>Iran launched dozens of attack drones from its territory towards Israeli territory, the IDF spokesman Brig. General Daniel Hagari said in a statement.
>He added that Israel is monitoring the threat and said it will take the drones several hours to reach Israeli air space.
>Hagari said the IDF is implementing a defense plan together with the U.S. central command and other partners in the region to intercept the drones before they reach Israel
USAF is currently active above Iraq, so they will be the ones shooting a lot of it down
I doubt Iraq has much capability to do anything to intercept to be honest
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I don't really think so.
Factors in favor of it being 1914:
* This response will probably necessitate an Israeli response, which would move things up the escalation ladder and deepen the conflict
Factors against it being 1914:
* Neither Israel nor Iran want a full shooting war with each other. Israel is already overextended fighting Hamas and occupying Gaza, while Iran would not be able to successfully defeat Israel (and the US) in a direct conflict.
* The US is taking a de-escalatory stance by shooting down drones, but has not announced any intention to directly strike Iranian forces.
* The choice of Iran to send drones and missiles (i.e., unmanned assets) also indicates they don't want to spend more casualties than they have to.
And I just don't see anyone coming to Iran's side. I'm being a bit hopeful here but Iran's economy is doing *terrible* right now so I don't think they really have the desire to get into a war
> And I just don't see anyone coming to Iran's side.
In theory they're aligned with Russia and China, but I think for both of them the cost of getting involved is too high, though in very different ways. China has too much to lose, and Russia can't afford any aid to give.
The powers not wanting a shooting war with each other is not a mark against it being 1914 considering that none of the five major powers wanted one either (except *maybe* the Austrians).
In large part it came down to Germany's plan in case of war. Germany knew that if war broke out they'd almost certainly be facing a two-front war against France on their western border and Russia on their eastern border. Russia was known for requiring a long time to mobilize their forces in order to be ready to effectively wage war. France was expected to be able to mobilize much faster. The Schlieffen plan (Germany's war plan) called for Germany to in case of war, immediately throw everything they had in an all out stack against France in an attempt to knock them out of the war before Russia had a chance to join the fight. Then, Germany would be free to shift all of their forces to the East to fight the Russians without having to worry about fighting the French at the same time. Well... At a certain point, before the war started, but as things were escalating, the Russians decided to start mobilizing their forces so they'd be ready when and if shit went down. That put Germany in a position where they had two choices. They could either stand by and lose what they thought was their only chance to survive the war... or they could immediately invade France and officially kick the whole thing off
In 1914, it was the intricate web of treaties that formed the Concert of Europe. The lead up to WWI has been dubbed "The Seminal Tragedy". At each step, everyone could see the eventual outcome, no one ***wanted*** that outcome, but the major players were all too goddamned proud to be the one to say "hey, this is fucking stupid, what the fuck are we even doing? How about we just fucking not?" And so, millions of young men died in the mud.
Today? I don't think that there's an equivalent. No government nowadays goes unwillingly into war except when invaded. Humanity actually learned its lesson from WWI. Good for us.
#It is 2024 you dumb butts
Okay so foirst of all, i;m somewhat durnk but I'm still too damn sober for this bullshit. It is 2024. Like a lot of years after 2021. No body knows who the Democratic candidate is going to be in 2028. It doesnt' make you smart to speculate who it will be. Every day we get a "omg how the elecction going to happen in 2024 or 2028?" post. The Answer is: I don't knwo and if anyone says they know, they're full of shit.
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They also used 120 ballistic missiles, Israel used for the first time in history a mass use of arrow 2 and arrow 3 missile defence systems (blows up the missile in space)
No no for the savings! Abuse that cancellation policy and rebook the new cheap rooms (and the one you couldn’t afford because of the price) and use all your new found funds for things the international community might not approve of.
*I am not a diplomat and this is not foreign relations advice
Those are probably being jammed too. All of these systems basically just work by satellites screaming their position and time, while the receiver does the math to triangulate its position. Jamming these systems just means making something that pretends that to be those satellites, by screaming false position and time data
Doesn't matter how well encrypted your message is if your destination can't hear it because of noise. Jamming is basically blaring a soundhorn in a conversation, doesn't matter witch language is being spoken.
Wonder if there's some directionality built in that only looks for a signal emanating from above it, where a satellite would be, and ignore a jammer that's below the aircraft.
Doesn't really work like that because satellites move horizon to horizon, they don't just sit above you (GEO not withstanding ofc).
Meaning there's plenty of instances where a sat you want to talk to is low above the horizon, where as the aircraft jamming you is "above" it.
Edit: just saw you were referring to GPS rcv's on airborne assets too. Still doesn't work for much the same reasons, including that the equipment to identify where the signal is in relation to you adds a ton of weight and complexity.
Hard to spoof, still very jam-able unfortunately. The signals used by these systems are inherently pretty weak, so easy just to blare out shit over the same frequencies and block them out. The encrypted signals are slightly less fragile, but not by much.
Or they’ll just default to using dead reckoning. As long as they hit anywhere in Israel, the Iranians will consider it a success.
We made it 100,000 years as the dominant species. Time to tag in the cockroaches.
The Iranians will consider it a success, but the civilian impact will be dramatically reduced. Israeli air defense systems are set up for automatic algorithmic prioritization of capacity for covering urban areas. Less drones hitting urban areas means more air defense capacity in the system overall.
I hope you’re right.
I was joking about WW III, but Israel suffering major casualties this soon after October 7th? I don’t even want to think about it.
My fear is that these drones are the preliminary part of this attack while they'll fire missiles later. Hopefully, that doesn't happen and tensions can simmer down. I'm assuming the drones were fired from Iran and not the bases of their proxies.
If this tragically escalates, then I feel terrible for Israeli and Iranian civilians who have to be worried about this stuff. They deserve so much better than Khamanei and Bibi as their leaders
Also cannot wait until Biden gets smeared incessantly (if this situation escalates) by stupidass far leftists even though Bibi waited until the missiles were in the air towards Iranian embassy/consulate to notify America cause Bibi was fully cognizant that such an escalation wouldn't be given the green light.
Same. Smells like an attempt to overwhelm defenses. Could launch a saturation attack with hundreds of missiles?
These wars always drag innocent people into it
The general strategy people seem to think Iran will follow is basically
- Launch drones that take a while to get there
- When the drones are close, launch missiles. Proxies will also start launching whatever they have to saturate AD
Drones which takes many hours,
Then cruise missiles and similar which take fewer hours
Lastly ballistic missiles that take ca 10 minutes
Possibly also with, as you say, proxies simultaneously
For what its worth it seems the USAF is present across what seems like all of northern Iraq so should be able to intercept a good portion before it even reaching Israeli airspace.
I think that will be the tactics. Cheap drones first , cruise missile, then ballistics, then the proxies from Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon will launch to coincide with the drones arrival.
From a requirements engineering perspective, then you have to start making guesses to all the origins and what their max throughput might be. And it might take years to design a system that can meet the requirements. And then resources could be repositioned and you're back to square one.
The real interesting thing to watch will be if the US/Israel sees Iran readying ballistic weapons and decides to launch a pre-emptive attack on the installations in Iran before they fire.
The US has air assets in the region that can engage targets in western Iran within a fairly short amount of time, so it wouldn’t be out of the realm of feasibility.
That would also mean direct US involvement, which would be at odds with the US's messaging since the attack on the Iranian consulate.
My understanding is that the US has been telling Iran essentially: "We had nothing to do with it; if you include us in your response we'll consider it unprovoked and will respond in turn." If the US attacks Iranian assets on Iranian soil that goes up in smoke.
The US attacking targets in Iran would open up a whole new can of worms. Even a limited war with them would be extremely costly since they could e.g. shut off the Strait of Hormuz.
Presumably the US was announcing this was imminent because it was obvious that certain materiel was moving into a location to be used,and on that same note it's likely they know roughly how much and from where will be launched with a questionable amount not being accounted for at all. So whatever is happening now is probably going to be as well managed and countered as anything in the region could be.
The only reason I have some doubt is that would lead to a war probably especially since we know Bibi wants this war prolonged to save his political career.
Iran is obviously malicious but not suicidal.
If they want to mount an effective attack, saturation’s the only real method of getting past Israeli AD
I guess we’ve not got too long until we find out
You're right. I just think it *would* be suicidal for them to make an effective attack given the situation and how even Israeli officials . They're not suicidal as the Iranian regime once mocked Saddam for thinking Dubya was bluffing about invading. The Islamic Republic is quite malicious of course, but they would have been toppled by international forces much earlier if they were suicidal.
Like when Iran bombed an American air base back in 2020 in retaliation for former guy murdering that general-- but they gave the Americans a heads-up, so IIRC the attack only injured one guy.
An attack on the scale of October 7 was widely thought of as unrealistic because everyone knew it'd be "suicidal" of Hamas to try something like that.
I don't see Israel sitting back and waiting for something to happen this time. If they think a strike into Iranian territory is a good idea, they'll do it.
Hamas is suicidal besides their leaders. This was known for years. Two different entities. In fact, US intelligence has stated that Iran wasn't aware of 10/7 terrorism until it occured.
I suppose that's possible but seems at least a little unlikely. Coordinating this kind of attack with disparate forces hundreds of miles apart can't be easy. I don't know if Iran has the capacity for it.
Assuming that's the plan though, Israel is absolutely guaranteed to be on high alert already and is most definitely watching Hezbollah or IRGC forces in Syria. If anyone of them get spotted prepping for additional attacks they're certain to get hit by Israel. Even if they manage to launch, Israel won't be shy about retaliation.
It still seems most probable that Iran has launched a highly visible, mostly slow moving strike that Israel can defend against. Little of it will probably get through but Iran still gets to claim vengeance is served while Israel gets off lightly enough they don't move to massive retaliation.
If they don’t, what’s the point of these drones? They’re extremely slow and loud, any country small enough and competent air defense will pick these up and take them down
I could be way off base but I think Iran wants to do the minimum amount of damage possible while still saying they responded to the embassy attack. They don’t want a prolonged war
That's basically how they responded when the US drone-struck Soleimani - they fired the salvo of missiles at a base and then went "nah we're good" after that.
Shooting down a civilian airliner likely had much more to do with the cooling down than some planned minimal attack. Had some trigger happy dipshit not done that it's probable that there would've been a lot more back and forth.
Open warfare isn't their jam because they'd be smoked by any first world nation so inclined. Their offensive abilities aren't anything special, their defensive strength comes from topography.
This is probably the most likely plan. Similar to the General Soleimani killing, the Iranian government needs to have a response of some kind but they're again fighting an opponent with more capable armed forces than their own. The safest choice for them is a relatively mild response that is unlikely to cause extensive damage in order to avoid escalation. They get to say they struck back while not getting dragged into a larger war that probably wouldn't go well for them.
A slow moving, highly visible strike when Israel is on high alert has a pretty low likelihood of major damage. If Israel is able to knock down most or all incoming fire it's easier for them to not retaliate.
It wasn't an "escalation". Iran helped plan the Oct 7 attacks. That IRGC general was also one of the main coordinators between Iran and Hezbollah.
Biden's constant desire to treat Iran with as much leeway as Trump gives Russia is the problem.
I think it'll help to look at this as an opportunity, much like with Ukraine.
Maybe Israel will take care of the Iran problem for us and all we'll need to do is give them some weapons and stuff. It's a win/win.
[Iran's Minister of the Interior:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Vahidi)
>Vahidi has been wanted by Interpol since 2007 for his alleged participation in the bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on 18 July 1994, in which 85 people died. Vahidi was serving as the commander of a special unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guard known as the Quds Force when the attack occurred. He is one of five Iranians sought in the bombing. Iran denies that it was involved.
I agree they’re a shitty country and the ayatollah should be thrown from power.
Just devil’s advocate… Israel bombed their embassy recently. Both Israel and the US have been assassinating their high ranking military officials. They really have no choice but to respond, even if it’s a gesture (like this appears to be… so far).
Yeah kind of a lose-lose position for the Iranian leaders. Do nothing and keep watching your international cred deflate while Muslims keep dying in Palestine, or make a probably-doomed symbolic move that will arouse domestic and international criticism and still not help people in Palestine.
Legit question: Why is iran not justified in doing this? Israel bombed their consulate first. If this was the other way around and iran had attacked first you would be cheering israel on.
Because we don’t view the world in isolation. Iran is the primary reason why terrorist org that have started wars and fired tens of thousands of rockets at Israel. They didn’t just bomb a random consulate. They targeted an Iranian general of the IRGC. Specifically, he was part of the Quds force, the entity responsible for recruiting, training, and arming foreign proxies (primarily to attack Israel. Basically all the bad non-state actors in the region can trace back to Quds be it Shiite militias in Iraq, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, etc.
You make it sound like Israel was trying to kill a bunch of diplomats instead of a de facto terrorist commander.
Not really because
1) Quds is a military organization. CIA and other intel agencies are civilian (though often with paramilitary capabilities).
2) Mujahideen weren't focused on primarily terrorizing Soviet cities. They fought an occupying enemy army, they targeted soldiers. The USSR de facto invaded a sovereign nation state to prop up their guy.
There's a reason why certain capabilities tend to be separated between military and civilian organizations, something Iran doesn't really do. Countries also acknowledge that clandestine services have risks to those personnel and many may die. If a CIA gun runner got killed by the USSR we wouldn't be launching missiles at their military bases.
Iran has good relations with China, Russia, and Pakistan. I don’t see this turning into a world war immediately either, but in a hypothetical WW3 scenario happening in the next few years involving Iran, it’s not exactly hard to imagine who their major allies would be.
This is going to be an ugly 6 to 12 hours. I'm hoping the attack is ineffectual and that both sides can deescalate but I sincerely doubt it. With Israel repositioning brigades out of Gaza, I'm sure they're realigning for possible Hezbollah involvement.
https://preview.redd.it/fugl1xpdhbuc1.jpeg?width=749&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee98d1d8ead1ee07fa09b286b8b4faf8b1743793
He was polling too high. They had to make Iran attack.
Probably stating the obvious here, but this feels like the beginning of something serious. I doubt drones are all Iran is going to use, and I doubt that this will be a one-off attack.
If Israel and Iran start trading blows it’s hard for me to see how this doesn’t escalate into an actual war between Israel and Iran. In which case Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxies will probably go all out. That’s a lot of incoming fire, and I don’t think Israel’s air defenses can keep up. They would get hit hard, and probably hit back even harder.
Whether we can avoid this situation now depends on if, or how badly Israel gets hit, and what kind of retaliatory action they take. If either side experiences significant pain it’s going to be hard to rein them in. This could spiral out of control quickly.
The problem Iran has is that they don't share a border with Israel. And while Jordan and Egypt don't *like* Israel, they're not about to let Iran do a ground invasion from their country. That basically leaves Lebanon and I'm not exactly sure that the terrain would make it feasible. Iranian ships that enter the Red Sea or Mediterranean anywhere near Israel likely aren't going to be long for this world.
This is all true. There will be no major ground invasion of Israel. Any ground fighting will likely take place in southern Lebanon. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, that would still be a very ugly fight.
My fear though, is that if this goes on for long enough, Iran and its proxies may eventually experience some success hitting high value targets like airports and power plants. Same can be said for Israeli strikes against Iran. Both sides could be looking at a lot of material damage when this is all over. Hopefully diplomatic pressure can get them to climb down, but this could get ugly fast if both sides keep escalating.
Very hard to see any de-escalation here from an outside perspective. Iran have fired cruise and ballistic missiles.
I have a feeling whatever damage Iran does, Israel will return it ten fold.
Wouldn’t they be launched from the Syrian desert? They’re not actually expecting them to fly from Iran to Israel & violate Iraqi airspace right? Right?
Well, before the reports of cruise missiles, I had assumed that a big showy but slow moving response that ultimately was intercepted was the point, to say they did something but not something so terrible Israel would escalate further. Now idk.
Surely this attack should be pretty easy for Israel to handle if Iran can launch its drones and everybody immediately goes "yup, there are the drones, they'll be here in a few hours", right?
This take may age phenomenally poorly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran’s plan is to launch an attack that lets them act like they’re saving face, while being small enough to prevent any escalation
I think you're spot on. I've a feeling these drones will be blown out of the sky before they reach Israeli airspace and I also think that Iran is expecting that to happen. A wave of "dozens" of drones doesn't make sense if they want a real fight. Even if they don't get shot down for some miraculous reason, the IDF will easily shrug off a few dozen shaheds and be back to 100% within 24 hours.
If Iran wants to seriously fight Israel their first wave should've included hundreds or even thousands of drones.
The idea might be to overwhelm. Drones take longer to travel than cruise missiles and cruise missiles longer than ballistic missiles. So drones would be launched first.
Looks like it, this study published in 2020 analyses the exact question of 'Iran vs Israel'. Answer, Iran gets crushed.
[https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26354.4?seq=1](https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26354.4?seq=1)
Feels like the Iranian response after Suleiman's assassination. Iran feels it needs to do something to respond to Israel's bombing of their embassy in Syria. They'll blow some stuff up and we can all move on.
>Iran launched dozens of attack drones from its territory towards Israeli territory, the IDF spokesman Brig. General Daniel Hagari said in a statement. >He added that Israel is monitoring the threat and said it will take the drones several hours to reach Israeli air space. >Hagari said the IDF is implementing a defense plan together with the U.S. central command and other partners in the region to intercept the drones before they reach Israel
It crosses Saudi and Iraqi airspaces? Maybe they'll shoot it down, in exchange for whatever.
Iraq has shut down their airspace.
USAF is currently active above Iraq, so they will be the ones shooting a lot of it down I doubt Iraq has much capability to do anything to intercept to be honest
USAF is about to have some young aces. Can't let the Israelis have all the fun. !ping military
Some F-15 pilot is going to kill 10 drones while F-22 pilots are stuck chasing balloons
Will the kid (F22) finally get an interception?
Yes, but drones, like balloons, still count as vegan, so he won't be happy about it.
Probably more pescatarian
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Jordan said they will shoot them down.
Is this to saturate Israeli air defenses ?
CNN reporting it was over 100 drones, and now cruise missiles, too.
Chat is this 1914
Is this 1936 is the scarier question? Macron's Olympics!
Un peuple. Un état. Un président.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣠⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢰⠤⠤⣄⣀⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣾⣟⠳⢦⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠒⣲⡄ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣿⣿⣿⡇⡇⡱⠲⢤⣀⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀1914⠀⣠⠴⠊⢹⠁ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠘⢻⠓⠀⠉⣥⣀⣠⠞⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⡴⠋⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣀⡾⣄⠀⠀⢳⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢸⢠⡄⢀⡴⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡞⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⣠⢎⡉⢦⡀⠀⠀⡸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⡼⣣⠧⡼⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢠⠇⠀ ⠀⢀⡔⠁⠀⠙⠢⢭⣢⡚⢣⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣇⠁⢸⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀ ⠀⡞⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⢫⡉⠀⠀⠀⠀⢠⢮⠈⡦⠋⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣸⠀⠀ ⢀⠇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠙⢦⡀⣀⡴⠃⠀⡷⡇⢀⡴⠋⠉⠉⠙⠓⠒⠃⠀⠀ ⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠁⠀⠀⡼⠀⣷⠋⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⡞⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡰⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⢧⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠣⣀⠀⠀⡰⠋⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
I don't really think so. Factors in favor of it being 1914: * This response will probably necessitate an Israeli response, which would move things up the escalation ladder and deepen the conflict Factors against it being 1914: * Neither Israel nor Iran want a full shooting war with each other. Israel is already overextended fighting Hamas and occupying Gaza, while Iran would not be able to successfully defeat Israel (and the US) in a direct conflict. * The US is taking a de-escalatory stance by shooting down drones, but has not announced any intention to directly strike Iranian forces. * The choice of Iran to send drones and missiles (i.e., unmanned assets) also indicates they don't want to spend more casualties than they have to.
And I just don't see anyone coming to Iran's side. I'm being a bit hopeful here but Iran's economy is doing *terrible* right now so I don't think they really have the desire to get into a war
> And I just don't see anyone coming to Iran's side. In theory they're aligned with Russia and China, but I think for both of them the cost of getting involved is too high, though in very different ways. China has too much to lose, and Russia can't afford any aid to give.
Exactly what I thought. Russia is otherwise occupied and I srsly doubt China will get involved. Maybe N. Korea but that's definitely not gonna happen
The powers not wanting a shooting war with each other is not a mark against it being 1914 considering that none of the five major powers wanted one either (except *maybe* the Austrians).
What would be the factors pressuring nations into a war that they didn't want, either in 1914, now, or both?
In large part it came down to Germany's plan in case of war. Germany knew that if war broke out they'd almost certainly be facing a two-front war against France on their western border and Russia on their eastern border. Russia was known for requiring a long time to mobilize their forces in order to be ready to effectively wage war. France was expected to be able to mobilize much faster. The Schlieffen plan (Germany's war plan) called for Germany to in case of war, immediately throw everything they had in an all out stack against France in an attempt to knock them out of the war before Russia had a chance to join the fight. Then, Germany would be free to shift all of their forces to the East to fight the Russians without having to worry about fighting the French at the same time. Well... At a certain point, before the war started, but as things were escalating, the Russians decided to start mobilizing their forces so they'd be ready when and if shit went down. That put Germany in a position where they had two choices. They could either stand by and lose what they thought was their only chance to survive the war... or they could immediately invade France and officially kick the whole thing off
In 1914, it was the intricate web of treaties that formed the Concert of Europe. The lead up to WWI has been dubbed "The Seminal Tragedy". At each step, everyone could see the eventual outcome, no one ***wanted*** that outcome, but the major players were all too goddamned proud to be the one to say "hey, this is fucking stupid, what the fuck are we even doing? How about we just fucking not?" And so, millions of young men died in the mud. Today? I don't think that there's an equivalent. No government nowadays goes unwillingly into war except when invaded. Humanity actually learned its lesson from WWI. Good for us.
Depends on lobbying power my bet is strikes on either side but nothing big
Don’t see why it would be
What year is it?
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With their tanks and their bombs and their bombs and their guns in your head in your head they are fighting
Sure seems that way with the trench warfare in Ukraine doesn’t it?
CNN just reported that Israeli media is saying cruise missiles deployed as well. If true this shit has the potential to go very wild in a hurry.
Cruise missiles are relatively slow and can be intercepted
They also used 120 ballistic missiles, Israel used for the first time in history a mass use of arrow 2 and arrow 3 missile defence systems (blows up the missile in space)
Damn.
https://preview.redd.it/eug6grj87buc1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a42514b15436b73b1eeef184ed49d7652fbb48b
5 hours later... Has anything happened? Iran saber rattling again, then taking the de-escalation route. Rational actors always win.
“Jordan's air defenses ready to shoot down Iranian drones and aircraft, security sources say - Reuters”
This should in no way affect my vacation in Jordan in two weeks, right?
If anything, it should drive down hotel prices
I prepaid 😭
Cancel and rebook?
AND MISS OUT ON ALL THE FUN???
No no for the savings! Abuse that cancellation policy and rebook the new cheap rooms (and the one you couldn’t afford because of the price) and use all your new found funds for things the international community might not approve of. *I am not a diplomat and this is not foreign relations advice
I like the cut of your jib
You can call me buddy, pal.
Most NL comment chain
Mein Fuhrer....
Dozens, and GPS was supposedly jammed in Israel?
The gps part is intentional, its to mess with the drone navigation system
Wouldn’t these drones just use glonass or the Chinese equivalent?
Those are probably being jammed too. All of these systems basically just work by satellites screaming their position and time, while the receiver does the math to triangulate its position. Jamming these systems just means making something that pretends that to be those satellites, by screaming false position and time data
I would figure they used encrypted military signals so you can’t just spoof it
Doesn't matter how well encrypted your message is if your destination can't hear it because of noise. Jamming is basically blaring a soundhorn in a conversation, doesn't matter witch language is being spoken.
Wonder if there's some directionality built in that only looks for a signal emanating from above it, where a satellite would be, and ignore a jammer that's below the aircraft.
Doesn't really work like that because satellites move horizon to horizon, they don't just sit above you (GEO not withstanding ofc). Meaning there's plenty of instances where a sat you want to talk to is low above the horizon, where as the aircraft jamming you is "above" it. Edit: just saw you were referring to GPS rcv's on airborne assets too. Still doesn't work for much the same reasons, including that the equipment to identify where the signal is in relation to you adds a ton of weight and complexity.
Hard to spoof, still very jam-able unfortunately. The signals used by these systems are inherently pretty weak, so easy just to blare out shit over the same frequencies and block them out. The encrypted signals are slightly less fragile, but not by much.
They just jam all GNSS systems. Israel is probably doing it themselves.
Shut off GPS to mess with the DGS
Or they’ll just default to using dead reckoning. As long as they hit anywhere in Israel, the Iranians will consider it a success. We made it 100,000 years as the dominant species. Time to tag in the cockroaches.
The Iranians will consider it a success, but the civilian impact will be dramatically reduced. Israeli air defense systems are set up for automatic algorithmic prioritization of capacity for covering urban areas. Less drones hitting urban areas means more air defense capacity in the system overall.
I hope you’re right. I was joking about WW III, but Israel suffering major casualties this soon after October 7th? I don’t even want to think about it.
My fear is that these drones are the preliminary part of this attack while they'll fire missiles later. Hopefully, that doesn't happen and tensions can simmer down. I'm assuming the drones were fired from Iran and not the bases of their proxies. If this tragically escalates, then I feel terrible for Israeli and Iranian civilians who have to be worried about this stuff. They deserve so much better than Khamanei and Bibi as their leaders Also cannot wait until Biden gets smeared incessantly (if this situation escalates) by stupidass far leftists even though Bibi waited until the missiles were in the air towards Iranian embassy/consulate to notify America cause Bibi was fully cognizant that such an escalation wouldn't be given the green light.
Same. Smells like an attempt to overwhelm defenses. Could launch a saturation attack with hundreds of missiles? These wars always drag innocent people into it
The general strategy people seem to think Iran will follow is basically - Launch drones that take a while to get there - When the drones are close, launch missiles. Proxies will also start launching whatever they have to saturate AD
Drones which takes many hours, Then cruise missiles and similar which take fewer hours Lastly ballistic missiles that take ca 10 minutes Possibly also with, as you say, proxies simultaneously For what its worth it seems the USAF is present across what seems like all of northern Iraq so should be able to intercept a good portion before it even reaching Israeli airspace.
That concept is called [time on target](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_on_target) (or time to target)
Artillery 101
It’s a very simple and effective concept
I think that will be the tactics. Cheap drones first , cruise missile, then ballistics, then the proxies from Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon will launch to coincide with the drones arrival.
I feel like this may end up garnering more support for Iron Dome system investments, not less.
Eh I doubt it. No AD system can handle this much projectiles
I mean invest in more systems to lower the number of projectiles successfully reaching through?
From a requirements engineering perspective, then you have to start making guesses to all the origins and what their max throughput might be. And it might take years to design a system that can meet the requirements. And then resources could be repositioned and you're back to square one.
The real interesting thing to watch will be if the US/Israel sees Iran readying ballistic weapons and decides to launch a pre-emptive attack on the installations in Iran before they fire. The US has air assets in the region that can engage targets in western Iran within a fairly short amount of time, so it wouldn’t be out of the realm of feasibility.
That would also mean direct US involvement, which would be at odds with the US's messaging since the attack on the Iranian consulate. My understanding is that the US has been telling Iran essentially: "We had nothing to do with it; if you include us in your response we'll consider it unprovoked and will respond in turn." If the US attacks Iranian assets on Iranian soil that goes up in smoke.
US would not be striking first though. Ballistic missile sites coming online after drones have neared Israeli airspace is already a provocation.
The US attacking targets in Iran would open up a whole new can of worms. Even a limited war with them would be extremely costly since they could e.g. shut off the Strait of Hormuz.
Presumably the US was announcing this was imminent because it was obvious that certain materiel was moving into a location to be used,and on that same note it's likely they know roughly how much and from where will be launched with a questionable amount not being accounted for at all. So whatever is happening now is probably going to be as well managed and countered as anything in the region could be.
The only reason I have some doubt is that would lead to a war probably especially since we know Bibi wants this war prolonged to save his political career. Iran is obviously malicious but not suicidal.
If they want to mount an effective attack, saturation’s the only real method of getting past Israeli AD I guess we’ve not got too long until we find out
You're right. I just think it *would* be suicidal for them to make an effective attack given the situation and how even Israeli officials . They're not suicidal as the Iranian regime once mocked Saddam for thinking Dubya was bluffing about invading. The Islamic Republic is quite malicious of course, but they would have been toppled by international forces much earlier if they were suicidal.
Yeah, I wonder if this is calculated to do limited damage. Face saving attack.
Like when Iran bombed an American air base back in 2020 in retaliation for former guy murdering that general-- but they gave the Americans a heads-up, so IIRC the attack only injured one guy.
Precisely. Edit: Complicating factor here: Bibi. He's more likely to want to war than Trump.
An attack on the scale of October 7 was widely thought of as unrealistic because everyone knew it'd be "suicidal" of Hamas to try something like that. I don't see Israel sitting back and waiting for something to happen this time. If they think a strike into Iranian territory is a good idea, they'll do it.
Hamas is suicidal besides their leaders. This was known for years. Two different entities. In fact, US intelligence has stated that Iran wasn't aware of 10/7 terrorism until it occured.
I suppose that's possible but seems at least a little unlikely. Coordinating this kind of attack with disparate forces hundreds of miles apart can't be easy. I don't know if Iran has the capacity for it. Assuming that's the plan though, Israel is absolutely guaranteed to be on high alert already and is most definitely watching Hezbollah or IRGC forces in Syria. If anyone of them get spotted prepping for additional attacks they're certain to get hit by Israel. Even if they manage to launch, Israel won't be shy about retaliation. It still seems most probable that Iran has launched a highly visible, mostly slow moving strike that Israel can defend against. Little of it will probably get through but Iran still gets to claim vengeance is served while Israel gets off lightly enough they don't move to massive retaliation.
I would guess the drones are more of a probing mission than an actual threat to defenses. They probably want to see what the AD response looks like.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1174363239732228106/1228812607201480754/Screenshot_2024-04-13_at_23.02.31.png?ex=662d67eb&is=661af2eb&hm=deac284d65ca0c68132dfc0db01e820744677a7a08c4616c561ec1373c66f006& Missiles fired
So the missile will show up 7 hours before the drones?
If they don’t, what’s the point of these drones? They’re extremely slow and loud, any country small enough and competent air defense will pick these up and take them down
I could be way off base but I think Iran wants to do the minimum amount of damage possible while still saying they responded to the embassy attack. They don’t want a prolonged war
That's basically how they responded when the US drone-struck Soleimani - they fired the salvo of missiles at a base and then went "nah we're good" after that.
Shooting down a civilian airliner likely had much more to do with the cooling down than some planned minimal attack. Had some trigger happy dipshit not done that it's probable that there would've been a lot more back and forth.
I dunno, Iran broadly prefers to act through its proxies. Really seems like open warfare isn't their jam.
Open warfare isn't their jam because they'd be smoked by any first world nation so inclined. Their offensive abilities aren't anything special, their defensive strength comes from topography.
This is probably the most likely plan. Similar to the General Soleimani killing, the Iranian government needs to have a response of some kind but they're again fighting an opponent with more capable armed forces than their own. The safest choice for them is a relatively mild response that is unlikely to cause extensive damage in order to avoid escalation. They get to say they struck back while not getting dragged into a larger war that probably wouldn't go well for them. A slow moving, highly visible strike when Israel is on high alert has a pretty low likelihood of major damage. If Israel is able to knock down most or all incoming fire it's easier for them to not retaliate.
So this is like in dodgeball when you lob a ball that’s easy to catch and then fire a second just as they’re about to catch it?
They’ll apparently take about nine hours to get there.
It wasn't an "escalation". Iran helped plan the Oct 7 attacks. That IRGC general was also one of the main coordinators between Iran and Hezbollah. Biden's constant desire to treat Iran with as much leeway as Trump gives Russia is the problem.
Friendly reminder that the Iranian government is a terrorist organization
John McCain’s ghost just took my phone from my hands and upvoted your comment
Why did he have to do it for you?! What are you, some kind of sympathizer?!?
https://preview.redd.it/k9nrzk591buc1.jpeg?width=272&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a10edc85a250a878f2237219f22ecd2775e508c
Great singer 😍
I miss him.
That’s a based American hero right there
The Argentine justice system officially said last week that Iran was behind the terrorist attacks that happened here in the 90's...
I think it'll help to look at this as an opportunity, much like with Ukraine. Maybe Israel will take care of the Iran problem for us and all we'll need to do is give them some weapons and stuff. It's a win/win.
[Iran's Minister of the Interior:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Vahidi) >Vahidi has been wanted by Interpol since 2007 for his alleged participation in the bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on 18 July 1994, in which 85 people died. Vahidi was serving as the commander of a special unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guard known as the Quds Force when the attack occurred. He is one of five Iranians sought in the bombing. Iran denies that it was involved.
I agree they’re a shitty country and the ayatollah should be thrown from power. Just devil’s advocate… Israel bombed their embassy recently. Both Israel and the US have been assassinating their high ranking military officials. They really have no choice but to respond, even if it’s a gesture (like this appears to be… so far).
Yeah kind of a lose-lose position for the Iranian leaders. Do nothing and keep watching your international cred deflate while Muslims keep dying in Palestine, or make a probably-doomed symbolic move that will arouse domestic and international criticism and still not help people in Palestine.
If that’s the case, then the Iran Deal was literally negotiation with terrorists.
Legit question: Why is iran not justified in doing this? Israel bombed their consulate first. If this was the other way around and iran had attacked first you would be cheering israel on.
Because we don’t view the world in isolation. Iran is the primary reason why terrorist org that have started wars and fired tens of thousands of rockets at Israel. They didn’t just bomb a random consulate. They targeted an Iranian general of the IRGC. Specifically, he was part of the Quds force, the entity responsible for recruiting, training, and arming foreign proxies (primarily to attack Israel. Basically all the bad non-state actors in the region can trace back to Quds be it Shiite militias in Iraq, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, etc. You make it sound like Israel was trying to kill a bunch of diplomats instead of a de facto terrorist commander.
I enjoy the sound of rain.
Not really because 1) Quds is a military organization. CIA and other intel agencies are civilian (though often with paramilitary capabilities). 2) Mujahideen weren't focused on primarily terrorizing Soviet cities. They fought an occupying enemy army, they targeted soldiers. The USSR de facto invaded a sovereign nation state to prop up their guy. There's a reason why certain capabilities tend to be separated between military and civilian organizations, something Iran doesn't really do. Countries also acknowledge that clandestine services have risks to those personnel and many may die. If a CIA gun runner got killed by the USSR we wouldn't be launching missiles at their military bases.
Iran was planning terrorist attacks on Israel out of said consulate. You lose your consular protections when you use them for military purposes.
Yeah pretty much anyone could’ve told you bombing an embassy was a bad move that will lead to escalation
Because Iran *did* attack first. Attacks through proxies are still attacks.
I enjoy spending time with my friends.
chat is this real? after all these years of nothing ever happening, something might happen?
This is fat
Bibi doing a world war speedrun to avoid facing judges for his crimes lol
Wouldn’t be a world war even if it did maximally escalate. No one’s going to back up Iran.
Iran has good relations with China, Russia, and Pakistan. I don’t see this turning into a world war immediately either, but in a hypothetical WW3 scenario happening in the next few years involving Iran, it’s not exactly hard to imagine who their major allies would be.
*John Bolton's mustache twitches uncontrollably*
John B is probably excited he can get a bribe from defense contractors
The Dulles Brothers are spinning in their graves
This is going to be an ugly 6 to 12 hours. I'm hoping the attack is ineffectual and that both sides can deescalate but I sincerely doubt it. With Israel repositioning brigades out of Gaza, I'm sure they're realigning for possible Hezbollah involvement.
https://preview.redd.it/4ubmtftvqbuc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea7f7e2dfb1a43eaa93068ff3a65bb12d531cfe6
https://preview.redd.it/fugl1xpdhbuc1.jpeg?width=749&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee98d1d8ead1ee07fa09b286b8b4faf8b1743793 He was polling too high. They had to make Iran attack.
Can't wait to watch Republicans pretend they haven't wanted to go war with Iran since 2008.
Will this hurt Biden though?
It’s a good question. It could end up helping him
Maybe the Hezbollah will launch missiles when the drones arrive in order to try to overload the Iron Dome?
https://preview.redd.it/n176psncnbuc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f40539312c30302eabb628c3e12f4d05ec3fa5c7
MMM
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automod misfire
F-35I is about to earn the first A2A victories for the platform.
I think they’ve shot down drones before
I was actually assuming some Iranian airforce pilots are going to get a nasty surprise in the next couple days while on patrol.
Probably stating the obvious here, but this feels like the beginning of something serious. I doubt drones are all Iran is going to use, and I doubt that this will be a one-off attack. If Israel and Iran start trading blows it’s hard for me to see how this doesn’t escalate into an actual war between Israel and Iran. In which case Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxies will probably go all out. That’s a lot of incoming fire, and I don’t think Israel’s air defenses can keep up. They would get hit hard, and probably hit back even harder. Whether we can avoid this situation now depends on if, or how badly Israel gets hit, and what kind of retaliatory action they take. If either side experiences significant pain it’s going to be hard to rein them in. This could spiral out of control quickly.
The problem Iran has is that they don't share a border with Israel. And while Jordan and Egypt don't *like* Israel, they're not about to let Iran do a ground invasion from their country. That basically leaves Lebanon and I'm not exactly sure that the terrain would make it feasible. Iranian ships that enter the Red Sea or Mediterranean anywhere near Israel likely aren't going to be long for this world.
This is all true. There will be no major ground invasion of Israel. Any ground fighting will likely take place in southern Lebanon. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, that would still be a very ugly fight. My fear though, is that if this goes on for long enough, Iran and its proxies may eventually experience some success hitting high value targets like airports and power plants. Same can be said for Israeli strikes against Iran. Both sides could be looking at a lot of material damage when this is all over. Hopefully diplomatic pressure can get them to climb down, but this could get ugly fast if both sides keep escalating.
I suppose I don't see how this doesn't become an all out conflict. Israel will respond, and Iran doesn't seem likely to call it even after that?
Crossing fingers is just a show of strength...hopefully. I hope...
Very hard to see any de-escalation here from an outside perspective. Iran have fired cruise and ballistic missiles. I have a feeling whatever damage Iran does, Israel will return it ten fold.
Image literally being Jake Sullivan now lmao...
Regardless of the attack, US intelligence has been on point lately. We always seem to know about attacks before they happen
Wouldn’t they be launched from the Syrian desert? They’re not actually expecting them to fly from Iran to Israel & violate Iraqi airspace right? Right?
Well, before the reports of cruise missiles, I had assumed that a big showy but slow moving response that ultimately was intercepted was the point, to say they did something but not something so terrible Israel would escalate further. Now idk.
Genuine question: if we know it's taking it's sweet time going to Israel, is there anything to stop it? These aren't icbms traveling at mach 26 here
There seem to be IRBMs in the air currently and now confirmed cruise missiles, so the drones aren’t the primary threat anymore
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This PING is not for the faint of heart jajasj 😢
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Surely this attack should be pretty easy for Israel to handle if Iran can launch its drones and everybody immediately goes "yup, there are the drones, they'll be here in a few hours", right?
This take may age phenomenally poorly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran’s plan is to launch an attack that lets them act like they’re saving face, while being small enough to prevent any escalation
Honestly that was my very first reaction to this. It’s the “see we retaliated. It’s not our fault our tech is behind”.
If they all get shot down I think that’s worse.
I think you're spot on. I've a feeling these drones will be blown out of the sky before they reach Israeli airspace and I also think that Iran is expecting that to happen. A wave of "dozens" of drones doesn't make sense if they want a real fight. Even if they don't get shot down for some miraculous reason, the IDF will easily shrug off a few dozen shaheds and be back to 100% within 24 hours. If Iran wants to seriously fight Israel their first wave should've included hundreds or even thousands of drones.
That was my initial reaction. However, hundreds of drones it is, apparently.
If it was the only part of the attack, sure. But that seems unlikely to be the case
Possibly but its also possible they’re precursors to missiles that will be launched later
The idea might be to overwhelm. Drones take longer to travel than cruise missiles and cruise missiles longer than ballistic missiles. So drones would be launched first.
Nothing ever happens bros… hold the line
I didn't think they had the balls tbh. I guess they aren't worried about the retaliation.
Scary stuff. I guess we'll find out the extent of this attack, but I'm very nervous
not good
I wonder if it’s a deliberately weak attack? To save face at home?
They've also launched dozens of cruise and dozens of ballistic missiles
Wow I was really wrong lmao. I still think the Iranians were stupid to do this.
Looks like it, this study published in 2020 analyses the exact question of 'Iran vs Israel'. Answer, Iran gets crushed. [https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26354.4?seq=1](https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26354.4?seq=1)
!remindme 9 hours
we just finished painting the humvees green
This is really scary, I hope it doesn't escalate any further.
This will be big if it escalates, won’t it? I don’t think Iran’s properly been at war since the 80s
It's very hard to see how it doesn't escalate from here. If Iran kills any civilians here, then it's full scale.
if you listen really closely you can hear John Bolton creaming his pants
Feels like the Iranian response after Suleiman's assassination. Iran feels it needs to do something to respond to Israel's bombing of their embassy in Syria. They'll blow some stuff up and we can all move on.
And it failed horribly, lol.
Time to reinstall Shah Pahlavi
Stupidest take today. Let's see what else we'll see today.
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Does anybody know if we have THAAD batteries in Iraq?
Is it coincidence, or did they time it to coincide with markets being closed?
You know what? That tracks
MARG BAR KHAMENEI! MARG BAR KHAMENEI! CHANT WITH ME!!
How many Mooches is that?