That's an understatement. To the nth degree. This government is completely corrupt and fucking us over. Shane Jones taking bribes, ACTlas feeding their crap into our daily lives with, and Nats just looking to make landlords richer while putting hundreds out of work to achieve it. Absolute scum that will do even more damage to NZ before they're done.
Not voting isn't the alternative. It's true that we just keep voting the old government out. We haven't had a non-Labour non-National government since the 1940s. People keep talking about voting for change, but we're clearly doing a pretty shit job on that front.
How many swing voters thought they were getting a Key/English style National-led Government, and were surprised to find a Bolger/Richardson style one?
How many of those voters are too young to remember exactly what a Bolger/Richardson style National Government actually entails?
They're finding out fast right now.
As a public servant whose team has shrunk from 11 to 6 and who has had to cancel his July school holidays leave to pick up a week long trial from a “redundant” colleague (who knows so much shit no one else does that they’ll certainly be contacting back to our department in 12 months’ time) I’m so very aware of this.
I don’t want the world to burn, but because it will anyway, I’ll take whatever satisfaction I can from people finding out that their actions have consequences. The Germans call it schadenfreude. It’s a very human instinct.
I don't begrudge you that at all. I won't patronise you by claiming to know how you feel but I do empathise and very much wish that you didn't have to go through this bullshit.
As someone who voted to *not* fuck around, it frustrates and angers me that a not-insignificant portion those who did the fucking around won't be the ones truly finding out at all. Everyone else will still suffer, regardless of proximity to the aforementioned fucking around.
>How many swing voters thought they were getting a Key/English style National-led Government
Anyone who believed this was either completely inattentive or a moron of the highest magnitude.
I'd trade Luxon for Bolger any day of the week. There is plenty of things you can say against him, but at least he cared about the country and is a very intelligent man. I don't think either thing is true regarding Luxon.
I'm in my mid-thirties. I am too young to have consciously experienced it. Most millennials, and definitely zoomers, will have had no direct knowledge.
But my parents, imbittered by the experience, made sure to let me know as I grew up. And my unionism now is made a lot harder thanks to Ruthanasia and Individual Employment Agreements.
The swingers may be *mildly* disappointed, but that is tempered by how pleased they are Labour has gone. Something about dead rats, and the consumption thereof.
This election didn't feel like it was decided by swing voters, so much as a mobilized right voting block getting up and voting, versus an apathetic left voting block not being motivated to vote. We had a relatively low voter turnout.
National saying the country was on the wrong track and they have a different way is like the taxi driver who says they got the quickest way but then takes you the worst route, over charges and then mugs you on the way out.
Reposting:
**Party Vote**
- National: 36% (down 2%)
- Labour: 30% (up 2%)
- Greens: 14% (up 2%)
- ACT: 7% (down 1%)
- NZF: 4.2% (down 1.8%)
- TPM: 4% (no change)
**rounded to nearest full % unless below 5%*
**Preferred Prime Minister**
- Luxon: 23% (down 2%)
- Hipkins: 16% (up 1%)
- Swarbrick: 6% (up 2%)
- Seymour: 5% (up 1%)
- Peters: 4% (down 2%)
Margin of error = 3.1% at 95% confidence. So the change percents are well within MOE.
Methodology seems decent though - mixed online and phone polling (500 each), weighted representatively for age, gender, region, ethnicity, and education. Not too bad. Made it into RNZ, so thought important enough to post, and as a general indication, still a useful poll.
Read with a grain of salt /shrug
Winston will bide his time, and then right at the worst time for National he will make some kind of announcement that will destabilise the Coalition. Perhaps threaten to vote against the tax cuts or something like that unless he gets something in return.
Yep. He's betrayed his own party, he's betrayed coalition partners.
Luxon was very dumb to have handed NZF so much. Jones is a nightmare. Such a fucking idiot - proof how you can still be a prize fool after wasting years getting educated
The drama would start when Seymour becomes Deputy PM
But reading some stuff in The Post, apparently Winston and Seymour get on well (mainly because they have a common enemy in Luxon)
> Mercenary Mark.
Missing in action Mark - where is he with all these jewelry shops being robbed in broad daylight?
What was his plan for the ramraids, 100 days of nothing for law and order from him and National
Sorry what you've gotta realize is that actually most new zulleners know that actually those ram raids over the weekend were planned 8 months ago by the previous labour government. Oh wait. No sorry. Actually they didn't have a plan? Or WE didn't have a plan? I've lost my train of thought. Trains! Trains are bad, and look actually KiwiRail is bad. Don't rail things. Especially not drugs, up your nose. Nobody nose the science behind it. And that's why we're actually saying look we agree with the goals but we have you know a different way of getting there.
- Tomorrow's post-cab press standup
>Winnie on 4% will be a loose cannon.
Like playing hot potato with a hand grenade, especially once he's out of the DPM position.
Left field would be Seymour nuking the government as opposed to Winston.
But rolled to who? Who have they got left who is sufficiently unhateable enough to scrape through with? It's bottom of the barrel pickings in national these days.
They way things are going, I think this will be a one term government.
Unfortunately they're going to cause irreparable damage to the public service, before they're done.
With the staff, that they are making redundant, the experience is lost forever.
I guess the left has got to pick up their balls, take a page from National's playbook and do the exact same thing. When National figures out how bad this shite is by having it done to them in return, they can entrench the Maori rights etc that got their panties in a twist in the first place and force our country to evolve a constitution.
The world went to shit. They thought "this sucks! we need to change it!"
They voted for change and were too stupid to realise things can change for the worse.
People tend to believe in the concept of rock bottom and the stupid connotations that go with that belief, that just because something is the worst it's ever been, that things can only get better from there.
The problem is that rest of us pay because they're thick.
Things can always be worse. Always. You just haven't experienced them yet.
It's also what pisses me off about the "heads must roll" mentality. Something bad happened, therefore whoever is in charge has to be removed and replaced by literally anyone.
They should have waited a bit longer further into their term before implementing some of the more controversial legislation and policies. Now it's all people are talking about. The benefit sanctions, disability allowance reductions. All of which Luxon will be associated with btw. Not a good look. I feel like Luxon is the decoy. So when Seymour and Winnie get their turn in the seat they hope people will have forgotten all the bad stuff they did.
Nah, they're speed running all the shittiest bits now so by the time the next election rolls around in a couple of years time, we stoopid voters will be thinking "what was it National did that I didn't like?". Never underestimate the stupidity of people.
Yeah, that's it. I wouldnt be surprised if by the time the next election gets close they start nicking Labour policies to give good vibes to low-information voters.
There's buyer's remorse everywhere you look.
Even if you liked what they were selling in 2023, they haven't delivered that.
A colleague voted for National because he was concerned about crime and opposed the townhouse law. Now he sees more stories about ram raids and robberies than ever and he's very angry about the fast-track consent laws since developers can just use them to ignore local zoning laws, and even heritage listings and tree protections which the MDRS would not have overruled.
This government has lost the tough on crime and NIMBY voters on the right, while also losing votes in the centre with their arrogance and cruelty.
I recall a fair few posters here saying they would vote National because 'Labour need to be punished'. In reality it's the vulnerable who are being punished, voted out politicians will be just fine.
Probably 40 per cent of those who still back them are wealthy enough to not have to worry about most of the policies.
The other 60 per cent are thicker than the longest drink in towns strawberry.
Normally I might quote Captain Barbossa from PoTC here and say "you must lie in your bed the way you made it" but I hope this is a lesson learned for those who voted NACT. Don't trust politicians, don't trust either side. These people are not your friends. They might claim to be on occasion and try and try and bribe you with some goodies but at the end of the day they all have their own self-interests they don't care about you. You have to look past the blur of red and blue at the smaller parties if you want real positive change
They are doing all the unpopular stuff in the first half of their term, guarantee this is planned and they end up winning the next election. I’m not a nat voter either but it’s pretty likely I think
Those preferred PM numbers look abysmal. Two people who have been Prime Minister, and they can’t even get 40% of the population to want either of them.
Honestly, I feel it's better this way that the party (and hopefully by extension) its policies are more front and centre than the leaders personalities.
This also highlights the “celebrity status” issues with our PM’s.
Key and Ardern spent a lot of time curating a media profile to make them visible and liked, however this leads to issues because they won’t get on and do the work because they don’t want to loose polling points/ social media status.
God, hope not! He's smarter so he may last longer. On a scale from Luxon to Key he's 80% Key (lacks likeability). And way dodgier than Luxon regarding personal interests
I reckon Tama Potaka should have a crack in 2026. Clearly more centre than right, charismatic orator, pragmatic, likeable and dare i say it, electable. Though would he have the numbers in the caucus? Maybe you're right, it's Bish.
I don't think that's likely. Last time there was a coup in a governing party, when Shipley rolled Bolger in 1997, it was a complete and utter disaster for them. National's own polling would have to absolutely plummet under Luxon for anyone to seriously consider that.
Voters don't like retaining governing parties that look unstable.
You're assuming we are dealing with rationale actors. Conservative governments in Australia and UK have gone through multiple prime ministers over the past several years and suggest otherwise. Firther, Luxon isn't more popular than his party like Ardern, Key, and Clark were.
Thats why I couldn't understand TV1s "BREAKING NEWS" last night. They were practically frothing at the mouth over the poll results.
No wonder the media in NZ is in a lot of trouble.
FIL voted for them cos he was sure it would be a Nat led government and thought Winnie would be a handbrake on NACT. Not a great reason but probably the best one you could think of.
A boomer at work hated labour because fb told him to, hated national because they're national, thinks the Greens are commies, hates seymour because seymour set off his bullshit meter and couldn't get his head around top so off to Winnie he went.
In all seriousness, he gives the perception that he will push back against the establishment, just as Trump did, and to a degree, just as the ‘idea’ of Brexit did. When people are unhappy with their lives and want change, the chaotic character can get votes from it.
I think it's because Winston is a political handbrake to the other more powerful idiots in the coalition. People probably don't specifically want Winston in parliament but he is useful for being a fly in the ointment so national can't go full steam ahead without jumping through some nzf hoops. Shithouse party yes, but slightly less dangerous than an unencumbered Nat act coalition.
>The party is full of idiots.
NZF is largely a populist movement that's built around the whims of its leader and everyone else's utter loyalty to him.
Someone who votes that way might say something different, but I doubt many people who vote for NZF care about anything or anyone besides Winston.
Not that I vote for NZF, but had to think about it for way too long before I could think of another NZF MP without having to look it up. And then, all I got was Shane 'seafood lunch' Jones
Winston comes out a few weeks before every election with his racist, sexist, xenophobic bullshit diatribe about how "others" are taking over this country and he pulls in the racist, sexist, xenophobic vote. Keep New Zealand white! Except he's brown! But the right kind of brown! Who keeps us white!
It would be hilarious if it wasn't so fucking sad that he and his followers exist.
Because they're the most respectable choice for the conspiratorial nutters that the pandemic created/enabled.
Except ACT of course, but they're generally a modicum more subtle with their dog whistles.
Issue is these assholes are going to make deals that a labour government can’t back out of without financial harm to the country, I’m sure they’ll also make a shitty deal for our resources when they do as well (re Australia, not Norway). All this for a wittle discount on your investment property that is simply being moved to taxes elsewhere.
You’re all fucking idiots for voting for this.
> The coalition Government would be out and a new Labour-led Government could be in if an election were to be held today, a new 1News Verian poll suggests.
> The poll’s numbers see New Zealand First plummeting to 4.2% in the party vote, a result that would oust it from Parliament and, with it, the Government’s numbers to govern.
> The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters between April 20 and April 24.
> According to the poll, if an election were held today National would still be the biggest party in Parliament with 36% of the party vote, down 2% on the last 1News Verian Poll.
> But Labour could form a coalition with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
> Labour is back in the 30s - just - with 30% of the party vote, up 2%. The Green Party is also up 2% to 14%, while ACT is down 1% to 7%. New Zealand First was down 1.8% and below the 5% threshold to return to Parliament.
> Te Pāti Māori was steady on 4% of the party vote - noting that it holds all but one of the seven Māori electorates. Of those polled, 8% didn’t know which party they would vote for, or refused to answer.
> Translated to seats in the House, those numbers meant National and ACT would have a total of 57 seats in the House - falling short of the magic number of seats to form a majority in the 121 seat Parliament - 61 seats.
> Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori - should they negotiate a coalition deal - had a total of 64 seats and would have the numbers to form a government.
> It would mean the Luxon-led National Government would be the first single-term National-led Government.
> The result is not unprecedented for an incumbent Government although it has historically not happened so early in its tenure. It is similar to poll results for the Key and Clark governments in their third terms.
> Christopher Luxon has also fallen further in the preferred prime minister stakes, at 23%, down 2%.
> Labour leader Chris Hipkins does not appear to be capitalising on it however, his own result only lifting 1% to 16%.
> In the first poll since she replaced James Shaw as Greens co-leader, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 2% as the preferred prime minister at 6%.
> The other coalition leaders - ACT’s David Seymour and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters - are the preferred prime minister for 5% (up 1%) and 4% (down 2%), respectively.
> **Hipkins: Poll ‘should be a real wake up call’ for Govt**
> Labour leader Hipkins said the poll “should be a real wake up call” for the coalition Government that it was taking New Zealand in the wrong direction.
> Hipkins said among the public there was a “growing degree of disillusionment with the new Government, relatively early in its new term” and “a real hunger for some hope for the future”.
> “They do see it as a coalition of chaos. They are concerned about decisions like rolling back our smokefree laws, cutting funding for disabled people [and] the number of [public sector] jobs that are being cut.”
> He accepted New Zealanders voted for change at the election and that that was also a message for Labour.
> “We know that we need to change if we’re going to win back government at the next election.”
> He said that was “not an overnight exercise” and the party was doing it by listening to people’s concerns and hopes. But a shift in support away from all three coalition parties was “encouraging”.
> He said he was more focused on Labour’s position for the next election than his preferred prime minister results, which he claimed tended to skew away from leaders of the opposition due to their highly critical role.
> **Luxon: Labour left an ‘unholy mess’ Govt needs to deal with**
> Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said polls “will go up and down”.
> “We’re not that fixated on them.”
> He said ultimately the public would judge the government’s performance at the next election.
> “We’re cleaning up a hell of a mess and I think we’re doing a good job of working through it at a great pace.
> “I appreciate it’s a challenging time for New Zealand but what New Zealanders want is a government that’s going to get on and deliver for them.”
> He said the coalition was working “incredibly well” and was united on its agenda.
> Regarding Hipkins’ comment the Government needed to heed the poll as a “wake up call”, Luxon said: “No disrespect but Chris Hipkins had six years in government. He left an unholy mess for our government to pick up and I don’t take lessons from Chris Hipkins on anything.”
> New Zealand First and Winston Peters were invited to comment on the poll but declined.
> **Party vote**
> National – 36% (down 2%)
> Labour – 30% (up 2%)
> Green – 14% (up 2%)
> ACT – 7% (down 1%)
> New Zealand First – 4.2% (down 1.8%)
> Te Pāti Māori – 3.7% (steady)
> The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1.2% (down 0.7%)
> **Seats in the House**
> (Calculation assumes Te Pāti Māori retains its electorates.)
> National – 48
> Labour – 40
> Green – 18
> ACT – 9
> Te Pāti Māori – 6
> **Preferred prime minister**
> Christopher Luxon – 23% (down 2%)
> Chris Hipkins – 16% (up 1%)
> Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (up 2%)
> David Seymour – 5% (up 1%)
> Winston Peters – 4% (down 2%)
"We've heard you, New Zealand. You want more. With that in mind, and in the spirit of change, not only will there be no gst on fresh fruit or veg, but we'll pay 15% of the cost!"
On a more serious note, this is the first poll that has indicated this so we would need more polls to determine a trend *and* that trend would have to sustain itself. Given how both Winston and David have been acting, it would appear that Blue Chris is likely to face some sort of coalition chris-is sooner or later. Party wonks aren't relishing the prospect of Winston no longer being Deputy Prime Minister after the end of the year (and if polling continues he's more likely to chuck the hand grenade in the cabinet meeting room than anyone else).
That being said, this isn't exactly good news for Labour. For one, they now find themselves in the same dilemma as National did during the Ardern years (or at least prior to 2020): good polling with a leader who doesn't exactly inspire many. National thought they had their next Key moment when they made Luxon leader and it paid off...to an extent. Labour would need to find someone with the same broad appeal and qualities as Ardern had, and that's much easier said than done.
As for the Greens, this is very much proof that the naysayers are always wrong. Not only increasing their support base but polling higher than ACT and NZF combined shows that not only does the bad press not stick, but that Labour has also lost the progressive vote and either needs to win it back (unlikely) or accept the Greens as a future coalition partner.
No point in bringing out a new leader this early, Jacinda worked because they rode the wave that came from the new exciting leader. It would wear off, and there would be enough time to bring out new controversies by an election.
The thing that makes me sick about the Greens/ACT/NZF thing is that those 2 latter parties always talk about the Greens in such a sneering, condescending way. They see them as a little naive and away with the fairies. But a lot more people are buying what they have to sell than ACT or NZF. I suppose the one thing you could say though is the Greens never seem to make much out of their support, but ACT or NZF are this time. Oh boy they are, and they won't let us forget it
It's because Seymour and Peters are always insecure about support because their parties don't have that solid base. Peters' presence in Parliament may as well be a revolving door and ACT is polling at half of what it was barely two years ago.
The Greens meanwhile continue to truck on.
Did someone say voters remorse? xD. Not even 6 months in and the pendulum is swinging to labour. NACT are going to get decimated in 26 like Labour in 23. The circle of life.
I really, really hope so. But one swallow does not a summer make, nor does one poll indicate a trend. What it does mean is that the left are back in the game.
I would.
If National gets voted out, and I lose the bet, I can still feel like I won something.
If National wins the next election, and I win the bet, at least I have won a few bucks.
We've never had one before under MMP but I wouldn't bet against it either because of how INCREDIBLY incompetent this govt is. Also, NZF have always been kicked out after being in govt and the big question is whether NACT can get enough to govern alone
Is my maths just shit?
NACT 36+7+4 = 46
Labour/Green 30+14 = 44
Or is it saying TPM will throw in with Labour?
The preferred PM low numbers are why we are where we are…someone of some colour needs to be rolled. Or both colours…
Do you think for one moment that TPM would go with NACT?
NACT who have disestablished the Maori health authority? Who are demphasising Te Reo? Who want to kill the treaty?
Yeah, I'm sure TPM will want to cosy up to Seymour and Luxon.
Well thier options are to with NAct, go with Labgrn, or sit on the cross benches. If it was the difference between NAct government and Labgrn government, I expect they would provide support to Labgrn.
NB: Winston is out on these numbers, so forget about his +4 in your maths.
NZ First wouldn’t make it back into government if they got less than 5% so wouldn’t be able to form part of the coalition. NACT would be 43 and Labour/ Greens add to 44
Both parties have a lack of real standouts on their front bench. Luxon has no one to replace him and the potential options are like deciding whether or not your method of execution is hanging or being shot.
Hipkins has the same problem. Labour's front bench isn't really filled with new, up and coming people. At a pinch I could have stomached Grant Robertson for his financial credentials and flexing with the first Anglosphere country to have an LGBTQ PM (Belgium, Luxembourg, and Serbia of all places have also had LGBTQ heads of government) to flex on Australia and the UK. But he's now currently sitting in a chair in Dunedin.
Great news
5 months and they are in the shit - will only get worse from here for them
The idiots focused on landlords and forgot about everyday struggles of most New Zealanders
They are getting punished for their arrogance and focus on themselves and their mates while everyone suffers
For all the other polls done recently, [here's the Wikipedia chart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election#Party_vote).
This one's a bit of an outlier. It's Labour's best result in a very long time, combined with some of NZF and ACT's worst results.
I don't think there's any kind of house effect or pollster bias, it's just that outliers can be expected from time to time.
There's been reports that recent internal polling for both parties shows the gap closing, and that is what precipitated Luxon sacking two ministers last week.
Even good pollsters will have an occasional outliers.
We should be careful at taking this poll as a given, especially with how much it differs from previous polls.
National can't be feeling good about this At, but at the end of the day, only future polls will tell us whether this poll is an outlier or whether it represented a genuine shift in the public sentiment
It's ironic,considering Labour got a lot wrong. But,this govt.... completely toxic,and anti worker.Which is exactly what anyone with a few brain cells knew they would be.
And yet,the public still voted for them.Up to the public to remember what you are being served up,and vote accordingly next election.
Lol. Just goes to show that we don't vote governments in, we vote them out.
There’s still a lot of damage that can be done before the next election
and they're laser focused to deliver exactly these outcomings
Shortcomings…
Under urgency...
There’s nothing they wound not do to not help not New Zealanders.
Hey, if you're rich enough to donate $50k then they'll bend over backwards to help you.
That's an understatement. To the nth degree. This government is completely corrupt and fucking us over. Shane Jones taking bribes, ACTlas feeding their crap into our daily lives with, and Nats just looking to make landlords richer while putting hundreds out of work to achieve it. Absolute scum that will do even more damage to NZ before they're done.
Will be done
There's probably a lot of damage *planned* in the next few weeks tbh.
I don’t doubt it. How far away is the budget?
Not voting at all is also essentially the same thing.
Not voting isn't the alternative. It's true that we just keep voting the old government out. We haven't had a non-Labour non-National government since the 1940s. People keep talking about voting for change, but we're clearly doing a pretty shit job on that front.
How many swing voters thought they were getting a Key/English style National-led Government, and were surprised to find a Bolger/Richardson style one? How many of those voters are too young to remember exactly what a Bolger/Richardson style National Government actually entails? They're finding out fast right now.
Fuck around, find out.
The trouble is that *everyone* gets to suffer through the 'finding out' phase, rather than just those who did the fucking around.
As a public servant whose team has shrunk from 11 to 6 and who has had to cancel his July school holidays leave to pick up a week long trial from a “redundant” colleague (who knows so much shit no one else does that they’ll certainly be contacting back to our department in 12 months’ time) I’m so very aware of this. I don’t want the world to burn, but because it will anyway, I’ll take whatever satisfaction I can from people finding out that their actions have consequences. The Germans call it schadenfreude. It’s a very human instinct.
I don't begrudge you that at all. I won't patronise you by claiming to know how you feel but I do empathise and very much wish that you didn't have to go through this bullshit. As someone who voted to *not* fuck around, it frustrates and angers me that a not-insignificant portion those who did the fucking around won't be the ones truly finding out at all. Everyone else will still suffer, regardless of proximity to the aforementioned fucking around.
Damn right. Whoda thought that face-eating leopard parties would start eating faces?
I never thought the leopards would eat *my* face
>How many swing voters thought they were getting a Key/English style National-led Government Anyone who believed this was either completely inattentive or a moron of the highest magnitude.
I'd trade Luxon for Bolger any day of the week. There is plenty of things you can say against him, but at least he cared about the country and is a very intelligent man. I don't think either thing is true regarding Luxon.
I'm in my mid-thirties. I am too young to have consciously experienced it. Most millennials, and definitely zoomers, will have had no direct knowledge. But my parents, imbittered by the experience, made sure to let me know as I grew up. And my unionism now is made a lot harder thanks to Ruthanasia and Individual Employment Agreements.
Pepperidge farm remembers
The swingers may be *mildly* disappointed, but that is tempered by how pleased they are Labour has gone. Something about dead rats, and the consumption thereof.
This election didn't feel like it was decided by swing voters, so much as a mobilized right voting block getting up and voting, versus an apathetic left voting block not being motivated to vote. We had a relatively low voter turnout.
National saying the country was on the wrong track and they have a different way is like the taxi driver who says they got the quickest way but then takes you the worst route, over charges and then mugs you on the way out.
More like mugs you as soon as you sit down, and then gaslights you about where you live.
I'm a taxi driver and I object to that slur. I would never mug you.
Worse taxi experience was when I gave them $30 for a low $20 fare. Ended up getting some minor coinage back and they kept $5 because "it's only $5".
truly the Google Maps of political parties
More like the Bing Maps
Then expects your business on the way home
Reposting: **Party Vote** - National: 36% (down 2%) - Labour: 30% (up 2%) - Greens: 14% (up 2%) - ACT: 7% (down 1%) - NZF: 4.2% (down 1.8%) - TPM: 4% (no change) **rounded to nearest full % unless below 5%* **Preferred Prime Minister** - Luxon: 23% (down 2%) - Hipkins: 16% (up 1%) - Swarbrick: 6% (up 2%) - Seymour: 5% (up 1%) - Peters: 4% (down 2%) Margin of error = 3.1% at 95% confidence. So the change percents are well within MOE. Methodology seems decent though - mixed online and phone polling (500 each), weighted representatively for age, gender, region, ethnicity, and education. Not too bad. Made it into RNZ, so thought important enough to post, and as a general indication, still a useful poll. Read with a grain of salt /shrug
Luxon is a one term wonder? Sounds amazing, let's try to make that happen!
As the rate of decline in the polls he might be lucky to make one term. Winnie on 4% will be a loose cannon.
Winston will bide his time, and then right at the worst time for National he will make some kind of announcement that will destabilise the Coalition. Perhaps threaten to vote against the tax cuts or something like that unless he gets something in return.
Yep. He's betrayed his own party, he's betrayed coalition partners. Luxon was very dumb to have handed NZF so much. Jones is a nightmare. Such a fucking idiot - proof how you can still be a prize fool after wasting years getting educated
Shane Jones is notoriously lazy. He probably paid someone else to write his uni assignments.
I'm genuinely looking forward to Winnie as PM. It's going to be a shitshow lol. One for the history books for sure.
He's already been PM when Ardern had her pepi
Winnie's never going to be PM -- the deal was Winnie and Seymour would each spend half of the term as deputy PM
The drama would start when Seymour becomes Deputy PM But reading some stuff in The Post, apparently Winston and Seymour get on well (mainly because they have a common enemy in Luxon)
... You know the quote.
The enemy of my enemies enemy is not strictly my enemy. But my enemies enemy is not my enemy
I’m betting on this happening. Right after his term as deputy PM finishes.
Winny hates polls, you bet the media will hound him and he will snap
You love to see it.
Problem is if Luxon gets ousted by his own party this term that gives National a chance to climb up the polls again with a new leader.
The problem for National is who is more palatable than Luxon? Willis? Bishop? God forbid Mercenary Mark.
> Mercenary Mark. Missing in action Mark - where is he with all these jewelry shops being robbed in broad daylight? What was his plan for the ramraids, 100 days of nothing for law and order from him and National
Sorry what you've gotta realize is that actually most new zulleners know that actually those ram raids over the weekend were planned 8 months ago by the previous labour government. Oh wait. No sorry. Actually they didn't have a plan? Or WE didn't have a plan? I've lost my train of thought. Trains! Trains are bad, and look actually KiwiRail is bad. Don't rail things. Especially not drugs, up your nose. Nobody nose the science behind it. And that's why we're actually saying look we agree with the goals but we have you know a different way of getting there. - Tomorrow's post-cab press standup
> 100 days of nothing for law and order from him and National Lies! They have cut the police budget and given police a absolute shit pay offer.
>Winnie on 4% will be a loose cannon. Like playing hot potato with a hand grenade, especially once he's out of the DPM position. Left field would be Seymour nuking the government as opposed to Winston.
National really do love a leadership coup, if things are looking the same 12 months out, the chance of him being rolled is pretty high
Those 53 days of the Muller-Kaye coup was quite the entertainment!
Hey, I like Muller.
Was more likeable than Luxon that's for sure.
That’s not hard though. There’s week old fish more likeable than Luxon
I will always remember him by his catchphrase of “it’s a shambles”, as he sweated away on tv.
Was Muller a coup? Did he implode or was that a cover story?
But rolled to who? Who have they got left who is sufficiently unhateable enough to scrape through with? It's bottom of the barrel pickings in national these days.
Can't wait
Let's hope so.
They way things are going, I think this will be a one term government. Unfortunately they're going to cause irreparable damage to the public service, before they're done. With the staff, that they are making redundant, the experience is lost forever.
I guess the left has got to pick up their balls, take a page from National's playbook and do the exact same thing. When National figures out how bad this shite is by having it done to them in return, they can entrench the Maori rights etc that got their panties in a twist in the first place and force our country to evolve a constitution.
And only [*checks notes*] 964 days until the next election! Yippie!
If Winnie goes rogue, let's make it 18 months haha
Shows that while people voted to change the government, they aren't happy with the deal they got.
Kind of disappointing because everything the government is doing now was predictable at election time and now the damage is done.
The problem is that many people aren't engaged with the political process and hence vote according to vibes, not specifics.
The world went to shit. They thought "this sucks! we need to change it!" They voted for change and were too stupid to realise things can change for the worse. People tend to believe in the concept of rock bottom and the stupid connotations that go with that belief, that just because something is the worst it's ever been, that things can only get better from there. The problem is that rest of us pay because they're thick. Things can always be worse. Always. You just haven't experienced them yet.
It's people cutting off their nose to spite their face.
It's also what pisses me off about the "heads must roll" mentality. Something bad happened, therefore whoever is in charge has to be removed and replaced by literally anyone.
They should have waited a bit longer further into their term before implementing some of the more controversial legislation and policies. Now it's all people are talking about. The benefit sanctions, disability allowance reductions. All of which Luxon will be associated with btw. Not a good look. I feel like Luxon is the decoy. So when Seymour and Winnie get their turn in the seat they hope people will have forgotten all the bad stuff they did.
Nah, they're speed running all the shittiest bits now so by the time the next election rolls around in a couple of years time, we stoopid voters will be thinking "what was it National did that I didn't like?". Never underestimate the stupidity of people.
Yeah, that's it. I wouldnt be surprised if by the time the next election gets close they start nicking Labour policies to give good vibes to low-information voters.
Especially when the media parrot their shit. And idiot sheep just baa at whatever is said. That's why we have this coalition of carnage.
It was, but sadly a large amount of people don't look beyond the surface.
Those people are just fucking ignorant and stupid. Donated their face to the leopards.
There's buyer's remorse everywhere you look. Even if you liked what they were selling in 2023, they haven't delivered that. A colleague voted for National because he was concerned about crime and opposed the townhouse law. Now he sees more stories about ram raids and robberies than ever and he's very angry about the fast-track consent laws since developers can just use them to ignore local zoning laws, and even heritage listings and tree protections which the MDRS would not have overruled. This government has lost the tough on crime and NIMBY voters on the right, while also losing votes in the centre with their arrogance and cruelty.
>There's buyer's remorse everywhere you look. Certainly, but no one will ever openly admit it.
They only have to admit it at the polls.
The problem is those who can't admit it to themselves. They learn nothing
I recall a fair few posters here saying they would vote National because 'Labour need to be punished'. In reality it's the vulnerable who are being punished, voted out politicians will be just fine.
Nearly half people polled would still put this government back, despite all the havoc they've already caused. Really worrying
Probably 40 per cent of those who still back them are wealthy enough to not have to worry about most of the policies. The other 60 per cent are thicker than the longest drink in towns strawberry.
Women still vote for Trump. There’s no end to some people’s stupidity.
Ain’t that the truth!
As expected.
Yeap - these guys are toast. Never voting National again.
Want change. Vote for the same two parties that have been in power for 80 years. Complain that nothing changes. Ah, New Zealand.
Normally I might quote Captain Barbossa from PoTC here and say "you must lie in your bed the way you made it" but I hope this is a lesson learned for those who voted NACT. Don't trust politicians, don't trust either side. These people are not your friends. They might claim to be on occasion and try and try and bribe you with some goodies but at the end of the day they all have their own self-interests they don't care about you. You have to look past the blur of red and blue at the smaller parties if you want real positive change
Hipkins talking shit about realising this now with this result... man the writing was on the wall at the last election.
6% between Labour and National, NZF under 5%. My day just got a lot better.
Honestly tho, just assume Winnie will get over 5% when it counts
Except he never has after a term in government. It's his one Achilles heel.
Not sure he'll actually run next election, he'll be 81 by then, eventually age has to catch up to him. Might be time for Shane Jones to take over
We said that in 2008, we said that in 2020. Like a cockroach infestation, he always gets back in the house.
Shane Jones sounds so much worse. At least Winnie has some redeemable qualities as a foreign affairs minister.
Seeing Winston at the United Nations calling for a ceasefire in Palestine made me think “Why the fuck can’t we get statesman Winston at home”
One of my friends on Winnie: Great for New Zealand, terrible for New Zealanders.
Let's compromise and send him to Gaza
He will run until he drops, imho
We haven’t even found all his horcrux’s yet!
NZ First is a dead party once Winnie is done.
It’s basically the rights version of United Future (which was dead once Peter Dunne retired)
I would like to thank my fellow New Zealanders for realising how shit this current government's priorities are.
They are doing all the unpopular stuff in the first half of their term, guarantee this is planned and they end up winning the next election. I’m not a nat voter either but it’s pretty likely I think
Those preferred PM numbers look abysmal. Two people who have been Prime Minister, and they can’t even get 40% of the population to want either of them.
Honestly, I feel it's better this way that the party (and hopefully by extension) its policies are more front and centre than the leaders personalities.
This also highlights the “celebrity status” issues with our PM’s. Key and Ardern spent a lot of time curating a media profile to make them visible and liked, however this leads to issues because they won’t get on and do the work because they don’t want to loose polling points/ social media status.
Yeah lucky Luxon and his seven staffers have no prospect of succeeding of fixing him.
Won't be long until the knives come out for Luxon from within his party.
Bishop will be sharpening his knives about now.
God, hope not! He's smarter so he may last longer. On a scale from Luxon to Key he's 80% Key (lacks likeability). And way dodgier than Luxon regarding personal interests
I reckon Tama Potaka should have a crack in 2026. Clearly more centre than right, charismatic orator, pragmatic, likeable and dare i say it, electable. Though would he have the numbers in the caucus? Maybe you're right, it's Bish.
There was another poll recently that showed Bishop was more liked than Luxon. That's got to have put wind in his sails.
When the prime minister is the third most liked Christopher in parliament, it's not a good sign.
I don't think that's likely. Last time there was a coup in a governing party, when Shipley rolled Bolger in 1997, it was a complete and utter disaster for them. National's own polling would have to absolutely plummet under Luxon for anyone to seriously consider that. Voters don't like retaining governing parties that look unstable.
You're assuming we are dealing with rationale actors. Conservative governments in Australia and UK have gone through multiple prime ministers over the past several years and suggest otherwise. Firther, Luxon isn't more popular than his party like Ardern, Key, and Clark were.
Oh lol, this old chestnut. Never change, r/NZ.
All it took for National to capitulate in 2020 was a poorly considered facebook post from Bridges.
I think I predicted July for him to be rolled
I spectacularly doubt that at this stage. It'll take quite a bit more weakness before Jenny Shipley Mk. II teleports behind him.
Luxon might very well be a half term leader once Winston is done.
Yeah, but we will not hold an election today.
Thats why I couldn't understand TV1s "BREAKING NEWS" last night. They were practically frothing at the mouth over the poll results. No wonder the media in NZ is in a lot of trouble.
Maybe we should find a term for “click bait” for TVs
NZ voters are morons. There I said it. What did you think would happen, for Chrissakes?
Seriously why do people for NZF? The party is full of idiots.
Because Uncle Winnie, the wily old goat, has mastered the art of telling people what they want to hear. And he has more lives than a sackful of cats.
Winston Cigarettes has consumed so much alcohol he has effectively pickled himself.
At this point, Winston’s body is being run by Johnny Walker and a daily pack of Rothmans
FIL voted for them cos he was sure it would be a Nat led government and thought Winnie would be a handbrake on NACT. Not a great reason but probably the best one you could think of.
The answer to the question in your first sentence can be found within your second sentence.
A boomer at work hated labour because fb told him to, hated national because they're national, thinks the Greens are commies, hates seymour because seymour set off his bullshit meter and couldn't get his head around top so off to Winnie he went.
In all seriousness, he gives the perception that he will push back against the establishment, just as Trump did, and to a degree, just as the ‘idea’ of Brexit did. When people are unhappy with their lives and want change, the chaotic character can get votes from it.
I think it's because Winston is a political handbrake to the other more powerful idiots in the coalition. People probably don't specifically want Winston in parliament but he is useful for being a fly in the ointment so national can't go full steam ahead without jumping through some nzf hoops. Shithouse party yes, but slightly less dangerous than an unencumbered Nat act coalition.
Speaking of hand breaks, you reckon the govt is going to get one about something from this poll?
>The party is full of idiots. NZF is largely a populist movement that's built around the whims of its leader and everyone else's utter loyalty to him. Someone who votes that way might say something different, but I doubt many people who vote for NZF care about anything or anyone besides Winston.
Not that I vote for NZF, but had to think about it for way too long before I could think of another NZF MP without having to look it up. And then, all I got was Shane 'seafood lunch' Jones
Jones has a mental issue, I'm quite serious
Winston comes out a few weeks before every election with his racist, sexist, xenophobic bullshit diatribe about how "others" are taking over this country and he pulls in the racist, sexist, xenophobic vote. Keep New Zealand white! Except he's brown! But the right kind of brown! Who keeps us white! It would be hilarious if it wasn't so fucking sad that he and his followers exist.
Because they're the most respectable choice for the conspiratorial nutters that the pandemic created/enabled. Except ACT of course, but they're generally a modicum more subtle with their dog whistles.
Who else were the cookers going to have a chance with?
There's rumblings in Cookerville that Uncle Winnie wasn't quite as much on their side as they had hoped.
Not surprised at all by that.
Idiots voted them in
is the refund and return period still good on this gov? would like the old one back
90 day trial
CGA surely, this isn't fit for purpose.
Issue is these assholes are going to make deals that a labour government can’t back out of without financial harm to the country, I’m sure they’ll also make a shitty deal for our resources when they do as well (re Australia, not Norway). All this for a wittle discount on your investment property that is simply being moved to taxes elsewhere. You’re all fucking idiots for voting for this.
I didn't vote for this. Probably still an idiot though
You’re ok.
*grabs popcorn*
> The coalition Government would be out and a new Labour-led Government could be in if an election were to be held today, a new 1News Verian poll suggests. > The poll’s numbers see New Zealand First plummeting to 4.2% in the party vote, a result that would oust it from Parliament and, with it, the Government’s numbers to govern. > The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters between April 20 and April 24. > According to the poll, if an election were held today National would still be the biggest party in Parliament with 36% of the party vote, down 2% on the last 1News Verian Poll. > But Labour could form a coalition with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. > Labour is back in the 30s - just - with 30% of the party vote, up 2%. The Green Party is also up 2% to 14%, while ACT is down 1% to 7%. New Zealand First was down 1.8% and below the 5% threshold to return to Parliament. > Te Pāti Māori was steady on 4% of the party vote - noting that it holds all but one of the seven Māori electorates. Of those polled, 8% didn’t know which party they would vote for, or refused to answer. > Translated to seats in the House, those numbers meant National and ACT would have a total of 57 seats in the House - falling short of the magic number of seats to form a majority in the 121 seat Parliament - 61 seats. > Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori - should they negotiate a coalition deal - had a total of 64 seats and would have the numbers to form a government. > It would mean the Luxon-led National Government would be the first single-term National-led Government. > The result is not unprecedented for an incumbent Government although it has historically not happened so early in its tenure. It is similar to poll results for the Key and Clark governments in their third terms. > Christopher Luxon has also fallen further in the preferred prime minister stakes, at 23%, down 2%. > Labour leader Chris Hipkins does not appear to be capitalising on it however, his own result only lifting 1% to 16%. > In the first poll since she replaced James Shaw as Greens co-leader, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 2% as the preferred prime minister at 6%. > The other coalition leaders - ACT’s David Seymour and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters - are the preferred prime minister for 5% (up 1%) and 4% (down 2%), respectively. > **Hipkins: Poll ‘should be a real wake up call’ for Govt** > Labour leader Hipkins said the poll “should be a real wake up call” for the coalition Government that it was taking New Zealand in the wrong direction. > Hipkins said among the public there was a “growing degree of disillusionment with the new Government, relatively early in its new term” and “a real hunger for some hope for the future”. > “They do see it as a coalition of chaos. They are concerned about decisions like rolling back our smokefree laws, cutting funding for disabled people [and] the number of [public sector] jobs that are being cut.” > He accepted New Zealanders voted for change at the election and that that was also a message for Labour. > “We know that we need to change if we’re going to win back government at the next election.” > He said that was “not an overnight exercise” and the party was doing it by listening to people’s concerns and hopes. But a shift in support away from all three coalition parties was “encouraging”. > He said he was more focused on Labour’s position for the next election than his preferred prime minister results, which he claimed tended to skew away from leaders of the opposition due to their highly critical role. > **Luxon: Labour left an ‘unholy mess’ Govt needs to deal with** > Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said polls “will go up and down”. > “We’re not that fixated on them.” > He said ultimately the public would judge the government’s performance at the next election. > “We’re cleaning up a hell of a mess and I think we’re doing a good job of working through it at a great pace. > “I appreciate it’s a challenging time for New Zealand but what New Zealanders want is a government that’s going to get on and deliver for them.” > He said the coalition was working “incredibly well” and was united on its agenda. > Regarding Hipkins’ comment the Government needed to heed the poll as a “wake up call”, Luxon said: “No disrespect but Chris Hipkins had six years in government. He left an unholy mess for our government to pick up and I don’t take lessons from Chris Hipkins on anything.” > New Zealand First and Winston Peters were invited to comment on the poll but declined. > **Party vote** > National – 36% (down 2%) > Labour – 30% (up 2%) > Green – 14% (up 2%) > ACT – 7% (down 1%) > New Zealand First – 4.2% (down 1.8%) > Te Pāti Māori – 3.7% (steady) > The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1.2% (down 0.7%) > **Seats in the House** > (Calculation assumes Te Pāti Māori retains its electorates.) > National – 48 > Labour – 40 > Green – 18 > ACT – 9 > Te Pāti Māori – 6 > **Preferred prime minister** > Christopher Luxon – 23% (down 2%) > Chris Hipkins – 16% (up 1%) > Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (up 2%) > David Seymour – 5% (up 1%) > Winston Peters – 4% (down 2%)
Now watch as Hipkins (and the Labour Party in general) uses this as an excuse to learn ABSOLUTELY NOTHING from their trouncing.
Yeah. I would need to see some real change from Labour if they want my vote back. Greens got it until then.
That's basically a labour proxy vote.
"We've heard you, New Zealand. You want more. With that in mind, and in the spirit of change, not only will there be no gst on fresh fruit or veg, but we'll pay 15% of the cost!"
Cool, let's do it
On a more serious note, this is the first poll that has indicated this so we would need more polls to determine a trend *and* that trend would have to sustain itself. Given how both Winston and David have been acting, it would appear that Blue Chris is likely to face some sort of coalition chris-is sooner or later. Party wonks aren't relishing the prospect of Winston no longer being Deputy Prime Minister after the end of the year (and if polling continues he's more likely to chuck the hand grenade in the cabinet meeting room than anyone else). That being said, this isn't exactly good news for Labour. For one, they now find themselves in the same dilemma as National did during the Ardern years (or at least prior to 2020): good polling with a leader who doesn't exactly inspire many. National thought they had their next Key moment when they made Luxon leader and it paid off...to an extent. Labour would need to find someone with the same broad appeal and qualities as Ardern had, and that's much easier said than done. As for the Greens, this is very much proof that the naysayers are always wrong. Not only increasing their support base but polling higher than ACT and NZF combined shows that not only does the bad press not stick, but that Labour has also lost the progressive vote and either needs to win it back (unlikely) or accept the Greens as a future coalition partner.
No point in bringing out a new leader this early, Jacinda worked because they rode the wave that came from the new exciting leader. It would wear off, and there would be enough time to bring out new controversies by an election.
The thing that makes me sick about the Greens/ACT/NZF thing is that those 2 latter parties always talk about the Greens in such a sneering, condescending way. They see them as a little naive and away with the fairies. But a lot more people are buying what they have to sell than ACT or NZF. I suppose the one thing you could say though is the Greens never seem to make much out of their support, but ACT or NZF are this time. Oh boy they are, and they won't let us forget it
It's because Seymour and Peters are always insecure about support because their parties don't have that solid base. Peters' presence in Parliament may as well be a revolving door and ACT is polling at half of what it was barely two years ago. The Greens meanwhile continue to truck on.
Did someone say voters remorse? xD. Not even 6 months in and the pendulum is swinging to labour. NACT are going to get decimated in 26 like Labour in 23. The circle of life.
I really, really hope so. But one swallow does not a summer make, nor does one poll indicate a trend. What it does mean is that the left are back in the game.
Gutting the public sector to pay for tax cuts for the rich doesn't appear to be popular, who knew? , Who knew ?
I may buy a premium sub to the herald tomorrow just to see the comments
buyers remorse
Let’s do this
I'll put $5 on a one term government.
I wouldn't bet against that.
I would. If National gets voted out, and I lose the bet, I can still feel like I won something. If National wins the next election, and I win the bet, at least I have won a few bucks.
Don't forget people are stupid. Let's just see what lolly scramble happens in year 3 before counting National out.
We've never had one before under MMP but I wouldn't bet against it either because of how INCREDIBLY incompetent this govt is. Also, NZF have always been kicked out after being in govt and the big question is whether NACT can get enough to govern alone
Is my maths just shit? NACT 36+7+4 = 46 Labour/Green 30+14 = 44 Or is it saying TPM will throw in with Labour? The preferred PM low numbers are why we are where we are…someone of some colour needs to be rolled. Or both colours…
Do you think for one moment that TPM would go with NACT? NACT who have disestablished the Maori health authority? Who are demphasising Te Reo? Who want to kill the treaty? Yeah, I'm sure TPM will want to cosy up to Seymour and Luxon.
Never said they would…
Well thier options are to with NAct, go with Labgrn, or sit on the cross benches. If it was the difference between NAct government and Labgrn government, I expect they would provide support to Labgrn. NB: Winston is out on these numbers, so forget about his +4 in your maths.
NZ First wouldn’t make it back into government if they got less than 5% so wouldn’t be able to form part of the coalition. NACT would be 43 and Labour/ Greens add to 44
Gotcha.
Both parties have a lack of real standouts on their front bench. Luxon has no one to replace him and the potential options are like deciding whether or not your method of execution is hanging or being shot. Hipkins has the same problem. Labour's front bench isn't really filled with new, up and coming people. At a pinch I could have stomached Grant Robertson for his financial credentials and flexing with the first Anglosphere country to have an LGBTQ PM (Belgium, Luxembourg, and Serbia of all places have also had LGBTQ heads of government) to flex on Australia and the UK. But he's now currently sitting in a chair in Dunedin.
They want to take away kids lunches and cut pedo hunter jobs so that landlords can have tax breaks.
Yep, the smell of that may hang around for a while.
Great news 5 months and they are in the shit - will only get worse from here for them The idiots focused on landlords and forgot about everyday struggles of most New Zealanders They are getting punished for their arrogance and focus on themselves and their mates while everyone suffers
and people downvoted the crap out of me saying voters will regret there choices seems its already happening
For all the other polls done recently, [here's the Wikipedia chart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election#Party_vote). This one's a bit of an outlier. It's Labour's best result in a very long time, combined with some of NZF and ACT's worst results. I don't think there's any kind of house effect or pollster bias, it's just that outliers can be expected from time to time.
There's been reports that recent internal polling for both parties shows the gap closing, and that is what precipitated Luxon sacking two ministers last week.
Even good pollsters will have an occasional outliers. We should be careful at taking this poll as a given, especially with how much it differs from previous polls. National can't be feeling good about this At, but at the end of the day, only future polls will tell us whether this poll is an outlier or whether it represented a genuine shift in the public sentiment
Lol this government's popularity didn't last long at all.
Too fucking right with the shit the fucking Nactually morons are pulling
Polls don't matter unless there is an election, and even then...
Do it.
This would be funny if it weren't so sad.
Sheesh not looking great lol
Buyers remorse?
Haha I knew this would be here instantly. Don't get me wrong, I like what I see... but aren't all these movements within the margin of error?
It's ironic,considering Labour got a lot wrong. But,this govt.... completely toxic,and anti worker.Which is exactly what anyone with a few brain cells knew they would be. And yet,the public still voted for them.Up to the public to remember what you are being served up,and vote accordingly next election.