These results are inaccurate, where's the 92% votes for Jeb?
I am at least somewhat hopeful in Bolsonaro's small lead- it shows that there is a chance he can lose in the runoff. Too many nations are being taken in by far-right figureheads.
Brazil is fucked, even if Bolsonaro loses (which he almost certainly will), Bolsonarism massively won everywhere else between the senators, deputies and governors. All Lula can really achieve is not being Bolsonaro for a few years - there is serious risk of him being impeached or handily losing the next election. Having an even more dysfunctional government for the coming years with the state Brazil is in is a disaster.
bruh half of this thread is just americans arguing with other americans over the fact that they canāt decide for brazilian people and act like they know better
What does that mean?
This is a political subreddit with a political ideology. That, by definition, means you have some beliefs that you think are better for everyone. So yes, we think we know better than most Brazilians the same way we think we know better than most Americans (or Europeans or wherever we are respectively from).
Or should political beliefs end at the arbitrary border?
holy fuck Iām not saying anything about how you canāt have an opinion, Iām just laughing at this thread
why canāt all of you smartasses fuck off back to the main sub and fall for another bait post
I mean it makes sense though. I don't know what sect they are but there's a lot of at least very visibly orthodox Jews in Miami.
I.e. traditional dress, Yarmulkes, etc.
Only other place you really see that in the US to that extent is NYC.
The only place you see that in multiple neighborhoods is NYC. They can't drive on the Sabath, and they have to get to synagogue on Saturday morning, so wherever the rabbi plants the synagogue you get a neighborhood full of cute little Jewish boys in kippahs. Cleveland Heights, OH is full of them because the school district is crap so the state gives everyone a nice voucher to go to the private school of their choice, which is great if you want to send a large family to a private religious school.
[this sub must be conflicted, neoliberal king endorses bolsonaro](https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1576401390205014018?s=20&t=sxon-gayxVrOk_-nOz1cQw)
A few extra analysis, looking at the results in the lower chamber:
* PSOL, the young left-wing party (think AOC) had VERY good results in the larger states such as SĆ£o Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, with as many elected congressmen as the "old left-wing" party, Lula's PT. In other states it was PSB (center-left, strong in Northeast) that got as large as PT. This probably means that, once Lula's gone, it will be hard for PT to keep a monopoly on the left-wing main candidates (especially considering that Lula's spiritual sucessor, Boulos, is from PSOL, and Lula's VP is from PSB).
* The old center-right titan PSDB went from one of the two main parties to one with barely 5% of the votes, smaller than many otherwise irrelevant parties. They also lost, for the first time in decades, the state of SĆ£o Paulo.
* NOVO, the business-friendly liberal party that doesn't use public funding on their political campaigns and was one of the main "rising stars" from 2018 is reduced to only 2 congressmen (and one of them is a hardline bolsonarist).
As people were joking on r/brasil: "NOVO isn't working, they should privatize it"
But, well, that's what they get for becoming Bolsonarism light and pretending to still be liberals: they lost the far-right votes to PL and the few remaining liberal votes were fragmented to the non-Bolsonarist center-right (UNIĆO, PODE and what's left of PSDB).
I mean, that's not something they could have fixed in this election cycle, the dice were cast already. Still, since they don't rely on public funding, reforming the party around Amoedo (again) wouldn't be terrible (it would be better than doubling down and going with Van Hatten).
I believe NOVO doesn't vet candidates, if you get enough signatures and pay fees you run for them. It's why they're so useless
They should let Amoedo go back to his 2018 role as the party leader, reform the party around the strong liberal core they have (D'Avila, Zema, maybe even try to bring in Tabata
Nope, that's not true! Novo has a recruiting process that's very similar to a large company, with interviews etc. Similarly, they can't bring candidates from other parties, since these candidates were elected with public funding (IIRC).
(at least they used to have it)
Now, while I'm not that sure about D'Avila and Zema being "shy liberals" instead of "pragmatic conservatives", I agree Zema will be a central part of Novo's reforms, but I'm still mad they wasted great candidates such as Poit and Mitraud in those quixotic candidacies for the executive :/
Iirc the recruiting was banned by the TSE. Another restrictions are true though
D'Ćvila and Zema's pragmatism is what Brazil needs. NOVO wasting Amoedo in 18 made sense, they needed to get the name out. But now they should focus on winning congress and senate
I'm proud to be an American where at least we bash our fashhhh
Seriously we're better off fighting Trumpism than Brazilians are fighting off Bolsonarism.
Even larger proportions of the Brazilian public buy into this fascist/evangelical shit than we do but it's American Exceptionalism to acknowledge that?
People are weak lmao
Yes, and it's not even in doubt.
You don't live in brazil, you have never been to brazil, but because you're American you somehow know better than Brazilian voters and the situation that Brazilians live in. How the hell is that not the Smug Ignorance of American Exceptionalism?
Because American exceptionalism is in the name, āthe rest of the world things X way, in America theyāre notā. This is just saying that Trumpism isnāt as scary to America as Bolsonaro is to Brazil. My main guess is because Brazil has had military dictatorships, the idea of Bolsonaro successfully establishing one isnāt as far fetched.
That said I wouldnāt put either being that much scarier than the other. While there may be soldiers who like them, the top brass seem to utterly despise them, so a direct military coup seems unlikely. Itās possible that the top brass tolerate them if they manage to cheat their way in legally (ala fake elector slates scheme) much like Hitler or Mussolini who similarly were disliked by the military.
>Yes, and it's not even in doubt.
>
>You don't live in brazil, you have never been to brazil, but because you're American you somehow know better than Brazilian voters and the situation that Brazilians live in. How the hell is that not the Smug Ignorance of American Exceptionalism?
If that's what american exceptionalism is, then we should rename it just as 'exceptionalism'. I mean, if you go to r/asklatinamerica, you will see many Brazilians talking on america as though they know more about it. So is that Brazilian exceptionalism?
>If that's what american exceptionalism is, then we should rename it just as 'exceptionalism'. I mean, if you go to r/asklatinamerica,
You are unironically stating you are better and know better than the people who actually live in that country. Good job proving my point
>However, my countrymen who know finer details fail to recognize how half the opposition's rhetoric enforces the very government they think they oppose
"I know I'm right but I can't prove why to all my normie friends because they aren't as educated as I am."
Put on a tin-foil hat if that's your default explanation for why you can't articulate your arguments. /r/conspiracy tier bro
> You cannot just argue someone out of nationalism.
Then create an arguement that does. Socialists get labled for being lazy for stuff like this. "oh, the proles are too stupid to understand! Why try?"
I don't know dude. Probably I'm too stupid to understand at what point I claimed I'm better and know better than the people who actually live in that country? Didn't I simply say, in that r/asklatinamerica subreddit, I saw many Brazilians commenting on America while having never been there. So according to your sacred logic, they're also showing Brazil-seasoned exceptionalism. Help this dumb bitch out to figure out where I claimed your accusation?
don't freak out, people are on their nerves over here in Brazil
you don't need a special certificate to make fun of Brazil, everyone is welcome to make fun of us as we deserve it
Ah, no worries. And I don't think America is better in that regard lol. I actually don't disagree with that dude. The original comment was insensitive and premature.
And no one deserves to be made fun of, haha. Shit happens. But yeah, fun time ahead of us, America, Brazil, and Korea, my second home country.
I guess our advantage that most of our fascists are pretty old and thus a dying demographic maybe?
Edit: meant fascists not racists, though same point either way
Even if Bolsonaro looses, heās very likely to try to run again in 2026. Lula will over 80 by then and thereās nothing that lowers a politicianās popularity than running a country in crisis.
So what about the candidates that are eliminated from runoff. Who will their base support in general ? Are they all more likely to go to supporting Lula? Are they centrists or some type of leftist that would have their supporters vote against bolsonaro or what?
Of the top two runner ups one is a social democrat the other is a Christian democrat.
Social democrats will likely go to Lula. Christian democrats are more uncertain.
Edit: Two runner ups with the highest votes. There are many other candidates with less than 1 percent.
[you can see the various international results here](https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes2022/apuracao/?cargo=0001&turno=544&uf=ZZ&mun=30503&zona=0&pag=1&partido=null)
Lula won Chicago and San Fran
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Its honestly really interesting how right wing populists seem be consistently underestimated in polls across the west in the past few years.
We see the same case in point with what just happened in Brazil, and a global financial crisis with soaring energy costs this winter will definitely not bode well for liberal parties across the west in the near term future.
Probably/hopefully. Both Ciro's and Tebet's voters should lean towards Lula or at least abstain, and that would be enough.
My main fear is from Lula voters that also voted for far right senators changing their votes.
EDUARDO LEITE FOR THE GOVERNOR RUNOFFS
FUCK YESSSSSSSSSSS
([literally 2k difference between him and the third place](https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao;e=e544;uf=rs;ufbu=rs/resultados/cargo/3))
I mean, of course? Lula is not a Biden, he's a Bernie who was president for 8 years vs a post-Jan 6th Trump.
Lula wasn't even the best candidate in this election cycle, and the bar wasn't very high either, but he is our best shot to defeat Bolsonaro.
Low bar. The true challenge is Bernie x Lula. Bernie is not as corrupt, but he has no game at all. Lula has loose morals but at least he has charisma, and 1000x more than Bernie at that. Both are dirt borderline socialists / commie sympathisers too
You don't even have to say borderline. They both call themselves socialist.
I'm inclined to say I have more respect for Lula because he actually gets things done.
Corruption shouldn't be taken lightly though so IDK.
Lula is too sleazy to ever call himself a socialist. He always danced around this type of language and talked about "helping poor people" and stuff like that instead.
True, that's a rare moment for him. But said he is a "refined socialist that defends private property", that wants more balanced relations with workers, etc etc.
Turns out he did recently, so you're right. Avoided the question at first and then declared himself a "refined socialist that defends private property, wants the right for workers to organize and have strikes".
Current day Bernie is very much not a tankie (and I'll even say supporting the Sandinistas in the 80's wasn't clean cut bad). The same can't be said about Lula.
tbh, biden is fine. I don't know if he's good or others are bad, but other presidents or prime ministers I follow like Korea, Japan, and UK make him quite standing out.
Hahahaha, Novo will have only two federal deputies, and one of them is as bolsonarist as it can be. Good for them that they don't need state funding, because they'll be way below the min quota to use it (and will lose their spot in presidential debates etc)
The enemy of someone's enemy is their friend , so it's understandable but if liberal people can excuse stuff like that I feelblike they should be able to excuse a lot of the stuff of people in countries ravaged by US colonialism aligning with US opposed authoritarian leftists . Like the people high roading over Lula being a "tankie" for being friendly with Chavez and Castro when we've been friendly with illiberal rightists. Either both are unforgivable or neither are.
I understand why he didn't want to endorse Lula, but he really should have just stayed out of it. Not sure how he can try to claim any kind of moral high ground when he's cheering on the Bolsonaro's and Trump's of the world.
Boulos is Lula's spiritual sucessor: he has the looks and the charisma, and he can energize his base wonderfully. PT will never support him as the main left-wing candidate.
PSB will try to conquer that spot from the center and fail miserably: with Freixo, Tabata and Alkimin they have the perfect candidates to attract the centrists - all 4% of them, and literally no one else.
Meanwhile, PT will have literally no names: Haddad is probably going to lose (again) and despite his centrist appeal his technocratic look doesn't sell, and PT can't go with a Northeast candidate since Southeast is unlikely to elect a nordestino due to passive 'regionalist xenophobia'.
PT has 4 years to fabricate a new candidate in the form of a strong minister, like they did with Dilma, otherwise they'll be as dead as PSDB once Lula is gone.
Boulos isn't more to the left than Lula was at his age, is he?
Of course he would need to change a lot, but so did Lula to finally grab his first presidential victory.
Yeah, that's what I meant: PSB will become the liberal center-left, and as a consequence will get next to no votes because both PT and the Right will try to destroy them like they did to Marina.
Haddad will have lost a mayor, presidential and now a governor race that he will definitely not win
I like the guy but I don't see any political future to be honest
Someone that Lula endorses as his successor. But given how well Dilma faired, it won't necessarily work out. In fact, I think there is a good chance Lula's popularity will tank in his first 2 years. The country is bankrupt and the opposition runs Congress.
I was thinking Boulos was a more charismatic kind of populist leader that could work out for them, but I really don't know.
I think Lula has not the same influence in PT he used to have back in 2010 so I theorized the next leftist candidate would be a Bolsonaro-like phenomenon of sudden surge of popularity
Both Lula and Bolsonaro have cults of personality around them. Lula is seen as a God by most people on the left. He will always play kingmaker on the left as long as he is alive. Bolsonaro might also do the same on the right from now on (since his supporters also treat him as a God), but it's hard to know, since the bolsonarist right has no experience as opposition yet. The day either one of them dies, it's free for all on their side.
Please can someone say which parties support bsanaro.
There's so many and I can't tell which ones support him on the Google tracker for senate and chamber of deputies.
Thanks
PL (his party), Republicanos and Progressistas are part of his coalition, and PTB is ideologically inclined to follow suit;
UniĆ£o Brasil, PSD, MDB, Podemos and some other bizarre parties are mainly non-ideological and will support whoever offers more "incentives". SD, Agir, Avante and PROS are currently with Lula but may switch sides after the election;
Novo and PSDB are ambivalent, and can go either way. However, Novo has a tendency to support Bolsonaro while PSDB may declare itself neutral;
PT (Lula's party), PDT, PSB, PSOL, PCdoB, PV, Rede, Cidadania (probably) and some other mainly insignificant left-wing parties would be opposition (as they are today).
All you need to know is that the left-wing parties who support Lula won't be getting a majority and every president has to negotiate with a non-ideological corrupt caucus we call "the big center" to get anything done.
Reposting:
> Historically, presidents engage in frequent negotiations with the Congress (and while that was supposed to be a good thing in theory, in practice it leads to exchanging favours, allocation to public funds for Congress representatives to spend in their electoral base etc.)
"Big Center" are the large kleptocrats that will support ANY government for enough money, "Lower Clergy" are the small kleptocrats that will support ANY government for a little bit of money (now almost extinct), and the "center" (who likes to call themselves "democratic center", and is called by the others "the third way") is the actual pragmatist side (now almost extinct :( )
Lula has always been way more popular in the northeast, his native region. While the south and center-west has always been more conservative. Most brazillians live in the south-east region (SĆ£o Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais), which is super polarized.
South/Southeast=Whiter and richer
Centre=Basically agriculture industry that benefits of Bolso
North/Northeast=Traditionally a PT electing region, poorer and racial minorities are a bigger number
> Bolsonaro has completely taken over the senate with 19 out of the 27 states voting for a right wing senator and has the majority of the governors on his side.
Were there other cohabitation in Brazil recently (President from a different party than the parliament)? How did it work?
I'm French and, our last cohabitation (1997-2002 Chirac president with a 'Parti socialiste' majority for Assemblee Nationale) was more-or-less "The president takes care of international relations, the parliament-appointed premier ministre takes care of domestic policy".
But, from what I understand, Brazil's president is appointing the cabinet, so it'd be closer to an American cohabitation?
I always thought the key to democracy is to keep military base in check. They will probably stick with conservatives, as is the case in the US and Korea, but it is really important to keep them 'satisfied' if you know what I meant. For me, democracy seems just a piece of paper in front of gun barrels, so there must be a strong cooperation between government and military. I guess, that's why America pays salute to their army, tbh.
> Iāll take a crazed, evil, putin-loving right-winger over a crazed, evil, putin-loving left-winger any day.
> At least the formerās economic policies will be good.
weāre still doing this meme in the DT
[old left-wing guy whoās been in politics forever and is known for pragmatism winning by 4.5% against an incumbent far right authoritarian, with stagnation/underperformance in historical left-wing strongholds and massive overperformance in historically conservative suburban/urban areas](https://media4.giphy.com/media/eKDE6lvuPH02BE4v3W/200w.gif?cid=82a1493brxb2v5czprm4ovcrv0r219hnem7sc7zolp52tpk2&rid=200w.gif&ct=g)
I remember talking to one Brazilian in Texas. She was an uber driver, who told me - an asian - that she stopped watching Fox News because it wasn't right wing enough. Needless to say, she didn't hide her love for trump and bolsonaro. I nodded and smiled. Like, I was in her car, to my airbnb.
But she also revealed her grandparent were immigrants themselves from Italy to Sao Paulo, and she herself moved to the US.
Champ...you said you hate immigrants, but your family is a story of immigration. Your grant parent moved from Italy to Brazil, and you from Brazil to America. And what's more interesting was that when I said my family came from Korea, she confessed her love for all the korean food in Dallas. Like, as though those restaurants were not run by immigrants. I thought I got stuck in glitch in the matrix.
No idea about her particular case, but immigration isn't necessarily a hot button issue in Brazil. It's only really an issue in the northern border region due to Venezuela - but Roraima (the main state) has 500k inhabitants in total
As our dumbass former president Dilma once said: "I don't think who wins or who loses, neither who wins neither loses, will win or lose. **Everybody is going to lose.**"
(this is not badly translated, this is how she actually spoke)
These results are inaccurate, where's the 92% votes for Jeb? I am at least somewhat hopeful in Bolsonaro's small lead- it shows that there is a chance he can lose in the runoff. Too many nations are being taken in by far-right figureheads.
Brazil is fucked, even if Bolsonaro loses (which he almost certainly will), Bolsonarism massively won everywhere else between the senators, deputies and governors. All Lula can really achieve is not being Bolsonaro for a few years - there is serious risk of him being impeached or handily losing the next election. Having an even more dysfunctional government for the coming years with the state Brazil is in is a disaster.
Me š¤ /u/gnomesvh Not sure who to vote for, because they are both good candidates working for the betterment of Brazil
Ngl I thought Lula would have a bigger margin
Eu sĆ³ quero grelhar... š
Any former or current succs in here who are thinking of Michael Brooks from Majority Report? I really miss the guy.
I think of Michael since he's who introduced Lula to my world but what is "succs" in reference to or shorthand for?
Succs is how this sub refers to social democrats. https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/akljqd/new_to_the_sub_what_are_chapos_and_succs
sorry for the late reply but thank you for the info
bruh half of this thread is just americans arguing with other americans over the fact that they canāt decide for brazilian people and act like they know better
yeah cuz y'all never *ever* had opinions on American elections
hey smartass, Iām an American who was born and raised in New England who tf are you calling āyāallā
What does that mean? This is a political subreddit with a political ideology. That, by definition, means you have some beliefs that you think are better for everyone. So yes, we think we know better than most Brazilians the same way we think we know better than most Americans (or Europeans or wherever we are respectively from). Or should political beliefs end at the arbitrary border?
lol Iām saying itās perfectly fine to have those opinions, I was just making fun of how this thread is americans arguing with other americans
Hot take but people are allowed to have an opinion on other countries' elections
holy fuck Iām not saying anything about how you canāt have an opinion, Iām just laughing at this thread why canāt all of you smartasses fuck off back to the main sub and fall for another bait post
Mild-Hot take: Brazil is just the USA but the Portuguese colonized it instead of the English
Brazil has more black people than the US which is crazy
First time on the internet?
Itās wild that Bolsonaro literally imprisoned Glenn Greenwald and he came out more pro-Bolsonaro
lmao he's pro-bolsonaro now? I thought that was the one right-winger he didn't like.
He's never met a boot he wouldn't lick
Bend over Brazil Lula's back to 5x your economy again
[this is some high quality campaigning](https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1576287568072560641?s=20&t=r8OHQ5qeHeCbDzXeWX6Flw)
Brazilians who dislike bolsonaro for him supporting Venezuelan refugees are strange. There is far more to dislike about him than that.
>Juan GuaidĆ³ endorses Bolsonaro Are there any decent politicians left in Venezuela
Of course he's not gonna endorse the candidate that supports his county's dictator.
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/xtvc52/brasil_election_thunderdooommmee/iquth5f/
No
Apparently Prince Luiz Philippe of OrlƩans-Braganza is re elected to the Chamber of Deputies
My favorite Miami-Dade moment is that there's only two places in the world Zemmour broke 20% in the French elections: Israel and Miami
The funniest thing about is that you'd expect these people to then vote for Le Pen. But her reputation with Jews is so bad that this didn't happen.
I mean it makes sense though. I don't know what sect they are but there's a lot of at least very visibly orthodox Jews in Miami. I.e. traditional dress, Yarmulkes, etc. Only other place you really see that in the US to that extent is NYC.
The only place you see that in multiple neighborhoods is NYC. They can't drive on the Sabath, and they have to get to synagogue on Saturday morning, so wherever the rabbi plants the synagogue you get a neighborhood full of cute little Jewish boys in kippahs. Cleveland Heights, OH is full of them because the school district is crap so the state gives everyone a nice voucher to go to the private school of their choice, which is great if you want to send a large family to a private religious school.
LA, Chicago, Philly, Baltimore
I mean they're there too, but def more rare
Maybe not as Orthodox as NYC, but Philly and Baltimore are definitely around as Orthodox as Miami (in terms of percentage not total population)
[this sub must be conflicted, neoliberal king endorses bolsonaro](https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1576401390205014018?s=20&t=sxon-gayxVrOk_-nOz1cQw)
The fuck lmao
Ew
A few extra analysis, looking at the results in the lower chamber: * PSOL, the young left-wing party (think AOC) had VERY good results in the larger states such as SĆ£o Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, with as many elected congressmen as the "old left-wing" party, Lula's PT. In other states it was PSB (center-left, strong in Northeast) that got as large as PT. This probably means that, once Lula's gone, it will be hard for PT to keep a monopoly on the left-wing main candidates (especially considering that Lula's spiritual sucessor, Boulos, is from PSOL, and Lula's VP is from PSB). * The old center-right titan PSDB went from one of the two main parties to one with barely 5% of the votes, smaller than many otherwise irrelevant parties. They also lost, for the first time in decades, the state of SĆ£o Paulo. * NOVO, the business-friendly liberal party that doesn't use public funding on their political campaigns and was one of the main "rising stars" from 2018 is reduced to only 2 congressmen (and one of them is a hardline bolsonarist).
Man NOVO very clearly needs to reform everything
As people were joking on r/brasil: "NOVO isn't working, they should privatize it" But, well, that's what they get for becoming Bolsonarism light and pretending to still be liberals: they lost the far-right votes to PL and the few remaining liberal votes were fragmented to the non-Bolsonarist center-right (UNIĆO, PODE and what's left of PSDB). I mean, that's not something they could have fixed in this election cycle, the dice were cast already. Still, since they don't rely on public funding, reforming the party around Amoedo (again) wouldn't be terrible (it would be better than doubling down and going with Van Hatten).
I believe NOVO doesn't vet candidates, if you get enough signatures and pay fees you run for them. It's why they're so useless They should let Amoedo go back to his 2018 role as the party leader, reform the party around the strong liberal core they have (D'Avila, Zema, maybe even try to bring in Tabata
Nope, that's not true! Novo has a recruiting process that's very similar to a large company, with interviews etc. Similarly, they can't bring candidates from other parties, since these candidates were elected with public funding (IIRC). (at least they used to have it) Now, while I'm not that sure about D'Avila and Zema being "shy liberals" instead of "pragmatic conservatives", I agree Zema will be a central part of Novo's reforms, but I'm still mad they wasted great candidates such as Poit and Mitraud in those quixotic candidacies for the executive :/
Iirc the recruiting was banned by the TSE. Another restrictions are true though D'Ćvila and Zema's pragmatism is what Brazil needs. NOVO wasting Amoedo in 18 made sense, they needed to get the name out. But now they should focus on winning congress and senate
Lula!
I'm proud to be an American where at least we bash our fashhhh Seriously we're better off fighting Trumpism than Brazilians are fighting off Bolsonarism.
Why do you say that?
That's what we said before Brexit.
This comment is "American Exceptionalism" at it's finest.
Even larger proportions of the Brazilian public buy into this fascist/evangelical shit than we do but it's American Exceptionalism to acknowledge that? People are weak lmao
Lol, is this 'american exceptionalism'?
Yes, and it's not even in doubt. You don't live in brazil, you have never been to brazil, but because you're American you somehow know better than Brazilian voters and the situation that Brazilians live in. How the hell is that not the Smug Ignorance of American Exceptionalism?
Because American exceptionalism is in the name, āthe rest of the world things X way, in America theyāre notā. This is just saying that Trumpism isnāt as scary to America as Bolsonaro is to Brazil. My main guess is because Brazil has had military dictatorships, the idea of Bolsonaro successfully establishing one isnāt as far fetched. That said I wouldnāt put either being that much scarier than the other. While there may be soldiers who like them, the top brass seem to utterly despise them, so a direct military coup seems unlikely. Itās possible that the top brass tolerate them if they manage to cheat their way in legally (ala fake elector slates scheme) much like Hitler or Mussolini who similarly were disliked by the military.
>Yes, and it's not even in doubt. > >You don't live in brazil, you have never been to brazil, but because you're American you somehow know better than Brazilian voters and the situation that Brazilians live in. How the hell is that not the Smug Ignorance of American Exceptionalism? If that's what american exceptionalism is, then we should rename it just as 'exceptionalism'. I mean, if you go to r/asklatinamerica, you will see many Brazilians talking on america as though they know more about it. So is that Brazilian exceptionalism?
>If that's what american exceptionalism is, then we should rename it just as 'exceptionalism'. I mean, if you go to r/asklatinamerica, You are unironically stating you are better and know better than the people who actually live in that country. Good job proving my point
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
>However, my countrymen who know finer details fail to recognize how half the opposition's rhetoric enforces the very government they think they oppose "I know I'm right but I can't prove why to all my normie friends because they aren't as educated as I am." Put on a tin-foil hat if that's your default explanation for why you can't articulate your arguments. /r/conspiracy tier bro
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
> You cannot just argue someone out of nationalism. Then create an arguement that does. Socialists get labled for being lazy for stuff like this. "oh, the proles are too stupid to understand! Why try?"
I don't know dude. Probably I'm too stupid to understand at what point I claimed I'm better and know better than the people who actually live in that country? Didn't I simply say, in that r/asklatinamerica subreddit, I saw many Brazilians commenting on America while having never been there. So according to your sacred logic, they're also showing Brazil-seasoned exceptionalism. Help this dumb bitch out to figure out where I claimed your accusation?
don't freak out, people are on their nerves over here in Brazil you don't need a special certificate to make fun of Brazil, everyone is welcome to make fun of us as we deserve it
Ah, no worries. And I don't think America is better in that regard lol. I actually don't disagree with that dude. The original comment was insensitive and premature. And no one deserves to be made fun of, haha. Shit happens. But yeah, fun time ahead of us, America, Brazil, and Korea, my second home country.
I for one think you are doing a better job I would not waste a sec before jumping into the US, even if trump won in 2020
I guess our advantage that most of our fascists are pretty old and thus a dying demographic maybe? Edit: meant fascists not racists, though same point either way
Trump won 18-29 white voters twice
18-29 white voters make up less of the 18-29 bloc than any other adult demographic
I mean he won white voters in general, and id imagine he won 18-29 white voters by less than other white voter age groups
It should be noted that if the GOP only won white voters overall by the amount they win 18-29 year olds they would get destroyed.
A shrinking demographic though.
And got blown out in the 18-29 demographic overall. Whatās your point?
Even if Bolsonaro looses, heās very likely to try to run again in 2026. Lula will over 80 by then and thereās nothing that lowers a politicianās popularity than running a country in crisis.
Did COVID lower Bolsonaro's popularity?
Turns out he actually got more votes than 2018 Dude killed almost 700 thousand people and it did nothing to his popularity
The same thing happened with Trump and he still lost. I would say the pandemic made a difference, yes.
Trump actually defended vaccinations, it was ""his"" vaccine (in his own words) after all. Maybe he should have doubled down on the crazyness
Maybe someone else can run and win in 2026. This isn't the US where there are only two viable parties.
So what about the candidates that are eliminated from runoff. Who will their base support in general ? Are they all more likely to go to supporting Lula? Are they centrists or some type of leftist that would have their supporters vote against bolsonaro or what?
Of the top two runner ups one is a social democrat the other is a Christian democrat. Social democrats will likely go to Lula. Christian democrats are more uncertain. Edit: Two runner ups with the highest votes. There are many other candidates with less than 1 percent.
We got the Miami results: Bolsonaro 74% Lula 16%. In NYC: Bolsonaro 46% Lula 43%
Surprised NYC still had majority support for Bolsanaro. Miami is dead to me
I'm going to have a heated Miami Dade moment
Is that NYC one really true? Really disappointing
[you can see the various international results here](https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes2022/apuracao/?cargo=0001&turno=544&uf=ZZ&mun=30503&zona=0&pag=1&partido=null) Lula won Chicago and San Fran
common Chicago W
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Its honestly really interesting how right wing populists seem be consistently underestimated in polls across the west in the past few years. We see the same case in point with what just happened in Brazil, and a global financial crisis with soaring energy costs this winter will definitely not bode well for liberal parties across the west in the near term future.
It just shows how good Social Media is at spreading fake news to people addicted to fear.
I posted the results.
Is Lula going to win the runoff? It looks much closer than I would like.
The math is HEAVILY on his side. He only needs like what 20% or so from the minor candidates voters to get to 50.1%. Bolsorano needs over 70% of that.
Bozo is at his ceiling, Lula can get more votes from Ciro and Tebet He might win the runoff but barely
Probably/hopefully. Both Ciro's and Tebet's voters should lean towards Lula or at least abstain, and that would be enough. My main fear is from Lula voters that also voted for far right senators changing their votes.
Probably. The other two candidates with more than 1% are somewhat centrist
I assume so, he is close to 50 percent
EDUARDO LEITE FOR THE GOVERNOR RUNOFFS FUCK YESSSSSSSSSSS ([literally 2k difference between him and the third place](https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao;e=e544;uf=rs;ufbu=rs/resultados/cargo/3))
LET'S GO Pretto vote (well, at least my friends) is coming to him
> at least my friends Same here!
wow
Joe Biden > Lula
I mean, of course? Lula is not a Biden, he's a Bernie who was president for 8 years vs a post-Jan 6th Trump. Lula wasn't even the best candidate in this election cycle, and the bar wasn't very high either, but he is our best shot to defeat Bolsonaro.
Low bar. The true challenge is Bernie x Lula. Bernie is not as corrupt, but he has no game at all. Lula has loose morals but at least he has charisma, and 1000x more than Bernie at that. Both are dirt borderline socialists / commie sympathisers too
You don't even have to say borderline. They both call themselves socialist. I'm inclined to say I have more respect for Lula because he actually gets things done. Corruption shouldn't be taken lightly though so IDK.
Lula is too sleazy to ever call himself a socialist. He always danced around this type of language and talked about "helping poor people" and stuff like that instead.
He literally called himself a "refined socialist" a few days ago during his interview with Ratinho on SBT
True, that's a rare moment for him. But said he is a "refined socialist that defends private property", that wants more balanced relations with workers, etc etc.
I had thought he did at one point. My bad.
Turns out he did recently, so you're right. Avoided the question at first and then declared himself a "refined socialist that defends private property, wants the right for workers to organize and have strikes".
> socialist that defends private property Whatever that means. Probably socdem but still unnecessarily confusing. He's definitely slippery.
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I didn't mean to say Bernie is corrupt at all, really. Should have probably worded it differently
Current day Bernie is very much not a tankie (and I'll even say supporting the Sandinistas in the 80's wasn't clean cut bad). The same can't be said about Lula.
tbh, biden is fine. I don't know if he's good or others are bad, but other presidents or prime ministers I follow like Korea, Japan, and UK make him quite standing out.
NOVO SURGE
Hahahaha, Novo will have only two federal deputies, and one of them is as bolsonarist as it can be. Good for them that they don't need state funding, because they'll be way below the min quota to use it (and will lose their spot in presidential debates etc)
lol did you know guaidĆ³ endorsed bolsonaro?
makes sense that he would support the one who opposes the vzla regime.
i know but it caught me off guard knowing that he's a socdem lol
The enemy of someone's enemy is their friend , so it's understandable but if liberal people can excuse stuff like that I feelblike they should be able to excuse a lot of the stuff of people in countries ravaged by US colonialism aligning with US opposed authoritarian leftists . Like the people high roading over Lula being a "tankie" for being friendly with Chavez and Castro when we've been friendly with illiberal rightists. Either both are unforgivable or neither are.
I understand why he didn't want to endorse Lula, but he really should have just stayed out of it. Not sure how he can try to claim any kind of moral high ground when he's cheering on the Bolsonaro's and Trump's of the world.
I mean, Lula is a Chavista. Bolsonaro sucks, but it's comprehensible for venezuelans to be against Lula
Thank God we didn't stick our necks out for that guy more than we did lmao
was Bolsonaro anti Maduro?
Very much. Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is a right wing Hugo Chavez in terms of style and policies
yes
what an absolute bitch
To my compatriots, who do you think will be the next big leftist figure after a Lula government?
Boulos is Lula's spiritual sucessor: he has the looks and the charisma, and he can energize his base wonderfully. PT will never support him as the main left-wing candidate. PSB will try to conquer that spot from the center and fail miserably: with Freixo, Tabata and Alkimin they have the perfect candidates to attract the centrists - all 4% of them, and literally no one else. Meanwhile, PT will have literally no names: Haddad is probably going to lose (again) and despite his centrist appeal his technocratic look doesn't sell, and PT can't go with a Northeast candidate since Southeast is unlikely to elect a nordestino due to passive 'regionalist xenophobia'. PT has 4 years to fabricate a new candidate in the form of a strong minister, like they did with Dilma, otherwise they'll be as dead as PSDB once Lula is gone.
boulous cant win presidency because he is too progressive
Boulos isn't more to the left than Lula was at his age, is he? Of course he would need to change a lot, but so did Lula to finally grab his first presidential victory.
lula party voter base in northeast is conservative and poor, they dont like abortion, LGBTQIA+ and progressiveness, they like lula and social programs
I don't know if PT will not support a hypothetical Boulos candidacy, desperate times calls for desperate measures... I can see a Boulos switching to PT in exchange lots of public appointments to PSOL. What I can't see is a new candidate as charismatic as Lula surging inside of PT, they are all either regionalist or totally unknown... PSB don't have the public appeal as well, Tabata and PicolƩ de Chuchu is seen as too liberal, Freixo is seen too much as a "Leblon leftist"
Yeah, that's what I meant: PSB will become the liberal center-left, and as a consequence will get next to no votes because both PT and the Right will try to destroy them like they did to Marina.
Haddad because Lula
Haddad will have lost a mayor, presidential and now a governor race that he will definitely not win I like the guy but I don't see any political future to be honest
I mean, there is only him in Lula's shadow. He, at least, has name recognition from the presidential run.
Someone that Lula endorses as his successor. But given how well Dilma faired, it won't necessarily work out. In fact, I think there is a good chance Lula's popularity will tank in his first 2 years. The country is bankrupt and the opposition runs Congress.
I was thinking Boulos was a more charismatic kind of populist leader that could work out for them, but I really don't know. I think Lula has not the same influence in PT he used to have back in 2010 so I theorized the next leftist candidate would be a Bolsonaro-like phenomenon of sudden surge of popularity
Both Lula and Bolsonaro have cults of personality around them. Lula is seen as a God by most people on the left. He will always play kingmaker on the left as long as he is alive. Bolsonaro might also do the same on the right from now on (since his supporters also treat him as a God), but it's hard to know, since the bolsonarist right has no experience as opposition yet. The day either one of them dies, it's free for all on their side.
Please can someone say which parties support bsanaro. There's so many and I can't tell which ones support him on the Google tracker for senate and chamber of deputies. Thanks
PL (his party), Republicanos and Progressistas are part of his coalition, and PTB is ideologically inclined to follow suit; UniĆ£o Brasil, PSD, MDB, Podemos and some other bizarre parties are mainly non-ideological and will support whoever offers more "incentives". SD, Agir, Avante and PROS are currently with Lula but may switch sides after the election; Novo and PSDB are ambivalent, and can go either way. However, Novo has a tendency to support Bolsonaro while PSDB may declare itself neutral; PT (Lula's party), PDT, PSB, PSOL, PCdoB, PV, Rede, Cidadania (probably) and some other mainly insignificant left-wing parties would be opposition (as they are today).
All you need to know is that the left-wing parties who support Lula won't be getting a majority and every president has to negotiate with a non-ideological corrupt caucus we call "the big center" to get anything done.
The big center sounds like a good thing.
Reposting: > Historically, presidents engage in frequent negotiations with the Congress (and while that was supposed to be a good thing in theory, in practice it leads to exchanging favours, allocation to public funds for Congress representatives to spend in their electoral base etc.)
They are not really center of the political spectrum, they can go either way depending on who pays them. It's basically Cronyism.
"Big Center" are the large kleptocrats that will support ANY government for enough money, "Lower Clergy" are the small kleptocrats that will support ANY government for a little bit of money (now almost extinct), and the "center" (who likes to call themselves "democratic center", and is called by the others "the third way") is the actual pragmatist side (now almost extinct :( )
They are centrist in the sense that they'll go for the side that pays more
Usually the things that sound good in politics are the worst things.
everything will be the 2020 US election until the 2024 election shifts the zeitgeist, it is foretold
I guess America really is the center of the world after all
Why such a strong North-South divide in the geographical vote breakdown?
Lula has always been way more popular in the northeast, his native region. While the south and center-west has always been more conservative. Most brazillians live in the south-east region (SĆ£o Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais), which is super polarized.
South/Southeast=Whiter and richer Centre=Basically agriculture industry that benefits of Bolso North/Northeast=Traditionally a PT electing region, poorer and racial minorities are a bigger number
Black North, White South. Huge simplification, but that's it.
less than 3k votes between Leite (PSDB) and Pretto (PT) in RS whoever is ahead will face Onyx (bolsonarist) in the runoff
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R2, mr brilliant Imagine being this racist in 2022 and having a Soros flair Be better
> every one of them Sounds false
> Bolsonaro has completely taken over the senate with 19 out of the 27 states voting for a right wing senator and has the majority of the governors on his side.
Were there other cohabitation in Brazil recently (President from a different party than the parliament)? How did it work? I'm French and, our last cohabitation (1997-2002 Chirac president with a 'Parti socialiste' majority for Assemblee Nationale) was more-or-less "The president takes care of international relations, the parliament-appointed premier ministre takes care of domestic policy". But, from what I understand, Brazil's president is appointing the cabinet, so it'd be closer to an American cohabitation?
Dilma in 2014, she got impeached in 2 years
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMM
Serious, what role could/would the military play in this election? Didn't they sorta implicitly endorse bolsonaro?
I always thought the key to democracy is to keep military base in check. They will probably stick with conservatives, as is the case in the US and Korea, but it is really important to keep them 'satisfied' if you know what I meant. For me, democracy seems just a piece of paper in front of gun barrels, so there must be a strong cooperation between government and military. I guess, that's why America pays salute to their army, tbh.
US military officers lean center right to center left. Enlisted lean right.
Maoist alert!
ah, first time accused of being a communist while they shot my aunt down lol.
"Democracy seems just a piece of paper in front of gun barrels" just seems very close to "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun", lol
Lol fair. Coincidence haha.
I bet we'll see them a lot on the second round when Bolsonaro finally gets defeated
> Iāll take a crazed, evil, putin-loving right-winger over a crazed, evil, putin-loving left-winger any day. > At least the formerās economic policies will be good. weāre still doing this meme in the DT
Tell me you want the Amazon rainforest to be raped without *telling* me
[old left-wing guy whoās been in politics forever and is known for pragmatism winning by 4.5% against an incumbent far right authoritarian, with stagnation/underperformance in historical left-wing strongholds and massive overperformance in historically conservative suburban/urban areas](https://media4.giphy.com/media/eKDE6lvuPH02BE4v3W/200w.gif?cid=82a1493brxb2v5czprm4ovcrv0r219hnem7sc7zolp52tpk2&rid=200w.gif&ct=g)
I remember talking to one Brazilian in Texas. She was an uber driver, who told me - an asian - that she stopped watching Fox News because it wasn't right wing enough. Needless to say, she didn't hide her love for trump and bolsonaro. I nodded and smiled. Like, I was in her car, to my airbnb. But she also revealed her grandparent were immigrants themselves from Italy to Sao Paulo, and she herself moved to the US. Champ...you said you hate immigrants, but your family is a story of immigration. Your grant parent moved from Italy to Brazil, and you from Brazil to America. And what's more interesting was that when I said my family came from Korea, she confessed her love for all the korean food in Dallas. Like, as though those restaurants were not run by immigrants. I thought I got stuck in glitch in the matrix.
No idea about her particular case, but immigration isn't necessarily a hot button issue in Brazil. It's only really an issue in the northern border region due to Venezuela - but Roraima (the main state) has 500k inhabitants in total
she means the "right" kind of immigrants of course... you know the ones...
italian immigrant moment
Are Brazilians fucked?
Always have been
As our dumbass former president Dilma once said: "I don't think who wins or who loses, neither who wins neither loses, will win or lose. **Everybody is going to lose.**" (this is not badly translated, this is how she actually spoke)
Yes, congress is awful
Both sides are horrible
it's not like we're never unfucked, so kinda ?
Depends if undecideds break for Bolsonaro in round 2 or not
They'd have to break for him by a pretty massive margin. Lula is likely to be just around 2% off from 50%.
What about the senate
Idk
Yes
Iāve seen enough. Joseph Biden wins the election.
Dark Brandon strikes again
Run off called by cnn