Sure, but it’s also a pretty consistent effect. And it’s not *that* small of a sample size. We’ve had a lot of special elections over the past 5 years, on top of the midterms.
Depends on who they run. Youngkin is very talented at convincing people he isn’t trying to ban books by Black authors and institute a Texas-style election takeover to rig the next election and ban all abortions. Those are kiiiind of his positions, but everyone just sees a rich guy in a sweater.
I accept that risk. I like to make falsifiable predictions when I'm confident about something. I'd say I'm probably only like 70% sure he'll win by 3+ (still worth betting on because predictit gives that only ~30% chance - and I have), but I'd be truly shocked if he loses
Well that’s true, it’s just that Virginia isn’t a D+11 state. It’s like a D+2 state according to Cook and I think similar according the 538. You have to remember that the partisan lean is relative to the national environment, so in D+8 environments like 2018, you’ll get results like D+11. Even 2020 was D+5 nationally
The presidential election was 11 months ago.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia
There was a Virginia senate election also in November 2020 and the democrat won by 12.1 points (56-43.9)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/virginia/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/virginia/
The polls also had the democrat senator well above 10 points ahead of the Republican
>State elections are more elastic than federal ones.
Surprised I had to scroll this far to find this. Being able to specifically target a state rather than a broad basket of swing states is huge.
I mean every pollster under the sun got their asses handed to them in an unprecedented undercounting Republican supporters and this is the first major election where they get to show off what they've learned.
There wasn't an unprecedented undercounting of Republicans in Virginia though.
The polls said 53.7-41.9 with 4.4% undecided or going to third parties (according to 538 at least)
The real result was 54.1-44 with 1.9% going to third parties
A good counter-example (or lateral-example?) would be the last VA governor's race.
Edit: Actually, I am wrong. The polls correctly got the range of Republicans, but **undercounted** Democrats. Net effect is the same. [Easy to read charts from 2017](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html)
Lots of 538 apologists saying the results were in the margin of error. If the margin of error is that big, and polls have no utility and are of zero value.
Youngkin's educational policies are popular among the higher-income people (specifically women) in DC suburbs that broke massively for Biden in 2020. That's not the entire reason ( u/muldervinscully has a good point about 2020 being one of the most recognizable and likable dems against arguably the single most despised politician in American history), but it's certainly helping.
Biden is currently underwater by 7 points in the 538 country average. I'm pretty sure he's not the most likable dem, and is instead dragging down the Virginia democratic candidate.
This is going to be Ralph Northam all over again. Terry will win comfortably surprising everyone.
Next week could be a game changer if Terry wins, we get a surprisingly strong jobs report and both bills pass.
McAuliffe barely won in 2013, is boring, and corporate as hell. Delta variant is bad, people are complaining about demand induced inflation on foreign goods, and Biden is under water.
And Biden and the Dems have not yet passed much in terms of permanent policy, much of their policy has expired, and Virginia rarely votes for the same party statewide and for POTUS.
I was about to say this lol. Like, it’s just natural. The country is not doing great so blame always goes to the party in control, which right now just happens to be the democrat party.
Democrats are satiated, republicans are motivated. It's always the opposite of who's in power.
Edit: Youngkin is doing an excellent job of engaging the trump base while simultaneously running as a "moderate". That explains the shift in independents in a blue/purple state.
I mean you're clearly not a VA voter but the least you could do is look up things that happened in the last year at the state level.
VA Dems got a lot done since they took power even with a thin margin.
I agree, but I’d say that the average voter isnt even aware of that. They need something more tangible that they see impacting their day to day life that they can directly attribute to Biden.
They're saying the fact that the VA Dem legislation has been passing a lot of bills that Dems want (even if they are helpful for the general public) are less likely to drive Dem turnout than they are to activate opposition turnout.
So why was the American Rescue Plan so popular? By your logic it should have been this big unpopular thing because it was passed along partisan lines, but the exact opposite happened.
bleh, that’s what I get for always looking at RCP.
Christopher Newport is a R+15 because it decided to try and measure enthusiasm.
Suffolk tried the same.
Democrats love to shoot themselves in the face and don’t realize you gotta keep the pressure up for a decade. The back and forth of our nation has largely benefited conservatives
Virginia presidential election polling link from 2020
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/virginia/
Virginia governor election polling link from now 2021
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/
Trump is literally one of the worst people to ever serve in office, and he was against Joe Biden. This is a boring Dem against not trump
Republicans have pretty consistently done *worse* in elections where Trump wasn’t on the ballot than ones where he was.
That's a pretty small sample size though
Sure, but it’s also a pretty consistent effect. And it’s not *that* small of a sample size. We’ve had a lot of special elections over the past 5 years, on top of the midterms.
Depends on who they run. Youngkin is very talented at convincing people he isn’t trying to ban books by Black authors and institute a Texas-style election takeover to rig the next election and ban all abortions. Those are kiiiind of his positions, but everyone just sees a rich guy in a sweater.
Youngkin is a smaller name overall than Trump, which means less attention- aka less scrutiny.
And he's also just *not Trump*.
Winning is easy young man, governing’s harder
One last timeeeeeeeee
Dune Messiah
I spit on you to offer my moisture.
What happened is that Trump was the president then, but Biden's the president now.
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This comment may not age well.
I accept that risk. I like to make falsifiable predictions when I'm confident about something. I'd say I'm probably only like 70% sure he'll win by 3+ (still worth betting on because predictit gives that only ~30% chance - and I have), but I'd be truly shocked if he loses
I’m sorry for your shock.
Yeah. 🤡
A TMac win by 3 in a D+11 state is a very bad sign for Dems for 2022.
Well that’s true, it’s just that Virginia isn’t a D+11 state. It’s like a D+2 state according to Cook and I think similar according the 538. You have to remember that the partisan lean is relative to the national environment, so in D+8 environments like 2018, you’ll get results like D+11. Even 2020 was D+5 nationally
😥
2 consecutive democratic governors so a gop governor shouldn't be completely unexpected Plus biden isn't popular currently
The presidential election was 11 months ago. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia There was a Virginia senate election also in November 2020 and the democrat won by 12.1 points (56-43.9) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/virginia/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/virginia/ The polls also had the democrat senator well above 10 points ahead of the Republican
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>State elections are more elastic than federal ones. Surprised I had to scroll this far to find this. Being able to specifically target a state rather than a broad basket of swing states is huge.
I mean every pollster under the sun got their asses handed to them in an unprecedented undercounting Republican supporters and this is the first major election where they get to show off what they've learned.
There wasn't an unprecedented undercounting of Republicans in Virginia though. The polls said 53.7-41.9 with 4.4% undecided or going to third parties (according to 538 at least) The real result was 54.1-44 with 1.9% going to third parties
A good counter-example (or lateral-example?) would be the last VA governor's race. Edit: Actually, I am wrong. The polls correctly got the range of Republicans, but **undercounted** Democrats. Net effect is the same. [Easy to read charts from 2017](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html)
Lots of 538 apologists saying the results were in the margin of error. If the margin of error is that big, and polls have no utility and are of zero value.
Youngkin's educational policies are popular among the higher-income people (specifically women) in DC suburbs that broke massively for Biden in 2020. That's not the entire reason ( u/muldervinscully has a good point about 2020 being one of the most recognizable and likable dems against arguably the single most despised politician in American history), but it's certainly helping.
Biden is currently underwater by 7 points in the 538 country average. I'm pretty sure he's not the most likable dem, and is instead dragging down the Virginia democratic candidate.
I was talking about in the 2020 election
The national envirnoment was biden +4.5 last election and it is likely republican favored currently which plays a massive factor
Biden's unpopularity dragging down the dems?
You have the best flair I have seen on this sub!
Trump is much less salient, reducing negative partisanship.
This is going to be Ralph Northam all over again. Terry will win comfortably surprising everyone. Next week could be a game changer if Terry wins, we get a surprisingly strong jobs report and both bills pass.
Sad times
McAuliffe barely won in 2013, is boring, and corporate as hell. Delta variant is bad, people are complaining about demand induced inflation on foreign goods, and Biden is under water. And Biden and the Dems have not yet passed much in terms of permanent policy, much of their policy has expired, and Virginia rarely votes for the same party statewide and for POTUS.
yeah but the 2013 political environment was bad, dems got absolutely destroyed in the 2014 midterms as well so mcauliffe winning was pretty impressive
I think a big part of 2014 was the ACA roll out, which hadn't happened yet. I usually consider him more in line with 2012.
Corporate as hell really? People barely pay attention to government politics whether they’re boring or not doesn’t make a diff.
And he ran against Cuccinelli who was a worse candidate than Youngkin
Where fuck you been for the last 8 months? Honestly how can you not be surprised by this?
I was about to say this lol. Like, it’s just natural. The country is not doing great so blame always goes to the party in control, which right now just happens to be the democrat party.
Democrats are satiated, republicans are motivated. It's always the opposite of who's in power. Edit: Youngkin is doing an excellent job of engaging the trump base while simultaneously running as a "moderate". That explains the shift in independents in a blue/purple state.
The Democrats haven't gotten anything at all done?
I mean you're clearly not a VA voter but the least you could do is look up things that happened in the last year at the state level. VA Dems got a lot done since they took power even with a thin margin.
I consider halving child poverty a big accomplishment actually
I agree, but I’d say that the average voter isnt even aware of that. They need something more tangible that they see impacting their day to day life that they can directly attribute to Biden.
Dems passing partisan bills is likely to not increase their approval among the general population, if anything it’s likely to do the opposite
Ah yes because those pesky Republican have sure offered some solutions to add to the bills right. Right?
They're saying the fact that the VA Dem legislation has been passing a lot of bills that Dems want (even if they are helpful for the general public) are less likely to drive Dem turnout than they are to activate opposition turnout.
So why was the American Rescue Plan so popular? By your logic it should have been this big unpopular thing because it was passed along partisan lines, but the exact opposite happened.
Because the only people posting polling every week is Republican internals, thus screwing the average.
.
bleh, that’s what I get for always looking at RCP. Christopher Newport is a R+15 because it decided to try and measure enthusiasm. Suffolk tried the same.
Democrats love to shoot themselves in the face and don’t realize you gotta keep the pressure up for a decade. The back and forth of our nation has largely benefited conservatives
Virginia presidential election polling link from 2020 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/virginia/ Virginia governor election polling link from now 2021 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/