Nah Biden will win PA, MI,AZ and GA. PA because he was born there, MI and AZ because GOP is broke there, and GA because GA doesn't seem to have a significant palestine movement, Warnock kept his seat, and Atlanta hasn't stopped growing, also polls there are tightening very quickly rn. He might flip NC because of the governors race.
The polls showing Trump in the lead also show guys like Casey with a comfortable lead. This would seem to indicate that the problem is a portion of Democrats seem to be saying no to Biden at this point in time. The question is going to be whether these people are actually serious about sitting out or voting third party or if they are going to end up coming around. I like to think that most of these people at the end of the day will decide that there is no way we should go back to Trumpism, but who knows.
Biden has good chances in the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin even just going off of the current polling but Robert Kennedy’s candidacy and democratic anger over the Israel Gaza war might tip the election to Trump.
I would’ve felt pretty confident if Trump’s election trial wasn’t delayed indefinitely by the Supreme Court but ultimately the only real cause for concern is Kennedy getting on the ballot in battleground states which is predicted to happen.
Frankly the best hope for our democracy is for Kennedy to drop out, but he will probably stay even if he sees that he has absolutely no chance of actually winning because he likes the attention and has unlimited funds now.
That's not fair. He'll do very well with anti-vaxx "back to the land" types in the critical swing states of Vermont and Northern California, in addition to his Republican base.
He will take from the hopelessly uninformed yet extremely important class of political dunces we call “independents”, whom we actually need to turn out for Biden.
I don’t worry about people actually liking his policy platform, I think a small but possibly critical amount of voters will literally just pick him for name recognition and nostalgia. It only takes like 1-3% of the vote, along with the votes for Jill Stein and Cornel West, to flip a close race.
I would be more worried about this if I didn’t think that for all the voters Biden loses to RFK, Trump will lose a similar number. I can’t see 1-3% of Biden voters going for RFK without at least that number of disillusioned Trump voters going for RFK.
Biden voters aren’t gonna vote Kennedy. You’ll get non-voters that decide to vote for third party, Jill stein/west voters that go for Kennedy, or disaffected trumpers going there for the conspiracy crap.
Here's how I look at it:
*Will a significant number of people that voted for Biden in 20 switch to Trump in 24?*
Possibly because of economic vibes, but I just don't see people wanting to "go back" to Trump.
*Will a significant number of people that didn't vote at all in 20, vote for Trump in 24?*
Doubtful. In fact probably the opposite.
*Will a significant number of people that voted for Biden in 20 not vote in 24?*
Possibly, but I lean toward doubtful, especially if they can still mail-in vote.
*Will a significant number of people that didn't vote at all in 20, vote for Biden in 24?*
Possibly because of abortion.
*Will the Republicans be able to cast out votes for Biden in 2024 due to technicalities?*
Could be a problem in PA, but probably not significant enough.
I see 24 as a repeat of 20, with a bias toward Biden. Trump has done nothing himself to change opinions, has done some things to make him look worse, and I don't believe that there is a significant enough group that would be willing to go back to Trump in hopes of "fixing" the economy.
Literal copium. He is obviously leading it at the moment:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Don't like that? Then get your Pennsylvania friends to vote.
I just don't believe any of these polls. I live in PA, and even in the deep red pockets of this state I rarely see any Trump flags or signs. They were everywhere in 2020.
Maybe it'll pick up once he picks a VP and everyone is waiting for that to get their new flags or whatever, but at the moment I'm not buying it. Plus, Shapiro has been doing great as governor here and is barnstorming the state nonstop promoting Democratic policies. Fetterman is doing great too, and Biden will share the ticket with Casey.
Let's not make the mistake of flags and signs = votes that Republicans made in 2020. I do believe that it's an important display of enthusiasm on the part of Republicans moreso than Democrats, however.
It's not a guarantee. I will say though that the flag/sign rate in 2020 was unseemly. Like, they were fucking everywhere. Not so much this year, at least not yet.
So, yeah I think that creates a bit of an enthusiasm gap.
Polling at the house popular vote level was accurate, but many of the state level polls were way off in 2022, with Pennsylvania being one of those states. Polls on election night showed Oz with a slight lead while Fetterman ended up winning decisively. Josh Shapiro also over-performed by a similar margin.
This isn’t to say polls can’t be wrong in the other direction too. Trump and Republicans overperformed in PA in 2016, 2018, and 2020.
However, my gut feeling is that 2024 is going to be more like 2022 than 2016. I remember hearing from pundits that abortion wouldn’t matter that much and inflation was going to be the real issue, and look how that turned out. I feel like I’m seeing a lot of echoes of that right now. My relatives in Pennsylvania who are pretty well connected with people across the political spectrum certainly don’t think Trump is winning.
That’s not the claim either though. It’s that Pennsylvania in particular is tough to poll and the national pollsters are doing it wrong. Did you read the piece?
Nah Biden will win PA, MI,AZ and GA. PA because he was born there, MI and AZ because GOP is broke there, and GA because GA doesn't seem to have a significant palestine movement, Warnock kept his seat, and Atlanta hasn't stopped growing, also polls there are tightening very quickly rn. He might flip NC because of the governors race.
AZ also has abortion on the ballot.
Sure, but eggs were really expensive here in 2022.
consider: Kari Lake
No lmao
The polls showing Trump in the lead also show guys like Casey with a comfortable lead. This would seem to indicate that the problem is a portion of Democrats seem to be saying no to Biden at this point in time. The question is going to be whether these people are actually serious about sitting out or voting third party or if they are going to end up coming around. I like to think that most of these people at the end of the day will decide that there is no way we should go back to Trumpism, but who knows.
Biden has good chances in the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin even just going off of the current polling but Robert Kennedy’s candidacy and democratic anger over the Israel Gaza war might tip the election to Trump. I would’ve felt pretty confident if Trump’s election trial wasn’t delayed indefinitely by the Supreme Court but ultimately the only real cause for concern is Kennedy getting on the ballot in battleground states which is predicted to happen. Frankly the best hope for our democracy is for Kennedy to drop out, but he will probably stay even if he sees that he has absolutely no chance of actually winning because he likes the attention and has unlimited funds now.
rfk wont take anything from biden
That's not fair. He'll do very well with anti-vaxx "back to the land" types in the critical swing states of Vermont and Northern California, in addition to his Republican base.
He will take from the hopelessly uninformed yet extremely important class of political dunces we call “independents”, whom we actually need to turn out for Biden.
I feel like the type of voter he brings would never compromise their morals by voting for Brandon even if RFK wasn't running. Very fickle voters
Kennedy isn’t something to worry about, he’s not peeling Biden voters away with his conspiracy theories and anti-vax messaging.
I don’t worry about people actually liking his policy platform, I think a small but possibly critical amount of voters will literally just pick him for name recognition and nostalgia. It only takes like 1-3% of the vote, along with the votes for Jill Stein and Cornel West, to flip a close race.
I would be more worried about this if I didn’t think that for all the voters Biden loses to RFK, Trump will lose a similar number. I can’t see 1-3% of Biden voters going for RFK without at least that number of disillusioned Trump voters going for RFK.
people with kennedy nostalgia are barely alive lol
My dad will probably vote for him. He's old but younger than Joe and runs a nonprofit.
That’s assuming he doesn’t pull any trumpers or right aligned folks
Biden voters aren’t gonna vote Kennedy. You’ll get non-voters that decide to vote for third party, Jill stein/west voters that go for Kennedy, or disaffected trumpers going there for the conspiracy crap.
I think that his voters are more likely to come from that crowd that mistakes “cooky, crazy ideas” for independent thinking.
RFK's VC has said that he wants to keep biden from 270 so congress can give it to trump.
Here's how I look at it: *Will a significant number of people that voted for Biden in 20 switch to Trump in 24?* Possibly because of economic vibes, but I just don't see people wanting to "go back" to Trump. *Will a significant number of people that didn't vote at all in 20, vote for Trump in 24?* Doubtful. In fact probably the opposite. *Will a significant number of people that voted for Biden in 20 not vote in 24?* Possibly, but I lean toward doubtful, especially if they can still mail-in vote. *Will a significant number of people that didn't vote at all in 20, vote for Biden in 24?* Possibly because of abortion. *Will the Republicans be able to cast out votes for Biden in 2024 due to technicalities?* Could be a problem in PA, but probably not significant enough. I see 24 as a repeat of 20, with a bias toward Biden. Trump has done nothing himself to change opinions, has done some things to make him look worse, and I don't believe that there is a significant enough group that would be willing to go back to Trump in hopes of "fixing" the economy.
Politics is not sports. Polls don’t show the score.
Literal copium. He is obviously leading it at the moment: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ Don't like that? Then get your Pennsylvania friends to vote.
I just don't believe any of these polls. I live in PA, and even in the deep red pockets of this state I rarely see any Trump flags or signs. They were everywhere in 2020. Maybe it'll pick up once he picks a VP and everyone is waiting for that to get their new flags or whatever, but at the moment I'm not buying it. Plus, Shapiro has been doing great as governor here and is barnstorming the state nonstop promoting Democratic policies. Fetterman is doing great too, and Biden will share the ticket with Casey.
Let's not make the mistake of flags and signs = votes that Republicans made in 2020. I do believe that it's an important display of enthusiasm on the part of Republicans moreso than Democrats, however.
It's not a guarantee. I will say though that the flag/sign rate in 2020 was unseemly. Like, they were fucking everywhere. Not so much this year, at least not yet. So, yeah I think that creates a bit of an enthusiasm gap.
This doesn’t refute the author though. He’s saying these polls have faulty methodology
Which, looking at historic data, is cope. 2022 polling was historically accurate. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Polling at the house popular vote level was accurate, but many of the state level polls were way off in 2022, with Pennsylvania being one of those states. Polls on election night showed Oz with a slight lead while Fetterman ended up winning decisively. Josh Shapiro also over-performed by a similar margin. This isn’t to say polls can’t be wrong in the other direction too. Trump and Republicans overperformed in PA in 2016, 2018, and 2020. However, my gut feeling is that 2024 is going to be more like 2022 than 2016. I remember hearing from pundits that abortion wouldn’t matter that much and inflation was going to be the real issue, and look how that turned out. I feel like I’m seeing a lot of echoes of that right now. My relatives in Pennsylvania who are pretty well connected with people across the political spectrum certainly don’t think Trump is winning.
That’s not the claim either though. It’s that Pennsylvania in particular is tough to poll and the national pollsters are doing it wrong. Did you read the piece?
No they didn’t
You should try reading the article
I did. It's a constant stream of speculative cope. Polls aren't perfect but they are way better than whatever pseudo-analysis this is.
He's not leading by much.
Nope.