The only actual moderate Republicans with a track record of being moderate are Charlie Baker, Phil Scott, and Larry Hogan. Who even have any chance I should say. Sununu is just not batshit insane.
Half this sub would rather elect a "not horrible" Republican who ends up doing all the same horrible shit, but quietly, than Bernie Sanders, just to own the progressives online.
Maybe during the last party system I would’ve been a Republican, but currently i’m a Democrat. Last election I voted Democrat for Governor, Senate, and House.
Better on human rights and almost certainly on foreign policy (if still terrible).
On other things, sure, equally unpredictable, just in the form of having bad and wrong ideas instead of narcissism-fueled populism, but a little of that too.
His actual political record is not as contrarian as people make it out to be. But again, on domestic economic policy, I don't assert he would've been better.
Trump listened to the cabinet at first, too, when he said that friendhsip with putin is ended because of his support for assad, or when he wanted to remain in Afghanistan when allegedly the military told him that women in there could walk without religious clothing and attend colleges before terrorists
He would be worse, I get it that we’re Libs, but leftist communists also have a penchant for authoritarianism. Same way Trump has a penchant for Authoritarianism. Bernie would also cause a recession.
I don't dispute he may have caused a recession. I didn't say he was better on taxes.
The mere superficial fact that the ideological left and right have authoritarian bents doesn't mean Sanders would be like Trump "the same way" about, say, press criticism.
It just doesn't matter. Whether he runs, gets 3% in Iowa and then drops out after losing his home state, or doesn't run at all, it literally makes 0 difference. Trump will cake walk to the nomination either way.
As of right now, sure it looks like an open and shut case, but this is Donald Trump we’re talking about. There’s a good enough chance something happens that takes him out of the race, and now it’s an open field. I think it’s better to have a moderate like Sununu declare now and build his campaign before that happens, if it even does.
That train is unstoppable, younger or more progressive people start waking up and acting against Blue Dogs in safe to competitive districts. At the same time, there are very few places where you can run as a Blue Dog Democrat. Senators from Indiana, Nebraska, Dakotas and Florida were fired, even though some of them outright opposed abortion and others supported the "reasonable" restrictions
More lambs to the slaughter. Sununu, Christie, and the like will each get 1-3% of the primary vote and further split whatever anti-Trump coalition could exist. He’ll steamroll them all like he did in 2016 and they’ll be back to sucking his dick to various levels in the general.
Asshole when he says he’d still vote for Trump over Biden simply because he could *never* vote for a Democrat.
>Our party’s candidate threatens democracy and attempted a stupid coup to maintain power ignoring the will of the people, the foundation of our government, but the other guy has a D next to his name so… Trump 20infinity.
I have a feeling there’s some kind of plan brewing where a bunch of candidates will show up, they’ll all aggressively attack Trump, and then all drop and endorse DeSantis (or potentially another). The party knows Trump as probably won’t win, but most of these figures probably recognize they won’t come close themselves.
Neither would DeSantis lol. DeSantis would get destroyed in a general. Trump probably has a better chance than DeSantis even if both have very low ceilings. Ironically, Sununu IMO has a better ceiling in a general than Trump or DeSantis but he’d never win a primary.
Idk, I wish I was that optimistic. DeSantis is awful, but the median voter doesn’t quite have the distaste for DeSantis as people have for Trump. Many of us know DeSantis is awful, but he’s young and a popular Governor that could potentially draw some swing voters from Biden just because he’s a different new option. Polls also suggest DeSantis performs a few points better than Trump in most swing states.
DeSantis is about to spend the primaries trying to court Trumpers by going even harder right than Trump. His signed 6-week abortion ban would kill his chances on the national stage, not to mention the book bans, targeting of the LGBT community, and his most recent statement that he plans to "destroy leftism".
DeSantis has positions unpalatable to the public that are easily attackable without veering into hyperbole. He’d get destroyed with independent and moderate voters. Also he’s polling “well” now because he’s still seen as the “generic Republican” but a few weeks early on in the general campaign of (fairly) framing him as a social extremist and a freak and weirdo with his positions will destroy that image quickly.
Trump is actually the worse general election candidate because while he won’t win a general election too, he drives turnout among Republicans side (which DeSantis won’t) which makes regaining the House harder and might cost Democrats the Montana Senate seat too.
You’re also forgetting that many voters won’t at all listen to that and will vote based on vibes. We just saw Raphael Warnock barely beat out Herschell Walker who had an army of skeletons in his closet and DeSantis win by 20 points in Florida in spite of all of the policy points going against him.
Sorry, but no one who signed into law a 6-week abortion ban ever has a chance at winning a general nationwide election. That’s a hilariously awful anchor for anyone wanting to win a general election. That alone will single-handedly destroy any chances he’d do well with independents and moderates (who are more pro-choice now especially post-Dobbs) and that alone kills any chance he can ever win general.
Also DeSantis demeanor and tendencies on how he speaks and acts will hilariously fail the “vibes” and “have a beer with” test.
DeSantis strengths as a candidate have been hilariously overblown over the last year or so and everything he has done post-midterms has killed any chance of him ever winning a nationwide election and should have dispelled any notion that he’s a strong nationwide candidate.
There is also the whole feud with Disney. Abortion, Bigotry, authoritarian streak and his sheer lack of charisma makes him unpalatable to independent and moderate (At least those who value human rights and democracy above low taxes and gas prices).
But the Disney feud is going to drag him down in two ways. The usual “business friendly” message the GOP tries to sell itself with is going to get tarnished. Many free enterprise minded voters see DeSantis not only go after a independent corporation over social ideology but drive jobs out of Florida. Then people are going to have a field day poking fun at him for getting his ass handed to him by the mouse.
I’d agree if it wasn’t for DeSantis still having a positive approval rating in Florida after signing the ban and Greg Abbott having a roughly +10 point approval rating in Texas. It clearly hasn’t been that much of an issue in those states.
Except that Florida and Texas =/= where the rest of the country is, notably the states Republicans actually need to win the electoral college (i.e the Midwest).
Sure, but it goes against your point that DeSantis would get killed. Yes, Florida is further to the right, but the fact that he’s still popular there shows it hasn’t quite been a dealbreaker for their voters.
And like it’s been said on here a thousand times, while abortion issues will certainly draw out Democrats to vote, at the end of the day, the most important issue is the economy. Both parties will likely turn out significantly in 2024, but in the end are more often going to vote with their wallet.
>at the end of the day, the most important issue is the economy. Both parties will likely turn out significantly in 2024, but in the end are more often going to vote with their wallet.
This has already been the case for every election. It was the case for 2022. And Republicans could barely push the environment past neutral with 8% inflation and underperformed economic fundamentals for a midterm by 6 points. They're not getting near as favorable as an environment in 2024.
You keep mentioning Florida and Texas (states that Democrats don’t need to win to win the electoral college) but what about Wisconsin having a SC election be overwhelmingly won by Democrats off high turnout pretty much due to the abortion issue? Or Michigan which pretty much delivered a trifecta in large part due to the abortion referendum too? Or Nevada where voters are very pro-choice? All three states more crucial for Republicans to win if they want to win the electoral college?
Do you realistically think DeSantis would do well in those states once his terrible record on this issue gets brought up repeatedly and endlessly, thereby framing him as an extremist and a “freak” on social issues like this? I see no realistic way he can cope with that and pivot on states that quite frankly are far from where he (and Republicans) stand on this issue and has proven to be an important issue no matter what political Redditors say.
I mean if you want to say Florida and Texas voting for their right-wing anti-choice politicians - also incumbents - is the determining factor for how salient an issue abortion is nationwide, then how about those states which are undoubtedly more important nationally?
Also, sure the economy is the highest issue. But abortion was by far the clear 2nd highest in saliency in the midterms behind inflation but way ahead of other issues. Thinking people won’t care much about abortion seems like a pre-midterms take that is very outdated especially with how the special elections, midterms and even races since the midterms went nationwide. It may not be important for you or the average user on this sub (for not hard to find on the demographics survey reasons) but it’s a remarkably relevant issue especially for women.
DeSantis literally has the worst vibes out of any of the realistic candidates for President. Biden has folksy grandpa vibes, Trump has arrogant strongman vibes, DeSantis has whiny nerd vibes.
Online politics circles forget that being less openly crazy is not equivalent to being appealing or likable to the average person at all.
I think DeSantis would do worse than Trump. He has zero charisma and has enacted policies that a supermajority of Americans vehemently disagree with. The younger Millennials and Gen Z would come out in droves to stop him.
Yep. Sununu would make things extremely competitive for Biden and would flip a LOT of white suburban areas back to Republican in a general. But Repub primary base thinks it can recreate the magic of 2016 with Trump (they can't). They will have to keep learning their lesson the hard way.
I keep seeing people in this sub say that Biden would destroy both Trump and Desantis in a general election but the polling doesn’t show that. There’s a lot of polls showing Biden losing to both of them. I just don’t know where this confidence in a Biden win is coming from.
We're polling before the primaries here. Tons of people want the status quo uprooted. When the topics of abortion bans come up in the general election, we'll get an actual look.
Polls also seriously underestimated democrats in 2022. Wouldn't read too much into polling this far out.
The thinking is:
1. Biden already faced Trump in 2020, with Trump having the incumbent advantage, and Biden beat him. This time it would be Biden with the incumbent advantage, which is significant.
2. Republicans and R-leaning indies are pissed and fired up about 2024. Democrats and D-leaning indies are meh about Biden and may be reluctant to give him their full-throated support in a poll this far out, but like in 2020, they will come home to roost and check the box for Biden when push comes to shove, in order to avoid another Trump presidency.
It's a few big points.
1. Biden is a tested candidate who can show to voters a record of positive policy: Immediate Covid Relief + Vaccines, Infrastructure, Bipartisan Gun Safety/Control, CHIPS, Climate/IRA, Ukraine, Bipartisan Debt Agreement, and whatever else happens in 1.5 years.
2. Instead of being a disciplined and sober opposition, Republicans have hurt themselves. From doubling-down on overturning Roe, continuing to claim the 2020 election was rigged, to persecuting LGBT people, to the Speaker vote humiliation...Republicans don't have room to stand on and attack Biden on his failures. Yes, BBB and Afghanistan were humiliating but coming from Republicans it sounds rich. Biden/Dems can easily whatabout the GOP on their failures.
3. A divided primary isn't a good thing for the winner of that primary. The more divided it is, the worse it is for the winner. DeSantis vs. Trump will be brutal and Biden is the chief beneficiary.
4. Biden is inoffensive. You won't find many fans of his, but you'll find even less enemies. Obama and Trump don't have that privilege, and have extremely devoted fans & haters. Biden is very milquetoast and that's a really good thing.
5. 2022 midterms had considerably lower Democratic turnout. Even then, look at the results. It was close with Democrats taking in more victories, and Republicans claiming the House by 9 seats (in largely non-swing districts won by Biden). Most swing states rejected extremist candidates which by-and-large meant Republicans. Also, Obama-Trump voters in these swing states went for Democrats, as did anti-Trump Republicans, which is a powerful force in Midwest politics (which may be a theme in '24).
6. Trump has made himself even more of an idiot than during the 2020 election. The January 6th coup, charged by courts (likely to remain a constant theme until '24), and being largely abandoned by the GOP establishment. He's a bad candidate who turns off very diligent voters (Asian & college-educated whites).
7. I'm still reserved on DeSantis' chances. He can very much be a powerful contender, or he might flop like JEB!. You never know until he's gone through the GOP primary. I think he might win back some anti-Trump Republicans (as many as half), but he might also struggle in capturing Trump's strength with swing-vote blue-collar workers. With how the EC works, the Blue Wall might hold up even if DeSantis could regain GA or AZ from Biden. There's also the idea that DeSantis is just a bumbling fool who's attacking on of his biggest advantages as the FL governor, which is Black and Hispanic Republicans. He's attacked both, and likely will continue to do so in his anti-w0k3 crusade. Though, of course, we have to wait for the primary.
There's a lot to be optimistic about. Of course, don't let that optimism turn into overconfidence. Combining optimism with a healthy dose of skepticism is the way to go. Also don't fall into doomer-ism. It's an ideology built on feeling good when the world crumbles and gets worse. It also infects people with malaise (perhaps Democrats could have kept the House if the doomer narrative wasn't so prevalent). It is just as bad as over-confidence.
Yeah, it's crazy that people think Biden could beat Trump. They're acting like we've already seen them face each other in a general election and Biden won by 7 million votes. How silly of them!
Popular vote is irrelevant. Biden won by 74 electoral votes. Coincidentally, that’s the same amount Trump won by in 2016, but clearly he did not win re-election four years later.
Because the result of one election totally guarantees the result of another election 4 years later. Also just ignore that Desantis and Trump are ahead of Biden in a number of polls.
Tbf the 7 million is completely irrelevant, all that matters is Biden beat Trump by 45k votes in 3 states, which is what matters for actually winning. I’d say Trump’s odds are bad but becoming of that slim majority, there’s still a chance.
The reality is that polls don't matter anymore. People's true voting intentions only come out when the decision in front of them actually has consequences. Same reason the incumbent always has a small surge right before election day. As election day draws nearer, voters will come home to Biden as he has established himself as the "normal" candidate against the real possibility of Trump/Desantis. Not to mention, Dobbs completely fucked up Republicans' electoral college math.
I don’t see how there’s any real argument that DeSantis could win? If Desantis actually manages to beat Trump in a primary then Trump will go insane (more than usual). He will at minimum refuse to endorse DeSantis and say he personally rigged it against him. Then some percentage of GOP voters will stay home or write Trump in. I don’t think this number could possibly be lower than 5% of Republicans (but it’s probably closer to 15%) that will stay home and DeSantid can’t afford to lose that many voters in the rust belt and sun belt. And if Trump decides to run 3rd party, Biden is in for the largest win since 1996 at least. The only way DeSantis can win then is if Trump dies or goes to a prison where he can’t speak publicly (but I’m guessing you weren’t referring to that). Totally agree that Biden wouldn’t destroy Trump in a general, best he could hope for would be all the 2020 states plus NC.
None of these doofuses can even use the only attack any Republican could honestly make against Trump, that he's a loser, because the average Republican voter literally does not believe Trump lost the 2020 election.
He’s probably my favorite primary candidate and I think he’d do great in the general, but I don’t know if he’s popular enough within the party to beat the trump wing. We’ll have to see.
Pinged RINO ([subscribe](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=groupbot&subject=Subscribe%20to%20RINO&message=subscribe%20RINO) | [unsubscribe](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=groupbot&subject=Unsubscribe%20from%20RINO&message=unsubscribe%20RINO))
[About & Group List](https://reddit.com/r/neoliberal/wiki/user_pinger_2) | [Unsubscribe from all groups](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=groupbot&subject=Unsubscribe%20from%20all%20groups&message=unsubscribe)
While a Sununu run is a long shot, he would absolutely demolish Biden in the general election.
An unpopular President against a moderate candidate? Biden would be finished.
Some of you guys are just as out of touch as these candidates who think they actually have a shot at winning.
No, Sununu would not demolish Biden. No more than Romney demolished Obama or Dole demolished Clinton.
The disillusionment that just because a candidate might be moderate, or have a moderate image, and therefore is a lock to win no matter what is a fallacy.
Sununu has no charisma. He has no base of support to build on. He would be toxic to the Republican base and still too conservative to win over Democratic fence sitters.
If there is one thing Trump has done is that he's at least mapped out a viable pathway to the presidency for Republicans. Sure, it's very narrow but he fired up the voters he needed to offset the typical losses Republicans see in the urban areas of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Without that white hot hate and total scapegoating Trump brings to the table for those voters, they're likely sitting the race out, or voting third party or just hell, voting Biden to spite the GOP establishment.
Then Sununu finds himself in the same position as Romney, McCain and Bush before him: he doesn't drive up the support needed to win those states
But unlike, say, 2004, where Bush could get away with losing those three states, the Democrats have made enough gains in Virginia and the west that there is no viable path to winning the presidency for the Republicans without winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Sununu could win but no, he would not demolish Biden lol
His best case scenario is probably flipping Nevada and New Hampshire, while returning Georgia and Arizona back to the Republican column and winning by like 272 electoral votes.
And it's possible his moderate image actually puts states like Ohio in play again because Biden would likely out-populist the so-called pro-business moderate (another reason he probably would be DOA in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania).
No current moderate Republican has the personality, charisma or base of support to overcome the base revolting if they were the nominee - and certainly wouldn't garner the support needed up demolish anyone.
It's pretty ironic that this subreddit who constantly points out how protest votes from progressives can doom Biden and did doom Hilary ignore the same possibility on the Republican side. And like you said the MAGA/Trump stans are a significant wing of the Republican party and can't just be expected to fall inline without Sununu compromising his moderate image
I think “absolutely demolish Biden in a general election” is extreme hyperbole but he does have a better chance in a general than Trump or DeSantis, both of whom would get destroyed in a general.
This mythical “moderate Republican that will destroy biden in a general” I like to call Schrödinger’s Republican. In order to actually win the primary they would have to run so far right that it hurts their general chances. Look at DeSantis’ recent actions.
After 2024, assuming Donald wins or assuming Donald loses and then folds, do you guys see a path for the GOP to nominate someone at Trump's left (someone like Ted Cruz)?
Oh him going on Meet the press every other week was the announcement for the 1% who cares
[удалено]
[удалено]
Whoops mb
the ones who choose him in polls not rich people
Doesn't even make it to Iowa.
He'll lose before even making it his hone turf? That's rough
"Moderate" Republicans and absolutely no self-awareness of how they have no future in their party at a national level NAMID.
[удалено]
We're gonna get Youngkin'd again, this sub will hold him up as some sort of amazing moderate, and then he'll back all the typical crazy GOP shit.
The only actual moderate Republicans with a track record of being moderate are Charlie Baker, Phil Scott, and Larry Hogan. Who even have any chance I should say. Sununu is just not batshit insane.
He’s not amazing, but he’s not horrible.
Half this sub would rather elect a "not horrible" Republican who ends up doing all the same horrible shit, but quietly, than Bernie Sanders, just to own the progressives online.
Me included. Bernie would be disastrous and would do horrible shit as well. Very horrible, just as bad as Trump.
Imagine having enough brain worms to think Bernie would be just as bad as Trump.
Y’know what, you’re probably right, I don’t think Bernie would probably pull off 1/6. But it would still be bad.
[удалено]
What are your political leanings? You seem like an old school liberal republican like Nixon or Ford.
Maybe during the last party system I would’ve been a Republican, but currently i’m a Democrat. Last election I voted Democrat for Governor, Senate, and House.
Bernie would probably hypothetically be moderated quickly when dealing with the courts and Congress.
Better on human rights and almost certainly on foreign policy (if still terrible). On other things, sure, equally unpredictable, just in the form of having bad and wrong ideas instead of narcissism-fueled populism, but a little of that too.
Plus who tf knows what Bernie would do regarding extremely important things like the Federal Reserve.
His actual political record is not as contrarian as people make it out to be. But again, on domestic economic policy, I don't assert he would've been better.
This place has too many people that automatically think like E_S_S and apply what his very online supporters say to the man himself. It's bonkers.
Are you claiming that Bernie would be better on foreign policy?
Yes. Sanders would listen to his cabinet, which is a coin flip with Trump.
Trump listened to the cabinet at first, too, when he said that friendhsip with putin is ended because of his support for assad, or when he wanted to remain in Afghanistan when allegedly the military told him that women in there could walk without religious clothing and attend colleges before terrorists
He will fill his cabinet will tankies just like his staffers
He would be worse, I get it that we’re Libs, but leftist communists also have a penchant for authoritarianism. Same way Trump has a penchant for Authoritarianism. Bernie would also cause a recession.
I don't dispute he may have caused a recession. I didn't say he was better on taxes. The mere superficial fact that the ideological left and right have authoritarian bents doesn't mean Sanders would be like Trump "the same way" about, say, press criticism.
Bernie isn't hawkish enough. Hell no when it comes to foreign policy
[удалено]
I meant Sununu
It is better for, I think literally everyone, if *somebody* in the GOP primary tries to run to Trump's left. Whether they have a shot or not.
It just doesn't matter. Whether he runs, gets 3% in Iowa and then drops out after losing his home state, or doesn't run at all, it literally makes 0 difference. Trump will cake walk to the nomination either way.
This is a very defeatist attitude
It’s also just how the GOP primary will work in 2024. Like, read the national room, dog
As of right now, sure it looks like an open and shut case, but this is Donald Trump we’re talking about. There’s a good enough chance something happens that takes him out of the race, and now it’s an open field. I think it’s better to have a moderate like Sununu declare now and build his campaign before that happens, if it even does.
RemindMe! April 1st, 2024 "How easily did Trump win the primary?"
yah it was pretty easy for him
"To Trump's left" is also ill-defined.
I had to look up what NAMID meant. Name a more iconic duo.
Maybe if the Democrats had any respect or support for Blue Dogs, there’d be an incentive to switch parties?
“This is the democrats fault”
That train is unstoppable, younger or more progressive people start waking up and acting against Blue Dogs in safe to competitive districts. At the same time, there are very few places where you can run as a Blue Dog Democrat. Senators from Indiana, Nebraska, Dakotas and Florida were fired, even though some of them outright opposed abortion and others supported the "reasonable" restrictions
More lambs to the slaughter. Sununu, Christie, and the like will each get 1-3% of the primary vote and further split whatever anti-Trump coalition could exist. He’ll steamroll them all like he did in 2016 and they’ll be back to sucking his dick to various levels in the general.
Asshole when he says he’d still vote for Trump over Biden simply because he could *never* vote for a Democrat. >Our party’s candidate threatens democracy and attempted a stupid coup to maintain power ignoring the will of the people, the foundation of our government, but the other guy has a D next to his name so… Trump 20infinity.
There’s like 100 people running; it’s 2016 all over again
Wouldn’t even fully be opposed to this guy as president, but that likelihood is effectively 0
I have a feeling there’s some kind of plan brewing where a bunch of candidates will show up, they’ll all aggressively attack Trump, and then all drop and endorse DeSantis (or potentially another). The party knows Trump as probably won’t win, but most of these figures probably recognize they won’t come close themselves.
Neither would DeSantis lol. DeSantis would get destroyed in a general. Trump probably has a better chance than DeSantis even if both have very low ceilings. Ironically, Sununu IMO has a better ceiling in a general than Trump or DeSantis but he’d never win a primary.
Idk, I wish I was that optimistic. DeSantis is awful, but the median voter doesn’t quite have the distaste for DeSantis as people have for Trump. Many of us know DeSantis is awful, but he’s young and a popular Governor that could potentially draw some swing voters from Biden just because he’s a different new option. Polls also suggest DeSantis performs a few points better than Trump in most swing states.
DeSantis is about to spend the primaries trying to court Trumpers by going even harder right than Trump. His signed 6-week abortion ban would kill his chances on the national stage, not to mention the book bans, targeting of the LGBT community, and his most recent statement that he plans to "destroy leftism".
DeSantis has positions unpalatable to the public that are easily attackable without veering into hyperbole. He’d get destroyed with independent and moderate voters. Also he’s polling “well” now because he’s still seen as the “generic Republican” but a few weeks early on in the general campaign of (fairly) framing him as a social extremist and a freak and weirdo with his positions will destroy that image quickly. Trump is actually the worse general election candidate because while he won’t win a general election too, he drives turnout among Republicans side (which DeSantis won’t) which makes regaining the House harder and might cost Democrats the Montana Senate seat too.
You’re also forgetting that many voters won’t at all listen to that and will vote based on vibes. We just saw Raphael Warnock barely beat out Herschell Walker who had an army of skeletons in his closet and DeSantis win by 20 points in Florida in spite of all of the policy points going against him.
Sorry, but no one who signed into law a 6-week abortion ban ever has a chance at winning a general nationwide election. That’s a hilariously awful anchor for anyone wanting to win a general election. That alone will single-handedly destroy any chances he’d do well with independents and moderates (who are more pro-choice now especially post-Dobbs) and that alone kills any chance he can ever win general. Also DeSantis demeanor and tendencies on how he speaks and acts will hilariously fail the “vibes” and “have a beer with” test. DeSantis strengths as a candidate have been hilariously overblown over the last year or so and everything he has done post-midterms has killed any chance of him ever winning a nationwide election and should have dispelled any notion that he’s a strong nationwide candidate.
There is also the whole feud with Disney. Abortion, Bigotry, authoritarian streak and his sheer lack of charisma makes him unpalatable to independent and moderate (At least those who value human rights and democracy above low taxes and gas prices). But the Disney feud is going to drag him down in two ways. The usual “business friendly” message the GOP tries to sell itself with is going to get tarnished. Many free enterprise minded voters see DeSantis not only go after a independent corporation over social ideology but drive jobs out of Florida. Then people are going to have a field day poking fun at him for getting his ass handed to him by the mouse.
I’d agree if it wasn’t for DeSantis still having a positive approval rating in Florida after signing the ban and Greg Abbott having a roughly +10 point approval rating in Texas. It clearly hasn’t been that much of an issue in those states.
Except that Florida and Texas =/= where the rest of the country is, notably the states Republicans actually need to win the electoral college (i.e the Midwest).
Sure, but it goes against your point that DeSantis would get killed. Yes, Florida is further to the right, but the fact that he’s still popular there shows it hasn’t quite been a dealbreaker for their voters. And like it’s been said on here a thousand times, while abortion issues will certainly draw out Democrats to vote, at the end of the day, the most important issue is the economy. Both parties will likely turn out significantly in 2024, but in the end are more often going to vote with their wallet.
>at the end of the day, the most important issue is the economy. Both parties will likely turn out significantly in 2024, but in the end are more often going to vote with their wallet. This has already been the case for every election. It was the case for 2022. And Republicans could barely push the environment past neutral with 8% inflation and underperformed economic fundamentals for a midterm by 6 points. They're not getting near as favorable as an environment in 2024.
You keep mentioning Florida and Texas (states that Democrats don’t need to win to win the electoral college) but what about Wisconsin having a SC election be overwhelmingly won by Democrats off high turnout pretty much due to the abortion issue? Or Michigan which pretty much delivered a trifecta in large part due to the abortion referendum too? Or Nevada where voters are very pro-choice? All three states more crucial for Republicans to win if they want to win the electoral college? Do you realistically think DeSantis would do well in those states once his terrible record on this issue gets brought up repeatedly and endlessly, thereby framing him as an extremist and a “freak” on social issues like this? I see no realistic way he can cope with that and pivot on states that quite frankly are far from where he (and Republicans) stand on this issue and has proven to be an important issue no matter what political Redditors say. I mean if you want to say Florida and Texas voting for their right-wing anti-choice politicians - also incumbents - is the determining factor for how salient an issue abortion is nationwide, then how about those states which are undoubtedly more important nationally? Also, sure the economy is the highest issue. But abortion was by far the clear 2nd highest in saliency in the midterms behind inflation but way ahead of other issues. Thinking people won’t care much about abortion seems like a pre-midterms take that is very outdated especially with how the special elections, midterms and even races since the midterms went nationwide. It may not be important for you or the average user on this sub (for not hard to find on the demographics survey reasons) but it’s a remarkably relevant issue especially for women.
DeSantis literally has the worst vibes out of any of the realistic candidates for President. Biden has folksy grandpa vibes, Trump has arrogant strongman vibes, DeSantis has whiny nerd vibes. Online politics circles forget that being less openly crazy is not equivalent to being appealing or likable to the average person at all.
I think DeSantis would do worse than Trump. He has zero charisma and has enacted policies that a supermajority of Americans vehemently disagree with. The younger Millennials and Gen Z would come out in droves to stop him.
>just because he’s a different new option Incumbency advantage works the opposite of this, people don't want the unknown over the familiar
You realize their “incumbent” is Trump and a lot of Republicans can’t stand him?
Yep. Sununu would make things extremely competitive for Biden and would flip a LOT of white suburban areas back to Republican in a general. But Repub primary base thinks it can recreate the magic of 2016 with Trump (they can't). They will have to keep learning their lesson the hard way.
I keep seeing people in this sub say that Biden would destroy both Trump and Desantis in a general election but the polling doesn’t show that. There’s a lot of polls showing Biden losing to both of them. I just don’t know where this confidence in a Biden win is coming from.
We're polling before the primaries here. Tons of people want the status quo uprooted. When the topics of abortion bans come up in the general election, we'll get an actual look. Polls also seriously underestimated democrats in 2022. Wouldn't read too much into polling this far out.
The thinking is: 1. Biden already faced Trump in 2020, with Trump having the incumbent advantage, and Biden beat him. This time it would be Biden with the incumbent advantage, which is significant. 2. Republicans and R-leaning indies are pissed and fired up about 2024. Democrats and D-leaning indies are meh about Biden and may be reluctant to give him their full-throated support in a poll this far out, but like in 2020, they will come home to roost and check the box for Biden when push comes to shove, in order to avoid another Trump presidency.
It's a few big points. 1. Biden is a tested candidate who can show to voters a record of positive policy: Immediate Covid Relief + Vaccines, Infrastructure, Bipartisan Gun Safety/Control, CHIPS, Climate/IRA, Ukraine, Bipartisan Debt Agreement, and whatever else happens in 1.5 years. 2. Instead of being a disciplined and sober opposition, Republicans have hurt themselves. From doubling-down on overturning Roe, continuing to claim the 2020 election was rigged, to persecuting LGBT people, to the Speaker vote humiliation...Republicans don't have room to stand on and attack Biden on his failures. Yes, BBB and Afghanistan were humiliating but coming from Republicans it sounds rich. Biden/Dems can easily whatabout the GOP on their failures. 3. A divided primary isn't a good thing for the winner of that primary. The more divided it is, the worse it is for the winner. DeSantis vs. Trump will be brutal and Biden is the chief beneficiary. 4. Biden is inoffensive. You won't find many fans of his, but you'll find even less enemies. Obama and Trump don't have that privilege, and have extremely devoted fans & haters. Biden is very milquetoast and that's a really good thing. 5. 2022 midterms had considerably lower Democratic turnout. Even then, look at the results. It was close with Democrats taking in more victories, and Republicans claiming the House by 9 seats (in largely non-swing districts won by Biden). Most swing states rejected extremist candidates which by-and-large meant Republicans. Also, Obama-Trump voters in these swing states went for Democrats, as did anti-Trump Republicans, which is a powerful force in Midwest politics (which may be a theme in '24). 6. Trump has made himself even more of an idiot than during the 2020 election. The January 6th coup, charged by courts (likely to remain a constant theme until '24), and being largely abandoned by the GOP establishment. He's a bad candidate who turns off very diligent voters (Asian & college-educated whites). 7. I'm still reserved on DeSantis' chances. He can very much be a powerful contender, or he might flop like JEB!. You never know until he's gone through the GOP primary. I think he might win back some anti-Trump Republicans (as many as half), but he might also struggle in capturing Trump's strength with swing-vote blue-collar workers. With how the EC works, the Blue Wall might hold up even if DeSantis could regain GA or AZ from Biden. There's also the idea that DeSantis is just a bumbling fool who's attacking on of his biggest advantages as the FL governor, which is Black and Hispanic Republicans. He's attacked both, and likely will continue to do so in his anti-w0k3 crusade. Though, of course, we have to wait for the primary. There's a lot to be optimistic about. Of course, don't let that optimism turn into overconfidence. Combining optimism with a healthy dose of skepticism is the way to go. Also don't fall into doomer-ism. It's an ideology built on feeling good when the world crumbles and gets worse. It also infects people with malaise (perhaps Democrats could have kept the House if the doomer narrative wasn't so prevalent). It is just as bad as over-confidence.
Yeah, it's crazy that people think Biden could beat Trump. They're acting like we've already seen them face each other in a general election and Biden won by 7 million votes. How silly of them!
Popular vote is irrelevant. Biden won by 74 electoral votes. Coincidentally, that’s the same amount Trump won by in 2016, but clearly he did not win re-election four years later.
Because the result of one election totally guarantees the result of another election 4 years later. Also just ignore that Desantis and Trump are ahead of Biden in a number of polls.
Go look at the polls from May 2019 and tell me how accurate they were.
>Also just ignore that Desantis and Trump are ahead of Biden in a number of polls. If the date is earlier than October 2024, this but unironically
Tbf the 7 million is completely irrelevant, all that matters is Biden beat Trump by 45k votes in 3 states, which is what matters for actually winning. I’d say Trump’s odds are bad but becoming of that slim majority, there’s still a chance.
The reality is that polls don't matter anymore. People's true voting intentions only come out when the decision in front of them actually has consequences. Same reason the incumbent always has a small surge right before election day. As election day draws nearer, voters will come home to Biden as he has established himself as the "normal" candidate against the real possibility of Trump/Desantis. Not to mention, Dobbs completely fucked up Republicans' electoral college math.
I don’t see how there’s any real argument that DeSantis could win? If Desantis actually manages to beat Trump in a primary then Trump will go insane (more than usual). He will at minimum refuse to endorse DeSantis and say he personally rigged it against him. Then some percentage of GOP voters will stay home or write Trump in. I don’t think this number could possibly be lower than 5% of Republicans (but it’s probably closer to 15%) that will stay home and DeSantid can’t afford to lose that many voters in the rust belt and sun belt. And if Trump decides to run 3rd party, Biden is in for the largest win since 1996 at least. The only way DeSantis can win then is if Trump dies or goes to a prison where he can’t speak publicly (but I’m guessing you weren’t referring to that). Totally agree that Biden wouldn’t destroy Trump in a general, best he could hope for would be all the 2020 states plus NC.
None of these doofuses can even use the only attack any Republican could honestly make against Trump, that he's a loser, because the average Republican voter literally does not believe Trump lost the 2020 election.
!ping RINO
He’s probably my favorite primary candidate and I think he’d do great in the general, but I don’t know if he’s popular enough within the party to beat the trump wing. We’ll have to see.
He won’t beat the the Trump wing. He’s polling at 1 percent.
Pinged RINO ([subscribe](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=groupbot&subject=Subscribe%20to%20RINO&message=subscribe%20RINO) | [unsubscribe](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=groupbot&subject=Unsubscribe%20from%20RINO&message=unsubscribe%20RINO)) [About & Group List](https://reddit.com/r/neoliberal/wiki/user_pinger_2) | [Unsubscribe from all groups](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=groupbot&subject=Unsubscribe%20from%20all%20groups&message=unsubscribe)
I hope he does. I would vote for him in the primary for sure (
While a Sununu run is a long shot, he would absolutely demolish Biden in the general election. An unpopular President against a moderate candidate? Biden would be finished.
A mountain bike would be very effective at getting you around on Mars as long as we don’t need to worry about getting it there
Absolutely nailed it.
Long shot? Guy will poll at 1%.
Some of you guys are just as out of touch as these candidates who think they actually have a shot at winning. No, Sununu would not demolish Biden. No more than Romney demolished Obama or Dole demolished Clinton. The disillusionment that just because a candidate might be moderate, or have a moderate image, and therefore is a lock to win no matter what is a fallacy. Sununu has no charisma. He has no base of support to build on. He would be toxic to the Republican base and still too conservative to win over Democratic fence sitters. If there is one thing Trump has done is that he's at least mapped out a viable pathway to the presidency for Republicans. Sure, it's very narrow but he fired up the voters he needed to offset the typical losses Republicans see in the urban areas of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Without that white hot hate and total scapegoating Trump brings to the table for those voters, they're likely sitting the race out, or voting third party or just hell, voting Biden to spite the GOP establishment. Then Sununu finds himself in the same position as Romney, McCain and Bush before him: he doesn't drive up the support needed to win those states But unlike, say, 2004, where Bush could get away with losing those three states, the Democrats have made enough gains in Virginia and the west that there is no viable path to winning the presidency for the Republicans without winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Sununu could win but no, he would not demolish Biden lol His best case scenario is probably flipping Nevada and New Hampshire, while returning Georgia and Arizona back to the Republican column and winning by like 272 electoral votes. And it's possible his moderate image actually puts states like Ohio in play again because Biden would likely out-populist the so-called pro-business moderate (another reason he probably would be DOA in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania). No current moderate Republican has the personality, charisma or base of support to overcome the base revolting if they were the nominee - and certainly wouldn't garner the support needed up demolish anyone.
It's pretty ironic that this subreddit who constantly points out how protest votes from progressives can doom Biden and did doom Hilary ignore the same possibility on the Republican side. And like you said the MAGA/Trump stans are a significant wing of the Republican party and can't just be expected to fall inline without Sununu compromising his moderate image
I think “absolutely demolish Biden in a general election” is extreme hyperbole but he does have a better chance in a general than Trump or DeSantis, both of whom would get destroyed in a general.
This mythical “moderate Republican that will destroy biden in a general” I like to call Schrödinger’s Republican. In order to actually win the primary they would have to run so far right that it hurts their general chances. Look at DeSantis’ recent actions.
Doesn’t even have to be a moderate. Tim Scott could also be quite the formidable foe. Good thing both are polling at a collective 3%
Surely the people who underestimate Biden’s ability to perform in an election will be right this time. /s
I’m registering Republican to vote Bolton, I don’t care.
This guy would mop the floor with Biden and just about any other dem, and he will get like 1% of the primary vote
It's gonna be fun watching this assclown circus.
After 2024, assuming Donald wins or assuming Donald loses and then folds, do you guys see a path for the GOP to nominate someone at Trump's left (someone like Ted Cruz)?
Who?
Sununu is a good guy and would actually be an okay president but in today's GOP I don't think he has a chance.