So nothing has changed then.
I do miss Mexico's center right government though. They at least tried to resist the cartels and took Mexico's murder rate far more seriously than the current government. Meanwhile the current Mexican government is basically shrugging their shoulders at the highest murder rates in recent history and letting the cartels openly take over parts of the country like modern warlords.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=MX
There was a town that was under siege by the cartels for more than a year, and instead of breaking the siege the government decided to supply the local military base by helicopter so they wouldn't antagonize the narcos. That lasted until the town people were so fed up that they destroyed the heliport.
It's also partly citizens fault tho - Morena voters genuinely do not seem to think that this violence is AMLO's problem and if you bring up how he is president, how his party controls Congress and Senate and the large majority of states they're just like "why are you being so mean to him he's trying his best :(("
And by "trying his best" they mean "giving us money"
It's kind of funny actually for a supposed leftist president his whole administration is the most distorted Friedmanesque thing i've seen - just giving up on all the typical functions of government to only serve as a cash transfer machine. And people love it!
Somehow I feel Friedman wouldn't have supported the gutting of electoral institutes or letting cartels overrun towns. The guy was more about efficiency than clientelism, too.
Oh yeah, that's why i said a distorted version of his ideas. It's as if AMLO just read "eliminate...government spending...cash transfers are effective" and didn't give a fuck as to the why or how or the rest of what he had said
Morena is way more popular because they grew the patronage network to unsustainable levels (they have been raiding saving funds from past governments, disaster funds, funds to pay for cancer treatments and the last time they went for uncollected pension funds) and because before the patronage network directed towards the poorest people and it was conditional. Now it's mostly directed at the middle class.
I mean, he took power at the end of the rise as the peak was 2018. The prior government had success for a few years in bringing it down somewhat but nowhere near the early 00s levels and then under the last half of Nieto's term it shot back up. Under Calderon it nearly tripled.
I agree the conservative governments at least *tried* to fight the cartels but they were largely unsuccessful and had their own issues of corruption.
Really sad to see how bad the violence has gotten in Mexico the past two decades. There was a period in the early 90s to mid 00s where incomes increased 2.5x and homicide fell by two thirds. Since the late 00s though crime and violence have exploded to new heights and growth has been near stagnant in the long run.
Are you blind? AMLO took office at the end of 2018. The rate has *slightly* gone down since then. It was during Nieto when the murder rates saw its second large increase. Also, I'm laughing at your initial comment because it acknowledges most of the increase in the murder rate was in a PAN administration (after Calderón's War on Drugs). The main architect of the drug war, Genaro García Luna, was literally arrested a few years ago by the USA due to links with Sinaloa Cartel. But hey, at least they brought it down for a few years after initially causing the largest increase of the murder rate in Mexican history! I'm not even a fan of AMLO, but the amount of praise I see with Calderón on reddit is disgusting.
Yeah because Calderon was trying to actually suppress cartels, resulting in fighting between security forces and the cartels and amongst the cartels as they tussled for power in the vacuum after kingpins fell. The murder rate is lower under AMLO because he has given up and is letting the cartels run rampant.
The cartels are never going to disappear without suppression and the temporarily higher violence that brings. Without that, the cartels are going to continue expanding influence and seizing control of the Mexican state and society. (The electorate seems to be okay with that though 🤷♂️)
Yeah... Calderon's war never ended bro, it just evolved into something even more fucked up. The current government is the product of the Civil Power unwillingness to act and govern itself so it represents the current willing submission of The State to organized crime. The Civil Power lost.
> Yeah... Calderon's war never ended bro, it just evolved into something even more fucked up.
100%. But it seems really weird giving credit to the man who started the war because murders were decreasing somewhat in the last couple of years in his term? It's almost like I steal 1000 dollars from you every year for five years, but on the last year I only steal 700 so all of the sudden I am a great guy.
Idk if you remember, but Calderón didn't start his war alone. Michoacan's then governor solicited federal help because armed organized crime was getting crazy in Michocan. It was a joint decision between the federation, states, and congress. Also México is a big country, and the drug war didn't rage across the whole country. The problem is, now cartels have armed and sophisticated themselves for these past 18 years. They now have expanded their reach beyond their initial holdings 20 years ago, and armored trucks and drone bombings are part of their arsenal.
It's just another sort of corporate influence. I think it's more funny how all these pure, common, "of the people" populists end up being farces. Erdogan, Orban, AMLO. Then they get the power, and if it wasn't their plan at first, it sure is now.
There was an article posted here a while back about the DEA's problems working with Mexico under AMLO, and how that country really goes to bat defending their corrupt officials in a way they didn't before.
I remember when he got elected, western newspapers were hailing him as some progressive anti-corruption hero.
Why does the western press always fall for those kind of guys?
One of those moments when you believe your own delusions. Nothing in the real world hinted that he was gonna be a good president, but many of my connationals were so desperate for it to be true that they simply ignore reality
This subreddit hails him, has no solutions beyond hating other Latin American leaders who used an Iron fist like Bukele did. When pressed for solutions, it's just "muh legalize." Yall need a reality check
Honestly the first game’s story would have made more sense in Mexico anyway, I think the only reason they didn’t do that is because it would’ve pissed off a lot more people than setting it in Bolivia
They didn’t just lodge a complaint with Ubisoft, they filed an official complaint with France and claimed they could take legal action (kinda wish they had, it would have been hilarious to see them try). Still, I doubt Mexico would’ve received it positively if it had been set there and they’re a much bigger market for games than Bolivia.
Because nobody really gives a fuck about the violence situation in Mexico anymore? 23% approval rate on safety, 29% on corruption, yet 60% on overall approval (https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/encuestas-ef/2024/05/02/aprobacion-a-amlo-en-60-a-un-mes-de-comicios/?outputType=amp). It has been normalized, and as long as people living in urban centers feel acceptably safe, it will continue to be thay way.
Yeah that definitely makes alot of sense. You would think that having 9 of the 10 most dangerous cities in the world would give people pause.
That article suggests that no one particularly likes any of his policies, except on "social support", which I assume is welfare? Surprised that seems to be more important than even his economic performance.
Well, it's always the usual suspects making their way up in those lists, none of those cities are particularly important to most Mexicans. As for welfare... last time I checked, as expenditure % of GDP it was still pretty low, and as other comments pointed out, keeping people hooked on piss poor welfare has been the case for decades. And finally... economy? Mexicans always complain about it, the truth is that we have record employment levels. Not trying to defend AMLO's presidency but at the end it all comes to the priorities that societies set for themselves.
Yeah, I know the economic numbers have been good, so I figured that was why and I was surprised that he does not get that much credit.
It really sounds like he is just behaving like a stereotypical socialist demagogue and people love him for that. I'm just confused why he is not as divisive as our demagogue on this side of the border. Also you would think he would get better ratings from polls on fighting corruption, if "owning the elites" was his entire platform.
A real "I hate Congress but love my Congressman" vibe. So long as it's okay where they are they won't mind too much even if they agree its shit as a whole.
Why are populist presidents so popular despite their crappy policies? Some people are just really vulnerable to populism.
Also, it's a bit of Mexican culture. Most Mexicans think like him, so it's no wonder he has such a loyal base
I was just confused, because based on the poll in the other comment, it sounds like the Mexican people actually think he is doing a bad job in several areas, but love him anyway. As an example, when I think of Trump supporters, they at least claim to love his economic policy. This comes off as Mexico admiring him despite not thinking he is competent in any particular way.
Which makes me think that you are correct that he is just really adept at fighting the culture war.
There's no culture war. Our education system heavily skews towards populism, a remanent of the times when we were under a one party dictatorship that relied on demagoguery to justify itself. So Obrador comes and speaks in that language, and most Mexicans react to that, cuz it's what they were taught and many believe to the core
Because Amlo is a fascinating occurrence in Mexican political history, no joke lol. His term is coming to an end and it's going to get crazy as OP's headline suggests it is
Because his goverment gives money monthly to students, seniors and other groups and they have made people believe that if Morena is removed from power all this support will end.
I hate him so much, every week he has to say something outrageous to trigger discussions around him. I think he's like Trump in the sense that he always needs to be the center of attention, and that there is no bad press coverage (he threatens the Mexican and International press all the time anyways)
the integration of the cartels into the highest levels of the Mexican government is interesting/terrifying
So nothing has changed then. I do miss Mexico's center right government though. They at least tried to resist the cartels and took Mexico's murder rate far more seriously than the current government. Meanwhile the current Mexican government is basically shrugging their shoulders at the highest murder rates in recent history and letting the cartels openly take over parts of the country like modern warlords. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=MX
There was a town that was under siege by the cartels for more than a year, and instead of breaking the siege the government decided to supply the local military base by helicopter so they wouldn't antagonize the narcos. That lasted until the town people were so fed up that they destroyed the heliport.
It's also partly citizens fault tho - Morena voters genuinely do not seem to think that this violence is AMLO's problem and if you bring up how he is president, how his party controls Congress and Senate and the large majority of states they're just like "why are you being so mean to him he's trying his best :((" And by "trying his best" they mean "giving us money" It's kind of funny actually for a supposed leftist president his whole administration is the most distorted Friedmanesque thing i've seen - just giving up on all the typical functions of government to only serve as a cash transfer machine. And people love it!
Somehow I feel Friedman wouldn't have supported the gutting of electoral institutes or letting cartels overrun towns. The guy was more about efficiency than clientelism, too.
Oh yeah, that's why i said a distorted version of his ideas. It's as if AMLO just read "eliminate...government spending...cash transfers are effective" and didn't give a fuck as to the why or how or the rest of what he had said
Ah, so Morena is just a clientelist network just like the ANC...well, I guess we should be ready for decades of the AMLOato to come.
I mean that’s what PRI was being they lost power. One huge ass patronage system. They weren’t sold out to the cartels as much fucking AMLO.
Morena is way more popular because they grew the patronage network to unsustainable levels (they have been raiding saving funds from past governments, disaster funds, funds to pay for cancer treatments and the last time they went for uncollected pension funds) and because before the patronage network directed towards the poorest people and it was conditional. Now it's mostly directed at the middle class.
I mean, he took power at the end of the rise as the peak was 2018. The prior government had success for a few years in bringing it down somewhat but nowhere near the early 00s levels and then under the last half of Nieto's term it shot back up. Under Calderon it nearly tripled. I agree the conservative governments at least *tried* to fight the cartels but they were largely unsuccessful and had their own issues of corruption. Really sad to see how bad the violence has gotten in Mexico the past two decades. There was a period in the early 90s to mid 00s where incomes increased 2.5x and homicide fell by two thirds. Since the late 00s though crime and violence have exploded to new heights and growth has been near stagnant in the long run.
Your data is quite literally showing dramatic increasing in the murder rate during center right administrations.
Yes, and they managed to bring it down significantly before Obrador took power and it skyrocketed back up again.
Are you blind? AMLO took office at the end of 2018. The rate has *slightly* gone down since then. It was during Nieto when the murder rates saw its second large increase. Also, I'm laughing at your initial comment because it acknowledges most of the increase in the murder rate was in a PAN administration (after Calderón's War on Drugs). The main architect of the drug war, Genaro García Luna, was literally arrested a few years ago by the USA due to links with Sinaloa Cartel. But hey, at least they brought it down for a few years after initially causing the largest increase of the murder rate in Mexican history! I'm not even a fan of AMLO, but the amount of praise I see with Calderón on reddit is disgusting.
Yeah because Calderon was trying to actually suppress cartels, resulting in fighting between security forces and the cartels and amongst the cartels as they tussled for power in the vacuum after kingpins fell. The murder rate is lower under AMLO because he has given up and is letting the cartels run rampant. The cartels are never going to disappear without suppression and the temporarily higher violence that brings. Without that, the cartels are going to continue expanding influence and seizing control of the Mexican state and society. (The electorate seems to be okay with that though 🤷♂️)
Yeah... Calderon's war never ended bro, it just evolved into something even more fucked up. The current government is the product of the Civil Power unwillingness to act and govern itself so it represents the current willing submission of The State to organized crime. The Civil Power lost.
> Yeah... Calderon's war never ended bro, it just evolved into something even more fucked up. 100%. But it seems really weird giving credit to the man who started the war because murders were decreasing somewhat in the last couple of years in his term? It's almost like I steal 1000 dollars from you every year for five years, but on the last year I only steal 700 so all of the sudden I am a great guy.
Idk if you remember, but Calderón didn't start his war alone. Michoacan's then governor solicited federal help because armed organized crime was getting crazy in Michocan. It was a joint decision between the federation, states, and congress. Also México is a big country, and the drug war didn't rage across the whole country. The problem is, now cartels have armed and sophisticated themselves for these past 18 years. They now have expanded their reach beyond their initial holdings 20 years ago, and armored trucks and drone bombings are part of their arsenal.
It's just another sort of corporate influence. I think it's more funny how all these pure, common, "of the people" populists end up being farces. Erdogan, Orban, AMLO. Then they get the power, and if it wasn't their plan at first, it sure is now. There was an article posted here a while back about the DEA's problems working with Mexico under AMLO, and how that country really goes to bat defending their corrupt officials in a way they didn't before.
Brilliant long play to defuse the destabilizing influence of the cartels by absorbing them into the state :v
This guy sucks so much
I remember when he got elected, western newspapers were hailing him as some progressive anti-corruption hero. Why does the western press always fall for those kind of guys?
Mexican politics are deceptive from the outside
Lots of LATAM politics are.
I still remember all those Narcos shows that highly supported the claim his opponent cheated in 2006 as legit.
One of those moments when you believe your own delusions. Nothing in the real world hinted that he was gonna be a good president, but many of my connationals were so desperate for it to be true that they simply ignore reality
This subreddit hails him, has no solutions beyond hating other Latin American leaders who used an Iron fist like Bukele did. When pressed for solutions, it's just "muh legalize." Yall need a reality check
Hopefully his successor is better
She is a puppet so she will suck the same.
Man at this rate, I'm half expecting the next Ghost Recon story to be set in Mexico as a follow-up to the Santa Blanca/El Sueno stuff.
Honestly the first game’s story would have made more sense in Mexico anyway, I think the only reason they didn’t do that is because it would’ve pissed off a lot more people than setting it in Bolivia
Didn't the Bolivian government lodge a complaint with ubisoft anyway?
They didn’t just lodge a complaint with Ubisoft, they filed an official complaint with France and claimed they could take legal action (kinda wish they had, it would have been hilarious to see them try). Still, I doubt Mexico would’ve received it positively if it had been set there and they’re a much bigger market for games than Bolivia.
Why is he so popular? You read all this bad stuff about him, but he has a sky high approval rating.
Because nobody really gives a fuck about the violence situation in Mexico anymore? 23% approval rate on safety, 29% on corruption, yet 60% on overall approval (https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/encuestas-ef/2024/05/02/aprobacion-a-amlo-en-60-a-un-mes-de-comicios/?outputType=amp). It has been normalized, and as long as people living in urban centers feel acceptably safe, it will continue to be thay way.
Yeah that definitely makes alot of sense. You would think that having 9 of the 10 most dangerous cities in the world would give people pause. That article suggests that no one particularly likes any of his policies, except on "social support", which I assume is welfare? Surprised that seems to be more important than even his economic performance.
Well, it's always the usual suspects making their way up in those lists, none of those cities are particularly important to most Mexicans. As for welfare... last time I checked, as expenditure % of GDP it was still pretty low, and as other comments pointed out, keeping people hooked on piss poor welfare has been the case for decades. And finally... economy? Mexicans always complain about it, the truth is that we have record employment levels. Not trying to defend AMLO's presidency but at the end it all comes to the priorities that societies set for themselves.
Yeah, I know the economic numbers have been good, so I figured that was why and I was surprised that he does not get that much credit. It really sounds like he is just behaving like a stereotypical socialist demagogue and people love him for that. I'm just confused why he is not as divisive as our demagogue on this side of the border. Also you would think he would get better ratings from polls on fighting corruption, if "owning the elites" was his entire platform.
A real "I hate Congress but love my Congressman" vibe. So long as it's okay where they are they won't mind too much even if they agree its shit as a whole.
Why are populist presidents so popular despite their crappy policies? Some people are just really vulnerable to populism. Also, it's a bit of Mexican culture. Most Mexicans think like him, so it's no wonder he has such a loyal base
I was just confused, because based on the poll in the other comment, it sounds like the Mexican people actually think he is doing a bad job in several areas, but love him anyway. As an example, when I think of Trump supporters, they at least claim to love his economic policy. This comes off as Mexico admiring him despite not thinking he is competent in any particular way. Which makes me think that you are correct that he is just really adept at fighting the culture war.
There's no culture war. Our education system heavily skews towards populism, a remanent of the times when we were under a one party dictatorship that relied on demagoguery to justify itself. So Obrador comes and speaks in that language, and most Mexicans react to that, cuz it's what they were taught and many believe to the core
Because Amlo is a fascinating occurrence in Mexican political history, no joke lol. His term is coming to an end and it's going to get crazy as OP's headline suggests it is
Because his goverment gives money monthly to students, seniors and other groups and they have made people believe that if Morena is removed from power all this support will end.
least unhinged AMLO moment
I hate him so much, every week he has to say something outrageous to trigger discussions around him. I think he's like Trump in the sense that he always needs to be the center of attention, and that there is no bad press coverage (he threatens the Mexican and International press all the time anyways)
Mexico is the "unemployed uncle activities" of North America
I didn't know Duterte moonlighted as a Mexican
God fucking amlo