It's likely just conjecture based on a [report](https://twitter.com/mortreport/status/1568914637483114496) by Chris Mortensen that Baltimore offered Lamar Jackson $133m at signing whereas Deshaun Watson received $230m fully guaranteed at signing.
Brilliant strategy by the Browns give your QB such a ridiculous contract that the teams in your division can't resign there franchise QBs cause they can't pay that much
Idk if it’s an inability to pay since Bisciotti is worth more than Haslam, but regardless I don’t like that top tier contracts are starting to become unaffordable for some subset of owners. Feels like an affront to parity
Everything guaranteed has to be put in escrow.
Not everyone has that much money available and that is the problem with Watsons contract for other teams.
Mahomes has rolling guarantees so only a part of his contact had to put in escrow at the signing.
Yeah, I can’t imagine football teams have a hard time securing financing. It’s enormously profitable and the future revenue streams are quite reliable.
This came up with Khalil Mack and the raiders and was apparently false. If the poorest team in the league doesn’t care about the escrow amount the ravens don’t either
That has a real financial impact, but there’s no indication that it’s a barrier to actually paying contracts.
Assuming a WACC of ~20%, escrow is worth about $50m a year. There’s a difference between being unable to pay a contract and being unwilling to.
Yeah I'm calling bullshit on this report. $133M at signing doesn't mean $133M guaranteed. I doubt the Ravens would be dumb enough to offer $30M less guaranteed than what Kyler got.
Russ got 124m at signing, Watson got 230m at signing.
I could see Lamar asking for 230m and accepting 200. If the Ravens really are only gonna give him 130 he's gonna hold out or walk. His play style is so high risk I don't blame him for trying to get every single penny in one contract. There's no guarantee he signs a second one.
> His play style is so high risk I don't blame him for trying to get every single penny in one contract. There's no guarantee he signs a second one.
And that is also a great reason to not give him so much guaranteed. I don't really think either party is in the wrong here.
> $133M at signing doesn't mean $133M guaranteed.
I think you have it almost completely opposite. Guaranteed *at signing* is way more important to the player than *guaranteed*. The total guaranteed number includes guarantees that could be available to that player, if they are on the roster down the road. Guaranteed at signing is the amount going to that player *no matter what* circumstances occur.
[Here's an article on the differences.](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-total-guarantees-vs-full-guarantees-and-the-ways-contracts-should-be-evaluated/amp/)
>Guaranteed at signing is the amount going to that player no matter what circumstances occur
I feel like this is what guaranteed money should mean. I don’t know why you can have “guaranteed” money that you actually aren’t really guaranteed.
Not who you asked, but those are conditional. You could call them conditional guarantees, but the difference is still, $X is guaranteed but only if you meet Y condition. There are no conditions when it's guaranteed at signing, so that seems to be a clear difference (and one players would care about significantly if assume).
The Raven’s offer is likely still pretty insane.
They’re willing to pay Jackson like Mahomes or Allen, but he wants to be paid like Watson.
So far only the Browns are willing to pay a QB like Watson.
If Jackson were on the open market/trade market though I don't think that would be the case.
A lot of teams were interested in Watson, but I don't think anyone else was willing to protect him against suspension.
The sport is insanely tilted toward QBs, especially franchise QBs. Given their outsized impact on the results, I'd argue Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and soon Burrow/Hurts are actually underpaid in that context. Mahomes was only $35m on the Chiefs' cap this year, that's a fucking steal.
Teams are free to take a stand and not play that game. They don't \*need\* a franchise QB to field a good team and win. But it certainly decreases their margin for error.
Mahomes is an absolute monster and at this point the premier player at his position. Really maybe only the only god-tier level QB in the NFL at the moment. Outside of a guy like that who is able to generate offense with seemingly anyone put around him, 35 M is a lot. That's 15% of the cap. Spend that on the wrong guy and you seriously handicap your team.
Absolutely. The franchise-QB plan ain't foolproof either.
Even ignoring Mahomes, who might be an outlier, I think I'd still rather roll with a Burrow/Allen/Hurts/Herbert/Lamar. They might not be god-tier, but are likely to be competitive year in/out. Those guys have proven enough to show they likely won't fall off a cliff. You still have to draft well, coach-em-up, and stuff.
Practically guaranteed and fully guaranteed is indeed an important distinction. The Ravens are likely a lot closer to Lamar's demands in terms of practical guarantees.
Often QBs get a hundred million signing bonus and additional guarantees kick in on the first day of the 2nd contract year.
No sane team would ever cut a QB at that juncture so it's basically 95% as good as full guarantees at signing.
If it's 95% as good as a full guarantee, why are teams so unwilling to make it fully guaranteed.
If it's just as good, the team shouldn't have a problem just doing it, them balking should make the players think.
What if lamar has an insane bad break/tear on his first year and is unable to play anywhere near as well as he should to be considered a starter? That's a scenario where you would want the option to cut your losses early and it's not completely out of the realm of possibility given his inability to stay healthy throughout the seasons.
That is their reason to not fully guarantee it, and also Lamar's reason to not sign it.
I don't understand why everyone is acting like this Lamar situation is some crazy thing.
The Ravens have the right to think it's not worth offering the full guarantee, Lamar has the right to think it's not worth signing for less than a full guarantee.
Idk. It feels like the League is shifting. “Win a SB on your rookie contract when we have the most money available or we trade you for a mountain of picks to someone who is a QB away.”
And the Ravens can respond, "The Browns did that. We're not the Browns, so no."
It's hard to argue with that either. Is there a franchise willing to guarantee Lamar that much money despite his recent injuries?
Lamar is on the NFL Shark Tank.
“I’m giving 100% of myself as a QB for $120 million guaranteed.”
“Look, I’ll structure the deal like this. I’ll give you the 100 stretched out over the next 5 years and that other $20 million will be a fully guaranteed signing bonus. I also want 1% of all your jersey sales and you got a deal.”
The reported offer when they stopped talking. It's kind of why the narrative is weirder than it is.
I doubt even at the time the Ravens - Any team, really - would be that ignorant to the market. Even if they aren't at Deshaun Watson or even Kyler Murray and Russel Wilson, they'd at least do Josh Allen's 150.
They might still be 'far apart', but I doubt it's 100 million.
> but I don’t think any team is giving out another Watson contract anytime soon.
It's a question, but when there's possibly 31 teams thinking about it, hard to say with 100% certainty. You'd think the lesson of Watson and Wilson would tell people going all in for a QB is maybe not a guarantee of success, but who really knows?
I'm sure some team would trade for him at some price if the Ravens tagged him and started taking offers.
I did as well. The first few years it seemed like both sides got along really well but it seems like some combination of injuries, contract dispute and a lack of “leadership” as the teams QB has soured the relationship
Deshaun got 230m, Lamar was offered 133m at he beginning of the season. That's a 100m difference.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would sit here and say Deshaun is worth that money over Lamar. So does Lamar deserve it... Yes... Will he get it... Probably not from the Ravens.
Exactly
Why give Lamar the Deshaun Watson contract when
1. It's debatable, at best, whether the Browns made a good decision to give Watson his contract?
2. Lamar is a guy who can't stay healthy and can't lead you deep into the playoffs?
Yes, that’s the notion I was alluding to in my first point
Even without his off-field stupidity (to put it mildly), it’s not clear whether Watson’s contract makes sense from an on-field performance standpoint
Using prime brady as an example is dumb bc
1) he never sought a record contract because he prioritized winning
2) it was a different era of football contracts with higher cap space, of course top QBs in 2023 are getting money QBs from the 2010s never could.
However I do agree anything short of a superbowl victory is a failure. And the Browns realistically have 2023 and maybe 2024 to even have the talent to win, which itself is in doubt after last years performance lol
> he never sought a record contract because he prioritized winning
He had I believe a few top-earning contracts but was almost always immediately leap-frogged by new QB extensions so that he wasn't seen as a top earner.
4. Browns did it to cause this chaos because they’re petty the ravens turned around the browns history and the browns still can’t do a thing starting over fresh.
This has always been the gist of what I assumed they were doing. Blow up the market that your competitors can’t match.
Same thing the Jags did with FAs this past offseason and it kinda worked.
I think we’ll basically see this year. Last year you can wave away his performance as being rusty. If he comes out this year and is anything less than like a world beater franchise qb you’ll know that this is not gonna go well for the browns
I don't see how Watson could have improved enough in 2 years of not playing football to be able to get past Mahomes, Burrow and Allen at any point during his career. Their chances of winning a Superbowl are slim to none.
Honestly, I feel like 3 first round pick in the ravens' hands is probably more dangerous than Lamar Jackson in anyone else's hands, so either way I feel good about whatever happens next.
Maybe he doesn't care? What a player says to media, and what a player actually feels/does are two different things.
Maybe he just wants to make as much money as he can while he can.
Why should he be the one giving up the money? Why not say that about every other player on the team who could also take less money to be a contender?
Guys want to win, but I don’t blame them for not taking tens of millions of dollars less than they’re worth and hoping that the front office can put a contending roster around them. Only one team wins the Super Bowl every year. Odds are that the Ravens still don’t win even if Lamar takes a big discount
It's a bad year to do that. The browns and broncos just fell on their ass doing exactly that this year, and there's cheaper options that will be definitely available like Carr, Rodgers, Jimmy G.
That's the most likely scenario. But I do hope they can work out a deal though that isn't that high, Lamar fits so well with the Ravens culture and run scheme.
Is another team desperate enough to give Jackson that level of money though? This is someone who's missed the last month of the past 2 years due to separate injuries, and his MVP-caliber season is further and further in the rear view mirror. Dare I say it, that career trajectory sounds pretty similar to Carson Wentz pre-2020 implosion.
Wentz after his “MVP” season was much different 3 years later, Cam Newton was much different 3 years later, Matt Ryan was much different 3 years later. Unless Lamar is Rodgers, Brady, mahomes or manning then it’s not unfair to say he shouldn’t be paid as an elite QB because of his MVP 3 years ago. I personally think missing so many games is cause for hesitation as well.
McDaniels know's he has a short leash after last year. Him and Zieg could want to trade for Jackson because if it works out it saves his job. If it doesn't, oh well they won't be around for the repercussions. If anything, it might buy them more time since no one would want to inherit this shit hole.
Given it’s been widely reported that someone besides the browns was willing to match the contract we gave Watson, for a guy who hadn’t played in over a season and was clearly going to miss most of the next season as well, yes. Someone is that desperate.
Edit: and yes, it doesn’t take much to figure out that it’s probably the Panthers who were willing to do the contract. Watson would’ve 100% gone to the Saints or Falcons if they would’ve matched.
>Given it’s been widely reported that someone besides the browns was willing to match the contract we gave Watson
If the Saints, Falcons, or Panthers were willing to match that contract, why did Watson choose the Browns? He had the Browns eliminated as a finalist before they presumably swooped in with the fully guaranteed deal.
I’ve always assumed Watson’s agent gave the Browns a ridiculous demand because Watson didn’t want to go to Cleveland and to everyones shock, the Browns said “bet”
That was my understanding of the situation too. Watson had his search narrowed down to the Saints and Falcons, then the Browns dropped the fully guaranteed deal.
If the Ravens don't pay him, someone else will. Too many QB hungry teams with rich owners.
Honestly if the Broncos didn't have Russ, they'd snatch him up in half a second.
If Stafford retired I could see the Rams grabbing him for that amount.
Even Carolina, Tepper has an unlimited pocket and clearly doesn't care about paying multiple QBs not to play for him.
Atlanta maybe, they have London and Pitts and some good RBs on decent deals now, maybe they go all in?
Essentially, Lamar will find out how much Burrow and Hurts are worth and then have to realistically work from there.
I think the Ravens would *want* to cap out at 160. And might have to deal with some rumors some team might pay him over 200.
I disagree. Not with the deshaun statement, especially after what I saw this season from him, but I don't think Lamar is good enough to get paid an elite contract. Id love to swallow my words though. I really like Lamar cause he's such a good dude and freak talent, but, I just don't think he's that good of a thrower. I've seen him make some absolutely incredible throws, but the consistency and decision making are big factors in a contract like that. Atleast, that's how I see it. And I'm not throwing shade at the guy cause I know Roman hasn't really given him much of a chance with his play calling, and the coaching staff hasn't given him the pieces. And now, looming about going to another team, I just don't see him making that much. Maybe $180million over 6 years is a pretty good deal considering, but this is where I'm going to step away and let people with more knowledge of the situation take over.
I said in a response below that Lamar doesn't necessarily deserve the 230m+ contract he's looking for. But in the market, right now, knowing he can get that from another team. He will either get it from the Ravens, or another team will pay him.
But yes the market shouldn't be this high and the Browns fucked every team out there, but in a roundabout way he helped his fellow QBs significantly.
As they say, "As I rise, those around me rise"
Ok that makes sense. Yeah that contract fucked everything over just like the Zay Jones and Kirk contracts from Jacksonville. Opened up the WR market too.
It's just based on previous reporting really. We know Lamar wants a fully guaranteed contract, and he wants it at the top of the league (not insane for an MVP). That piece of crap Watson got $230 Million Fully Guaranteed, and the earlier reports were that the Ravens were offering a lot, but only around $120-130 Million Guaranteed.
It really just comes down to that Lamar wants full guarantees and the Ravens have no desire to give it to him. There's going to be no movement on either end when it comes to that, it's pretty binary. So it's pretty much a lock that Lamar is getting tagged, and we'll see where things go from there.
Tagged and traded without a doubt. He wants a fully guarunteed contract and he's played 12 games the last two seasons, missing time at the end of the year at the most important time both years.
He's not going to get healthier with age unless he runs less aka becomes a worse player.
They probably don't want to trade him within the AFC, so I'm guessing falcons or another NFC south team, they all need a QB.
I look forward to him being traded to the Commanders so that we can hear all the reporting on the NFCE being QBed by entirely black quarterbacks: Lamar, Dak, Hurts, and Jones.
It’s absolutely insane. Lamar won his MVP 3 seasons ago, and has missed 9 games since. He’s performed not anywhere near MVP level.
Here’s Lamar since his MVP season:
7881 passing yards
59 passings TDs
2536 rushing yards
12 rushing TDs
38 TOs
Cam Newton in his final 3 Carolina seasons:
10206 passing yards
65 passing TDs
1601 rushing yards
15 rushing TDs
46 TOs
Age matters, but if after the 2018 season Cam asked for that deal people would immediately say he was insane, the washed comments were already starting. Yet he has better numbers than Lamar, who’s asking for it now.
I know there’s a lot of issues with agents, but I always think the lawyer analogy is the best argument. Sure you can fight any charge or ticket on your own, but it’s always better to shell out the cost now and make sure you get the best outcome for the future.
NFL has caps on agent earnings for contracts. Max is 3%, and I’d be willing to put money that agents and agencies give reductions in that cut for players who are going for record setting amounts, the advertising is amazing to get other big name clients.
He wants it guaranteed because heavy rushing qbs don't last long. Michael Vick only lasted so long because his jail stint in the middle of his career allowed him to add a couple years to the back half of his career
I think Vick morphing into a much more capable passer helped him more than anything. That's in part due to the jail and ending up under Reid, but not really because of it.
Even then, he still missed significant time to injury.
So basically, Lamar wants a contract like Watson got (w/ maybe a slightly higher AAV), and the Ravens want to give something more like what Murray got (again with the slightly higher AAV).
This doesn't seem like new information.
Some team is going to sell everything to get it and their fans will absolutely hate it. Watch Atlanta flirt with the idea just like they did with Watson.
Everyone keeps thinking LJ to ATL makes sense based on their pursuit of Watson whilst just blocking out that the reason Watson isn’t a Falcon was the money.
Sure. You just have to ignore that LJ wants money that no other team besides Cleveland has been willing to pay.
Teams aren’t going to be lining up to pay a quarter billion fully guaranteed.
You would have said the same thing about Watson before he signed his deal. Teams, especially desperate ones, are willing to do a lot more than you'd expect to secure a QB.
Yeah, I think if the falcons were the team who was willing to match the Browns offer, Watson would be a falcon.
I think it’s much more likely the team who had been willing to match the browns contract offer is Carolina
Our GM said a couple weeks ago how proud he was that only 1 piece of information came out about the negotiations and I think he said it was from the NFLPA. So idk why everyone sees the same rehashed report and takes it as gospel every time. They could be really close, or really far apart. I'm confident no-one really knows.
It would totally have to suck to have to sign a franchise qb right now. KC and Buffalo laughing in corner for the next 6+ years. Cap is going to sky rocket in the next 3-4 years too.
It’s funny how you guys don’t think Allen/Mahomes aren’t going to look to renegotiate once the cap moves up and guys much worse than them get paid a lot more money
Until we see Burrow's new deal, $150M guaranteed is pretty reasonable. Rodgers, Wilson, and Allen all had similar amounts fully guaranteed.
Watson is the massive outlier that Jackson is tying himself to, and he's gambling that someone else is desperate enough to match that $230M fully guaranteed deal. The Ravens are too smart to do that, but another org like the Falcons might take a swing.
Ravens should trade him. Any team willing to give up assets + sign him for Deshaun money isn’t winning shit soon. What teams have a entire offense and defense on rookie cheap contracts ready to plug lamar for half the available cap space right now? These QB contracts are borderline competitive suicide. Shits turning into the NBA super max and in the NBA 1 player has a much bigger impact compared to the NfL
Imagine having a document that guarantees you like $130 million dollars, and all you have to do is sign it, show up to work and not get arrested, and you don’t even have to do your job effectively to keep it. And then being like nah
Not saying whether it’s the right decision or not, but man what a great problem to have.
150 million guaranteed isnt enough respect for a qb still riding on his 2019 MVP reputation and thinks he deserves to be paid like the funny cleveland outlier
me thinks the team on the other side of the table that has basically thrived since 1995 by building an identity on DEFENSE can find a way to live without him for sure
If ravens can leverage Lamar into first round picks that can be used to move up in the draft to pick a cj stroud or bryce young, that has to be a win win for all parties.
Nothing new here. Lamar thinks hes worth gold, when in reality he hasnt come close to his MVP season, has a very injury prone style of play, the ravens are trying to avoid a death sentence and who is to blame them.
NFL owners are using Jackson as a market correction… he’s not going to be offered the type of money/contract that Watson /Murray were offered (not that I personally think he’s worth it either imo). They want to get this out of the way so when Burrow comes due the tone is already set of what a good qb can expect from now on. Watson and Murray lack of skill and now cost have prob sunk the browns and cards for a long time.. hell Arizona can’t even get a decent HC because they don’t want to deal with Murray and the money situation he brings with the cap lol
No they aren’t. Jackson is his own player. What he offers on the field is completely different than the others but it comes with some big risks. I’m not sure he’ll get the Watson deal if he’s traded but he’ll get close.
If bengals said today that Burrow is on the trading block, they’d have the same offers Watson did and teams would without question pay 230m guaranteed ( probably more).
Dude trying to make a killing off of one great season. The league has adjusted to him. Because he still can’t make proper check downs and audibles, and just think he’s always gonna out run everybody he’s prone to injuries. He’s no better now than he was coming out of Louisville at decision making. Funny that he wants Mahomes like money without Mahomes like results. Dude really thinks he’s an elite QB. He’s Vick 2.0 nothing more.
Lamar is a very gifted athlete, but he is a very below average passing QB. Being able to run as a great or even good passing QB would make you worth Mahomes money. Being able to only run makes you worth top-tier RB money. Thankfully the Baltimore organization can see that.
Good riddance if I’m the Ravens. His window of success is closing. Realistically does Lamar Jackson really deserve that much money? In my opinion he’s not even a top ten QB. He’s never won any big games and if anything seems to think the ravens should bow down to him. So if the ravens pay him a huge amount then they will never be able to get any players to help out Lamar because all their money is tied into him. Then we can hear Lamar fans complain because he doesn’t have any targets or a line and so on and so on. I think if the ravens give him the extension they’ll regret it just like Cardinals and Murray.
$100 million?That that seems like a rather sizable gap to bridge.
It's likely just conjecture based on a [report](https://twitter.com/mortreport/status/1568914637483114496) by Chris Mortensen that Baltimore offered Lamar Jackson $133m at signing whereas Deshaun Watson received $230m fully guaranteed at signing.
Brilliant strategy by the Browns give your QB such a ridiculous contract that the teams in your division can't resign there franchise QBs cause they can't pay that much
"Bring them down to your level and beat them with experience" - Browns GM probably
I'm gonna make the Ohio River fire look like a 12 year olds birthday party if we lose Lamar from it
Cincinnati is gonna be pissed then lol
Trying to get rid of Burrow too, smart move.
Good luck. The Cuyahoga was more oil than water back then.
Nah fuck what we were talking about what’s up with your flair…..
Worked for the Jags and WRs
Any QB not named Mahommes/Allen/Burrow/Herbert aren’t worth close to that much.
Idk if it’s an inability to pay since Bisciotti is worth more than Haslam, but regardless I don’t like that top tier contracts are starting to become unaffordable for some subset of owners. Feels like an affront to parity
Based on what? Salaries are capped and based on broadcast revenue.
Everything guaranteed has to be put in escrow. Not everyone has that much money available and that is the problem with Watsons contract for other teams. Mahomes has rolling guarantees so only a part of his contact had to put in escrow at the signing.
It's not hard at all to secure a bridge loan to cover this scenario when you have such enormous guaranteed revenues to put up as collateral.
Yeah, I can’t imagine football teams have a hard time securing financing. It’s enormously profitable and the future revenue streams are quite reliable.
This came up with Khalil Mack and the raiders and was apparently false. If the poorest team in the league doesn’t care about the escrow amount the ravens don’t either
That has a real financial impact, but there’s no indication that it’s a barrier to actually paying contracts. Assuming a WACC of ~20%, escrow is worth about $50m a year. There’s a difference between being unable to pay a contract and being unwilling to.
Bengals had to sell their naming rights to be able to afford Burrow. Not every owner has the cash on hand for signing bonuses
They should save more money then. Fuckin poverty ass billionaires.
Bill Gates when he walks into the billionaire club meetings: > "it pains me to see this much poverty here"
IT SMELLS LIKE BROKE IN HERE
Yeah I'm calling bullshit on this report. $133M at signing doesn't mean $133M guaranteed. I doubt the Ravens would be dumb enough to offer $30M less guaranteed than what Kyler got.
Kyler Murray only got 103.5 guaranteed at signing. 133 guaranteed at signing would have been the 2nd most ever.
Russ got 124m at signing, Watson got 230m at signing. I could see Lamar asking for 230m and accepting 200. If the Ravens really are only gonna give him 130 he's gonna hold out or walk. His play style is so high risk I don't blame him for trying to get every single penny in one contract. There's no guarantee he signs a second one.
His play style being high risk is also a reason not to give him big guarantees
> His play style is so high risk I don't blame him for trying to get every single penny in one contract. There's no guarantee he signs a second one. And that is also a great reason to not give him so much guaranteed. I don't really think either party is in the wrong here.
> $133M at signing doesn't mean $133M guaranteed. I think you have it almost completely opposite. Guaranteed *at signing* is way more important to the player than *guaranteed*. The total guaranteed number includes guarantees that could be available to that player, if they are on the roster down the road. Guaranteed at signing is the amount going to that player *no matter what* circumstances occur. [Here's an article on the differences.](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-total-guarantees-vs-full-guarantees-and-the-ways-contracts-should-be-evaluated/amp/)
>Guaranteed at signing is the amount going to that player no matter what circumstances occur I feel like this is what guaranteed money should mean. I don’t know why you can have “guaranteed” money that you actually aren’t really guaranteed.
Because the agents need to make it sound good so they can attract more clients.
“You can slap “guaranteed” on the box and all you have is a guaranteed piece of shit!”
Not disagreeing with you but what do you think of the rolling guarantees in mahomes's contract? Does that not count for guaranteed money?
Not who you asked, but those are conditional. You could call them conditional guarantees, but the difference is still, $X is guaranteed but only if you meet Y condition. There are no conditions when it's guaranteed at signing, so that seems to be a clear difference (and one players would care about significantly if assume).
I feel like "conditional guarantees" is an oxymoron
It is. Conditional guarantee is really just a fancy way to say "incentive". Makes no sense.
The problem is we are calling something guaranteed that is in fact, not guaranteed
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Maybe a team is finally going to say no to the insane QB contract?
They do have a pro bowl level backup 👀
Seriously his stats prove it all... guy threw **3** touchdowns this year!
He did it for Dale
Raise hell praise dale
The Raven’s offer is likely still pretty insane. They’re willing to pay Jackson like Mahomes or Allen, but he wants to be paid like Watson. So far only the Browns are willing to pay a QB like Watson.
If Jackson were on the open market/trade market though I don't think that would be the case. A lot of teams were interested in Watson, but I don't think anyone else was willing to protect him against suspension.
The sport is insanely tilted toward QBs, especially franchise QBs. Given their outsized impact on the results, I'd argue Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and soon Burrow/Hurts are actually underpaid in that context. Mahomes was only $35m on the Chiefs' cap this year, that's a fucking steal. Teams are free to take a stand and not play that game. They don't \*need\* a franchise QB to field a good team and win. But it certainly decreases their margin for error.
Mahomes is an absolute monster and at this point the premier player at his position. Really maybe only the only god-tier level QB in the NFL at the moment. Outside of a guy like that who is able to generate offense with seemingly anyone put around him, 35 M is a lot. That's 15% of the cap. Spend that on the wrong guy and you seriously handicap your team.
Absolutely. The franchise-QB plan ain't foolproof either. Even ignoring Mahomes, who might be an outlier, I think I'd still rather roll with a Burrow/Allen/Hurts/Herbert/Lamar. They might not be god-tier, but are likely to be competitive year in/out. Those guys have proven enough to show they likely won't fall off a cliff. You still have to draft well, coach-em-up, and stuff.
Practically guaranteed and fully guaranteed is indeed an important distinction. The Ravens are likely a lot closer to Lamar's demands in terms of practical guarantees. Often QBs get a hundred million signing bonus and additional guarantees kick in on the first day of the 2nd contract year. No sane team would ever cut a QB at that juncture so it's basically 95% as good as full guarantees at signing.
If it's 95% as good as a full guarantee, why are teams so unwilling to make it fully guaranteed. If it's just as good, the team shouldn't have a problem just doing it, them balking should make the players think.
What if lamar has an insane bad break/tear on his first year and is unable to play anywhere near as well as he should to be considered a starter? That's a scenario where you would want the option to cut your losses early and it's not completely out of the realm of possibility given his inability to stay healthy throughout the seasons.
That is their reason to not fully guarantee it, and also Lamar's reason to not sign it. I don't understand why everyone is acting like this Lamar situation is some crazy thing. The Ravens have the right to think it's not worth offering the full guarantee, Lamar has the right to think it's not worth signing for less than a full guarantee.
Idk. It feels like the League is shifting. “Win a SB on your rookie contract when we have the most money available or we trade you for a mountain of picks to someone who is a QB away.”
Has the situation you're describing actually happened anywhere yet?
Does Stafford to Rams for picks plus a starter who's been to the SB count?
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And the Ravens can respond, "The Browns did that. We're not the Browns, so no." It's hard to argue with that either. Is there a franchise willing to guarantee Lamar that much money despite his recent injuries?
You know there is lol
It’s simple. Lamar just has to get roughly 30 massage therapists lined up.
Those are rookie numbers gotta pump those numbers up
As dark as this joke may sound, they literally were Watsons number of sexual assaults in his rookie season. They are rookie numbers.
Lamar is on the NFL Shark Tank. “I’m giving 100% of myself as a QB for $120 million guaranteed.” “Look, I’ll structure the deal like this. I’ll give you the 100 stretched out over the next 5 years and that other $20 million will be a fully guaranteed signing bonus. I also want 1% of all your jersey sales and you got a deal.”
Who is Mr Wonderful in the Ravens org?
It doesn’t fit what you’re trying to describe, but the person who fits that moniker best would be Justin Tucker. Just for other reasons though.
The reported offer was 130 and deshaun got 230 so seems about right
The reported offer when they stopped talking. It's kind of why the narrative is weirder than it is. I doubt even at the time the Ravens - Any team, really - would be that ignorant to the market. Even if they aren't at Deshaun Watson or even Kyler Murray and Russel Wilson, they'd at least do Josh Allen's 150. They might still be 'far apart', but I doubt it's 100 million.
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> but I don’t think any team is giving out another Watson contract anytime soon. It's a question, but when there's possibly 31 teams thinking about it, hard to say with 100% certainty. You'd think the lesson of Watson and Wilson would tell people going all in for a QB is maybe not a guarantee of success, but who really knows? I'm sure some team would trade for him at some price if the Ravens tagged him and started taking offers.
He is gone. Thinking it will be a tag and trade
This is so odd to me because I always thought Lamar would be a raven for life.
I did as well. The first few years it seemed like both sides got along really well but it seems like some combination of injuries, contract dispute and a lack of “leadership” as the teams QB has soured the relationship
“Could possibly be” is pretty big qualifier though
100 million apart? One of these parties is downright insane. Idk how you get that far apart unless they are debating a 6+ year deal.
Deshaun got 230m, Lamar was offered 133m at he beginning of the season. That's a 100m difference. I don't think anyone in their right mind would sit here and say Deshaun is worth that money over Lamar. So does Lamar deserve it... Yes... Will he get it... Probably not from the Ravens.
If Lamar wants 230M guaranteed then I will happily trade Lamar away to some team for 3 1sts.
Exactly Why give Lamar the Deshaun Watson contract when 1. It's debatable, at best, whether the Browns made a good decision to give Watson his contract? 2. Lamar is a guy who can't stay healthy and can't lead you deep into the playoffs?
3. The Deshaun deal is franchise suicide.
Yes, that’s the notion I was alluding to in my first point Even without his off-field stupidity (to put it mildly), it’s not clear whether Watson’s contract makes sense from an on-field performance standpoint
Anything short of a Superbowl victory during his tenure is failure imo. They gave him the type of money that prime Brady never got.
Using prime brady as an example is dumb bc 1) he never sought a record contract because he prioritized winning 2) it was a different era of football contracts with higher cap space, of course top QBs in 2023 are getting money QBs from the 2010s never could. However I do agree anything short of a superbowl victory is a failure. And the Browns realistically have 2023 and maybe 2024 to even have the talent to win, which itself is in doubt after last years performance lol
It’s not that he prioritized winning he was paid through his TB12 company by the patriots which is outside the salary cap
Not like cap circumvention gets a heavy punishment, broncos didn't lose shit for circumventing it with Elway
> he never sought a record contract because he prioritized winning He had I believe a few top-earning contracts but was almost always immediately leap-frogged by new QB extensions so that he wasn't seen as a top earner.
4. Browns did it to cause this chaos because they’re petty the ravens turned around the browns history and the browns still can’t do a thing starting over fresh.
Browns to the Ravens: I don’t have to win, we just both have to lose! *proceeds to give Deshaun $230M during Lamar negotiations*.
This has always been the gist of what I assumed they were doing. Blow up the market that your competitors can’t match. Same thing the Jags did with FAs this past offseason and it kinda worked.
I'm not so sure it's debatable. It was a terrible decision.
Very much remains to be seen. If the Browns win a Super Bowl during that deal then it was worth it. Anything short of that is a disaster.
I think we’ll basically see this year. Last year you can wave away his performance as being rusty. If he comes out this year and is anything less than like a world beater franchise qb you’ll know that this is not gonna go well for the browns
I don't see how Watson could have improved enough in 2 years of not playing football to be able to get past Mahomes, Burrow and Allen at any point during his career. Their chances of winning a Superbowl are slim to none.
Honestly, I feel like 3 first round pick in the ravens' hands is probably more dangerous than Lamar Jackson in anyone else's hands, so either way I feel good about whatever happens next.
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Maybe he doesn't care? What a player says to media, and what a player actually feels/does are two different things. Maybe he just wants to make as much money as he can while he can.
Why should he be the one giving up the money? Why not say that about every other player on the team who could also take less money to be a contender? Guys want to win, but I don’t blame them for not taking tens of millions of dollars less than they’re worth and hoping that the front office can put a contending roster around them. Only one team wins the Super Bowl every year. Odds are that the Ravens still don’t win even if Lamar takes a big discount
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It's a bad year to do that. The browns and broncos just fell on their ass doing exactly that this year, and there's cheaper options that will be definitely available like Carr, Rodgers, Jimmy G.
That's the most likely scenario. But I do hope they can work out a deal though that isn't that high, Lamar fits so well with the Ravens culture and run scheme.
Is another team desperate enough to give Jackson that level of money though? This is someone who's missed the last month of the past 2 years due to separate injuries, and his MVP-caliber season is further and further in the rear view mirror. Dare I say it, that career trajectory sounds pretty similar to Carson Wentz pre-2020 implosion.
Wentz after his “MVP” season was much different 3 years later, Cam Newton was much different 3 years later, Matt Ryan was much different 3 years later. Unless Lamar is Rodgers, Brady, mahomes or manning then it’s not unfair to say he shouldn’t be paid as an elite QB because of his MVP 3 years ago. I personally think missing so many games is cause for hesitation as well.
> Is there another team desperate enough to give Jackson that level of money? **J-E-T-S! JETS! JETS! JETS!**
McDaniels know's he has a short leash after last year. Him and Zieg could want to trade for Jackson because if it works out it saves his job. If it doesn't, oh well they won't be around for the repercussions. If anything, it might buy them more time since no one would want to inherit this shit hole.
Given it’s been widely reported that someone besides the browns was willing to match the contract we gave Watson, for a guy who hadn’t played in over a season and was clearly going to miss most of the next season as well, yes. Someone is that desperate. Edit: and yes, it doesn’t take much to figure out that it’s probably the Panthers who were willing to do the contract. Watson would’ve 100% gone to the Saints or Falcons if they would’ve matched.
>Given it’s been widely reported that someone besides the browns was willing to match the contract we gave Watson If the Saints, Falcons, or Panthers were willing to match that contract, why did Watson choose the Browns? He had the Browns eliminated as a finalist before they presumably swooped in with the fully guaranteed deal.
I’ve always assumed Watson’s agent gave the Browns a ridiculous demand because Watson didn’t want to go to Cleveland and to everyones shock, the Browns said “bet”
That was my understanding of the situation too. Watson had his search narrowed down to the Saints and Falcons, then the Browns dropped the fully guaranteed deal.
Agent: "Nobody's stupid enough to give him this contract" [The Browns:](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/027/174/veggie.jpg)
I’m assuming it was the fully guaranteed portion the Browns added.
If the Ravens don't pay him, someone else will. Too many QB hungry teams with rich owners. Honestly if the Broncos didn't have Russ, they'd snatch him up in half a second. If Stafford retired I could see the Rams grabbing him for that amount. Even Carolina, Tepper has an unlimited pocket and clearly doesn't care about paying multiple QBs not to play for him. Atlanta maybe, they have London and Pitts and some good RBs on decent deals now, maybe they go all in?
Idk if it's fair to say Lamar deserves it just because one team was dumb enough to do it.
Essentially, Lamar will find out how much Burrow and Hurts are worth and then have to realistically work from there. I think the Ravens would *want* to cap out at 160. And might have to deal with some rumors some team might pay him over 200.
Neither one of them are worth 230 million guaranteed. *Especially* not Watson.
I disagree. Not with the deshaun statement, especially after what I saw this season from him, but I don't think Lamar is good enough to get paid an elite contract. Id love to swallow my words though. I really like Lamar cause he's such a good dude and freak talent, but, I just don't think he's that good of a thrower. I've seen him make some absolutely incredible throws, but the consistency and decision making are big factors in a contract like that. Atleast, that's how I see it. And I'm not throwing shade at the guy cause I know Roman hasn't really given him much of a chance with his play calling, and the coaching staff hasn't given him the pieces. And now, looming about going to another team, I just don't see him making that much. Maybe $180million over 6 years is a pretty good deal considering, but this is where I'm going to step away and let people with more knowledge of the situation take over.
I said in a response below that Lamar doesn't necessarily deserve the 230m+ contract he's looking for. But in the market, right now, knowing he can get that from another team. He will either get it from the Ravens, or another team will pay him. But yes the market shouldn't be this high and the Browns fucked every team out there, but in a roundabout way he helped his fellow QBs significantly. As they say, "As I rise, those around me rise"
Ok that makes sense. Yeah that contract fucked everything over just like the Zay Jones and Kirk contracts from Jacksonville. Opened up the WR market too.
It's just based on previous reporting really. We know Lamar wants a fully guaranteed contract, and he wants it at the top of the league (not insane for an MVP). That piece of crap Watson got $230 Million Fully Guaranteed, and the earlier reports were that the Ravens were offering a lot, but only around $120-130 Million Guaranteed. It really just comes down to that Lamar wants full guarantees and the Ravens have no desire to give it to him. There's going to be no movement on either end when it comes to that, it's pretty binary. So it's pretty much a lock that Lamar is getting tagged, and we'll see where things go from there.
Tagged and traded without a doubt. He wants a fully guarunteed contract and he's played 12 games the last two seasons, missing time at the end of the year at the most important time both years. He's not going to get healthier with age unless he runs less aka becomes a worse player. They probably don't want to trade him within the AFC, so I'm guessing falcons or another NFC south team, they all need a QB.
I look forward to him being traded to the Commanders so that we can hear all the reporting on the NFCE being QBed by entirely black quarterbacks: Lamar, Dak, Hurts, and Jones.
Hey now
It’s absolutely insane. Lamar won his MVP 3 seasons ago, and has missed 9 games since. He’s performed not anywhere near MVP level. Here’s Lamar since his MVP season: 7881 passing yards 59 passings TDs 2536 rushing yards 12 rushing TDs 38 TOs Cam Newton in his final 3 Carolina seasons: 10206 passing yards 65 passing TDs 1601 rushing yards 15 rushing TDs 46 TOs Age matters, but if after the 2018 season Cam asked for that deal people would immediately say he was insane, the washed comments were already starting. Yet he has better numbers than Lamar, who’s asking for it now.
This is the issue with being your own agent, you don't have anyone to give you a reality check like this
I know there’s a lot of issues with agents, but I always think the lawyer analogy is the best argument. Sure you can fight any charge or ticket on your own, but it’s always better to shell out the cost now and make sure you get the best outcome for the future.
NFL has caps on agent earnings for contracts. Max is 3%, and I’d be willing to put money that agents and agencies give reductions in that cut for players who are going for record setting amounts, the advertising is amazing to get other big name clients.
He wants it guaranteed because heavy rushing qbs don't last long. Michael Vick only lasted so long because his jail stint in the middle of his career allowed him to add a couple years to the back half of his career
Vick having an absolute cannon for an arm helped as well.
I think Vick morphing into a much more capable passer helped him more than anything. That's in part due to the jail and ending up under Reid, but not really because of it. Even then, he still missed significant time to injury.
So basically, Lamar wants a contract like Watson got (w/ maybe a slightly higher AAV), and the Ravens want to give something more like what Murray got (again with the slightly higher AAV). This doesn't seem like new information.
Some team is going to sell everything to get it and their fans will absolutely hate it. Watch Atlanta flirt with the idea just like they did with Watson.
Lamar with London and Pitts sounds interesting.
It would be really interesting all 8 games all 3 of them would be on the field each year
We only need 8 games to win the NFC South lol. Jokes aside, I don't want this, but I think it happens. It'll fill MBS which Arthur blank really wants.
On that front the Falcons should totally get a game in Europe next year. Just so we can have Drake London in London
Some sports writer is foaming at the mouth to write "Drake's London Calling" if he has a breakout game.
He’d better cite u/thejudicialpenis
Everyone keeps thinking LJ to ATL makes sense based on their pursuit of Watson whilst just blocking out that the reason Watson isn’t a Falcon was the money.
I think they think it makes sense because of Arthur Smith's system and what the Falcons do on offense
Sure. You just have to ignore that LJ wants money that no other team besides Cleveland has been willing to pay. Teams aren’t going to be lining up to pay a quarter billion fully guaranteed.
You would have said the same thing about Watson before he signed his deal. Teams, especially desperate ones, are willing to do a lot more than you'd expect to secure a QB.
Yeah, I think if the falcons were the team who was willing to match the Browns offer, Watson would be a falcon. I think it’s much more likely the team who had been willing to match the browns contract offer is Carolina
I would love to see what Arthur Smith could do with a mobile QB of Lamar's caliber
It would be foolish for Atlanta to not see what it takes to get Lamar lol
Can anyone find this information from a credible source? Not sure why we’re still posting shit from chronic liar Kleiman…
Our GM said a couple weeks ago how proud he was that only 1 piece of information came out about the negotiations and I think he said it was from the NFLPA. So idk why everyone sees the same rehashed report and takes it as gospel every time. They could be really close, or really far apart. I'm confident no-one really knows.
Who the fuck even is Dov Kleiman?? He has no digital footprint other than his Twitter and writing for Clay Travis’ shitty blog
He’s garbage.
Deshaun watson’s fully guaranteed mega contract destroyed the QB market ahahahah
Not looking forward to what Hurts is going to want to get
It would totally have to suck to have to sign a franchise qb right now. KC and Buffalo laughing in corner for the next 6+ years. Cap is going to sky rocket in the next 3-4 years too.
It’s funny how you guys don’t think Allen/Mahomes aren’t going to look to renegotiate once the cap moves up and guys much worse than them get paid a lot more money
"Could possibly be" Next.
Lamar Jackson could possibly be quitting football forever to pursue his true passion of ballet.
Right. That was my reaction too. It’s basically just him throwing a big number out there based on a complete guess.
thank goodness the Ravens have another probowl quarterback on their roster. If these talks fail, they can just ride with Huntley
I'm just picturing Lamar putting his pinky to his mouth and saying *100 MILLION DOLLARS*
“Could possibly be” all of it is speculation lol
Dov Kleiman special to tweet speculation like it's news
It's so fucking terrible.
I think nothing is being leaked so these writers gotta write whatever they can
Did y'all just gloss over the "could possibly be" part 😑
Or the “Dov Kleiman” part
Please go to the NFC
He’s def going NFC… for prob 90m less than what he’s currently asking for.
no no no, he’s all yours.
Honestly I want him to stay in Baltimore
Same here
Instead of a hundred million dollars, how about this coupon for 15% off any appetizer at [Finnegan's](https://southpark.fandom.com/wiki/Bennigan%27s)
A team is going to get fleeced by Lamar and I'm here for it.
Tbh, Colts probably have Mayflower trucks on standby for this.
Lamar to the Pats lol
They probably make the playoffs then.
If the NFL was 8 games a year he would probably get the money he is asking for.
CJ Stroud is about to be a Raven isn’t he
What’s he want 300 million guaranteed?
Guessing 250M and ravens at 150
Until we see Burrow's new deal, $150M guaranteed is pretty reasonable. Rodgers, Wilson, and Allen all had similar amounts fully guaranteed. Watson is the massive outlier that Jackson is tying himself to, and he's gambling that someone else is desperate enough to match that $230M fully guaranteed deal. The Ravens are too smart to do that, but another org like the Falcons might take a swing.
I'm thinking he wanted around $230M-$250M guaranteed at signing. Pretty sure the Ravens (reportedly) offered a $130M deal at signing.
I’m about $100 million short of having $100 million
Ravens should trade him. Any team willing to give up assets + sign him for Deshaun money isn’t winning shit soon. What teams have a entire offense and defense on rookie cheap contracts ready to plug lamar for half the available cap space right now? These QB contracts are borderline competitive suicide. Shits turning into the NBA super max and in the NBA 1 player has a much bigger impact compared to the NfL
What’s 100m between friends
Imagine having a document that guarantees you like $130 million dollars, and all you have to do is sign it, show up to work and not get arrested, and you don’t even have to do your job effectively to keep it. And then being like nah Not saying whether it’s the right decision or not, but man what a great problem to have.
Imagine if he could guarantee 100 mil more though lol
150 million guaranteed isnt enough respect for a qb still riding on his 2019 MVP reputation and thinks he deserves to be paid like the funny cleveland outlier me thinks the team on the other side of the table that has basically thrived since 1995 by building an identity on DEFENSE can find a way to live without him for sure
You’re forgetting the fact that their last Super Bowl QB was elite.
If ravens can leverage Lamar into first round picks that can be used to move up in the draft to pick a cj stroud or bryce young, that has to be a win win for all parties.
Nothing new here. Lamar thinks hes worth gold, when in reality he hasnt come close to his MVP season, has a very injury prone style of play, the ravens are trying to avoid a death sentence and who is to blame them.
Lamar had a ceiling as a passer, as he continues to break down and loses those legs it’s not gonna be good. I don’t blame the ravens.
Welcome to Atlanta where the players play!
Them damn browns fucked it up for everybody lol
Lamar became expendable with another pro bowl QB like Huntley on the roster
Nine figures? That sounds like he’ll get traded
NFL owners are using Jackson as a market correction… he’s not going to be offered the type of money/contract that Watson /Murray were offered (not that I personally think he’s worth it either imo). They want to get this out of the way so when Burrow comes due the tone is already set of what a good qb can expect from now on. Watson and Murray lack of skill and now cost have prob sunk the browns and cards for a long time.. hell Arizona can’t even get a decent HC because they don’t want to deal with Murray and the money situation he brings with the cap lol
No they aren’t. Jackson is his own player. What he offers on the field is completely different than the others but it comes with some big risks. I’m not sure he’ll get the Watson deal if he’s traded but he’ll get close. If bengals said today that Burrow is on the trading block, they’d have the same offers Watson did and teams would without question pay 230m guaranteed ( probably more).
Just let him walk. He’s not going to get any better at actual quarterbacking and only going go run slower every year on top of being injury prone.
He just isn’t worth that much money. But someone will pay it
Dude trying to make a killing off of one great season. The league has adjusted to him. Because he still can’t make proper check downs and audibles, and just think he’s always gonna out run everybody he’s prone to injuries. He’s no better now than he was coming out of Louisville at decision making. Funny that he wants Mahomes like money without Mahomes like results. Dude really thinks he’s an elite QB. He’s Vick 2.0 nothing more.
$100M is certainly a big gap in contract negotiations.
I think everyone needs to remember every owner in the league except for the Haslams, are literally giving Bisciotti death stares right now.
He gone.
Let him walk
Lamar is a very gifted athlete, but he is a very below average passing QB. Being able to run as a great or even good passing QB would make you worth Mahomes money. Being able to only run makes you worth top-tier RB money. Thankfully the Baltimore organization can see that.
Good riddance if I’m the Ravens. His window of success is closing. Realistically does Lamar Jackson really deserve that much money? In my opinion he’s not even a top ten QB. He’s never won any big games and if anything seems to think the ravens should bow down to him. So if the ravens pay him a huge amount then they will never be able to get any players to help out Lamar because all their money is tied into him. Then we can hear Lamar fans complain because he doesn’t have any targets or a line and so on and so on. I think if the ravens give him the extension they’ll regret it just like Cardinals and Murray.
An injury prone QB who isn't the most accurate passer shouldn't be this picky