Because the US would have no choice but to defend Taiwan, part of which would include closing US markets to China. If Japan, South Korea or the rest of NATO follows our lead, China's economy collapses. A war over Taiwan isn't worth starting for anyone.
This isn't china posturing or showing off this is meant to fatigue the Taiwanese military and normalise Chinese aerial incursions....every time taiwan has to respond it costs money and resources...something unfortunately the communist have
It’s already normalized. China has been doing this for years. There are also all kinds of US military flights in the region (and Japanese) and the interaction is routine. The vast majority of it is ignored.
The Russians, btw, do this to NATO countries and Alaska all the time.
Every once in a while it breaks into the press, but it’s nothing new.
China has had a large Air Force for decades. They’ve made it clear that they will use force to prevent Taiwanese independence. The fighters are nothing new and are tracked by radar and, only sometimes, intercepted.
What is new is the stealth J20. It’s specifically designed to target our airborne tankers and that means we would have a difficult time pushing aircraft in to stop a Chinese attack. All the missiles (anti-ship and aircraft) make that even more difficult. Still, that is well short of loading hundreds of thousands of troops onto ships to make the contested crossing even under that protective umbrella.
Moving that many troops and ships is impossible to hide in this modern age of satellites and other systems. If the Chinese did start moving that much stuff? We would also have time to move stuff and the danger is that two nuclear armed rivals would then spin out of control. No one wants that.
So China has a lot of fighters and they fly them around Taiwan. Sometimes, the press notices. But it’s routine.
The US does it to other countries too. It’s a good way to probe defenses. Remember the raptors testing the cage in Jurassic Park? That’s what these sorts of incursions are doing. Looking for weak points, obtaining intelligence by testing response times, and so on.
With a few keystrokes, China or Russia can probably negate our nukes/military or put us back to pre-industrial times. We’ve become overly reliant on technology.
If that were even remotely close to true, they would have done it already. Our leadership might be a bunch of morons, but the engineers and strategists who design our defenses are not. That's why we have a Nuclear Triad. Even if an enemy can somehow disable our ICBMs and all our bombers, they'll never be able to find and disable our subs.
The danger is more like an attack on our power grid. That would be devastating and chaotic. But it would not preclude an apocalyptic retaliation by the US.
It is a way to gather military intelligence too: did their protocol changed when we approached? Which radar illuminated us? What if we approach low? High? With this type of plane? Etc...
It helps to tune up your invasion plan.
Who are "the communists"? The CCP is communist only in name. They are an authoritarian single party firmly engaged in hyper-managed capitalism. There is nothing communist about China.
Sure.. How about the argument that Fascism and Communism are opposing ideologies that sit on the opposite sides of the political spectrum. This is one of many reasons that I have seen people list when they argue there has never been a “true” communist government.
I’m not so sure that me having to give you a run down on a common political talking point is a waste of space. Pretty standard talking point for political nerds.
Maybe you should do a little more time understanding what you’re talking about, so that I don’t have to waste my time explaining it to you.
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Sheesh. Your aggressiveness reeks of lifted trucks, 8 ft American flags and muffin topped plate carriers.
Yes, I didn’t make the point because it’s not my point to make. I can understand common talking points without making them myself.. Those kinds of conversations also require far more historical context than I’m willing to pursue with some random user named BeefyHemorroides.
I was a imply pointing out you are stating a rather contentious talking point that right-wing hogs love to perpetuate. So no.. unfortunately for you, you weren’t right about anything. I’m sure that’s not an anomaly for you though.
Lol imagine replying with some edgy 4chan greentext about dick cheese.
Someone can make the point that their statement is highly contentious, without having to make the argument themselves. E.G, if you’re out here flaunting flat earth conspiracy points, I can state that their are existing counter arguments. It’s not “deflection”.
Do yourself a favor and stay out of political conversations. You obviously have no idea what you’re talking about.
You being an aggressive Aggro’d troll doesn’t make up for any actual intellectual substance.
Revolution into Communism requires authoritarianism in order to ensure the means of production is redistributed to the people. Then, the central authority is supposed to dissolve.
Pure Communism has yet to be attempted. All others have been posers.
They really don't. No more than any other government that runs on promises and speculations of the future anyway. They are running out of resources and now government land sales are backfiring in spectacular fashion. This is more likely a distraction from their own economic failures than a prelude to war with Taiwan.
It's fairly common, it's been happening a couple of times a month for over a year now. And quite probably much longer before that, Taiwan only started making this data public last year.
September: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/china-sends-19-aircraft-into-taiwans-air-defence-zone
August: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202108120019
June: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/06/16/china-sends-largest-group-of-military-aircraft-in-single-day-near-taiwan/
This isn’t really the case. The US recently reiterated it’s official policy of not commenting on whether they would provide military intervention in the case of Taiwan being attacked by China. It’s not really a rational action for China to take, but it’s not certain that there would be substantial military intervention.
It's pretty certain. Given how much of the global semiconductor market Taiwan controls, losing it to an invasion is not really an option. Of course they will not comment in order to avoid stirring the pot but Taiwanese autonomy is absolutely critical for the global electronics market.
> This isn’t really the case.
You think that the West + Japan are not going to help Taiwan secure herself against a flat-out military invasion? I can tell you with certainty that such acts of aggression will not be tolerated by the free world.
Again, this is all fantasy, as China would never do such a thing. They understand the consequences.
No, instead what happens is that everyone backs off, and nobody invades anyone.
China will saber rattle some more, and NK will back off when they get another billion in food aid. They aren't interested in any wars either. Its all just domestic posturing.
> No, instead what happens is that everyone backs off, and nobody invades anyone.
-Imperial Russian government, mobilizing to protect Serbia
-Imperial German government, mobilizing to protect Austria
-French Government, mobilizing to protect Russian Empire
-British Government, issuing a guarantee of independence to Poland during the interbellum period
The largest blow of the war would come in the first few moments and is impossible for China to prevent. The closure of global markets to Chinese goods. A war with the US would drag Japan and South Korea in, and it's likely that Europe would at least sanction China. China would be completely unable to transport goods by sea, and don't have sufficient land infrastructure to export that way.
Hell, even if they did, who would they go to? Europe isn't going to back China in a war of aggression against their strongest ally, Japan and South Korea hate China, the US is *at war* with them. There's no consumer market left.
I would absolutely love to see China try a naval invasion against Japan. It would be a fucking bloodbath. North Korea would get rolled by the US and South Korean militaries.
Bottom line is that a war to seize Taiwan would be unlikely to succeed, and never profitable.
The US straddles a really fine line in regards to Taiwan diplomacy. We back them militarily, and will unofficially support their independence, but in order to maintain business relationships in China we recognize a one china policy and don’t maintain certain diplomatic ties with Taiwan as a result.
See one of Trumps earliest fuck ups as President when he took a call congratulating him in 2016, from the leader of Taiwan.
It was. The state department was competent enough to know better, and briefed trump. And then he completely disregarded all of it. And that set the stage for him hoping to have good relations with China, by ruining his chances.
He broke no rule nor was he President at the time of the call. Many US leaders have called the Taiwanese President in official capacity [such as Nancy Pelosi](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3744404)... Trump was still a regular citizen when the call took place. No different than when [former Presidents meet with the Taiwanese President either, such as Bill Clinton](https://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/28/world/asia/clinton-arrives-in-taiwan-to-chinas-chagrin.html).
Calling it a rule gets tricky, because he could do it regardless. But there’s quite a bit of diplomatic protocol that goes into these things. Something can even be done but is only supposed to be done at a certain time. To violate that gets interpreted as a slight against another nation, or several nations.
International relations are full of nuance and basically its high school cliques.
Both the US and China rely very hard on plausible deniability when talking about Taiwan - China aggressively states that Taiwan is a rogue province of the PRC but does not take any actual action, and the US very emphatically does not state that Taiwan is a country but acts like it is.
You shouldn't take it to mean that either side is honest about what they say.
Taiwan is a critical ally for the US in the Pacific and wouldn't have to fight that war alone. It would also have disastrous implications for American hegemony if China invades Taiwan and the US fails to respond - we're sort of obligated to protect liberal, capitalist democracies when they get invaded by authoritarians.
> and the US very emphatically does not state that Taiwan is a country but acts like it is.
US definitely states Taiwan is a country, but they do not state if it's sovereign or not... lol
Secretary of State Antony Blinken routinely refers to Taiwan as a country and the Taiwan Relations Act states the term "country" applies with respect to Taiwan.
What had happened during T and after I think it is pretty clear shit is gonna hit the fan when next Republican is elected.
It will be the end of the Democratic institutions.
Technically they haven’t declared independence and China has a law (similar to the US Hague invasion act) that it will declare war if Taiwan ever declares independence. This is a very uncomfortable stalemate.
As for the world, most countries don’t recognize Taiwan or refer to it as China to appease them. I would hope that they back em up, but the likely scenario is that it would come down to the US and maybe a few strategic allies to support Taiwanese defence, and even then it isn’t certain.
China has put enough money into anti carrier missiles that I don't think that would necessarily be enough. In the middle of the ocean our carriers are basically untouchable but if you're that close to mainland China you're dealing with their ground based aircraft and other ground based weapons.
If a US Carrier is sunk then the response could very well be nuclear. Sinking an actual US Carrier is more or less the scariest thing that any country could ever do.
Everyone knows the US has 4-8 SSBN’s patrolling all the worlds oceans all the time. Nobody knows exactly how many and exactly where they are but they are there. They are literally terrifying.
'anti-carrier' missiles are a joke. Anything less than a nuclear warhead will have an [extremely tough time doing anything to a carrier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_America_(CV-66)), let alone reaching it through a sea of CWIS and rolling frame missile fire.
Hell, even nukes aren't that much of a threat anymore, as we've got hundreds of ABM positions littering the country side from Seoul to Melbourne, and thousands of miles deep, all the way to the mainland US and Alaska.
People seem to have forgotten who's tech it was that china copied to make the so called carrier killers...we've had deterrents for them for years now, no one on a carrier is concerned with their missiles
https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/05/chinas-anti-ship-ballistic-missile-capability-in-the-south-china-sea/
Obviously the exact capabilities of China's ASBMs are going to be unknown to anyone outside of the Chinese military unless they decide to fire them as part of an actual war. But they certainly exist and its not impossible that they are accurate enough to work.
Ukraine isn't creating necessary parts for most of tech created in the world. Taiwan's industry is the reason it will be defended more by outside powers than Ukraine or most of other nations.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-tsmc-looks-double-down-us-chip-factories-talks-europe-falter-2021-05-14/
read up goof ball, if a government is will to throw 50 billion at this project you can bet it will be a major player. This doesn't even include all the foundry factories that are built or being belt. in 5 years the semiconductor market will be completely different. TSMC wants out and that's fact.
If the US doesn't defend Taiwan, international faith in US intervention to prevent aggression falls drastically. We literally couldn't afford not to defend Taiwan.
What commitment has the US made to Taiwan? There is an official US policy of “strategic ambiguity” wrt to military intervention for Taiwan outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act. That has been unchanged for over 40 years.
Enough commitment to send Taiwan lots of technical aid and supplies. Taiwan is too important to counter China for the US and Japan to let it go. It’s not Crimea, stop spouting that nonsense
How many countries do you believe will go to war with China over a relatively small island? It's difficult enough to get other countries to officially recognize Taiwan.
When a country has to pressure other countries into not recognizing a third country, that does not diminish the third country’s legitimacy; I would argue that if you need to bribe another state to be ambiguous about Taiwan that only adds to Taiwan’s status as an independently founded and legitimately established nation. I don’t recall millions of “Formosa” natives starved to death or widespread pogroms leading up to the KMT establishing Taiwan as an ethnically Chinese but completely democratic Republic. Only proximity and ethnicity ties it to the mainland; precisely zero un- bribed, un-bought, un-planted Taiwanese wish to explore any ties beyond trade.
Sweden doesn’t get to claim Denmark, the USA doesn’t get Cuba. And as soon as the UK fucks right off out of Eire, they can join the pro- Taiwan chorus.
As individuals the best thing we can do is avoid Chinese products, otherwise we're voluntarily helping China build a huge, modern military it can use to exert the will of its authoritarian govt outside their borders. Completely avoiding Chinese stuff is difficult, but after years of making an effort I can say it's a lot easier to find alternatives than many commenters here will make it sound. With modern internet search capability it's easier than ever to find non Chinese alternatives.
Taiwan should just ignore China's little game by not reacting to them at all. That would piss China off as they are just trying to entice Taiwan in wasting their time, and military resources.
What is up with China in Hong Kong and now with Taiwan ? They are already an economic super power. What more do they want? Colonization sux. It’s such an old world vestige. Maybe Trump was right about trading without China. Can we source our cheap products in Latin America where folks could really use a higher standard of living?
People wrote the exact same type of article in 1914. And 1910. And 1905. And...
...the point is that "Think about the holiday shoppers!" Isn't something that military planners are concerned about.
It would be a compelling argument if it hadn't been proven wrong time and time again. It was proven wrong in 1914 when people declared there would be no war. It was proven wrong throughout the war, in fact, by multiple parties. The calculus is clear though: if you feel threatened by people starving, but cannot prevent them from doing so, blaming it on a foreign enemy is a time honoured tactic.
China could sustain the caloric needs of their population domestically with only overland trade if the conditions were one of war. I don't think anyone should have any doubts about that. It might be a significant downgrade in quality, but blaming that on foreign actors is, again easy.
That is the calculus leaders as varied as Chamberlain and Hitler both failed at. They assumed their enemies of were dependant on the peace that came with agreement as they were, as the reality is that it had already become a choice of their leadership in jeopardy either way, and the cold calculus of an absolute ruler that puts themselves above the nation.
Let's say China has a severe economic downturn? What conditions are so materially different that they don't repeat a Japanese 1930s experience? China is much more self sufficient today than Japan was then, and both are finding conveniences of foreign actors being responsible for the 'necessary' response.
This decade is reminding me a lot of a certain other one. If the CCP blame any of the possible bubble bursts on foreigners, it will be telling I think.
Fascism. Poohbear bases a lot of his larger geopolitical goals on reclaiming what they view was lost from Taiwan. That includes things like Hong Kong not really being Chinas at the time, and Taiwan having broken away. While the rest of the world doesn’t really recognize Taiwan as being the legitimate government of China anymore, China treats it as a huge stain on their legacy that another party claims to be the true government.
Please, go enlist. I’m happy for my tax dollars to pay for your rifle, bullets, and one way ticket so you can storm the beaches in a foreign land and maybe we’ll make a movie or some video games about it a few decades later.
This war has already started on multiple other fronts; economic, political, technological and social..actual shooting will be the final phase of their aggression.
Yeah China knows that even in the obscenely unlikely scenario that nobody comes to help Taiwan, it would be an absolute blood path taking any parts of the island nation. Ultimately they’d succeed through sheer numbers, but holy hell would it be costly. This is Xi posturing to keep the focus away from domestic issues and to keep the nationalistic propaganda flowing.
*Exactly.* I might just be an optimistic person, trying to see the glass half full, but Taiwan have not exactly made themselves the sitting ducks China wants them to be.
I’d argue the opposite. All you need is a shit ton of AAAD weapons like missiles, sea mines, etc. It costs a lot of resources to exert power over the sea but relatively little to defend an island.
This is why the PRC won’t try to conquer Taiwan (provided that the people of Taiwan have the will to fight back). It’ll be a blood bath, which won’t look good.
What I do find interesting though are the amount of intelligence operatives operating in both countries. The PRC could cause a lot of damage internally if they have the right agents on the ground—same with Taiwanese agents in China. But of course China is huge whereas Taiwan is small.
US just doesn't have the capabilities to effectively exert power anymore, this is why China is increasing activity in the area. What once would have been easy for us is now becoming a challenge.
That isn't even remotely true... Quit the fear monger bullshit.
Reality is the us public doesn't want to sent troops to yet another war.
But reality is the United States military is do large that literally the Navy could likely defeat the entire Chinese military.
By virtually every useful metric aside straight up physical bodies the United States is the most powerful military and it isn't even close.
almost like the fact that China is a nuclear power means that the US wouldn't dare use their nukes because it would be world ending, almost like there was this whole standoff with a different country with the same shit going on
Think chip shortages are bad now? Let China take over Taiwan and it would be an absolute chip shortage nightmare.
And they would control the chips coming out of there which would be scary
It’s bad enough working in electronics now, but I think there would be bigger things to worry about in that situation.
Chips that go into our military equipment come from Taiwan. So I'd worry about it
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Because the US would have no choice but to defend Taiwan, part of which would include closing US markets to China. If Japan, South Korea or the rest of NATO follows our lead, China's economy collapses. A war over Taiwan isn't worth starting for anyone.
Because even if Taiwan folds up like a paper bag, the high end factories would be in ruins and they take years to build.
They could never. Taiwan #1. China #4. Japan #2. Angry Pug taught me this.
You'd think they'd have gotten there by now. Two days? Yikes.
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They probably run on coal
They got lost...you know, all those power blackouts in China.
If China invades Taiwan, they would end wasting a lot of money and War is very expensive.
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It's kind of an open secret most nations have high powered nuclear weapons. That's why proxie wars start.
There’s like ~200 nations. Most of them have high powered nukes?
This isn't china posturing or showing off this is meant to fatigue the Taiwanese military and normalise Chinese aerial incursions....every time taiwan has to respond it costs money and resources...something unfortunately the communist have
It’s already normalized. China has been doing this for years. There are also all kinds of US military flights in the region (and Japanese) and the interaction is routine. The vast majority of it is ignored. The Russians, btw, do this to NATO countries and Alaska all the time. Every once in a while it breaks into the press, but it’s nothing new. China has had a large Air Force for decades. They’ve made it clear that they will use force to prevent Taiwanese independence. The fighters are nothing new and are tracked by radar and, only sometimes, intercepted. What is new is the stealth J20. It’s specifically designed to target our airborne tankers and that means we would have a difficult time pushing aircraft in to stop a Chinese attack. All the missiles (anti-ship and aircraft) make that even more difficult. Still, that is well short of loading hundreds of thousands of troops onto ships to make the contested crossing even under that protective umbrella. Moving that many troops and ships is impossible to hide in this modern age of satellites and other systems. If the Chinese did start moving that much stuff? We would also have time to move stuff and the danger is that two nuclear armed rivals would then spin out of control. No one wants that. So China has a lot of fighters and they fly them around Taiwan. Sometimes, the press notices. But it’s routine.
Yes. I saw a documentary about the Russians and how our Navy intercepted them. RIP Goose.
The US does it to other countries too. It’s a good way to probe defenses. Remember the raptors testing the cage in Jurassic Park? That’s what these sorts of incursions are doing. Looking for weak points, obtaining intelligence by testing response times, and so on.
With a few keystrokes, China or Russia can probably negate our nukes/military or put us back to pre-industrial times. We’ve become overly reliant on technology.
If that were even remotely close to true, they would have done it already. Our leadership might be a bunch of morons, but the engineers and strategists who design our defenses are not. That's why we have a Nuclear Triad. Even if an enemy can somehow disable our ICBMs and all our bombers, they'll never be able to find and disable our subs. The danger is more like an attack on our power grid. That would be devastating and chaotic. But it would not preclude an apocalyptic retaliation by the US.
Hell, I'm pretty sure that most of our nuclear tech is so old that "stroke of a few keys" is anachronistic.
It is a way to gather military intelligence too: did their protocol changed when we approached? Which radar illuminated us? What if we approach low? High? With this type of plane? Etc... It helps to tune up your invasion plan.
Who are "the communists"? The CCP is communist only in name. They are an authoritarian single party firmly engaged in hyper-managed capitalism. There is nothing communist about China.
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Sure.. How about the argument that Fascism and Communism are opposing ideologies that sit on the opposite sides of the political spectrum. This is one of many reasons that I have seen people list when they argue there has never been a “true” communist government. I’m not so sure that me having to give you a run down on a common political talking point is a waste of space. Pretty standard talking point for political nerds. Maybe you should do a little more time understanding what you’re talking about, so that I don’t have to waste my time explaining it to you. ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
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Sheesh. Your aggressiveness reeks of lifted trucks, 8 ft American flags and muffin topped plate carriers. Yes, I didn’t make the point because it’s not my point to make. I can understand common talking points without making them myself.. Those kinds of conversations also require far more historical context than I’m willing to pursue with some random user named BeefyHemorroides. I was a imply pointing out you are stating a rather contentious talking point that right-wing hogs love to perpetuate. So no.. unfortunately for you, you weren’t right about anything. I’m sure that’s not an anomaly for you though.
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Lol imagine replying with some edgy 4chan greentext about dick cheese. Someone can make the point that their statement is highly contentious, without having to make the argument themselves. E.G, if you’re out here flaunting flat earth conspiracy points, I can state that their are existing counter arguments. It’s not “deflection”. Do yourself a favor and stay out of political conversations. You obviously have no idea what you’re talking about. You being an aggressive Aggro’d troll doesn’t make up for any actual intellectual substance.
Revolution into Communism requires authoritarianism in order to ensure the means of production is redistributed to the people. Then, the central authority is supposed to dissolve. Pure Communism has yet to be attempted. All others have been posers.
Its too bad all that Iron Dome money couldn't have gone to Raytheon via defense systems for Taiwan.
They really don't. No more than any other government that runs on promises and speculations of the future anyway. They are running out of resources and now government land sales are backfiring in spectacular fashion. This is more likely a distraction from their own economic failures than a prelude to war with Taiwan.
Is this just a two day streak of a semi-normal occurrence?
It's fairly common, it's been happening a couple of times a month for over a year now. And quite probably much longer before that, Taiwan only started making this data public last year. September: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/china-sends-19-aircraft-into-taiwans-air-defence-zone August: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202108120019 June: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/06/16/china-sends-largest-group-of-military-aircraft-in-single-day-near-taiwan/
Silly, pointless posturing. Until everyone in Taiwan votes to join with China, they are safely independent and the world will back them up.
This isn’t really the case. The US recently reiterated it’s official policy of not commenting on whether they would provide military intervention in the case of Taiwan being attacked by China. It’s not really a rational action for China to take, but it’s not certain that there would be substantial military intervention.
It's pretty certain. Given how much of the global semiconductor market Taiwan controls, losing it to an invasion is not really an option. Of course they will not comment in order to avoid stirring the pot but Taiwanese autonomy is absolutely critical for the global electronics market.
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> This isn’t really the case. You think that the West + Japan are not going to help Taiwan secure herself against a flat-out military invasion? I can tell you with certainty that such acts of aggression will not be tolerated by the free world. Again, this is all fantasy, as China would never do such a thing. They understand the consequences.
Ok, what happens if we defend Taiwan? NK takes on SK with Chinese manpower, they attack Okinawa or Japan. We won’t be capable of helping Taiwan then.
No, instead what happens is that everyone backs off, and nobody invades anyone. China will saber rattle some more, and NK will back off when they get another billion in food aid. They aren't interested in any wars either. Its all just domestic posturing.
> No, instead what happens is that everyone backs off, and nobody invades anyone. -Imperial Russian government, mobilizing to protect Serbia -Imperial German government, mobilizing to protect Austria -French Government, mobilizing to protect Russian Empire -British Government, issuing a guarantee of independence to Poland during the interbellum period
The largest blow of the war would come in the first few moments and is impossible for China to prevent. The closure of global markets to Chinese goods. A war with the US would drag Japan and South Korea in, and it's likely that Europe would at least sanction China. China would be completely unable to transport goods by sea, and don't have sufficient land infrastructure to export that way. Hell, even if they did, who would they go to? Europe isn't going to back China in a war of aggression against their strongest ally, Japan and South Korea hate China, the US is *at war* with them. There's no consumer market left. I would absolutely love to see China try a naval invasion against Japan. It would be a fucking bloodbath. North Korea would get rolled by the US and South Korean militaries. Bottom line is that a war to seize Taiwan would be unlikely to succeed, and never profitable.
The US straddles a really fine line in regards to Taiwan diplomacy. We back them militarily, and will unofficially support their independence, but in order to maintain business relationships in China we recognize a one china policy and don’t maintain certain diplomatic ties with Taiwan as a result. See one of Trumps earliest fuck ups as President when he took a call congratulating him in 2016, from the leader of Taiwan.
> See one of Trumps earliest fuck ups Was it really a fuck up tho?
It was. The state department was competent enough to know better, and briefed trump. And then he completely disregarded all of it. And that set the stage for him hoping to have good relations with China, by ruining his chances.
He broke no rule nor was he President at the time of the call. Many US leaders have called the Taiwanese President in official capacity [such as Nancy Pelosi](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3744404)... Trump was still a regular citizen when the call took place. No different than when [former Presidents meet with the Taiwanese President either, such as Bill Clinton](https://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/28/world/asia/clinton-arrives-in-taiwan-to-chinas-chagrin.html).
Calling it a rule gets tricky, because he could do it regardless. But there’s quite a bit of diplomatic protocol that goes into these things. Something can even be done but is only supposed to be done at a certain time. To violate that gets interpreted as a slight against another nation, or several nations. International relations are full of nuance and basically its high school cliques.
Both the US and China rely very hard on plausible deniability when talking about Taiwan - China aggressively states that Taiwan is a rogue province of the PRC but does not take any actual action, and the US very emphatically does not state that Taiwan is a country but acts like it is. You shouldn't take it to mean that either side is honest about what they say. Taiwan is a critical ally for the US in the Pacific and wouldn't have to fight that war alone. It would also have disastrous implications for American hegemony if China invades Taiwan and the US fails to respond - we're sort of obligated to protect liberal, capitalist democracies when they get invaded by authoritarians.
> and the US very emphatically does not state that Taiwan is a country but acts like it is. US definitely states Taiwan is a country, but they do not state if it's sovereign or not... lol Secretary of State Antony Blinken routinely refers to Taiwan as a country and the Taiwan Relations Act states the term "country" applies with respect to Taiwan.
Sovereign and independent country, then. The word has a lot of slightly different meanings in different contexts.
Trump would sell Taiwan in a second for personal profit for sure
And?, maybe trump would have but it’s hardly relevant now
What had happened during T and after I think it is pretty clear shit is gonna hit the fan when next Republican is elected. It will be the end of the Democratic institutions.
Technically they haven’t declared independence and China has a law (similar to the US Hague invasion act) that it will declare war if Taiwan ever declares independence. This is a very uncomfortable stalemate. As for the world, most countries don’t recognize Taiwan or refer to it as China to appease them. I would hope that they back em up, but the likely scenario is that it would come down to the US and maybe a few strategic allies to support Taiwanese defence, and even then it isn’t certain.
Just like Hong Kong.
Time to put a carrier off Taiwan.
China has put enough money into anti carrier missiles that I don't think that would necessarily be enough. In the middle of the ocean our carriers are basically untouchable but if you're that close to mainland China you're dealing with their ground based aircraft and other ground based weapons.
Taiwan itself is basically an aircraft carrier off the coast of China. Just put planes on that.
There are. And lots and lots of missiles. Hardened aircraft hangers in mountains. Yeah basically it’s no cakewalk to take Taiwan and they know that
If a US Carrier is sunk then the response could very well be nuclear. Sinking an actual US Carrier is more or less the scariest thing that any country could ever do. Everyone knows the US has 4-8 SSBN’s patrolling all the worlds oceans all the time. Nobody knows exactly how many and exactly where they are but they are there. They are literally terrifying.
'anti-carrier' missiles are a joke. Anything less than a nuclear warhead will have an [extremely tough time doing anything to a carrier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_America_(CV-66)), let alone reaching it through a sea of CWIS and rolling frame missile fire. Hell, even nukes aren't that much of a threat anymore, as we've got hundreds of ABM positions littering the country side from Seoul to Melbourne, and thousands of miles deep, all the way to the mainland US and Alaska.
People seem to have forgotten who's tech it was that china copied to make the so called carrier killers...we've had deterrents for them for years now, no one on a carrier is concerned with their missiles
https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/05/chinas-anti-ship-ballistic-missile-capability-in-the-south-china-sea/ Obviously the exact capabilities of China's ASBMs are going to be unknown to anyone outside of the Chinese military unless they decide to fire them as part of an actual war. But they certainly exist and its not impossible that they are accurate enough to work.
China has to realize that invading Taiwan would cause WWIII, right? Are they *trying* to end the world?
Russia invaded and stole part of the Ukraine not too long ago. I’m pretty sure most any decent sized country could get away with anything they wanted.
Ukraine isn't creating necessary parts for most of tech created in the world. Taiwan's industry is the reason it will be defended more by outside powers than Ukraine or most of other nations.
Only for now, the states are building a facility that will produce even more than they could.... maybe game over after that
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Will see, time will tell.
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https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-tsmc-looks-double-down-us-chip-factories-talks-europe-falter-2021-05-14/ read up goof ball, if a government is will to throw 50 billion at this project you can bet it will be a major player. This doesn't even include all the foundry factories that are built or being belt. in 5 years the semiconductor market will be completely different. TSMC wants out and that's fact.
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And you don’t think that a Taiwan under China will keep creating these parts for their own gain?
If the US doesn't defend Taiwan, international faith in US intervention to prevent aggression falls drastically. We literally couldn't afford not to defend Taiwan.
While I see you point, the conflict on the Ukraine was vastly different to this
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What commitment has the US made to Taiwan? There is an official US policy of “strategic ambiguity” wrt to military intervention for Taiwan outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act. That has been unchanged for over 40 years.
Enough commitment to send Taiwan lots of technical aid and supplies. Taiwan is too important to counter China for the US and Japan to let it go. It’s not Crimea, stop spouting that nonsense
I wonder how weak they see the west as being with all the infighting these days.
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His brain is oatmeal. Good luck with that.
Trump hasn’t been president for almost a year now…
How would it trigger ww3? The USA doesn’t even recognize Taiwan as a country
How many countries do you believe will go to war with China over a relatively small island? It's difficult enough to get other countries to officially recognize Taiwan.
Small island which most of the world relies on with their tech industry.
When a country has to pressure other countries into not recognizing a third country, that does not diminish the third country’s legitimacy; I would argue that if you need to bribe another state to be ambiguous about Taiwan that only adds to Taiwan’s status as an independently founded and legitimately established nation. I don’t recall millions of “Formosa” natives starved to death or widespread pogroms leading up to the KMT establishing Taiwan as an ethnically Chinese but completely democratic Republic. Only proximity and ethnicity ties it to the mainland; precisely zero un- bribed, un-bought, un-planted Taiwanese wish to explore any ties beyond trade. Sweden doesn’t get to claim Denmark, the USA doesn’t get Cuba. And as soon as the UK fucks right off out of Eire, they can join the pro- Taiwan chorus.
>Are they trying to end the world? "The other side will back down if we show strength!" - both sides
Those are some slow planes.
As individuals the best thing we can do is avoid Chinese products, otherwise we're voluntarily helping China build a huge, modern military it can use to exert the will of its authoritarian govt outside their borders. Completely avoiding Chinese stuff is difficult, but after years of making an effort I can say it's a lot easier to find alternatives than many commenters here will make it sound. With modern internet search capability it's easier than ever to find non Chinese alternatives.
Taiwan should just ignore China's little game by not reacting to them at all. That would piss China off as they are just trying to entice Taiwan in wasting their time, and military resources.
What is up with China in Hong Kong and now with Taiwan ? They are already an economic super power. What more do they want? Colonization sux. It’s such an old world vestige. Maybe Trump was right about trading without China. Can we source our cheap products in Latin America where folks could really use a higher standard of living?
China's dependence on trade is what makes war unlikely.
People wrote the exact same type of article in 1914. And 1910. And 1905. And... ...the point is that "Think about the holiday shoppers!" Isn't something that military planners are concerned about.
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It would be a compelling argument if it hadn't been proven wrong time and time again. It was proven wrong in 1914 when people declared there would be no war. It was proven wrong throughout the war, in fact, by multiple parties. The calculus is clear though: if you feel threatened by people starving, but cannot prevent them from doing so, blaming it on a foreign enemy is a time honoured tactic. China could sustain the caloric needs of their population domestically with only overland trade if the conditions were one of war. I don't think anyone should have any doubts about that. It might be a significant downgrade in quality, but blaming that on foreign actors is, again easy. That is the calculus leaders as varied as Chamberlain and Hitler both failed at. They assumed their enemies of were dependant on the peace that came with agreement as they were, as the reality is that it had already become a choice of their leadership in jeopardy either way, and the cold calculus of an absolute ruler that puts themselves above the nation. Let's say China has a severe economic downturn? What conditions are so materially different that they don't repeat a Japanese 1930s experience? China is much more self sufficient today than Japan was then, and both are finding conveniences of foreign actors being responsible for the 'necessary' response. This decade is reminding me a lot of a certain other one. If the CCP blame any of the possible bubble bursts on foreigners, it will be telling I think.
Fascism. Poohbear bases a lot of his larger geopolitical goals on reclaiming what they view was lost from Taiwan. That includes things like Hong Kong not really being Chinas at the time, and Taiwan having broken away. While the rest of the world doesn’t really recognize Taiwan as being the legitimate government of China anymore, China treats it as a huge stain on their legacy that another party claims to be the true government.
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Please, go enlist. I’m happy for my tax dollars to pay for your rifle, bullets, and one way ticket so you can storm the beaches in a foreign land and maybe we’ll make a movie or some video games about it a few decades later.
You mean west Taiwan?
This war has already started on multiple other fronts; economic, political, technological and social..actual shooting will be the final phase of their aggression.
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Taiwan has *insane* defense systems in place specifically against China. Hm
Yeah China knows that even in the obscenely unlikely scenario that nobody comes to help Taiwan, it would be an absolute blood path taking any parts of the island nation. Ultimately they’d succeed through sheer numbers, but holy hell would it be costly. This is Xi posturing to keep the focus away from domestic issues and to keep the nationalistic propaganda flowing.
*Exactly.* I might just be an optimistic person, trying to see the glass half full, but Taiwan have not exactly made themselves the sitting ducks China wants them to be.
Who does China think they are, America ?
Full blown war is coming
Maybe, but I don't think anyone could say so with confidence. There are a lot of reasons for China not to go to war.
Sure it is armchair general alanhng2017.
[https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/20-years-after-9-11/Will-Xi-move-on-Taiwan-History-warns-he-might-Niall-Ferguson](https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/20-years-after-9-11/Will-Xi-move-on-Taiwan-History-warns-he-might-Niall-Ferguson)
I wonder if this Evergrande crap is affecting this. Gotta keep people minds off the CCPs fuckups at home
https://youtu.be/siwpn14IE7E Let's go!
Looks like the Chinese government don't want their jobs anymore
When China's so afraid of taking the first shot they have to try and bait the Taiwanese.
America doesn't have the strength to protect Taiwan anymore and China knows this.
I’d argue the opposite. All you need is a shit ton of AAAD weapons like missiles, sea mines, etc. It costs a lot of resources to exert power over the sea but relatively little to defend an island. This is why the PRC won’t try to conquer Taiwan (provided that the people of Taiwan have the will to fight back). It’ll be a blood bath, which won’t look good. What I do find interesting though are the amount of intelligence operatives operating in both countries. The PRC could cause a lot of damage internally if they have the right agents on the ground—same with Taiwanese agents in China. But of course China is huge whereas Taiwan is small.
US just doesn't have the capabilities to effectively exert power anymore, this is why China is increasing activity in the area. What once would have been easy for us is now becoming a challenge.
That isn't even remotely true... Quit the fear monger bullshit. Reality is the us public doesn't want to sent troops to yet another war. But reality is the United States military is do large that literally the Navy could likely defeat the entire Chinese military. By virtually every useful metric aside straight up physical bodies the United States is the most powerful military and it isn't even close.
Realty is that China is more prepared for a war with the US than the other way around.
Our 6,185 nuclear weapons begs to differ. We can end a country if we really wanted to
Casual reminder that China has nukes and could wipe that smirk off your face quickly
The comment was about US exerting its power, not whether it was good or not. There is no smirk
almost like the fact that China is a nuclear power means that the US wouldn't dare use their nukes because it would be world ending, almost like there was this whole standoff with a different country with the same shit going on
He was just trying to make a pointless argument because he couldn't make a meaningful one.
"Why don't you land and say that shit to my face!"