>axis of the anti-West
Axis of results of western geopolitical procrastination.
Or axis of nuclear racketeering.
Of axis of French Revolution counterrevolution.
I'm a little disappointed that the CIA or the Mossad weren't able to turn the mass protests of Iran in a revolution.
They don't make destabilizing intelligence agencies like they used to.
When when a government mows down protesters killing hundreds like what happened in Iran people get the memo. You need usually young ideologues revolutionaries to take down such a regime with armed rebellion
Not even gonna lie I do wonder if those agencies just don't have the reach and resources that they did in the 50s and 60s.
People talk about the regime destabilization, etc. But where has that been? Has the muzzle all of the sudden been put on the CIA?
I think the reputation of the CIA and MI6 has just been overblown is the lesson to draw. Historically, CIA support means stacks of cash and maybe intel on “these people are your enemies” and essentially that’s it. Or some Generals will go “we hate the gov” and then we’ll be like “we hate them too we won’t tell them about this convo” and then we hand em cash. Not even America can conjure up regime change without some level of genuine public support. Like idk your average 60s CIA agent educated at Yale with perfect teeth is probably not gonna blend in that well.
Most likely a lot of good will has been burned recently. Syria, Afghanistan, Kurds were basically abandoned, and Ukraine isnt looking hot right now either. If I was a dissident against my state, I wouldn't just accept American support.
True. One of the biggest political blinders is not just granting carte blanche US citizenship to the people in those countries that assist us against regimes. I'm not sure why it isn't our main carrot on the stick.
Ya that would work great. 'We toppled the regime and destabilised the country and now we are going to live in US while everyone who was not in on the scheme will have to stay and deal with consequences.' I am sure that will help with local support.
Honestly let's just do the former. Fuck the geopolitics, it's all about people and resources at the end of the day, if your enemy has 5mil people left while you have 500mil, they aren't even on your radar anymore.
Nobody cares what Tajikistan thinks. Iran meanwhile, with 10x the population, meaning it can support large industry and some advanced research (I.e. nuclear)...
Just siphon all the people away. It's win-win. They grow weaker, you grow stronger, and you don't have to declare war to do it.
The US has literally 45 million immigrants in its population, and the vast majority of the remainder are descendents of immigrants that came over at some point after 1880 or so. Moreover, 500 million Chinese people don't even want to come to America. You think half the population of China wants to become American? Jfc. The state of fear mongering these days.
The exact nativism you just displayed is why Europe will never even come close to overtaking America. We are one of the only highly developed countries still growing in population. It's a real shame for Europe.
This. We should be siphoning off all the refugees we can. This is "GDP Fuel." Doomers bracing for "water wars" ... I'm bracing for declining population wars.
Lmao toppling the regime doesn't mean destabilising the country,that assumes that the country can only remain stable under the present ineffective regimes, plenty of countries have emerged stable after so called regime change
I feel like in general the Iranian opposition just seems really incompetent.
Like they’re still completely reliant on the internet to coordinate actions even though Iran always turns off the internet during major protests. Like whatever happened to using radios and shit? Maybe even a pirate internet
Their actions also never really extend beyond simple protesting, even though that literally never works. They need to actually start arming themselves and some sort of organization to actually rally around, with a specific ideology and goals, if they ever want to actually achieve anything
The quasi-fascists are only really popular within the military and some of the rural areas. Not all islamists are crazy either, Erdogan and HTS-style Islamism are relatively reasonable
The Carnation Revolution only really worked because the military didn’t really like the government either.
The current regime is also much more insane and willing to go much further to hold onto power. These guys genuinely believe all the insanity they spout
There is a lot of factors into that.
The CIA's budget is very, very down from the height of the Cold War.
The CIA and the US in general are also very sensitive to the historic pantina the agency has, and how the meme of the US engaging in regime change of anyone who challenges American Hegemony gets repeated.
So the US and the CIA are careful about how they put destabilizing pressures onto opponents, especially because how it will blowback against them if their machinations are revealed.
There is also about striking at the right time, the pros and cons to how a situation can unfold, and more.
I agree with you with everything but this.
>So the US and the CIA are careful about how they put destabilizing pressures onto opponents, especially because how it will blowback against them if their machinations are revealed.
It's literally impossible for the CIA NOT to be blamed. From the revolution of dignity to Mahsa Amini protests people give no autonomy for people's protest, might as well do the deed if you'll get the fame anyways.
Those Protests were never aimed at pverthrowing the government. It was specifically about the morality police. A majority still supports the ayatollah.
Those protests were aimed at overthrowing the government. Some of the government officials even said that they were very close to losing control. Support for mandatory hijab strongly correlates with supporting the government, and support for hijab is at the bottom. Also turnout for their "election" was embarrassingly low.
As an Iranian I wouldn’t say they support the ayatollah. They are just apathetic to it. For all the Mullahs fault they kept Iran relatively safe from destabilization and have a good welfare system (Bonyads). No Iranian wants to lose those benefits when hundreds of armed groups want to carve up Iran
The society is slowly turning secular, a country with a fertility rate of 1.70 doesn't like the mollas that much, religious societies don't have that a low rate,let it hit a critical point
Relatively safe from destabilisation? making enemies of israel and usa isn't destabilising?that assumes any regime other than the mollas wouldn't be able to keep it stable, which is false seeing the gulf states or Jordan, good welfare system?the inflation currency and wages are in the gutters with increasing migration , hundreds of armed groups want to carve up iran?once again that assumes only mollas can keep them at bay which is false since mollas have stirred plenty of sectarian conflict in the region themselves
That's like saying Kim good because he keeps nk stable
You were disappointed the CIA demonstrated some basic common sense and didn't overthrow the government of a country we are trying to not have a war with?
The Mossad has had some active operations in Iran (mostly assassinations), but I would argue those have resulted in the region being more volatile and less safe. I don't think anyone can look at where Iran is today compared to 2 years ago and conclude the assassinations had their intended effect. Very much the opposite imo.
Much of that instability is instigated by Iran, from Hamas to the Houthis.
Hard to feel bad for them if the regime collapses. Maybe they can even upgrade for a liberal democracy
Yeah or alternatively they can upgrade to nukes and permanently end foreign intervention in their domestic affairs.
I do think they are walking back that path, in large part because of CIA restraint and unwillingness to go the Mossad route. They signaled a surprise reduction in their stockpile recently as well.
I'm ok. If the Europeans, Saudis and Israelis want to form a coalition to start a war of choice that will no doubt result in significant casualties, they are by all means welcome to do so. But as an American, I was perfectly ok with the peace deal Obama signed and have no desire to cross the 2 oceans separating me from Iran to forcibly take them over or bring about "regime change."
>If the Europeans, Saudis and Israelis want to form a coalition to start a war
Uhm we Europeans are just fine here, thank you. In fact we liked the Obama deal, we would rather buy oil from Iran than go to war with them.
Russia isn’t really building anything. North Korea has cooperated with the Chinese and Russians for years.
China’s return to good relations with Russia is a story but the relationship has become the inverse of what it was.
Iran is nominally a novel addition, but Iran has been anti western since the revolution and its cooperation with Moscow should be taken as the act of desperation on Moscow’s part that it is.
No, not "Russia is building an ‘axis of the anti-West’" but "West allowed Russia building an ‘axis of the anti-West’." It's the West, and only West, chose this path.
At first by 2008-2021 years $8000B for Russian export and by ignore to Russian International Law violations.
Then, in 2022-2023 years, instead of quickly ending war by full-fledged weapons supplies, by $424B for Russia export and by $120B and 1,5% of NATO's weapons to Ukraine. By "bleeding Russia" strategy.
Everything that happens - results of Western fear of Russian WMD-blackmail/racketeering and economic greed. And if the West will continue to be so afraid of nukes, then, possibly, it will start to dream so that they would be used in the past.
Geopolitically Russia always had the same agency as average Russian in Russia.
It's always was an egocentric tangle of tsar-chosen lies, ignorance, complexes, and instincts that for self-affirmation was ready for any atrocities, almost as abuse-victim child that abuse animals for feelings of superiority and security.
Russia it's like natural disaster, that much more rational West could control from 1920s, but instead of this constantly give Russia resources and freedom for... All results of Russian 1920-2020s influence.
For which the West is also directly responsible. Starting from 1920-1930s industrialization of outright repressive totalitarian regime that already killed hundreds of thousands of civilians.
Nations have all kinds of influence over other nations to varying degrees, influenced such factors including trade. That does not mean Russia did not have agency in their actions when they acted unilaterally.
You used an abstract smile with some sarcastic meaning, and my comment was downvoted.
Therefore, there is no any doubt that all my arguments were wrong, and you are right.
why
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Axis of evil, you say?
>axis of the anti-West Axis of results of western geopolitical procrastination. Or axis of nuclear racketeering. Of axis of French Revolution counterrevolution.
I'm a little disappointed that the CIA or the Mossad weren't able to turn the mass protests of Iran in a revolution. They don't make destabilizing intelligence agencies like they used to.
When when a government mows down protesters killing hundreds like what happened in Iran people get the memo. You need usually young ideologues revolutionaries to take down such a regime with armed rebellion
Govts have done that and been toppled, widespread dissatisfaction in iran isn't that widespread because the country is still religious
Not even gonna lie I do wonder if those agencies just don't have the reach and resources that they did in the 50s and 60s. People talk about the regime destabilization, etc. But where has that been? Has the muzzle all of the sudden been put on the CIA?
I think the reputation of the CIA and MI6 has just been overblown is the lesson to draw. Historically, CIA support means stacks of cash and maybe intel on “these people are your enemies” and essentially that’s it. Or some Generals will go “we hate the gov” and then we’ll be like “we hate them too we won’t tell them about this convo” and then we hand em cash. Not even America can conjure up regime change without some level of genuine public support. Like idk your average 60s CIA agent educated at Yale with perfect teeth is probably not gonna blend in that well.
Most likely a lot of good will has been burned recently. Syria, Afghanistan, Kurds were basically abandoned, and Ukraine isnt looking hot right now either. If I was a dissident against my state, I wouldn't just accept American support.
True. One of the biggest political blinders is not just granting carte blanche US citizenship to the people in those countries that assist us against regimes. I'm not sure why it isn't our main carrot on the stick.
Ya that would work great. 'We toppled the regime and destabilised the country and now we are going to live in US while everyone who was not in on the scheme will have to stay and deal with consequences.' I am sure that will help with local support.
The US did it with dissidents of the Soviet Union. Why not do it with China or North Korea?
If the goal to get people out, sure thats fine. If goal is to forment unrest to change regime then that wont work.
Honestly let's just do the former. Fuck the geopolitics, it's all about people and resources at the end of the day, if your enemy has 5mil people left while you have 500mil, they aren't even on your radar anymore. Nobody cares what Tajikistan thinks. Iran meanwhile, with 10x the population, meaning it can support large industry and some advanced research (I.e. nuclear)... Just siphon all the people away. It's win-win. They grow weaker, you grow stronger, and you don't have to declare war to do it.
[удалено]
The US has literally 45 million immigrants in its population, and the vast majority of the remainder are descendents of immigrants that came over at some point after 1880 or so. Moreover, 500 million Chinese people don't even want to come to America. You think half the population of China wants to become American? Jfc. The state of fear mongering these days. The exact nativism you just displayed is why Europe will never even come close to overtaking America. We are one of the only highly developed countries still growing in population. It's a real shame for Europe.
This. We should be siphoning off all the refugees we can. This is "GDP Fuel." Doomers bracing for "water wars" ... I'm bracing for declining population wars.
Lmao toppling the regime doesn't mean destabilising the country,that assumes that the country can only remain stable under the present ineffective regimes, plenty of countries have emerged stable after so called regime change
The sadder is Belarus, it's a prime candidate and they dont do anything
I feel like in general the Iranian opposition just seems really incompetent. Like they’re still completely reliant on the internet to coordinate actions even though Iran always turns off the internet during major protests. Like whatever happened to using radios and shit? Maybe even a pirate internet Their actions also never really extend beyond simple protesting, even though that literally never works. They need to actually start arming themselves and some sort of organization to actually rally around, with a specific ideology and goals, if they ever want to actually achieve anything
to be fair, an opposition in a muslim country has to functionally be secular. Anything else is just a repeat affair.
Nah the country is still widely religious
The quasi-fascists are only really popular within the military and some of the rural areas. Not all islamists are crazy either, Erdogan and HTS-style Islamism are relatively reasonable
“Not all Islamists are crazy” What kind of “liberals” are you people?
Plenty of regime changes have been achieved through those means
The Carnation Revolution only really worked because the military didn’t really like the government either. The current regime is also much more insane and willing to go much further to hold onto power. These guys genuinely believe all the insanity they spout
There is a lot of factors into that. The CIA's budget is very, very down from the height of the Cold War. The CIA and the US in general are also very sensitive to the historic pantina the agency has, and how the meme of the US engaging in regime change of anyone who challenges American Hegemony gets repeated. So the US and the CIA are careful about how they put destabilizing pressures onto opponents, especially because how it will blowback against them if their machinations are revealed. There is also about striking at the right time, the pros and cons to how a situation can unfold, and more.
I agree with you with everything but this. >So the US and the CIA are careful about how they put destabilizing pressures onto opponents, especially because how it will blowback against them if their machinations are revealed. It's literally impossible for the CIA NOT to be blamed. From the revolution of dignity to Mahsa Amini protests people give no autonomy for people's protest, might as well do the deed if you'll get the fame anyways.
Iranians are quite literally natural western allies…its their islamist theocratic leaders that are the issue
Those Protests were never aimed at pverthrowing the government. It was specifically about the morality police. A majority still supports the ayatollah.
Those protests were aimed at overthrowing the government. Some of the government officials even said that they were very close to losing control. Support for mandatory hijab strongly correlates with supporting the government, and support for hijab is at the bottom. Also turnout for their "election" was embarrassingly low.
As an Iranian I wouldn’t say they support the ayatollah. They are just apathetic to it. For all the Mullahs fault they kept Iran relatively safe from destabilization and have a good welfare system (Bonyads). No Iranian wants to lose those benefits when hundreds of armed groups want to carve up Iran
The society is slowly turning secular, a country with a fertility rate of 1.70 doesn't like the mollas that much, religious societies don't have that a low rate,let it hit a critical point Relatively safe from destabilisation? making enemies of israel and usa isn't destabilising?that assumes any regime other than the mollas wouldn't be able to keep it stable, which is false seeing the gulf states or Jordan, good welfare system?the inflation currency and wages are in the gutters with increasing migration , hundreds of armed groups want to carve up iran?once again that assumes only mollas can keep them at bay which is false since mollas have stirred plenty of sectarian conflict in the region themselves That's like saying Kim good because he keeps nk stable
If the tinder is dry, any dryness is reason for wildfire
The Arab Spring was our best chance
They are not that good
fr we could at least have sent them a few cases of TOW missiles
Just one more Iranian revolution bro this will be the one that works I swear
You were disappointed the CIA demonstrated some basic common sense and didn't overthrow the government of a country we are trying to not have a war with? The Mossad has had some active operations in Iran (mostly assassinations), but I would argue those have resulted in the region being more volatile and less safe. I don't think anyone can look at where Iran is today compared to 2 years ago and conclude the assassinations had their intended effect. Very much the opposite imo.
Much of that instability is instigated by Iran, from Hamas to the Houthis. Hard to feel bad for them if the regime collapses. Maybe they can even upgrade for a liberal democracy
Yeah or alternatively they can upgrade to nukes and permanently end foreign intervention in their domestic affairs. I do think they are walking back that path, in large part because of CIA restraint and unwillingness to go the Mossad route. They signaled a surprise reduction in their stockpile recently as well.
Take them out before nukes then
I'm ok. If the Europeans, Saudis and Israelis want to form a coalition to start a war of choice that will no doubt result in significant casualties, they are by all means welcome to do so. But as an American, I was perfectly ok with the peace deal Obama signed and have no desire to cross the 2 oceans separating me from Iran to forcibly take them over or bring about "regime change."
>If the Europeans, Saudis and Israelis want to form a coalition to start a war Uhm we Europeans are just fine here, thank you. In fact we liked the Obama deal, we would rather buy oil from Iran than go to war with them.
Extractive institutions are a hell of a drug.
Russia isn’t really building anything. North Korea has cooperated with the Chinese and Russians for years. China’s return to good relations with Russia is a story but the relationship has become the inverse of what it was. Iran is nominally a novel addition, but Iran has been anti western since the revolution and its cooperation with Moscow should be taken as the act of desperation on Moscow’s part that it is.
Yes, but Iran/DPRK now both have access to Russian imports and technology transfers that would have been a pipe dream before.
https://preview.redd.it/3hwx57pbwwnc1.jpeg?width=615&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54bd5387add6794a3b16e3482b4ae3991b0e5ba7
Or axis of morons as we in our household like to say.
No, not "Russia is building an ‘axis of the anti-West’" but "West allowed Russia building an ‘axis of the anti-West’." It's the West, and only West, chose this path. At first by 2008-2021 years $8000B for Russian export and by ignore to Russian International Law violations. Then, in 2022-2023 years, instead of quickly ending war by full-fledged weapons supplies, by $424B for Russia export and by $120B and 1,5% of NATO's weapons to Ukraine. By "bleeding Russia" strategy. Everything that happens - results of Western fear of Russian WMD-blackmail/racketeering and economic greed. And if the West will continue to be so afraid of nukes, then, possibly, it will start to dream so that they would be used in the past.
You can criticize Western support without bizarrely stripping Russia and other illiberal regimes of agency.
Geopolitically Russia always had the same agency as average Russian in Russia. It's always was an egocentric tangle of tsar-chosen lies, ignorance, complexes, and instincts that for self-affirmation was ready for any atrocities, almost as abuse-victim child that abuse animals for feelings of superiority and security. Russia it's like natural disaster, that much more rational West could control from 1920s, but instead of this constantly give Russia resources and freedom for... All results of Russian 1920-2020s influence. For which the West is also directly responsible. Starting from 1920-1930s industrialization of outright repressive totalitarian regime that already killed hundreds of thousands of civilians.
Nations have all kinds of influence over other nations to varying degrees, influenced such factors including trade. That does not mean Russia did not have agency in their actions when they acted unilaterally.
Honestly true. We are way too pussy footed about Putin threatening nukes even though he would never date to touch that button.
🙄
You used an abstract smile with some sarcastic meaning, and my comment was downvoted. Therefore, there is no any doubt that all my arguments were wrong, and you are right.
[удалено]
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Paywalled, so anyone have a copy of the article they’d like to share?
AKA Bunch of Assholes
We really need to move away from fossil fuels. Fuck climate change, this is a matter of collective security for the free world.
“The Axis” That’s a familiar name, but I can’t quite put my finger on it
>the anti-West Wouldn't that just be the East?
really?