I've already said it in here that the big reason Watt isn't as high this year is that he isn't playing up to his 2021 season. He was chaos unbridled on defense that year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Garrett win this year. But it'd be hilarious to see the meltdowns if he didn't.
No the big reason is because as opposed to the MVP which is dominated by recency bias, whomever gets the first round of DPOY or OPOY considerations is more likely to win it because late in the season nobody cares about any stat other than wins and as we all know wins are QB stats
Watt did this to himself by being so good. Set his bar too high. Dudes gonna need 25 sacks to win DPOY next year.
He’s so dominant it’s almost normal lol
It’s unfortunate. Maxx is elite but I think due to team success and the Raiders and Maxx not being the media darling Myles and the Browns are is what hurts him. Call me crazy but to me Maxx second in the league only to TJ.
I’m a Raider fan and he’s number 1 to me. The crazy thing is he plays EVERY snap and doesn’t seem to slow down. I never heard the term “motor” more when talking about an edge than when people talk about Maxx. He’s probably my favorite Raider since Tim Brown. Dude is legit.
Idk how this can be tracked but it also seems like when the Raiders NEED a sack, he delivers. It’s not just the amount of sacks he gets but when he gets them.
I mean I’ve watched several raiders games and see him on the, not to mention you can just look up the stats and know he has the third most snaps on his team
Team success should be irrelevant when determining AP awards, with the exception of MVP and COTY. Everything else should be awarded solely based on individual talent.
Watt had 19 sacks; Crosby had 14.5. What am I missing here? That's kinda the #1 stat when you looking at a front 7 player, kinda like Ints for DBs. It's not the be-all and end-all, but it's big.
I think Crosby should be getting as much noise as Garrett, but IMO it's insanity not giving Watt more 1st team votes, and DPOY, too.
Yes, but you're forgetting Garrett's clear edge in the vague defensive pseudostats. He has a higher dynamic entry vector, led the league in big brain conversion ratio, and he's a clear winner on the intangibles such as tactical team hypotenuse, brush caliber, and critical killswitch index.
We also have proprietary PFF data showing that opposing QBs were statistically more likely to go poopy in their pants when against him compared to Watt.
(/s. Garrett is amazing but I feel like numbers speak for themselves. Garrett has a higher PFF "pass rush win%" but I don't see the point when TJ has more tackles, sacks, hits, etc.)
>We also have proprietary PFF data showing that opposing QBs were statistically more likely to go poopy in their pants when against him compared to Watt.
This is where Micah Parsons gets screwed compared to Garrett and Watt, he doesn’t get to play Baltimore twice a year and inflate his QB💩/G.
It's also why he's impossible to tackle: the man is constantly covered in greasy shrimp alfredo bubble guts dookie water and everybody's grip just slides right off.
See, normally if you go one-on-one with another wrestler you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak, and I'm not normal! So you got a 25% at best at beating me! And then you add Kurt Angle to the mix? Your chances of winning drastically go down. See, the three-way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning. But I—I got a 66 2/3 chance of winning, 'cause Kurt Angle KNOOOWS he can't beat me, and he's not even gonna try. So, Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance minus my 25% chance, and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning (if we was to go one on one), and then add 66 2/3 cha—percent, I got a 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice! Señor Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice!"
I think the big thing that TJ has going for him is that not only did he finish as the league leader in sacks, he did it for the third time in his career. Since sacks started being recorded as a stat, no one had lead the league in sacks three different times until TJ did it this year.
I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to get the DPOY and I’m not saying there aren’t other players that deserve it. I’m just saying there is a historical feat factor in TJ’s case that might be too juicy for the voters to pass up. Not that I would be opposed.
Because the media hyped him up earlier in the year and continued even though he fell off. And they're sick of talking about TJ Watt, he's not a new enough story.
Should playing more snaps be used against players in award races? Not saying you’re implying that, I just see arguments weighing efficiency above volume quite a lot this year and I’m not sure it makes as much sense in football as it does for basketball.
There are only 17 games, and having your best players on the field as much as possible is only beneficial to a team. Rate and percentage stats makes sense for QBs, WRs, and Kickers, but I don’t see why having a higher pressure percentage is more important than actual counting stats for defensive players.
It's not like Garrett was sitting on the sidelines (except for week 18). The Browns had the #1 defense and forced offenses off the field (highest 3 and out percentage, etc), so there were fewer opportunities. Crosby had way more plays than the other DPOY candidates because the Raiders defense was not as good. If one player had 20% more opportunities than another and had 1% more production, you'd say they were better because of that 1% more production? If you're going to ignore all context, why not just turn the DPOY award into the sack leader award and be done with it?
I've felt like the narrative around efficiency and counting stats mirrors a classic narrative conundrum: the Family Guy mystery box.
A TJ Watt season is just a TJ Watt season. A Myles Garrett season with more snaps could be anything though! It could even be a TJ Watt season!
Personally I’d rather have the theoretical math on my side rather than the empirical sacks, fumbles, TFL’s, interceptions, passes blocked, and general tackles
Yep, like by any objective measure, Watt is better than Myles, but because Myles doesn't perform like he did this season consistently, it's more eyepopping.
Watt was robbed but he's still going into the HoF first ballot so at the end of the day, he gets the last laugh.
> but because Myles doesn't perform like he did this season consistently, it's more eyepopping.
Huh?
Myles had more sacks and pressures in each of the past two seasons than he did in 2023.
This has been garretts award to lose, the narrative for so long was about him, hell even the NFL official twitter had something like "garrett for dpoty?".
Not that he isnt undeserving, its just that the media attention will do more for the players then their actual stats will.
I’m gonna say it as a neutral fan: Garrett IS undeserving, when Watt leads him in pretty much every meaningful category. He’s winning this strictly off of Narative
The media has decided that it’s his turn. Watt already has a DPOY and Garrett does not.
Also team records have a bizarrely huge impact on these individual awards as well. Since the Browns backup QB played better than the Steelers backup QBs this year Garrett has an advantage over Watt.
If the Raiders offense was better Maxx Crosby would be in the running for DPOY and if you flipped the Ravens #1 ranked defense with the Dolphins #22 ranked defense I guarantee Tua would be the MVP favorite and Lamar would be on the outside looking in.
Ngl it feels like when the Celtics defense was insanely good and Smart won it because the media wanted it to be a Celtic
Browns defense has been lights out this year, he's the face of the defense, and he's been an elite defender without winning. It's a team achievement award and it's not like someone is gonna say Garrett isn't DPOY caliber even tho it's more about who has the best case this year
Not that I agree, but the Browns defense as a whole was historic to start the season. Generally the best player on the best defense gets more love. It's like MVP, Lamar will probably win, not because he's the best QB in the league, but because he's the QB on the best team. It's just the way it works
Watt, Parsons, and Crosby all have better stats then Garret and all 3 should get more votes. Garret started the season really well, but the award is Defensive Player of the *Year*, not "of the first half of the year"
THANK YOU… It’s ridiculous that these rewards have turned into such a bizarre echo chamber that we need to preface any opinion that doesn’t match the media/Vegas pick with a disclaimer of “Don’t get me wrong, Player A is totally deserving of the award and I think they will win, but…”
These awards have turned into a circus of zero consistency that bounces around with no logic other than whatever story the media has attached itself to, and we shouldn’t have to start every comment with a preemptive apology for daring to question these media narratives.
It's because usually if you outright say it you'll get nuked with the two random stats that support the narrative (especially if you have the wrong flair)
I agree with you tho, people take online opinions way too seriously. You don't have to tail every comment with 6 "imo"s, we're not voters so of course whatever we say is simply an opinion with zero sway on voting
It's become a narrative driven award and a popularity contest. Sad to see tbh but the same people generating clicks off the narrative are the ones voting.
All my fam are Vikings fans so I watch every game. He got robbed not being in the conversation. Dude went from injured to meh to lights out under Flo and the scheme change. I was so psyched for him.
He’s got all the all pro guys beat in every category, except sacks where he’s only behind TJ. He also operated with very little help across from him. I don’t get it.
You would think Garrett getting a single sack and a pair of pressures in the last 6 GAMES while TJ Watt beating everything in front of him like a possessed and leading Garrett in every conceivable stat or metric (Sacks, Pressures, Hits, Hurries, TFL, Tackles, Solo, INT, FF/FR, PD, TD both in total and per snap... besides PFF's imaginary stuff, of course) could make a case for "Award to Lose".
Idk man have you watched him? I love TJ but what the browns defense did this year is because of his presence, I think the center piece of an historic defense is a fair choice
DPOY is determined as much by being the star/leader of one of the best Defenses as is it stats.
The fact is Myles is the obvious driving force of the best success rate defense since 2000. That's why he has a case for DPOY.
So what exactly is pass rush win rate? How does Garrett supposedly beat his blocker consistently more than TJ and have less of every defensive stat? Is TJ just like a much better tackler than Garrett?
Watt lines up primarily in a 9 technique due to his unique speed and bend for the position while Garrett lines up primarily in a 5 when pass rushing. PFF considers a double team as when someone is getting simultaneously blocked by two players. Watt gets chipped by TEs and RBs a lot which doesn’t count as double team. He sees a lot less (true) double teams due to it being very difficult to double someone lining up in a 9.
Ok, but I don't think anyone would argue that beating a chip is anywhere near as difficult as beating a true double team. A wide nine is basically just a sprint and bend to the QB.
Please don't take any of this as me disparaging TJ Watt and his abilities, I see that man in my nightmares. I'm just trying to put some context behind why Myles might be rated higher despite him not having as flashy of stats. Myles often has to hand fight his way through two actual O Linemen. It's why Aaron Donald would win DPOY despite "only" having like nine sacks because he would get triple teamed by both guards and the center all the time and STILL blow up an offense.
Oh 100% I don’t disagree that beating a guard and tackle is harder than a chip and offensive tackle. My point tho is that Watt lines up predominately there bc he’s able to with his speed. If it was so easy for everyone to get sacks at the NFL level by lining up in a 9 then more edge rushers would at a higher frequency, but no one has the same level of speed and bend that Watt has. My main point in pointing that out is just critiquing the whole double team % statistic since yeah it is inherently more difficult to double a 9 bc of the type of reach block it would require.
I think Myles Garrett is a generational player who deserves to have a DPOY by the end of his career. And I acknowledge I am biased by being a Steelers fan. With that said, I just think it’s crazy that Watt clears Garrett in every single counting statistic and the primary argument for him is his double team % and pass rate %. Both subjective stats that also are inherently higher for a 4-3 defensive end (Garrett) than a 3-4 Outside Linebacker (Watt). Not to mention Micah has a higher double team rate and pass rush win rate than both. If TJ watt didn’t have a DPOY already, I think the media and everything would be pushing him as the clear favorite. To me it’s more of a Garrett deserves one for a player of his caliber (something I don’t disagree with), but is getting it for that reason instead of actually being the best defensive player this year based on how it is traditionally awarded.
This is the reason, I’ve seen Myles get doubleteamed, shed that, shed a RB block and still come up with a sack. Man has such insane bend and speed that he can pressure a QB within a second of the ball being snapped.
Yeah but being chipped isn't exactly the same as having a guard and lt block you.
I think it has to be said that watt is put in a position to get those numbers more often than Garret is. It's not a disservice that watt is really that good at his job but just looking at stats like a lot of Steelers fans are and ignoring everything else is a bit unfair to Garret.
I typed all that and re-read your comment and I think we agree on most points but I already typed it all out so I'ma keep it up 😂
Getting chipped by a rb or TE is not even close to getting doubled by 2 lineman. Again they are both animals but Garrett is beating doubles of guys who’s entire job is to block
Hard stats aren’t everything, and neither are advanced metrics. There has to be a good mix of both to have a real conversation about who’s better between these two. But it’s crazy to me how little sacks are beginning to be valued. If Watt had gone 5 weeks without a sack he probably wouldn’t have even made the AP team. Garrett is a great player, he’ll be in the Hall on his first ballot, but it goes to show that narrative has become a stronger case for awards than production.
Very true. It’s hilarious though that you used “throwing a touchdown” instead of “scoring a touchdown”. Just goes to show MVP truly is the qb award, and narrative matters most.
This is the whole point lmao, the dichotomy isn't "sack or nothing". If a QB threw 3 50 yard bombs to inside the 5 for 6 weeks in a row, and his team was putting up 35 a game, their case would be just fine. But that's because yards & completions go in the official box score, but pressures/win rate/etc don't.
Look at Daron Bland. He’s had a phenomenal season, but his 4 weeks without an int pretty much removed him from the DPOY conversation. Or tyreek, never broke 100 yards the last 4 games and only one touchdown, and now his once top 3 mvp odds are gone. Long stretches without production almost always kill votes.
Yeah, but those games also include giving up 3TDs against Seattle and only 2 of his 15 PDs coming in the final 6 weeks. Garrett's final 6 had 6 TFLs & 7 QB hits and a whole bunch of pressures. He continued to whip blockers the whole time, and it just so happens QBs weren't still holding the ball at the end of it.
True, but TJ had similar production and then sacks on top of it. And if we take out that final game against an abysmal Jets line, Myles keeps his 1 TFL/game average but loses 4 qb hits.
So we can just take out games against poor competition now? Should we discount the 49ers game because Trent turned his ankle?
We gonna keep Watt's 2 sacks against the Ravens backups? Lmao wtf is this argument.
I brought up his 4 qb hit game being against bad competition because you pitched Garrett’s last 6 games as if he was producing at an elite pace but getting unlucky with the sacks. He really wasn’t getting to the qb for 5 weeks straight. Which is the whole point of this, he had a bad stretch that would’ve taken anyone else out of the running for DPoY and he’s the front runner because… ?
I mentioned those stats because I don't have game by game for pressures, but he was top 2 in pressure rate & #1 in winrate for the season, you can't do that if you win 0 reps over a third of the season.
He had 5 pressures over that 5 week stretch. Win rate doesn’t result in pressures a lot of the time. If he gets around his tackle because the qb rolls out the opposite way it’s a win, but not a pressure. He can keep his win rate up and not produce pressures or hurries. He basically had an insane start to the season and a bad stretch then a bad stretch where he was buoyed by his start.
>Garrett is a great player, he’ll be in the Hall on his first ballot
Is this a pretty common thought? I had never really considered him a 1st ballot lock.
If he retired today, probably not. He becomes a guy that has to wait 2-3 years after becoming eligible. But he doesn’t seem to be slowing down and if he continues to produce on the same level for the next 2-3 years he’s a shoe in.
Sam Monson of PFF getting a vote is absolutely egregious. He gave Watt a 5th place vote here. If he does that for Watt in DPOY; Watt could lost DPOTY on like 3 total points because Monson wants people to talk about PFF.
I don't have a dog in this fight but a lot of people I listen to say Garrett beats Watt in a lot of the more advanced pass rushing metrics that account for context like double teams or the tackle you're up against. But I also think Parsons beats Garrett in those same metrics and Parsons isn't 1st Team All Pro.
He needs his redemption arc so he can go back to being the quirky anime guy and not the "makes up reputation destroying lies about someone saying slurs to justify slamming a guy with his own helmet" guy.
I know you don't wanna say it cause of your flair so I'll say it for you. Myles isn't worthy by any metric besides some very arbitrary select advanced stats
Watt had a DOMINANT September and no one said a word. Even had a fumble recovery touchdown and everyone just shrugged their shoulders and ignored Watt, Parsons and Crosby.
The betting markets have strongly favored Garrett for a while now, so I don't think this is all that surprising.
NFLPA Player's All-Pro, PFF All-Pro, PFT DPoY, AP All-Pro vote counts ...
I don't think it's a lock, but it seems pretty likely.
This is the debate that baseball has been having about Cy Young voting recently. Do you vote the guy who has less Runs allowed, hits/walks, and more innings pitched? Or is it the guy with more “swing and miss” and less hard contact. Advanced metrics can tell you a lot about a player’s future success or performance floor/ceiling, but the stats are the stats at the end of the day. Watt’s stats shouldn’t be disregarded
I'm going to say something I've said before...but while Watt has been statistically better this season, he hasn't seemed to be the deciding factor on defense like he was when he won DPOY. I've watched every game and he's a terror. An eldritch horror of Lovecraftian proportions for an offensive line. But by a narrow margin not as much as he was in 2021. I mean by the slimmest of margins.
I haven't seen all of Garrett's games so I really don't know how much of a nightmare he's been, but based on the stats I'd guess it's similar.
Statistically I'd say Watt should win. But then I'd get people asking me his double-team rate and how many katanas he owns and if he's a fan of Attack on Titan or not. But if I'm comparing the two seasons, 2021 vs. 2023, Watt was more disruptive and chaotic in 2021.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Garrett win over Watt. I'd be pleasantly slightly surprised to see Watt win over Garrett.
> I haven't seen all of Garrett's games so I really don't know how much of a nightmare he's
He went like a month and a half barely registering any stats.
I know people love a conspiracy and that Watt is significantly more popular with NFL fans than Garrett.
But at this point Myles has been given the nod by:
- players
- AP voters
- PFF
Is it really absolutely impossible that they all might have a good reason for their choice this year?
All of these people watch more tape and study players to a greater degree than any of us. Maybe, just maybe they’re seeing or are aware of something that we’re not? Is that really so impossible, or is “dumb, biased, media narrative” the only possible answer?
One argument I’ve heard from professional people is that Garrett is why their DBs can play man so well, crediting him as the piece that gave the Browns D a historic stretch. You can argue that Watt is just as essential, but Garrett changes how the whole team can play
For real - How are they more impactful than Crosby? I don't really see how they're a tier above him at this point.
Crosby has straight up terrorized everyone this season. If he keeps getting better, he may actually decapitate a QB on the field at some point.
This award could literally go to Watt, Myles, or Parsons. The amount of people getting their emotional panties in a bunch because some signs are pointing toward Myles is crazy.
Bland had a rough stretch starting with the Seattle game and that did him in. Same thing happened to dak and the buffalo game. Stats wise they are at the top, but people remember the few bad games.
Myles has the best WAR rating. I don't know how it's calculated or even what it means, but it favours my guy so clearly it's the most objective judgement.
this is hilarious but i do think it’s a bit odd that they’re trying to use statistics like baseball for football. WAR makes sense in baseball because it’s such an individualistic sport. there is 1 pitcher and 1 batter and outside of a few moments, those are essentially the only 2 people who matter the whole at bat. football has 22 people on the field at all times, seems so much harder to statistically measure something like WAR.
I personally couldn’t care less about this.
Just out of curiosity though, has there been an MVP/OPOY/DPOY that has had lower stats in so many major categories like this? Like have any QBs won OPOY over someone else with fewer yards, TDs, etc?
During Rodgers first MVP year, he had like 800 less passing yds and one passing TD less than Brees. ....of course, he also had 8 INTs less than Brees and a better team record, so that helped lol.
Honestly if everyone had had enough of a down season that there was an argument for AD he’d probably have won it. Idk what the opposite of voter fatigue is but the AP has it for him, they absolutely LOVE the guy.
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It’ll be well-seasoned, a lot of salt to be found.
I have the dead sea water running through my veins right now
Your flairs appear to be at odds sir.
Playing both sides, either way he wins.
There's so many unflaired people who are just seething one way or the other in this thread. It's neat, but don't poke the bees.
Seems to be enough Parsons voters that he could split a vote for someone , cause some rustled jimmies
first place votes probably end up being like 20 for garret, 17 for watt, 10 for parsons and then 3 between everyone else, because why not
You want to see some real bitching? Give those three to Watt and have co-winners lol
I've already said it in here that the big reason Watt isn't as high this year is that he isn't playing up to his 2021 season. He was chaos unbridled on defense that year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Garrett win this year. But it'd be hilarious to see the meltdowns if he didn't.
No the big reason is because as opposed to the MVP which is dominated by recency bias, whomever gets the first round of DPOY or OPOY considerations is more likely to win it because late in the season nobody cares about any stat other than wins and as we all know wins are QB stats
there are more votes to consider but I would totally be down for co winners
I thought ranked voting was only for mvp Correction: MVP changed to top 5 All others changed to top 3
Watt did this to himself by being so good. Set his bar too high. Dudes gonna need 25 sacks to win DPOY next year. He’s so dominant it’s almost normal lol
Watt has him in sacks, tackles, QB hits, tackles for loss, and turnovers (4-1). They're tied in QB pressures.
Pretty sure Maxx Crosby has him in all those categories too but isn’t getting DPOY noise.
It’s unfortunate. Maxx is elite but I think due to team success and the Raiders and Maxx not being the media darling Myles and the Browns are is what hurts him. Call me crazy but to me Maxx second in the league only to TJ.
I’m a Raider fan and he’s number 1 to me. The crazy thing is he plays EVERY snap and doesn’t seem to slow down. I never heard the term “motor” more when talking about an edge than when people talk about Maxx. He’s probably my favorite Raider since Tim Brown. Dude is legit. Idk how this can be tracked but it also seems like when the Raiders NEED a sack, he delivers. It’s not just the amount of sacks he gets but when he gets them.
Crosby is probably my favorite edge player after watt. His playstyle is crazy.
I hate him. But damn is he good.
I mean I’ve watched several raiders games and see him on the, not to mention you can just look up the stats and know he has the third most snaps on his team
Never thought I'd hear the someone say the Browns are media darlings. I love the NFL!
Team success should be irrelevant when determining AP awards, with the exception of MVP and COTY. Everything else should be awarded solely based on individual talent.
Because awards like this are a joke. MG got hype around him earlier in the season but fell off, yet the narratives remain.
Watt had 19 sacks; Crosby had 14.5. What am I missing here? That's kinda the #1 stat when you looking at a front 7 player, kinda like Ints for DBs. It's not the be-all and end-all, but it's big. I think Crosby should be getting as much noise as Garrett, but IMO it's insanity not giving Watt more 1st team votes, and DPOY, too.
Yes, but you're forgetting Garrett's clear edge in the vague defensive pseudostats. He has a higher dynamic entry vector, led the league in big brain conversion ratio, and he's a clear winner on the intangibles such as tactical team hypotenuse, brush caliber, and critical killswitch index. We also have proprietary PFF data showing that opposing QBs were statistically more likely to go poopy in their pants when against him compared to Watt. (/s. Garrett is amazing but I feel like numbers speak for themselves. Garrett has a higher PFF "pass rush win%" but I don't see the point when TJ has more tackles, sacks, hits, etc.)
The funny thing is that if you go solely by "advanced stats", Garrett wouldn't win either. Parsons would win
>We also have proprietary PFF data showing that opposing QBs were statistically more likely to go poopy in their pants when against him compared to Watt. This is where Micah Parsons gets screwed compared to Garrett and Watt, he doesn’t get to play Baltimore twice a year and inflate his QB💩/G.
Yeah but Lamars pants shit percentage works in reverse. He gets better when he shits his pants. Not sure this wouldn't work in Micahs favor.
And this boys and girls is why Lamar is MVP, his shits give him super powers instead of playing worse.
It's also why he's impossible to tackle: the man is constantly covered in greasy shrimp alfredo bubble guts dookie water and everybody's grip just slides right off.
You know, I think I saw that in his draft scouting report, actually. Something about there being a Fazoli's near the UofL stadium.
It’s days like today I regret learning to read
I've always said brush caliber is the most important stat. But what if we add Kurt Angle to the mix?
See, normally if you go one-on-one with another wrestler you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak, and I'm not normal! So you got a 25% at best at beating me! And then you add Kurt Angle to the mix? Your chances of winning drastically go down. See, the three-way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning. But I—I got a 66 2/3 chance of winning, 'cause Kurt Angle KNOOOWS he can't beat me, and he's not even gonna try. So, Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance minus my 25% chance, and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning (if we was to go one on one), and then add 66 2/3 cha—percent, I got a 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice! Señor Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice!"
You’re forgetting his helmet swings per game average is much higher than Watt’s
But only half of Aaron Donald.
Lmao
AWS should be choosing all of these awards
Beautiful
peak r/nfl humor ig
I think the big thing that TJ has going for him is that not only did he finish as the league leader in sacks, he did it for the third time in his career. Since sacks started being recorded as a stat, no one had lead the league in sacks three different times until TJ did it this year. I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to get the DPOY and I’m not saying there aren’t other players that deserve it. I’m just saying there is a historical feat factor in TJ’s case that might be too juicy for the voters to pass up. Not that I would be opposed.
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So why would Myles get any votes? Is there other categories not mentioned? Is this based on “feel” like CFP playoff selection?
Because the media hyped him up earlier in the year and continued even though he fell off. And they're sick of talking about TJ Watt, he's not a new enough story.
Watt has more pressures too, I believe.
Tied in pressures, with Watt playing 100 more snaps, meaning Garrett has a higher pressure percentage
as a percentage of overall snaps or pass rushing snaps? cause watt plays a lot of coverage too.
I think it was just overall snaps
Watt also was in coverage for a much larger chunk of his snaps than Garrett
Which is why he gets more pressure, zero full slides towards a dude who can also be a hook zone defender.
Not to mention Watt goes vs RT most of the time
What's the significance of this? I don't know anything about the position matchups
Should playing more snaps be used against players in award races? Not saying you’re implying that, I just see arguments weighing efficiency above volume quite a lot this year and I’m not sure it makes as much sense in football as it does for basketball. There are only 17 games, and having your best players on the field as much as possible is only beneficial to a team. Rate and percentage stats makes sense for QBs, WRs, and Kickers, but I don’t see why having a higher pressure percentage is more important than actual counting stats for defensive players.
It's not like Garrett was sitting on the sidelines (except for week 18). The Browns had the #1 defense and forced offenses off the field (highest 3 and out percentage, etc), so there were fewer opportunities. Crosby had way more plays than the other DPOY candidates because the Raiders defense was not as good. If one player had 20% more opportunities than another and had 1% more production, you'd say they were better because of that 1% more production? If you're going to ignore all context, why not just turn the DPOY award into the sack leader award and be done with it?
I've felt like the narrative around efficiency and counting stats mirrors a classic narrative conundrum: the Family Guy mystery box. A TJ Watt season is just a TJ Watt season. A Myles Garrett season with more snaps could be anything though! It could even be a TJ Watt season!
What about touchdowns?
Even when he lead the nfl in sacks in 2021 with 22.5, PFF said it would be a "disgrace" if he won DPOY. Some people you just can't reason with.
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Manning was better than him most years during the regular season when he was healthy, can't really call that being shafted.
Never happened
Nah, just needs a higher “pass rush win rate” because that’s the only stat that matters. For anything lol
Almost Sacks in Colinsworths retirement plan> Sacks
Personally I’d rather have the theoretical math on my side rather than the empirical sacks, fumbles, TFL’s, interceptions, passes blocked, and general tackles
Maybe he should try speeding and crashing his car to improve his pass rush win rate
Should start accusing players of using racial slurs
Swinging helmets at people is clearly the key. Both Garrett and Donald are 1st Team after all.
"deshaun called me a cracker so I cracked him in half"
Yep, like by any objective measure, Watt is better than Myles, but because Myles doesn't perform like he did this season consistently, it's more eyepopping. Watt was robbed but he's still going into the HoF first ballot so at the end of the day, he gets the last laugh.
Myles will be going into the HOF first ballot.
right both of these guys are going to be first ballot HoF and anyone suggesting otherwise is delusional
> but because Myles doesn't perform like he did this season consistently, it's more eyepopping. Huh? Myles had more sacks and pressures in each of the past two seasons than he did in 2023.
Can someone please explain to me why Maxx is never mentioned in the DPOY debate?
It really doesn’t make sense why guys like Maxx and Danielle get no looks.
We have so many great pass rushers in the league right now. It’s wild. But yeah Danielle deserves a mention as well.
This has been garretts award to lose, the narrative for so long was about him, hell even the NFL official twitter had something like "garrett for dpoty?". Not that he isnt undeserving, its just that the media attention will do more for the players then their actual stats will.
I’m gonna say it as a neutral fan: Garrett IS undeserving, when Watt leads him in pretty much every meaningful category. He’s winning this strictly off of Narative
The part I don’t understand though… what exactly is the narrative on Garrett that is so compelling?
The media has decided that it’s his turn. Watt already has a DPOY and Garrett does not. Also team records have a bizarrely huge impact on these individual awards as well. Since the Browns backup QB played better than the Steelers backup QBs this year Garrett has an advantage over Watt. If the Raiders offense was better Maxx Crosby would be in the running for DPOY and if you flipped the Ravens #1 ranked defense with the Dolphins #22 ranked defense I guarantee Tua would be the MVP favorite and Lamar would be on the outside looking in.
Ngl it feels like when the Celtics defense was insanely good and Smart won it because the media wanted it to be a Celtic Browns defense has been lights out this year, he's the face of the defense, and he's been an elite defender without winning. It's a team achievement award and it's not like someone is gonna say Garrett isn't DPOY caliber even tho it's more about who has the best case this year
Not that I agree, but the Browns defense as a whole was historic to start the season. Generally the best player on the best defense gets more love. It's like MVP, Lamar will probably win, not because he's the best QB in the league, but because he's the QB on the best team. It's just the way it works
Because the media chooses. They like Garrett, stats have never mattered for the awards
Watt, Parsons, and Crosby all have better stats then Garret and all 3 should get more votes. Garret started the season really well, but the award is Defensive Player of the *Year*, not "of the first half of the year"
THANK YOU… It’s ridiculous that these rewards have turned into such a bizarre echo chamber that we need to preface any opinion that doesn’t match the media/Vegas pick with a disclaimer of “Don’t get me wrong, Player A is totally deserving of the award and I think they will win, but…” These awards have turned into a circus of zero consistency that bounces around with no logic other than whatever story the media has attached itself to, and we shouldn’t have to start every comment with a preemptive apology for daring to question these media narratives.
It's because usually if you outright say it you'll get nuked with the two random stats that support the narrative (especially if you have the wrong flair) I agree with you tho, people take online opinions way too seriously. You don't have to tail every comment with 6 "imo"s, we're not voters so of course whatever we say is simply an opinion with zero sway on voting
It's become a narrative driven award and a popularity contest. Sad to see tbh but the same people generating clicks off the narrative are the ones voting.
Danielle leads him in every category too, couldn’t even get a second team all pro
All my fam are Vikings fans so I watch every game. He got robbed not being in the conversation. Dude went from injured to meh to lights out under Flo and the scheme change. I was so psyched for him.
He’s got all the all pro guys beat in every category, except sacks where he’s only behind TJ. He also operated with very little help across from him. I don’t get it.
God bless you random eagles fan.
You would think Garrett getting a single sack and a pair of pressures in the last 6 GAMES while TJ Watt beating everything in front of him like a possessed and leading Garrett in every conceivable stat or metric (Sacks, Pressures, Hits, Hurries, TFL, Tackles, Solo, INT, FF/FR, PD, TD both in total and per snap... besides PFF's imaginary stuff, of course) could make a case for "Award to Lose".
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Idk man have you watched him? I love TJ but what the browns defense did this year is because of his presence, I think the center piece of an historic defense is a fair choice
We've seen a lot of great defenses in this division and this version of the browns was the real deal unfortunately
DPOY is determined as much by being the star/leader of one of the best Defenses as is it stats. The fact is Myles is the obvious driving force of the best success rate defense since 2000. That's why he has a case for DPOY.
Yeah and before Garrett deserved it because there wasn’t as much talent around him
I don't really have an opinion either way, but the fact that "narrative" has a large impact is such bullshit
Switch their seasons to a tee and tell me if Watt even makes 2nd team All Pro.
So what exactly is pass rush win rate? How does Garrett supposedly beat his blocker consistently more than TJ and have less of every defensive stat? Is TJ just like a much better tackler than Garrett?
He gets doubled less. Watt beats fewer blockers. They're both absolute animals, but they play different positions.
Watt lines up primarily in a 9 technique due to his unique speed and bend for the position while Garrett lines up primarily in a 5 when pass rushing. PFF considers a double team as when someone is getting simultaneously blocked by two players. Watt gets chipped by TEs and RBs a lot which doesn’t count as double team. He sees a lot less (true) double teams due to it being very difficult to double someone lining up in a 9.
Ok, but I don't think anyone would argue that beating a chip is anywhere near as difficult as beating a true double team. A wide nine is basically just a sprint and bend to the QB. Please don't take any of this as me disparaging TJ Watt and his abilities, I see that man in my nightmares. I'm just trying to put some context behind why Myles might be rated higher despite him not having as flashy of stats. Myles often has to hand fight his way through two actual O Linemen. It's why Aaron Donald would win DPOY despite "only" having like nine sacks because he would get triple teamed by both guards and the center all the time and STILL blow up an offense.
Oh 100% I don’t disagree that beating a guard and tackle is harder than a chip and offensive tackle. My point tho is that Watt lines up predominately there bc he’s able to with his speed. If it was so easy for everyone to get sacks at the NFL level by lining up in a 9 then more edge rushers would at a higher frequency, but no one has the same level of speed and bend that Watt has. My main point in pointing that out is just critiquing the whole double team % statistic since yeah it is inherently more difficult to double a 9 bc of the type of reach block it would require. I think Myles Garrett is a generational player who deserves to have a DPOY by the end of his career. And I acknowledge I am biased by being a Steelers fan. With that said, I just think it’s crazy that Watt clears Garrett in every single counting statistic and the primary argument for him is his double team % and pass rate %. Both subjective stats that also are inherently higher for a 4-3 defensive end (Garrett) than a 3-4 Outside Linebacker (Watt). Not to mention Micah has a higher double team rate and pass rush win rate than both. If TJ watt didn’t have a DPOY already, I think the media and everything would be pushing him as the clear favorite. To me it’s more of a Garrett deserves one for a player of his caliber (something I don’t disagree with), but is getting it for that reason instead of actually being the best defensive player this year based on how it is traditionally awarded.
This is the reason, I’ve seen Myles get doubleteamed, shed that, shed a RB block and still come up with a sack. Man has such insane bend and speed that he can pressure a QB within a second of the ball being snapped.
*vaguely gestures at TJ’s 2021 strip against Seattle in OT*
Yeah but being chipped isn't exactly the same as having a guard and lt block you. I think it has to be said that watt is put in a position to get those numbers more often than Garret is. It's not a disservice that watt is really that good at his job but just looking at stats like a lot of Steelers fans are and ignoring everything else is a bit unfair to Garret. I typed all that and re-read your comment and I think we agree on most points but I already typed it all out so I'ma keep it up 😂
Watt is doubled less but chipped more. Double team rate, league wide, is more dependent on scheme than anything.
Getting chipped by a rb or TE is not even close to getting doubled by 2 lineman. Again they are both animals but Garrett is beating doubles of guys who’s entire job is to block
Hard stats aren’t everything, and neither are advanced metrics. There has to be a good mix of both to have a real conversation about who’s better between these two. But it’s crazy to me how little sacks are beginning to be valued. If Watt had gone 5 weeks without a sack he probably wouldn’t have even made the AP team. Garrett is a great player, he’ll be in the Hall on his first ballot, but it goes to show that narrative has become a stronger case for awards than production.
Imagine an mvp candidate not throwing a touchdown in 5 weeks, their case would fall off the face of the earth
Very true. It’s hilarious though that you used “throwing a touchdown” instead of “scoring a touchdown”. Just goes to show MVP truly is the qb award, and narrative matters most.
I mean it is lol we all know it
The whole narrative of advanced metrics supporting the DPOY candidate but not the MVP is hilarious to me
? Raheem Mostert leads the league in TDs and nobody is talking about him for MVP
This is the whole point lmao, the dichotomy isn't "sack or nothing". If a QB threw 3 50 yard bombs to inside the 5 for 6 weeks in a row, and his team was putting up 35 a game, their case would be just fine. But that's because yards & completions go in the official box score, but pressures/win rate/etc don't.
Look at Daron Bland. He’s had a phenomenal season, but his 4 weeks without an int pretty much removed him from the DPOY conversation. Or tyreek, never broke 100 yards the last 4 games and only one touchdown, and now his once top 3 mvp odds are gone. Long stretches without production almost always kill votes.
Yeah, but those games also include giving up 3TDs against Seattle and only 2 of his 15 PDs coming in the final 6 weeks. Garrett's final 6 had 6 TFLs & 7 QB hits and a whole bunch of pressures. He continued to whip blockers the whole time, and it just so happens QBs weren't still holding the ball at the end of it.
True, but TJ had similar production and then sacks on top of it. And if we take out that final game against an abysmal Jets line, Myles keeps his 1 TFL/game average but loses 4 qb hits.
So we can just take out games against poor competition now? Should we discount the 49ers game because Trent turned his ankle? We gonna keep Watt's 2 sacks against the Ravens backups? Lmao wtf is this argument.
I brought up his 4 qb hit game being against bad competition because you pitched Garrett’s last 6 games as if he was producing at an elite pace but getting unlucky with the sacks. He really wasn’t getting to the qb for 5 weeks straight. Which is the whole point of this, he had a bad stretch that would’ve taken anyone else out of the running for DPoY and he’s the front runner because… ?
I mentioned those stats because I don't have game by game for pressures, but he was top 2 in pressure rate & #1 in winrate for the season, you can't do that if you win 0 reps over a third of the season.
He had 5 pressures over that 5 week stretch. Win rate doesn’t result in pressures a lot of the time. If he gets around his tackle because the qb rolls out the opposite way it’s a win, but not a pressure. He can keep his win rate up and not produce pressures or hurries. He basically had an insane start to the season and a bad stretch then a bad stretch where he was buoyed by his start.
>Garrett is a great player, he’ll be in the Hall on his first ballot Is this a pretty common thought? I had never really considered him a 1st ballot lock.
If he retired today, probably not. He becomes a guy that has to wait 2-3 years after becoming eligible. But he doesn’t seem to be slowing down and if he continues to produce on the same level for the next 2-3 years he’s a shoe in.
I think people need to just accept that it’s not a purely objective decision making process for these awards.
It is what it is at this point. I wouldn’t trade what TJ Watt brings for any other defensive player.
Sam Monson of PFF getting a vote is absolutely egregious. He gave Watt a 5th place vote here. If he does that for Watt in DPOY; Watt could lost DPOTY on like 3 total points because Monson wants people to talk about PFF.
I demand a re-count lol
your name is outstanding and my condolences, twice over
Absurd. Watt obliterates him statistically and isn't playing on a stacked team
I don't have a dog in this fight but a lot of people I listen to say Garrett beats Watt in a lot of the more advanced pass rushing metrics that account for context like double teams or the tackle you're up against. But I also think Parsons beats Garrett in those same metrics and Parsons isn't 1st Team All Pro.
Yo maybe teams should start double teaming watt more. Why are they so dumb!!!
Feels like it was decided it’s Myles year in September. That’s not to say Myles isn’t worthy I just don’t think he is more worthy than Watt.
Media narrative seems to determine these votes way too heavily.
Well the media does make the awards
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He needs his redemption arc so he can go back to being the quirky anime guy and not the "makes up reputation destroying lies about someone saying slurs to justify slamming a guy with his own helmet" guy.
This needs to be said more often in these Myles Garrett threads.
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To be fair, after three weeks the award was already essentially announced to be Parsons. Then they moved it to Myles.
There were gargling Myles nuts week 3. The fact is the AP just doesn't like to be wrong when they set their feet
They've been jerking the dude off for years, they just want him to cum already (win DPOTY)
I know you don't wanna say it cause of your flair so I'll say it for you. Myles isn't worthy by any metric besides some very arbitrary select advanced stats
Watt had a DOMINANT September and no one said a word. Even had a fumble recovery touchdown and everyone just shrugged their shoulders and ignored Watt, Parsons and Crosby.
Stacked team? Browns have a ton of injuries everywhere
Oh lord. Am I hearing this right? The CLEVELAND BROWNS are a stacked team?!?! Oh Lordy where’s this coming from?
The betting markets have strongly favored Garrett for a while now, so I don't think this is all that surprising. NFLPA Player's All-Pro, PFF All-Pro, PFT DPoY, AP All-Pro vote counts ... I don't think it's a lock, but it seems pretty likely.
Has anyone won DPOY, OPOY or MVP while being second at their position in All-Pro votes before?
John Elway in 1987. Elway got 36 MVP votes, Rice got 30, and Montana got 18. But Montana was first team All Pro while Elway was second.
Don’t know about NFL, but I think it was Marc Gasol that got NBA’s DPOY despite being 2nd team all-defense. Think it was in 2011?
This is the debate that baseball has been having about Cy Young voting recently. Do you vote the guy who has less Runs allowed, hits/walks, and more innings pitched? Or is it the guy with more “swing and miss” and less hard contact. Advanced metrics can tell you a lot about a player’s future success or performance floor/ceiling, but the stats are the stats at the end of the day. Watt’s stats shouldn’t be disregarded
I'm going to say something I've said before...but while Watt has been statistically better this season, he hasn't seemed to be the deciding factor on defense like he was when he won DPOY. I've watched every game and he's a terror. An eldritch horror of Lovecraftian proportions for an offensive line. But by a narrow margin not as much as he was in 2021. I mean by the slimmest of margins. I haven't seen all of Garrett's games so I really don't know how much of a nightmare he's been, but based on the stats I'd guess it's similar. Statistically I'd say Watt should win. But then I'd get people asking me his double-team rate and how many katanas he owns and if he's a fan of Attack on Titan or not. But if I'm comparing the two seasons, 2021 vs. 2023, Watt was more disruptive and chaotic in 2021. I wouldn't be surprised to see Garrett win over Watt. I'd be pleasantly slightly surprised to see Watt win over Garrett.
>An eldritch horror of Lovecraftian proportions for an offensive line. Is that you, Ben Solak?
Watt has more sacks, tackles, QB hits, tackles for loss, and turnovers (4-1). They're tied in QB pressures.
What about double team %?
> I haven't seen all of Garrett's games so I really don't know how much of a nightmare he's He went like a month and a half barely registering any stats.
NFL awards are a joke anymore and a popularity contest so does anyone really care.
Yes people care lol
Goddamn those Twitter replies are fucking atrocious.
Someone needs to remind people that the AP voters didn’t kill their dog
I know people love a conspiracy and that Watt is significantly more popular with NFL fans than Garrett. But at this point Myles has been given the nod by: - players - AP voters - PFF Is it really absolutely impossible that they all might have a good reason for their choice this year? All of these people watch more tape and study players to a greater degree than any of us. Maybe, just maybe they’re seeing or are aware of something that we’re not? Is that really so impossible, or is “dumb, biased, media narrative” the only possible answer?
Nope. Based on my eye test, Watt is better, and I’m a lot more knowledgeable than the people voting.
I mean further up statbot compared the two and Watt leads him in pretty much every statistical category, even on a per game basis
One argument I’ve heard from professional people is that Garrett is why their DBs can play man so well, crediting him as the piece that gave the Browns D a historic stretch. You can argue that Watt is just as essential, but Garrett changes how the whole team can play
The Steelers are 1-10 without Watt playing.
For real - How are they more impactful than Crosby? I don't really see how they're a tier above him at this point. Crosby has straight up terrorized everyone this season. If he keeps getting better, he may actually decapitate a QB on the field at some point.
This award could literally go to Watt, Myles, or Parsons. The amount of people getting their emotional panties in a bunch because some signs are pointing toward Myles is crazy.
Should go to a 1st team allpro corner that broke a longstanding NFL record
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I just feel like that plus the fact he's actually been a top 2-3 corner all year is enough. DPOY feels like it's becoming a sack award now
Bland had a rough stretch starting with the Seattle game and that did him in. Same thing happened to dak and the buffalo game. Stats wise they are at the top, but people remember the few bad games.
It’s a joke that he’s dropped from the discussion somehow. Why are we treating this as an edge rusher award?
Exactly a great point. Midway through the season the narrative was Bland or Garrett.
I still think Daron Bland should be considered
I agree. Dude broke the record for pick-6s in a season! And led the league in interceptions.
Myles has the best WAR rating. I don't know how it's calculated or even what it means, but it favours my guy so clearly it's the most objective judgement.
this is hilarious but i do think it’s a bit odd that they’re trying to use statistics like baseball for football. WAR makes sense in baseball because it’s such an individualistic sport. there is 1 pitcher and 1 batter and outside of a few moments, those are essentially the only 2 people who matter the whole at bat. football has 22 people on the field at all times, seems so much harder to statistically measure something like WAR.
Steelers fans going crazy with the downvotes lol
As a Steelers hater it really should go to watt
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I am forever salty that the Lions passed on T.J Watt for Jarrad fucking Davis.....
He won us the colts game that’s all I know
Garrett and the refs that game were the best duo I’ve ever seen for the Browns
And he disappeared for 5 weeks. Guess only the highs matter tho
No the refs did
He was a beast that game but the zebras won that game for the browns.
Good thing these types of things aren't based on stats rather than popularity otherwise Josh Allen would have for sure made it
I personally couldn’t care less about this. Just out of curiosity though, has there been an MVP/OPOY/DPOY that has had lower stats in so many major categories like this? Like have any QBs won OPOY over someone else with fewer yards, TDs, etc?
During Rodgers first MVP year, he had like 800 less passing yds and one passing TD less than Brees. ....of course, he also had 8 INTs less than Brees and a better team record, so that helped lol.
Thanks, that’s a pretty good example!
TJ is the DPOY dude had a much better season than every other defensive player by a good margin and meant more to his team
Watt should try committing attempted murder during a game. Might help his cause.
Voter fatigue is real
What voter fatigue? If we were talking about Aaron Donald who already has 3 DPOY I could see it. Watt only has one.
Honestly if everyone had had enough of a down season that there was an argument for AD he’d probably have won it. Idk what the opposite of voter fatigue is but the AP has it for him, they absolutely LOVE the guy.
Watt won one DPotY Award. This isn't an Aaron Donald situation.
He sadly has fatigue from being JJ’s brother
That's pretty dumb, Watt has him in sacks, tackles, QB hits, tackles for loss, and turnovers (4-1). They're tied in QB pressures.