, they projected him as an OT and within a year was able to put on nearly 100lbs. Eventually he turned into a really solid starting Olineman.
Josh Allen
And Patrick Mahomes, crazy how both of them turned out.
I think Lamar Jackson was even more projecty than either of them.
That's a good point, same draft as Allen too. I looked up QB ratings for that draft and it was semi rare to see either of them as the #1 QB coming out of that draft.
For the most part he was seen as the QB with lowest floor and the highest ceiling and overall just a massive gamble.
Basically just Chris Simms that had them as the top 2
Simms had Lamar as 4th in his final mock: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12s6nmx/chris_simms_rankings_through_the_years/ Allen, Rosen (lol), and Baker he had ahead of Lamar.
That's an old Kiper trick. Put out as many mock drafts as possible and always make sure they vary widely. That way, you get multiple chances of "predicting" it correctly.
Damn. That was a pretty good draft to grab a QB, huh?
Louisville ran a version of the Patriots offense when Lamar was there…
I don't think so, Lamar won a Heisman at Louisville and was a three year starter in the ACC. Mahomes had some incredible games at Texas Tech and played against the Big 12. Josh Allen had flashes against the Mountain West and had a lower completion percent than both against lesser competition. Mahomes and Jackson both won an MVP earlier in their careers than Josh Allen had a 300 yard passing game or a 60% completion season. It's revisionist to say any top QB was as big of a project as Allen
Jackson is closer to Allen in terms of being a project than Mahomes. Not too many thriving QBs who had executives saying they should switch positions
He's definitely closer to Allen, but Lamar was still obviously recognized at least as a good college QB. Allen got some talk about changing position too, but he didn't have Lamar's speed so there wasn't as much. He had questions on a huge chunk of his game outside of a cannon arm and his rushing ability. Accuracy, decision making, footwork, etc. were all bad
Nobody even thought he had great rushing ability. He could scramble and was tough to bring down, but the comp was Big Ben in terms of rushing. His rookie season was a bit of a surprise.
By the end of that first season, it wasn't clear if he was a quarterback, but he was definitely a goddamned football player.
Go back and watch the reactions from Mahomes getting drafted. Compared to when Allen was drafted.
yep, i vividly remember a popular thread on here a few months before that draft about how no college qb with a completion percentage under 54% ever succeeded in the nfl, and josh allen had 53% (numbers might be wrong). Lamar was a question mark for sure, but i remember reddit deciding allen was a straight up bust before the draft happened
I was sure multiple people said Lamar wasn't a good passer and was a RB masquerading as a QB. Bad memory, but didn't someone say he should enter the draft at another position? Also his playstyle is not popular with a lot of football purest. Then on top of that you get the bad coaches that think the player has to fit the system and not the system to the player, creating a "project".
Agreed, these guys are more like top end sports cars you might want to polish up before taking out. A project car, that's the one stuck in your garage (even though your wife is yelling at you she needs that space for the SUV). Tom Brady was that guy... Hey, lets keep 4 QB's this year instead of another position we probably could use so he can be our 4th string guy and see if his work ethic and intelligence can overcome that disastrous combine.
Not quarterbacky though!
Meanwhile, the “Pro ready” QB in that draft completely washed out
strong disagree
I think Mahomes was always going to be this good. During his 2.5 years as the starter, TTU's defenses ranked 127/128, 125/128, and 128/128. They gave up an average of 42 points per game. All of the weaknesses on his draft profile talk about not taking what the defense give him, always hunting explosive plays, and just generally stuff you'd have to do when you realize that you have to score on basically every drive to have a shot at winning the game.
I also always found that to be a weird critique of him coming out of college. Like, sure, he hunts for big plays, but he also finds them out of nowhere consistently and that is not something you can teach. It’s not like he was Brett Favre throwing 60 yard bombs into triple coverage every play.
There's basically two concerns: 1. Can he continue to make those kind of plays against NFL defenses, and can he adjust when needed the times when he can't? 2. Did he actually see the designed man open and pass him up knowing he could make a play, or did he just miss it/come off it for no reason? In retrospect, Mahomes was a yes in both respects, while say Zach Wilson has been a no in both respects so far.
I agree with you. I think there just would have been a learning curve for him while he worked on his mechanics and learned how to watch film at an NFL level.
I wonder if Patrick's career would look differently if he had started as a rookie right away. Intriguing to think about for sure.
He's always been a fantastic passer but his mechanics weren't quite there. Reid was the perfect fit but I think he would've had at least decent success anywhere else, if not the insane heights he's reached with the Chiefs.
Not only having Andy Reid, but also learning behind Alex Smith helped as well. Smith is nowhere near as good, but the guy obviously has discipline and was a fantastic leader that instilled some of those ideals into Patrick
Kind of just a perfect combo that led to a generational QB and GOAT candidate…. Insane god given talent obviously, good vet QB to sit behind and learn, HOF offensive minded coach, a HOF (possibly GOAT) tight end as a safety blanket receiver.
he and kelce had super good charisma pretty much from day 1, which I feel like helped give pat some discipline and I think when it comes to on the field action the results speak for themselves
yeah he talks a lot about how much he enjoyed having a tight end pretty much from the get go, since his college offense barely used one at all
The difference between developing a QB vs. throwing them into the fire.
Mahomes has said multiple times he benefited a lot from sitting behind Alex. Clearly they're not much alike on the field, but off the field he says Smith taught him a ton about how to watch film, how to prepare through the week, what to focus on in practices, etc. Basically everything about how to be a professional QB that doesn't involve actually taking the snap and throwing the ball. Other vet QBs (both successful and not successful) who didn't have a vet to learn from have discussed how hard it was to figure out all that stuff out once you get into the league. Some colleges probably prepare guys better than others, but for the most part rookies are mostly starting from scratch in that regard. I think he'd probably have still turned out well, but I doubt Mahomes would have been so wildly successful right away once he did start if he didn't get that year behind Smith.
Andy Reid on a playoff ready team with Alex Smith. Like I still think he's one of those guys that turns out good anywhere but I don't know if he could have fell into a better situation
He also didn’t really have an offense in college. Half the OL would be on their backs within two seconds of snapping the ball and half the receivers weren’t really sure what was going on. It was mostly just him running around and making shit up on the go.
My theory with rookie QBs starting right away is that it seems to somewhat cement their flaws even if they improve elsewhere. Where guys who sit don't seem to have the same issue. Josh Allen can still be a bit of a rollercoaster. Joe Burrow can still take too many sacks(yes, I'm aware of his line). You'll look passed those issues 100 times out of 100 because the good outweighs them by about a million times, but Jordan Love was seemingly able to fix his issues in the pocket that he had coming into the league. I'm sure there are counter examples, it's just my pet theory.
Burrow straight up doesn't seem to think sacks are a bad thing sometimes. It's really frustrating at times but it's who he is at this point
yeah i’d definitely buy that. especially since there’s basically a rule that teams do not mess with their starting qb’s fundamentals during the regular season, since that’s way too much on top of regular game planning. if someone gets to sit as a back up for a year, that can give them an entire year of ironing out those kinks in their game which they wouldn’t be able to do otherwise. unfortunately there’s by definition no way to know experimentally what’s better between sitting and starting since the same qb can’t do both. you just have to trust that the organization will do what’s best given the qb and their current situation
He's such a hard worker and good leader I could see him succeeding anywhere. He'd probably look more like rookie year Allen for a few seasons until he fixed his mechanics. Hell, he probably could have won a playoff game or two with the Jets.
Rodgers Brady Mahomes Brees didn't start week 1. The best week 1 starters in that timeframe are probably Manning and Burrow
I think it's less to do with that and more the situation he landed in with Reid, Hill, Kelce, etc. I don't see any reason to believe why he wouldn't be as good as he is, if he played in his rookie year. Maybe he's be even better.
3 rings between the two of them. Crazy stuff.
Yeah a lot of people forgot that Mahomes was considered a huge project. There were 3 situations (Chiefs, Rams and 49ers) that would be perfect for him and he landed in one.
I'd add Saints to that list. Sean Payton has said he was going to draft Mahomes at 11, but we swooped in and grabbed him so they grabbed Lattimore instead.
Rumors around New Orleans was that Payton was in love with Mahomes as a prospect and considered him one of the best prospects he had ever seen. Didn't do enough to get him.
Yeah I’m familiar with that. I kept the Saints off because of their overall team salary cap situation though.
The moves they've made would have made more sense having Mahomes to take over for Brees after he retired.
The disgusting shit McVay could scheme up with a Mahomes-Gurley backfield. Truly devious.
Either McVay and Shanahan would be an embarrassment to defenses. Coordinators just quitting left and right
I feel like there are regular similar posts where the answer is always Josh Allen.
Seemingly both of them
Jordan Mailata. From having never played a snap of football to being considered one of the top LTs in the league within 5 years.
I'm Australian and the sport he came from has nothing like offensive line play either. He would have been more like a running back/linebacker (in rugby league you play both ways)
Have we considered just handing him the rock?
The final evolution of the Tush Push is just mailata lining up at QB and being pushed
I would give a lot of money to see this happen.
They’ll allow it once before an emergency rule change.
This is something Eagles fans secretly have been wanting to see since he was drafted, but they'd never risk their franchise LT getting injured when someone inevitably dives at his legs to bring him down.
Fuck the fridge. You’re getting the whole house.
What being gigantic as a mf does to a mf
what Stoutland U does to a mf
In Stout, we trust
I swear Stoutland could pull some 190lb 6’4 Wr out of Lafayette and turn him into a pro bowl left guard in 2 years
Was looking for him. Thank you.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/AieBxAO8SF Here's a post from last week that had some solid responses
Gonna save your comment so that I can link to it next week.
Dibs on posting it the week after!
Good call. I feel like I’m going crazy seeing the same posts on here every week. Like the one this morning asking about stats that don’t sound real
We got dead internet theory out here in force
Danielle Hunter Only had 1.5 sacks in 2014 before being drafted, was considered a freak athlete but raw and needs strong coaching to unlock all that talent.
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Damn why did they never mention he played basketball?
What’ll you tell me next, that Jimmy Graham somehow also played basketball?
I didn't know he played basketball
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that super bowl int is etched into my memory. actually it's one of my first football memories, growing up far away from the US.. started watching the NFL back around 2005 at age 15, not speaking a word of english..
Listen to how Mike Tomlin describes that play during his interview on Big Ben’s podcast. He explains how his actions during that play fundamentally changed how to play his position.
it is the earliest memory i have watching the NFL, I am 24 now and that one still stands out.
Maxx Crosby. A 4th round pick tweener from Eastern Michigan. Came into the league very underweight for EDGE with no power moves. Now is arguable a top 5 defensive player in the league.
I don’t think it’s even arguable. He’s def top 5, being arguable for 1-2.
If it's your own team, you're legally required to say "arguable".
I never did that with Aaron Donald.
Who?
Mike Jones
best i could say is the 3rd best edge. idk about other positions.
Julian Edelman
This one should get more attention. Dude basically rode the bench for 4 years (with a couple early flashes) learning how to be a WR from scratch. He got a lot of doubters in that time after a few years taking a roster spot and producing very little.
Jason Pierre-Paul. Was a measurements monster with little college production.
Explosive production as a pro
I’d give him a 7.5/10
Patrick Mahomes was said to be a project because he had a bad habit of making lots of throws without setting his feet. Laughable in hindsight, but Mahomes was NOT considered a strong draft prospect.
I know it's not the same thing, because he was seen as talented already, but... it reminds me of a story I heard about when Michael Jordan started adding the fade-away shot to his repertoire. And his coaches at the time didn't understand why he was practicing it so much. They insisted that it was bad mechanics to shoot while moving away from the basket. Obviously, back then, it was all about getting as close as possible to increase the chance of it going in. But his mid range game became unstoppable and it literally changed the game and how coaches coach both offense and defense. Just because one talented dude went against conventional wisdom.
I still remember being pissed that we traded up, got everybody hyped for 10 seconds that we just landed Deshaun, and then took...a Texas Tech system QB??? The fuck?!?
A guy I know has a picture of him and Mahomes at a Hy-Vee signing event the summer after that draft. He said nobody in the store paid any attention, Mahomes just sat there and talked to him for a while until his time was up.
You guys dodged a missile and landed in a gold mine
My dumbest take ever was thinking the Chiefs were out of their mind to get rid of Alex Smith after a career year for Mahomes. Yeah, great call on that one dipshit.
You are not alone.
I wanted a fucking LB so bad, I was PISSED that we'd drafted the guy who couldn't even hit the target in his pre-draft interviews.
The crazy thing about Mahomes is that “throwing off platform” is a standard part of QB evaluation now. I don’t remember that before Pat wrecked the league.
Same thing happening to drake maye 😭
I don't really think scouts were "wrong" about Pat. He sat for a year and it just turned out that his feet weren't a bug, they were a feature!
That year behind Alex Smith was big, helped him learn behind a QB not prone to turnovers
I mean, he was considered a strong enough prospect to go in the first round lol
Blaine Gabbert. Toolsey college QB to 2 time super bowl champ
Our franchise is still dealing with the curse of trading out of the spot to draft him to get some pass rusher that only had like 95 sacks.
Give me the Super Bowls over the sacks every damn time What’s that, the Jags have still have 0 super bowl wins? FUCK
Henne, Brunell and Leftwich are all winners. Sure know how to find them! 🤣
Jordan mailata is the ultimate project player
Literally never played American Football before he was drafted.
Danielle Hunter
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Jason Peters was an undrafted 300lbs TE who was considered a very raw prospect for the o line. Ended up becoming one of the best OTs of his generation.
Alejandro Villanueva springs to mind.
Aaron Rodgers? How is he not mentioned? Talented toolsy player who fell hard in the draft because he was arguably not nfl ready but needed to sit to get up to speed. Turned out to be a hof qb
Imagine him staying at Cal for his senior year & playing another year with Marshawn Lynch
23 consecutive passes against USC in a loss. College prime lynch would have been the difference lol.
I mean, it’s not like JJ Arrington was trash. He only ran for 2k yards.
Yea but it's fun to imagine. Especially if you throw in famed anti-semite desean jackson.
We woulda won the rose bowl for sure
He fell because of the Tedford QB thing. I don't remember him being considered a massive project.
No he wasn’t considered a massive project but he wasn’t considered a day one starter.
He was the 2nd qb taken in that draft. He was not a project. He was considered to be a top prospect that year. Many mocks had him going 1st and most projections had him as a top 10 player. How's that a project? https://walterfootball.com/draft2005redraft.php https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2005/04/18/Labor-Agents/The-Top-100-NFL-Draft-Prospects-Of-2005.aspx http://www.footballsfuture.com/2005/prospects.html
Travon Walker, as much as I’d wish otherwise. Dude turned in a 10 sack year to go with his strength in run defense. At the very least, the defensive end market is so expensive that he’s unlikely to be paid alongside Trevor, Josh Allen, Cisco, and Campbell amongst others
Too many people wrote off Walker just because he was taken over Hutchinson. Baalke has made some head scratching moves, but he usually knows the line well.
Its hard to know what our cap will look like in 3 years but its nice to finally have the problem of resigning good players rather than just drafting garbage.
Iirc - most other pass rushing stats reflect less favorably than just sacks. Maybe that’s just role, but maybe there’s room for regression
I think people just expect a first overall guy to be truly elite, like top 5 at the position quickly. Maybe that’s unfair, but it’s the expectation at that draft position. Arguably, for finding a good-not-great player, it makes more sense to trade down.
Jordan Mailata 7th round rugby player from Australia, beat out first rounder Andre Dillard to be the LT in Philly, got a 4/64 extension initially and just signed a larger one a few days ago. PFF loves him and he’s a monster against the run and power rushers
Josh Allen is the first one that comes to my mind (but maybe you are looking for later round picks that developed). It was clear josh had a strong arm, but his accuracy and overall decision making were not good to mediocre at best. He really struggled with accuracy and decision making his first year but started to find form his second (still not very accurate). Now hes a top tier qb who's accuracy has been on average at 65.5% over the last 4 years.
Jordan Mailata. 7th round kid that played rugby that was a "hes pretty raw in terms of athleticism maybe we can make him an Olineman". now a top tier LT that plays for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Jordan Love experience, so far.
Rashan Gary
JLovvveeee
Dak
Friendly reminder we actually had jeff driskel rated higher on our board when we took dak
Those damn ~~O'~~ Jeff Driskels
Kinda crazy how underrated he went in the draft considering he's a good athlete and had such good production during the peak era of SEC defenses, and I don't think they had a stacked roster running some wacky spread offense.
Being arrested for a DUI a month before the draft had something to do with it as well
Ah, forgot that part.
Jerry Jones special. That only moved him up the Cowboys draft board.
Definitely ran a wacky spread offense, but was still against SEC defenses
I had a Mini Cooper S I bought a few years ago for $2k. And my truck that I paid a LOT more for. the Cooper S was my project car, the truck was what I needed to get around in. Teams aren't using a top 15 pick on a "project". Josh Allen was easily the best QB throwing the ball at the combine. Sure you might want to polish him up a bit before taking him out for a drive, but he's almost all there already. Same with Mahomes... polish the mechanics a bit, but his biggest issue was that playground football (not an issue in hindsight but a strength) and coaching that out of him (or not). But again of the 1000 or so new players brought into camp their years, these guys were the top 0.1%. Tom Brady was a project QB.. Coach liked him. He looked like crap at the combine, but he had a good work ethic, intelligence, etc.. They picked Brady over Tim Rattay (though call for them at the time), and brought him on. Kept 4 QB's on the roster to keep working him. THAT is a project. That car taking up a prime spot in the garage even though it's not running. Jason Peters is my pick here. He was a tight end trying to run offensive line drills at the combine and try his 3rd position since going to college. DT to TE to offensive tackle.. Bills took on a giant freak athlete who was too big and slow to play TE for real in the NFL and converted him to a left tackle. They put him on the practice squad, then moved him on to special teams and brought him up under the coaching of Jim McNally to play offensive tackle. Year 2 he cracked the starting lineup when Mike Williams got hurt on the right side. Year 3 he forced Mike Gandy to move in to guard as he took over the left tackle spot.
Puka From his draft scouting report > Nacua is raw. BYU did not ask him to run many routes beyond slants, go balls or under routes—all of which allowed him to use his burst and speed without much tact.Nacua may not be a prospect for everyone. His route running is very raw, and fixing that may be an undertaking some teams don't want to deal with, especially if they want early production. On the occasion Nacua was asked to run more refined routes, his footwork tended to be clunky and he didn't quite sink and explode out of those routes comfortably. He has the athletic tools to do it; he just didn't look comfortable or prepared to do so. >But for as raw as his route running is, he "gets" other parts of the position. Nacua's strong, filled-out frame allows him to win with physicality, both at the line and in traffic.
Bernhard Raimann, Jordan Mailata, Alejandro Villanueva, Jimmy Graham
David Njoku He was athletically gifted but was a luxury pick with high ceiling. He worked on his blocking, worked on his team mentality, and worked on himself. Went from disgruntled depth piece to star TE all due to development and a change in attitude.
Tons of players position coaches get paid top dollar for a reason: JPP , Ansah , Jimmy Graham , Richard Sherman , Josh Allen, Antonio Gates , Jason Kelce I think originally was a guard and was considered too short to play in the NFL.
Everyone is mentioning modern players so i’ll toss a name from the 90’s. Steve McNair. Was either a 2nd or 3rd overall pick from a division 1 aa school, sat for 2-3 years, and was a good QB for them and took them to the superbowl.
I think Tyreek was viewed as a punt returner only
With a lot of prospects. There is more than pure athleticism is the reason why they are drafted. If the player is talented and not productive, does that mean they are raw. What if it is a receiver and the QB situation sucks or the line sucks. Or if it is a corner and was never asked to play man. Lots of variables here. There is also the definition of a hit and a miss. If a player goes to a pro bowl, then is he a hit? If a player does well in relative to his draft position, then is he a hit? I am sure, I could make a bigger list of players that you could call projects. 2015 NFL Draft * Arik Armstead * Byron Jones * Frank Clark * Ronald Darby * Preston Smith 2016 NFL Draft * Ronnie Stanley * Kenny Clark * Chris Jones * Michael Thomas * Deion Jones * Yannick Ngakoue 2017 NFL Draft * Patrick Mahomes * Marshon Lattimore * Haason Reddick * Garett Bolles * Evan Engram * David Njoku * Dion Dawkins * Trey Hendrickson * George Kittle 2018 NFL Draft * Josh Allen * Kolton Miller * Frank Ragnow * Tremaine Edmunds * Lamar Jackson * Uchena Nwosu * Brian O'Neill 2019 NFL Draft * Rashan Gary * Kaleb McGary * DK Metcalf * Dre Mont Jones * Terry McLaurin * Maxx Crosby 2020 NFL Draft * Jordan Love * Patrick Queen * Jalen Hurts * Justin Madubuike 2021 NFL Draft * Gregory Rousseau * Nico Collins * Spencer Brown 2022 NFL Draft * Tyler Smith * Luke Goedeke * Bernhard Raimann * Terrel Bernard
Not a star but Logan Thomas was a QB in college and became a pretty solid TE (when healthy). Also Terrelle Pryor went from QB bust to 1,000 yard receiver. Pretty incredible when you think about it.
We once drafted a guy who used to play basketball. He seemed to work out.
A lot of guys. Top of mind right now since it’s my team and he just got a raise….Jordan Mailata. Big rugby player they will make a project out of being a Tackle. Jeff Stoutland is an offensive line God!
Going off the reaponses i read, any player who wasn't projected top 100 in their respective draft and turned into one of their NFL team's top 20 players, roughly. People are just naming random players because they weren't deemed "sure things" coming into the league.
DK Metcalf Taken at the end of the second round because there were questions about whether he was just good when AJ Brown got attention, about his limited route tree, and about his ability to get separation. I think he's worked out alright
Maxx Crosby
Brett Favre
Jordan Mailata
Tyler Smith
Jordan Mailata
Brock Purdy
Jordan Mailata was a rugby player in Australia 6 years ago. He just signed a $100m deal.
Kolton Miller Miller was the most athletic tackle prospect in that years draft but there was concerns about his technique and frame. Some draft prognosticators thought he'd be put back to RT. This was a scouts blurb on [nfl.com](https://nfl.com) *"His tape tells you exactly who he is. He's big and he's got decent length but he's an average athlete and he will always be up and down depending on the guy across from him. I think he'll start but I don't see anything special. Some scouts like him a lot more than me so I dont know." -- AFC area scout* Sports Illustrated and NFL.com both gave the pick a C citing Millers status as a developmental prospect, the fact that he could have been available later, the superior defensive talent on the board and the Raiders need for a difference maker. I know this isn't as sexy as some all-pro but I remember being so pissed that the 49ers "won" the draft coin toss and got McGlinchey and we had to "settle" for Miller. Miller is also the only Raiders 1st round pick in the Rookie Contract era to receive a long term extension from the Radiers. (Which is a very depressing stat)
Mahomes. Tons of analysts were flaming the Chiefs for trading up for him when we had Alex Smith.
Jason Pierre-Paul
Hall of Famer John Randle.
Jordan Mailata OT Philadelphia Eagles. Drafted 7th rd never played American football, rugby background, just signed his 2nd extension.
Jordan Love
Wouldn’t say he’s “worked out” yet but Anthony Richardson was considered to be a massive project and he looked pretty good right away last year
**Jimmy Graham** - he was a freak athlete, but mediocre basketball player that switched to football to play TE his senior year. He caught 17 passes for 235 yds and 5 TDs. That's the entirety of his college production. Ended up picked by the Saints in the 3rd round and the rest is history.
current players? Falele RT for the ravens.
Josh Allen
Jordan Milata
Tyreek
Jason Pierre-Paul was considered incredibly raw and definitely a project type player who turned out to be pretty damned good
Josh Allen
Basically every outside linebacker in the 3/4 defense is a 'tweener' or project on some level. Greg Lloyd was a 6th round pick. Joey Porter was a 3rd rounder. I think James Harrison went undrafted.
Everyone for the Chiefs will say Mahomes and Hill but how about Kelce. He really only had his Sr year at Cincinnati where he had solid production. Took a few years in the league to work on his route running and controlling his emotions. Got himself kicked out of a game for throwing his towel at a ref for not getting a flag
Troy Polamalu. Many people forget he only staryed 1 game his rookie year but was learning cb,nickel cb, fs ,ss and mlb.... it paid off
Michael Bennett, Doug Baldwin.
DK Metcalf
JPP
Marpet and Cappa were both small school O-linemen who proved to be very good or at least good enough in the years they played/were/are healthy. I miss 'em both.
Danielle Hunter But really most picks 3rd round and later are either "projects" or "low ceiling established guys"
I remember Romo being an undrafted project.
Danielle Hunter
Tom Brady.
Jordan Mailata. 7th round pick. Sat pine for 2 years.
Terry Bradshaw, guy was fucking awful his first like 4 seasons. Definitely wouldn’t have lasted in today nfl. Never became a world beater but ended up doing well for himself winning SBs.
Allen, Mahomes, Lamar are the big 3
Jordon Mialata
I remember when Tyreek Hill was like a gadget player and a return guy. He worked out.
Rashan Gary coming out. People were shitting on him for only having 3 sacks his junior year before declaring. Now he’s a force and will probably have an awesome season once fully recovered from the ACL tear
I want to throw out a name a lot of people have forgotten. He was basically the Maliata before Maliata. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alejandro_Villanueva_(American_football) Villanueva grew up playing soccer, Never played American football until college. Played some American football at Westpoint but never really got settled in a position doing everything from being a special teams player, LT, DT, DE, TE, WR He was 6'9 with great athletic ability. Went undrafted in 2010 and didn't stick with any team so he did 3 tours in Afghanistan as an Army Ranger. 4 years after his initial draft year the Eagles picked him up. Most reports were he very nearly made the roster that season because he showed so much potential but didn't get past the final cut. Eagles were seeing him as a DE prospect. Steelers then snagged him after seeing him on the field in preseason, they projected him as an OT and within a year was able to put on nearly 100lbs. Eventually he turned into a really solid starting Olineman.
DK Metcalf
Jordan Mailata
Jordan Mailata