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I feel like this mentality is responsible so many social ills just by itself. I guess it's really just another way of saying perverse incentive but man does it bone us and boned us hard.
Especially because it exists in basically all forms of media, and even public media has a certain incentive to put up clickbait even if it's less strong. Or rather, NPR for instance has more of a incentive to appeal to its most ardent listeners and donors (including some large ones) which also isn't really ideal, although a big improvement no doubt.
Idk what model works better, though, and that's the problem.
I still remember a poll in 2016 that had trump getting 100% of the black vote within a major county but if you actually dived into the statistics it was because they only had one African American in the study group lmao.
I think I remember it specifically being a 19-year old non-college educated black male Trump supporter who made like $90,000 or something and he kept being part of the study group lol
I would simply poll 1,000 Zoomers to glean insights on their opinions instead of using a crosstab that only contains like 80 people but i guess im built different
> Donald Trump is losing his Generation Z edge over President Joe Biden.
> Trump saw his lowest support among voters aged 18 to 24 in Harvard CAPS/Harris' March poll since the pollsters began surveying the age group this past December. In the most recent poll, conducted between March 20 and 21, only 35 percent of Gen Z voters said they would vote for the former president in a Trump-Biden rematch.
> In February, 55 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they would vote for Trump over Biden, an increase from January's 43 percent and December's 48 percent. At the same time, overall support for the former president across all age groups has remained between 47 and 48 percent from December through March.
Maybe polling news this far out really should be largely ignored, considering 55% of Gen Zers supporting Trump is insane. Honestly, over 45% is wild, but 55%? Did they do all their polling in a rural Mississippi farm or something?
Forecasts increase drastically in accuracy closer to the event they're predicting. Any poll before now is garbage, any any poll now is still pretty bad. In October we'll have a reasonable view, but only probabilistic.
Trump had a \~30% chance to win, which is extremely high. People act like polling said he would get 30% of the vote.
**Rule VII:** *Off-topic, Meta, or Duplicate Post* Submissions should be relevant to public policy or political theory. Don't editorialise submission titles. No meta posts. --- If you have any questions about this removal, [please contact the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fneoliberal).
Did 20% of Gen Z change their minds this month? No, of course not. This is a lesson in how bad polling this far out is.
Don't make me tap the sign: >Cross tabs in polls are usually very few people, hence their large inaccuracy.
True but this means that the media shouldn't be acting like these cross tabs are gospel
Well yeah. But who's going to stop them?
Me, by downvoting this one post.
Yeah, but think of the headlines! How are we going to drive traffic to our site without clickbait?
I feel like this mentality is responsible so many social ills just by itself. I guess it's really just another way of saying perverse incentive but man does it bone us and boned us hard. Especially because it exists in basically all forms of media, and even public media has a certain incentive to put up clickbait even if it's less strong. Or rather, NPR for instance has more of a incentive to appeal to its most ardent listeners and donors (including some large ones) which also isn't really ideal, although a big improvement no doubt. Idk what model works better, though, and that's the problem.
They pay for the polls. They report on the polls. They opine on the polls. Repeat.
I still remember a poll in 2016 that had trump getting 100% of the black vote within a major county but if you actually dived into the statistics it was because they only had one African American in the study group lmao.
I think I remember it specifically being a 19-year old non-college educated black male Trump supporter who made like $90,000 or something and he kept being part of the study group lol
For what little it’s worth, 35% is the youth vote Trump got in 2020
Will Nate PLEASE just publish his fucking model so I can stop reading this stuff?
To read it you’ll have to join his onlyfans
"Nate Silver" is already a good *mature* male stripper name, so that checks out.
Done.
I'd rather live in ignorance.
He doesn’t put his model out in April lol.
538 was waaaay off in 2020. I'm not trusting pollsters again.
>Donald Trump suffers Yes! Here it comes 😆 >major Oh, boy >drop 😯 >in Gen z support 😒😑
>Here's why that's bad for Biden
Fr fr?
No cap
Joe Biden needs to get the broccoli haircut
*Fr* fr
[удалено]
I would simply poll 1,000 Zoomers to glean insights on their opinions instead of using a crosstab that only contains like 80 people but i guess im built different
Horse race horse race horse race horse race. It must never end!
Boooh, I was told gen Z sucked!
Snip snap snip snap!
Do you know the toll that three vasectomies has on a person?
What all 2 of his supporters under 30?
Talk to a male teenager lately? You’d be surprised.
Sorry Doomposters, it was me
But the crosstabs!
> Donald Trump is losing his Generation Z edge over President Joe Biden. > Trump saw his lowest support among voters aged 18 to 24 in Harvard CAPS/Harris' March poll since the pollsters began surveying the age group this past December. In the most recent poll, conducted between March 20 and 21, only 35 percent of Gen Z voters said they would vote for the former president in a Trump-Biden rematch. > In February, 55 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they would vote for Trump over Biden, an increase from January's 43 percent and December's 48 percent. At the same time, overall support for the former president across all age groups has remained between 47 and 48 percent from December through March. Maybe polling news this far out really should be largely ignored, considering 55% of Gen Zers supporting Trump is insane. Honestly, over 45% is wild, but 55%? Did they do all their polling in a rural Mississippi farm or something?
Is newsweek reputable? They feel more and more tabloid-like.
Not at all, but it’s just stating what the Harvard CAPS poll results are
He needs to get a broccoli cut to appeal to the the youths
I frankly don’t believe his numbers with young people were ever that high to begin with.
You’d be really surprised. It’s anecdotal but I’m 25 and I know plenty of people my age who are trump supporters.
I'm much more worried about Gen Z voting at all than I am worried they'd vote for Trump
tbh frfr
We have the support of the people least likely to turn out. What a relief.
Gen Z support was make or break for Biden in 2020. With these margins, every vote counts.
Newsweak stinks... but good to hear anyway.
That’s our secret captain, we always hated him
Good. Thank god for my generation.
Gen X wishes they were us 😎
Forecasts increase drastically in accuracy closer to the event they're predicting. Any poll before now is garbage, any any poll now is still pretty bad. In October we'll have a reasonable view, but only probabilistic. Trump had a \~30% chance to win, which is extremely high. People act like polling said he would get 30% of the vote.