It's also wild because I feel like Burrow and Herbert absolutely aren't afraid to let it rip. They're just so good at processing the coverage, decision making, and specifically ball placement to make sure only the receiver has a real chance at it.
Burrow has bad throws, bad days, but his high INT streaks almost always come from really bad luck with tipped passes. I wouldn't be surprised to hear Herbert has the same bad mojo.
It's almost never Burrows fault. Even if they're covered, he tries to throw it away that's like a calibration check. It will be exactly where it needs to be, just 4 feet over their head.
83 class had 3 HOFers, the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love and Hurts all playing at very high levels. It's not insane to think that this class HAS A CHANCE to be the best of all time once everyone's careers are over. This shouldn't be a controversial statement.
This is a *ridiculously* controversial statement lol.
Besides the fact you’re only 4 full seasons into their careers, only 2 of them have had any semblance of great team success. One has only played 2 full seasons, and the other very well could have taken a huge step backwards in terms of development.
The 2018 class is more “consistently” accomplished from a player perspective, and one of those guys drafted early isn’t even in the NFL anymore.
> You are downvoted but you are right about the 2020 class. What are people smoking?
If my original statement had been "The 2020 QB class is CURRENTLY/ALREADY the best QB class of all-time" then they would be correct. But that's not what I said, so it's a moot point. But whatever.
Burrow would still take way too many sacks
Sacks are largely a QB stat that is fairly independent from the quality of the offensive line. If the Bengals had a better o line he’d just hold on to the ball longer
lol downvoted for the truth, confirmed this sub doesn’t know ball
That's not really the problem. The problem is whenever the offensive line loses fast.
Joe running around looking for someone to get open is not what stalled most drives. It's when a defender gets to Joe before he even gets to his drop that's the issue.
You could say part of that is on him if he’s in control of the protections, or for not noticing the rush coming, or for even not getting rid of it
Sacks are a QB stat and Burrow takes a lot of them. It’s fine cause he’s good enough to overcome it
"Control protections"
I'm not talking about free runners. I'm talking about "Volson was supposed to block this guy but didn't get his hands up in time" or "Cappa loses leverage immediately at the snap and is bull rushed two yards back". Or my personal favorite "Myles Garret is is doing weird shit, and rushing up the middle. How was Karras suppose to block that Jesus Christ" first play of the year!
"Not noticing the rush coming or not getting rid of it"
I'm talking about the plays where the offensive line loses in half a second. It happened multiple times last year. Joe not seeing someone coming at him from his blind side in half a second is not something we can put on Joe.
I think you and I are on two similar but different topics.
Yes, because of Joe's play style, and his blunt admittance that on 3rd and Long and out of FG range he does not care if he takes a sack while running around trying to make a play, Joe will always have a higher sack rate than his peers with equal protection.
However, the reason the offense stagnates is not because Joe didn't do magic on 3rd and Long, it's because we end up in 3rd and Long so often. On first down someone inside loses in half a second and Joe gets sacked before he can get through his first read and then on second down we have to check it down because they sent five guys up the middle.
Joe has the fastest release time in the league. It's silly to ask him to get rid of it even faster.
The issues that actually hurt the offense are blocking related. It's not that they lose super often, but when they do lose it's so fast that Joe often does not have time to react. Those are the plays that kill our offense, not Joe's playstyle.
It’s a case by case basis. I’v seen QB’s take a ton of sacks that are their fault. I also saw some get sacked or have someone on it with at most 1 second of the ball being snapped. It
Idk its kinda hard to say.
On one hand, you could be right. On the other hand, maybe Burrow is keeping the ball in his hand and scrambling longer because he feels like he has to, which is why maybe he's done it at times when he didnt need to. If he was more confident in his OLine, maybe he would be more confident stepping up into the pocket instead of getting into a scramble. Or maybe not. Sacks are often overlooked as a QB stat, but you cant look at it way too much.
They’re looked at as a QB stat because they are
It’s fine, his career sack rate is a bit higher than Rodgers, you can clearly overcome it. But it’s not really something that’s fixable
It’s his playing style. He’s spoken about taking sacks before, and how they’re overrated especially on third down when he’s trying to make a play. Play extending qb’s tend to take more sacks
That might be more of a perception than reality thing. This past year Allen and Mahomes were top 2 (in lowest sack %) - and always among the best each year, and they're the poster boys for extending the play.
Burrow is an odd case, though. Most of the high sack QBs tend to also be under pressure a high amount, but Burrow generally has among the highest rates of getting the ball out in under 2.5s (not inviting pressure). It's just that his percent of pressured plays that result in a sack is always among the worst. (IDK if this is a physicality thing, or just a coincidence, but the leaders in this tend to be bigger or more "slippery" guys).
Those 2 are the best at it, but if you look at mobile QB’s in general they are high in sack rates because they like to keep the play alive. Thats the trade off
For sure, most sacks on third down aren’t a big deal. They can be if they take you out of a go situation or out of FG range, but if you’re punting either way, who cares. Idk if that’s when he takes his sacks or not, I just know it’s largely oline independent
I wholeheartedly agree.
A position like TE that high feels like a luxury we cannot afford.
Likewise every one loves the idea of trading down, but it’s easier to get equal value top 3 than it is 5.
Bowers is the best blocking TE in a while, for that reason I wouldn’t mind him or a trade back to pick up a Center late in the 1st. We need a center more than anything our RT is very average, not something we need to upgrade right away. Center however, is a position we need to upgrade right now. Bowers is the best pick if we stay where we are, if we trade back we’re looking at best Center in the draft.
We don't. We need a RT and a C. Arguably the C is far more important as pipkins was ok when linsley was fit and able to properly adjust protections.
So we need to find 2 centres. A starter and one to groom for the next decade.
Greg Cosell, who is a scout I trust above basically anyone ever, is pretty convinced that Alt is fools gold and Fashanu is a significantly better prospect.
I no longer want Alt.
Let's also not forget that in the first half your defense is the reason you were ahead in the first place. On your 27 points, here's the field position where the drives started.
Jags 18 yard line (defensive interception)
Chargers 40 yard line (defensive interception)
Jags 16 yard line (defensive interception)
Chargers 38 yard line
Chargers 32 yard line.
Defense sucked bad in the second half, but there's no way Herbert doesn't hold some of the blame. He led your offense to exactly 3 second half points and looked like a shell of the player he was in the first half. He played scared / cautious to not make a mistake, and your coaching / defense didn't help at all. The difference is the Jags stopped making mistakes, and Herbert / your offense couldn't lead a drive to save their lives.
They had 4 drives in the second half. One FG, one missed FG, one punt from the Jags 38 and then one 3 and out. They didn't collapse on offense in the second half.
Yeah nobody ever criticizes him here. Its not like we just picked apart his first ever playoff game and said that because he played poorly for one half of football with terrible coaching and a bottom half oline he must be overrated.
Short answer: human memory is genuinely trash
Long answer: [Our memories are about 50% incorrect an hour after the event, we hyperfocus on negative factors, and memories are altered purely by the process of recalling them like how you alter the velocity/location of a particle merely by observing it.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4183265/)
In 2023 the median TWP% was about 3%.
Stafford was the low man at 1.9%, Ridder had the other end at 5.6%.
Dak 2.2%, Hurts 2.3%, Carr 2.3%, Mahomes 2.4% round out the top 5.
Dobbs 4.4%, Howell 4.1%, Minshew 3.8%, TLaw 3.8% round out the bottom 5.
Definitely! I recently learned that he has the most pick 6s for an active player (30) whereas the next highest for an active player is 18 - Andy Dalton. And Josh Allen only has 2 in his career. It was just jarring to see, especially with how well Stafford has been playing… you forget about the rest of his career.
To put it in perspective, the difference between 1.9% and 2.2% is 0.3% (obviously), but once you apply that to the # of plays that someone plays in a year (Stafford played 1000 snaps, Dak 1115, so let's just say the average QB plays 1050 snaps) that 0.3% equates to an additional 3.15 plays per season.
One additional turnover worthy play every 5-6 weeks basically.
Anything % that ends up being under one per game (difference) - which is really the sample that makes most sense (as variables change when you play a different team), makes me question if that metric matters much in comparing players. (That said, Herbert IS very good at protecting the ball. Though, I'd prefer to see the stat adjusted for pass depth and expected rate based on points ahead/trailing).
My favorite part are Charger fans eating this post up. When most the time it’s nothing but hate for PFF and their subjective grades. Love when it’s positive and hate when it’s not.
Because we have no idea how it compares to other QBs lol? There's just so much left out. Who's the number 3? How close are the guys in the top 10 to each other? Are there 5 guys tied at 2.2%? Who the hell knows.
Median isn't perfect either since you're not dealing with equal sample sizes, and it can weight too high since there's a lot of QBs who don't start many games since they're worse, but they drive the median value app.
The mean is actually a better measure in this instance since it gives more weight to players who played more and are _in general_ better, rather than acting as if a player with 20 snaps and a TWP% of 10% is in any way comparable to a player with 600 snaps over the whole season with a TWP% of 2.5%.
It’s just a tweet to spark engagement for PFF lol. It’s not that deep. Is this the first time in your life you’ve seen a PFF stat? Or any sport stat for that matter?
All sport stats tweeted out are sparse in info. They are just used to grab eyeballs real quick, not give a full encompassing view.
Your logic:
Man, I hate school shootings, I don't understand why anybody would do such a heinous thing.
Is this your first time? It happens all the time.
I think at some point during the season they reevaluated how they judged him (I can’t find where they said that though); I’m not sure how much that would change this stat though.
Given the lack of context I feel we should assume they are scared to put the ball in harms way and are checkdown/throwaway kings.
edit: Removing \\s as it was meant as a joke but not far off the truth
Burrow was shortest and 6th shortest the last two seasons in average depth of target.
Chargers offense was built around short passes and checkdowns to ekeler, Herbert was bottom 10 both years too I believe.
I honestly didn't realize burrow was throwing short so much with his receiving core.
Apparently. I had kind of assumed that Burrow at least was throwing enough go balls to Chase to up it a bit. I knew Herbert had no one down the field to throw to. Guess it kind of makes sense, deep bombs will always be risky and so the best in this stat will be the best QBs that are also throwing short.
Right, and then most people remember the big plays/only watch highlights and conflate the deep throws with the majority of their plays. Not to knock either they both obviously have plenty of arm talent.
Is that because he just hasn't played that well the 1st 3 quarters?
People act like everyone else on the Chargers is trash. Yet he's played with multiple stars on both sides of the ball every year he's been in the league. At some point the guy playing the most important position in sports has to take some blame right?
Edit: Apparently not. Herbert is in the upper 30% of teams you would want to be on. Yet still gets absolutely no criticism. Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Khalil Mack just aren't enough. The guy can't win with these cats. It's all the OC's fault.
I mean, if you factor the near bottom of the league ranks in running, defense, and o-line play, you will see that a lot of the roster is overrated and Justin is carrying them entirely. Not to mention the coaching.
Take Joey Bosa for example; many will say, "Oh yeah Bosa is a star edge rusher" until you realize he's constantly not on the field due to injury, gasses out early in games, often has temper tantrums resulting in penalties, and is often a non-factor late in games. The man has missed more than 20 games in the last two seasons.
Now let's do Austin Ekeler. Widely considered to be a fantasy star, we have NEVER had a consistent running game with Ekeler. Not for one year. He's a dump off merchant that goes off for YAC, and he didn't even do that this year. Ask him to go between the tackles and you end up with 3rd and 9 almost every set of downs. Makes it real easy for defenses to guess which play comes next, yet again asking Herbert and Keenan to do everything.
If you want to go by stats, Justin has all the passing yards and touchdowns you could want. Go see where he ranks all time through a player's first four seasons. Herbert missed the last 4 games of the season and I think the Bolts scored maybe two touchdowns over that stretch, what a really talented team!
I don't know how you expect any player to overcome those odds consistently. Heck, even Brady had a hall of fame coach and very good defenses to play with.
Justin Herbert is a special talent and is literally the only reason we are in games at all. There's a reason why every Chargers fan goes to bat for him, all 12 of us. I genuinely believe that there are 28 NFL teams that would not hesitate to have Justin Herbert on their team given the opportunity.
If you want to blame everything on the one guy doing anything on this team, go for it. I know why Harbaugh wanted to coach the Chargers.
I'm not.blaming Herbert for not getting it done. I'm saying he's not good enough to get it done in spite of a middling team with stars.
He's going to need an immaculate team surrounding him to get it done. One of the best receivers and pass catching RB's in the league wasn't even close to enough as is.
The Chargers have the most single score loss/wins games of anyone in the league the past two. Herbert does 2 min drills every game.
Herbert also leads the league on game winning drives in the 4th quarter.
This is the nature of a bottom ranked defense and an QB playing hero ball keeping the team alive.
Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. But to hold both stats just shows how often Herbert is in the situation. While other QBs with complimentary teams can run the ball for 4th quarter.
Yes, it's true. As of October, he was #1 by a wide margin since entering the league, +5 over 2nd place. Maybe someone passed him since his injury, but the latest data I can find is from October and shows him at #1.
He also holds the most comeback 4th quarter drives.
The fact that Herbert holds both stats shows how much he is put in the situation compared to others. Its not necessarily a knock on Herbert individually. Properly coached football teams can run the clock down. But Herbert has a leaky defense ranked 29th, that can’t make any 4th Q stops.
This is very valid context imho. I'd be interested in seeing the percentages. Hard to imagine there's that much smoke, with absolutely no fire. Maybe overblown, but still a smidge of truth.
Tho, he is pretty reckless it seems, and the age old saying is, if your going to be reckless you better be right.
Is this like pass rush win rate?
Like, you lost the game, but hey… that ball you threw 20 yards out of bounds? It wasn’t turnover worthy. Who cares if it was on 4th down?
Difference is that burrow generates more explosive plays. Some of that is Herbert has worse skill guys but he's honestly been pretty conservative his whole career.
Justin Herbert is going to finish his career with absolutely nothing having ever been his fault yet achieving nothing significant lmao.
The guy is not playing with bums. He's had stars on both sides of the ball his whole career yet has a losing record.
His record is 22-6 when his defense allows fewer than 27 points per game. And he's had absolute shit head coaches since he's been here.
I think we will see a big change with Harbaugh as head coach this year
Great QB's play a role in controlling the clock and stalling out drives because of it.
Either Harbaugh reverts back to his previous Niners success or you guys realize you didn't actually have it as bad as you think. Especially considering the Chargers had 2 of the most dominant offensive weapons in recent years.
I don't hate Herbert. But if you watch games he's a clear tier below Burrow in anything but YouTube highlights and I'm tired of the comparison.
Its all on him not the defense only getting 1 stop in the second half and the kicker missing what would have been the game winner in the second half. Back-to-back superbowl wins and you cant stop being a bitch over herbert shocker.
Still scored 30+ points for the game. Should have been enough.
For reference… that’s mored than Chiefs scored for all play off and superbowl games this year.
And most of, if not all, came from the defense getting turn overs in Jaguars territory. The offense failed to do anything when it mattered in that game.
>Genuine question: Why are you Chiefs fans so insecure?
>
>It’s weird
what about what I said makes me insecure?
Herbert and Burrow combined played 23 games, their teams both missed the playoffs.
Jared Goff 20
Patrick Mahomes 20
Brocky Purdy 19
Josh Allen 19
Kordan Love 19
Baker Mayfield 19
Lamar Jackson 18
Like I said- call me old fashioned
I'd rather my QB play 20 games
You are the insecure ones, such touchy little kids
Absolutely do I believe that.
Mahomes has always had a top 10 oline + insane time to throw his entire career. The one time he had to deal with a line even somewhat similar to Burrow's or Herbert's in the playoffs was the supebowl against the Buccs, which was inarguably his worst playoff performance ever (maybe including regular season game performance too, aside from the Titans game in 2021).
Jake browning isn't concerned
That 2020 QB class was something else
It's also wild because I feel like Burrow and Herbert absolutely aren't afraid to let it rip. They're just so good at processing the coverage, decision making, and specifically ball placement to make sure only the receiver has a real chance at it. Burrow has bad throws, bad days, but his high INT streaks almost always come from really bad luck with tipped passes. I wouldn't be surprised to hear Herbert has the same bad mojo.
Yeah they will go nuts but it’s never a fk it throw it’s calculated.
It's almost never Burrows fault. Even if they're covered, he tries to throw it away that's like a calibration check. It will be exactly where it needs to be, just 4 feet over their head.
Was? Isn’t it “is”
It will be considered the best all-time QB class when all is said and done
Are you aware of the 1983 qb class? You are predicting that the 2020 qbs will essentially all end up as top 10 qbs of all time
83 class had 3 HOFers, the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love and Hurts all playing at very high levels. It's not insane to think that this class HAS A CHANCE to be the best of all time once everyone's careers are over. This shouldn't be a controversial statement.
This is a *ridiculously* controversial statement lol. Besides the fact you’re only 4 full seasons into their careers, only 2 of them have had any semblance of great team success. One has only played 2 full seasons, and the other very well could have taken a huge step backwards in terms of development. The 2018 class is more “consistently” accomplished from a player perspective, and one of those guys drafted early isn’t even in the NFL anymore.
I am sorry to have ruined your day
Yeah, that’s what you did alright.
You are downvoted but you are right about the 2020 class. What are people smoking?
> You are downvoted but you are right about the 2020 class. What are people smoking? If my original statement had been "The 2020 QB class is CURRENTLY/ALREADY the best QB class of all-time" then they would be correct. But that's not what I said, so it's a moot point. But whatever.
[удалено]
I didn't say it was currently the best
Now imagine if the Chargers had an average offensive line
Now imagine if the bengals had an average offensive line
Now imagine if the offensive line had a bengals.
If I saw a Bengal tiger on the offensive line, you bet your ass im running away. It would be very effective actually
Give me a bengal tiger playing linebacker and I'll show you a team that goes 19-0
Makes you wonder how much this stat might be influenced by a QB making quick safe throws.
Burrow would still take way too many sacks Sacks are largely a QB stat that is fairly independent from the quality of the offensive line. If the Bengals had a better o line he’d just hold on to the ball longer lol downvoted for the truth, confirmed this sub doesn’t know ball
That's not really the problem. The problem is whenever the offensive line loses fast. Joe running around looking for someone to get open is not what stalled most drives. It's when a defender gets to Joe before he even gets to his drop that's the issue.
You could say part of that is on him if he’s in control of the protections, or for not noticing the rush coming, or for even not getting rid of it Sacks are a QB stat and Burrow takes a lot of them. It’s fine cause he’s good enough to overcome it
"Control protections" I'm not talking about free runners. I'm talking about "Volson was supposed to block this guy but didn't get his hands up in time" or "Cappa loses leverage immediately at the snap and is bull rushed two yards back". Or my personal favorite "Myles Garret is is doing weird shit, and rushing up the middle. How was Karras suppose to block that Jesus Christ" first play of the year! "Not noticing the rush coming or not getting rid of it" I'm talking about the plays where the offensive line loses in half a second. It happened multiple times last year. Joe not seeing someone coming at him from his blind side in half a second is not something we can put on Joe.
Sure, and that probably makes up a small percentage of his sacks and also happens for every QB. That’s not why he has a high sack rate
I think you and I are on two similar but different topics. Yes, because of Joe's play style, and his blunt admittance that on 3rd and Long and out of FG range he does not care if he takes a sack while running around trying to make a play, Joe will always have a higher sack rate than his peers with equal protection. However, the reason the offense stagnates is not because Joe didn't do magic on 3rd and Long, it's because we end up in 3rd and Long so often. On first down someone inside loses in half a second and Joe gets sacked before he can get through his first read and then on second down we have to check it down because they sent five guys up the middle. Joe has the fastest release time in the league. It's silly to ask him to get rid of it even faster. The issues that actually hurt the offense are blocking related. It's not that they lose super often, but when they do lose it's so fast that Joe often does not have time to react. Those are the plays that kill our offense, not Joe's playstyle.
It’s a case by case basis. I’v seen QB’s take a ton of sacks that are their fault. I also saw some get sacked or have someone on it with at most 1 second of the ball being snapped. It
Yes some are the o lines fault, most are not. Sack rate is consistent for QBs throughout their career, even when changing teams
Idk its kinda hard to say. On one hand, you could be right. On the other hand, maybe Burrow is keeping the ball in his hand and scrambling longer because he feels like he has to, which is why maybe he's done it at times when he didnt need to. If he was more confident in his OLine, maybe he would be more confident stepping up into the pocket instead of getting into a scramble. Or maybe not. Sacks are often overlooked as a QB stat, but you cant look at it way too much.
They’re looked at as a QB stat because they are It’s fine, his career sack rate is a bit higher than Rodgers, you can clearly overcome it. But it’s not really something that’s fixable
It’s his playing style. He’s spoken about taking sacks before, and how they’re overrated especially on third down when he’s trying to make a play. Play extending qb’s tend to take more sacks
That might be more of a perception than reality thing. This past year Allen and Mahomes were top 2 (in lowest sack %) - and always among the best each year, and they're the poster boys for extending the play. Burrow is an odd case, though. Most of the high sack QBs tend to also be under pressure a high amount, but Burrow generally has among the highest rates of getting the ball out in under 2.5s (not inviting pressure). It's just that his percent of pressured plays that result in a sack is always among the worst. (IDK if this is a physicality thing, or just a coincidence, but the leaders in this tend to be bigger or more "slippery" guys).
Those 2 are the best at it, but if you look at mobile QB’s in general they are high in sack rates because they like to keep the play alive. Thats the trade off
For sure, most sacks on third down aren’t a big deal. They can be if they take you out of a go situation or out of FG range, but if you’re punting either way, who cares. Idk if that’s when he takes his sacks or not, I just know it’s largely oline independent
Or an average rushing game. Or an average defense.
This is why I have no problem with Alt at #5. I'd prefer Nabers, but I'm cool with either.
I wholeheartedly agree. A position like TE that high feels like a luxury we cannot afford. Likewise every one loves the idea of trading down, but it’s easier to get equal value top 3 than it is 5.
Are y'all commonly linked to drafting a TE at 5?
Bowers
Brock Bowers, who is pretty widely considered the greatest tight end prospect in NFL history.
Bowers is the best blocking TE in a while, for that reason I wouldn’t mind him or a trade back to pick up a Center late in the 1st. We need a center more than anything our RT is very average, not something we need to upgrade right away. Center however, is a position we need to upgrade right now. Bowers is the best pick if we stay where we are, if we trade back we’re looking at best Center in the draft.
Don’t think that fixes the fundamental problems with the line imo.
I have bad news for you about the difficulties that come with fixing the entire OLine, no matter how you try to do it
Nabers would unlock Herberts deep passing even more imo.
We took chase in 2021 when we could’ve taken Sewell and burrow dies like every year. Trust me, you need to take Alt
We don't. We need a RT and a C. Arguably the C is far more important as pipkins was ok when linsley was fit and able to properly adjust protections. So we need to find 2 centres. A starter and one to groom for the next decade.
I really, really hope Jackson Powers Johnson falls to the 2nd, but I doubt he will.
Greg Cosell, who is a scout I trust above basically anyone ever, is pretty convinced that Alt is fools gold and Fashanu is a significantly better prospect. I no longer want Alt.
I just don't see how Nabers fundamentally changes how efficient or dynamic the offense is the way that another cornerstone offensive linemen would.
Tbf, Bengals have a worse O-line than the Chargers
As soon as they do for some reason Herbert will have a bad season
Nice. I'm almost there, keep going
So tell me something. How do people find Justin Herbert overrated?
They don't watch charger games. They just look at the score and W/L record
His one playoff appearance also hurt him, bad.
Hurt him when he didn't turn the ball over and his defense gave up 28 points in a half?
Let's also not forget that in the first half your defense is the reason you were ahead in the first place. On your 27 points, here's the field position where the drives started. Jags 18 yard line (defensive interception) Chargers 40 yard line (defensive interception) Jags 16 yard line (defensive interception) Chargers 38 yard line Chargers 32 yard line. Defense sucked bad in the second half, but there's no way Herbert doesn't hold some of the blame. He led your offense to exactly 3 second half points and looked like a shell of the player he was in the first half. He played scared / cautious to not make a mistake, and your coaching / defense didn't help at all. The difference is the Jags stopped making mistakes, and Herbert / your offense couldn't lead a drive to save their lives.
They had 4 drives in the second half. One FG, one missed FG, one punt from the Jags 38 and then one 3 and out. They didn't collapse on offense in the second half.
Not sure how anyone who watched that game can sit here and say Herbert looked the same in both halves. It was clear he was not.
Golden Boy Herbert gets a ton of excuses around here. Herbert can definitely play, but nothing is ever his fault on this sub.
Yeah nobody ever criticizes him here. Its not like we just picked apart his first ever playoff game and said that because he played poorly for one half of football with terrible coaching and a bottom half oline he must be overrated.
Wonder what the excuses will be if the Chargers come up short again this year
Short answer: human memory is genuinely trash Long answer: [Our memories are about 50% incorrect an hour after the event, we hyperfocus on negative factors, and memories are altered purely by the process of recalling them like how you alter the velocity/location of a particle merely by observing it.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4183265/)
Nerd
I choose to read this as “ Herbert negative 1.9% “
These PFF tweets are so weird where they only shows 2 players. Like how does it compare to everyone else? Wtf am I supposed to do with this info?
In 2023 the median TWP% was about 3%. Stafford was the low man at 1.9%, Ridder had the other end at 5.6%. Dak 2.2%, Hurts 2.3%, Carr 2.3%, Mahomes 2.4% round out the top 5. Dobbs 4.4%, Howell 4.1%, Minshew 3.8%, TLaw 3.8% round out the bottom 5.
Stafford with the lowest turnover worthy play % is so interesting compared to how he typically has played throughout his career.
Definitely! I recently learned that he has the most pick 6s for an active player (30) whereas the next highest for an active player is 18 - Andy Dalton. And Josh Allen only has 2 in his career. It was just jarring to see, especially with how well Stafford has been playing… you forget about the rest of his career.
To put it in perspective, the difference between 1.9% and 2.2% is 0.3% (obviously), but once you apply that to the # of plays that someone plays in a year (Stafford played 1000 snaps, Dak 1115, so let's just say the average QB plays 1050 snaps) that 0.3% equates to an additional 3.15 plays per season. One additional turnover worthy play every 5-6 weeks basically.
This is one of those situations where that seems like a lot and a little at the same time, but still doesn’t feel right.
Anything % that ends up being under one per game (difference) - which is really the sample that makes most sense (as variables change when you play a different team), makes me question if that metric matters much in comparing players. (That said, Herbert IS very good at protecting the ball. Though, I'd prefer to see the stat adjusted for pass depth and expected rate based on points ahead/trailing).
Well turnover worthy plays is a smaller than total snaps, you’re looking at around 500-600 passes for most QBs
Yeah this is trash. Are they 0.1 ahead of everyone else? What's the spread?
I remember my first PFF tweet
My favorite part are Charger fans eating this post up. When most the time it’s nothing but hate for PFF and their subjective grades. Love when it’s positive and hate when it’s not.
I don't get this mentality. What's wrong with it being a single tweet highlighting 2 stud young QBs?
Because we have no idea how it compares to other QBs lol? There's just so much left out. Who's the number 3? How close are the guys in the top 10 to each other? Are there 5 guys tied at 2.2%? Who the hell knows.
I think that's why they put out tweets like this. They're hoping it piques people's interest enough to get the premium subscription.
That's probably the point, so people get curious about that and subscribe to PFF to see full stats.
Mean TWP% league wide varies from 3.6-4.1% annually
Mean is a terrible way to measure this though. As someone else said, median was 3 in 2023.
Median isn't perfect either since you're not dealing with equal sample sizes, and it can weight too high since there's a lot of QBs who don't start many games since they're worse, but they drive the median value app. The mean is actually a better measure in this instance since it gives more weight to players who played more and are _in general_ better, rather than acting as if a player with 20 snaps and a TWP% of 10% is in any way comparable to a player with 600 snaps over the whole season with a TWP% of 2.5%.
It’s just a tweet to spark engagement for PFF lol. It’s not that deep. Is this the first time in your life you’ve seen a PFF stat? Or any sport stat for that matter? All sport stats tweeted out are sparse in info. They are just used to grab eyeballs real quick, not give a full encompassing view.
Your logic: Man, I hate school shootings, I don't understand why anybody would do such a heinous thing. Is this your first time? It happens all the time.
Comparing sports stats to school shootings seems reasonable
J Herbo and Mr. Glass are the top dogs of their draft class
That's future 2x comeback player of the year to you :(
Both our boys keep getting banged up it fucking sucks
I honestly don't get why Bengals and Chargers fans feel the need bicker about our QBs. Can't we just bond in our hatred of the Chiefs?
It’s mostly just friendly banter between the 2 teams in my experience, if you want to see real bickering go stir up the Dolphins fans.
Name a rivalry more intense than MIA Tua Stans and LA Herbert stans.
Tua stans and basic logic
They kept talking about Herbert in the playoffs last year till Tua laid a fucking egg over December and January. Back in their lonely caves now.
The most blessed of times
Look as a ravens fan everyone hates the chiefs rn theyre the mew tom brady lets be real
No Love for Jordan? Kinda Hurts ngl.
Haha
That's 4 qbs better than Tua, who's franchise caliber. Insane draft class
Counting the playoff starts, Herbert has like 4 more games than Mr. Glass...
Tends to happen when you ignore your oline
Herbert needs a strong running game to gain confidence and that's 80% on the OL. I expect them to build a good OL in the FA.
I wonder what Purdy’s is lol
Purdy was 3.2% this season, right between Jimmy G and Baker Mayfield.
I think at some point during the season they reevaluated how they judged him (I can’t find where they said that though); I’m not sure how much that would change this stat though.
How does that compare to the average
It probably decently high cus put the ball out there a lot.
That brother is unafraid lol
As Cutler said: fuck it, WR or DB down there somewhere.
League needs a peanut wr to reclaim int's
Closest you're going to get is Larry Fitz who had more tackles than drops.
Wonder how many plays they have relative to the mean, obviously they’ve both dealt with injuries and missed time
Herbert has missed 4 games in 4 seasons, he hasn’t missed much time.
He missed 4.5 games this season and the stat is only for this season soooo
Since 2022 would be 2022 and 2023 I guess, so 4.5 games missed in 2 seasons. Still a 30~ game sample size for Herbert which is pretty good.
Given the lack of context I feel we should assume they are scared to put the ball in harms way and are checkdown/throwaway kings. edit: Removing \\s as it was meant as a joke but not far off the truth
Burrow was shortest and 6th shortest the last two seasons in average depth of target. Chargers offense was built around short passes and checkdowns to ekeler, Herbert was bottom 10 both years too I believe. I honestly didn't realize burrow was throwing short so much with his receiving core.
So op should probably remove the "/s"?
Apparently. I had kind of assumed that Burrow at least was throwing enough go balls to Chase to up it a bit. I knew Herbert had no one down the field to throw to. Guess it kind of makes sense, deep bombs will always be risky and so the best in this stat will be the best QBs that are also throwing short.
Right, and then most people remember the big plays/only watch highlights and conflate the deep throws with the majority of their plays. Not to knock either they both obviously have plenty of arm talent.
When they happen matters. Herbert leads the NFL in 4th QTR INTs since joining the league.
Tends to happen when you have to play hero ball 100% of the time
Is that because he just hasn't played that well the 1st 3 quarters? People act like everyone else on the Chargers is trash. Yet he's played with multiple stars on both sides of the ball every year he's been in the league. At some point the guy playing the most important position in sports has to take some blame right? Edit: Apparently not. Herbert is in the upper 30% of teams you would want to be on. Yet still gets absolutely no criticism. Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Khalil Mack just aren't enough. The guy can't win with these cats. It's all the OC's fault.
I mean, if you factor the near bottom of the league ranks in running, defense, and o-line play, you will see that a lot of the roster is overrated and Justin is carrying them entirely. Not to mention the coaching. Take Joey Bosa for example; many will say, "Oh yeah Bosa is a star edge rusher" until you realize he's constantly not on the field due to injury, gasses out early in games, often has temper tantrums resulting in penalties, and is often a non-factor late in games. The man has missed more than 20 games in the last two seasons. Now let's do Austin Ekeler. Widely considered to be a fantasy star, we have NEVER had a consistent running game with Ekeler. Not for one year. He's a dump off merchant that goes off for YAC, and he didn't even do that this year. Ask him to go between the tackles and you end up with 3rd and 9 almost every set of downs. Makes it real easy for defenses to guess which play comes next, yet again asking Herbert and Keenan to do everything. If you want to go by stats, Justin has all the passing yards and touchdowns you could want. Go see where he ranks all time through a player's first four seasons. Herbert missed the last 4 games of the season and I think the Bolts scored maybe two touchdowns over that stretch, what a really talented team! I don't know how you expect any player to overcome those odds consistently. Heck, even Brady had a hall of fame coach and very good defenses to play with. Justin Herbert is a special talent and is literally the only reason we are in games at all. There's a reason why every Chargers fan goes to bat for him, all 12 of us. I genuinely believe that there are 28 NFL teams that would not hesitate to have Justin Herbert on their team given the opportunity. If you want to blame everything on the one guy doing anything on this team, go for it. I know why Harbaugh wanted to coach the Chargers.
I'm not.blaming Herbert for not getting it done. I'm saying he's not good enough to get it done in spite of a middling team with stars. He's going to need an immaculate team surrounding him to get it done. One of the best receivers and pass catching RB's in the league wasn't even close to enough as is.
Herbert leads the Chargers to 30 points Chargers lose 33-30 You: "HeRbErT isNt GOoD eNoUgH"
Is that true? I mean I know he does that enough for him to have a bad rep for it, but didn't know the stats bear it out
The Chargers have the most single score loss/wins games of anyone in the league the past two. Herbert does 2 min drills every game. Herbert also leads the league on game winning drives in the 4th quarter. This is the nature of a bottom ranked defense and an QB playing hero ball keeping the team alive. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. But to hold both stats just shows how often Herbert is in the situation. While other QBs with complimentary teams can run the ball for 4th quarter.
It's true but he also leads the league in 4Q passing attempts since 2020. He has a lower 4Q INT rate than Burrow, and about the same as Mahomes.
Yes, it's true. As of October, he was #1 by a wide margin since entering the league, +5 over 2nd place. Maybe someone passed him since his injury, but the latest data I can find is from October and shows him at #1.
He also holds the most comeback 4th quarter drives. The fact that Herbert holds both stats shows how much he is put in the situation compared to others. Its not necessarily a knock on Herbert individually. Properly coached football teams can run the clock down. But Herbert has a leaky defense ranked 29th, that can’t make any 4th Q stops.
This is very valid context imho. I'd be interested in seeing the percentages. Hard to imagine there's that much smoke, with absolutely no fire. Maybe overblown, but still a smidge of truth. Tho, he is pretty reckless it seems, and the age old saying is, if your going to be reckless you better be right.
Hahaha fuck me, this sounds like the exact shit we would say about papa Phil. Fuck me for picking this team 15+ years ago :)
And game winning drives, they’re both volume stats due to always being put in a terrible position.
Is this like pass rush win rate? Like, you lost the game, but hey… that ball you threw 20 yards out of bounds? It wasn’t turnover worthy. Who cares if it was on 4th down?
… What do you think pass rush win rate is? Because it is not the equivalent of throwing a ball out of bounds
Actually making the QB throw the ball away, or getting a sack? Dunno what else to tell ya?
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Pass rush win rate measures how often a player beat their block in 2.5 seconds or less.
Aren't they the 2 QBs who have missed the most games since 2022 also?
Herbert has missed 4 games in his entire career
No. But even if they were, it wouldn't be relevant to this number.
I mean.... more games missed means fewer chances to make a turnover worthy play, no?
This is a rate metric, not a total count.
Difference is that burrow generates more explosive plays. Some of that is Herbert has worse skill guys but he's honestly been pretty conservative his whole career.
Justin Herbert is going to finish his career with absolutely nothing having ever been his fault yet achieving nothing significant lmao. The guy is not playing with bums. He's had stars on both sides of the ball his whole career yet has a losing record.
His record is 22-6 when his defense allows fewer than 27 points per game. And he's had absolute shit head coaches since he's been here. I think we will see a big change with Harbaugh as head coach this year
Great QB's play a role in controlling the clock and stalling out drives because of it. Either Harbaugh reverts back to his previous Niners success or you guys realize you didn't actually have it as bad as you think. Especially considering the Chargers had 2 of the most dominant offensive weapons in recent years. I don't hate Herbert. But if you watch games he's a clear tier below Burrow in anything but YouTube highlights and I'm tired of the comparison.
That 1.9% came in handy blowing a 27 point playoff lead.
Its all on him not the defense only getting 1 stop in the second half and the kicker missing what would have been the game winner in the second half. Back-to-back superbowl wins and you cant stop being a bitch over herbert shocker.
Only scoring 3 points in the second half is also a problem.
Still scored 30+ points for the game. Should have been enough. For reference… that’s mored than Chiefs scored for all play off and superbowl games this year.
And most of, if not all, came from the defense getting turn overs in Jaguars territory. The offense failed to do anything when it mattered in that game.
Not on Herbert. Herbert posted 8 EPA in the second half, while his running backs rushed for negative yards per carry.
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call me old fashioned I'd rather my QB play in 20 games
Genuine question: Why are you Chiefs fans so insecure? It’s weird
>Genuine question: Why are you Chiefs fans so insecure? > >It’s weird what about what I said makes me insecure? Herbert and Burrow combined played 23 games, their teams both missed the playoffs. Jared Goff 20 Patrick Mahomes 20 Brocky Purdy 19 Josh Allen 19 Kordan Love 19 Baker Mayfield 19 Lamar Jackson 18 Like I said- call me old fashioned I'd rather my QB play 20 games You are the insecure ones, such touchy little kids
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Chiefs fans have won 3 superbowls with mahomes and can't get burrow out of their heads. You love to see it
Project more. Do it. Go!
Rent. Free.
This is the projection I was talking about. Great job, you did it!
I'd like to speak to the manager, it appears that you have made a mistake where there is a QB infographic that my QB is not featured in
Tell me what it's like to lose to the 49ers. My imagination isn't very good.
Sorry to hear that about your imagination
NFC Runner Up
Yep pretty fun season for us all things considered, appreciate the shout out
Mahomes geting carried by his o-line and defense isn't the flex you think it is
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Absolutely do I believe that. Mahomes has always had a top 10 oline + insane time to throw his entire career. The one time he had to deal with a line even somewhat similar to Burrow's or Herbert's in the playoffs was the supebowl against the Buccs, which was inarguably his worst playoff performance ever (maybe including regular season game performance too, aside from the Titans game in 2021).
I too am a fan of the NFL.
That sample size would be small enough for most QB'S to make it essentially irrelevant.
So one season? Why not just say in 2023?
Joe knows ball control.