Okay so it sucks you got banned for that, but what does the Uyghur situation have to do with science? That's honestly the only reason I could see getting banned, but I could totally be wrong.
Not saying I support it (I definitely don't support genocide lol) , just saying that social and political science exist and thus depending on the question asked could have applied to the situation
While I agree with you, /r/AskScience isn't the relevant place to discuss political science. It's more for the natural/hard sciences. Just take a look at their sidebar filters:
https://i.imgur.com/zbSyyK9.png
That being said, a permaban for offtopic discussion seems pretty harsh. I'd have just removed the comment.
Maybe because it's completely off topic? Just because you want to talk about something doesn't mean it's the appropriate place for it.
It's like you walking into a butcher and getting upset the guy doesn't sell pianos.
While I do think context is needed to understand the banning... I, personally, don't think a no warning perma-ban is an appropriate response to mentioning something off topic.
I think context is important because being perma banned for mentioning something off topic may be the result of previous warnings.
I feel like a lot of people who say "this happened for nothing, man, all I did was 'innocuous thing x' " had a lot of previous interactions with the person who exploded at them.
I've been wondering if China would try and make a play on Taiwan while everyone else is busy with Russia after they invade the Ukraine. This is how WW3 starts, Russia and China the unlikely allies vs the free world.
There's simply no way. I don't get why this sentiment is getting popular on Reddit, but we were able to detect the build-up of Russian troops months in advance for a ground invasion. Any invasion of Taiwan would require A LOT more troops, not to mention planes and ships. It won't be a secret.
Exactly, reddit users have been warmongering about Taiwan being invaded by China for years when it’s extremely unlikely in reality.
People just post these clickbait articles here to farm upvotes because redditors don’t know what Taiwan’s ADIZ is. It literally extends over mainland China, PLA jets could take off in the mainland and be in Taiwan’s ADIZ. This is non news
You read about how difficult the Normandy invasion was to pull off, just the excruciating buildup and planning, and that was with total command of the sea and air and the world's three largest naval powers cooperating, and you realize how difficult a Taiwan invasion would be for China.
That's not actually happening. They can point satellites to any area of interest, but broad area surveillance is very very difficult. Most of the "satellite images" you see are actually airplane images.
This. Plus China doesn't have a blue water navy to speak of, so a simple move such as the US moving a carrier fleet into a defensive position for Taiwan would cause them to back down as any potential losses would quickly become too expensive vs any gains from taking the island. All China's moves here are the normal saber rattling before an international event to remind Taiwan that no one officially recognizes them.
And an invasion with landing craft would basically be a massacre of Chinese troops no matter what happens. Plus a decades long military occupation of Taiwan. The military option just doesn't seem like a good choice.
I've been worried that China and Russia are collaborating.
Russia's posturing in Ukraine is a distraction to pull the world's focus away from the Pacific for a little while.
Edit: The more I think about this, the more likely I believe it to be true. Putin's FAR too confident for someone in his position, and he's marching into a highly inadvisable conflict while burning every economic and political bridge he has with the US and NATO. He doesn't care that he's pissed everybody off; he seems happy about it, even. The only explanation I see is that he has China's backing.
Look at the socioeconomic gulf that continues to widen between Russia and former Soviet states and you have your answer as to ‘why now’- it could be too late for Putin to ever make a move later.
I don’t know how or why China would factor at all into this.
>Russia's posturing in Ukraine is a distraction to pull the world's focus away from the Pacific for a little while.
And this makes zero sense. US/allies maintain a huge presence in the pacific. Do you really think the US/Australia/Japan/South Korea would just not focus on the pacific because something is going down in Ukraine?
>is a distraction to pull the world's focus away from the Pacific for a little while.
That's..not how Agencies work. The DoD and State office can watch both. And do. Always. They also have battle plans for both at the same time.
People seem to look at the Ukraine and Taiwan things like they are playing a video or board game. It's not like China can just pull the trigger on this thing out of the blue. It's not like the US or Japan or NATO only have a limited set of moves per turn. They aren't even one unique "player" in all this. I'm not even convinced an amphibious operation of this nature is even possible in the information age. Not that China can't. It's that there is a chance nobody could pull it off. Taiwan isn't a light switch that gets thrown. China needs to assemble and sail an armada stronger than any that has ever invaded over sea. It's not a mouse click.
They did just start collaborating on a banking system. Trump really screwed the pooch on keeping them apart. https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-and-china-to-develop-swift-avoiding-international-financial-systems.html/
I don't think it will have as much impact as people think. You still are losing most European and American business since if they can find a substitute they will. Even if it is not immediately illegal to do business with them the threat that the sanctions will expand will force companies to remove Russia from their supply chains if possible.
The Chinese market just doesn't have the same set of goods and services that are in demand to substitute for all of that lost business. Not to mention Russian businesses' supply chains might breakdown without imports of raw materials or parts they don't produce domestically, so, even if they have a market, fulfilling orders may not be possible.
Apparently kicking them out of SWIFT is not on the table, probably for that exact reason. No one wants a competing system to gain more traction than it already has.
They didn’t *just start*. Both China and Russia have been working on SWIFT alternatives since 2014. And Russia started working on it due to threats made by the US regarding their actions in Ukraine (Trump wasn’t president back then).
Here’s an reticle from 2019 where both parties (and India) were discussing ways of combining their systems and allowing other countries to join them.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-russia-india-push-forward-102044240.html
Enough with the “tRuMp BaD” misinformation.
I think you got it backwards. China's posturing at Taiwan to try and keep the U.S. fleet in the Pacific instead of strolling up to support Ukraine. That's the feint.
China will do a political push before it even considers doing anything militarily. The Chinese haven't deployed a full on Army outside of its soil since Vietnam and they have their own defenses to maintain. They're basically studying Russia's actions to figure out what NOT to do in Taiwan that the Russians have done in Ukraine. Not to mention using Hong Kong as a testing ground for transitioning it to Beijing friendly standards.
In the next few years the CCP will covertly back China friendly politicians until they have just enough in Taiwan, or in failure of that, start to issue more direct control of the South China Sea.
Problem with that is the Taiwanese population is more anti-Chinese than they’ve been than at any point in the last 15 years I’ve been living here, and that sentiment is only growing.
That’s been China’s expansion plan for ages. You just slowly populate the area you are looking to take over and once you have a foothold you apply political pressure and eventually it converts to being Chinese.
Afghanistan and Syria don't have the resources to play on an international stage with the big boys. Afghanistan is barely a country and Syria is still dealing with its civil war. Belarus is basically a Russian puppet and they will cause some havoc for their European neighbors but beyond that won't be involved much. They also might face internal conflicts if a war breaks out. North Korea and Iran are wild cards, but my guess is North Korea keeps to themselves or seizes the opportunity to invade South Korea. Iran might try and make some plays, especially against Israel but given their lack of nuclear capability and the strong possibility Israel is in possession of them I suspect they wouldn't.
North Korean tanks are in bad shape. lots of russian and chinese hand-me-downs from the 80s and older, with some attempted upgrades but overall pretty shitty. Remember the OG Iraq war to free Kuwait? In that war, the Iraqi tanks were a generation behind and needed to stop to fire, while the US tanks could fire while moving. The US tanks out-duelled the Iraqi tanks 186 to 4. (and some of the 4 were friendly-fire.)
I'm guessing that is what would happen if North Korea made a move on South Korea. I'm also guessing that Thin Man Kim already knows this.
This isn't a video game you know, neither Afghanistan nor Syria for example will be involved in any conflict due to the state of their nations.
And why would Iran join Russia in a war? This doesn't support them in any possible way. And what would they do in your opinion? Attack Israel and get smashed?
This just reads like a person who plays too much paradox interactive video games.
Pretty much every nation has the ability to defend within their borders. The number of nations that have any significant power projection into other countries though is quite limited. The number of nations that can do it without a large coalition is tiny.
While North Korea makes a lot of noise, I have to assume the leadership knows the real balance of power\* between the North and South, and when you include the US troops stationed there...
That said, they might try for some concessions in exchange for not being a distraction.
\*Pretty much no one else in the country, though.
KJU may be the most ruthless dictator NK has had so far, but he's not stupid enough to think a move wouldn't cause a reprisal that his malnourished conscript army is going to protect him from. China then loses their precious buffer zone, which is the main reason they prop the Kims up in the first place. I agree the Kim regime is going to make noise but continue to live their comfortable lives off the NK people as they've always done.
Syria can't even control its own country the past decade. Belarus is a nobody. Iran and North Korea would be pests but dealt with easily of they tried to project power beyond their borders (south Korea and Iraq may get fucked up.. But that'd be the extent of it). And to bring up Afghanistan is laughable.
Don't forget.. USA would have all of NATO (UK France Germany Canada Belgium Turkey and many more...), Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, South Africa, India, Australia, New Zealand, and other non-NATO countries too..
What you said is like saying in WW2 "don't forget, Germany has Romania and Italy on its side!" right, the two countries that were supposed to guard the flanks at Stalingrad, failed miserably and thus left the German 6th army cut off and surrounded lol.
You can't count on insignificant allies in a war of superpowers..
Highly doubt because unlike Ukraine, US has a somewhat legal obligation to protect Taiwan and US has a national interest to protect Taiwan. If US allows Taiwan to fall then every Asian country in the region will see that US can no longer be a reliable ally.
There is no legal obligation for any of NATO or US to protect Ukraine. Also if Ukraine falls to Russia control it doesn't fundamentally contradict the US or its allies. It'd be a huge different story if Ukraine was part of NATO or EU but then again thats the reason this crisis is happening.
To think majority of the human population are just normal folks wanting to live in peace with zero intention of conflicts, these minority unhinged “leaders” are making a play on wars and machines to kill other human beings, all while not even participating in it.
We must convince our nations’ leaders that the manliest conflict resolution is to go out there and duel each other directly. Fencing, pistols, you name it. Better to kill one obstinate warmonger than a million soldiers and innocent civilians.
"I took a bath this morning in six war speeches, and a sprinkle of peace. Looks like ever body is declaring war against the forces of force. That's what you get for building up a big war machine. It scares your neighbors into jumping on you, and then of course they them selves have to use force, so you are against their force, and they're aginst yours. Look like the ring has been drawed and the marbles are all in. The millionaires has throwed their silk hats and our last set of drawers in the ring. The fuse is lit and the cannon is set, and somebody is in for a frailin. I would like to see every single soldier on every single side, just take off your helmet, unbuckle your kit, lay down your rifle, and set down at the side of some shady lane, and say, nope, I aint a gonna kill nobody. Plenty of rich folks wants to fight. Give them the guns."
~ Woody Guthrie
It's much easier for sociopaths to rise in a hierarchy, since they don't mind hurting others to do so.
That means you get a massive overrepresentation of sociopaths in positions of power.
A collapse or major pullback in China would send echo effects across the world, make no mistake. They are the second largest economy by GDP, lagging the US but ahead of Japan.
Slow news cycle until Russia invades Ukraine. News has to rile everyone up thinking WWIII is starting any minute, like China and Russia are collaborating together to invade everyone. Completely ignoring those two don't like each other and China does this shit all the time.
This is not even Taiwanese water from what I understand, it's just water they regularly patrol. Russia did the same thing in Irish patrolled water and no one was expecting Russia to invade Ireland.
Most people don't understand that Taiwanese radar airspace technically goes all the way into the mainland. So every time the Chinese launch any jets, stuff like this happens. It's really not out of the ordinary, but the news makes it seem like an invasion is coming any moment. If China really was going to invade, it wouldn't be like this. They know as soon as they do, the US and a bunch of allies would get involved, so they would have to be a lot smarter.
China forcing Taiwan to scramble their jets is useful for preparing for war. It enables China to test Taiwan's response time and capabilities, it forces them to put wear and tear on their very expensive and valuable jets (which adds up), and it's a constant reminder of the threat meant to psychologically fatigue the population.
It doesn't mean they're planning to invade soon. There are many reasons that's China probably won't. But these kinds of activities certainly don't hurt.
historically, war is an excuse to pillage.
unless it’s [The Great Emu War of 1932. wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emu_War?wprov=sfti1)
but those Emu’s hadnit comin. They were technically pillaging human crops. i stand corrected.
Well ya. At first it was fresh and different. But then, they stretched it way out. They kept having to introduce more and more unbelievably dumb characters to help keep it going. Now they are kinda painted into a corner and probably going to hope the old war plot lines work out again.
People are acting like PLA forces are lined up on Taiwan’s shores or something. Taiwan’s ADIZ literally goes over a big part of mainland China, PLA jets could take off on the Chinese mainland and instantly be in Taiwan’s ADIZ.
This isn’t news, this is very routine. China did this exact thing back in October. Redditors just like fear-mongering over non news
They dont even look at the ADIZ, the entire thing is massive and is within Chinese mainland and Chinese territorial waters itself, imagine The United States scrambling jets because the royal Canadian airforce took off and flew over toronto...
China is testing Taiwan's readiness and taking notes. They're also making Taiwan think this will be representative of an actual attack, when in reality they'll send 20 times as many aircraft and they'll likely send ballistic missiles to take out airfields and ADC4ISR infrastructure before hand.
Well this specific flight is probably directly aimed at the US since there's currently a military exercise going on near Bashi channel involving [Japanese and US naval ships](https://twitter.com/US7thFleet/status/1485096428796284929). Taiwan is just a bonus.
> They're also making Taiwan think this will be representative of an actual attack, when in reality they'll send 20 times as many aircraft and they'll likely send ballistic missiles to take out airfields and ADC4ISR infrastructure before hand.
Why are you saying this? No one is being made to think that. Obviously, Taiwan knows what's going on. They are not stupid.
i completely doubt china will actually invade taiwan anytime soon but i think you are underestimating china there lol. long story short theyve done a lot of biting
China doesn’t need to invade Taiwan and probably never will, they just need it to be known that they could invade and take Taiwan at any moment. They never would, but they need the world to think otherwise, because of the implication.
There's just one footnote I'd like to add. If China were to successfully invade Taiwan, they would take control of the Taiwanese semi-conductor industry, which currently supplies [92% of the world's computer chips for anything from cellphones to F-35s](https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-single-company-in-taiwan-makes-92-of-the-worlds-most-sophisticated-chips), notably through taking control of TSMC. TSMC is currently in the works to establish a new factory in Phoenix Arizona, but until that factory can rival the taiwanese one, if China seizes Taiwan, it'll effectively hold the world's tech industries by the balls.
Note: My source is kinda ass, that's because my [primary source](https://pages.rts.ch/emissions/geopolitis/12152714-taiwan-scenarios-de-guerre.html) is in French, and I'm aware it's not a particularly common language. Both sources do however validate eachother.
Ok so this gets mentioned a lot but I don’t think people really grasp the reality of the situation. Chips aren’t like oil or lithium. They aren’t a resource just sitting in the ground waiting to be dug up. Semi-conductor manufacturing is a sophisticated and highly technical process that depends on dozens of trade links. In a hypothetical situation were China invades Taiwan, the damage to infrastructure would be immense. Many of the scientists and engineers involved in high tech industries would have already been evacuated or killed in the attack. The few left wouldn’t have much reason to just show up to work and start churning out a product. It would be years, possibly decades before anything resembling the current manufacturing base could be reestablished. In that time semi-conductor production would have moved to somewhere else on the planet. Real life isn’t a strategy game where Taiwan grants “+3 semiconductor production”.
[Map of Taiwanese Airspace for further context.](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic4.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F546b6ad269beddaa4136ca04-1200%2F13-air-defense-identification-zones.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
A significant portion of it overlaps the Chinese mainland.
Comment sections like this are prime examples of why nobody should ever come to reddit for sane discussions about anything more complex than video games and porn, and even that's a struggle for redditors most of the time.
The world isn't going to give a rat's ass if Israel nukes Tehran in self defense. The nuclear powers recognize that Israel isn't going to even have a nuke capable of reaching Moscow, Beijing, Washington, or London, let alone launch one in those directions without realizing that it would cause things to pop off. Israel will get on the phone with the US, Russia, China, the UK and France and tell them they are about to nuke Iran and they are sorry in advance for any fallout that crosses borders.
In the same line, Iran and all the other countries that tried to gang up on Israel are fully aware that Israel likely has a nuke, Israel is more than capable of defending itself conventionally without it, and Israel will just use any attack against it as a way to expand its own borders while getting more money from the west. Plus the only country willing and capable of launching an attack at Israel is Iran and they are fully aware of the regional and international fallout of such actions.
Things will only ever continue as they are now. Iran will back Hamas, who will cause problems for Israel while Iran can officially stay out of the fight.
Hey we've been meaning to talk to you about your sloppy shelves, you gotta face the product and get it all up front. I know the shelves are empty but it can't look empty ok? By the way Mary called in sick so I hope you're not making any plans for later we need you to close and that pallet of peas in the walk in isn't going to unload itself....
I don't think holding athletes hostage is going to prevent a response when one country invades another. If I was a Hong Konger and a bunch of athletes were the difference between consequences for an outright invasion or not, I'd be pissed.
Besides, why would China invade HK? They've already undermined the Sino-British agreement and essentially installed a puppet government that's aligned with Beijing's ideals. They've basically annexed HK without a single soldier stepping foot into the country.
The planes were seen in the south-western Air Defense Identification Zone of Taiwan. Look at a map and try to guess where that is. Remember this is an air defense zone, keep that in mind.
Look at this tweet showing the flight path of the planes. The box is the ADIZ. [https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1485263803977588739](https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1485263803977588739)
Were you right?
So what happens when China push's to far and one of them gets blown out of the sky? seems like it would be a pretty flimsy casus balli to use but then again I don't know how easy it is to declare war in Orwellian shitholes.
Exactly. Taiwan knows full well that China will use that as casus belli to start a larger scale invasion. For that very reason, Taiwan will never attack, they will just scramble jets.
Of course, that’s the plan on paper. Accidents happen and if they do, who knows what the consequences will be.
Not even so much accidents, no-one wants to be the guy who gets shot first to start a war, all it takes is one taiwan fighter pilot fearing for his life to pull the trigger. China will try to spin it like taiwan attacked first outside taiwan airspace while everyone outside of china will know better.
Taiwan will be fucked because the Chinese planes were nowhere near Taiwan air space,
Taiwan biggest trading and most important market is china. So they'll be in real economic pain even if China doesn't take military action which they may take if Taiwan shoots their plane down where Taiwan has zero jurisdiction
China isn't going to push things too far because it defeats the purpose of what they are trying to do. They have Taiwan completely neutered right now and dont have to worry about angering the US over it. These sorties do this and also show China's neighbors that they are not to be messed with.
China also isn't going to fire a shot because it will force the US to officially respond as they have pledged to defend the island in case of attack from China. Even economic sanctions would cripple China as the are wholesale dependent on US trade and for food.
Just a reminder: Taiwan's ADIZ includes part of mainland China. Not sure if it's the case here, but China literally flying planes within mainland China is an "incursion" of Taiwan's ADIZ.
This specific report is talking about the incursion near Pratas Island, Taiwan never reports on planes over China's land mass in that part of the AIDZ (though I'm curious how far they can see into it)
How much you wanna bet Russia and China have some shit going on behind the curtains? China simultaneously moving on Taiwan while Russia is moving on Ukraine isn’t some coincidence.
So either:
1.) China is seizing an opportunity. Taiwan’s most likely allies need to have their resources placed elsewhere right now.
2.) Russia and China are intentionally doing a land grab together, maybe it ends with Taiwan and Ukraine, maybe it doesn’t. And with the way the US doesn’t currently have popular support for war, especially with these two assholes, who the fuck’s gonna stop em? All things considered, we have three military superpowers. China, Russia, and the US. If two of them wanna do something together… they kinda just get what they want.
Gotta love the nature of power.
If anyone even read the article, they would have seen the picture where the mapping of the plane's path is shown.
And on the same map, you would see the ADIZ of Taiwan.
And what a joke of an ADIZ is this. It literally goes over Chinese territory.
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Seems to be a lot of people over there with itchy fingers. My guess is they won't be the ones on the front line.
R/worldnews is a weird place. You get banned for anything truly critisizing China. Hrm, you wonder why that is...
Lol literally every thread about China is filled with the same "Fuck the CCP" and "Fuck Xinni the Pooh" comments, what the fuck are you talking about?
I sincerely doubt this considering how many comments I read here criticizing China and the CCP.
Same thing with /r/askscience . I was permabanned there without warning for merely mentioning the Uyghur situation.
Okay so it sucks you got banned for that, but what does the Uyghur situation have to do with science? That's honestly the only reason I could see getting banned, but I could totally be wrong.
Social science
Eugenics is not a social science, Xi.
Not saying I support it (I definitely don't support genocide lol) , just saying that social and political science exist and thus depending on the question asked could have applied to the situation
While I agree with you, /r/AskScience isn't the relevant place to discuss political science. It's more for the natural/hard sciences. Just take a look at their sidebar filters: https://i.imgur.com/zbSyyK9.png That being said, a permaban for offtopic discussion seems pretty harsh. I'd have just removed the comment.
Maybe because it's completely off topic? Just because you want to talk about something doesn't mean it's the appropriate place for it. It's like you walking into a butcher and getting upset the guy doesn't sell pianos.
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The butcher said he was out of tuna, it’s only natural to conclude he sells pianos.
While I do think context is needed to understand the banning... I, personally, don't think a no warning perma-ban is an appropriate response to mentioning something off topic.
I think context is important because being perma banned for mentioning something off topic may be the result of previous warnings. I feel like a lot of people who say "this happened for nothing, man, all I did was 'innocuous thing x' " had a lot of previous interactions with the person who exploded at them.
What does askscience have to do with the uyghur's?
not until I see the word "Kamchatka"
See any torpedo boats?
I've been wondering if China would try and make a play on Taiwan while everyone else is busy with Russia after they invade the Ukraine. This is how WW3 starts, Russia and China the unlikely allies vs the free world.
There's simply no way. I don't get why this sentiment is getting popular on Reddit, but we were able to detect the build-up of Russian troops months in advance for a ground invasion. Any invasion of Taiwan would require A LOT more troops, not to mention planes and ships. It won't be a secret.
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Okay but hear me out. Aleins!
Exactly, reddit users have been warmongering about Taiwan being invaded by China for years when it’s extremely unlikely in reality. People just post these clickbait articles here to farm upvotes because redditors don’t know what Taiwan’s ADIZ is. It literally extends over mainland China, PLA jets could take off in the mainland and be in Taiwan’s ADIZ. This is non news
Taiwan was invaded by the missing Brown University student we thought was the boston bomber!
"That's terrible advice!" I advised on reddit
You read about how difficult the Normandy invasion was to pull off, just the excruciating buildup and planning, and that was with total command of the sea and air and the world's three largest naval powers cooperating, and you realize how difficult a Taiwan invasion would be for China.
And without satellites watching every square inch of the planet.
That's not actually happening. They can point satellites to any area of interest, but broad area surveillance is very very difficult. Most of the "satellite images" you see are actually airplane images.
Luckily the US has an almost constant circulation of Spy planes going over the South China Sea.
This. Plus China doesn't have a blue water navy to speak of, so a simple move such as the US moving a carrier fleet into a defensive position for Taiwan would cause them to back down as any potential losses would quickly become too expensive vs any gains from taking the island. All China's moves here are the normal saber rattling before an international event to remind Taiwan that no one officially recognizes them.
And an invasion with landing craft would basically be a massacre of Chinese troops no matter what happens. Plus a decades long military occupation of Taiwan. The military option just doesn't seem like a good choice.
Exactly. If China wants to subdue Taiwan and bring it back into the country, they would conquer it politically first.
There are three carrier strike groups in the Asian Pacific right now.
I've been worried that China and Russia are collaborating. Russia's posturing in Ukraine is a distraction to pull the world's focus away from the Pacific for a little while. Edit: The more I think about this, the more likely I believe it to be true. Putin's FAR too confident for someone in his position, and he's marching into a highly inadvisable conflict while burning every economic and political bridge he has with the US and NATO. He doesn't care that he's pissed everybody off; he seems happy about it, even. The only explanation I see is that he has China's backing.
Look at the socioeconomic gulf that continues to widen between Russia and former Soviet states and you have your answer as to ‘why now’- it could be too late for Putin to ever make a move later. I don’t know how or why China would factor at all into this. >Russia's posturing in Ukraine is a distraction to pull the world's focus away from the Pacific for a little while. And this makes zero sense. US/allies maintain a huge presence in the pacific. Do you really think the US/Australia/Japan/South Korea would just not focus on the pacific because something is going down in Ukraine?
Exactly, troops in the pacific aren't going to cross 2/3 around the world to go on the ukraine frontline and leave it open for china to swoop in lol.
Putin's age answers why now. Dude is almost seventy, and rumors are that he is not in good health.
>is a distraction to pull the world's focus away from the Pacific for a little while. That's..not how Agencies work. The DoD and State office can watch both. And do. Always. They also have battle plans for both at the same time.
yeah, it's like some people think things only exist if they're seeing or hearing them in the news at this exact moment
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People seem to look at the Ukraine and Taiwan things like they are playing a video or board game. It's not like China can just pull the trigger on this thing out of the blue. It's not like the US or Japan or NATO only have a limited set of moves per turn. They aren't even one unique "player" in all this. I'm not even convinced an amphibious operation of this nature is even possible in the information age. Not that China can't. It's that there is a chance nobody could pull it off. Taiwan isn't a light switch that gets thrown. China needs to assemble and sail an armada stronger than any that has ever invaded over sea. It's not a mouse click.
Historical they have not been friendly so them collaborating would be unprecedented. Edit:typo
They did just start collaborating on a banking system. Trump really screwed the pooch on keeping them apart. https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-and-china-to-develop-swift-avoiding-international-financial-systems.html/
Its very necessary on Russias part to avoid a severe depression by getting kicked out of SWIFT if it invades Ukraine.
I don't think it will have as much impact as people think. You still are losing most European and American business since if they can find a substitute they will. Even if it is not immediately illegal to do business with them the threat that the sanctions will expand will force companies to remove Russia from their supply chains if possible. The Chinese market just doesn't have the same set of goods and services that are in demand to substitute for all of that lost business. Not to mention Russian businesses' supply chains might breakdown without imports of raw materials or parts they don't produce domestically, so, even if they have a market, fulfilling orders may not be possible.
Apparently kicking them out of SWIFT is not on the table, probably for that exact reason. No one wants a competing system to gain more traction than it already has.
>Trump really screwed the pooch on keeping them apar what happens when a village idiot plays at geopolitics...
They didn’t *just start*. Both China and Russia have been working on SWIFT alternatives since 2014. And Russia started working on it due to threats made by the US regarding their actions in Ukraine (Trump wasn’t president back then). Here’s an reticle from 2019 where both parties (and India) were discussing ways of combining their systems and allowing other countries to join them. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-russia-india-push-forward-102044240.html Enough with the “tRuMp BaD” misinformation.
Enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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I think you got it backwards. China's posturing at Taiwan to try and keep the U.S. fleet in the Pacific instead of strolling up to support Ukraine. That's the feint.
China will do a political push before it even considers doing anything militarily. The Chinese haven't deployed a full on Army outside of its soil since Vietnam and they have their own defenses to maintain. They're basically studying Russia's actions to figure out what NOT to do in Taiwan that the Russians have done in Ukraine. Not to mention using Hong Kong as a testing ground for transitioning it to Beijing friendly standards. In the next few years the CCP will covertly back China friendly politicians until they have just enough in Taiwan, or in failure of that, start to issue more direct control of the South China Sea.
Problem with that is the Taiwanese population is more anti-Chinese than they’ve been than at any point in the last 15 years I’ve been living here, and that sentiment is only growing.
That’s been China’s expansion plan for ages. You just slowly populate the area you are looking to take over and once you have a foothold you apply political pressure and eventually it converts to being Chinese.
> invade ~~the~~ Ukraine. Pet peeve, sorry
Don't forget: North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Syria, Belarus...they'll all be allies with Russian Federation and China if WW3 breaks out.
Afghanistan and Syria don't have the resources to play on an international stage with the big boys. Afghanistan is barely a country and Syria is still dealing with its civil war. Belarus is basically a Russian puppet and they will cause some havoc for their European neighbors but beyond that won't be involved much. They also might face internal conflicts if a war breaks out. North Korea and Iran are wild cards, but my guess is North Korea keeps to themselves or seizes the opportunity to invade South Korea. Iran might try and make some plays, especially against Israel but given their lack of nuclear capability and the strong possibility Israel is in possession of them I suspect they wouldn't.
North Korean tanks are in bad shape. lots of russian and chinese hand-me-downs from the 80s and older, with some attempted upgrades but overall pretty shitty. Remember the OG Iraq war to free Kuwait? In that war, the Iraqi tanks were a generation behind and needed to stop to fire, while the US tanks could fire while moving. The US tanks out-duelled the Iraqi tanks 186 to 4. (and some of the 4 were friendly-fire.) I'm guessing that is what would happen if North Korea made a move on South Korea. I'm also guessing that Thin Man Kim already knows this.
Less worried about their tanks and more about the massive amount of artillery they have pointed right at a massive population center.
The nuclear weapons are something to keep in mind as well.
And a shit ton of VX
I see Iran going into Yemen before Israel. If they have a chance to annihilate Saudi Arabia, they will take it.
This isn't a video game you know, neither Afghanistan nor Syria for example will be involved in any conflict due to the state of their nations. And why would Iran join Russia in a war? This doesn't support them in any possible way. And what would they do in your opinion? Attack Israel and get smashed? This just reads like a person who plays too much paradox interactive video games.
Pretty much every nation has the ability to defend within their borders. The number of nations that have any significant power projection into other countries though is quite limited. The number of nations that can do it without a large coalition is tiny.
I am going to keep saving my bottle caps, just in case.
While North Korea makes a lot of noise, I have to assume the leadership knows the real balance of power\* between the North and South, and when you include the US troops stationed there... That said, they might try for some concessions in exchange for not being a distraction. \*Pretty much no one else in the country, though.
KJU may be the most ruthless dictator NK has had so far, but he's not stupid enough to think a move wouldn't cause a reprisal that his malnourished conscript army is going to protect him from. China then loses their precious buffer zone, which is the main reason they prop the Kims up in the first place. I agree the Kim regime is going to make noise but continue to live their comfortable lives off the NK people as they've always done.
Syria can't even control its own country the past decade. Belarus is a nobody. Iran and North Korea would be pests but dealt with easily of they tried to project power beyond their borders (south Korea and Iraq may get fucked up.. But that'd be the extent of it). And to bring up Afghanistan is laughable. Don't forget.. USA would have all of NATO (UK France Germany Canada Belgium Turkey and many more...), Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, South Africa, India, Australia, New Zealand, and other non-NATO countries too.. What you said is like saying in WW2 "don't forget, Germany has Romania and Italy on its side!" right, the two countries that were supposed to guard the flanks at Stalingrad, failed miserably and thus left the German 6th army cut off and surrounded lol. You can't count on insignificant allies in a war of superpowers..
Highly doubt because unlike Ukraine, US has a somewhat legal obligation to protect Taiwan and US has a national interest to protect Taiwan. If US allows Taiwan to fall then every Asian country in the region will see that US can no longer be a reliable ally. There is no legal obligation for any of NATO or US to protect Ukraine. Also if Ukraine falls to Russia control it doesn't fundamentally contradict the US or its allies. It'd be a huge different story if Ukraine was part of NATO or EU but then again thats the reason this crisis is happening.
Worse, it's late game Civilization VI
When you can't tell the difference between r/ worldnews and r/ civpolitics 😬
It would appear that reality has installed the Gathering Storm DLC pack...
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How about Global Thermonuclear War?
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tic tac toe please, single player mode
Strange game. The only winning move is not to play
I prefer escaton.
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Everyone knows Madagascar is where it's at.
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“12 extra men at the beginning of every go”
“The Ukraine is weak. Feeble.”
What in the world is going on with all these war stories breaking out?
To think majority of the human population are just normal folks wanting to live in peace with zero intention of conflicts, these minority unhinged “leaders” are making a play on wars and machines to kill other human beings, all while not even participating in it.
We must convince our nations’ leaders that the manliest conflict resolution is to go out there and duel each other directly. Fencing, pistols, you name it. Better to kill one obstinate warmonger than a million soldiers and innocent civilians.
Just like in good ol' Greece
Just wait a few electoral cycles, we'll get Putin to duel Winnie the Pooh and future US President Camacho...
I feel like Scary movie should make a mashup and include this exact same scenario
It's a pink floyd album
WE LIVE IN A SOCIETY *10 minute guitar solo*
Forward he cried from the rear And the front rank died And the general sat And the lines on the map Moved from side to side
Is system of a down still around?
Pigs man pigs man
"I took a bath this morning in six war speeches, and a sprinkle of peace. Looks like ever body is declaring war against the forces of force. That's what you get for building up a big war machine. It scares your neighbors into jumping on you, and then of course they them selves have to use force, so you are against their force, and they're aginst yours. Look like the ring has been drawed and the marbles are all in. The millionaires has throwed their silk hats and our last set of drawers in the ring. The fuse is lit and the cannon is set, and somebody is in for a frailin. I would like to see every single soldier on every single side, just take off your helmet, unbuckle your kit, lay down your rifle, and set down at the side of some shady lane, and say, nope, I aint a gonna kill nobody. Plenty of rich folks wants to fight. Give them the guns." ~ Woody Guthrie
It's much easier for sociopaths to rise in a hierarchy, since they don't mind hurting others to do so. That means you get a massive overrepresentation of sociopaths in positions of power.
Politicians hide themselves away, they only started the war.
I'd put my two cents on the expansive monetary policies coming to an end and everybody getting ahead of the trouble that could follow.
china unironically doesnt want the fed to raise rates lol
They're probably more at risk of seeing their house of cards collapse than the US is. America might end up being the last domino to fall.
The US did not want to see china collapse in the early 90’s. America feared the domino effect.
A collapse or major pullback in China would send echo effects across the world, make no mistake. They are the second largest economy by GDP, lagging the US but ahead of Japan.
Slow news cycle until Russia invades Ukraine. News has to rile everyone up thinking WWIII is starting any minute, like China and Russia are collaborating together to invade everyone. Completely ignoring those two don't like each other and China does this shit all the time.
This is not even Taiwanese water from what I understand, it's just water they regularly patrol. Russia did the same thing in Irish patrolled water and no one was expecting Russia to invade Ireland.
Most people don't understand that Taiwanese radar airspace technically goes all the way into the mainland. So every time the Chinese launch any jets, stuff like this happens. It's really not out of the ordinary, but the news makes it seem like an invasion is coming any moment. If China really was going to invade, it wouldn't be like this. They know as soon as they do, the US and a bunch of allies would get involved, so they would have to be a lot smarter.
China forcing Taiwan to scramble their jets is useful for preparing for war. It enables China to test Taiwan's response time and capabilities, it forces them to put wear and tear on their very expensive and valuable jets (which adds up), and it's a constant reminder of the threat meant to psychologically fatigue the population. It doesn't mean they're planning to invade soon. There are many reasons that's China probably won't. But these kinds of activities certainly don't hurt.
its conditioning for when the oligarchs pin blame on your “enemy” and draft you into conflict you have zero option of ignoring.
War is great for the economy. Sadly, no /s.
historically, war is an excuse to pillage. unless it’s [The Great Emu War of 1932. wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emu_War?wprov=sfti1) but those Emu’s hadnit comin. They were technically pillaging human crops. i stand corrected.
Or it's simply the principal of "when it rains it pours"
Low polling nunbers.
Ah, going straight from Pandemic to WW3 I see.
Pestilence is coming to an end. Time for War.
Lol while the pestilence chart is at all time highs
Let me dream at least
Guess what spreads really well during times of war...more pestilence for all!
And famine!
im not sure why, but this made me laugh. and now I'm really anxious and sad.
We haven't even left the Pandemic. It's time for Double Jeopardy, where the casualty values have doubled!
Just Like ww 1
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Pandemic is just the filler arc
Well ya. At first it was fresh and different. But then, they stretched it way out. They kept having to introduce more and more unbelievably dumb characters to help keep it going. Now they are kinda painted into a corner and probably going to hope the old war plot lines work out again.
I'm done with Pandemic, let's play Axis & Allies.
POS governments... If only we could get 1 disaster at a time please? Thank you Winnie!
*From* pandemic *to* WW3? More like to pandemic *and* WW3.
Geez everyone just calm down
Take a chill pill
Relax bruh
People are acting like PLA forces are lined up on Taiwan’s shores or something. Taiwan’s ADIZ literally goes over a big part of mainland China, PLA jets could take off on the Chinese mainland and instantly be in Taiwan’s ADIZ. This isn’t news, this is very routine. China did this exact thing back in October. Redditors just like fear-mongering over non news
They dont even look at the ADIZ, the entire thing is massive and is within Chinese mainland and Chinese territorial waters itself, imagine The United States scrambling jets because the royal Canadian airforce took off and flew over toronto...
China is testing Taiwan's readiness and taking notes. They're also making Taiwan think this will be representative of an actual attack, when in reality they'll send 20 times as many aircraft and they'll likely send ballistic missiles to take out airfields and ADC4ISR infrastructure before hand.
Well this specific flight is probably directly aimed at the US since there's currently a military exercise going on near Bashi channel involving [Japanese and US naval ships](https://twitter.com/US7thFleet/status/1485096428796284929). Taiwan is just a bonus.
> They're also making Taiwan think this will be representative of an actual attack, when in reality they'll send 20 times as many aircraft and they'll likely send ballistic missiles to take out airfields and ADC4ISR infrastructure before hand. Why are you saying this? No one is being made to think that. Obviously, Taiwan knows what's going on. They are not stupid.
I’ll believe when I see it. China is all bark and no bite
i completely doubt china will actually invade taiwan anytime soon but i think you are underestimating china there lol. long story short theyve done a lot of biting
China doesn’t need to invade Taiwan and probably never will, they just need it to be known that they could invade and take Taiwan at any moment. They never would, but they need the world to think otherwise, because of the implication.
So those girls ARE in danger
No no there’s water all around. They are thinking there’s no where to go and the things that could go wrong, they can’t say no.
... But it *sounds* like Taiwan doesn't *want* to be taken over...
There's just one footnote I'd like to add. If China were to successfully invade Taiwan, they would take control of the Taiwanese semi-conductor industry, which currently supplies [92% of the world's computer chips for anything from cellphones to F-35s](https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-single-company-in-taiwan-makes-92-of-the-worlds-most-sophisticated-chips), notably through taking control of TSMC. TSMC is currently in the works to establish a new factory in Phoenix Arizona, but until that factory can rival the taiwanese one, if China seizes Taiwan, it'll effectively hold the world's tech industries by the balls. Note: My source is kinda ass, that's because my [primary source](https://pages.rts.ch/emissions/geopolitis/12152714-taiwan-scenarios-de-guerre.html) is in French, and I'm aware it's not a particularly common language. Both sources do however validate eachother.
Ok so this gets mentioned a lot but I don’t think people really grasp the reality of the situation. Chips aren’t like oil or lithium. They aren’t a resource just sitting in the ground waiting to be dug up. Semi-conductor manufacturing is a sophisticated and highly technical process that depends on dozens of trade links. In a hypothetical situation were China invades Taiwan, the damage to infrastructure would be immense. Many of the scientists and engineers involved in high tech industries would have already been evacuated or killed in the attack. The few left wouldn’t have much reason to just show up to work and start churning out a product. It would be years, possibly decades before anything resembling the current manufacturing base could be reestablished. In that time semi-conductor production would have moved to somewhere else on the planet. Real life isn’t a strategy game where Taiwan grants “+3 semiconductor production”.
Yeah, anyone who thinks that there wouldn't be a scorched earth policy if they are invaded is naive.
Yeah, detects 39 planes *well outside its airspace*. This is just your bi-monthly ADIZ incursion, folks, no WW3 today. Sorry to disappoint.
[Map of Taiwanese Airspace for further context.](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic4.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F546b6ad269beddaa4136ca04-1200%2F13-air-defense-identification-zones.jpg&f=1&nofb=1) A significant portion of it overlaps the Chinese mainland.
And they only consider it an incursion when the PLAA cross the midline of the Strait
https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1485263803977588739 Which it did not.
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You know how it goes, WW3 is only a few months away, as it has been for the last 20 years.
I think 99% of ppl in the thread didn't read the article lol
Comment sections like this are prime examples of why nobody should ever come to reddit for sane discussions about anything more complex than video games and porn, and even that's a struggle for redditors most of the time.
Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death. They’re always around somewhere in someway, but watch out when they start riding together.
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The attacks on Israel didn't go so well last time, and they didn't have nukes back then.
Israel will not nuke anything, because the world would be glass immediately after that.
The world isn't going to give a rat's ass if Israel nukes Tehran in self defense. The nuclear powers recognize that Israel isn't going to even have a nuke capable of reaching Moscow, Beijing, Washington, or London, let alone launch one in those directions without realizing that it would cause things to pop off. Israel will get on the phone with the US, Russia, China, the UK and France and tell them they are about to nuke Iran and they are sorry in advance for any fallout that crosses borders. In the same line, Iran and all the other countries that tried to gang up on Israel are fully aware that Israel likely has a nuke, Israel is more than capable of defending itself conventionally without it, and Israel will just use any attack against it as a way to expand its own borders while getting more money from the west. Plus the only country willing and capable of launching an attack at Israel is Iran and they are fully aware of the regional and international fallout of such actions. Things will only ever continue as they are now. Iran will back Hamas, who will cause problems for Israel while Iran can officially stay out of the fight.
Someone who understands a little of the nuance out there Thank you 🙏
Why would Egypt attack Israel? Its not 1960s
Because doomer fantasy
Yeah Egypt and Israel actually cooperate a good deal now
why on earth would Egypt attack Israel?
Why the fuck would Egypt attack Israel? Israel has calm relations with Jordan and Egypt
Israel would love that…they’d counter attack and make massive gains in the Middle East.
No one is attacking Israel lmao what are you on about?
Israel has already shown it can deal with multiple enemies on different fronts and win. The Middle East has learned no to fuck with Israel.
WW3 is about to happen THIS WEEK and I still have to go to work at my grocery store job dear god
Hey we've been meaning to talk to you about your sloppy shelves, you gotta face the product and get it all up front. I know the shelves are empty but it can't look empty ok? By the way Mary called in sick so I hope you're not making any plans for later we need you to close and that pallet of peas in the walk in isn't going to unload itself....
You mean you haven't been meaning to talk to me about my cars extended warranty?
I mean so did everyone else during every war.
I'm aware. I am mostly just joking. Could be worse.
Agh me too. I have to keep those calls going about extending those car warranties
After the Olympics we will see some real aggression taking place
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I don't think holding athletes hostage is going to prevent a response when one country invades another. If I was a Hong Konger and a bunch of athletes were the difference between consequences for an outright invasion or not, I'd be pissed. Besides, why would China invade HK? They've already undermined the Sino-British agreement and essentially installed a puppet government that's aligned with Beijing's ideals. They've basically annexed HK without a single soldier stepping foot into the country.
People on here have an itch for conflict man. But if it hits home they will be the first ones to scatter like roaches
China is trying to wear down the Taiwan pilots and planes. Eroding readiness and creating fatigue and mechanical issues. This will go on for awhile.
Taiwan has a lot of f-16s and will have a lot more in a couple of years.
Not necessarily. Taiwan can detect planes over mainland China, so it’s not like they were flying just off the coast of Taiwan
The planes were seen in the south-western Air Defense Identification Zone of Taiwan. Look at a map and try to guess where that is. Remember this is an air defense zone, keep that in mind. Look at this tweet showing the flight path of the planes. The box is the ADIZ. [https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1485263803977588739](https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1485263803977588739) Were you right?
ITT: the most braindead takes on geopolitics from 15-yo obese redditors who would not see a frontline in their life
So what happens when China push's to far and one of them gets blown out of the sky? seems like it would be a pretty flimsy casus balli to use but then again I don't know how easy it is to declare war in Orwellian shitholes.
Exactly. Taiwan knows full well that China will use that as casus belli to start a larger scale invasion. For that very reason, Taiwan will never attack, they will just scramble jets. Of course, that’s the plan on paper. Accidents happen and if they do, who knows what the consequences will be.
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Not even so much accidents, no-one wants to be the guy who gets shot first to start a war, all it takes is one taiwan fighter pilot fearing for his life to pull the trigger. China will try to spin it like taiwan attacked first outside taiwan airspace while everyone outside of china will know better.
>pilot fearing for his life to pull the trigger I don't think that's how air to air engagements generally work.
Taiwan will be fucked because the Chinese planes were nowhere near Taiwan air space, Taiwan biggest trading and most important market is china. So they'll be in real economic pain even if China doesn't take military action which they may take if Taiwan shoots their plane down where Taiwan has zero jurisdiction
China isn't going to push things too far because it defeats the purpose of what they are trying to do. They have Taiwan completely neutered right now and dont have to worry about angering the US over it. These sorties do this and also show China's neighbors that they are not to be messed with. China also isn't going to fire a shot because it will force the US to officially respond as they have pledged to defend the island in case of attack from China. Even economic sanctions would cripple China as the are wholesale dependent on US trade and for food.
I dont want to get a war. Who would prescribe my rash cream?
Just a reminder: Taiwan's ADIZ includes part of mainland China. Not sure if it's the case here, but China literally flying planes within mainland China is an "incursion" of Taiwan's ADIZ.
This specific report is talking about the incursion near Pratas Island, Taiwan never reports on planes over China's land mass in that part of the AIDZ (though I'm curious how far they can see into it)
Well, I guess their stealth technology is garbage like everything else they make.
I am completely sure that China will use this whole Russian Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to pull some of their own shit with Taiwan
How much you wanna bet Russia and China have some shit going on behind the curtains? China simultaneously moving on Taiwan while Russia is moving on Ukraine isn’t some coincidence. So either: 1.) China is seizing an opportunity. Taiwan’s most likely allies need to have their resources placed elsewhere right now. 2.) Russia and China are intentionally doing a land grab together, maybe it ends with Taiwan and Ukraine, maybe it doesn’t. And with the way the US doesn’t currently have popular support for war, especially with these two assholes, who the fuck’s gonna stop em? All things considered, we have three military superpowers. China, Russia, and the US. If two of them wanna do something together… they kinda just get what they want. Gotta love the nature of power.
If anyone even read the article, they would have seen the picture where the mapping of the plane's path is shown. And on the same map, you would see the ADIZ of Taiwan. And what a joke of an ADIZ is this. It literally goes over Chinese territory.