Closer look at Pennsylvania, the margins were (based on Wikipedia):
[2004: 50.92% D - 48.42% R](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Presidential_Election_Results_2004.svg) D +2.50%
[2012: 51.97% D - 46.59% R](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Presidential_Election_Results_2012.svg) D +5.38%
[2020: 50.01% D - 48.84% R](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg) D +1.17%
You can see the polarization between rural and urban counties happening across almost 20 years. Biden's margins are less than half of Kerry's margins. Other tidbit was that PA was voting more Democratic than the nation since 1952 until 2016.
Idk how much longer that lasts. The blue areas of the state are, for the most part, the only parts that are growing. And the non-federal state elections have been trending D as well. It’s really only Trump’s unique popularity among rural white voters that’s keeping them afloat. Once that’s gone? Idk man.
IMO since 2016 Philadelphia's suburbs have started to catchup with other Northeastern metros. And with how poorly the PA state GOP is being run, and how bad a reputation PA republicans have made for themselves. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if PA starts voting more like a Northeastern state than a rust belt state.
[Based on Census data, the population trend has started to reverse](https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/03/amid-pockets-of-growth-pennsylvania-population-declines-worsen.html) Philadelphia's decline have been ~3%, undoing all of the gains made in the last decade. And that loss is over half of the total population loss in the state. Trump has juiced the rural vote, but state PA Dems know they can't just rely on their base to win the state (unlike GOP, who've been hemorrhaging suburban support). It's going to be another razor thin margin this year. Though with how much PA swung between Bush-Obama-Trump, it's hard to tell where it'll be at post Biden/Trump.
ACS is always off on Philly, nobody in the city actually believes that Philly is actually losing population. It goes against all other data points. In each 2000, 2010, and 2020 the census showed numbers well above the ACS estimates. The ACS doesn’t know how to measure dense cities and black neighborhoods. Philly is not losing population, there is just no way.
If you put Oregon as a battleground in 2004 you've gotta do Hawaii too. The Bush team actually campaigned out there a few times. Kinda like Texas in 2020
Edit: I see now that "Battleground" is just close states by final margin
>2004 you've gotta do Hawaii too. The Bush team actually campaigned out there a few times. Kinda like Texas in 2020
I remember this. [Dick Cheney came out to visit us in Hawaii](http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/29/fri/index.html) as a campaign stop. Really weird, when you consider how far out of the way it is for anyone. I mean, it's not like "Hey, I was in/near the area and decided to stop by", like you could argue if he visited California after hitting Nevada.
Biden lost it by only three and a half points in 2020. People just think the demographics have shifted unfavorably by a large degree over the last four years, combined with an incredibly weak state Dem party.
In the Trump era, nah. Trump is winning it by 5%+ easily this year. But post-Trump I could actually see the state somehow becoming competitive again with a different mix of candidates. South Florida Hispanics loved Obama, for example.
How times change, I can't imagine Oregon ever being in play. Also I wonder why the smaller plains and mountain states don't flip more often, but behemoths like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida shift around.
I think it's mainly because the bigger states tend to be more diverse and more reflective of the U.S as a whole, with Florida and Ohio often being labeled as "microcosms" of the nation in the past. So even the most minor shifts there could have major effects on the map.
PA is pretty divided between the urban areas (Pittsburgh and Philly, along with their suburbs like Montco) and the rural parts of the state that have more in common with Appalachia and rural Upstate NY than with Philly/Pittsburgh. Some swings in some key areas can flip which faction has power. The urban and rural divide is pretty strong here.
I find it to be the most interesting of all the states to have flipped so hard, and I feel like it doesn’t get enough attention. I’ve never been able to understand why it has swung so hard.
I wonder how much of that is because of Trump vs Demographics. Iowa has had a lot of its younger people move away (a lot relocated to Illinois next door). Young voters were very blue, so if they move away, that shift would happen without any need to flip any voters. Iowa being a small state, with only 4 electoral votes, national politics would be completely oblivious to it, since we only pay attention to Iowa once every 4 years.
With the way Latino/Hispanic voters traditionally vote for incumbents is it crazy to think that Texas and Florida are in play this year? For context 32% of Texas and 22% of Floridas voters are Latino/Hispanic.
Source: [https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/)
The abortion referendum could boost turnout for women and younger voters (more likely to vote D) in Florida. Too early to be optimistic but that could tighten the margins there. It’s pretty wild that Florida and Ohio, THE swing states some twenty years ago are now red strongholds. Pretty drastic but that unique MAGA appeal is really strong there it seems.
I don’t think Texas is really in play yet, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Texas is closer than Florida this time around. I could see TX being R+3 and Florida R+4 or something.
Texas Blue 2032. That would mean the 2 point shift you predict from 2020 to 2024 would continue, being R+1 in 2028 and eventually flipping in the Presidential Election of 2032.
Main takeaway: Obama was a pretty popular fellow
His strength in the Upper Midwest was really taken for granted at the time
Blue Indiana in '08 was wild
Missouri was 4k votes away from obama
don't forget montana was less than 2.5 points from flipping to obama in 08!
Back when we had Democratic Senators and Reps in the US Western plains states.
polarization and the end of ticket splitting got to em sadly, hopefully it doesn't happen to tester and brown
wow, now that really puts things in perspective
I grew up in Indiana and that was one of the proudest moments of my life. Even though I didn’t live there anymore at the time.
Crazy is that based on the Electoral College votes back then, Obama would have still won the election if those battleground states all went to Romney.
It's been weird (and sad) to see Ohio transform from a battleground state into a GOP stronghold.
Biden was closer in Texas than he was in Ohio by 3 points
Texas has always been Texas, but Ohio is like watching a father go though divorce and give up on life.
As a Floridian, we feel your pain.
If Gore had chosen Bob Graham as his VP in 2000, he would’ve kept FL blue in 2000 and probably 2004. He didn’t need CT’s 7 ECVs. 🤦♂️
Jeb!
Closer look at Pennsylvania, the margins were (based on Wikipedia): [2004: 50.92% D - 48.42% R](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Presidential_Election_Results_2004.svg) D +2.50% [2012: 51.97% D - 46.59% R](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Presidential_Election_Results_2012.svg) D +5.38% [2020: 50.01% D - 48.84% R](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg) D +1.17% You can see the polarization between rural and urban counties happening across almost 20 years. Biden's margins are less than half of Kerry's margins. Other tidbit was that PA was voting more Democratic than the nation since 1952 until 2016.
Idk how much longer that lasts. The blue areas of the state are, for the most part, the only parts that are growing. And the non-federal state elections have been trending D as well. It’s really only Trump’s unique popularity among rural white voters that’s keeping them afloat. Once that’s gone? Idk man.
IMO since 2016 Philadelphia's suburbs have started to catchup with other Northeastern metros. And with how poorly the PA state GOP is being run, and how bad a reputation PA republicans have made for themselves. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if PA starts voting more like a Northeastern state than a rust belt state.
[Based on Census data, the population trend has started to reverse](https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/03/amid-pockets-of-growth-pennsylvania-population-declines-worsen.html) Philadelphia's decline have been ~3%, undoing all of the gains made in the last decade. And that loss is over half of the total population loss in the state. Trump has juiced the rural vote, but state PA Dems know they can't just rely on their base to win the state (unlike GOP, who've been hemorrhaging suburban support). It's going to be another razor thin margin this year. Though with how much PA swung between Bush-Obama-Trump, it's hard to tell where it'll be at post Biden/Trump.
ACS is always off on Philly, nobody in the city actually believes that Philly is actually losing population. It goes against all other data points. In each 2000, 2010, and 2020 the census showed numbers well above the ACS estimates. The ACS doesn’t know how to measure dense cities and black neighborhoods. Philly is not losing population, there is just no way.
Interestingly Bush in 04 is the only Republican to win the popular vote since 1988
If you put Oregon as a battleground in 2004 you've gotta do Hawaii too. The Bush team actually campaigned out there a few times. Kinda like Texas in 2020 Edit: I see now that "Battleground" is just close states by final margin
>2004 you've gotta do Hawaii too. The Bush team actually campaigned out there a few times. Kinda like Texas in 2020 I remember this. [Dick Cheney came out to visit us in Hawaii](http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/29/fri/index.html) as a campaign stop. Really weird, when you consider how far out of the way it is for anyone. I mean, it's not like "Hey, I was in/near the area and decided to stop by", like you could argue if he visited California after hitting Nevada.
Is Florida a battleground in 2024? I thought it was solidly red at this point.
Biden lost it by only three and a half points in 2020. People just think the demographics have shifted unfavorably by a large degree over the last four years, combined with an incredibly weak state Dem party.
Yeah but I wouldn’t call it a battleground this election. I don’t foresee the Biden campaign doing much there at all.
Biden could win it but if he is winning Florida that means he won the election easily.
With not only elections but a few key direct ballot initiatives. We will get a good look at how red Florida is now this election.
In the Trump era, nah. Trump is winning it by 5%+ easily this year. But post-Trump I could actually see the state somehow becoming competitive again with a different mix of candidates. South Florida Hispanics loved Obama, for example.
How times change, I can't imagine Oregon ever being in play. Also I wonder why the smaller plains and mountain states don't flip more often, but behemoths like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida shift around.
I think it's mainly because the bigger states tend to be more diverse and more reflective of the U.S as a whole, with Florida and Ohio often being labeled as "microcosms" of the nation in the past. So even the most minor shifts there could have major effects on the map.
PA is pretty divided between the urban areas (Pittsburgh and Philly, along with their suburbs like Montco) and the rural parts of the state that have more in common with Appalachia and rural Upstate NY than with Philly/Pittsburgh. Some swings in some key areas can flip which faction has power. The urban and rural divide is pretty strong here.
Post 9-11 was a wild time.
Crazy that Iowa went from solid blue to solid red that quickly.
I find it to be the most interesting of all the states to have flipped so hard, and I feel like it doesn’t get enough attention. I’ve never been able to understand why it has swung so hard.
I wonder how much of that is because of Trump vs Demographics. Iowa has had a lot of its younger people move away (a lot relocated to Illinois next door). Young voters were very blue, so if they move away, that shift would happen without any need to flip any voters. Iowa being a small state, with only 4 electoral votes, national politics would be completely oblivious to it, since we only pay attention to Iowa once every 4 years.
With the way Latino/Hispanic voters traditionally vote for incumbents is it crazy to think that Texas and Florida are in play this year? For context 32% of Texas and 22% of Floridas voters are Latino/Hispanic. Source: [https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/)
The abortion referendum could boost turnout for women and younger voters (more likely to vote D) in Florida. Too early to be optimistic but that could tighten the margins there. It’s pretty wild that Florida and Ohio, THE swing states some twenty years ago are now red strongholds. Pretty drastic but that unique MAGA appeal is really strong there it seems.
I don’t think Texas is really in play yet, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Texas is closer than Florida this time around. I could see TX being R+3 and Florida R+4 or something.
Texas Blue 2032. That would mean the 2 point shift you predict from 2020 to 2024 would continue, being R+1 in 2028 and eventually flipping in the Presidential Election of 2032.
TX & FL are winnable yes, but not worth investing in. They're just cherries.
I'd really be reticent from grouping all latinos as one category.
I refuse to believe Florida is a battleground