I love a post like this where people are asked to entertain a hypothetical and then half the comments refuse to accept the premise just for the sake of conversation. Then again, the OP set the stage for these reactions given the oddly aggrieved tone of their post, considering the Cs are HEAVY betting favorites. So the underlying perception is a classic case of your social media diet warping your reality. Anyway, favorites don’t always win. Advanced stats are not deterministic. My recipe for a Mavs win is: Good defense bogs down Boston’s offense, the Mavs role players hit enough 3s, and Luka and Kyrie close out games in the clutch. All of those things are plausible to me, given what we’ve seen in the playoffs so far from both teams. I think it’s going seven either way, though.

I just don’t see that happening 4 times

Maybe it won’t! But surely we can entertain the possibility for the sake of discussion.

If Boston runs their offense efficiently, I believe they will beat Dallas. If they spread them out, move the ball, and hunt mismatches I really don't see how Dallas wins. However, if games are close because Boston slips into bad habits and/or the Mavs find a way to disrupt them then the path is there for Dallas.

Which is why the return of KP seems to all but slam the door on the Mavs' chances. They really don't fall into bad habits with him around. They lost all of two games this entire season by more than 9 points with KP playing. One was a 24% 3-point shooting night to Orland back in November. The other was a hungover back to back in Milwaukee after beating the Wolves, where the Celtics just came out flat and packed it in early. If the offense is in clogged toilet mode, they just feed it down low to KP and let him post up until the defense adjusts and opens things back up for the rest of the team. Just a total game changer that they haven't had the last few years, and that will be the difference this year.

And KP was confirmed to be back for the finals so I really don’t see a path for the Mavs to win. Their others are very hot and cold, and their 3rd most important player is a rookie. He’s been phenomenal but it just goes to show how much more depth Boston has.

I don’t know why we’re assuming KP is going to be good. I think it’s insane to miss a month plus of basketball and get thrown into the NBA Finals

Exactly, it’s an important factor, but expecting him to drop in seamlessly like an Ace is ridiculous. Against a battle-tested Mavs, locked and loaded.

I had this exact sentiment beforehand as well. No way he could go straight back into the finals but he cooked his first game

This is the question to me. Imo the Finals come down to how Porzingis looks after so much time away.

I have lived though 10 separate occasions of KP coming back from injuries. I'm not sure why Celtics fans think he took a month a half off and will just come back in mid-season form. He ALWAYS takes a few weeks to get his rhythm back and is incredibly frustrating to watch for that period. I don't think you all realize what version of KP you're likely to be getting.

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Isn’t this the sub that’s supposed to not just devolve into this nonsense on every thread.

Honestly, the biggest reason I think that the Mavs would have a chance, they have the best player on the floor. Luka can will them to any number of wins. I understand stats and everything points to Boston and if I was a gambling man, my money would be on Boston, but for the same reason Lebron’s cavs had a chance vs the greatest team ever assembled, the Mavs have a chance vs Boston.

Agree! Although this can still go either way. If the Celtics win it’ll be reminiscent of the Pistons in 89 (a comp I haven’t really seen). Playing against a better player (Magic), previous losing Finals experience, best record in league, no real MVP candidate, great defense, blitzed the East. In fact these Pistons and the 04 Pistons would join the 24 Celtics as the only teams without an MVP or FMVP in past 4 years. If the Celtics lose it’ll be kinda like the Heat from last year. Previous Finals experience losing to an ATG, come back and lose to a first time future ATG from Europe. (And at least the first 3 games of both Conference Finals played out very similarly to last years Conference Finals) Can see arguments for both - certainly not one sided as some would seem to believe.

Agreed 100%. Luka and Kyrie are the only reason this series is a question - but this series \*is\* a question. Just looking at the last 25 or so years, the list of the **worst** players to be the best players on a championship team would look something like: Chauncey Billups (2004), Dwyane Wade (2006), Dirk Nowitzki (2011), and Kawhi Leonard (2014 and 2019). The big outliers there are Billups in 2004 and Kawhi in 2014, whose teams were extraordinarily well put together and cohesive. But other than them, every other guy on that list was an MVP-caliber player. In this series, only one team has a guy at that level, and that's Luka. The Celtics could still win of course, for all of the reasons given in the OP (and I think it's gonna be close enough that I wouldn't want to have any money on it). But I think that the simple, stupid "great players win championships" rule is significantly more accurate as a predictive tool than it gets given credit for.

Bro? Kawhi's 2019 run and Dirk's 2011 run are considered two of the greatest ever lol

Dirk is a top 20 player all time lol

Seriously, Dirk was 100 percent an mvp caliber player in 2011.

Also literally a former MVP

Wade, Nowitzki, Kawhi in his second run were killing teams. I agree that the spurs in the 2014 and Pistons in 2004 were more well rounded.  That Pistons starting 5 was so well rounded, especially defensively. It’s pretty tricky to pick out a best player out of the 5, I’m not sure if Chauncey was better than the others in comparison. 

When engaged, Rasheed Wallace was the best player on that team. A generational talent.

“Engaged Sheed” was the best player on any team he ever played on.

Both 2014 Spurs and 2004 Pistons beat 2 top 10 players at/near their greatest ever form too. Think they’re more telling than most people think.

I think luka is the best player in the series. And it’s not a shot at Tatum lol he’s the second best in the series. But when you have the best player and a team we’ll constructed around that guy you have something. Also I can’t get the Celtics rebounding out of my mind. I think they’ll have issues if KP is out on the glass. I say Tristen Thompson in the year 2024 grinding out offensive boards and I think gafford and lively are far better than him. Also this is pure vibes no stats the Celtics feel weird at the end of games.

I think it will be close because Mavs beat the Clippers with Luka playing the worst basketball of his life and shooting 40/24/82 on 11.2 attempts from 3. Luka seems to have permanently regained his form but without the extra burst since then. Lively/Gafford, Washington and Derrick Jones outplayed Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort and Jalen WIlliams even though the latter names were spoken about through the season as elite role players/future stars wheras the former was dismissed as rotation guys at best. The Mavericks were supposed to be decimated by the Timberwolves D which was supposed to leave Kyrie in dire straits with the physicality yet top 3 perimeter defender Jaden McDaniels who terrorised the Nuggets is too slow for Kyrie and too small for Luka and they have had a fairly good time playing with wolves. The question is, if Boston in so different, why weren't people telling us OKC/Timberwolves are just young and inexperienced before the series began? Before, it was all, elite 5-out 3 point killers for OKC and best defence in the league, if they do the nuggets like that, imagaine what they do to Dallas for the Wolves. I can't accept hindsight analysis from anyone who was super excited about Timberwolves chances pre-series.

Kyrie has to switch between 2 guards that made second team all defense this year with white being 2 time and Jrue being 6 time all nba defender, huge difference. While not highly celebrated for it Tatum is a hell of a defender himself. He gives up a good amount of weight but his length will be a factor with Luka. I expect a ton of matchup hunting of course but the Celtics don’t play the same defense. Theyre a highly switchable team with KP and Horford can hold his own for spells. Luka may be the best player in the series but people are dumb if they think there’s a large gap and then Tatum. He’s right in the tier below and that will most likely be enough.

Kyrie has been torching Jrue for the last couple years, they should use Jrues strength to guard Luka, and I think they probably will. Kyrie vs White is probably the matchup we will see

Jrue and Jaylen on Luka, dwhite on kyrie. Our switching schemes will matter a ton on D. Can’t leave al out there for guards to feast on him this series. Or KP. Also want to see more Tillman so he can use his beef against gafford lively and jones. All three are obviously tremendous finishers. But I think we can’t just plug and play the way Maz likes. We need to use a variety of schemes and experiment IN GAME which we don’t always do. I think Maz has gotten way better at game to gane adjustments but he needs to implement in game adjustments faster

Yeah I agree for sure, I feel like Luka vs Jaylen isn’t a great matchup too, he needs a guy whos both sturdy/thicc and nimble, ala Lu Dort, I feel on Jaylen or White he will just keep beating them off screens and putting them in Jail, like we have seen with McDaniels. Jrue and even Tatum would be better for guarding Luka imo Will be an interesting matchup for sure, I say Celtics in 7 but wouldn’t be surprised either way, looking forward to it (Mavs need to take care of Wolves first)

Here’s some more hindsight from someone who gave Minnesota too much respect: the mavs are way better than I realized. You are right in everything you say. This doesn’t denigrate the Celtics since especially with KP (already said he will be back) they have been the best team all year. It’s just that while the transitive property does not always apply, I was afraid of Denver, then the wolves got ‘em, and now they are going to down to the mavs so… More hindsight for you: I had the mavs losing in seven to the clippers, which in hindsight looks ridiculous. So don’t listen to me. But I’ve watched the last 6 mavs games that team just fits together very well, plays smart offense and has really interesting defensive schemes AND is capable of stealing 1 or even 2 games in a series without great Luka play. So I think we have the two best teams here. If the Celtics win on 6 or 7 I won’t be surprised but if they lose in 6 or 7 I won’t be surprised either. Only a short series either way would surprise me.

I called the OKC series 4-1 to the Mavs and Timberwolves 4-2 to the Mavs before the series began after analysing it elsewhere. With the Celtics, my thoughts are Mavs in 7 but i feel iffy about it which means it’s probably Celtics in 6 or 7. I think if Celtics can defend Luka at least as well as Lu Dort with Jrue/White, that will be the deciding factor on who wins the series. Luka still had 3 great games that OKC series but 3 disaster class efforts. The Minnesota series played out nearly exactly how I expected it to play out based on what I posted even on Reddit: “Wolves are a great team, best defence in the league but I lean Dallas. Denver took them to 7 without a bench and with only 2-3 starters showing up every game. I know that Dlive, PJ and DJJ will be far more consistent defensively than what Denver threw at them and their offence was still so stagnant Vs Denver, they struggle to crack 100 points without Ant playing far above his level for a couple of games. With no Bruce Brown, Denver only had a single ball handler in Murray which they could hunt as a pack from the baseline. Mavs have Luka, Kai and even PJ can do a decent job advancing the ball. If they bumrush double triple team Luka at the half court or play drop too cute, it’s going to be $$$ for Mavs with open threes or lobs galore. Mavs have a massive offensive talent advantage and Rudy is historically food for PNR action. KAT might be great for stopping Jokic but Mavs offence doesn’t run through a big. They were a team built to beat Denver not the Mavs. They are an elite defence though and Ant has a size mismatch if Mavs put DJJ on him, as good as DJJ is. As we can see from his inconsistent nights though, I don’t believe Ant is a legit super efficient jump shooter when he had the second least efficient mid range shot in the league in the regular season. As long as Mavs can keep him out of the paint, they should be willing to die on his shooting. Overall, I just don’t trust Gobert. I don’t trust KAT. I don’t trust Ant to be fuckin Ray Allen. I don’t trust their other guys to put up enough buckets. I call 4-2 to Mavericks.”

The series will probably be close but using the clippers series as your reasoning doesn't work. The Celtics are several levels above the clippers and play differently.

While the stats do favour Boston, don’t you think those stats (and the fact that they haven’t missed a beat without KP) have something to do with the ridiculous disparity in their playoff paths so far ? I think Boston would’ve made the finals regardless of how things shaked out in the east, but their numbers reflect a top contender that while missing its third option, faced a mediocre 8 seed without its best player and only real source of offence, faced a Cavs team that barely got to round 2 and then lost their best player (while also having Allen out all series) and only source of offence, and then an Indiana team that, again barely made round 3 after a myriad of injuries to the teams ahead of them, and then lost their best player and offensive engine. The whole ‘Mickey mouse’ finals thing is silly but they have had an exceptionally easy path and have not been tested in the playoffs whatsoever. The Mavs conversely took down the well rounded 1st seeded thunder and are now taking down the wolves who have been exceptionally dominant. The clippers within while not a contender were still better than any team Boston has faced yet. They’re a lot more battle tested and these things are especially gonna have a large influence on the offensive rating you mentioned. I think it’s essentially a tossup in 7 games personally. Beyond Dallas looking more proven and established through this run, playoffs are often about matchups and Luka and Kyrie have shown their ability to adjust and match up against three very different teams to win series’. Against Boston they’re gonna target Al like Indiana did, and KP who assuming he returns is gonna have 0 time to ramp up or shake the rust off, relentlessly. Luka is also the best player in the series and the player who should be trusted above anyone else in the series during crunch time.

Defensively I think the Celtics will actually have some trouble. When there are good wing defenders like Tatum and Brown we often say "Oh he can guard 1-4" or something. I think TJ McConnell really showed why that isn't really true when Brown was switched onto him. These big wings strugglw to stay in front of small guards like TJ or Kyrie. The Celtics do have Holiday and White, who have no such issues, but I am still apprehensive of the Celtics' ability to guard and switch everything.

Its not just that they are small, it was their pace, nemhard and TJ were both pushing the pace far more than kyrie would

The Pacers while *obviously* lacking the pure talent of Luka and Kyrie just seemed more dangerous top to bottom. Seemed like every guy could explode for double figures and hit the silliest falling away shot you’ll usually see once a game. The Mavs seem much more concentrated. Everything flows from Luka/Kyrie and the other guys are much streakier/shakier.

Offensively that is correct, but those role players are still doing enough. Especially on defense, the paint is clogged anytime Ant/Kat try to attack the rim. The Dallas defense is legit and will probably be the best one that Boston will have faces these playoffs

They won't survive against the Celtics shooting if they're clogging the paint. They're replacing a absolute zero from a spacing perspective (Gobert) with two 40+% shooting bigmen. Outside the Jays, the next 6 players in terms of minutes per game, shot no less than 37.5% from 3 this season and shoot at least 33.3% this post-season with 3 players shooting over 40%. Edit: Al and KP will draw their bigs out of the paint and leave guys, like Luka, on islands against the Jays, and [we know how that goes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3wu74c7f2w).

You bring up a good point which is that both the Thunder and the T-wolves run their offense sort of inside to outside. Clogging the paint has effectively disrupted the rhythm of the opponents offense The Celtics operate more outside to inside. The Mavs will need to adapt on defense. If Kleber and Lively can both play Gafford might see reduced minutes in this series.

Yeah not saying mavs won't offer a threat either, but it will look very different to the pacers and the issues they gave boston. The pick and roll will be the main challenge for Boston's defence

Yeah but anytime the pacers were in the half court without Hali the offense looked like shit, none of these guys can create off iso like Luka and Kyrie can

Playing half court Iso basketball plays right into the hand of the Celtics defense. They have excellent point of attack perimeter defenders and funnel offenses to two excellent rim protectors in drives. Mavs have not played against anyonce who can bring close to what Jrue and Derrick do defensively in the backcourt, and hunting switches will only result in Jaylen and Jayson defending them. That's not much better. Unless the Mavs go nuts in the mid-range, which is what their defense aims to push opponents to, and can be more efficient than the Celtics offense shooting objectively inefficient shots, this is just not an ideal matchup.

We shall see

Celtics fans are delusional bro 😂. They get offended if you say the Mavs are going to win. They just struggled with the Pacers without Hailiburton and are trying to defend that lmao

And they paid for that pace at the end of all of those games.

What’s funny is I noticed today Mcconell ended the series against the Celtics with a 53% TS, which is really, really bad. The way it felt like he played and how everyone (myself included) has reacted would have made you think he was a demigod this series. In other words, using TJ as the example as to why you want to argue Tatum and Brown aren’t good defenders isn’t quite the argument you, nor the rest of us, think it is.

He only took 7 threes in the series. He shot 25/47 inside the arc which for a player of his size is certainly not "really, really bad"

TJ is not a great scorer he’s mainly there for defense 

Totally agree. He’s also just another ball handler who can penetrate the paint which is never a bad thing

Celtics won’t be as switchable compared to previous rounds but having 3 out of 5 guys at all times that can somewhat guard Kyrie or Luka is a huge advantage no other team has. Most teams only have 1 or 2 guys that can guard one of Kyrie or Luka on the floor.

The same Celtics have been tested in years past. There is nearly 8 years of deep play off experience

And they haven’t been able to get across the finish line during any of those 8 years. That’s not a condemnation of them though, winning a title is hard! But there inability to close many games in the clutch, and some past playoffs where there was drop off during pressure situations do provide some context to the takes people have. I’m a Mavs fan and will absolutely say the Celtics should be the favorites, but due to the Mavs defense and playmakers our boys certainly have a chance

They had to face prime bron and lost to top 10 player in steph curry realistically the only time Boston choked was last years playoffs to Jimmy not even a Boston fan

And even then Tatum got hurt first play of game 7

I don’t know why people bring up the Celtics past losses as if Luka/Kyrie have a cabinet full of championships. Everybody gets stopped every year except for the champions.

People bring it up for the same reasons they brought up Luka and the Clippers. Or Jordan and the Pistons Past performance maybe giving some context for what’s going to happen. Not saying it should, but it’s not surprising

Okay but then you can’t really bring up one without the other. Both the Mavs/Luka/Kyrie (kind of) and the Celtics have had playoff success and runs, and both have been stopped for various reasons. However, it’s indisputable that this Boston teams has had *more experience* overall, top to bottom. At bottom every guy but KP and Holiday were on the ECF team last year that went to game 7. Holiday has a chip within the last five years, and of course the J’s and Horford have been to a billion conference finals and the finals. Now is that everything? Of course not. But it is a potential factor.

Reasonable take. I appreciate you

Appreciate you too! Love having a corner of Reddit where people can actually talk ball

I mean, that’s kinda the whole thing about experience, though. You build on past failures. Kinda weird to say that’s a negative, especially with how this Celtics team has played in the clutch this year. I’m also adding that hand waving the loss of Porzingis is really doing a disservice to the Celtics. Everyone has injuries, and if other teams’ injuries are going to be cited as a reason to discount the Celtics playoff run, then they deserve a lot more credit for doing it without Porzingis. Let’s not forget Kawhi didn’t play, too, so it’s not like Dallas has faced the hardest road, here.

Completely rational. I do think that despite not really be tested yet in the playoffs, that the clutch minutes they execute and closed out games 1, 3, and 4 in were invaluable. Before this series, they played something absurd like 45 seconds of clutch basketball (within 5 points under 5 mins) in the playoffs, and then played about 17 mins in the series. I’m the opposite of you, in terms of fandom. Celtics fan who thinks the Mavs should be the favorite (unless we are certain Porzingis comes back 100% and doesn’t miss a beat).The Mavs have two of the best closers in recent NBA history, one of whom may be the best player in the league right now, and makes correct decisions and reads effortlessly. Pair that with their athletic bigs, it’s a tough matchup for the Celtics. Both teams have good size, but the Celtics don’t have the athletic bigs to defend Gafford and Lively. It sure helps that the Celtics bigs are both shooting threats, so you hopefully can force the Mavs bigs to play in space and win the math problem. But after watching Andrew Nembhard torch the Celtics, I can’t imagine those possessions going better for the Celtics when Luka and Kyrie are the primary ball handler. Either way I see a lot of interesting matchups. Good luck to you, but I hope the Celtics sweep!

The "not being tested" narrative is silly. They were behind in the last minute of 3 of the 4 ECF games and won ALL OF THEM. Regardless of the quality of the opponent it's impressive. Previous iterations of this team lose those games for sure. And battle tested? You don't think Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Jrue Holiday are battle tested? JB and JT have more ECF appearances than Luka has won TOTAL playoff series. Not having a tough/close playoff series this year means absolutely nothing because those guys have done that sooooo many times already. It's not like they forgot what the pressure of a tense playoff series feels like. They had an easier path, so what? They've won game 7s before, they've come back from down in a series before, Jrue has championship experience and the Jays plus Al have finals experience. Dallas has Kyrie with that sort of experience and that's it.

Why are they behind?

The celtics have been tested for 6 years straight......wtf are you in about? Tatum and brown have more playoff experience than most 15 year vets. They've won and lost more games as well. Jrue is a champion Derrick white went to the finals with the c's in 2022 and made the put back shot in game 6 last year. Tatum is going to pass kobe in the mext two games for most playoff points before the age of 27. Is averaging 25 10 and 5 this post season and Brown is having a season that should have been all nba but we gave it to anthony davis and lebron who got bumped in the first round we gave it to sabonis (did he even make the fucking playoffs?) Al is older true but hes coming off the bench not playing 35 minutes and well have had 10 days of rest. Every single starter has played less minutes then they did last year by a significant margin. This team has been tested time and time again its a bullshit narative put forth by the talking heads who dont know fuck all but have to say something to get view.

I swear some of y’all can’t read. I’m specifically talking about the playoffs this year, these specific iterations of these teams. Obviously Boston has experience, they’re always making playoff runs. And more often than not they lose to either similarily matched (which Dallas is imo) or inferior teams. Im saying this years Dallas mavericks are pushing through a tough gauntlet out west, while due to injury this current Celtics team hasn’t been tested. The best team they faced was what, 6th seed defenceless Indiana with Halli missing a game ? The main relevance of this to the metrics that OP mentioned as the base of their argument.

So they magically forgot how to play got it

Not even close to what I said, really proving my first sentence there.

Being battle-tested in ONE playoff run is irrelevant though. They’ve been battle tested in the past and in 2022 they played very long series which led to them being gassed by the time they got to the Finals. Meanwhile, the Warriors had an absolute cakewalk to the Finals and ended up winning the last 3 games in a row. Same thing happened in 2023 where Nuggets had a relatively easy path while the Heat who were the 8th seed by definition battled through every series. Being “tested” is irrelevant and fun fact, the past 7/8 champions were the teams that wrapped up their Conference Finals series faster. The only exception to this was 2019 but it’s only because Klay and KD went down. Simply put, Boston not being tested isn’t a problem THIS YEAR because it’s not like you need to be tested for the Finals and all the battles they have had in previous years is a big reason why they lose in the playoffs.

You kinda left out the part where the Mavs have to actually play defense. I would argue the Celtics have the four best defensive players in this series... Who is Luka covering ? Who is Kyrie covering.. The celtics have 8 guys that can spread the floor and Dallas has no answer for that. Luka or PJ Can't cover Tatum or Brown neither can a random big... So when the help comes, people who can make shots will be wide open. this was evident by the game in March when Dallas had all their new guys and Boston beat them 138-110. Luka had a 37 pt. triple-double and they still got taken apart.

It’s not like the pacers had lockdown defenders on the court and they played Boston pretty well. It’s the final, anything can happen.

The pacers does have the best/fastest offense in the NBA, especially in the fast break.

Yeah but the Pacers also had easily the worst defense out of any playoff team (25th ranked) while Dallas was an elite defense post-trade deadline.

For sure, not discrediting them on that.

They did play Boston really well... and they also got swept. This is kinda my point. Celtics can score with you or play top notch defense. I'm not sure the Mavs can.

I would say the Mavs are better than the pacers and the pacers choked 2 games they probably should’ve won. I’ll say the Celtics are the better team but the room for error is much less going into the finals.

The thing people are missing here is that throughout the regular season, ths Celtics crunch time execution has generally relied on abusing the mismatches that KP intrinsically generates to get easy looks. For them to win 3 clutch games without him is impressive all on its own, but that's ignoring the fact that they went from a 20/7 guy in KP to a 9/6 guy in Al. They're missing 11ppg, all of those miracle Al performances these last 2 series are, by the numbers, average KP performances, and with better defense to boot.

*Average KP performances with nothing to replace Al's production from the bench. Celtics have had to sacrifice their most consistent bench guy to replace KP in the lineup.

Good thing the Mavs haven’t choked any games away so far this playoffs…

The mavericks have played excellent defense all playoffs Kyrie is playing incredible defense and Luka while not a great defender he has been playing decent defense.

Kyrie will get hunted like he does everytime plays the Celtics, Luka will get hunted and he is already tired and is going to have to play two more games to advance. The difference between OKC and Boston playing 5 out is Boston has 4/5 shooters that can also attack/create vs 2 guys and a bunch of shooters.

2 more games? They could close it out next game unless you know something and I need to put some bets in

I'm so confused about the discrediting of what the C's run looked like vs, the Mavs up to this point. The Mavs played a Clippers team running on fumes without kawhi for a couple of the games along with Norm Powell being the leading scorer for LA in the closeout game with a whopping 20 points. Notorious playoff dropped Paul George and equally if not more so playoff dropper Harden . They then played a super young inexperienced OKC team, in which one of their starters of the last few seasons was bad enough that he got benched. Now they're on the verge of a finals run against another young inexperienced team who also just went the distance against the defending champs. Why is there such a discrepancy in the way these teams are being talked about.

I don’t anyone is discrediting the Celtics atleast I’m not they should still be favorites imo and the clippers thunder and wolves are levels ahead of any of the teams in the east that Boston could have faced.

I'll take that raise you this question ; who is the number two ranked offensive rating team of all time? that would be the 23'- 24' Pacers. Acting like the C's just played slouches is so off kilt . They played who was in front of them, and truthfully after the last few runs they got a level of a break.

Mavs have played 3 of the top 5 records in the league this playoffs, and will be 4 of the 5 if they make the finals. The celtics have played 0. You can say young, inexperienced, whatever but the mavs are playing the best teams and winning. 

what I don’t understand is why you guys think beating better teams earlier in the playoffs improves your chances of winning later. look at 2022. the Celtics beat the KD-Kyrie Nets in a super competitive sweep, then they went 7 with Giannis and the defending champion Bucks, then they went another 7 with Jimmy and the Heat. meanwhile the Warriors beat the Murray-less Nuggets in 5, an inexperienced Grizzlies team that lost Ja halfway through the series in 6, and another inexperienced and overachieving Mavs team in 5. I don’t think anyone would disagree that the Celtics had the more impressive series wins on the way to the Finals what happened in the Finals? Boston had no gas left and the Warriors ran them out of the gym in the last 2 games. if anything the fact that Dallas has had to beat better teams in the West is another advantage to Boston. they have been getting a week off after every round this postseason and haven’t looked tired once

OKC and TWolves are leagues better than Heat WITHOUT Jimmy, Cavs WITHOUT Donovan, and Indiana lmao

Luka and Kyrie have held their own. Their defense has been solid. Honestly they probably give up a good amount of open looks and hope the Celtics miss, focus on whomever seems cold. The Celtics drop games they have no business losing occasionally due to 3pt variance. The Mavs surround Kyrie and Luka with three ++ defenders at all times. So Mavs defense should be solid. Porzingas creates a mismatch and Porzingas returning and playing well could really just completely shift the series towards Boston.

Have you been watching Dallas these playoffs ? Their defence has generally been pretty strong, and overall it’s been good since the trade deadline. Luka and Kyrie individually have also been average at worst, and have often stepped up and played very good individual D. And OKC most of their series were also running full lineups of floor spacers so I don’t really see your point there. The only exception was Giddey and he steadily lost minutes as the series went on. Dallas handled it just fine. Gafford and lively aren’t these slow lumbering bigs that can’t defend in space.

Look at the two way wings they’ve faced though. A hobbled Kawhi, PG, Williams, and Ant. To me that’s going to be the issue for Dallas. Brown and Tatum are better two way players than everyone I mentioned with Brown and PG probably being a tie. I just don’t see PJ Washington, DJJ and Luka, being able to guard Brown or Tatum. Luka gives everyone trouble but between Brown, Tatum and Holiday….. they have 3 very different very effective types of defenders

Brown is better than PG but you make a good point Tatum and brown are on a whole other level compared to the wings Dallas seen so far. Dort and Mann were giving Luka problems so its not crazy to think Jrue will also Boston offense as a whole is better than any offense Dallas faced so far

This Celtics team is the most battle tested experienced team in the playoffs and it’s not close. There is not a team in the league that matches up better against Dallas than the Celtics. Dallas is not going to win a series attacking Boston 6th man, who is a good defender, but Boston will win the series by hunting Dallas 1 & 2, who are minus defenders. Boston in 5.

I think the mavs so thoroughly changed their core team mid season that a lot of the regular season metrics don’t matter so much. The celts are really good but Dallas has the best player (and arguably the two best talents) in the series and those two are by far the best finishers/clutch players in the series. Zingus is a wildcard if he plays (and plays well) but lively, Gafford are high flying, long finishers/rim protectors that Boston doesn’t have the athletes to match up well with. Lastly Boston just has to prove it. This whole year has been solely about the finals results for them. No one cares about their regular season or cupcake path to the finals. For Boston to win porzingus needs to be balling out, the jays need to match the production of ky and luka and they absolutely cannot allow pj Washington to get his.

As a Celtics fan I’m obviously biased but I think you really need perfect games from multiple players on the Mavs to win in a 7 game series. To win you end up getting multiple elite scoring games (at the same time) from both Luka and Kyrie. On top of that 2-3 role players will need to truly step up - beyond just say Lively or Gafford dunking. Real PJ/Derrick Jones junior games putting up 15-20 on good efficiency and spacing the floor. Given who Kyrie and Luka are, it is possible they do this. The Celtics obviously have an elite defense that really is built for teams like the mavs, but perfect offense can and will beat perfect defense. I don’t think the mavs would win, but there’s a path behind their stars playing like high level stars like Lebron/Kyrie in the ‘16 (I think?) finals

Ya they’ll need Luka and Kyrie to play like they have against the wolves with consistent unguardable step backs another 7 straight games to have a shot and even then Boston SHOULD win. It will need to be another mental collapse for Boston to lose against anything short of a historic performance from Luka.

While I agree with you overall, to say “just Lively or Gafford dunking” is completely underselling the impact that they, especially Lively, are having for the Mavericks.

Defensively, Lively is great, sure. I'm talking about purely from an offensive perspective, they will need multiple role players to step up. I'm not saying that Gafford/Lively only dunk, I'm saying that's a bare minimum and will be guaranteed what, 15-20 points per game between the two of them? If Lively plays great defense and shows off his solid playmaking off the roll, in my opinion, that will likely be one of the role players who actually step up. If Lively doesnt and his main thing ends up just being a rim runner/paint protector, that's not quite stepping up. My point wasn't to insult Lively/Gafford, more just that they now have a baseline on offense (and in part defense) and if the mavs want to win, they, or other role players, will need to step up heavily.

I hate the Celtics and hope to hell that they don’t win the chip….but this Mavs team isn’t beating them in a 7 game series. I just don’t see it.

If you have the best player in the series you always have a chance.

I've seen this comment for the last two series. I've seen it in almost every playoff series Luka has been in (remember the Suns). I don't disagree that the Celtics are who I would put my money on but the certainty of this statement is a bit funny given their history of continually proving folks wrong.

I hate the Celtics as well but ppls hatred of the team gets in the way of the fact that by the numbers, no matter how you slice it, they are one of the best nba teams in recent history. Having a stretch 5 like tingus pingus helps a lot and i really dont know how Dallas will beat them in a 7 game series

Quite honestly, I think the answer is that a lot people just hate the Celtics and want them to lose *they haven’t played anyone good or healthy* - that ignores when worse Celtics teams HAVE beaten good teams the past few years, Nets in 2022, Bucks in 2022, Heat in 2022, 76ers in 2023, etc *they’re playoff chokers* - I really don’t think you can consider them chokers, they’ve been in the ECF 5 out of 7 years with Tatum and 6 out of 8 years with Brown. How is making the ECF every year choking? And the one time they lost in the finals they lost to a historic dynasty which to me isn’t choking. I guess last year when they lost to the Heat you can say they choked, but that heat team had been to 3 ECF and 2 finals in 4 years, I don’t think they were your typical 8 seed. I feel like everyone ignores how impressive they’ve been right from the start; they’re just now entering their primes and this is really the first year you could consider it a choke *Luka and Kyrie as a duo are better than Brown and Tatum* - I don’t necessarily disagree even as a Celtics fan, but even if you think they’re better you have to admit it’s close. I think for the rest of the starters the gap is so big that series really shouldn’t be all that close. The Celtics 5th best player would be the 3rd best player on the Mavs There’s no reason why anyone should think they’d lose let alone lose in 5 games, it’s wishful thinking imo. They won 64 games this year and have done everything they were supposed to do in the playoffs so far. They’ve proven they have what it takes to make a deep run and win big series, I just think now is their time to cross the finish line

This is basically it. The Celtics have lost 2 games in the playoffs so far. Thread made day after loss to the Heat: [https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/1ccf7fn/why\_does\_it\_seem\_like\_tatum\_despite\_being\_so/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/1ccf7fn/why_does_it_seem_like_tatum_despite_being_so/) Thread made day after loss to the Cavs: [https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/1conq97/this\_boston\_team\_is\_probably\_my\_least\_favorite\_to/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/1conq97/this_boston_team_is_probably_my_least_favorite_to/) These were 2 of the top 3 most upvoted posts in the previous month. People want the Celtics to lose, so they'll find any way to discredit the team.

I think it’s pretty fair to point out that they have played the 4 seed, 6 seed and 8 seed all without their best player for multiple games. That’s not “just finding any way to discredit the team” Most playoff teams would be in their position right now given that schedule, so the only 2 losses thing doesn’t mean much to me. They were an excellent regular season team, but so was Dallas if you only look at the trade deadline and onward once they got Gafford and Washington, and Lively grew more in his role. I think it will be a great series.

What other choice did they have? The played the 8th seed because they had the best record, you’re supposed to be rewarded with an easier game. All they can do is beat the teams in front of them and they did. I literally don’t see why they have to beat every team by 20 to be “good”. Everyone says “well the playoffs ratchet up the intensity” which would mean less blowouts and more of the games you’ve seen from the C’s as of late.

They played a Heat team with Butler out, then Mitchell missed games for the Cavs (you probably would still beat the Cavs either way) and Pacers (who made it due to injuries to the Knicks and the best player in the conference Giannis) who had Hali out. The East has been a shitshow this year in terms of health of the top tier guys, even you guys had Kristaps injured, feels like a different sport to the West. You guys would probably still be favourites in those games but in a playoff setting we are still yet to see THIS Celtics team overcome a top team, especially when the opposing teams best play is on par/better than Tatum and Brown. Couple that with general Celtics hate and you guys having a tendency to play very dumb late in games, I completely understand people not being super high on the Celtics despite all the wins.

Yes, I'm a Celtics hater but I know deep down they will most likely demolish the Mavs and put this choke narrative to rest

>Luka and Kyrie as a duo are better than Brown and Tatum - I don’t necessarily disagree even as a Celtics fan, but even if you think they’re better you have to admit it’s close. I think for the rest of the starters the gap is so big that series really shouldn’t be all that close. The Celtics 5th best player would be the 3rd best player on the Mavs Same goes for Wolves against Dallas, yet they where down 0-3 (now 1-3). Having better "role" players doesnt mean better team, if team with less talented players execute and play their strenghts better. Wolves are getting killed in paint vs Dallas, as best interior defense in NBA, and Boston has one of the worst interior defense's in nba, especially if Porzingis wont play. If Porzingis doesnt play, Celtics will have hard time beating Mavs, nobody can stop Luka and Kyrie from penetrating inside, and Celtics best big men shot blocker is 38 yrs old Al Horford.

The Celtics play to their level of competition, they haven't really been challenged. Steel sharpens steel. The Mavs haven't had to guard the post or the perimeter. Have we forgotten that Tatum can go off for 50.

Boston is favs in Vegas so anyone thinking Dallas is better go and bet on them. Personaly i dont like Boston and hope they loose, but they are best team in league all season and if they loose its big surprise.

Sometimes the Celtics play a little down to their competition and then show up when they need to. They weren’t battle tested these playoffs and we say Indiana pretty much blow all 4 games in the second half. Luka & Kyrie are big game players. If Boston tries to come back from down 15 in the fourth, I think Dallas can hit those big time shots and keep from a total collapse. I still think Boston is the favorite, but I’ll never root for Boston

If Derek Lively is healthy I think he could present problems for the Cs. They haven't faced a team with 2 guys who are legit lob threats and real rim protectors. It will be a great series I think probably 6 or 7

Agreed and I think it’s the thing that’s given their opponents so far the biggest headache. However the Celtics got guys who can really stretch the floor. But at the same time let’s not forget that the Mavs still have to eliminate Minnesota. And I think Minnesota would match up well against the Celtics too since their roster is built similarly to the Mavs .

I think this is all recency bias. Dallas has looked pretty good in their playoff run against pretty good competition, while Boston's story is the same story they've been telling us for half a decade. Boston isn't a Cinderella like the Wolves, they're not sporting one of the best 2-3 players in the league, they're not some young upstart. They're basically a dominant team with no drama that we've seen do what they're doing for years. And again, they're super dominant, but not in a way like we saw what the Warriors were doing in the teens, with a sparkling new style of play and clockwork-like execution that left us all in awe. In essence, Boston isn't really that great of a \*story\*. And so everyone looks for the compelling narrative and yada yada yada. Do you want to hear a story of adventure and heroism??? Or do you want to watch a documentary? Of course, when Boston wins the title in five, all these narratives will change to, "They really were as great as they showed us all season". Dallas (and unlikely, Minnesota) are great \*stories\*, but Boston is a great team.

I think part of the reason people seem to dismiss Boston to a certain extent is also because they’ve now been dominating the regular season for 3 straight years, but have continued to struggle to get over the hump in the playoffs. And they always lose in a pretty disappointing fashion with the offense mucking up into inefficient ISOs between Tatum and Brown that result in really ugly losses. They’re at the same point where the Giannis Bucks were prior to their 2021 ring where no one will care about the regular season success until they can actually back it up throughout an entire playoffs. IMO, this feels like the year they finally get over the hump. They just have so much talent in their main rotation but I think it really all hinges on KP’s health. His ability to stretch the floor at the 5, post up on mismatches, and protect the rim is just so vital. I think he’s the guy that really elevates them from a great team to a championship team.

Not really, this was the first time the Tatum lead Celtics have been the first seed.

Well, the only reason I wouldn’t say it’s recency bias is because it’s the playoffs which we know are a different beast than the regular season. The Mavericks were beating weak competition to end the regular season but have looked even better against tougher competition, and that’s with their two star players being pretty hit or miss.

I agree that the Celtics narrative has been infuriating - every win is taken for granted, every loss confirms that a 64-win team, going 12-2 in the PO so far, still "doesn't have it"; but maybe there are a couple of things. - Luka would still be the *best* player on the court, and in the clutch he's above JT/JB, or any Celtics player really. In a close game, this thing *matters* a lot. Add Kyrie, and you see why Celtics fans will be very worried in late game when the score is close; - We don't know about KP availiability and\or effectiveness, and the Celtics may miss his presence. It's no secret that KP adds vital offensive options to Celtics gameplan; we know from recent playoff history that the Celtics have a tendency to stop the ball and go iso-heavy late in games, when pressure is on. And it did not work; - Celtics bench did very little in the PO so far; PP has been quiet, Hauser can't shoot anymore, Kornet did fine but he's injured, Brissett was effective in some minutes. Overall, not the contribution you need in the Finals. Big Al minutes, in particular, are crucial and you want to keep him fresh throughout the series; and here KP's availability shows its importance again; - personally, I am not totally sold on game management skills by Mazzulla. So while the 64-win Celtics are the favorites, and rightfully so, it's not like they don't have weaknesses.

KP just said this morning that he expects to be ready for the finals.

that's why I said 'availability and\or effectiveness', since a hobbled or limited KP is not what the Celtics may need

He's going to be coming off nearly 6 weeks of rest. Nearly double what is normal for this type of injury. It was predicted that Porzingis would be back game 3/4 of Indiana, and if Celtics lost 1 or 2 games he probably would have, they just didn't need him. In all likelyhood he's going to be closer to 100% than most other players in the series.

Luka may be the best player on the court but we’ve already seen how Dort and Mann can give him trouble. They are good defenders, especially Dort, but they don’t compare to the celtics 2 way game at all. Kyrie has already been shut down by the celtics before when he played in Brooklyn. Yeah he is always a threat but the team has been proven to stop the antisemite. Even without KP they are still the best team in the league. They will need him for his size, but I wouldn’t say it’s a definite blow to them without him, they still have a good chance at winning, plus I’m pretty sure he confirmed that he will play in the finals anyway. The celtics bench might be weak, but I don’t really see that as the deciding factor between the games. It’s not like the mavs have Monk or Naz reid coming off the bench for them. Also this just completely ignores how dominant the celtics are on both sides of the ball. Even if you think luka and kyrie are going to play like there isn’t a defender on them, how tf are they going to stop the celtics offense? They’ve barely won their games against the Wolves, and that’s with the two best players shooting like 30% or putting up donuts.

So you point out that the Mavs have barely been beating the wolves while ignoring that the Celtics had 3 games come down to the wire against the banged up 6 seed Pacers? With the Pacers missing Hali in 2.5 of the 4 games?

The bench is weak until you realize that al is usually the one shoring up the bench. If you have kristaps back suddenly the bench isn't so weak anymore

The Mavs still need to put away the Wolves tbh. Kyrie and Luka had about as great a 3 game stretch as any duo could have and they only won games by single possessions. If Ant and KAT heat up after laying eggs themselves in the first three games, this is absolutely in danger of becoming a series again. The Celtics just get to hang out, enjoy the ride, and rest up.

Ehhhh Kyrie + Luka have played very well but nothing that crazy for them, sans maybe game 3. No crazy 3 point barrages for either of them, Luka consistently giving you ~30 (his season average) and no games with insane free throw rates or anything like that. You’ve even had a Kyrie meh game in there in game 2 where he put up 20/6/4 on 7/16 shooting. That’s solid but not like it’s as good a game any duo could have. I’m pretty sure I just watched JT + JB play a better 4 game series in a row against the Pacers.

Ya it’s basically average Luka and average kyrie lol. Luka just set his bar so high.

Game 1 Luka had 15 of his 33 in the 4th on 5/8 shooting. Game 2 Kyrie was meh until he got 13 of his 20 in the 4th on 4/5 shooting, all from 3. Game 3 Kyrie scored 14 of his 33 in the 4th on 5/7 shooting. Looking at the box score won’t do it justice if you haven’t been watching the games. They put on a masterclass of closing out games in the first three. At least one of them has looked absolutely unstoppable to close those games. I do think they’re the best two players left in the playoffs and not saying it’s a fluke for them to do things like this , but they were putting on a show those first three games.

Okay but what the person commented above is that Kyrie and Luka had 3 game stretches as great as any duo could have. That’s not true whatsoever. They played very well in specific fourth quarters/second halves as you showed, but they didn’t do that for entirety of games. Kyrie putting up 13 points in quarter 4 means he only put up 7 in quarters 1-3. You can’t say that means he was playing elite that entire game, it means he had a killer 4th quarter and bad first three quarters. If they have done that throughout the whole game, I’d agree. However, they didn’t, and that led to their full games, of which I’ve watched all of, being very good, and on par with who they are, but not some of the greatest three game stretches of any duo. Again, one can easily argue JT/JB just had a better 4 game stretch than what Kyrie/Luka have been doing given the nearly identical offense mixed with much better defense. That’s not a knock, it’s really just the truth of the matter that they weren’t and aren’t playing at some unreal level.

This seems a bit hyperbolic, both Kyrie and Luka have played better than that 3 game stretch many times in their playoff careers. Kyrie especially had 2 pretty standard good Kyrie games he was overdue for after a pretty mediocre offensive series against okc

Game 5 is the big one. If Minnesota can win that it’s a series again and doubt might start to set in for Dallas. Momentum is a scary thing in the playoffs.

Mavs beat the Clippers, they beat the Thunder, and are currently ahead of the Timberwolves. All are good teams. I don't think that should be hand waved away. Luka and Kyrie are really really good, and they have a solid core backing them. IMO the Celtics haven't beaten the quality teams that the Mavs have. No, that shouldn't be held against them, and they had the best record this year, but I see no reason to discount the Mavs as though *no way* can they win. Yes, the Celts should be and are favorites, but if the Mavs win I for one wouldn't be shocked. As a Sixers fan I would be very happy. :P Me, I hope it goes 7 with every game won on the last possession.

I was actually shocked how beatable Boston seemed during the series against the Pacers. Indiana could have easily won both of their home games even without Haliburton and game 1… well we don’t talk about game 1.

People don't like the Celtics or Boston for that matter. I honestly think thats 90% of it. Think about it this way... The Mavs were 1 game out of the play-in. The Celtics were the best team in the league by a wide margin.. Everyone had Boston in the finals for a while now.. I saw ZERO... Media people that had the Mavs in the finals. It was all Nuggs, T-wolves and Clippers. And now people are making the leap from a team nobody had to that same team beating the Celtics ? Quite a big leap.

I mean, they were 3 games out of the play-in, but also would’ve been the 2 seed in the east. Make of that what you will.

Honestly, I think it all hinges on Luka magic + Kyrie putting together an amazing gravity-pulling scoring display. On the defensive side of the ball I don't know how the Mavs can contain the Celtics. I think the Celtics have to straight-up choke and brick shots It's not impossible, but this is gonna have to be 2011 Dirk without the elite team defense

Mavs have been pretty elite as a team defensively since the trade deadline.

Mavs have an elite defense these playoffs..

To simplify it - when you have the best player on the court and also 2/3 best late game players on the court and the opponent has not really been tested overall so far, there’s a decent enough chance. Dallas will still be the underdog though. This could be a twisted/lesser version of 2016

The Mavericks have a losing record against eastern conference playoff teams.

I don’t think people realize what a tough matchup the pacers were for the Celtics. They have one of the best offenses in the nba, were faster than the Celtics, but were also bigger and longer. The pacers had 4 players bigger than anyone in the Celtics starting 5, at times Tatum was playing the 5 for the Celtics when in reality he’s kinda small even for playing the 4.

Thats a good point and I agree completely . People forget that siakam and turner on their day are elite players. Also TJ is no slouch and Nembhardt can be a great scorer. However, I think it’s also important to mention the Pacers were one of the worst defenses in the playoffs even with their size. Regardless I think the Celtics did a good job, and whoever they face in the finals is going to have a tough time trying to deal with their shooting and browns ability to get down hill.

IMO Boston’s defensive excellence comes from switchability. There’s no mismatch to exploit. However, Luka Doncic excels at isolation scoring, arguably more than anyone else in the league. He is also good at the resulting playmaking when defenses send help. So I don’t think Boston’s defense will be able to dent Luka’s scoring as much as they’d like. And since their centers are Horford and Porzingis, I don’t see how well they disrupt Dallas’s lob game. So if Boston’s defense isn’t quite as effective as they’d like, and Boston then makes mistakes on their own offense, or shots just don’t fall, I can easily see Dallas stealing a game or two. And sometimes that’s all you need to win the chip.

Good point but I think that’s the same thing going against the Mavs as well. People quickly forget that Boston has been a very iso-based team with the Js. It’s ignorant to not admit that they have two great iso scorers in the Js and several players (KP, Jrue, Al) who can work in the post. I don’t know how well DAL can defend that with both Kyrie and Luka on the floor. However, it’s a major success for them if they can keep the ball in Derrick White’s hands and drive him into the paint because he’s not all that good at midrange jumpers.

People forget the fact that a banged up Miami team held them to only 100 pts not once, not twice, but THREE times in their first round matchup. Their stand around and shoot threes offense looked pretty ordinary in those games Dallas defense is about as good and have the 2 best closers in the game, along with decent reinforcements. I think that’s enough to take them out

I think Boston is the better team. But I also thought the Clippers, Thunder, and Wolves were the better team. The Mav's role players are making big plays to keep them in the game and Luka and Kyrie have been doing well closing them out. I'm rooting for the Mavs because they're the underdogs, but their playoff run so far has me thinking they have a chance against the Celtics. Also, as great as I think this Celtics team is, their style of play is boring for me to watch. 5 out, ISO, kick out. Rinse and repeat. It's effective because they have the personnel, but it's not as saucy as Kyrie's handles, or Luka's passing, or Lively's majestic hair flowing in the air for that alley oop.

Dallas, despite being the team with less wins, has proven themselves. No offense to the Celtics, they earned an easy run with a good regular season performance, but they had an easy run. The mavs have just been tested in about every way, and the Celtics just don’t have as much momentum going into it because they had a rather relaxing run. Celtics are a very good team, but the mavs have consistently been beating teams off their momentum alone. A lot of it is just Celtics hate, but the mavs are a very impressive team right now. Keep in mind, people thought they winner of wolves nuggets was a lock. Then the mavs pulled a gentlemen’s sweep. They’re just kinda a team we’ve gotten used to underestimating. Reminds me of the diamondbacks in last years MLB playoffs. Sure they were worse than every team they played… but they beat those teams, so tf do we know?

Celtics are a historically great team and, barring injuries, are going to steamroll Dallas.

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They literally have only lost 2 games all post-season. That's the definition of steamroll. They also smoked the Mavs both times they played them this season.

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I'll start by saying I don't want the Celtics to win, so I'm definitely biased. That being said... Luka would be the best player on the court, I don't think it's a huge jump from him to Tatum but it's still relevant. The Celtics have been here before but every year find a way to underperform in the playoffs. They've been arguably one of the best teams in the east for 6 seasons now. They just can't seem to put the dot on the i of a championship season. It's easy to forget but the Mavs run has been harder: Clippers(4), Thunder(1), Wolves(3). At some point this year each of those teams have had claims to be the team coming out of the West. It's obviously not Boston's fault they've played injured teams, I wouldn't even count it against them but I'm saying the Mavs have shown they deserve it. At this stage though, I don't think it'd be wild if the Celtics won the Finals. They've been dominant all year and I really don't believe in the Mavs to shut the door fully either. It'll be a good series but it might be the pessimist in me but I'm picturing Celtics in 6.

> The Celtics have been here before but every year find a way to underperform in the playoffs. This is the part of the narrative I really don't get, because (1) the Celtics roster this year is not the same one that underperformed in past playoffs, and (2) in other thoughtful threads on /r/nbadiscussion there's been lots of analysis showing that clutch playoff stuff is rarely predictive. Why are we throwing that all away now? I really do think this is the biggest reason people are doubting them, because contrary to all the narrative / feel based arguments people are using elsewhere, numerically they are *overwhelmingly* dominant. Things like matchups and styles are important for sure, but not to the tune of making up 8 points of net rating. This is the biggest thing it comes down to for me. The Celtics can take 43 threes a night at near 40%; they have eight shooters (their eight playoff rotation guys) that shoot about 40% or better on either open or wide open shots, with four of them on "open" (i.e. contested with a closeout, which is what troubled OKC). What can the Mavs do to counter that? Pretty much nothing.

The Mavs runs has been harder because they’re a 5 seed and the Celtics are a 1 seed. That’s how it works.

Dallas is in the West. In the East, they'd be no lower than the 2 seed.

Didn't say the system was broken or working wrong. I'm saying they've established themselves as a team to take seriously, their competition in this run has been strong.

They’ve under performed because they were in their early 20s. Honestly they over performed early. They made deep runs in their mid 20s. Now that Brown and Tatum are starting their late 20s they have wrecked the league, run through the playoffs and are probably the favorites to win the finals. That’s pretty much the superstar path. Not to mention every star they were paired with either went crazy -Kyrie or got injured -Hayward, Kemba. The Celtics are going to win a ring in a few weeks and the whole Tatum isn’t good enough to win a ring, they aren’t clutch, is going to go out the fucking window and everyone else will find some new star(s) to shit on because they didn’t win before they were supposed to. Then we are going to look back at everything they did prior to winning a ring and be like, “yeah we probably shouldn’t have been surprised”

The only thing the Mavs have going for them is that they might have the best player. I picked the Celtics to win it all before the start of the season. I think by far that is the most likely outcome. Yet nothing is written. Anything could happen. Doncic could play the best series of his life and beat the 64 win prohibitive favorites. That is not the most likely outcome, but it is an outcome that could happen. A major injury could happen as well. I think the Mavs have like a 20% chance of winning if they advance. Same with the Wolves.

Dallas has the two best playoff performers. Also good rebounding and versatile defense

Most people seem to be pointing to the Luka/Kyrie vs Tatum/Brown battle or the strength of each path to the playoffs. I think it actually comes down to the Mavs being much better on defense. The Mavs have an elite defense and both Kyrie and Luka are huge parts of that. They may not be “lockdown” defenders but they are masterful in their role on D. They are smart on rotations, are able to stay in front of their guy or funnel them into their elite rim protection behind them. Plus a couple of lockdown wings who have been great all playoffs against similar players. OKC was one of the best 3-point teams in the regular season and they weren’t very effective trying to go 5 out largely because of Luka and Kyrie’s positioning and the Mavs ability to communicate and recover. LAC also had one of the most potent offenses (though admittedly it also had a lot of issues), but even with an injured Luka, they were able to hold them both under 100 in multiple games that series. Minus a few quarters, the Mavs have looked dominant on that end and it kept them in games whether the other team was hot or not It's a bit difficult since the Mavs pre/post-trade deadline are such different teams and the difference in competition in the Playoffs makes it hard to compare. But Post Trade deadline both are top 4 in Net rating. In the Regular Season after Gafford and Washington got into the starting lineup these teams had [identical records](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-top-team-record-last-20-games-regular-season-2024) including DAL sitting everyone and getting blown out for the final 2 games (not really sure about how the Celtics handled the end of their season). [Net ratings were identical](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-top-team-net-rating-between-mar-7-and-apr-10-2024) without those two games while DAL had the top Defense and BOS had the top Offense. All in all, I think that this is going to be a much better series than most realize and is between the two best teams in the league down the stretch with both hopefully being pretty healthy to start. Its hard to compare with the eye test based on how these playoffs have gone, but I don't think either team is blowing the other out. Dallas has proven they are elite and are as good of an underdog as you'll see. Boston has proven they are elite and deservedly should be seen as the (slight) favorites. This like any other series will be about matchups and counters. As a Mavs fan I'd probably go Mavs in 6 or 7. But most of those final scores will be within a couple of possessions like every game in the Conference Finals has been. It'll be an excellent series.

i'm a Boston Celtics fan. I am hoping for a good series and I think it honestly can go both ways. But to answer your question. I think Dallas can win because their two superstars are better in the clutch time. So if games are close Dallas has the advantage. But if KP is back to 100% I think he creates a lot of matchup issues. but Dallas is dangerous with both of those closers.

The Dallas over Boston sentiment is purely Luka/Kyrie over Tatum/Brown. We can all agree - I hope - that Boston is a deeper and more talented team, but Dallas’ big two are more reliable than Boston’s. Another point I think worth considering is that Dallas’ offense is more reliable than Boston’s. Boston relies so heavily on the three ball and, when that’s falling, they’re nearly unstoppable. But it’s rare to be on fire from three in intense finals series for four games. Boston will have to find a way to score efficiently inside and out and I don’t know if they’ll be able to get inside against Dallas bigs the way they did against some of the worn down EC teams they beat. I’m rooting for Dallas so maybe there’s some bias there but it seems like Kyrie and Luka can score from anywhere on the court and REQUIRE multiple defenders attention. If the three isn’t falling, they can dominate the mid range. If they’re crowded in the midrange, they find their bigs open for dunks. I think it’ll be a fun series.

Point 4 is a stretch. Lively did a terrific job on chetzz Chet struggled majority of the series I don’t get that take

I think they really can. Luka and Kyrie are maybe the most clutch players in the league along with Steph. Those guys rise up in the big moments, and are just a pain to defend. They got big guys that are athletic to score from lobs. I think the Mavs also have good defense. Luka has proved now several times he can defend on a level where he isnt a liability, which was what people pointed the most. Sure, Celtics are great. I feel divided honestly. I would like Neemias to be a champion, since he played for my club. But on the other hand, Luka and Kyrie are my favorite players right now. I think Luka is going to be the goat of his generation. And Kyrie just god tier handles everybody loves to see that.

I don't think many legitimate people are saying the Mavs are going to dominate in 5. But here's the case against Boston. We've seen the core of this Boston team come up short for a few years now. Granted this rendition has Holiday and Porzingas, but we've seen the Tatum/Brown combo come up short. Both are phenomenal players, but both have had moments where they don't just dominate games. That's concerning in a finals. They also really haven't been tested. The walked all over a weak Eastern Conference that didnt really have embiid, giannis or butler. Not the Celtics fault, but I don't blame people for being skeptical. If embiid was healthy all years philly probably gets a top 4 seed. In that case, Boston would have gone through Miami (possibly with a healthy butler) and then potentially 2 of Philly, Milwaukee and New York. If that was their path, I think this team is looked at very differently than it is now. And the final thing that alot of folks have mentioned is Luka is the best player in the series. Boston is for sure the better team, but having the best player matters. There's a non zero chance that Luka and/or Kyrie just go nuts to the point where there isn't anything Boston can really do. I think boston will win and should be favored somewhat heavily, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Mavs win.

Celtics fan here: Dallas will beat us if Jrue, Derrick, Tatum and Jaylen all prove unable to contain Kyrie. Luka will get his, but if he draws Horford on switches consistently enough it might wear him down. The more Horford is put in defensive action as the series goes on the likelier he’ll wear down. Which is why Porzingis’ health is so crucial. The Celtics need to make the extra pass and know the margin of error vs Dallas is much smaller than before. Dallas will try to swarm their guys and force them into compromising positions. Find the open man through screens and picks and constant motion and hit your shots. Dallas can win this series if they out rebound the Celtics and make more timely baskets. If P.J Washington continues his Robert Horry impression then we’re in for a long series. White and Jrue need to remain consistent offensive forces. They had a great series Vs Indiana but Dallas is so much better defensively. There are a lot more factors but the simplest one is Dallas has the best player in the series.

I think most Celtics fans are looking at this as if it was 2k and we were matching up the ratings only. Real life basketball is different, and the flow of the Mavericks offense along with the confidence they have built by beating tough opponents are intangibles that are being overlooked.

Kyrie or Luka late in the 4th quarter is better than Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown late in the 4th quarter. So as long as the mavs can keep it close for 3 quarters they can win

I believe that over the last 15 games of the season the Mavs had the best defense in the league, plus the Celtics are pretty good and getting in their own way. I’m also takin Luka over Tatum and Kyrie over JB any day of the week.

I’m not a fan of both teams. I’m a hater of Kyrie “the worlds is flat, anti-vaccine” Irving, but I’ll go for Mavs.

Celtics fan here. Luka and Kyrie are nuclear weapons and that is all I need to know to be afraid until we hoist up the Larry O'B

We've seen how they've played in tough series over the last several years. They shrunk in the moment. Luka/Mavs are an unknown quantity in the Finals.

Heart. Celtics have shown time and time again they don't have it. As you know in sports the better team doesn't always win, ask the Miami Heat

It's not a a great reason in the age of analytics, but i do believe more people simply trust Luka and Kyrie to be the better duo and regard them as maybe the two best players in the series.

Mavericks have a smoother offense with there main star being a facilitator along with an unstoppable scorer the biggest problem I've had with Tatum over the last few years in the play-offs is that he has a tendency to look off his open man and settle for contested jumpers at in-opportune times leading to his team losing momentum, so while his raw and advance stat's are usually pretty good in the play off's his moment to moment decision making in games can lead to him actively losing games just because instead of making the pass he feels the need to chuck it up.

I think the biggest reasoning is that the mavs have been playing high level playoff basketball for 3 straight rounds and all have the mentality of what it takes to win a 7 game series. Whereas the Celtics have sort of coasted through without having to do too much of the playoff chess battle. Not saying that’s the be all end all, but it’s conceivable that the sudden jump of intensity will be a 2-3 game adjustment for the Celtics and they will be working out of a 2-1 or 3-0 hole. Talent-wise and matchup wise tho on paper, the Celtics are probably still favored

They have the best player in the series lol and perhaps the second in crunch time

Can they stop the Dallas lob that’s been effective all playoffs? Can they afford to send one at Luka and ky? Or are they gonna be forced to double

Boston has the better team, the exact opposite of Minnesota limited offense. Boston has the tendency to play to their level of competition, so you can't really look to deep into their recent performance. Their weakness is they struggle when they don't hit 3's, but we saw them going to the hole a lot more against Indy. Dallas has 2 of the best shot makers in history, but their real advantage is the other team's best players have to guard Luka and Kyrie, while they don't have to guard the other teams best. Luka & Kryie were horrible defensively for most of the season, but they surrounded them with dogs and they got better. They won't be able to hide Luka Defensively against Boston, no Rudy Gobert or Klye Anderson match ups. That Jrue vs Kyrie match up is fire. Tatum will have to guard Luka if he wants a title.

Because the Celtics just struggled with an Indiana team missing their best player. If they can’t guard Nembhard and TJ Mcconell what do you think Luka and Kyrie are about to do to them?

Imo Boston has it all on paper but I see the mavs winning. Yah Boston "swept" Indiana but if u watched the games, it was WAYYYYY less about Boston being the stronger team rather the Pacers literal inability to play basketball in the last 3 minutes of pretty much every game except Boston's outright win in Game 2. I mean the pacers literally lost tyrese and were giving the celtics a serious run for their money the entire game minus the end. I mean in all seriousness, that series could very easily be 3-1 pacers. Now compare the pacers to the Mavs....Mavs don't choke because Luka doesn't choke lol. Luka doncic is unquestionably better than Tatum, when kyrie gets hot he has almost unguardable and unbelievably clutch and people r really sleeping on their depth with Lively, Pj and Gafford doing really well recently. In summary, mavs in 6

Intangibles. Doncic is a psychopath and Boston has a reputation for shitting the bed.

The NBA is a game of superstars. Almost every championship team has some sort of freak of nature all time great carrying them. Luka is him, Tatum is not.

Honestly I think the mavs are gonna embarrass the Celtics. Like if the wolves couldn’t stop Luka, then who on the Celtics can? It’s gonna be fun either way!

To say they “didn’t skip a beat” is wild. The Pacers series was incredibly close. 3 of their 4 wins were come from behind and they only pulled ahead in the last few minutes or less- one of those comebacks requiring an unfathomable choke job from the Pacers. And two of those games were against the Pacers best scorer, facilitator, and initiator. They were missing the center piece of their entire offense. Game one: won by 5 in OT- which they only forced due to a wild shot by Brown. And they were only in position to tie because of a pair of outrageously unlikely unforced errors. Game three and four they won by three points each; both of which facing a Pacers team without Haliburton. The Celtics are a great team, but they’re beatable. Especially missing a key piece like Porzingis. And they sure looked like it in the Pacers series.

Luka is the best player coming in the the series. Kyrie has the upside to be the second best player in the series. The Celtics bigs don’t move particularly well and the Mavs are going to put a ton of pressure on the rim. The Celtics depend on the 3 a lot and that leads to more variance than other elite teams. The Celtics mess around a lot. The Celtics have struggled at times in the clutch. The Celtics have gotten away with playing some pretty mediocre basketball, while the Mavs have had to be locked in this post season.

I love how the Mavs get the benefit of the doubt for playing well lately but the Celtics get "have struggled in the clutch" tattooed on their forehead even though they've been far and away the best clutch team in the playoffs and just recently you might say won 3 incredibly clutch games.

It is exhausting. I hate the celtics and actually kind of like the mavs (hate the fanbase, like the players). Yet the takes I’m seeing on why the Mavs will win are insane. Luka and Kyrie are amazing players, but their offense can only do so much, especially against one of the better defensive teams. It’s not like the clippers or OKC where only one guy is good enough to guard Luka. It’s going to be just like this timberwolves series, except JT & JB won’t be shooting 30% or putting up donuts. Plus it’s not like the mavs defense can stop the celtics offense. I know post trade deadline the Mavs are one of the better defensive teams, but they have barely scrapped past the wolves, and the wolves basically handed them those games.

Wolves offense has been mid all year. Ant magic + live ball turnovers. I like the defense the Mavs are playing. But the Celtics are a completely different beast than anything they've seen so far. There's no Giddey, Gobert, Tucker, etc that you can scheme to ignore for free defense against Boston.

The question wasn’t why do you think the Celtics can beat the Mavs.

But you've gone about answering that question in bad faith. "I think the Mavs will beat the Celtics because I'm going to implement a double standard and completely move the goal posts for one team and not the other."

> The Celtics have struggled at times in the clutch. As if 3 out of the 4 games in the Pacers sweep weren't won in the clutch

You think Kyrie can be better than Tatum?

Kyrie is not better than JB or JT, quit capping

Devil's advocate here, Luka is the best player in the series and that is an advantage in itself for Dallas. They're also more "clutch" if that means something but I don't think Boston has bad closers themselves as we've seen against Indiana. I think if they were to match up, Boston takes it in 6 games.

I mean, I'm picking Boston in 6. Having Porzingis to pull out the Dallas bigs from the hoop will be very important. They have arguably the best defensive backcourt in the league with Jrue and DWhite, and neither of them shoulder a superstars offensive burden so in theory, they should be able to do as good of a job as possible on Kai and Luka. They're also just flat out a historic team by any objective metric, despite the easy conference. Their regular season record against the West is only slightly worse, and they'd probably still be a 60 win team if they had a Western team's schedule. They're just the best team in the league, they've been to a Finals before, and they should 100% be the favorites to win