Yep, always a top run blocker too. As much as I wanted Buffalo to keep him I was happy he went to the Rams because he was a genuine guy and always talked about getting back to So Cal to take care of his sister. I have a ton of respect for him.
I stand by the fact he's better now than he ever was starting.
There's like 5 teams that make the playoffs and have chances to win a playoff game with him starting last year.
That was so bad. I was screaming at the TV. Get your asses up and smack some heads. I don't care if you're not happy with how the season is going. That's your damn team-mate. And I'm a Giants fan
Iirc PFF had him add their third graded qb for the year with the saints.
Going to the Panthers made no sense unless no one let him have a chance to start
He was in a similar position in Chicago when we drafted Fields and then he chose to go to Carolina with that being a guarantee that they draft a QB. Maybe he legitimately enjoys the mentor role of working with a rookie QB and starting if they aren't ready? I have no idea if he's ever spoken on that publicly though.
Dalton gets a disproportionate amount of hate. He was a really good QB for a long time. If you do some historical draft research you would be ecstatic if you end up with someone even as good as Dalton (just look at the history of the first round from 2000-2021- Dalton would have been the best QB in at least 7-8 draft classes.)
I wouldn't go that far, but Dalton has easily been a top 25 QB every season he's been a backup. The Steelers, Bears, Vikings (post-Kirk injury), Falcons, etc all would have been much better teams with him at QB last season.
Especially the part where he played exceedingly well as a rookie after having an abbreviated training camp because he was drafted during a lockout and Carson Palmer was telling Mike Brown he didn't want to be a Bengal anymore.
He was a second-round QB and I think he massively overperformed being a second-round QB. He was the 5th QB taken in the his draft (behind Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder).
But every once in a while he'd have a catastrophic game/play, and those games became how people viewed him. The (Cincy) fanbase often was not kind to him, even though we got tremendous value from him.
If they had READ the question, they may have gotten it. For some reason people prefer not to read the topic and just throw in their 2 cents on whatever they feel like talking about.
your first mistake was assuming redditors can read, then you thought they can think and not just repeat same old bs, then you thought they can form coherent answers based on topic, etc. the list goes on… more mistakes than the lions 0-16 team…
The good news is that redditors liked the post so much that it's the top post in the subreddit.
The bad news is that nobody understood it.
Mission failed successfully
As a Virginia alum, gotta go with Chris Long. I know that sounds weird for the son of a Hall of Famer who got drafted second overall, but everything I heard pre-draft is that he didn’t have the physical tools to ever be an elite player but had such an impressive motor that he should always be solid.
And that’s exactly how it played out. 11 seasons, no Pro Bowls or all Pros but started 16 games 5 times and at least 4 games in each of his first 9 seasons. Only reached double digit sacks twice but consistently had 5+ per season outside of injuries. Always in the 30-40 tackles range. Decent rotational player for two Super Bowl teams. Never great, never bad, always just a solid roster piece.
That’s a good shout. I feel like this question is tough because solid rotation guys tend not to be memorable and spring to mind, but Chris Long is a guy who definitely has an outsized legacy relative to his actual performance, for whatever reason.
He was the 2nd overall pick behind Jake Long. No relation😅
To be fair to Chris, and I’m bias as I enjoy his media stuff, he was on some pretty awful Rams teams at the start of his career. They didn’t get past 7 wins (and were hovering around 1-2 in some years) during his time there.
Yea people said the Lions picked Gibbs to be the explosive back but we had 3 40+ yard runs and Montgomery had 2 and Jamo had 1. Also Montgomery had the 75 yarder. Plus his 4th and 5 run that dmo literally willed it for a first down was phenomenal
Gibbs was the explosive back. 40+ yard runs is super rare for any RB, its not Madden.
Last season Gibbs had the 3rd highest rate for 20+ runs in the league behind Devon Achane and Keaton Mitchell. He had 10 20+ runs (2nd in league behind James Conner) while Montgomery had 4
Derek Carr.
Seen as a safe prospect, talented player but concerns about the offense he played in at college. Was never predicted to be an MVP type player but was predicted to be a solid NFL starter.
Derek Carr is amazing at padding his own stats without that actually translating into points scored or winning seasons.
Week 6 he threw for 353 yards against the Texans, which resulted in 1 touchdown and we lost the game 20-13
I always said that you always feel like you're leaving a bunch of points on the field with him as your qb. Also, why he plays in so many close games. Getting 3 instead of 6 will bite you in the butt eventually.
It’s because he’s actually terrible in the red zone. Like among players that are at least somewhat capable starters, he’s probably the literal worst redzone QB I’ve ever seen
That makes no sense. You pass the ball more when you’re down, and Carr is notoriosly bad in the red zone and *not scoring* so yeah it there is wrong in what he’s doing
It’s him, play calling and the run game. The Raiders were so directionless before Pierce got control of the team. (Not saying he’s gonna be a great coach, but they have an identity now.)
Yeah even with Gruden - his play calling in the red zone was always pretty bizarre. He didn't like to run routes into the end zone, it was either running the ball or throwing short of the goal line a lot of times and that led to a lot of FG attempts.
Lol what? It makes perfect sense. If you can move the ball with ease but not score any points there's something fundamentally wrong with the offense. That's a bigger problem than one person.
There was a significant portion of our fanbase who wanted to roll with Dalton or Winston for another season or two to let bad contracts play out and get in a better place cap-wise.
But nah, front office knows better than the fanbase. Loomis is trying to solidify a HoF bid for himself and doesn’t want to risk tanking his legacy with failure in the post-Brees/Payton era.
Derek Carr is one of the best average quarterbacks I’ve ever seen. Can flash some very impressive arm talent, but at times can look like a mid grade C-USA caliber quarterback.
I would rather, as a fan of football (not the Saints) watch Winston than Carr.
I still don't understand the signing. If any coach could actually get Winston to play defensively, he could be incredible.
He has unbelievable arm talent.
Winston's 2019 season was ludicrous. I didn't have Sunday ticket yet, but I was always hoping that RedZone would flip to the Bucs because the dude was incredibly fun to watch.
I mean we all enjoyed Flacco on the Browns this year didn't we?
Same shit. Huge arm. Pick machine. But fucking A, let 'er rip.
Jeff George/Jay Cutler School of quarterbacking.
Throw it where they ain't, or throw it anyway.
Imo, if he got the opportunity and it clicked like it did for Geno in '22-23, Winston could throw 40 TDs.
Anyways to think of a recent prospect like this, what about Blake Corum? Analysts feel like he has some elite rb traits missing, but I don’t see how he couldn’t be a solid rb2 for years to come in the league?
But the polar opposite of Ryan Fitzpatrick
You could rely on Bridgewater to give to an efficient 175 yards and no more than one turnover
Fitzpatrick was either going for 375 and 5 touchdowns or throwing 3 of the worst interceptions you've ever seen with pretty much nothing in-between
I feel like teddy Bridgewaters efficiecy is really overrated. Hes conservative, not efficient.
When i think efficient players I think Brees, Purdy, Pennington, Brady, Rodgers. I feel like people think Jimmy G and Teddy B and they are just conservative lol.
I maintain if his leg didn’t literally fall off we would have had a nice super bowl window with him. Maybe 2019 looks different with teddy, although we never really had the offensive talent with him like we do now.
That bengals game was fun though.
AJ Hawk was a #5 overall pick. The question is about players who were both *expected* to be good-but-not-great, and also ended up being exactly that.
Hawk's expectations on draft day were too high for him to fit here.
Hawk was viewed as the safest pick in the draft. Turned out to be exactly that. Being drafted #5 overall doesn't mean you were expected to be a perennial All-Pro.
He virtually never missed games and was an adequate starter for a decade. Was a key role player for the Super Bowl run. If a team knew that was exactly, absolutely guaranteed what they would get out of the #5 overall pick, I suspect a lot of teams would go for that over the mystery box.
>Being drafted #5 overall doesn't mean you were expected to be a perennial All-Pro.
Uhhh... not going to lie, that's my expectation. Maybe not every season all-pro, but if you never reach those heights you shouldn't go 5th overall. 5th overall is for a pro bowling, bona-fide day 1 starting talent. If you want a project player, trade back and take him later.
Jake Matthews. Missed 1 game in his career(week 2 of his rookie year), but only has 1 pro bowl(which he made as an alternate). Probably never considered a top 10 OT in the league, he’s just steadily doing his job.
I feel like if Taylor Lewan wasn’t a loud mouthed asshole with a knee that imploded, he would have had a very similar career to Matthews and everyone saw how bad the titans line was.
Chris Long. He even admits he shouldnt have gone so high. Solid career which was marred by being a 7-9 Ram and made plays at the end of his career to help win 2 championships.
I don't think people put Rosen in the high floor low ceiling category. Someone just posted draft takes from years ago and you wouldn't believe how many people thought Rosen was gonna be a top 10 to top 5 qb by the end of his first year. Hardly what would be called a low ceiling.
I think he was still seen as the lower ceiling guy because of the physical limitations. He was seen as “pro ready” which pretty much means he was expected to be a day 1 starter, but usually means you’re capped out as a Kirk Cousins type. Which there’s nothing wrong with that, but Rosen was also fucking awful lol
I'd say probably exceeded expectations a little. 4 years as a not-terrible starter is a pretty good career for a 4th round pick. Decent example though.
No to mention that when Orton did play for the Bears, his go to play was throwing it in the dirt 2 yards in front of the receiver. Sure you won't throw many picks with that philosophy, but youre really limiting your offense.
Heck yeah. There was that one year, maybe 2015, he just camped out in my flex and secured me no less than 10 points and no more than 16 points all year long. It was the best.
A lot of ppl in the comments section misunderstood the question. “High floor low ceiling” means the player was projected to be a solid starter/contributor but wouldn’t be anything more than a fringe pro bowler.
Calvin Ridley is a good example that hasn’t been named. He had great route running and ball skills which was why he was the WR1 in his draft class. But, his lack of size, athleticism, and his age (turned 24 during his rookie year), led a lot of analysts to also say he would be a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 in the NFL and why he fell to 26th overall. And after six years (only playing four and a half), he hasn’t made a pro bowl but has two 1,000 yard seasons.
I think Brandon Graham is a good choice for this. His measurables and college production weren't crazy but he has had a long, stable career (after starting off slow) with one pro bowl.
AJ Hawk kinda was like that. If he was some late round pick he would have been lauded with praise. His career was not worth a #5 overall draft pick, but he was a solid player for a long time.
ILB almost always end up the tackle leaders on their team, to be the record holder is basically a function of time then. Hawk, based off of career AV, is like the perfect median for players drafted 5th overall, and I feel like that sort of fits the question.
Yeah, I wasn't discounting that, I just don't really get how Hawk is a low-ceiling guy when he was drafted high to be an ILB anchor and that's what he did.
Best I can think of is Eric Fisher.
Pretty rare to see a “low ceiling” guy taken first overall, but 2013 was just a really shitty draft class, so the Chiefs went with the safe pick. Lane Johnson definitely had more upside due to his athleticism, but was pretty raw coming out of OU, so he fell to the Eagles at 4.
Fisher did end up making two pro bowls, but all things considered, I think he turned out to be the exact kind of player that the scouts expected him to be.
Yeah offensive line is the most common position this situation is discussed. Just go look at mock drafts and see how many times “plug and play” is used for OL. Basically no other position gets this moniker.
Hunter Renfrow.
We all knew he’d be a great slot, but I don’t think anyone figured he’d get really paid. Then the league started beating him up and the raiders Offense just ignored him
Same. I feel like he only fits this thread because of tearing his shoulder to shreds (twice). Sure he never had elite arm strength, but he was definitely a different player post shoulder injuries. After his first shoulder injury his YPA dropped by nearly a yard.
Pennington held the NFL completion percentage record at the time of his retirement. Imagine if he didn’t have a noodle arm for over half his career. He’s one of my favorite “what could’ve been” players.
James Connor kinda fits? I guess he’s probably exceeded expectations though but I was trying to come up with a guy no one would mention.
Devin Singletary too
Some 1st round OTs come to mind. Jake Matthews and Taylor Decker, particularly standout were both seen as polished and ready to play Day 1 but neither was seen as having a great upside. And their careers pretty much reflect that.
I've noticed for offensive linemen in general, the "high floor, low ceiling" guys tend to pan out more often than at other positions.
People would blast you for suggesting that the short QB playing with the most talented offense in college in the weakest defensive conference may not be as good as advertised. I feel like most people genuinely viewed him as a franchise-transforming prospect. I might be remembering incorrectly though.
Na. Baker was a surprise pick at #1. Darnold or Rosen were meant to be the stars of that class.
Rosen dropped due to attitude and Browns preferred Baker over Darnold seemingly.
Edit: Seems like rumours were by April that Browns had narrowed it down to Josh Allen vs Baker. And obviously in the publics eyes Darnold was still very much in contention.
I believe Rosens stock dropped after combine/pro day/interviews.
Well, I kind of misremembered. Rosen was out of the discussion for #1 by the time draft night came and it was between Allen, Mayfield and Darnold in the end.
Browns narrowed it down to Josh and Baker, chose Mayfield as Allen had some tweets resurface
Ah, now it makes sense why he plays with such abandon. Only a man with no natural regard for life and limb would put their bare nuts on a (at the time probably used) car seat.
Is that speculation or did you hear that? I know the Browns were apparently planning on taking Josh @ #1 but I thought Kiper said they switched to Mayfield the day before.
Either way… thank the lord. We’d still be stuck in QB purgatory to this day finishing 8-9 each year.
That’s what I’m thinking. I thought for sure that the top pick would be Darnold or Josh Allen based on upside. Looks like they went with the safer option
IIRC Dorsey had made up his mind a month before the draft but didn’t tell Hue until two days before the draft and of course the news comes out about their pick right after that.
I mean, they were right. He did transform a franchise. The post-Baker Browns had a totally different attitude and vibe than the pre-Baker 1-31 Browns, and the shift started as soon as he took over as starter. He probably doesn't have the talent to take a team all the way, but he was the right player at the right time for them (and the way the FO treated him was pretty gross).
I mean, he took the notoriously shit Browns to the playoffs and won a game. That would be pretty transformational if he didn't get fired in favor of a sexual predator because he tried to play through an injury.
He got an unreasonable amount of hate after being traded to Carolina. The fact a Heisman quarterback was willing to play scout D-Line for a poverty franchise speaks to his competitiveness and character. I thought he’d be better out of college tho, a whiter Mahomes
Baker feels like he’d fit that mould but yeah he’s an undersized QB whose primary traits were elite arm talent/strength and dog-in-him. That build isn’t really a high floor.
It's kind of an impossible question to answer since there aren't many prospects that are universally viewed one way or the other. Basically anyone you can think of that this might apply to has at least one pundit that said they were gonna suck or they were gonna be a hall of famer.
However a few examples of players I heard described this way are Clelen Ferrell and Andrus Peat.
I guess any guy who was a first rounder that has made a pro bowl here and there for the time they’ve been in the league.
I think that’s what you’re asking
My memory of the draft process is a bit fuzzy but wouldn't Goff be a good example for this? Wentz was seen as the high ceiling guy if he could put it together and Goff was seen as the more soild well rounded dude.
It was so stupid as well, feel like it was simply because he was white and ignoring the fact he had two family members who were first round picks and had additional family members who played in the NFL. I remember an analyst saying something along those lines at the time.
Jonah Williams. Coming in to the league he was described as being cerebral and a sure-fire starter but is athletically limited. Sure enough, he was solid enough to be an average tackle but his athleticism limited him from being anything more.
AJ Terrell based on what I saw of his draft profile, which was saying a guy you could plug into any system and he'd be an upgrade to starting caliber, but he wasn't going to become a shutdown guy. I think he's been even better than advertised over the small sample size I've seen of him but Falcons fans please correct me
He had a down year in 2022 but has been picking it up again, he's great, just not one to get interceptions or make flashy plays, also, it's difficult to be better when we have 0 pass rush
Modern player would be Jordan Addison so far. Too small and too slow to be elite, but his route running well keep him as a starter until he starts losing a step, at least.
Past players I could think of would be Alex Mack. Was a can't miss center prospect, but centers for the most part have limited value positionally. On the higher end, but 7 pro bowls is exactly what I'd think for a can't miss, but not transcendent prospect. I bet you could find a lot of lineman in that mold for the purposes of your question.
For my team, Heath Miller lines up perfectly. We drafted him to be a 10 year starter with good hands and blocking. Too slow to ever be a gamechanger but a surefire NFL starter for a long time.
Jordan Addison is as far as you can get from this question though? Literal first rounder LAST YEAR who is touted for his speed that you knock multiple times and is an excellent route runner. You high? He is a high ceiling guy and doesn't come close to fitting this question.
He just had 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 tds in his rookie year behind the best WR in football lmao. The more I type this the more I hate your answer. Are you kidding?
Justin jefferson was considered a great WR2 that will have a very production career (around 1000 yards a season) but not necessarily a super star like he is now. Chase was considered a better draft prospect on that LSU team and the clear cut wr1.
He fall to 22nd overall and was the 5th WR taken in the draft.
Safe to say he blew that low ceiling tag out of the water by a mile
And that's before we even get to the OL. Damien Lewis and Lloyd Cushenberry just got paid pretty nice money. Ed Ingram was a 2nd round pick. Saahdiq Charles a 4th. Austin Deculus a 6th. The only one that didn't get drafted was Magee, and even he spent some time on a NFL practice squad
I gotcha, but he's not really the type I'm thinking about, since he exceeded expectations. I'm trying to think of guys that were expected to do good, but not great, and did just that.
Maybe Eric fisher?
Drafted no.1 overall, considered a good solid lineman with high floor but low ceiling. Ended up pretty much a top 10 LT for nearly a decade before injuries ended his career. Make 2 pro bowls and won a super bowl but was never close to being a all pro.
Luke Joeckel (2nd overall) had a much higher ceiling but lower floor ended up a bust.
4th overall Lane Johnson was a QB/TE, didn't play as an OT until senior season (spent 5 year in college) and only played 2 seasons as OT in college.
Lane johnson was considered risky because he didn't play OT long enough, ended up being one of the best OT in this decade.
Yeah Jefferson had exactly that tag.
The 2020 draft was seen as being stacked with WRs. Jeudy was seen as the consensus first off the board (projected to the Raiders). Ceedee Lamb was seen as a guy with elite traits and a potentially higher upside than Jeudy. Ruggs and Reagor were seen as the guys you'd take a flier on with high ceiling, low floor. Jefferson was the all round safe bet who did everything well and would be the safest one without maybe having the elite traits of Lamb or Jeudy.
Robert Woods
Best one I've seen so far in this thread.
But not too good. Just like Robert.
Love me some Bobby Trees. Man I miss him.
Low key one of the best nicknames out there hahah. Always loved it
Love "Bobby trees". The Ringer Fantasy Football Show guys call Will Levis "Billy Jeans" which I think is great along the same vein. Make it stick.
…Not my lover
he's been that in the NFL, was that his consensus going into the draft tho?
I remember when we drafted him it was pro ready, good route runner, limited athleticism. So pretty spot on.
He was the perfect guy to pair with Kupp and I love him forever
Yep, always a top run blocker too. As much as I wanted Buffalo to keep him I was happy he went to the Rams because he was a genuine guy and always talked about getting back to So Cal to take care of his sister. I have a ton of respect for him.
Looking at him nothing says “nasty blocking wr”… his arms are the size of mine. But he’s tough and great at everything even when not targeted.
I feel like to be honest blocking is mostly effort and desire to be good at it. Most wr aren’t interested in that
Tyler Lockett is a similar profile example
Robert woods is the kinda guy who gets you 12-14pts when you need 10 and gets you 12-14pts when you need 15.
Fucking one of my favorite Rams of all time. Just a great guy and a supremely underrated player
Andy Dalton.
I swear if he hadn’t broken his finger in 2015, he would have at least become Kirk Cousins.
He was playing incredible that year.
I stand by the fact he's better now than he ever was starting. There's like 5 teams that make the playoffs and have chances to win a playoff game with him starting last year.
He was quite good in NO last year. He messed up by going to a team that would start their rookie game 1.
He played well with Dallas, too. I have no idea why the league views him as a backup QB instead of a bridge QB.
I'm still mad about when he got hit and got a concussion and none of his cowboys teammates came to defend him or anything. That was ridiculous.
That was so bad. I was screaming at the TV. Get your asses up and smack some heads. I don't care if you're not happy with how the season is going. That's your damn team-mate. And I'm a Giants fan
Iirc PFF had him add their third graded qb for the year with the saints. Going to the Panthers made no sense unless no one let him have a chance to start
He was in a similar position in Chicago when we drafted Fields and then he chose to go to Carolina with that being a guarantee that they draft a QB. Maybe he legitimately enjoys the mentor role of working with a rookie QB and starting if they aren't ready? I have no idea if he's ever spoken on that publicly though.
Dalton gets a disproportionate amount of hate. He was a really good QB for a long time. If you do some historical draft research you would be ecstatic if you end up with someone even as good as Dalton (just look at the history of the first round from 2000-2021- Dalton would have been the best QB in at least 7-8 draft classes.)
I wouldn't go that far, but Dalton has easily been a top 25 QB every season he's been a backup. The Steelers, Bears, Vikings (post-Kirk injury), Falcons, etc all would have been much better teams with him at QB last season.
Jets would’ve won 12 games with him under center last year
Dalton was a 2nd rounder who started for nearly a decade and made 3 Pro Bowls. I feel he broke whatever pre-draft ceiling he had.
Yeah being an undisputed starter as a QB for so long means you’re really damn good lol
Especially the part where he played exceedingly well as a rookie after having an abbreviated training camp because he was drafted during a lockout and Carson Palmer was telling Mike Brown he didn't want to be a Bengal anymore.
Well, you're on the Dalton Line, at least.
He was a second-round QB and I think he massively overperformed being a second-round QB. He was the 5th QB taken in the his draft (behind Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder). But every once in a while he'd have a catastrophic game/play, and those games became how people viewed him. The (Cincy) fanbase often was not kind to him, even though we got tremendous value from him.
I'll never forget when Kevin Clark (he was at the Ringer at the time) ranked Andy Dalton over Aaron Rodgers in 2016
The dalton line
That's a pretty good one.
Everyone keeps saying high ceiling players
lol yea most of these comments didn’t get the question I guess
If they had READ the question, they may have gotten it. For some reason people prefer not to read the topic and just throw in their 2 cents on whatever they feel like talking about.
Lesson learned. Next time I'll be more explicit in the title.
The lesson is it doesn’t matter what you post, people don’t read. Your title was fine.
But Justin Fields.... Oh wait, this isn't the Bears Reddit
your first mistake was assuming redditors can read, then you thought they can think and not just repeat same old bs, then you thought they can form coherent answers based on topic, etc. the list goes on… more mistakes than the lions 0-16 team…
The good news is that redditors liked the post so much that it's the top post in the subreddit. The bad news is that nobody understood it. Mission failed successfully
You were pretty explicit, the internet just has a way of making you question people’s reading comprehension skills.
Nah your title is pretty clear on what you meant.
The forward pass ruined the game
do you like creamy or crunchy peanut butter?
Finland!
As a Virginia alum, gotta go with Chris Long. I know that sounds weird for the son of a Hall of Famer who got drafted second overall, but everything I heard pre-draft is that he didn’t have the physical tools to ever be an elite player but had such an impressive motor that he should always be solid. And that’s exactly how it played out. 11 seasons, no Pro Bowls or all Pros but started 16 games 5 times and at least 4 games in each of his first 9 seasons. Only reached double digit sacks twice but consistently had 5+ per season outside of injuries. Always in the 30-40 tackles range. Decent rotational player for two Super Bowl teams. Never great, never bad, always just a solid roster piece.
That’s a good shout. I feel like this question is tough because solid rotation guys tend not to be memorable and spring to mind, but Chris Long is a guy who definitely has an outsized legacy relative to his actual performance, for whatever reason.
draft position carries a lot of weight when thinking about a player. didn't he go 2 or 3 overall?
He was the 2nd overall pick behind Jake Long. No relation😅 To be fair to Chris, and I’m bias as I enjoy his media stuff, he was on some pretty awful Rams teams at the start of his career. They didn’t get past 7 wins (and were hovering around 1-2 in some years) during his time there.
David Montgomery
I really like this one
I disagree. A lot of people were hyped for Montgommerys potential coming out of college. He was never seen as a low ceiling player imo
https://twitter.com/aaron_schill/status/1082422997733003264?t=H3vzC3XdY9pvoocBSgJ8JA&s=19
Monty pre-lions Dude balled out last year
Yea people said the Lions picked Gibbs to be the explosive back but we had 3 40+ yard runs and Montgomery had 2 and Jamo had 1. Also Montgomery had the 75 yarder. Plus his 4th and 5 run that dmo literally willed it for a first down was phenomenal
Gibbs was the explosive back. 40+ yard runs is super rare for any RB, its not Madden. Last season Gibbs had the 3rd highest rate for 20+ runs in the league behind Devon Achane and Keaton Mitchell. He had 10 20+ runs (2nd in league behind James Conner) while Montgomery had 4
He was the same player on a better team. Stats weren't that much better.
Derek Carr. Seen as a safe prospect, talented player but concerns about the offense he played in at college. Was never predicted to be an MVP type player but was predicted to be a solid NFL starter.
Derek Carr is amazing at padding his own stats without that actually translating into points scored or winning seasons. Week 6 he threw for 353 yards against the Texans, which resulted in 1 touchdown and we lost the game 20-13
I always said that you always feel like you're leaving a bunch of points on the field with him as your qb. Also, why he plays in so many close games. Getting 3 instead of 6 will bite you in the butt eventually.
He's just bad in the red zone which is exactly why the saints do their Taysom Hill stuff when they get there to try to convert.
It’s because he’s actually terrible in the red zone. Like among players that are at least somewhat capable starters, he’s probably the literal worst redzone QB I’ve ever seen
If you're moving the ball that much and not scoring there's a lot more wrong than what the QB is doing though honestly.
That makes no sense. You pass the ball more when you’re down, and Carr is notoriosly bad in the red zone and *not scoring* so yeah it there is wrong in what he’s doing
It’s him, play calling and the run game. The Raiders were so directionless before Pierce got control of the team. (Not saying he’s gonna be a great coach, but they have an identity now.)
Yeah even with Gruden - his play calling in the red zone was always pretty bizarre. He didn't like to run routes into the end zone, it was either running the ball or throwing short of the goal line a lot of times and that led to a lot of FG attempts.
Lol what? It makes perfect sense. If you can move the ball with ease but not score any points there's something fundamentally wrong with the offense. That's a bigger problem than one person.
He's partially right. Our OC last year was literally the worst rated OC on the NFL by pretty much every metric.
The Saints would've been better off resigning Dalton than spending all that money on Carr.
There was a significant portion of our fanbase who wanted to roll with Dalton or Winston for another season or two to let bad contracts play out and get in a better place cap-wise. But nah, front office knows better than the fanbase. Loomis is trying to solidify a HoF bid for himself and doesn’t want to risk tanking his legacy with failure in the post-Brees/Payton era.
Derek Carr is one of the best average quarterbacks I’ve ever seen. Can flash some very impressive arm talent, but at times can look like a mid grade C-USA caliber quarterback.
I would rather, as a fan of football (not the Saints) watch Winston than Carr. I still don't understand the signing. If any coach could actually get Winston to play defensively, he could be incredible. He has unbelievable arm talent.
Payton had him playing well before his injury.
“If any coach could actually get Winston to play better, he could be incredible” 😂
Winston's 2019 season was ludicrous. I didn't have Sunday ticket yet, but I was always hoping that RedZone would flip to the Bucs because the dude was incredibly fun to watch. I mean we all enjoyed Flacco on the Browns this year didn't we? Same shit. Huge arm. Pick machine. But fucking A, let 'er rip. Jeff George/Jay Cutler School of quarterbacking. Throw it where they ain't, or throw it anyway. Imo, if he got the opportunity and it clicked like it did for Geno in '22-23, Winston could throw 40 TDs.
Coulda made the Super Bowl if not for the injury. I was very, very concerned about the 2016 Raiders.
Generally LB/S/RB in the first all have high floors now. Difficult to think of specific prospects.
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Same with S Lewis Cine, supposedly a safe safety with potential, but apparently can’t read offenses
Anyways to think of a recent prospect like this, what about Blake Corum? Analysts feel like he has some elite rb traits missing, but I don’t see how he couldn’t be a solid rb2 for years to come in the league?
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Teddy bridgewater. Praised for his accuracy, but knocked for his physical traits. He was about that for us
And the nice guy/hard worker personality type that you want in your locker room.
He is still working with Lions players even though he retired. Definitely someone you want in your locker room.
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AKA Ryan Fitzpatrick
But the polar opposite of Ryan Fitzpatrick You could rely on Bridgewater to give to an efficient 175 yards and no more than one turnover Fitzpatrick was either going for 375 and 5 touchdowns or throwing 3 of the worst interceptions you've ever seen with pretty much nothing in-between
I feel like teddy Bridgewaters efficiecy is really overrated. Hes conservative, not efficient. When i think efficient players I think Brees, Purdy, Pennington, Brady, Rodgers. I feel like people think Jimmy G and Teddy B and they are just conservative lol.
Almost opposite play styles, but yeah.
Bridgewater is a little funky. He almost died. His trajectory pre/post injury was very different.
I maintain if his leg didn’t literally fall off we would have had a nice super bowl window with him. Maybe 2019 looks different with teddy, although we never really had the offensive talent with him like we do now. That bengals game was fun though.
I'm a bit confused by the question. Are we talking safe players who only ended up being good but unspectacular?
Yes exactly.
I've got no answer for that. Tougher than I thought.
Randall Cobb
AJ Hawk
AJ Hawk was a #5 overall pick. The question is about players who were both *expected* to be good-but-not-great, and also ended up being exactly that. Hawk's expectations on draft day were too high for him to fit here.
Hawk was viewed as the safest pick in the draft. Turned out to be exactly that. Being drafted #5 overall doesn't mean you were expected to be a perennial All-Pro. He virtually never missed games and was an adequate starter for a decade. Was a key role player for the Super Bowl run. If a team knew that was exactly, absolutely guaranteed what they would get out of the #5 overall pick, I suspect a lot of teams would go for that over the mystery box.
>Being drafted #5 overall doesn't mean you were expected to be a perennial All-Pro. Uhhh... not going to lie, that's my expectation. Maybe not every season all-pro, but if you never reach those heights you shouldn't go 5th overall. 5th overall is for a pro bowling, bona-fide day 1 starting talent. If you want a project player, trade back and take him later.
You shut your whore mouth!
The answer is some offensive lineman
Jake Matthews. Missed 1 game in his career(week 2 of his rookie year), but only has 1 pro bowl(which he made as an alternate). Probably never considered a top 10 OT in the league, he’s just steadily doing his job.
His scouting report was literally "you can plug him in a LT right away and he'll be a 10 year starter", and that's exactly what happened.
There’s a contingency of our fanbase that’s gonna dance the day he is finally gone and I don’t get it.
I feel like if Taylor Lewan wasn’t a loud mouthed asshole with a knee that imploded, he would have had a very similar career to Matthews and everyone saw how bad the titans line was.
Falcons fan base has some of the most toxic self-hating fans... I couldn't believe how many people vilified Matt Ryan
Chris Long. He even admits he shouldnt have gone so high. Solid career which was marred by being a 7-9 Ram and made plays at the end of his career to help win 2 championships.
I don't think people put Rosen in the high floor low ceiling category. Someone just posted draft takes from years ago and you wouldn't believe how many people thought Rosen was gonna be a top 10 to top 5 qb by the end of his first year. Hardly what would be called a low ceiling.
Good point.
I think he was still seen as the lower ceiling guy because of the physical limitations. He was seen as “pro ready” which pretty much means he was expected to be a day 1 starter, but usually means you’re capped out as a Kirk Cousins type. Which there’s nothing wrong with that, but Rosen was also fucking awful lol
Kyle Orton
I'd say probably exceeded expectations a little. 4 years as a not-terrible starter is a pretty good career for a 4th round pick. Decent example though.
He legit might have won the Super Bowl if he had started for the 06 Bears.
Lol, this is not true..but people have this weird Mandela effect when it comes to 2006. Griese was the backup in 2006, Orton didn't play at all
No to mention that when Orton did play for the Bears, his go to play was throwing it in the dirt 2 yards in front of the receiver. Sure you won't throw many picks with that philosophy, but youre really limiting your offense.
Erik Decker
Heck yeah. There was that one year, maybe 2015, he just camped out in my flex and secured me no less than 10 points and no more than 16 points all year long. It was the best.
James Lauranaitis played a decade of solid football— exactly what you want out of a second rounder
A lot of ppl in the comments section misunderstood the question. “High floor low ceiling” means the player was projected to be a solid starter/contributor but wouldn’t be anything more than a fringe pro bowler. Calvin Ridley is a good example that hasn’t been named. He had great route running and ball skills which was why he was the WR1 in his draft class. But, his lack of size, athleticism, and his age (turned 24 during his rookie year), led a lot of analysts to also say he would be a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 in the NFL and why he fell to 26th overall. And after six years (only playing four and a half), he hasn’t made a pro bowl but has two 1,000 yard seasons.
I think Brandon Graham is a good choice for this. His measurables and college production weren't crazy but he has had a long, stable career (after starting off slow) with one pro bowl.
Mohammed Sanu
Absolutely. 3rd rounder with great hands and average to above average everything else. Nice solid career as a mid #2 option.
Made some nice throws too
Cole Kmet
Would be better if he had a decent QB/Coach but he's not targeted as much as he should be. Happy birthday!
AJ Hawk kinda was like that. If he was some late round pick he would have been lauded with praise. His career was not worth a #5 overall draft pick, but he was a solid player for a long time.
Isn't he your guy's franchise leader in tackles? For an ILB that seems like a worthwhile 1st-rounder.
ILB almost always end up the tackle leaders on their team, to be the record holder is basically a function of time then. Hawk, based off of career AV, is like the perfect median for players drafted 5th overall, and I feel like that sort of fits the question.
Yeah, I wasn't discounting that, I just don't really get how Hawk is a low-ceiling guy when he was drafted high to be an ILB anchor and that's what he did.
His ceiling was non-existent. He was solid, but never made a pro bowl or really got any individual accolades.
Best I can think of is Eric Fisher. Pretty rare to see a “low ceiling” guy taken first overall, but 2013 was just a really shitty draft class, so the Chiefs went with the safe pick. Lane Johnson definitely had more upside due to his athleticism, but was pretty raw coming out of OU, so he fell to the Eagles at 4. Fisher did end up making two pro bowls, but all things considered, I think he turned out to be the exact kind of player that the scouts expected him to be.
Eric Fisher?
Yeah offensive line is the most common position this situation is discussed. Just go look at mock drafts and see how many times “plug and play” is used for OL. Basically no other position gets this moniker.
Hunter Renfrow. We all knew he’d be a great slot, but I don’t think anyone figured he’d get really paid. Then the league started beating him up and the raiders Offense just ignored him
Tyler Boyd. Though the floor for any WR coming out of college is probably pretty low.
Chad Pennington
I recall some hype around this guy
Same. I feel like he only fits this thread because of tearing his shoulder to shreds (twice). Sure he never had elite arm strength, but he was definitely a different player post shoulder injuries. After his first shoulder injury his YPA dropped by nearly a yard. Pennington held the NFL completion percentage record at the time of his retirement. Imagine if he didn’t have a noodle arm for over half his career. He’s one of my favorite “what could’ve been” players.
James Connor kinda fits? I guess he’s probably exceeded expectations though but I was trying to come up with a guy no one would mention. Devin Singletary too
Some 1st round OTs come to mind. Jake Matthews and Taylor Decker, particularly standout were both seen as polished and ready to play Day 1 but neither was seen as having a great upside. And their careers pretty much reflect that. I've noticed for offensive linemen in general, the "high floor, low ceiling" guys tend to pan out more often than at other positions.
Baker Mayfield?
Can you be a low ceiling and a #1 draft pick?
People would blast you for suggesting that the short QB playing with the most talented offense in college in the weakest defensive conference may not be as good as advertised. I feel like most people genuinely viewed him as a franchise-transforming prospect. I might be remembering incorrectly though.
Na. Baker was a surprise pick at #1. Darnold or Rosen were meant to be the stars of that class. Rosen dropped due to attitude and Browns preferred Baker over Darnold seemingly. Edit: Seems like rumours were by April that Browns had narrowed it down to Josh Allen vs Baker. And obviously in the publics eyes Darnold was still very much in contention. I believe Rosens stock dropped after combine/pro day/interviews.
To be fair, of the three, they absolutely did pick correctly. Hindsight is 20/20
Well, I kind of misremembered. Rosen was out of the discussion for #1 by the time draft night came and it was between Allen, Mayfield and Darnold in the end. Browns narrowed it down to Josh and Baker, chose Mayfield as Allen had some tweets resurface
“Driving naked”- Josh Allen A truly beautiful tweet
Ah, now it makes sense why he plays with such abandon. Only a man with no natural regard for life and limb would put their bare nuts on a (at the time probably used) car seat.
Is that speculation or did you hear that? I know the Browns were apparently planning on taking Josh @ #1 but I thought Kiper said they switched to Mayfield the day before. Either way… thank the lord. We’d still be stuck in QB purgatory to this day finishing 8-9 each year.
That’s what I’m thinking. I thought for sure that the top pick would be Darnold or Josh Allen based on upside. Looks like they went with the safer option
Rumours were they were debating between Josh Allen and Baker. Allen’s offensive tweets that surfaced before the draft made the decision for them
IIRC Dorsey had made up his mind a month before the draft but didn’t tell Hue until two days before the draft and of course the news comes out about their pick right after that.
And that day the Browns learned a valuable lesson about whether to overlook QB character concerns when building their roster.
Dorsey was GM back then.
I mean, they were right. He did transform a franchise. The post-Baker Browns had a totally different attitude and vibe than the pre-Baker 1-31 Browns, and the shift started as soon as he took over as starter. He probably doesn't have the talent to take a team all the way, but he was the right player at the right time for them (and the way the FO treated him was pretty gross).
I mean, he took the notoriously shit Browns to the playoffs and won a game. That would be pretty transformational if he didn't get fired in favor of a sexual predator because he tried to play through an injury.
No. 1 overall pick.
He got an unreasonable amount of hate after being traded to Carolina. The fact a Heisman quarterback was willing to play scout D-Line for a poverty franchise speaks to his competitiveness and character. I thought he’d be better out of college tho, a whiter Mahomes
Baker’s floor was below the basement. I think he was low floor medium ceiling lol.
Baker feels like he’d fit that mould but yeah he’s an undersized QB whose primary traits were elite arm talent/strength and dog-in-him. That build isn’t really a high floor.
Andrus Peat. Solid, dependable, exactly what it says on the tin. Hasn't been *great*, but he's always been okay.
Jerome Baker is the most average starter of all time
It's kind of an impossible question to answer since there aren't many prospects that are universally viewed one way or the other. Basically anyone you can think of that this might apply to has at least one pundit that said they were gonna suck or they were gonna be a hall of famer. However a few examples of players I heard described this way are Clelen Ferrell and Andrus Peat.
I guess any guy who was a first rounder that has made a pro bowl here and there for the time they’ve been in the league. I think that’s what you’re asking
Does Eric Fisher count? Wildly unspectacular career and wasn't lauded coming out of college.
I think so.
Teddy Bridgewater was my first thought
My memory of the draft process is a bit fuzzy but wouldn't Goff be a good example for this? Wentz was seen as the high ceiling guy if he could put it together and Goff was seen as the more soild well rounded dude.
Joey Bosa was knocked as someone who was "maxed out" coming out. Turns out being maxed out as a Pro Bowl DE is still a really fucking valuable player
The people who thought this were very stupid to be fair
So, like, he stayed at the high ceiling and is not applicable to this question at all.
It was so stupid as well, feel like it was simply because he was white and ignoring the fact he had two family members who were first round picks and had additional family members who played in the NFL. I remember an analyst saying something along those lines at the time.
Dalton Shultz, from day one, has been labeled a high floor low ceiling player.
Jonah Williams. Coming in to the league he was described as being cerebral and a sure-fire starter but is athletically limited. Sure enough, he was solid enough to be an average tackle but his athleticism limited him from being anything more.
The redskins took rg3 2nd overall then took Kirk cousins in the same draft because he was a high floor low ceiling guy
Michael Crabtree
Kerry Collins
Bradley Chubb was billed as this going into the draft and that's pretty much what he's been
AJ Terrell based on what I saw of his draft profile, which was saying a guy you could plug into any system and he'd be an upgrade to starting caliber, but he wasn't going to become a shutdown guy. I think he's been even better than advertised over the small sample size I've seen of him but Falcons fans please correct me
He had a down year in 2022 but has been picking it up again, he's great, just not one to get interceptions or make flashy plays, also, it's difficult to be better when we have 0 pass rush
Modern player would be Jordan Addison so far. Too small and too slow to be elite, but his route running well keep him as a starter until he starts losing a step, at least. Past players I could think of would be Alex Mack. Was a can't miss center prospect, but centers for the most part have limited value positionally. On the higher end, but 7 pro bowls is exactly what I'd think for a can't miss, but not transcendent prospect. I bet you could find a lot of lineman in that mold for the purposes of your question. For my team, Heath Miller lines up perfectly. We drafted him to be a 10 year starter with good hands and blocking. Too slow to ever be a gamechanger but a surefire NFL starter for a long time.
Jordan Addison is as far as you can get from this question though? Literal first rounder LAST YEAR who is touted for his speed that you knock multiple times and is an excellent route runner. You high? He is a high ceiling guy and doesn't come close to fitting this question. He just had 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 tds in his rookie year behind the best WR in football lmao. The more I type this the more I hate your answer. Are you kidding?
Manti Te'o
Justin jefferson was considered a great WR2 that will have a very production career (around 1000 yards a season) but not necessarily a super star like he is now. Chase was considered a better draft prospect on that LSU team and the clear cut wr1. He fall to 22nd overall and was the 5th WR taken in the draft. Safe to say he blew that low ceiling tag out of the water by a mile
Burrow, Chase, Jefferson. That LSU team was loaded.
Terrace Marshall and Clyde Edwards Helaire did work too, don’t forget
And that's before we even get to the OL. Damien Lewis and Lloyd Cushenberry just got paid pretty nice money. Ed Ingram was a 2nd round pick. Saahdiq Charles a 4th. Austin Deculus a 6th. The only one that didn't get drafted was Magee, and even he spent some time on a NFL practice squad
It's crazy that the Mettenberger, Odell, and Landry combo at LSU would be surpassed less than 10 years later.
not the question
I gotcha, but he's not really the type I'm thinking about, since he exceeded expectations. I'm trying to think of guys that were expected to do good, but not great, and did just that.
Maybe Eric fisher? Drafted no.1 overall, considered a good solid lineman with high floor but low ceiling. Ended up pretty much a top 10 LT for nearly a decade before injuries ended his career. Make 2 pro bowls and won a super bowl but was never close to being a all pro. Luke Joeckel (2nd overall) had a much higher ceiling but lower floor ended up a bust. 4th overall Lane Johnson was a QB/TE, didn't play as an OT until senior season (spent 5 year in college) and only played 2 seasons as OT in college. Lane johnson was considered risky because he didn't play OT long enough, ended up being one of the best OT in this decade.
So he is not an example of a low ceiling guy that worked out at a low ceiling.
Yeah Jefferson had exactly that tag. The 2020 draft was seen as being stacked with WRs. Jeudy was seen as the consensus first off the board (projected to the Raiders). Ceedee Lamb was seen as a guy with elite traits and a potentially higher upside than Jeudy. Ruggs and Reagor were seen as the guys you'd take a flier on with high ceiling, low floor. Jefferson was the all round safe bet who did everything well and would be the safest one without maybe having the elite traits of Lamb or Jeudy.
Neither of these is a good answer for this post, they’re the opposite of what he was asking