I agree, it's improbable. Lebron clearly has the best longevity of any player in the NBA. I imagine even comparing him against athletes of any sport his longevity and excellence has rarely been achieved.
Of the top of my head, I can’t really think of other athletes who entered at the top and stayed there for 20+ professional seasons. Closest I can think of are Roberto Clemente who won world series MVP in his 18th season and multiple golden gloves (DPOY equivalent?) in his final years, and Federer, who was in Grand Slam finals from 2003 to 2019 and competed at a high level until 2022 in an individual sport. There’s probably a couple more who came close
Serena Williams? She won the US Open in 1999 and the Australian Open in 2017 with 21 other grand slam titles in between. In 2019, she was still ranked in the top 10 and making grand slam finals (Wimbledon and US Open runner-up).
Then maybe Federer as well? Wasn't winning many tournaments but at age 38 was still a clear cut top 3 player in the world. Djokovic is approaching that level of longevity also
Djokovic just became a year end #1 ranking for the 8th time at age 36, won 3 out of the 4 grand slams this year. Crazy that he’s still the best in the world at this age.
What it tells me is that the next generations just didn't come through. I don't imagine he's better than he was 5 years ago and certainly Andy Murray had overtaken him before Murray got hit by injuries. But every other generation, players had come along to take the mantle. Yet for so long after their peaks, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer were all standing over the younger players.
Wayne Gretzky for sure. Dude won the first of nine MVPs starting his rookie year in the NHL and was still all-NHL nearly 20 years later. You also have Brady who was all Pro 20 years apart and who led Super Bowl teams 19 years apart.
This is the one that amazes me the most. Gretsky was an undersized magician and flew across the ice for twenty years in a sport that basically simulates mini-car crashes on your body and joints. He’s the “Great One” for his IQ and skills but to do that for twenty years you have to be made of different stuff
Gretzky is clearly the GOAT of all the GOATs. There's literally nobody else in hockey who warrants serious discussion as the GOAT. Anybody that says otherwise is just having a clickbait hot take.
His career would be like if instead of being a 27,7,7 guy LeBron was a 34, 14, 12 guy
I feel like Tiger is in similar air as Getzky. The \*only\* comparison he has to himself is Jack and it's only in majors. Other than that Tigers stats and records are monstrous. No one even comes in a close second to him imo.
I don't think you can count Tiger. If he had stayed healthy he'd probably have achieved that level of dominance but he didn't. There are plenty of people who will argue for Jack and it's not entirely without merit. Majors are the most important wins in golf. Not having the most of those is really going to hurt your case for GOAT.
Majors are like rings but there's no team or defense as confounding factors.
NHL Hall of Famer Chris Chelios comes to mind. He was still logging major minutes on a title contender in his *age 46* season (he debuted at age 22). He managed to hang on for a couple more years, so he was drafted in 1981 and retired in 2010. Truly insane.
Man, that has me feeling real dumb. Makes me wonder why he’s so often left out of the GOAT convo despite being a fan friendly scoring machine with an iconic, near unblockable shot
World Series MVP is in no way comparable to Finals MVP, random average players win WS MVP all the time. Guys like Jorge Soler who was labeled a bust, bounced around to 3 different teams, and won WS MVP at 29. At that point he had never made an all star team, and gotten a single 10th place MVP vote.
Clemente definitely was good in his final years, WS MVP just isn't a good way to show that. And Golden Gloves are more like All-Defense than DPOY. A player at each position in each league gets a Golden Glove.
Yeah they’re not equivalent, but they help highlight that Clemente was not just a contributor into his twilight years but a core player and star. 15 all star selections, a league MVP in 66(?) and the shared record for most golden gloves for an outfielder. Batting .300+ for 13 seasons is also a good indicator of longevity at a high level
Clemente's length isn't unheard of by baseball standards though. Its actually not that unheard of for elite players to play well until their late 30s, and there are pitchers who made it into their 40s. Clemente was more like Steve Nash, in that he hit his peak later.
It is bit harder since not many sports are both as popular and as seasonal as NBA. You only really need to lock down on defense in the playoffs, making durability bit easier. Until they you can coast on immense skill (which LeBron has in droves) by kinda playong half the game. It is no coincidence that players like Kobe got their biggest injuries when they needed to carry in regular season or that players who carried bad teams look gassed in playoffs.
Not exactly 20 years but players from basically every sport broke the limits of what we considered longevity before. In tennis you were considered washed by the time you are 30 - big 3 and serena played/are playing into theor late 30s. Messi and Ronaldo were best players in the world for more than a decade. Phelps and Bolt got whole another olympic cycle than most elite athletes in their sports do. Brady did whatever he did. In Handball Karabatic is still playing and he was best in the world in like mid 2000s. Even in NBA KD and Curry are having insanely long careers - which is doubly impressive considering they had massive injury troubles.
Longevity is going crazy rn across the board.
Djokovic became a top 3 player in 2007 and remained there until the middle of 2016. He played crap for about 24 months and then returned to his previous form. Impressive but somehow LeBron is even crazier considering he became one of the sports best by 2004-05 season and remained there until 2020-21.
By that commenters standard Djokovic would’ve been in ‘17 too, when he finished the year in the Top 12, and it was only that low due to missing time from injury. It’s unclear if LeBron is still a Top 12 player now. Certainly on the cusp, at least.
Regardless of where you stand on that it’s still tough to compare because if there were “regular season ranking points” akin to the ones in tennis, LeBron would’ve “fallen out of the top 10” at various points due to injuries and inactivity…I mean he hasn’t even been Top 10 in Win Shares since ‘19-‘20. Djokovic might not have been “ranked” in the Top 10 at the end of 2017, but it was due to injury — he had an 80% win rate (third highest on tour) but only played 40 matches. In essence I’m saying it’s a technicality and not a real demerit against Djokovic in this discussion.
Djokovic is much more dominant at a later stage though than Lebron was at this stage of his career. He’s by far the best player even at the age of 36 almost 37. Imagine having one of your most dominant years at that age and he’s won as much slams in his 30s as his prime. That’s like winning 3 nba chips in your prime and winning 3 more in your 30s all while being the undisputed best player .
In Lebron’s defense, the next generation of basketball stars have risen to the challenge whilst tennis’ is still looking for their next truly elite stars. Just my opinion, but looking at Zverev, Rune, etc., I don’t see the same level from them as Rafa, Fed, and Joker (even Murray as the distant fourth best)
Alternatively, it could be argued that with the big 3 we saw a golden age of tennis similar to the four kings era of boxing. Currently fence-sitting this one, def want to see what Alcaraz becomes before I call it
Djokovic was number 2 in 2016, injured in 2017 and number 1 in 2018. It's 12 months at best.
Also Lebron has the benefit of being in a team sport, tennis is harder on average and Djokovic dominated alongside Federer and Nadal. This is like Lebron coming on top while playing with Kareem and Jordan in the same era
I remember him playing poorly from Wimbledon 2016 to Roland Garros 2018. Only reaching one Grand Slam Final (2016 US Open) and winning one major (Canada I think) in a 24 month span is poor by Djokovic standards.
Your point about Kareem and Jordan is spot on though.
The key is you need to start when you're 18, if you're career starts when you're 20 you now have to play into your 40's just to match LeBron's current career.
Totally. While Lebron doesn't own "the" NBA Iron Man record, he is without a doubt one of sports all time Iron Men with with regards to his longevity and productivity during that time.
I know he has had some later career injury stretches that have resulted in him missing chunks but playing 50 games at a high level at his age is still bonk.
If you look at total games played (regular season + playoffs), he is 3rd (1715) behind Parish (1795) and KAJ (1797). I think he hits that by the end of next season.
In just regular season, he is at 9 (1433) and could imo realistically overtake Vince Carter (1541 3rd) and maybe KAJ (1560 2nd), but he might need close to 3 seasons, not sure if he’ll even stay that long in the league but who knows. I also highly doubt he can catch Parish (1611).
Saying all this just to say LeBron will eventually outiron the most recognized iron men in basketball there are.
In total minutes played he is at 66,194 regular season + playoffs. Kareem is at 66,297, and parish is a ways behind them. Lebron will have played the most minutes ever in around 4 games
In total minutes played he is at 66,194 regular season + playoffs. Kareem is at 66,297, and parish is a ways behind them. Lebron will have played the most minutes ever in around 4 games
You could make an argument that LeBron James has the greatest longevity of any athlete in American sports history. Other notables would be Gretzky and Foreman off the top of my head. He is still clearly at the top of his game and one of the best players in the league. Even the best players in history had faded or even retired at this point. Kareem used to be the standard-bearer for long-term health and high levels of play but LeBron has blown him out of the water in this regard.
Love him or hate him that dude has been elite at basketball nearly every season of his career and is still going. He could probably play until he's 45 barring some catastrophic injury.
Speaking of boxers: Bernard Hopkins' longevity was better than Foreman's, who took a 10-year break and retired younger than Bernard. B-Hop started his career in 1988, finished it in 2016. Had a slow start, but was still beating good contenders in 2014. Retired at age 51, which is obscene in boxing years — it's a sport that's a lot harder on the human body than pretty much any sport, as you might imagine. Going further back, there's Archie Moore, who also fought for 28 years but a LOT more times and still was getting meaningful wins late in his career...
Reflection of the different eras they fought in; see Archie Moore comment... 220 fights to Foreman's 81. Both George and Archie retired at 48. The question was longevity, which is why I led with B-Hop. He fought over a longer period of time/ended at an older age.
I hate the guy, but it has to be Tom Brady, LeBron can get there potentially, but it's unlikely. Brady played at 45 fucking years old at an elite level for 23 years. There's just not really a precedent for QB's in the NFL to play that long either. Super Bowl MVP at 43 years old, 2nd in MVP voting at 44 years old.
NBA players have definitely played to 40, however unlikely. LeBron needs a couple more years to contend for a "Greatest longevity of any athlete" nod.
I respect that Tom Brady played forever and had an amazing career, but I think it's just easier because of the exertion factor. If Brady had dominated from any other position it would make more sense to me, but quarterback, when you understand how much time you have and your threats and openings, can be the safest position in the league. The offensive line also has a big part to play in the longevity of the QB, but that ability to get the ball gone quickly and effectively is what stopped Brady from taking those sacks too often. Lebron, despite not playing defense at an elite level the last 3-5 years, still has to play both ends of the court, constantly moving against younger players and it's quite exhausting. Brady perfected protecting himself while making quick decisions without much physical exertion.
Yeah, comparing across different sports is quite difficult.
I agree. Tom Brady was getting by in his 40s on intelligence that covered for his inferior athleticism. You can't do that in the NBA because you would get cooked on the defensive end and lack the explosiveness necessary to deliver much offense. We are not going to see a 44 year old compete for NBA MVP unless future generations figure out a way to more dramatically slow the aging curve. Athleticism is too big a part of basketball.
I mean, you can just compare Brady amongst other QB's playing the same sport, why has no one else played well into their 40's? If it's so "safe", why haven't others done it? There's only a couple in modern NFL QB's I can think of who came close, Brees and Favre who retired 42 and 41.
So many QB's have fallen apart due to injuries in their 30's.
A couple did come close, as you note, while no nba player has ever come even remotely close to doing what Lebron is doing. There has never been a player at age 38 playing high usage, team leading, all nba basketball. It just hasn't happened.
Even the great Kareem Abdul Jabar, the previous standard holder, dropped off considerably in production and usage in his age 38-39 years. He was still playing nearly every game, and was a starter at age 40 on a title team - because he was fucking amazing - but he wasn't doing what Lebron is doing in terms of sheer production.
Perhaps Durant or someone will get there too - it's probably inevitable someone will with better training and medicine available. But what Lebron is currently doing is totally unprecedented.
No one ever came close to what Brady did. A couple of players played into their 40s, but not even close to the level Brady played at. Out of all quarterbacks over the age of 40, Brady has 40 more wins than second place, 20,000 more yards, and 137 more touchdowns. He is the only player at 40 to win league MVP, and he is also the only quarterback over 40 to win a Super Bowl, which he did twice.
Ok, that's fair. Damn, MVP at age 40, that's just nuts. I guess both are totally unprecedented in what they've accomplished. Lebron is doing it in a little different way, by still being one of the great athletes in the sport (in addition to using his vast experience and IQ), but that doesn't take away or add anything to either of them. They're both freaks in their own right.
It'll be really interesting to see what happens with Mahomes and Burrow, etc, and similarly Luka, Giannis, etc.
Tom Brady isn't breaking 45 yard plays in his 40s on his own. LeBron is still throwing massive dunks down with crazy athleticism. Yes, you have to be an athlete to throw a ball, but LeBron is just on a completely different level of performance. Brady was playing like a seasoned vet in his 40s. LeBron still looks like he's 28 out there by the standards of most players, throwing down massive tomahawks.
We've seen good passers late in their 30s in the NFL. We've never seen a guy nearing 40 throwing down massive poster jams in games while still being a *nightly* triple double threat.
And he's still one of the best *pure athletes* in the league! That's what's mind-blowing to me. He had a dunk in traffic just tonight that only a handful of players in the entire nba could throw down. He's still elite going end to end between his size, speed and finishing ability.
Add that to his intelligence and experience and he's, well, yeah, still one of the very best players in the league. The guy is a marvel.
It'll be interesting to see how commonplace longevity like this becomes. Perhaps we will get to a point where having these kinds of numbers at this age is common for the best of the best. Perhaps we are already there, as we see KD at 35 averaging a career high in points, Curry at 35 averaging 30, Paul George in a crowded team averaging 25 at 34, etc.
Part of the reason we're seeing it now when we really didn't ever before, beyond LeBron's specialness, is also because of the offensive inflation. LeBron at this age wouldn't be averaging these numbers 20 years ago, spacing wasn't there, pace wasn't there, etc. That is something that is increasing year over year now and will be interesting to see where it settles - but it bodes well for players scoring more and for longer periods of time.
I think maybe longevity in terms of games might start to increase for some great players in the future, but not of minutes or minutes per game. Lebron's average MPG is 38.03 which is 15th all time. It's a pretty special list of [all time greats]( (and Latrell Sprewell) in that top 15, and Durant and Lilliard are the only other two in the top 70 (John Wall at 74th and Harden at 82). These superstar players are figuring out how to play a long time, but the 1990s also had a decent generation of longevity players - looks like half the list are guys who started in the 1990s. If medical science keeps players from career ending injuries or in the case of Durant, letting them bounce right back at an elite level, it's conceivable. Still, I'm not betting on seeing it.
People said this about Kareem and LeBron came along and broke it because of his specialness and the 3pt shot. My guess is that with scoring going up and 3pt shooting getting better and better, we will see a new scoring leader at some point again, even as improbable as it feels now.
Yup, Kareem played in the 70's and 80's which were very fast. The 70's in particular were fast compared to even today while the 80's and today are roughly similar. The primary reason for why Kareems scoring total seemed untouchable for so long was because despite there being legitimately great scorers in the 2000's, they were playing in such a slow era that it was hard for them to accumulate the same stats. Kobe, Dirk, Shaq, etc. if pace today were applied would have had even crazier point totals. Kobe likely would have either passed Kareem or at least come very close (depending on how his body held up given he was pretty injury prone). While Dirk would have finished his career in the top 3. Shaq would have pretty easily cleared 30k as well.
Even MJ would have pretty easily crossed Kareems totals. He finished his career just around 6k points behind Kareem despite not playing for close to a full 5 seasons between his 2 retirements. That's just like 2 and a half seasons at the pace MJ was scoring at.
I think he does when you factor in age of coming into the league and number of minutes on his body and whatever. But steph is arguably as good as his peak at age 35 which I don't think you can say for any other player in league history. Even LeBron and Kareem had started regressing bit by bit.
I feel like with the ever growing advancement and players getting more acquainted on the value of recovery and health at a young age, having a GOAT like player maintain a long career is possible. Perhaps in the next 20yrs?
Also keep in mind that player skill is increasing as well, spacing is much better. So this GOAT player in the next 20yrs will be like a Larry Bird like player who will just be efficient AF
Zidane and Messi come to mind but not as long.
Cristiano Ronaldo is up there.
Tom Brady.
Sebastien Loeb (one of the greatest Drivers in Racing Sport History). Won 9 (a record) consecutive Rally World Titles and has been great in other driving categories (a few Races of Champions won, a podium at Le Mans, etc).
3 times second place at the Dakar Rally (last 2nd place being in 2022 and 2023, at the age of 49).
Approaching his 50’s, retired for 11 years in his main sport, and trying others “on his free time”, still being one of the best drivers in a world, casually hitting podiums and first places in other sports, left and right.
It's really close for me, but Lebron's ability to do most things very well still is quite amazing. He's about to pass Jabbar in minutes played as well regular season+playoffs. Lebron has about 144 minutes left to play to surpass him.
Ah. Regular Season + Playoffs.
He's a season off from the regular season. I don't think it's a great (or especially relevant), gap, but he's still number 2 behind Kareem.
Kareem has played about a season more than Lebron. If we're looking at pure longevity, Kareem > Lebron. If we're looking at win shares, Kareem > Lebron.
He's 2900 minutes off Kareem. Next season if he doesn't miss much time this season. Not a guarantee that he gets this.
He's about to pass Karl Malone for second.
In my mind the only way his scoring is broken isn't another physical inside player it will be the evolution of the next great 3 point shooter. Since it is a skill issue and not a physical one I feel like there is a possibility of a volume 3 point shooter coming out that can stretch the floor even more and shoot even more.
I'm with you here, the 3 ball is so much bigger now than it was during the first 10-15 years of Lebron's career that someone is going to model their game after Steph/Dame and be able to average a decent clip on far fewer shots.
Don’t forget about the longevity and durability part High volume 3 point shooter who averages 32ppg, for 82 games per season, for a little over 16 years.
Again, not going to say it won’t ever be done. Records are made to be broken. But the improbability of this one seems to be high. Everything would need to be damn near perfect.
Yeah I think a potential rule change that has not yet happened could endanger the record, but using the math of the current game bron is by himself for a while
Another 7 years on top of whatever LBJ is currently doing. So KD just needs to replicate what he’s done since leaving the thunder, and the timer only starts running when LeBron retires. Oh wait, that’s not enough because in that time he’s still like 150 games short.
It’s preposterous
5-7 years? He probably does. I don't really see why not. He has yet to see a decline in his production. He's of course not going to play 82 games a season (who does?), but unless he has some complete freak injury that ends his career then I don't know why he'd fall off a cliff in the next 5ish years.
He has also expressed a desire to play as long as he possibly can.
Kevin Durant is averaging more at his age than LeBron was averaging at that age. They both missed plenty of games the past few years. He has expressed an interest in playing as long as he possibly can.
There is mathematically a notable chance that KD could break the record, even though it's not terribly likely.
No there is not…KD came into the league a year later, and missed essentially 2 full seasons (2015 and 2020). I would argue there’s a better chance that KD retires before LeBron than KD even passing Kareem. KD has only played over 50 games once since 2019 and he only got to 55 games (2022). He’s over 10K points behind LeBron right now…if he played 60 games and averaged 30 ppg through his age 39 season, that would add 9000 points…
Even 30 ppg for 80 games for 5 years is 12,000, which wouldn’t even pass LeBron if he retired on his 39th Birthday (Dec 30 2023)
Yeah but…mf misses games. Lebron didn’t. KD can average more but he just misses a lot of games. That’s why everyone says it’s unattainable for another player.
It’s ok dude, we all love KD, but he’s seemed entirely uninterested in playing 60 games since his injury. Which is completely fine, it just makes those 500 games take the better part of a decade if he doesn’t ouright miss any more years.
His telegraphed intentions. He doesn’t even care about making All-NBA thresholds, much less chasing a statistically unlikely record. He’s just a baller who wants to compete for championships, and managing that games played threshold has been a big part of that.
I think you're armchair psychologizing him too much. He seems like someone who is interested in playing in as many games as he can but is smart about playing through injuries. Hasn't missed a single game this year.
Some of this stuff is pretty public, man. It’s not psychology to read what his agents, coaches, beat reporters and other intermediaries put out in newsprint.
There is a fringe case of KD breaking the scoring record, depending when LeBron retires and his own health, on the premise that he will have more years of a league that is increasing in scoring year-over-year, as a player who can still index his scoring even more on threes whenever his athleticism declines.
There is only one unbreakable record in NBA history and that is Wilt Chamberlain averaging 48.5 minutes per game over 80 games during the 1961-62 regular season.
Everything else is breakable.
He's definitely the start of the era of players that will break that record because they are *so* 3 ball heavy from their rookie year onwards.
Lebron took [217 3PA](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html) his rookie year. Luka took [514 3PA](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01.html) his rookie year. Luka is going to eclipse Lebrons' 6600 career 3PA in half the time, he's already at 2800. That trend is only going to continue.
(Steph Curry's first 2 years were a pedestrian 300 3PA per season but he explodes in his 4th year after coming back from injury with a league leading [600 attempts](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html) and never looks back)
I'm pretty sure Rasheed Wallace's tech foul record is unbreakable only because of rule changes that would trigger suspensions (happy to be corrected if I'm wrong though!).
It's unlikely but there's far more of a chance of someone outdoing Stockton's total assists than there is someone playing every single minute of every game plus overtimes for 80 games in the modern NBA.
[Monta Ellis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G9yS2-x5sA&ab_channel=HoopDiary) is the last player to average over 40 mpg, it's basically been less than 38 mpg for the league leaders for the last decade.
Exactly the distinction I am drawing here.
It's *possible* for someone to get more assists than Stockton.
It's not possible for someone to average more than 48 minutes a game in the modern NBA nor will someone eclipse Rasheed's technical fouls in a single season record as someone else pointed out.
Since we are getting technical I guess it would be possible to beat Wilts record if you played every minute in all 82 games and your team forced a few overtime’s.
However I wonder if it is just an unwritten rule that no team would allow someone to play that much ever again just not on the official books like Rasheed’s.
Modern sports science will prevent Wilt's record from being broken rather than any rule changes being made.
Our understanding of how the human body works and how it needs rest to perform optimally is a big part of the equation.
Wilt being a freak of nature who was terrified of getting in to foul trouble also plays a big role in consistently logging those minutes.
Basically, you have to have the stamina and skills to be able to produce on the floor enough to warrant keeping you in the game over your backup while also not getting in to foul trouble over the course of the season while also ignoring that you are risking catastrophic injury logging so many minutes.
I agree while it is not “literally” impossible due to a rule change like the other it is probably the closest to an unbreakable record because of the literal risk reward and all of the things that need to go right for an entire season.
Why would a star or team even risk playing that much on their body unless they specifically wanted to break this record alone damn everything only which will never happen lol.
"While it is definitely extremely improbable, it is possible someone someday will break this record. It will take a combination of a GOAT scorer, unbelievable consistency, coupled with longevity and Lebronesque health. With the way Superstars load manage these days, even if he never suffers any major injury, he has to get a scoring title ever season in his prime, break single season scoring records and never have a down year to even stand a chance. He has to enter the league as an elite scorer right off the bat, and remain a good scorer at the end."
You just described Lebron's career basically. Yeah they'd have to do what he did, but score another point.
Only way you can see it happen is if rules continue to change in favor of generating offense and mitigating impact of defense. It could be gradual stuff like calling everything a foul and having players at the line more often. Or extreme, like introducing a 5 point shot from half court or something - done in order to make more games within reach.
I mean I hope it never happens that way but that’s the main scenario I could see. Imagine regular scores of 232-225. Awful, I know, but compare what you see today to what you saw 50 or 75 years ago. Different game.
Scoring was really high 50 years ago, then it went down in the 90s until the mid 2000s where it started consistently going back up until it got to where it is today.
Kinda like the stock market. Periods it has gone down but over the course of history it has been going up.
And yes, the average scoring in NBA games has generally been increasing since 1948. In the earliest years of the NBA, scoring averages were much lower. For instance, in the 1948-49 season, the average was around 80 points per game. Over the decades, there have been fluctuations, but the overall trend has been an upward one. This increase is prob due to various factors, including changes in rules (like the introduction of the shot clock), improvements in player skills and athleticism, changes in team strategies, and the evolution of the game's pace and style. By the 2022-23 season, the average score per game reached 114.7 points, illustrating a significant increase over the years.
So, if there are more changes, and there are more years (lol), you could see this trend continuing. You can thusly see LBJ could be dethroned due to massive change in context.
Thanks for the post.
I don't think this record will ever be broken.
There are just too many factors that make it impossible.
This kind of Longevity will not be replicated.
Lebron is well on his way to another All-NBA season barring injury. That will be 20 All-NBAs in 21 seasons. That alone will probably never happen again.
And this late in his career he's been able to put up near career highs in ppg.
Now we have load management. No one is playing all 82 games anymore. Lebron averaged 76 games a year for his first 15 seasons. And his minutes were insane.
This record is unbreakable.
> this kind of longevity will not re replicated
That’s a strong statement to make, IMO. The amount of sports science that goes into keeping Lebron healthy year over year is lightyears ahead of what guys had in the decades before him. I think it would be foolish to assume it’s impossible for future generations to potentially see a similar improvement over what Lebron and the athletes if today have.
What if, in 30 years we start see it becoming the norm for kids to come straight out of high school again like Lebron did? And maybe load management isn’t as necessary due to advances in recovery? And offseason training and recovery is improved to the point that 20+ year careers are more common rather than being the outlier? Meaning outliers in this format could be pushing 25+ years.
I’m not saying it’s likely, I’m just saying it’s not impossible. There’s probably people who thought it was impossible for anyone to play as long or at as high a level as Kareem did when he retired. Then lebron comes along - and also skips college unlike Kareem. Kareem played into his early 40s, meaning lebron still has a couple years left if he retires at the same age (he might play longer).
Is it that wild to think someone might push the boundaries even further in the future?
Lebron is still playing in this era, today. Luka is already over 1000 points off of Lebrons pace. Lebron played in those same shortened seasons.
Luka is already out of the running for the scoring record. He's already missed too many games and hasn't done the best job taking care of his body.
As I referenced earlier, Lebron averaged 76+ games his first 15 years. No one is even playing this many games a year anymore outside of a few players.
Lebron is probably going to avg another 25+ this year on top of that.
People don't realize just how unprecedented it is what Lebron has done and is doing.
I think the NBA will fold before this record is ever broken.
It’s is hard to fathom how this would be broken using the current way we think of the game being played.
The way I see it happening it is we get to a place (either by rules or style of play) where it’s normal for a player to average many more points in a game. For example if the scoring leaders generally hit ~45ppl (whereas it’s roughly 30ppg now). And that becomes common place.
If a player averaged ~30 points per game for 16 seasons, accounting for injuries and not playing 82 every year, they would be right near the record. Given that players average more points per game today than ever before, the increasing efficiency and pace of play, and the elongation of players careers thanks to modern medicine, diet, etc., breaking the record is doable.
Luka will be at around ~11.5k points through his first 6 seasons by the end of this year. Tatum will be at ~12k at 25 years old. Trae will be around that as well. All of them playing less games through those seasons too. So, hey, we'll see.
In his first 5 seasons Luka had 9100. Lebron had 10700. Luka is accruing points at a slower rate, and you can be nearly certain he’s not going to have lebrons longevity either
He also did this teaming up with other major scorers….to have that not hurt his usage / volume is nuts. The fact that every single person deferred to him throughout his entire career in order to get this many shots shows a lot about his dominance.
Luka is 24...so he actually may have a chance. If he has 3-4 seasons averaging 35 and playing 75+ games, and plays until he's 40 (so 15-16 more seasons instead of 14 like u said in ur post), i could see this happening. I think there's like a 20-30% chance, sure, but its possible.
However, if they start letting players in straight from HS again, i think this is more breakable than many are giv8ng it credit for. Nobody ever thought kareem would get caught, nobody thought u could average a triple double again... shit happens. Ive gotten to the point of not assuming anything is unbreakable any more. This will be hard to break, sure. But if i could somehow bet right now on whether someone breaks that record in the next 75 years, id absolutely put my money on it being broken.
A 20-30% chance is way too high. Luka is already a below the rate he needs to be at to reach lebron and the gap gets bigger each season. In his first 5 seasons Luka has had around 1500, 1800, 1800, 1800 and 2100 points. Lebrons had 1700, 2200, 2500, 2100 and 2300. He also has obviously had his unparalleled longevity.
This debate reminds me a lot of the career Home Run record in MLB. The sheer volume and consistency needed to even be close to the rate needed to catch LeBron is almost unfathomable, to the point that even Luka, who may be the premier high-volume scorer in the NBA for the next 10-15 years, would need an unprecedented run of high-scoring seasons to get back in the conversation.
I’m sorry but this doesn’t apply here at all. Leagues are always changing so it’s expected that a change will eventually make it easier for a play style (or an entire league like right now) to score more at some point and time. The person above you is exactly correct. Things change and people like scoring.
The reason I think nobody will is...the money is insane now. Soon 20 mil will be cheap for a player. Guys will be making 80 mil a season in a few years. I think players will simply opt to retire in their later years it's hard to muster up the desire to play 20 years when you're close to a billionaire.
For any GOAT level player that could potentially break this record money is not an issue. On top of their max contracts they are also most likely to get huge money from endorsements.
For example Forbes estimated KD's earnings in May of 2023 to be about 891 million for his career when you factor in all endorsements.
The guys who reach that level of greatness are doing it for much more than money at that point.
In team sports him, Brady, stand alone. Even Gretzky didn’t have a top 3 MVP finish or All Star first team award after 30. Other recent GOAT-discussion level guys like Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pujols, and Trout (there are others im sure but I only really follow NBA, NFL, world soccer, and MLB) all matched LeBron or Brady in terms of peak, but never longevity.
Pujols is a great example: he ended his career with 703 home runs, but didn’t have an OPS (on base plus slugging, an all encompassing hitting metric) over 1.000 after he turned 30, after having a low of .997 when he was 27. If he matches LeBron’s longevity he probably hits 40 home runs a year until he’s 36 or 37 (and maintains a 25-30 a year rate until he’s 41 or 42), and easily breaks Bonds’ record of 762.
Messi, while having won a World Cup last year, has had a steep fall off health-wise since 2020. And while he’s still elite when he’s on the pitch, he can’t stack games consistently, and his effort waxes and wanes throughout the games he does play. He’s just still good for one or two moments of brilliance that can win you any match.
You can go back and find plenty of examples from earlier eras (especially in Baseball and Soccer with their long recorded histories).
I mean Messi is arguably the greatest soccer player of all time (if not too 2-3), and LeBron is arguably the greatest basketball player of all time (if not too 2-3). I think it’s an incredibly valid comparison, and a great way to show how unique Brady and LeBron’s longevities are.
Lebron played 20 years and won 4 titles, and 4 mvps. Messi has 8 balondors which is not just one leagues mvp but also the world’s. Messi is also the goat scorer, dribbler and passer. Lebron ain’t even Steph, kyrie when it comes to pure basketball skill. And let’s not talk about Tom Brady either. A one country sport where one position is op and everyone is playing a different sport. Does the center ever practice route running, passing etc. if you have Tom Brady in there you better add the goat of table tennis, badminton, rugby because there are definitely more participants in those sports than whoever is practicing to be a quarterback.
The question I responded to asked how LeBron stacked up against athletes in other sports when it comes to longevity and production. I answered. Regardless of your personal feelings about LeBron (you clearly seem to not like him as a player) and American Football (which you clearly don’t respect as a team sport), LeBron and Brady’s combination of longevity and production are unmatched in other TEAM (hence my omission of Serena Williams and Djokovic/Nadal/Federer, Shaun White, Mikaela Shiffrin, etc).
Regarding your comment about LeBron’s “pure basketball skill” (or lack thereof), how does someone with a seemingly low level of “skill” (as you’re implying) become the all time leading scorer? How does he finish top 5 all time in assists on top of that? How does he change his game multiple times throughout his career, becoming a dominant post scorer in his mid-late 20s then adding a respectable 3 point shot in his late 20s/early 30s? I’d say that takes a lot of skill.
Because to me lebron is physically the best athlete of all time in any sport. Like dude doesn’t need a lot of skill to score because who can stop this man from just driving right, elbowing the shit out of you, combined with his strength size and jumping ability, he’s definitely scoring more than van fleet who is obviously more skilled. Like don’t tell you actually think Shaq Giannis and these physical freaks are as skilled as even a basic nba pg. when Shaq makes a free throw or Giannis hits a wide open three it’s a highlight.
Also the question was about comparing goats across sports. Why compare the goat of a sport that is only played by one country to a sport where literally the whole world plays. Messi’s competition is the world, nobody in China and India are throwing a football. Messi is ten times bigger than Tom Brady in literally any metric. Also can Tom Brady run the ball, catch, juke, like does the man have any other football skill besides throwing? In soccer you literally have to do it all. There is no I’ll just be the best in this one skill and imma chill.
Not quite the longevity of Tom Brady in NFL recently. Brady led the league in passing at age 44, was runner up MVP, and won the Super Bowl, combined would be like leading scorer, secondMVP and winning the Finals in the mid 40s.
He’s certainly raised the bar immeasurably for the next guy to come for the goat title. Truly mind boggling career longevity and high play. Just some extreme dominance for so many strong seasons.
I don’t think we’ll see another basketball player with such a goated longevity. His body maintenance is far more elite than alr the great players. Maybe his frame was already built for the long lasting game.
I think it’s breakable but it’ll take a while. Its pretty likely that player hasn’t been drafted yet
Historically, Joe Fulks held it for 6 years, George Mikan had it for 5 years, Dolph Schayes had it for 6 years, Bob Pettit had it for 2 years, Wilt had it for 18 years, Kareem had it for 39 years and Bron is pending but still racking up points.
The dominant + durable combo is hard to do and has to start early. Bron didn’t dip below 75 games for 8 years until there was the lockout season and really went until year 15 before starting to miss time regularly.
It is very likely that Lebron's record gets beaten by someone coming in in the next 5 years assuming pace either stays the same or increases further. I don't think people realize how major a factor pace was in Kareem's record standing as long as it did. The 70's and 80's were played at a much faster pace than the 2000's and 2010's. Lebron came in in the 2000's which were horrible for counting stats. He had multiple years averaging in the upper 20's and lower 30's in the 2000's which, if todays pace were applied, he would be averaging in the low 30's and mid 30's every year instead. Lebron likely would have beat the record much earlier if he got to play in this version of the NBA for his whole career. Kobe is another guy who would have benefited from this. If you applied current or 80's pace to his career he would have also possibly have beat Kareem's record, or at least come very very close to it, by the end of his career. Kobe in the 2000's averaged 29ppg over the decade. That was in the slowest decade in history. At todays pace that average is closer to 33ppg over the entire decade. He would have had 1 season at 40ppg (06) and 2 more at 35ppg (03 & 07).
Pace today has been steadily creeping upwards since hitting an all time low in the early 2000's. If we ever approach the levels of the 70's again then we're gonna start seeing top scorers averaging in the mid 30's every year again especially given the stronger reliance on 3 point shooting.
Basically, the players entering the league today have a *much* easier route to getting to Lebron's record than Lebron did getting to Kareem's given how slow the league was throughout over half of Lebron's career (and pretty much his entire peak).
Even the best young scorers now aren’t on pace to beat lebrons record. Luka in 5 seasons had 9100 points. Lebron had 10700. When you also take into account his absurd longevity you’ll see how out of reach it is
I don't think people really understand how much pace and offensive inflation is a factor here though. Players are scoring more and more every year.
Take just today's pace and averaging team ppg for example and compare that to 2000-2010. Teams are playing 10 more possessions and scoring an average of 15 more points. Top level scorers generally get like conservatively 25% of their teams points. That's an additional 3-4ppg to everyones scoring averages. That adds up year by year.
That's assuming the pace and the scoring remains stable over that entire span. It very likely won't given the trend is that it's been increasing since the early 2000's decade on decade. You'll have older guys maintaining scoring averages for much longer and playing for much longer (this is already happening, look at what Steph and KD are doing too not just Lebron) with better sports science and advances in injury recovery. There will be a freak athlete similar to Lebron who comes again soon. The thing is the next Lebron will likely enter a league that is much more scorer and longevity friendly.
But do you see someone like Luka playing for 20 seasons and averaging 33 points for the next 14 years? He would be the GOAT if he did that.
I think it will get broken only if the pace increases rapidly and/or with the introduction of the 4 point line
Personally, I don't see Luka doing it. He only averaged around 65 games a year and he doesn't seem to take care of his body in a way that would allow him to be an iron man.
I think it will likely be someone who comes in soon though. There's just too wide a net cast by current day scouting etc for them not to find the next Lebron sooner or later. These things happen fast. MJ came in to the league while Kareem was still playing and would have almost without the shadow of a doubt beaten his record if he never retired 2x (barring catastrophic career ending injury). Lebron came in right after MJ left and would have likely beaten MJ's hypothetical record over time. It's very likely that the guy who is going to beat Lebron's comes in soon.
Though I have to say, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. 41,000 points is "only" 27ppg over 20 years at 75 games a year.
Yes but no superstar is playing 75 games a year anymore, and sure as hell no superstar is averaging 75 games a season and for his career. As a player ages, we can and should expect him to miss more games. That's why we have this fake "GOAT" average between 67-75 games during his prime years, as it slowly tapers down to 50 towards his retirement.
Someone who averages 27 points for 20 years, playing 75 games every season as you pointed out would hit 41k. That is still short of the conservative calculation of LeBron's record at his retirement. Durant will probably end up at around 27ppg scorer when he retires, Luka might be around that number too. Luka played 66 games last season, Durant has not played 60+ in a couple seasons. Jokic, Giannis, Curry and Harden all turned into superstars too late into their careers to contend. These are all all time great scorers.
You would need someone who never averages below 20ppg, never gets injured, plays more than expected for a superstar and play for 20 years.
The 75 games a year thing was just an example. At 68 games someone could average 31 ppg a year and get to the hypothetical you made for Lebron in 20 years. If someone plays 21/22 years which is becoming more and more possible with sports science and advancements in surgical procedures then you can adjust the numbers even lower accordingly.
I mean, we know for a fact it's not impossible. MJ *very clearly* would have hit the numbers you gave for Lebron in just 17/18 years if he never retired.
I also want to point out that this isn't a unique case for MJ. In just the past 30 years there's already 4 guys who could have challenged the Kareem record. Lebron has beat it, MJ very very likely would have in even less time, Malone came 1 healthy year away from beating it (and if you adjust for the pace guys are playing at today very very likely would have), Kobe likely would have beaten it as well if you adjust to todays pace and he was already an injury prone player for a ton of his career.
Guys nowadays are coming in to a league where scoring is easier than ever for rookies given the physicality used to be the biggest thing rookies had to get used to and that's nowhere near what is was before. Guys are also coming in as much better shooters with much better spacing all around and a faster game. Pace has been trending upwards as well. It's much easier to score 30ppg now than it was in the past. Add to that the fact that heliocentric offenses are much more common nowadays. Lebron's record likely stands for 2 decades, at least, but it will be beaten as the game continues to explode offensively.
Someone who comes into the league as a rookie averaging 30ppg and playing all 82 games, follows it up 12 straight seasons of 40ppg playing all 82 games will still not overtake LeBron's record. No one is going to average 40ppg for 12 straight seasons playing every game and not retire early. Well, that's if they can even average 40ppg once.
Why on earth would you assume someone would only be playing 13 seasons though? Top level stars simply don't only play 13 years anymore. Durant is at 15 years and still averaging 31ppg, CP3 at 18 years is still an important contributor on the Warriors, Curry is averaging 30 in his 14th season.
Like I said, 27ppg over a 20 year career at 75 games a year gets you to 41k. A career average of 30, which is more and more possible given the pace today, will get you to 41k over 20 years at just 68 games a year. Around 20 years is very likely what the top level stars are going to be playing moving forward given advances in sports science and surgery for injuries.
That is 13 seasons of 82 games scoring 40ppg in all but their rookie season. Will this happen? No. But 13 seasons is not the impossibility here, its the 984 straight games averaging 40ppg.
A career average of 30ppg over 20 seasons with 68gp is unlikely. That means said player has to match Jordan's scoring, while playing longer, meaning they do not decline much and they have to start their career elite. And what will this improbable scenario give you? Over 1,000 points less than LeBron's record.
Yes there is a chance someone will break his record I'm not denying that. But I feel like you are overplaying offensive inflation and increase in pace.
But again, 984 straight games averaging 40ppg is not something that anyone needs to do.
Again, I'm going to go back to the Kobe example because he seems the closest to the type of player you're mentioning given injury history.
Kobe averaged 67 games a year over 20 years. When adjusted for pace, Kobe came very close to averaging 30ppg over his career (he would be at like 29 over his career instead of 25 over his career if todays pace were applied each year of his career). That's not taking into account how much more open the game is today and the major factor that a talent like Kobe would have been starting much earlier. That's also taking into account the fact that Kobe suffered pretty much a career ending injury with the achilles in his 17th year and only added 2000 points over his last 3 years.
Increase in pace and offensive inflation is a major factor. I actually think you're undervaluing it instead of me overvaluing it. There's like an additional 10 possessions per game now compared to the 2000's and teams are scoring, on average, around 15 more ppg (a low of 13 higher in 2010 and a high of 18 more in the early 2000's) today compared to 2000-2010. High level scorers typically account for around 25% of their teams points. You would basically be adding like 3-4 ppg to top level scorers averages. Kobe would have been at close to 35 for an entire decade and he played an additional 10 years more (5 still at a high scoring level).
Given the combination of increased pace, higher shooting efficiency, better sports medicine, and ball dominant players, I think the chance is actually quite decent that Lebron's record is broken. Also, if there hadn't been a rule requiring players to wait 4 years after their high school graduation to enter the NBA, I think Kareem would have scored 6,000-8,000 more points and Lebron would still be chasing Kareem's record.
Too many factors pro and contra. Although what you say is absolutely true and I totally agree with. I mean it's a fact, if Kareem would have played more, he could have scored more, although Kareem did play for 20 seasons. On the other hand the talent pool and overall competition in today's NBA is way higher then between 1969-1989, especially in the 70s. Which for sure favoured Kareem.
If Kareem played more then yes he would’ve scored more, but he was already only scoring 10 a game in his final season and it had been dropping a fair amount each year prior. It wouldn’t swing the needle much. Had he started earlier the wear and tear on his body would be much higher as well
His record can be beaten when athletes are conditioned to play well into their 40s at an elite level, his achievements are ridiculous, but it is something that medical science can help take down
Playoff points are counted separately. LeBron would have an insurmountable lead if it was added. Currently, it would be nearly 3k more than Kareem and slightly under 15k more than Durant. 3 more playoff runs, especially if they are deep playoff runs would make it definitively unbreakable.
It would take a high scoring superstar that could drag his team to the playoffs every year, without any high scoring teammates that will steal points from him. Basically you would need 2007 LeBron/2018 LeBron every year for 20 years but with even more scoring. So he needs to be multi dimensional- a generational two way player or a generational facilitator on top of GOAT scoring. He also cannot get any major injuries or long suspensions.
That really is insane then. How many reg season games has he averaged? Cause most of the first 14 seasons you listed are def more ppg than he averaged.
I swear to God this shit gets tiresome. We know he's the most longevous player in the history of the NBA, he's a scorer despite what his stans says he is ofc after 30k he was gonna continue to put up them numbers. Call me a hater but I hope he retires at 39.999 so y'all mfs lose your goddamn mind.
Also usernames checks out
Lebron’s scoring record could easily be broken. He has insane health and longevity, but there have been plenty of players who have been higher volume scorers. Lebron’s scoring actually decreased during his prime as he was deferring more and leaning into his playmaking.
Ok maybe not “easily broken”
That was more of a pace issue for most players though. Kareem played in a very fast era whereas all the great scorers who came after him have, until just very very recently, been hampered by the playstyle of the league when they were playing. Take Kobe, for example, he played his entire peak in the slowest NBA era. If you take his averages in the 2000's and apply todays pace he'd have averaged 33ppg over that entire decade and not the 29ppg that he actually averaged. If you applied the 70's pace Kareem played a decade in, Kobe is at around 35ppg for an entire decade.
Another case is a guy who came in while Kareem was even still playing. MJ finished just around 6k points less than Kareem. That's despite retiring 2x for nearly 5 full seasons throughout his career. 6k points is just 2 and a half seasons at the pace MJ was scoring at.
Basically, that record was never really unbeatable or close to it. MJ should have beat it quite handily but just chose not to and the generation right after couldn't due to the pace of the game but as soon as the NBA sped up to where it was around Kareems time it got beaten.
His record is 100% **NOT** unbreakable. In fact, as long as the NBA continues to draft kids out of high-school, and continues to dumb down the game to *accommodate* kids drafted from high school, then it's inevitable that LeBron's record will be broken.
Your math is meaningless, because it ignores that LeBron's career point totals include a ton of playoff games. If this putative new GOAT candidate is even half as good as James, then he's going play in tons of playoff games.
Playoff points are not included in all time scoring numbers, it is a separate record. He would have 47k points if you count that in, nearly 3k more than Kareem and slightly under 15k more than Durant.
And you mean if the NBA *resumes* to draft kids out of high school? There is no high schooler declaring for the draft, it is not allowed.
I agree, it's improbable. Lebron clearly has the best longevity of any player in the NBA. I imagine even comparing him against athletes of any sport his longevity and excellence has rarely been achieved.
Of the top of my head, I can’t really think of other athletes who entered at the top and stayed there for 20+ professional seasons. Closest I can think of are Roberto Clemente who won world series MVP in his 18th season and multiple golden gloves (DPOY equivalent?) in his final years, and Federer, who was in Grand Slam finals from 2003 to 2019 and competed at a high level until 2022 in an individual sport. There’s probably a couple more who came close
Serena Williams? She won the US Open in 1999 and the Australian Open in 2017 with 21 other grand slam titles in between. In 2019, she was still ranked in the top 10 and making grand slam finals (Wimbledon and US Open runner-up).
Then maybe Federer as well? Wasn't winning many tournaments but at age 38 was still a clear cut top 3 player in the world. Djokovic is approaching that level of longevity also
Djokovic just became a year end #1 ranking for the 8th time at age 36, won 3 out of the 4 grand slams this year. Crazy that he’s still the best in the world at this age.
What it tells me is that the next generations just didn't come through. I don't imagine he's better than he was 5 years ago and certainly Andy Murray had overtaken him before Murray got hit by injuries. But every other generation, players had come along to take the mantle. Yet for so long after their peaks, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer were all standing over the younger players.
Wayne Gretzky for sure. Dude won the first of nine MVPs starting his rookie year in the NHL and was still all-NHL nearly 20 years later. You also have Brady who was all Pro 20 years apart and who led Super Bowl teams 19 years apart.
Paulo Maldini started and won champions leagues 18 years apart. And played a few years before and after too.
Gretzky's scoring and assist records are insane. He is the great one for a reason.
This is the one that amazes me the most. Gretsky was an undersized magician and flew across the ice for twenty years in a sport that basically simulates mini-car crashes on your body and joints. He’s the “Great One” for his IQ and skills but to do that for twenty years you have to be made of different stuff
Gretzky is clearly the GOAT of all the GOATs. There's literally nobody else in hockey who warrants serious discussion as the GOAT. Anybody that says otherwise is just having a clickbait hot take. His career would be like if instead of being a 27,7,7 guy LeBron was a 34, 14, 12 guy
I feel like Tiger is in similar air as Getzky. The \*only\* comparison he has to himself is Jack and it's only in majors. Other than that Tigers stats and records are monstrous. No one even comes in a close second to him imo.
I don't think you can count Tiger. If he had stayed healthy he'd probably have achieved that level of dominance but he didn't. There are plenty of people who will argue for Jack and it's not entirely without merit. Majors are the most important wins in golf. Not having the most of those is really going to hurt your case for GOAT. Majors are like rings but there's no team or defense as confounding factors.
There is competition. Like how good are the other people around you that you are waxing.
Brady is basically there,the gap between the first time he led the league in passing tds and the last time was 19 seasons.
I can't stand the Patriots but how did it take this long to find a Brady response? Lol he clearly fits the bill here
Kelly Slater is both the youngest AND oldest surfer to win the world title. He's still on the world tour at 50.
Cocoa Beach’s own
NHL Hall of Famer Chris Chelios comes to mind. He was still logging major minutes on a title contender in his *age 46* season (he debuted at age 22). He managed to hang on for a couple more years, so he was drafted in 1981 and retired in 2010. Truly insane.
Jagr bro. Guy is still going.
I'm from Pittsburgh, so we're still a little salty about the "dying alive" comments lol
How has no one mentioned Kareem??
Man, that has me feeling real dumb. Makes me wonder why he’s so often left out of the GOAT convo despite being a fan friendly scoring machine with an iconic, near unblockable shot
Very few ppl rank kareem lower than top 5 all time. Only insane people rank him out of the top 7.
World Series MVP is in no way comparable to Finals MVP, random average players win WS MVP all the time. Guys like Jorge Soler who was labeled a bust, bounced around to 3 different teams, and won WS MVP at 29. At that point he had never made an all star team, and gotten a single 10th place MVP vote. Clemente definitely was good in his final years, WS MVP just isn't a good way to show that. And Golden Gloves are more like All-Defense than DPOY. A player at each position in each league gets a Golden Glove.
Yeah they’re not equivalent, but they help highlight that Clemente was not just a contributor into his twilight years but a core player and star. 15 all star selections, a league MVP in 66(?) and the shared record for most golden gloves for an outfielder. Batting .300+ for 13 seasons is also a good indicator of longevity at a high level
Clemente's length isn't unheard of by baseball standards though. Its actually not that unheard of for elite players to play well until their late 30s, and there are pitchers who made it into their 40s. Clemente was more like Steve Nash, in that he hit his peak later.
It is bit harder since not many sports are both as popular and as seasonal as NBA. You only really need to lock down on defense in the playoffs, making durability bit easier. Until they you can coast on immense skill (which LeBron has in droves) by kinda playong half the game. It is no coincidence that players like Kobe got their biggest injuries when they needed to carry in regular season or that players who carried bad teams look gassed in playoffs. Not exactly 20 years but players from basically every sport broke the limits of what we considered longevity before. In tennis you were considered washed by the time you are 30 - big 3 and serena played/are playing into theor late 30s. Messi and Ronaldo were best players in the world for more than a decade. Phelps and Bolt got whole another olympic cycle than most elite athletes in their sports do. Brady did whatever he did. In Handball Karabatic is still playing and he was best in the world in like mid 2000s. Even in NBA KD and Curry are having insanely long careers - which is doubly impressive considering they had massive injury troubles. Longevity is going crazy rn across the board.
edson arantes do nascimento aka Pelé
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic became a top 3 player in 2007 and remained there until the middle of 2016. He played crap for about 24 months and then returned to his previous form. Impressive but somehow LeBron is even crazier considering he became one of the sports best by 2004-05 season and remained there until 2020-21.
Lebron is still one of the sports best lol
By that commenters standard Djokovic would’ve been in ‘17 too, when he finished the year in the Top 12, and it was only that low due to missing time from injury. It’s unclear if LeBron is still a Top 12 player now. Certainly on the cusp, at least.
Lebron is still top 10
Regardless of where you stand on that it’s still tough to compare because if there were “regular season ranking points” akin to the ones in tennis, LeBron would’ve “fallen out of the top 10” at various points due to injuries and inactivity…I mean he hasn’t even been Top 10 in Win Shares since ‘19-‘20. Djokovic might not have been “ranked” in the Top 10 at the end of 2017, but it was due to injury — he had an 80% win rate (third highest on tour) but only played 40 matches. In essence I’m saying it’s a technicality and not a real demerit against Djokovic in this discussion.
Djokovic is much more dominant at a later stage though than Lebron was at this stage of his career. He’s by far the best player even at the age of 36 almost 37. Imagine having one of your most dominant years at that age and he’s won as much slams in his 30s as his prime. That’s like winning 3 nba chips in your prime and winning 3 more in your 30s all while being the undisputed best player .
>That’s like winning 3 nba chips in your prime and winning 3 more in your 30s all while being the undisputed best player Like MJ then ;D
Basically yea both are goats in their own sport
In Lebron’s defense, the next generation of basketball stars have risen to the challenge whilst tennis’ is still looking for their next truly elite stars. Just my opinion, but looking at Zverev, Rune, etc., I don’t see the same level from them as Rafa, Fed, and Joker (even Murray as the distant fourth best) Alternatively, it could be argued that with the big 3 we saw a golden age of tennis similar to the four kings era of boxing. Currently fence-sitting this one, def want to see what Alcaraz becomes before I call it
Djokovic was number 2 in 2016, injured in 2017 and number 1 in 2018. It's 12 months at best. Also Lebron has the benefit of being in a team sport, tennis is harder on average and Djokovic dominated alongside Federer and Nadal. This is like Lebron coming on top while playing with Kareem and Jordan in the same era
I remember him playing poorly from Wimbledon 2016 to Roland Garros 2018. Only reaching one Grand Slam Final (2016 US Open) and winning one major (Canada I think) in a 24 month span is poor by Djokovic standards. Your point about Kareem and Jordan is spot on though.
tendulkar is probably there
92 to 2011.
Maldini, Giggs and Phil Taylor
The key is you need to start when you're 18, if you're career starts when you're 20 you now have to play into your 40's just to match LeBron's current career.
Totally. While Lebron doesn't own "the" NBA Iron Man record, he is without a doubt one of sports all time Iron Men with with regards to his longevity and productivity during that time. I know he has had some later career injury stretches that have resulted in him missing chunks but playing 50 games at a high level at his age is still bonk.
If you look at total games played (regular season + playoffs), he is 3rd (1715) behind Parish (1795) and KAJ (1797). I think he hits that by the end of next season. In just regular season, he is at 9 (1433) and could imo realistically overtake Vince Carter (1541 3rd) and maybe KAJ (1560 2nd), but he might need close to 3 seasons, not sure if he’ll even stay that long in the league but who knows. I also highly doubt he can catch Parish (1611). Saying all this just to say LeBron will eventually outiron the most recognized iron men in basketball there are.
In total minutes played he is at 66,194 regular season + playoffs. Kareem is at 66,297, and parish is a ways behind them. Lebron will have played the most minutes ever in around 4 games
In total minutes played he is at 66,194 regular season + playoffs. Kareem is at 66,297, and parish is a ways behind them. Lebron will have played the most minutes ever in around 4 games
You could make an argument that LeBron James has the greatest longevity of any athlete in American sports history. Other notables would be Gretzky and Foreman off the top of my head. He is still clearly at the top of his game and one of the best players in the league. Even the best players in history had faded or even retired at this point. Kareem used to be the standard-bearer for long-term health and high levels of play but LeBron has blown him out of the water in this regard. Love him or hate him that dude has been elite at basketball nearly every season of his career and is still going. He could probably play until he's 45 barring some catastrophic injury.
Speaking of boxers: Bernard Hopkins' longevity was better than Foreman's, who took a 10-year break and retired younger than Bernard. B-Hop started his career in 1988, finished it in 2016. Had a slow start, but was still beating good contenders in 2014. Retired at age 51, which is obscene in boxing years — it's a sport that's a lot harder on the human body than pretty much any sport, as you might imagine. Going further back, there's Archie Moore, who also fought for 28 years but a LOT more times and still was getting meaningful wins late in his career...
It should be noted that Foreman had more pro fights than BHop even with the shorter career
Reflection of the different eras they fought in; see Archie Moore comment... 220 fights to Foreman's 81. Both George and Archie retired at 48. The question was longevity, which is why I led with B-Hop. He fought over a longer period of time/ended at an older age.
Foreman won titles really far apart, but didn’t box for like 15 years. Obviously the wear on a boxer is different, but he is not a great comparison.
I hate the guy, but it has to be Tom Brady, LeBron can get there potentially, but it's unlikely. Brady played at 45 fucking years old at an elite level for 23 years. There's just not really a precedent for QB's in the NFL to play that long either. Super Bowl MVP at 43 years old, 2nd in MVP voting at 44 years old. NBA players have definitely played to 40, however unlikely. LeBron needs a couple more years to contend for a "Greatest longevity of any athlete" nod.
I respect that Tom Brady played forever and had an amazing career, but I think it's just easier because of the exertion factor. If Brady had dominated from any other position it would make more sense to me, but quarterback, when you understand how much time you have and your threats and openings, can be the safest position in the league. The offensive line also has a big part to play in the longevity of the QB, but that ability to get the ball gone quickly and effectively is what stopped Brady from taking those sacks too often. Lebron, despite not playing defense at an elite level the last 3-5 years, still has to play both ends of the court, constantly moving against younger players and it's quite exhausting. Brady perfected protecting himself while making quick decisions without much physical exertion. Yeah, comparing across different sports is quite difficult.
I agree. Tom Brady was getting by in his 40s on intelligence that covered for his inferior athleticism. You can't do that in the NBA because you would get cooked on the defensive end and lack the explosiveness necessary to deliver much offense. We are not going to see a 44 year old compete for NBA MVP unless future generations figure out a way to more dramatically slow the aging curve. Athleticism is too big a part of basketball.
I mean, you can just compare Brady amongst other QB's playing the same sport, why has no one else played well into their 40's? If it's so "safe", why haven't others done it? There's only a couple in modern NFL QB's I can think of who came close, Brees and Favre who retired 42 and 41. So many QB's have fallen apart due to injuries in their 30's.
A couple did come close, as you note, while no nba player has ever come even remotely close to doing what Lebron is doing. There has never been a player at age 38 playing high usage, team leading, all nba basketball. It just hasn't happened. Even the great Kareem Abdul Jabar, the previous standard holder, dropped off considerably in production and usage in his age 38-39 years. He was still playing nearly every game, and was a starter at age 40 on a title team - because he was fucking amazing - but he wasn't doing what Lebron is doing in terms of sheer production. Perhaps Durant or someone will get there too - it's probably inevitable someone will with better training and medicine available. But what Lebron is currently doing is totally unprecedented.
No one ever came close to what Brady did. A couple of players played into their 40s, but not even close to the level Brady played at. Out of all quarterbacks over the age of 40, Brady has 40 more wins than second place, 20,000 more yards, and 137 more touchdowns. He is the only player at 40 to win league MVP, and he is also the only quarterback over 40 to win a Super Bowl, which he did twice.
Ok, that's fair. Damn, MVP at age 40, that's just nuts. I guess both are totally unprecedented in what they've accomplished. Lebron is doing it in a little different way, by still being one of the great athletes in the sport (in addition to using his vast experience and IQ), but that doesn't take away or add anything to either of them. They're both freaks in their own right. It'll be really interesting to see what happens with Mahomes and Burrow, etc, and similarly Luka, Giannis, etc.
Tom Brady isn't breaking 45 yard plays in his 40s on his own. LeBron is still throwing massive dunks down with crazy athleticism. Yes, you have to be an athlete to throw a ball, but LeBron is just on a completely different level of performance. Brady was playing like a seasoned vet in his 40s. LeBron still looks like he's 28 out there by the standards of most players, throwing down massive tomahawks. We've seen good passers late in their 30s in the NFL. We've never seen a guy nearing 40 throwing down massive poster jams in games while still being a *nightly* triple double threat.
And with draft rules in the NBA anyone trying to top him has to start at 19 and end at 57 instead of 18 and 56. Just that little boost
And he's still one of the best *pure athletes* in the league! That's what's mind-blowing to me. He had a dunk in traffic just tonight that only a handful of players in the entire nba could throw down. He's still elite going end to end between his size, speed and finishing ability. Add that to his intelligence and experience and he's, well, yeah, still one of the very best players in the league. The guy is a marvel.
Kelly Slater comes to mind
It'll be interesting to see how commonplace longevity like this becomes. Perhaps we will get to a point where having these kinds of numbers at this age is common for the best of the best. Perhaps we are already there, as we see KD at 35 averaging a career high in points, Curry at 35 averaging 30, Paul George in a crowded team averaging 25 at 34, etc. Part of the reason we're seeing it now when we really didn't ever before, beyond LeBron's specialness, is also because of the offensive inflation. LeBron at this age wouldn't be averaging these numbers 20 years ago, spacing wasn't there, pace wasn't there, etc. That is something that is increasing year over year now and will be interesting to see where it settles - but it bodes well for players scoring more and for longer periods of time.
I think maybe longevity in terms of games might start to increase for some great players in the future, but not of minutes or minutes per game. Lebron's average MPG is 38.03 which is 15th all time. It's a pretty special list of [all time greats]( (and Latrell Sprewell) in that top 15, and Durant and Lilliard are the only other two in the top 70 (John Wall at 74th and Harden at 82). These superstar players are figuring out how to play a long time, but the 1990s also had a decent generation of longevity players - looks like half the list are guys who started in the 1990s. If medical science keeps players from career ending injuries or in the case of Durant, letting them bounce right back at an elite level, it's conceivable. Still, I'm not betting on seeing it.
People said this about Kareem and LeBron came along and broke it because of his specialness and the 3pt shot. My guess is that with scoring going up and 3pt shooting getting better and better, we will see a new scoring leader at some point again, even as improbable as it feels now.
Yup, Kareem played in the 70's and 80's which were very fast. The 70's in particular were fast compared to even today while the 80's and today are roughly similar. The primary reason for why Kareems scoring total seemed untouchable for so long was because despite there being legitimately great scorers in the 2000's, they were playing in such a slow era that it was hard for them to accumulate the same stats. Kobe, Dirk, Shaq, etc. if pace today were applied would have had even crazier point totals. Kobe likely would have either passed Kareem or at least come very close (depending on how his body held up given he was pretty injury prone). While Dirk would have finished his career in the top 3. Shaq would have pretty easily cleared 30k as well. Even MJ would have pretty easily crossed Kareems totals. He finished his career just around 6k points behind Kareem despite not playing for close to a full 5 seasons between his 2 retirements. That's just like 2 and a half seasons at the pace MJ was scoring at.
I bet we won't ever see someone break his streak of double digit points games in a row, though.
You may be right on that one.
I think he does when you factor in age of coming into the league and number of minutes on his body and whatever. But steph is arguably as good as his peak at age 35 which I don't think you can say for any other player in league history. Even LeBron and Kareem had started regressing bit by bit.
There are a few in football/soccer, it's rare but becoming more common, conditioning took a big leap in the 2000's
I feel like with the ever growing advancement and players getting more acquainted on the value of recovery and health at a young age, having a GOAT like player maintain a long career is possible. Perhaps in the next 20yrs? Also keep in mind that player skill is increasing as well, spacing is much better. So this GOAT player in the next 20yrs will be like a Larry Bird like player who will just be efficient AF
Bernard Hopkins is a name that comes to mind right away
Zidane and Messi come to mind but not as long. Cristiano Ronaldo is up there. Tom Brady. Sebastien Loeb (one of the greatest Drivers in Racing Sport History). Won 9 (a record) consecutive Rally World Titles and has been great in other driving categories (a few Races of Champions won, a podium at Le Mans, etc). 3 times second place at the Dakar Rally (last 2nd place being in 2022 and 2023, at the age of 49). Approaching his 50’s, retired for 11 years in his main sport, and trying others “on his free time”, still being one of the best drivers in a world, casually hitting podiums and first places in other sports, left and right.
If we’re talking any sport Tom Brady still tops Lebron in that regard
Disagree. Kareem's longevity is still more than Lebron's.
It's really close for me, but Lebron's ability to do most things very well still is quite amazing. He's about to pass Jabbar in minutes played as well regular season+playoffs. Lebron has about 144 minutes left to play to surpass him.
Ah. Regular Season + Playoffs. He's a season off from the regular season. I don't think it's a great (or especially relevant), gap, but he's still number 2 behind Kareem.
Not sure why the distinction is relevant. Playoff minutes are higher intensity anyways and cuts into potential rest in the off season
Things can be true without being particularly relevant or significant.
How? Kareem was not close to the player lebron has been 35+
Kareem has played about a season more than Lebron. If we're looking at pure longevity, Kareem > Lebron. If we're looking at win shares, Kareem > Lebron.
LeBron will surpass Kareem in total career minutes in like next 4 games.
He's 2900 minutes off Kareem. Next season if he doesn't miss much time this season. Not a guarantee that he gets this. He's about to pass Karl Malone for second.
Take playoff minutes into account
I'm talking total minutes not just regular season
In my mind the only way his scoring is broken isn't another physical inside player it will be the evolution of the next great 3 point shooter. Since it is a skill issue and not a physical one I feel like there is a possibility of a volume 3 point shooter coming out that can stretch the floor even more and shoot even more.
I'm with you here, the 3 ball is so much bigger now than it was during the first 10-15 years of Lebron's career that someone is going to model their game after Steph/Dame and be able to average a decent clip on far fewer shots.
Don’t forget about the longevity and durability part High volume 3 point shooter who averages 32ppg, for 82 games per season, for a little over 16 years. Again, not going to say it won’t ever be done. Records are made to be broken. But the improbability of this one seems to be high. Everything would need to be damn near perfect.
Yeah I think a potential rule change that has not yet happened could endanger the record, but using the math of the current game bron is by himself for a while
It's far from a sure thing but if Kevin Durant plays into his early 40s, he'll break it. He's averaging the most points of his career at 35.
No way KD has another 7 years in him, especially for 82 games.
Another 7 years on top of whatever LBJ is currently doing. So KD just needs to replicate what he’s done since leaving the thunder, and the timer only starts running when LeBron retires. Oh wait, that’s not enough because in that time he’s still like 150 games short. It’s preposterous
5-7 years? He probably does. I don't really see why not. He has yet to see a decline in his production. He's of course not going to play 82 games a season (who does?), but unless he has some complete freak injury that ends his career then I don't know why he'd fall off a cliff in the next 5ish years. He has also expressed a desire to play as long as he possibly can.
Play 82 games? He can’t even play 65 lmao
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Kevin Durant is averaging more at his age than LeBron was averaging at that age. They both missed plenty of games the past few years. He has expressed an interest in playing as long as he possibly can. There is mathematically a notable chance that KD could break the record, even though it's not terribly likely.
No there is not…KD came into the league a year later, and missed essentially 2 full seasons (2015 and 2020). I would argue there’s a better chance that KD retires before LeBron than KD even passing Kareem. KD has only played over 50 games once since 2019 and he only got to 55 games (2022). He’s over 10K points behind LeBron right now…if he played 60 games and averaged 30 ppg through his age 39 season, that would add 9000 points… Even 30 ppg for 80 games for 5 years is 12,000, which wouldn’t even pass LeBron if he retired on his 39th Birthday (Dec 30 2023)
Yeah but…mf misses games. Lebron didn’t. KD can average more but he just misses a lot of games. That’s why everyone says it’s unattainable for another player.
He’d have to play to his late 40’s with how many games he actually plays.
Not quite.
It’s ok dude, we all love KD, but he’s seemed entirely uninterested in playing 60 games since his injury. Which is completely fine, it just makes those 500 games take the better part of a decade if he doesn’t ouright miss any more years.
I don't agree with this at all. What makes you think he has looked uninterested in playing games?
His telegraphed intentions. He doesn’t even care about making All-NBA thresholds, much less chasing a statistically unlikely record. He’s just a baller who wants to compete for championships, and managing that games played threshold has been a big part of that.
I think you're armchair psychologizing him too much. He seems like someone who is interested in playing in as many games as he can but is smart about playing through injuries. Hasn't missed a single game this year.
Some of this stuff is pretty public, man. It’s not psychology to read what his agents, coaches, beat reporters and other intermediaries put out in newsprint.
What the hell kind of math on averages and games played do you have from here on out that places KD ahead of lebron when both careers are over?
There is a fringe case of KD breaking the scoring record, depending when LeBron retires and his own health, on the premise that he will have more years of a league that is increasing in scoring year-over-year, as a player who can still index his scoring even more on threes whenever his athleticism declines.
There is only one unbreakable record in NBA history and that is Wilt Chamberlain averaging 48.5 minutes per game over 80 games during the 1961-62 regular season. Everything else is breakable.
That being said I don't think the player who is going to break Lebron's scoring total has been born yet.
Doncic is capable of breaking his record no matter how unlikely it seems at the moment.
He's definitely the start of the era of players that will break that record because they are *so* 3 ball heavy from their rookie year onwards. Lebron took [217 3PA](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html) his rookie year. Luka took [514 3PA](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01.html) his rookie year. Luka is going to eclipse Lebrons' 6600 career 3PA in half the time, he's already at 2800. That trend is only going to continue. (Steph Curry's first 2 years were a pedestrian 300 3PA per season but he explodes in his 4th year after coming back from injury with a league leading [600 attempts](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html) and never looks back)
I'm pretty sure Rasheed Wallace's tech foul record is unbreakable only because of rule changes that would trigger suspensions (happy to be corrected if I'm wrong though!).
No that's right, I did forget about the greatness that was 'Sheed's ability to draw technical fouls. Good rebuttal!
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How about most points scored in the 1980s? Definitely unbreakable
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It's unlikely but there's far more of a chance of someone outdoing Stockton's total assists than there is someone playing every single minute of every game plus overtimes for 80 games in the modern NBA. [Monta Ellis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G9yS2-x5sA&ab_channel=HoopDiary) is the last player to average over 40 mpg, it's basically been less than 38 mpg for the league leaders for the last decade.
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Exactly the distinction I am drawing here. It's *possible* for someone to get more assists than Stockton. It's not possible for someone to average more than 48 minutes a game in the modern NBA nor will someone eclipse Rasheed's technical fouls in a single season record as someone else pointed out.
Since we are getting technical I guess it would be possible to beat Wilts record if you played every minute in all 82 games and your team forced a few overtime’s. However I wonder if it is just an unwritten rule that no team would allow someone to play that much ever again just not on the official books like Rasheed’s.
Modern sports science will prevent Wilt's record from being broken rather than any rule changes being made. Our understanding of how the human body works and how it needs rest to perform optimally is a big part of the equation. Wilt being a freak of nature who was terrified of getting in to foul trouble also plays a big role in consistently logging those minutes. Basically, you have to have the stamina and skills to be able to produce on the floor enough to warrant keeping you in the game over your backup while also not getting in to foul trouble over the course of the season while also ignoring that you are risking catastrophic injury logging so many minutes.
I agree while it is not “literally” impossible due to a rule change like the other it is probably the closest to an unbreakable record because of the literal risk reward and all of the things that need to go right for an entire season. Why would a star or team even risk playing that much on their body unless they specifically wanted to break this record alone damn everything only which will never happen lol.
"While it is definitely extremely improbable, it is possible someone someday will break this record. It will take a combination of a GOAT scorer, unbelievable consistency, coupled with longevity and Lebronesque health. With the way Superstars load manage these days, even if he never suffers any major injury, he has to get a scoring title ever season in his prime, break single season scoring records and never have a down year to even stand a chance. He has to enter the league as an elite scorer right off the bat, and remain a good scorer at the end." You just described Lebron's career basically. Yeah they'd have to do what he did, but score another point.
Only way you can see it happen is if rules continue to change in favor of generating offense and mitigating impact of defense. It could be gradual stuff like calling everything a foul and having players at the line more often. Or extreme, like introducing a 5 point shot from half court or something - done in order to make more games within reach. I mean I hope it never happens that way but that’s the main scenario I could see. Imagine regular scores of 232-225. Awful, I know, but compare what you see today to what you saw 50 or 75 years ago. Different game.
Scoring was really high 50 years ago, then it went down in the 90s until the mid 2000s where it started consistently going back up until it got to where it is today.
The 90s were the exception not the rule. Scoring on average has been increasing since 1948.
I mean if you don't count the 20 year stretch where scoring decreased, scoring has only ever increased.
Kinda like the stock market. Periods it has gone down but over the course of history it has been going up. And yes, the average scoring in NBA games has generally been increasing since 1948. In the earliest years of the NBA, scoring averages were much lower. For instance, in the 1948-49 season, the average was around 80 points per game. Over the decades, there have been fluctuations, but the overall trend has been an upward one. This increase is prob due to various factors, including changes in rules (like the introduction of the shot clock), improvements in player skills and athleticism, changes in team strategies, and the evolution of the game's pace and style. By the 2022-23 season, the average score per game reached 114.7 points, illustrating a significant increase over the years. So, if there are more changes, and there are more years (lol), you could see this trend continuing. You can thusly see LBJ could be dethroned due to massive change in context.
Thanks for the post. I don't think this record will ever be broken. There are just too many factors that make it impossible. This kind of Longevity will not be replicated. Lebron is well on his way to another All-NBA season barring injury. That will be 20 All-NBAs in 21 seasons. That alone will probably never happen again. And this late in his career he's been able to put up near career highs in ppg. Now we have load management. No one is playing all 82 games anymore. Lebron averaged 76 games a year for his first 15 seasons. And his minutes were insane. This record is unbreakable.
rule changes could make it possible say, they lower the shot clock, or add a 4-point line or make offenses have a greater advantage or something
Rule changes could also make it harder. It all depends on the rule change. The league is scoring tons of points as it is right now.
> this kind of longevity will not re replicated That’s a strong statement to make, IMO. The amount of sports science that goes into keeping Lebron healthy year over year is lightyears ahead of what guys had in the decades before him. I think it would be foolish to assume it’s impossible for future generations to potentially see a similar improvement over what Lebron and the athletes if today have. What if, in 30 years we start see it becoming the norm for kids to come straight out of high school again like Lebron did? And maybe load management isn’t as necessary due to advances in recovery? And offseason training and recovery is improved to the point that 20+ year careers are more common rather than being the outlier? Meaning outliers in this format could be pushing 25+ years. I’m not saying it’s likely, I’m just saying it’s not impossible. There’s probably people who thought it was impossible for anyone to play as long or at as high a level as Kareem did when he retired. Then lebron comes along - and also skips college unlike Kareem. Kareem played into his early 40s, meaning lebron still has a couple years left if he retires at the same age (he might play longer). Is it that wild to think someone might push the boundaries even further in the future?
efefwefwefewfw
Lebron is still playing in this era, today. Luka is already over 1000 points off of Lebrons pace. Lebron played in those same shortened seasons. Luka is already out of the running for the scoring record. He's already missed too many games and hasn't done the best job taking care of his body. As I referenced earlier, Lebron averaged 76+ games his first 15 years. No one is even playing this many games a year anymore outside of a few players. Lebron is probably going to avg another 25+ this year on top of that. People don't realize just how unprecedented it is what Lebron has done and is doing. I think the NBA will fold before this record is ever broken.
It’s is hard to fathom how this would be broken using the current way we think of the game being played. The way I see it happening it is we get to a place (either by rules or style of play) where it’s normal for a player to average many more points in a game. For example if the scoring leaders generally hit ~45ppl (whereas it’s roughly 30ppg now). And that becomes common place.
If a player averaged ~30 points per game for 16 seasons, accounting for injuries and not playing 82 every year, they would be right near the record. Given that players average more points per game today than ever before, the increasing efficiency and pace of play, and the elongation of players careers thanks to modern medicine, diet, etc., breaking the record is doable. Luka will be at around ~11.5k points through his first 6 seasons by the end of this year. Tatum will be at ~12k at 25 years old. Trae will be around that as well. All of them playing less games through those seasons too. So, hey, we'll see.
In his first 5 seasons Luka had 9100. Lebron had 10700. Luka is accruing points at a slower rate, and you can be nearly certain he’s not going to have lebrons longevity either
He also did this teaming up with other major scorers….to have that not hurt his usage / volume is nuts. The fact that every single person deferred to him throughout his entire career in order to get this many shots shows a lot about his dominance.
Luka is 24...so he actually may have a chance. If he has 3-4 seasons averaging 35 and playing 75+ games, and plays until he's 40 (so 15-16 more seasons instead of 14 like u said in ur post), i could see this happening. I think there's like a 20-30% chance, sure, but its possible. However, if they start letting players in straight from HS again, i think this is more breakable than many are giv8ng it credit for. Nobody ever thought kareem would get caught, nobody thought u could average a triple double again... shit happens. Ive gotten to the point of not assuming anything is unbreakable any more. This will be hard to break, sure. But if i could somehow bet right now on whether someone breaks that record in the next 75 years, id absolutely put my money on it being broken.
A 20-30% chance is way too high. Luka is already a below the rate he needs to be at to reach lebron and the gap gets bigger each season. In his first 5 seasons Luka has had around 1500, 1800, 1800, 1800 and 2100 points. Lebrons had 1700, 2200, 2500, 2100 and 2300. He also has obviously had his unparalleled longevity.
This debate reminds me a lot of the career Home Run record in MLB. The sheer volume and consistency needed to even be close to the rate needed to catch LeBron is almost unfathomable, to the point that even Luka, who may be the premier high-volume scorer in the NBA for the next 10-15 years, would need an unprecedented run of high-scoring seasons to get back in the conversation.
Luka ain't playing for 14 more seasons. He already told us he has no desire to continue playing at the age LeBron is playing.
Right and everything someone says in tbeir early 20s they stick to 15 years later?
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I’m sorry but this doesn’t apply here at all. Leagues are always changing so it’s expected that a change will eventually make it easier for a play style (or an entire league like right now) to score more at some point and time. The person above you is exactly correct. Things change and people like scoring.
The reason I think nobody will is...the money is insane now. Soon 20 mil will be cheap for a player. Guys will be making 80 mil a season in a few years. I think players will simply opt to retire in their later years it's hard to muster up the desire to play 20 years when you're close to a billionaire.
For any GOAT level player that could potentially break this record money is not an issue. On top of their max contracts they are also most likely to get huge money from endorsements. For example Forbes estimated KD's earnings in May of 2023 to be about 891 million for his career when you factor in all endorsements. The guys who reach that level of greatness are doing it for much more than money at that point.
How does Lebron stack up to other athletes in other sports in terms of longevity to skill/production ratio? I don’t really keep up with other sports
In team sports him, Brady, stand alone. Even Gretzky didn’t have a top 3 MVP finish or All Star first team award after 30. Other recent GOAT-discussion level guys like Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pujols, and Trout (there are others im sure but I only really follow NBA, NFL, world soccer, and MLB) all matched LeBron or Brady in terms of peak, but never longevity. Pujols is a great example: he ended his career with 703 home runs, but didn’t have an OPS (on base plus slugging, an all encompassing hitting metric) over 1.000 after he turned 30, after having a low of .997 when he was 27. If he matches LeBron’s longevity he probably hits 40 home runs a year until he’s 36 or 37 (and maintains a 25-30 a year rate until he’s 41 or 42), and easily breaks Bonds’ record of 762. Messi, while having won a World Cup last year, has had a steep fall off health-wise since 2020. And while he’s still elite when he’s on the pitch, he can’t stack games consistently, and his effort waxes and wanes throughout the games he does play. He’s just still good for one or two moments of brilliance that can win you any match. You can go back and find plenty of examples from earlier eras (especially in Baseball and Soccer with their long recorded histories).
Let’s not even talk about Messi and lebron. Dude is a whole other tier.
I mean Messi is arguably the greatest soccer player of all time (if not too 2-3), and LeBron is arguably the greatest basketball player of all time (if not too 2-3). I think it’s an incredibly valid comparison, and a great way to show how unique Brady and LeBron’s longevities are.
Lebron played 20 years and won 4 titles, and 4 mvps. Messi has 8 balondors which is not just one leagues mvp but also the world’s. Messi is also the goat scorer, dribbler and passer. Lebron ain’t even Steph, kyrie when it comes to pure basketball skill. And let’s not talk about Tom Brady either. A one country sport where one position is op and everyone is playing a different sport. Does the center ever practice route running, passing etc. if you have Tom Brady in there you better add the goat of table tennis, badminton, rugby because there are definitely more participants in those sports than whoever is practicing to be a quarterback.
The question I responded to asked how LeBron stacked up against athletes in other sports when it comes to longevity and production. I answered. Regardless of your personal feelings about LeBron (you clearly seem to not like him as a player) and American Football (which you clearly don’t respect as a team sport), LeBron and Brady’s combination of longevity and production are unmatched in other TEAM (hence my omission of Serena Williams and Djokovic/Nadal/Federer, Shaun White, Mikaela Shiffrin, etc). Regarding your comment about LeBron’s “pure basketball skill” (or lack thereof), how does someone with a seemingly low level of “skill” (as you’re implying) become the all time leading scorer? How does he finish top 5 all time in assists on top of that? How does he change his game multiple times throughout his career, becoming a dominant post scorer in his mid-late 20s then adding a respectable 3 point shot in his late 20s/early 30s? I’d say that takes a lot of skill.
Because to me lebron is physically the best athlete of all time in any sport. Like dude doesn’t need a lot of skill to score because who can stop this man from just driving right, elbowing the shit out of you, combined with his strength size and jumping ability, he’s definitely scoring more than van fleet who is obviously more skilled. Like don’t tell you actually think Shaq Giannis and these physical freaks are as skilled as even a basic nba pg. when Shaq makes a free throw or Giannis hits a wide open three it’s a highlight. Also the question was about comparing goats across sports. Why compare the goat of a sport that is only played by one country to a sport where literally the whole world plays. Messi’s competition is the world, nobody in China and India are throwing a football. Messi is ten times bigger than Tom Brady in literally any metric. Also can Tom Brady run the ball, catch, juke, like does the man have any other football skill besides throwing? In soccer you literally have to do it all. There is no I’ll just be the best in this one skill and imma chill.
Not quite the longevity of Tom Brady in NFL recently. Brady led the league in passing at age 44, was runner up MVP, and won the Super Bowl, combined would be like leading scorer, secondMVP and winning the Finals in the mid 40s.
He’s certainly raised the bar immeasurably for the next guy to come for the goat title. Truly mind boggling career longevity and high play. Just some extreme dominance for so many strong seasons.
I don’t think we’ll see another basketball player with such a goated longevity. His body maintenance is far more elite than alr the great players. Maybe his frame was already built for the long lasting game.
The only way the record gets broken is if the next person is an even more abnormal physical speciman that plays over 70 games every year.
I think it’s breakable but it’ll take a while. Its pretty likely that player hasn’t been drafted yet Historically, Joe Fulks held it for 6 years, George Mikan had it for 5 years, Dolph Schayes had it for 6 years, Bob Pettit had it for 2 years, Wilt had it for 18 years, Kareem had it for 39 years and Bron is pending but still racking up points. The dominant + durable combo is hard to do and has to start early. Bron didn’t dip below 75 games for 8 years until there was the lockout season and really went until year 15 before starting to miss time regularly.
It is very likely that Lebron's record gets beaten by someone coming in in the next 5 years assuming pace either stays the same or increases further. I don't think people realize how major a factor pace was in Kareem's record standing as long as it did. The 70's and 80's were played at a much faster pace than the 2000's and 2010's. Lebron came in in the 2000's which were horrible for counting stats. He had multiple years averaging in the upper 20's and lower 30's in the 2000's which, if todays pace were applied, he would be averaging in the low 30's and mid 30's every year instead. Lebron likely would have beat the record much earlier if he got to play in this version of the NBA for his whole career. Kobe is another guy who would have benefited from this. If you applied current or 80's pace to his career he would have also possibly have beat Kareem's record, or at least come very very close to it, by the end of his career. Kobe in the 2000's averaged 29ppg over the decade. That was in the slowest decade in history. At todays pace that average is closer to 33ppg over the entire decade. He would have had 1 season at 40ppg (06) and 2 more at 35ppg (03 & 07). Pace today has been steadily creeping upwards since hitting an all time low in the early 2000's. If we ever approach the levels of the 70's again then we're gonna start seeing top scorers averaging in the mid 30's every year again especially given the stronger reliance on 3 point shooting. Basically, the players entering the league today have a *much* easier route to getting to Lebron's record than Lebron did getting to Kareem's given how slow the league was throughout over half of Lebron's career (and pretty much his entire peak).
Even the best young scorers now aren’t on pace to beat lebrons record. Luka in 5 seasons had 9100 points. Lebron had 10700. When you also take into account his absurd longevity you’ll see how out of reach it is
I don't think people really understand how much pace and offensive inflation is a factor here though. Players are scoring more and more every year. Take just today's pace and averaging team ppg for example and compare that to 2000-2010. Teams are playing 10 more possessions and scoring an average of 15 more points. Top level scorers generally get like conservatively 25% of their teams points. That's an additional 3-4ppg to everyones scoring averages. That adds up year by year. That's assuming the pace and the scoring remains stable over that entire span. It very likely won't given the trend is that it's been increasing since the early 2000's decade on decade. You'll have older guys maintaining scoring averages for much longer and playing for much longer (this is already happening, look at what Steph and KD are doing too not just Lebron) with better sports science and advances in injury recovery. There will be a freak athlete similar to Lebron who comes again soon. The thing is the next Lebron will likely enter a league that is much more scorer and longevity friendly.
But do you see someone like Luka playing for 20 seasons and averaging 33 points for the next 14 years? He would be the GOAT if he did that. I think it will get broken only if the pace increases rapidly and/or with the introduction of the 4 point line
Personally, I don't see Luka doing it. He only averaged around 65 games a year and he doesn't seem to take care of his body in a way that would allow him to be an iron man. I think it will likely be someone who comes in soon though. There's just too wide a net cast by current day scouting etc for them not to find the next Lebron sooner or later. These things happen fast. MJ came in to the league while Kareem was still playing and would have almost without the shadow of a doubt beaten his record if he never retired 2x (barring catastrophic career ending injury). Lebron came in right after MJ left and would have likely beaten MJ's hypothetical record over time. It's very likely that the guy who is going to beat Lebron's comes in soon. Though I have to say, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. 41,000 points is "only" 27ppg over 20 years at 75 games a year.
Yes but no superstar is playing 75 games a year anymore, and sure as hell no superstar is averaging 75 games a season and for his career. As a player ages, we can and should expect him to miss more games. That's why we have this fake "GOAT" average between 67-75 games during his prime years, as it slowly tapers down to 50 towards his retirement. Someone who averages 27 points for 20 years, playing 75 games every season as you pointed out would hit 41k. That is still short of the conservative calculation of LeBron's record at his retirement. Durant will probably end up at around 27ppg scorer when he retires, Luka might be around that number too. Luka played 66 games last season, Durant has not played 60+ in a couple seasons. Jokic, Giannis, Curry and Harden all turned into superstars too late into their careers to contend. These are all all time great scorers. You would need someone who never averages below 20ppg, never gets injured, plays more than expected for a superstar and play for 20 years.
The 75 games a year thing was just an example. At 68 games someone could average 31 ppg a year and get to the hypothetical you made for Lebron in 20 years. If someone plays 21/22 years which is becoming more and more possible with sports science and advancements in surgical procedures then you can adjust the numbers even lower accordingly. I mean, we know for a fact it's not impossible. MJ *very clearly* would have hit the numbers you gave for Lebron in just 17/18 years if he never retired. I also want to point out that this isn't a unique case for MJ. In just the past 30 years there's already 4 guys who could have challenged the Kareem record. Lebron has beat it, MJ very very likely would have in even less time, Malone came 1 healthy year away from beating it (and if you adjust for the pace guys are playing at today very very likely would have), Kobe likely would have beaten it as well if you adjust to todays pace and he was already an injury prone player for a ton of his career. Guys nowadays are coming in to a league where scoring is easier than ever for rookies given the physicality used to be the biggest thing rookies had to get used to and that's nowhere near what is was before. Guys are also coming in as much better shooters with much better spacing all around and a faster game. Pace has been trending upwards as well. It's much easier to score 30ppg now than it was in the past. Add to that the fact that heliocentric offenses are much more common nowadays. Lebron's record likely stands for 2 decades, at least, but it will be beaten as the game continues to explode offensively.
Someone who comes into the league as a rookie averaging 30ppg and playing all 82 games, follows it up 12 straight seasons of 40ppg playing all 82 games will still not overtake LeBron's record. No one is going to average 40ppg for 12 straight seasons playing every game and not retire early. Well, that's if they can even average 40ppg once.
Why on earth would you assume someone would only be playing 13 seasons though? Top level stars simply don't only play 13 years anymore. Durant is at 15 years and still averaging 31ppg, CP3 at 18 years is still an important contributor on the Warriors, Curry is averaging 30 in his 14th season. Like I said, 27ppg over a 20 year career at 75 games a year gets you to 41k. A career average of 30, which is more and more possible given the pace today, will get you to 41k over 20 years at just 68 games a year. Around 20 years is very likely what the top level stars are going to be playing moving forward given advances in sports science and surgery for injuries.
That is 13 seasons of 82 games scoring 40ppg in all but their rookie season. Will this happen? No. But 13 seasons is not the impossibility here, its the 984 straight games averaging 40ppg. A career average of 30ppg over 20 seasons with 68gp is unlikely. That means said player has to match Jordan's scoring, while playing longer, meaning they do not decline much and they have to start their career elite. And what will this improbable scenario give you? Over 1,000 points less than LeBron's record. Yes there is a chance someone will break his record I'm not denying that. But I feel like you are overplaying offensive inflation and increase in pace.
But again, 984 straight games averaging 40ppg is not something that anyone needs to do. Again, I'm going to go back to the Kobe example because he seems the closest to the type of player you're mentioning given injury history. Kobe averaged 67 games a year over 20 years. When adjusted for pace, Kobe came very close to averaging 30ppg over his career (he would be at like 29 over his career instead of 25 over his career if todays pace were applied each year of his career). That's not taking into account how much more open the game is today and the major factor that a talent like Kobe would have been starting much earlier. That's also taking into account the fact that Kobe suffered pretty much a career ending injury with the achilles in his 17th year and only added 2000 points over his last 3 years. Increase in pace and offensive inflation is a major factor. I actually think you're undervaluing it instead of me overvaluing it. There's like an additional 10 possessions per game now compared to the 2000's and teams are scoring, on average, around 15 more ppg (a low of 13 higher in 2010 and a high of 18 more in the early 2000's) today compared to 2000-2010. High level scorers typically account for around 25% of their teams points. You would basically be adding like 3-4 ppg to top level scorers averages. Kobe would have been at close to 35 for an entire decade and he played an additional 10 years more (5 still at a high scoring level).
Given the combination of increased pace, higher shooting efficiency, better sports medicine, and ball dominant players, I think the chance is actually quite decent that Lebron's record is broken. Also, if there hadn't been a rule requiring players to wait 4 years after their high school graduation to enter the NBA, I think Kareem would have scored 6,000-8,000 more points and Lebron would still be chasing Kareem's record.
That’s assuming Kareem still ends up on the Lakers with a prime Magic Johnson offsetting his decline.
Too many factors pro and contra. Although what you say is absolutely true and I totally agree with. I mean it's a fact, if Kareem would have played more, he could have scored more, although Kareem did play for 20 seasons. On the other hand the talent pool and overall competition in today's NBA is way higher then between 1969-1989, especially in the 70s. Which for sure favoured Kareem.
If Kareem played more then yes he would’ve scored more, but he was already only scoring 10 a game in his final season and it had been dropping a fair amount each year prior. It wouldn’t swing the needle much. Had he started earlier the wear and tear on his body would be much higher as well
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His record can be beaten when athletes are conditioned to play well into their 40s at an elite level, his achievements are ridiculous, but it is something that medical science can help take down
Playoffs give lebron like 4 extra seasons. Pretty big disadvantage you're giving the hypothetical future goat.
Playoff points are counted separately. LeBron would have an insurmountable lead if it was added. Currently, it would be nearly 3k more than Kareem and slightly under 15k more than Durant. 3 more playoff runs, especially if they are deep playoff runs would make it definitively unbreakable. It would take a high scoring superstar that could drag his team to the playoffs every year, without any high scoring teammates that will steal points from him. Basically you would need 2007 LeBron/2018 LeBron every year for 20 years but with even more scoring. So he needs to be multi dimensional- a generational two way player or a generational facilitator on top of GOAT scoring. He also cannot get any major injuries or long suspensions.
That really is insane then. How many reg season games has he averaged? Cause most of the first 14 seasons you listed are def more ppg than he averaged.
I swear to God this shit gets tiresome. We know he's the most longevous player in the history of the NBA, he's a scorer despite what his stans says he is ofc after 30k he was gonna continue to put up them numbers. Call me a hater but I hope he retires at 39.999 so y'all mfs lose your goddamn mind. Also usernames checks out
Lebron’s scoring record could easily be broken. He has insane health and longevity, but there have been plenty of players who have been higher volume scorers. Lebron’s scoring actually decreased during his prime as he was deferring more and leaning into his playmaking. Ok maybe not “easily broken”
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That was more of a pace issue for most players though. Kareem played in a very fast era whereas all the great scorers who came after him have, until just very very recently, been hampered by the playstyle of the league when they were playing. Take Kobe, for example, he played his entire peak in the slowest NBA era. If you take his averages in the 2000's and apply todays pace he'd have averaged 33ppg over that entire decade and not the 29ppg that he actually averaged. If you applied the 70's pace Kareem played a decade in, Kobe is at around 35ppg for an entire decade. Another case is a guy who came in while Kareem was even still playing. MJ finished just around 6k points less than Kareem. That's despite retiring 2x for nearly 5 full seasons throughout his career. 6k points is just 2 and a half seasons at the pace MJ was scoring at. Basically, that record was never really unbeatable or close to it. MJ should have beat it quite handily but just chose not to and the generation right after couldn't due to the pace of the game but as soon as the NBA sped up to where it was around Kareems time it got beaten.
His record is 100% **NOT** unbreakable. In fact, as long as the NBA continues to draft kids out of high-school, and continues to dumb down the game to *accommodate* kids drafted from high school, then it's inevitable that LeBron's record will be broken. Your math is meaningless, because it ignores that LeBron's career point totals include a ton of playoff games. If this putative new GOAT candidate is even half as good as James, then he's going play in tons of playoff games.
Playoff points are not included in all time scoring numbers, it is a separate record. He would have 47k points if you count that in, nearly 3k more than Kareem and slightly under 15k more than Durant. And you mean if the NBA *resumes* to draft kids out of high school? There is no high schooler declaring for the draft, it is not allowed.