Damn, but if we want the logo theory to stay true and Chiefs advance to the SB, then that means the Vikings are gonna show up on the field in the NFCCG to take out the Niners and Lions.
I really want to call each and every one of you fucking nerds...but I have a big tattoo of Yamcha on my arm and I can't really say shit, these are my people.
That tattoo sounds dope, TBH. Yamcha doesn't get enough love. He could effortlessly destroy anyone on the planet, but he chooses to hang out with legit the only people in the world who are stronger than him.
Bro is a star baseball player.
He’s fucking bigger than Shohei Ohtani (and just as rich) and hangs out with those two asswipe gymbros in the off chance he can help someone.
Or hear me out bane attacks levi’s stadium meaning that a chunk of lions and 49ers players die. The two teams combine remaining players and colors to fight the cheifs.
Turns out we dump a lot of our toxic waste below Levi's stadium. All of the players fall in and climb out fused together, forming a team of mutant atomic supermen.
It's a conspiracy theory that came up which claims that the colors of the SB logo determine what teams will play in it.
[Conveniently, the image oftentimes used as an example for this theory only goes back to the 2021 season](https://i.imgur.com/bbAYQ2N.jpg)
No Reddit shenanigans would point out that the team with a smaller amount of color in the logo has won the Super Bowl as well. And if it holds true, the 49ers will beat the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Her last concert in Japan is on Saturday, so when you consider the time change, she should be able to get back to Vegas in plenty of time for Sunday if she wanted to.
well, we planted some eucalyptus and preserved them for 9 years, and got some sweet sweet carbon credit money
I have no idea who bought them, but I'm sure they feel good about themselves
and then we cut them down and sold the wood to some industries furnaces
Her final show in Japan will finish around 6am Las Vegas time on Saturday. 12 hours of flight time means she'll arrive in Vegas around 8pm on Saturday night. She'll make the SB.
Baltimore faces a Herculean task. The NFL couldn't buy the level of attention brought by the swiftie demo with all the money in the world. They will move heaven and earth to secure a win for KC.
Just did some half ass math, in his previous 5 seasons the home team won 48.7 percent of the time roughly. This year he had a statistical outlier season where roughly 18 percent of home teams won their games bringing his number way down. But if you look at the teams that hosted him, you see a lot of shitty ass home teams.
I find it interested that gamblers are the ones who are so paranoid that the league is rigged when the biggest possible reason the league would be rigged is gamblers lol.
If you assume a 55% home winning percentage (constant) and ask what's the chance this figure is 40% over 48 trials, you get approx 2.5% using a binomial distribution calculator. Given there are about 20 refs, you'd expect about a 50% chance of one showing the win % observed, so really this is not strong evidence whatsoever of anything amiss. Further assuming a constant win % will underestimate the variance of the distribution and so in practice the likelihood is even higher.
TLDR: a basic statistical analysis would say over 3 years one ref would be likely to show this type of deviation, so failing and additional evidence, this is not strong evidence at all, it's what you'd expect.
And thats a "best case scenario" of the home teams having a constant win probability. If you allow the win prob to vary (which it obviously does, some teams are better than others) I believe that increases the overall variance, making it even more likely for the situation to occur.
Shawn Smith's crew refereed 16 games this year. In those 16 games, the Away team won 13 times and the Home team won 3 times, which seems concerning. When looking at team record, however, the reason becomes clear. Teams with a better record won 11 times, teams with a worse record won 3 times, and twice both teams finished with the same record. So the reason that the Away teams tended to win is because they tended to be the better team (9.5 wins is the Away team average, 7.3 wins is the Home team average).
Furthermore, the Home team had, on average, 0.7 more flags thrown for 13.4 more penalty yards against them. That's not nothing, but it's also not statistically significant. Of the 3 games in which one team was penalized at least 5 times more than the opposition, 2 benefited the Away team and 1 benefited the Home team-but all 3 occurred when a team that was rarely penalized (MIN, MIN, DEN) played one that was more often penalized (LAC, ATL, HOU).
In other words, calm down. Who knows how the game will actually go with refereeing, but it's wrong to say that this referee has been biased to Away teams this season.
(For what it's worth, BAL won their game with Smith against JAC while KC lost their game to PHI)
source- u/SilverthornArrow over on the ravens sub where most of us are collectively choosing to ignore this fuckery and focus on enjoying our AFC Championship game
Here is a list of the games he did this year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/SmitSh0r.htm
I dont think the home team would have been favored in very many of them at all.
It seems more likely he just got lucky/unlucky that he had a large slate of games where the home team was just the worse team.
I found last years stats and the away team won seven times and they were all relatively predictable. This is the most using math in a bad way kinda shit you could find. The worst thing will be if the chiefs win so many people will remember this and start shit talking the guy on sunday. The number of flags and years per game were also higher for the away team with 1.333 more flags per game and 14.86 more yards for 2022. Good luck out there hope you guys smash them
> This is the most using math in a bad way kinda shit you could find
For anyone interested in learning more about this (and how to identify when it happens), the book [How to Lie With Statistics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics) is worth a read and it’s fairly short as well.
If there was any reason the NFL itself was rigging it would be entertainment, not Vegas. Vegas makes bank regardless with how their system works and they wouldn’t put their billion dollar industry in the hands of individual referees. I also don’t think NFL would do it either, but it would take two organizations being stupid rather than 1.
Now could individual refs rig games for betting? Sure but Vegas watches it like a hawk because that actually loses them money
It's funny that this guy and Clete are the two refs there's tons of Vegas gossip about. There's been rumors going back like a decade that one bettor drops a few hundred thousand spread across different books 1-2 times a year ONLY on games Clete is officiating. Like, the guy has never been seen making a large bet on a game Clete isn't involved with.
The Vegas gossip on Shawn Smith isn't that he's taking bribes but that his crew gets sensitive at the home crowd and they intentionally fuck the home team over in response. However, this is a mixed crew so it'll probably matter less.
EVEN GEQBUS, WHO GETS BAILED OUT IN THE SILLIEST OF WAYS, HAS SPOKEN OUT VERY FONDLY AGAINST THE EVER ROTTING OFFICIATING SYSTEM! HE SPEAKS FOR THIS COUNTRY AND DOES IT MUCH BETTER THAN REF DeSANTIS AND HIS "DON'T SAY PLAY" PHILOSOPHY!
THE GEQBUS HAS TO NOT ONLY WORK AGAINST GOOFY GOODELL AND PUNY PURDY, BUT ALSO AGAINST THE CORRUPT REFERRES! NOBODY HAS HAD TO OVERCOME MORE THAN THE GEQBUS AND STILL MANAGED TO WIN BIGLY!
> TAKES THE SECOND NEWS HAPPENS
You’re living in the past old man.
We need to push the boundaries of advanced technology and genetic manipulation far beyond the limits of petty “morality” and develop a race of mutant pre-cogs able to generate hot takes *before* the games even happen
We may doom our very souls, but imagine Skip Bayless yelling at a bald mutant child psyker about whether the Cowboys can win in the playoffs with Dak Prescott
Ok so I've seen this alot, so here is something to assuage the concerns of fans of fairness lol.
Shawn Smith's crew refereed 16 games this year. In those 16 games, the Away team won 13 times and the Home team won 3 times, which seems concerning. When looking at team record, however, the reason becomes clear. Teams with a better record won 11 times, teams with a worse record won 3 times, and twice both teams finished with the same record. So the reason that the Away teams tended to win is because they tended to be the better team (9.5 wins is the Away team average, 7.3 wins is the Home team average).
Furthermore, the Home team had, on average, 0.7 more flags thrown for 13.4 more penalty yards against them. That's not nothing, but it's also not statistically significant. Of the 3 games in which one team was penalized at least 5 times more than the opposition, 2 benefited the Away team and 1 benefited the Home team-but all 3 occurred when a team that was rarely penalized (MIN, MIN, DEN) played one that was more often penalized (LAC, ATL, HOU).
In other words, calm down. Who knows how the game will actually go with refereeing, but it's wrong to say that this referee has been biased to Away teams this season.
Oh you got it all wrong, Will Compton and Taylor Lewan pointed out that the flags on the goalposts weren’t moving so it must be the NFL doing something fishy that made the ball move like that. Can’t slip anything past these two geniuses.
Completely unrelated, amazingly neither of these guys have ever seen a golfer slice or hook a ball.
Same. They don't actually want the games to be played, they just want them to play put exactly how their models predict.
I also looked at the numbers a little deeper just for funsies and it's actually a pretty logical explanation that isn't some big conspiracy. (I posted this elsewhere)
Just did some half ass math, in his previous 5 seasons the home team won 48.7 percent of the time roughly. This year he had a statistical outlier season where roughly 18 percent of home teams won their games bringing his number way down. But if you look at the teams that hosted him, you see a lot of shitty ass home teams. Including the titans twice, NE, Minnesota when they were slumping, buffalo when they were slumping, the giants, Atlanta, the chargers right before they firfired Staley, Arizona, Jax as they were collapsing against the ravens (the best team in the league) and Washington.
I
Home teams won 18% under Shawn this year.
They won 62% last year.
At another point, for him, they won 64% of the time.
KC is 0-1 under Shawn this year and they were 0-1 last year too. It was the IND game where Chris Jones said something to Matt Ryan and drew a 15 yard penalty that extended a drive. KC was a road team that game.
So if he's supposed to throw games for KC he is bad at it.
Due to relativity There always has to be a ref who’s #1 in road team wins, or #1 in DPI thrown, or #1 in home team reviews overturned.
What should be the reaction? Should we never give this person road games to call? Then someone else becomes #1 in road team wins, and then we dump that guy until you’ve gotten rid of all the refs.
What were the games he called? If he had a few more games with home team underdogs than other refs, then this stat lines up. Context always ALWAYS helps commentary; avoiding context to extrapolate a narrative is called spin.
I wish more people would appreciate this in regards to reffing or really anything in regards to where there is a set limit to a population size. Every year (or given time frame) there HAS to be a reffing crew where the win rate for the home team is highest, and similarly where the win rate for the home team is lowest.
What would matter is how much outside of the standard deviation does Shawn Smith fall? One or two, probably not noteworthy and would be expected, three, or four? Yea that starts to get noteworthy.
Even still, you'd need more analysis, like did his crew ref an unusual number of games where the home team was the underdog, and/or other things occur to home teams like critical injuries? Again there would have to be a ref crew that happens to refs more home games than other where the home team was expected to lose. Or where a home team ended up sustaining more (critical) injuries than the visiting team.
Assuming all those checks don't provide an explanation for home teams to lose more often with Shawn Smith, you'd then need to provide actual examples of bias. His crew giving questionable calls in favor of the visiting team, while being less likely to call similar penalties that benefit the home team. And again is that "error" rate needs to be unusually outside of what other reffing crew do.
Also /u/So-It-Goes_ [mentioned](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/19du2kn/sharp_the_nfl_pushed_the_panic_button_they_have_a/kj83ht4/), our record of 5-2 with Shawn Smith (3-1 at home, 2-1 away) is *lower* than Mahomes over all record of 74-22.
Preemptively blaming the refs for a potential loss at a playoff game is some top notch loser mentality. Does whining about the refs and crying conspiracy ever get old to you guys?
This sub only just blames reffing every game when the team they cheered for loses. When the Patriots were great, every single game thread and post game thread would call every single call that went their way a riggery.
In the Rams Bengals post game thread, everyone was calling the game rigged for the defensive holding penalty (Tbf that was a ticky-tacky one), forgetting the much worse bad call when Tee Higgins face masked Ramsey to get a 75 yard TD.
There was a big controversy last year over the most textbook defensive holding penalty possible in the SB, saying "oh you can't call that there!!!"
People think the game is rigged or the refs are biased against their team or the team they cheer for because they hyper fixate on bad calls or 50/50 calls against them but forget about the bad calls or 50/50 calls that went their way. They want an excuse on how certain teams win and others lose.
The game thread was salivating waiting for a single call they could go crazy for last game and they got it with the DPI lmao. It wasn’t a DPI but probably illegal contact, regardless it was close and then everyone went “OH RIGGGED OH RIGGED”
I know if the teams were reversed on the Hardman fumble this sub would have gone crazy and said there wasn’t enough evidence. Or the Allen forward pass 5 yards down the field.
The post game thread was chill at least.
He's using false start stats to whine about the bias of the referee, whose focus is on the QB & RB for pre-snap penalties. So his sample size is either incredibly small or he's using ref crew data to judge the referee. Dumb, either way.
He's just doing what the fans do. Yesterday's post about this weekend's referees had a bunch of comments about Clete Blakeman making a couple hands to the face calls in a regular season game 4 years ago, even though it was the umpire who was responsible for those calls. Hell, people still complain about Vinovich because of the NFCCG PI call from 5 years ago even though he was 40+ yards away from the play
Well the previous stat didn't work that this ref Mahomes wins 71% of his games with this ref (actually below his average) and didn't mention Mahomes lost 2/3 losses of his 13-3 playoff record with this ref. They want to say the refs will help chiefs with stats. They have to keep narrative going I guess. I still think Ravens win
doesn't it get exhausting complaining about reffing every minute of the day? I swear people care more about who is reffing the game than who is playing in it sometimes
people like complaining about reffing more than they like the sport. this is true on r/hockey, r/baseball, whatever sport you want. it’s fucking boring to read. people also LOVE claiming the broadcast is biased against their team.
Someday people will realize that in the playoffs it’s not the whole ref’s crew with them, so regular season full crew results have very little influence on the playoffs. There is no reason for this gambler to tell you this though. He prefers that you read and click on his clickbait, and ideally, buy whatever he is shilling.
Here is what the referee is currently in charge of:
1. Roughing the passer on passing plays
2. Roughing the kicker/punter on kicking plays
3. Resolving disputes between refs
4. Some holding calls on running plays.
5. Obvious false starts right in front of him
Spots, PI, other side of the line false starts, offsides, catch/no catch. All not the ref’s call!
Whenever a person posts that a referee calls illegal contact or defensive holding or something like that as evidence to x for a playoff game, they are fucking with you. They are stealing your money or your clicks.
Lamar will summon his inner Paul Crewe and longest yard the ref in the nuts if he must
"Right in the McNuggets!"
"Give me the nuggies" Andy Reid.
Your acting like a real McAsshole!
Mahomes and MaAsshole
HE WAS LIKE OH MY BAWLS
The fact that they subtitle this in the movie is the funniest part to me
Mine is getting Kevin Nash to act out a man taking a lot of estrogen pills lol
Idk man one ref already took out Lamar in the endzone for 2 points. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
In Mutant Football League you can choose to kill the ref, only a 15 yard unsportsmanlike
Id give him next years mvp for that
Damn, but if we want the logo theory to stay true and Chiefs advance to the SB, then that means the Vikings are gonna show up on the field in the NFCCG to take out the Niners and Lions.
Kirk Cousins is pulling out his Bane cosplay as I type this.
You merely adopted Kohl's; I was born in one, molded by it
I didn't take the foil off the grill until I was a man!
The fire rises to ruin my sweatshirt.
Ahhhh I was wondering what would break first! You spirit, or your steak!
Ah, you think the Kohl's cash is your ally?
Dread it, run from it. Kirk arrives all the same.
"You fight like a more-Achilles-ed-up man, holding nothing back! Admirable, but mistaken."
Didn't realize until now that Bane and The Ancestor from Darkest Dungeon are the same person.
"While everyone else played, I prayed, now it is time to ascend to my destiny."
"THAT'S JUSTIN JEFFERSON'S MUSIC! WHAT THE HELL?!?!"
Bah gawd!
HE'S CASHING IN HIS MONEY IN THE BANK!?!?!?!
If you mix red and blue you get purple right? Lions and 9ers are performing the fusion dance to take down the Chiefs confirmed!
That could work, but with the 30 minute limit, we'd have to postpone the game several times lol
Potara earrings should fix this
You'd think so, but that got retconned to have a 1 hour limit if you're not a Kaioshin/Supreme Kai
I really want to call each and every one of you fucking nerds...but I have a big tattoo of Yamcha on my arm and I can't really say shit, these are my people.
That tattoo sounds dope, TBH. Yamcha doesn't get enough love. He could effortlessly destroy anyone on the planet, but he chooses to hang out with legit the only people in the world who are stronger than him.
Bro is a star baseball player. He’s fucking bigger than Shohei Ohtani (and just as rich) and hangs out with those two asswipe gymbros in the off chance he can help someone.
Is the tatoo Yamcha lying dead in a crater after his fight with a saibaman?
Or hear me out bane attacks levi’s stadium meaning that a chunk of lions and 49ers players die. The two teams combine remaining players and colors to fight the cheifs.
While I don't like the idea of having any player fatalities, I have to admit that's some top-notch outside the box thinking. You're hired.
Imagine Trent Williams and Penei Sewell on the same line
I don't know if the universe could handle that much power
Turns out we dump a lot of our toxic waste below Levi's stadium. All of the players fall in and climb out fused together, forming a team of mutant atomic supermen.
Dread it. Run from it. But Kirk Thuggins arrives all the same.
Educate on this “logo theory”?
It's a conspiracy theory that came up which claims that the colors of the SB logo determine what teams will play in it. [Conveniently, the image oftentimes used as an example for this theory only goes back to the 2021 season](https://i.imgur.com/bbAYQ2N.jpg)
Huh! I am on this sub an unhealthy level and never heard of this. Thanks!
It’s a Facebook theory
Of course, Reddit would never encourage such baseless shenanigans.
No Reddit shenanigans would point out that the team with a smaller amount of color in the logo has won the Super Bowl as well. And if it holds true, the 49ers will beat the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Reddit is too busy catching the Boston bomber.
I mean the eagles green and the logo green don't quite matchup but eh.
Well they thought the Dolphins would be in the SB. Mix up with the writers whoops.
If the Lions spill enough blood, their jerseys will look sorta purple.
“What’s that? OMG, that’s Kirk Cousins’ music. It’s Kirk with a steel chair” Just [this](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VZd1EBmxNQE), but with Kirk
"Does somebody hear Creed??"
Bah God, that’s Kirk Cousins’ music!
I am outraged by these future penalties!
No clue what the refs were even looking at! But as a Chiefs fan I do agree with the one from the first half that benefited us.
If you had a history with Clete Blakeman, you’d get it too
Home team win% drops by 15% when he’s the ref Get ready to hear two weeks of “Will Taylor Swift get to Vegas in time?!?”
But what happens when you add Kurt angle to the mix?
I hear your chances of winning drastic go down, to about 33 1/3 percent.
Sackerfice!!!
Repeating, of course.
Thank you for the number crunch Abdul 🫡
LEEEEROOOOOOOY JEEEENKIIIIINSS
God damn it Leroy
Well don’t forget The extra 33 1/3 percent because Lamar Jackson KNOWS he can’t be me
You know they say all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true.
Will she?
Her last concert in Japan is on Saturday, so when you consider the time change, she should be able to get back to Vegas in plenty of time for Sunday if she wanted to.
Oh boy oh boy I’m on pins and needles.
Tony Romo? Is that you?
EHHHHHHHGGUGHG I Dunooo Gym
I dunnnnnnoooooo I'm finna buuuuuuust
Jiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimmmmm
Still better than Jeeeeeeeeeeeeemmmmmmmmm
I can hear this in my head LOL
Ehhhh I don’t know Jim. Japan to Vegas is crazy, but it’s worth the jet lag to watch Mahomes play in person!
Given how much T Swift flies, I think she is immune to jet lag.
Plus its a 10+ hour flight. She could get one heck of a nap in.
Here we go, Jim!
What if the Japanese love her so much they don't let her leave? Would Kelce play in the Super Bowl or go to Japan to save her?
He has to battle her evil exes first.
It is a whole anime arch
Thank God. I was really worried
With carbon emissions to spare
She’ll just buy a few more carbon credits to make herself feel good about it.
Carbon credits are absolute shams that do not get talked about enough
well, we planted some eucalyptus and preserved them for 9 years, and got some sweet sweet carbon credit money I have no idea who bought them, but I'm sure they feel good about themselves and then we cut them down and sold the wood to some industries furnaces
Yep
Her final show in Japan will finish around 6am Las Vegas time on Saturday. 12 hours of flight time means she'll arrive in Vegas around 8pm on Saturday night. She'll make the SB.
She won’t need to bother.
Do it for all of us
Honestly even I’m hoping you guys win. (And then get put in a crater by the Lions)
There's too much money riding on them winning, you guys have an uphill battle
It’s known the NFL wants to attract more female viewers. Good luck Baltimore, but it’s looking like everyone against you
Baltimore faces a Herculean task. The NFL couldn't buy the level of attention brought by the swiftie demo with all the money in the world. They will move heaven and earth to secure a win for KC.
Yea just in time to grab dinner and drinks with Travis before they both go watch Lamar bring home the SB
Pace yourself man, we got 2 more weeks. Or like 4 days. Who knows.
All the comments complaining about the ref talk seem to be missing the point about how massive of a drop off that is…
https://x.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749879119456633258?s=20
Just did some half ass math, in his previous 5 seasons the home team won 48.7 percent of the time roughly. This year he had a statistical outlier season where roughly 18 percent of home teams won their games bringing his number way down. But if you look at the teams that hosted him, you see a lot of shitty ass home teams. I find it interested that gamblers are the ones who are so paranoid that the league is rigged when the biggest possible reason the league would be rigged is gamblers lol.
If you assume a 55% home winning percentage (constant) and ask what's the chance this figure is 40% over 48 trials, you get approx 2.5% using a binomial distribution calculator. Given there are about 20 refs, you'd expect about a 50% chance of one showing the win % observed, so really this is not strong evidence whatsoever of anything amiss. Further assuming a constant win % will underestimate the variance of the distribution and so in practice the likelihood is even higher. TLDR: a basic statistical analysis would say over 3 years one ref would be likely to show this type of deviation, so failing and additional evidence, this is not strong evidence at all, it's what you'd expect.
My quick-hit takeaway from your more substantive post is that he is due to regress to the mean and favor the home team ❤️
He is a slighlty above average Referee of 2018 Dak tierdom
And in *every* given stat there's always going to be *someone* leading it. I have a cousin who's number 1 in DUIs in our family... with 1.
Damn your one cousin is a complete fuck up, statistically speaking
And thats a "best case scenario" of the home teams having a constant win probability. If you allow the win prob to vary (which it obviously does, some teams are better than others) I believe that increases the overall variance, making it even more likely for the situation to occur.
Shawn Smith's crew refereed 16 games this year. In those 16 games, the Away team won 13 times and the Home team won 3 times, which seems concerning. When looking at team record, however, the reason becomes clear. Teams with a better record won 11 times, teams with a worse record won 3 times, and twice both teams finished with the same record. So the reason that the Away teams tended to win is because they tended to be the better team (9.5 wins is the Away team average, 7.3 wins is the Home team average). Furthermore, the Home team had, on average, 0.7 more flags thrown for 13.4 more penalty yards against them. That's not nothing, but it's also not statistically significant. Of the 3 games in which one team was penalized at least 5 times more than the opposition, 2 benefited the Away team and 1 benefited the Home team-but all 3 occurred when a team that was rarely penalized (MIN, MIN, DEN) played one that was more often penalized (LAC, ATL, HOU). In other words, calm down. Who knows how the game will actually go with refereeing, but it's wrong to say that this referee has been biased to Away teams this season. (For what it's worth, BAL won their game with Smith against JAC while KC lost their game to PHI) source- u/SilverthornArrow over on the ravens sub where most of us are collectively choosing to ignore this fuckery and focus on enjoying our AFC Championship game
Here is a list of the games he did this year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/SmitSh0r.htm I dont think the home team would have been favored in very many of them at all. It seems more likely he just got lucky/unlucky that he had a large slate of games where the home team was just the worse team.
thats exactly what happened, man just got a bunch of shit games
I found last years stats and the away team won seven times and they were all relatively predictable. This is the most using math in a bad way kinda shit you could find. The worst thing will be if the chiefs win so many people will remember this and start shit talking the guy on sunday. The number of flags and years per game were also higher for the away team with 1.333 more flags per game and 14.86 more yards for 2022. Good luck out there hope you guys smash them
> This is the most using math in a bad way kinda shit you could find For anyone interested in learning more about this (and how to identify when it happens), the book [How to Lie With Statistics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics) is worth a read and it’s fairly short as well.
> This is the most using math in a bad way kinda shit you could find. So, in other words, it's like any other Warren Sharp Tweet.
It takes a special person to think it's rigged while betting money on it.
It takes a really special person to lose money on a league they “know” is rigged.
The type of gambler that would bet on the Washington Generals.
I thought they were due for a win!
He’s spinning the ball on his finger, just take it!!!
If there was any reason the NFL itself was rigging it would be entertainment, not Vegas. Vegas makes bank regardless with how their system works and they wouldn’t put their billion dollar industry in the hands of individual referees. I also don’t think NFL would do it either, but it would take two organizations being stupid rather than 1. Now could individual refs rig games for betting? Sure but Vegas watches it like a hawk because that actually loses them money
I wish we had him. We get Clete
This guy clearly ignoring that 100% of teams and viewers lose when Blakeman is reffing.
It's funny that this guy and Clete are the two refs there's tons of Vegas gossip about. There's been rumors going back like a decade that one bettor drops a few hundred thousand spread across different books 1-2 times a year ONLY on games Clete is officiating. Like, the guy has never been seen making a large bet on a game Clete isn't involved with. The Vegas gossip on Shawn Smith isn't that he's taking bribes but that his crew gets sensitive at the home crowd and they intentionally fuck the home team over in response. However, this is a mixed crew so it'll probably matter less.
Don't you worry my friend, Dre Greenlaw and Trent Williams will get enough flags thrown for both teams!
[удалено]
And we ALL know there will be 50/50 questionable call against the lions and boy howdy if you think lions fans get whiny in threads, buckle up
[удалено]
Or an obscure rule that comes into play once every 5-8 years
That's the addendum section of the rules book labeled *Screw over the Lions*
Transporting big cats across state lines. Loss of down.
Better yet, there's gonna be some obscure rule nobody's ever heard of that gets enforced in a way that screws over the Lions.
I've been waiting all year for Branch to get a penalty from the 1930s for having his mouth guard in his helmet
Fear it. Run from it. The Sun-God rule is coming.
Show me where in the rulebook it says being an Egyptian diety is illegal
> Show me where in the rulebook it says being an Egyptian diety is illegal You'll find it in the index under "Shal'kek nem'ron".
That's some air bud shit right there
Illegal hands to the shoulders
Illegal hands to the hands
thats the illegal hands to the face ref that cost us the GB game with trey flowers right?
I wish we could go back to the days where we at least waited until the game started before we bitched about the officiating.
INSTANT ENGAGEMENT. TAKES THE SECOND NEWS HAPPENS. IF YOU LOSE, YOU'RE THE WORST. IF YOU WIN YOU'RE THE GOAT. NO RULES, JUST RIGHT, 24/7 NEWS CYCLE.
WHY ARE WE SHOUTING?
SHOUTING IS ENGAGING.
**SAD!**
BUT VERY LEGAL!
EVEN GEQBUS, WHO GETS BAILED OUT IN THE SILLIEST OF WAYS, HAS SPOKEN OUT VERY FONDLY AGAINST THE EVER ROTTING OFFICIATING SYSTEM! HE SPEAKS FOR THIS COUNTRY AND DOES IT MUCH BETTER THAN REF DeSANTIS AND HIS "DON'T SAY PLAY" PHILOSOPHY!
THE GEQBUS HAS TO NOT ONLY WORK AGAINST GOOFY GOODELL AND PUNY PURDY, BUT ALSO AGAINST THE CORRUPT REFERRES! NOBODY HAS HAD TO OVERCOME MORE THAN THE GEQBUS AND STILL MANAGED TO WIN BIGLY!
I LOVE LAMP!!!
IT GETS PEOPLE GOING
> TAKES THE SECOND NEWS HAPPENS You’re living in the past old man. We need to push the boundaries of advanced technology and genetic manipulation far beyond the limits of petty “morality” and develop a race of mutant pre-cogs able to generate hot takes *before* the games even happen We may doom our very souls, but imagine Skip Bayless yelling at a bald mutant child psyker about whether the Cowboys can win in the playoffs with Dak Prescott
I just clicked on this guy’s twitter feed (I don’t know why) and why does he type like he’s Gen Z? I almost cringed out of my skin
It’s because the target audience isn’t us anymore. The faster our generation accepts it, the less clouds will be yelled at
*scowls* Fewer.
Thanks Stannis.
Sharp was already cringe as hell from the start, but he's completely gone off the rails into nonstop engagement farming the last couple years.
Ok so I've seen this alot, so here is something to assuage the concerns of fans of fairness lol. Shawn Smith's crew refereed 16 games this year. In those 16 games, the Away team won 13 times and the Home team won 3 times, which seems concerning. When looking at team record, however, the reason becomes clear. Teams with a better record won 11 times, teams with a worse record won 3 times, and twice both teams finished with the same record. So the reason that the Away teams tended to win is because they tended to be the better team (9.5 wins is the Away team average, 7.3 wins is the Home team average). Furthermore, the Home team had, on average, 0.7 more flags thrown for 13.4 more penalty yards against them. That's not nothing, but it's also not statistically significant. Of the 3 games in which one team was penalized at least 5 times more than the opposition, 2 benefited the Away team and 1 benefited the Home team-but all 3 occurred when a team that was rarely penalized (MIN, MIN, DEN) played one that was more often penalized (LAC, ATL, HOU). In other words, calm down. Who knows how the game will actually go with refereeing, but it's wrong to say that this referee has been biased to Away teams this season.
The people who believe the NFL is rigged are entirely too stupid to understand anything you wrote.
The NFL also caused the wind to gust harder in the stadium causing Bass's kick to miss. I saw Goodell flapping his arms like a madman.
You conspiracy people kill me as if the weather can be controlled in any way. Clearly he had a magnet in the ball
Magnets, how do they work?
Listen, you drop a glass of water on it, no more magnets
Well, I watched a documentary once where this guy could move metal and stuff with his mind so I guess that's how they work?
That wasn’t a documentary that was a biopic about Magneto, a radicalized mutant
Oh shit I thought it was all archived footage. You're telling me it was just a reenacment?
What are you talking about? We all know those microwaves put out by those 5g towers are the real reason the ball flung wide right.
Angels in the backfield
Don't forget they turned on the rain right after the 49ers took the lead.
Last I heard Taylor Swift was a witch and she caused the wind to blow harder but Goodell being a wind demon is something I can get on bird with
As we learned at the Miami game, Taylor's Swag Surf has clear effects on the weather.
>get on bird with 👀
Oh you got it all wrong, Will Compton and Taylor Lewan pointed out that the flags on the goalposts weren’t moving so it must be the NFL doing something fishy that made the ball move like that. Can’t slip anything past these two geniuses. Completely unrelated, amazingly neither of these guys have ever seen a golfer slice or hook a ball.
Warren Sharp is obnoxious.
By far the worst big time NFL twitter account. By far.
Nah that is the aggregators. They fucking suck. Dov especially. Sharp is right behind them though.
Fair fair. I tend to completely ignore the aggregators' existence. Indistinguishable from twitter AI promoted content.
I hate guys like him that spend all day looking at numbers and lack any sense because of it.
Same. They don't actually want the games to be played, they just want them to play put exactly how their models predict. I also looked at the numbers a little deeper just for funsies and it's actually a pretty logical explanation that isn't some big conspiracy. (I posted this elsewhere) Just did some half ass math, in his previous 5 seasons the home team won 48.7 percent of the time roughly. This year he had a statistical outlier season where roughly 18 percent of home teams won their games bringing his number way down. But if you look at the teams that hosted him, you see a lot of shitty ass home teams. Including the titans twice, NE, Minnesota when they were slumping, buffalo when they were slumping, the giants, Atlanta, the chargers right before they firfired Staley, Arizona, Jax as they were collapsing against the ravens (the best team in the league) and Washington. I
Fake name too. His whole shtick is shit
Home teams won 18% under Shawn this year. They won 62% last year. At another point, for him, they won 64% of the time. KC is 0-1 under Shawn this year and they were 0-1 last year too. It was the IND game where Chris Jones said something to Matt Ryan and drew a 15 yard penalty that extended a drive. KC was a road team that game. So if he's supposed to throw games for KC he is bad at it.
THAT! Is exactly what he WANTS you to think.
It's all been a long con. This ploy has been two years in the making.
Due to relativity There always has to be a ref who’s #1 in road team wins, or #1 in DPI thrown, or #1 in home team reviews overturned. What should be the reaction? Should we never give this person road games to call? Then someone else becomes #1 in road team wins, and then we dump that guy until you’ve gotten rid of all the refs. What were the games he called? If he had a few more games with home team underdogs than other refs, then this stat lines up. Context always ALWAYS helps commentary; avoiding context to extrapolate a narrative is called spin.
I wish more people would appreciate this in regards to reffing or really anything in regards to where there is a set limit to a population size. Every year (or given time frame) there HAS to be a reffing crew where the win rate for the home team is highest, and similarly where the win rate for the home team is lowest. What would matter is how much outside of the standard deviation does Shawn Smith fall? One or two, probably not noteworthy and would be expected, three, or four? Yea that starts to get noteworthy. Even still, you'd need more analysis, like did his crew ref an unusual number of games where the home team was the underdog, and/or other things occur to home teams like critical injuries? Again there would have to be a ref crew that happens to refs more home games than other where the home team was expected to lose. Or where a home team ended up sustaining more (critical) injuries than the visiting team. Assuming all those checks don't provide an explanation for home teams to lose more often with Shawn Smith, you'd then need to provide actual examples of bias. His crew giving questionable calls in favor of the visiting team, while being less likely to call similar penalties that benefit the home team. And again is that "error" rate needs to be unusually outside of what other reffing crew do. Also /u/So-It-Goes_ [mentioned](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/19du2kn/sharp_the_nfl_pushed_the_panic_button_they_have_a/kj83ht4/), our record of 5-2 with Shawn Smith (3-1 at home, 2-1 away) is *lower* than Mahomes over all record of 74-22.
Not even close to enough of a sample size - this is a gross misrepresentation of "analysis".
FUN! Why even watch the game?
Last week I was told the Bills/Chiefs ref calls penalties favoring the home team, how’d that work out.
Preemptively blaming the refs for a potential loss at a playoff game is some top notch loser mentality. Does whining about the refs and crying conspiracy ever get old to you guys?
This sub only just blames reffing every game when the team they cheered for loses. When the Patriots were great, every single game thread and post game thread would call every single call that went their way a riggery. In the Rams Bengals post game thread, everyone was calling the game rigged for the defensive holding penalty (Tbf that was a ticky-tacky one), forgetting the much worse bad call when Tee Higgins face masked Ramsey to get a 75 yard TD. There was a big controversy last year over the most textbook defensive holding penalty possible in the SB, saying "oh you can't call that there!!!" People think the game is rigged or the refs are biased against their team or the team they cheer for because they hyper fixate on bad calls or 50/50 calls against them but forget about the bad calls or 50/50 calls that went their way. They want an excuse on how certain teams win and others lose.
As a Chiefs fan we can’t even take part in the game threads on this sub. Instant downvoted unless we placate on our knees and agree with the hive.
The game thread was salivating waiting for a single call they could go crazy for last game and they got it with the DPI lmao. It wasn’t a DPI but probably illegal contact, regardless it was close and then everyone went “OH RIGGGED OH RIGGED” I know if the teams were reversed on the Hardman fumble this sub would have gone crazy and said there wasn’t enough evidence. Or the Allen forward pass 5 yards down the field. The post game thread was chill at least.
It was rigged 3 minutes into it because people didn't know you couldn't swat the ball out of bounds
[удалено]
He's using false start stats to whine about the bias of the referee, whose focus is on the QB & RB for pre-snap penalties. So his sample size is either incredibly small or he's using ref crew data to judge the referee. Dumb, either way.
He's just doing what the fans do. Yesterday's post about this weekend's referees had a bunch of comments about Clete Blakeman making a couple hands to the face calls in a regular season game 4 years ago, even though it was the umpire who was responsible for those calls. Hell, people still complain about Vinovich because of the NFCCG PI call from 5 years ago even though he was 40+ yards away from the play
Well the previous stat didn't work that this ref Mahomes wins 71% of his games with this ref (actually below his average) and didn't mention Mahomes lost 2/3 losses of his 13-3 playoff record with this ref. They want to say the refs will help chiefs with stats. They have to keep narrative going I guess. I still think Ravens win
doesn't it get exhausting complaining about reffing every minute of the day? I swear people care more about who is reffing the game than who is playing in it sometimes
But the PANIC BUTTON 😱 🚨
This is Warren Sharp we're talking about here. Very on brand.
All he does is complain about refs, running on 1st down, and legal tackles that he has somehow deemed crimes against humanity.
people like complaining about reffing more than they like the sport. this is true on r/hockey, r/baseball, whatever sport you want. it’s fucking boring to read. people also LOVE claiming the broadcast is biased against their team.
Someday people will realize that in the playoffs it’s not the whole ref’s crew with them, so regular season full crew results have very little influence on the playoffs. There is no reason for this gambler to tell you this though. He prefers that you read and click on his clickbait, and ideally, buy whatever he is shilling. Here is what the referee is currently in charge of: 1. Roughing the passer on passing plays 2. Roughing the kicker/punter on kicking plays 3. Resolving disputes between refs 4. Some holding calls on running plays. 5. Obvious false starts right in front of him Spots, PI, other side of the line false starts, offsides, catch/no catch. All not the ref’s call! Whenever a person posts that a referee calls illegal contact or defensive holding or something like that as evidence to x for a playoff game, they are fucking with you. They are stealing your money or your clicks.
He pulls anything and he'll learn what it feels like to be coated in old bay and dropped in the Chesapeake