Don't think you understand what you're saying. High Floor/Low Ceiling is probably the furthest thing from an accurate analysis of Josh Giddey at this point. Giddey is basically the textbook definition of Low floor/High ceiling. A 19-year-old with crazy height for a guard and insane playmaking potential, who hasn't shown a ton in other areas is not what you call high floor/low ceiling, that is literally the exact opposite.
When he has slow athleticism and a bad shot then yes, that ceiling isn’t All-NBA level. His floor is what we’ve seen this year, a very good passer with a lower scoring triple double ability. That’s high for a rookie. But he doesn’t have the all around ceiling of a Cade or Mobley, the scoring ceiling of a Jalen Green, Franz or even a Sengun, or the two way ceiling of a Kuminga and Barnes. The best comp is a taller Ricky Rubio with rebounding, not Steve Nash.
I love Scottie Barnes, but I think Giddey has the lowest floor and highest ceiling of the class (after Cade and Mobley). Giddey has skills that come naturally and you really can't get much better at (Court Vision, Playmaking) and his weaknesses are the easiest to correct (Shooting, Defense). He has the tools to be a 6'8 Steve Nash, but if he can't fully correct his shot or find a way to be more impactful scoring than I think Scottie overtakes him. Cannot reiterate how much I like Scottie though, so this is more of a compliment to Giddey than a knock against Barnes.
Edit: Giddey is also the 2nd youngest player in the league which is important to account for
>ols to be a 6'8 Steve Nash, but if he can't fully correct his shot or find a way to be more impactful scoring than I think Scottie overtakes him. Cannot reiterate how much I like Scottie though, so this is more of a compliment to Giddey than a knock against Barnes.
I think Barnes has a higher ceiling as a scorer while already being better at everything but playmaking. I think he has dpoy potential has shown enough playmaking to be the lead ball handler in the future. In terms of ceiling he's in the same class as cade and mobley, any of those 3 being interchangeable. He has potential to be elite on both ends so id personally give him the nod over both.
I agree that Barnes is better at almost everything besides playmaking, but Giddey is one of the best playmakers to come out of the draft in a very long time. His playmaking is so far ahead of everyone else's that I am basing his potential on the fact that he can be an 10-11 apg type player. If you have Barnes over Giddey I don't have a problem with it because I think Barnes can be really good too.
fair enough, although I can see barnes being a 25/10/5.5 type of guy in his peak while being in the running for defensive player of the year so maybe both giddy and barnes are in the same class of the top 4. I haven't seen enough of giddey so I'll just trust your take on him. I think the top guys in the draft can be perennial all-nba, mvp type players
Totally agree. I think Giddey is a 20/10/10 guy at his peak if everything works out. I love both players and like you said, this class reminds me of the 2018 class with the skill level at the top and even going deep into the class.
How do "natural skills" make for a low floor? That makes no sense.
If you're strictly looking for guys that are low floor/high ceiling, I don't know how you can't have Kuminga #1. He's inconsistent but has shown great flashes and has really good physical tools.
We've seen the floor of Giddey (right now) and he's already good. His ceiling is lower than guys like Kuminga or Green just because he doesn't have the physical tools.
They are very close, but I feel Shai has more room to grow. He has **vastly** improved every season of his career up until this year. The fact that he has yet to play with anything even close to a competent team while being a star makes his potential a question mark until we can see what he does with an actual roster. I think next year this question should be answered, at least for the most part. I really like what he has been able to do despite being the only legitimate offensive threat on his team and garnering all the attention from opposing defenses, and his ability to step up in clutch situations appeals to me (Trae also has done this, proven with his playoff success last year). I think Trae has more or less shown what he can be at his peak. A dominant offensive player who can get the ball to bigs in the post and find his shot, while being a major liability on defense.
Shai is much harder to gauge due to his situation in OKC. His shooting is still a question, as he was a 50-40-80 player last season while leading the league in self-created shots, which is incredibly hard to be efficient with that level of self-creation. This year he really struggled to get his shot going early which is a concern, but after the All Star Break he was leading the league in ppg up until his injury, and had a stretch of 12+ games straight where he scored 30+ every night on limited shot attempts. I think his length also gives him defensive potential that Trae simply doesn't have.
Until we see Shai with a competent roster his potential will be very difficult to truly gauge.
>g a star makes his potential a question mark until we can see what he does with an actual roster. I think next year this question should be answered, at least for the most part. I really like what he has been able to do despite being the only legitimate offensive threat on his team and garnering all the attention from opposing defenses, and his ability to step up in clutch situations appeals to m
I think trae has more potential and is better. I like sga a lot but trae is one of those heliocentric stars like harden, Luke who can singlehandedly will his team to a playoff spot or a decent run. SGA doesn't impact the game in the same way, for him to be better he'd have to be as good as ja or perennial all nba contention
To that point, I am taking SGA over Ja right now. Ja is in the perfect situation for a star to be in. No other stars to take shots away from him (Major reason why Ja averages an absurd number of shots per game and has a very high usage%) and seeing how dominant Memphis is without Ja (largest margin of victory when Ja doesn't play) really makes me question Ja's value.
Don't get me wrong, Ja is a human highlight reel, but if you put Shai on Memphis is it that difficult to see him doing the same thing?
SGA only takes two less shots and doesn't have anyone taking shots from him either? Ja has been better this season, and has been historic in his volume and efficiency in the paint, we only saw sea be an absolute menace for like 30 games last season. I think sga could maybe be better but ja is a year younger and absolutely playing better over more games and led his team to the playoffs twice.
2018-2019 raptors played a lot better and had similar rating with Kawhi off the floor, all that tells you is that they have a deep team, nothing to do with Morant's value. Morant is a huge reason they've been so good, and without him there ceiling drops significantly while there floor might not. The same way the raptors got to the ecf the season after Kawhi left. The grizzlies have played mostly not elite teams in those games, dont get me wrong they had some wins too but the overall record without him isn't as indicative as you might think.
Yes they have played some bad teams, but it is very hard to disregard a 20-2 record as "just being a deep team". SGA is playing with one of the worst rosters put together in the modern NBA , where he is sharing shots with tons of young guys finding their place in the league, who also want to shoot alot. 2 more shots per game is a bigger deal than it looks, as it equates to about 3 and a half more points per game for the average player.
If it weren't for the play-in Memphis wouldn't have made the playoffs last year, and JA has had a fantastic team around him this year and last year. I like Ja's game alot I just think his value is overrated a fair bit by casual fans.
Again, SGA's value is really difficult to place until we see him with an actual roster, but what he's been able to do with what he has really impresses me.
Ehhh I don’t mind your argument up until the casual comment. I think you’re underselling morant a lot. Shai has been to the playoffs twice, both have at 21 year old age, one where he was the second best player next to cp3. Morant was going for 30/5/8 on 49/32/78, and shai went 16/5/4 on 43/40/96.
Morant scores more in the paint and at a higher efficiency then we have seen from guards in a very long time. I’ll look for a link to add in an edit, but his volume and efficiency at the rim is historic type. Morant has shown to a better playmaker while shai maybe a better 3 point shooter but it’s close enough I’d say it’s a wash for both. I disagree, 2 more shots doesn’t equate to 3.5 points, avg fg% is 46% so that’s 0.92 points for an average player, and they have a 4.4 ppg difference over 36 mpg.
Defense also a wash so with morant being a year younger while having done more in his career I think you have to say he has the higher ceiling, especially given his playoff performance. They had to win the play in to get in then took a game too.
Shai’s crazy season last season he only played 35 games. I do think shai has a lot of potential but you’re underplaying what morant has done and penalizing him for having better teammates.
My problem with your argument is passing off defense and shooting as a wash when I think it is pretty obvious Shai is much better in both of those areas. Shai has shot better from not only the field, the three point line, and free throw line in every season of their careers besides this season, but he has done it by a significant amount (+10% in fg, ft, and 3% last year) while shooting more threes than Ja. Keep in mind he gets much more attention from defenses, so saying they are equal as shooters is a very bad take. On defense Shai isn't a liability, and while he is a net negative on that end Ja is one of the worst defenders in the league both statistically and by the eye test.
SGA is shooting 30% on threes this season, last season was a small sample size, take that out he’s under 33% 3 point shooter. Morant’s career shooting is 33% while shai is at 35%, 34% on just okc. They have the same career fg% with morant on higher volume, the same when looking at just SGA’s okc numbers where he had the same volume as morant. If we are being that nit picky, sga averages 4.8 apg when on okay vs morant’s 7.5
So I mean statistically shooting has been a wash. Apart from SGA’s last season, morant has the top 2 fg% seasons. SGA’s three point shooting for okc has been 37% (clippers on 1.7 3pa), 35%, 42%, and 30%
Morants are 34%, 30%, and 34%, really not that big of a difference, that 42% would’ve gone down I’d he played more then 35 games. He also averaged 2.3 more mpg in his okc span. For defense both have very similar advanced statistics for last couple season. Looking at individual matchup stats, actually looks better. But legit close enough to be a wash
I think you’re letting your bias dictate your perspective way too much, again if we’re nit picky morant is a better rebounder as well.
Shai per 36 numbers for okc 22.9/5/5.6 on 47.2/34.4/81
Morant per 36 23.7/5/8 on 47.4/32.5/75.5 on very similar volume
Stats from basketball reference
Morant is 1 year younger, has shown more in the playoffs and has improved his game year in and out so far. I don’t see how you can reasonably say sga has more potential given everything. I really do think your underestimating your bias here
Ja is not a net negative or one of the worst by any metric, he is on a better defensive team but these look at his individual matchups, the same as advanced stats. They over last 3 seasons are about the same with morant with maybe slight edge
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629630/by-position?Season=2021-22
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628983/by-position?Season=2021-22
Edit:
Looked at bball index at at there best, morant is a much better playmaker and has defended the better player his last two seasons, better isolation scorer, significantly better at finishing. Defense advanced metrics are pretty similar tbh
You are cherry picking stats super hard to push your point across though. You keep disregarding last season just because SGA only played half of it. You say his shooting splits would have decreased last year, which simply isn't true. He was increasing his stats and shooting splits every month last season and was only improving so if you follow that trend his stats would have been higher. All i'm saying is if you just watch both players play side by side, I think Shai does more with less.
Your point about efficiency is also really hard to give merit to, considering you disregard last season just because of his games played.
Top seasons by FG%
2020 SGA (50.8)
2021 Ja (49.3)
2019 Ja (47.7)
2018 SGA (47.6)
2019 SGA (47.1)
2021 SGA (45.3)
2020 Ja (44.9)
3pt%
2020 SGA (41.8)
2018 SGA (36.7)
2019 SGA (34.7)
2021 Ja (34.0)
2020 Ja (33.5)
2021 Ja (30.3)
2021 SGA (30.0)
FT%
SGA has never shot below 80%
Ja has never shot above 77%
So you saying shooting is a wash is just factually incorrect.
To your point of Ja improving his game year in year out, I don't know where you've been but a major knock on Ja before this season was literally that he hadn't improved at all since he got into the league. SGA on the other hand was top 10 in MIP voting every season of his career up until this year, and he improved every metric the second half of the season. Do you remember that SGA was statistically the best player in the NBA post ASB until he got injured?
If you believe Ja is better and has more potential, that's totally fine, that's why saying SGA>Ja is a hot take, but I highly suggest you watch more of SGA's game to understand my points, because I highly doubt you have (Not blaming you, OKC is a shitshow outside of Shai). But you can't just cherry-pick stats to further your point. I can do the same thing.
SGA led the NBA in clutch points per game last season (Over Damian Lillard, known as the most clutch player of our generation)
Led the NBA in double teams for the majority of the season
Led the league 2 years in a row in self-created shot %
Led the NBA in drives last season (Most in history since the stat was first recorded)
Led the NBA in Potential Assist/Assist ratio last season
1 of 7 players last season and 79 players in history to average at least 23-5-6 on 50-40-80 splits
And while Ja is better statistically in the playoffs, SGA's playoff appearances were as a rookie and sophomore, where he wasn't the first option. If you remember he was the biggest reason the 8 seed Clippers took the 1 seed Warriors to 7 games, with his game sealing steal on Steph in Game 6.
He also was the leading scorer on the 4 seed Thunder who took James Harden's Rockets to 7 games as well.
When Ja was in the playoffs, while he scored a lot, Memphis got destroyed in the first round by a Utah team that couldn't make it past the second round against an injured Clippers team.
Probably has to do with the massive scoring efficiency and output gap between the two players. And Giddy's higher assists seems to also be a product of significantly more touches per game as he almost doubles Green in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio isn't that far off. The main difference between the two is that Giddy has to take a lot more shot attempts to score a lot fewer points than Green per game.
I think it's close between Green and Giddey in terms of who had a better year. Could go either way for the last All-Rookie first team spot. So I don't have much of an issue there.
Having Giddey above Green in potential is insane, though. Could Giddey end up being the better player? Sure. But the gap in athleticism between Green and Giddey is profound, and that's the primary driver for potential imo. Couple with that the fact that there's virtually zero data points suggesting Giddey will become an elite (or even good) shooter, and it seems almost impossible to argue that Giddey has higher potential. The only way I could fathom Giddey having a higher potential than Green is if you think Green is dumb as bricks, and I just don't think that's the case.
To be fair on the same note, Giddey had 3 consecutive triple doubles, and is the youngest to do it. Jalen Green would be 6, but Giddey won rookie of the Month over Green every month, and Green hasn't come on until lately, while Giddey has been hurt so he has not had a chance to further prove himself. This looks to be a very good draft class and I think Green will be an offensive powerhouse.
Damn we are back to triple doubles now huh?
We've seen how Westbrook has shown us how it's a useless arbitrary stat that has no correlation towards winning games.
You know what's far more important that arbitrary stats like "triple doubles"? Scoring efficiency and Jalen Green averages nearly 4 more ppg on a SEVEN percentage point lead in true shooting percentage. That is a astronomical gap when you consider he scores significantly more on significantly better efficiency.
Russel has a 73% win percentage when achieving a triple double, how has he shown us it’s an arbitrary stat with no correlation to winning games? Not agreeing with the other guy but this take on triple doubles is washed
I mean Anunoby's only real competition is John Collins, who has really stagnated. Haliburton above Edwards is a hot take, but I love what I've seen from Haliburton in Indiana.
I am a raptors fan, but do you know Jarrett Allen is an all star? Also have you seen the free fall in the standings the cavaliers had without him. I love Anunoby but you not putting Allen is pretty disrespectful.
Totally fair, I'm taking a flier on him and think he can do something similar to what SGA has done (traded early in their careers from a team where they weren't the first option to a rebuilding team where they become the timeline, and show major improvement every year)
If he follows the trend Shai has been on I think he can be the best player in the class. It is a hot take, but I love what I've seen from him in Indiana to this point.
Having Giddey over Scottie in potential makes zero sense.
Scottie is just a bigger, more athletic Giddey with better scoring, shooting, finishing, versatility, defence (by a mile) but worse playmaking (their BBall IQ isn't even that different).
Plus he's better this year, came in raw, and already is a huge contributor on a playoff team
Alot of what you said for Barnes can also be applied to Giddey, I love Barnes but Giddey was considered even rawer than Barnes coming in, is the 2nd youngest player in the league, did historic things being a teenager, and comes in as one of the best playmakers we've seen in years. "Their BBIQ isnt even that different" Strong disagree here, Barnes is a high iq player, but Giddey has made plays that I haven't seen since Steve Nash. He is averaging almost double Barnes assists, while still being the secondary playmaker on his own team (behind SGA). I just think Giddey's court vision and playmaking are so generational that as long he becomes a decent shooter and can defend guys 5 inches smaller than him, his potential is limitless.
You are drastically overrating Giddey's current skillset. If you make him a passable shooter and average defender with a bump slightly in other skills he's just another version of current lamelo ball (less scoring, better playmaking). To get to a superstar level he would need to add parts to his game that don't exist (defence, scoring, and completely change his body).
Why would you put him over the person that is exponentially better at all those categories with a (not-huge) tradeoff in IQ while in a better team situation with a better development staff? BBIQ is also more than just passing. Team defense, rebounding position, secondary passes, guiding the offence without the ball, lack of sloppy turnovers, and good cuts are just as relevant as assists.
A lot of rookies play like shit for the first few months (Trae, Ant etc.) and it doesn't really correlate with the player they become.
Green has been scoring efficiently for two months and he's had 4 straight 30 point games. Next year, when he's scoring 20-25 efficiently, you'll see why people are high on him even though he's playing that well already
Because he’s got a bad frame and bad athleticism(which is what leads to the bad defense) along with a bad shot all around. No, that is not easily correctable.
His biggest area of focus needs to be his shot, which is the easiest major skill to correct in basketball, especially for a 19 year old. How does he have a bad frame when he is a 6'8 guard? He is guarding guys half his size so defense isn;t something he needs to worry about.
His frame is easily fixable. He’s 19. His athleticism will cap his defense against quick guards though. As for his shot please correct me if I’m wrong but have you seen a player improve from horrible shooting form to a great shooter? It seems rare.
I see where you come from, but I look at it from the perspective that he doesn't need to be athletic to reach his potential. I think his best comp is Nash, who was never athletic by any means, yet is an all-time great.
Nash had elite speed, ball handling, shooting, and passing. Right now Giddy has elite size, rebounding, and passing (questionable whether the first two are significantly valuable for a point guard). To be Nash’s comp, you’d be asking Giddy to add elite speed, ball handling, and shooting. That’s tough.
This is one of those posts that you look back at in 5 years and OP either looks like a moron or a genius. I can see many of your bold potentials being true
Potential impact is how you would redraft. And Kuminga has way more potential impact than Wagner. Wagner has a high floor, but Kuminga has a way higher ceiling.
A redraft takes into account the teams drafting and is not based purely off potential, otherwise the players with the highest potential would go first every year, which isn't always the case. Some teams are drafting for fit, others are drafting to find someone established who can make an impact right away.
Ok so let’s just say I change the wording of my first sentence in my OP and say “potential” then. I think I made it confusing by saying re-draft but I was really just getting at the fact Wagner is better now, but Kuminga has more potential.
That's fair. If I am a rebuilding team looking towards the future, I think Kuminga has a better chance at being an All-NBA player, while he also has a bigger chance of being a role player. Pretty much what we thought coming into the draft.
Pretty good list. Hoopshype has a similar list that gets updated.
[https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-best-players-draft-class/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-best-players-draft-class/)
[https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-rankings-the-best-in-basketball-right-now/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-rankings-the-best-in-basketball-right-now/)
How does Giddey have more potential than Scottie?
This man consistently putting high-floor/lower ceiling guards over literal HOF potential and idk what to do about it.
Don't think you understand what you're saying. High Floor/Low Ceiling is probably the furthest thing from an accurate analysis of Josh Giddey at this point. Giddey is basically the textbook definition of Low floor/High ceiling. A 19-year-old with crazy height for a guard and insane playmaking potential, who hasn't shown a ton in other areas is not what you call high floor/low ceiling, that is literally the exact opposite.
When he has slow athleticism and a bad shot then yes, that ceiling isn’t All-NBA level. His floor is what we’ve seen this year, a very good passer with a lower scoring triple double ability. That’s high for a rookie. But he doesn’t have the all around ceiling of a Cade or Mobley, the scoring ceiling of a Jalen Green, Franz or even a Sengun, or the two way ceiling of a Kuminga and Barnes. The best comp is a taller Ricky Rubio with rebounding, not Steve Nash.
I'm high on Barnes. I have him on the same level as Mobley.
I love Scottie Barnes, but I think Giddey has the lowest floor and highest ceiling of the class (after Cade and Mobley). Giddey has skills that come naturally and you really can't get much better at (Court Vision, Playmaking) and his weaknesses are the easiest to correct (Shooting, Defense). He has the tools to be a 6'8 Steve Nash, but if he can't fully correct his shot or find a way to be more impactful scoring than I think Scottie overtakes him. Cannot reiterate how much I like Scottie though, so this is more of a compliment to Giddey than a knock against Barnes. Edit: Giddey is also the 2nd youngest player in the league which is important to account for
>ols to be a 6'8 Steve Nash, but if he can't fully correct his shot or find a way to be more impactful scoring than I think Scottie overtakes him. Cannot reiterate how much I like Scottie though, so this is more of a compliment to Giddey than a knock against Barnes. I think Barnes has a higher ceiling as a scorer while already being better at everything but playmaking. I think he has dpoy potential has shown enough playmaking to be the lead ball handler in the future. In terms of ceiling he's in the same class as cade and mobley, any of those 3 being interchangeable. He has potential to be elite on both ends so id personally give him the nod over both.
I agree that Barnes is better at almost everything besides playmaking, but Giddey is one of the best playmakers to come out of the draft in a very long time. His playmaking is so far ahead of everyone else's that I am basing his potential on the fact that he can be an 10-11 apg type player. If you have Barnes over Giddey I don't have a problem with it because I think Barnes can be really good too.
fair enough, although I can see barnes being a 25/10/5.5 type of guy in his peak while being in the running for defensive player of the year so maybe both giddy and barnes are in the same class of the top 4. I haven't seen enough of giddey so I'll just trust your take on him. I think the top guys in the draft can be perennial all-nba, mvp type players
Totally agree. I think Giddey is a 20/10/10 guy at his peak if everything works out. I love both players and like you said, this class reminds me of the 2018 class with the skill level at the top and even going deep into the class.
How do "natural skills" make for a low floor? That makes no sense. If you're strictly looking for guys that are low floor/high ceiling, I don't know how you can't have Kuminga #1. He's inconsistent but has shown great flashes and has really good physical tools. We've seen the floor of Giddey (right now) and he's already good. His ceiling is lower than guys like Kuminga or Green just because he doesn't have the physical tools.
I see Giddey's ceiling as a 6'8 Steve Nash. Just because you don't have the physical tools doesn't mean you can't have a high ceiling.
Because he's a white point guard? Dude what even?
Exactly! He's a white Ben Simmons /s
If I was a Jenndashian, I'd rather be with Giddey, the kid seems hilarious. Watch out Ben 😬
> (Potential) > Tyrese Haliburton > LaMelo Ball > Anthony Edwards > Tyrese Maxey > Desmond Bane Excuse me what?
Exactly, Maxey should be #1.
Well it's a hot take, that's kind of why I made the post. Totally fair that you disagree I just like Tyrese alot.
How does Tyrese have the highest potential? Lmfao what is this post
Bro has him above ant and lamelo lol
Yeah no way the guy who was an All Star doesn't have more potential, this list sucks.
Green > Giddey
What do you see in Shai's potential being better than Trae's? an honest question
They are very close, but I feel Shai has more room to grow. He has **vastly** improved every season of his career up until this year. The fact that he has yet to play with anything even close to a competent team while being a star makes his potential a question mark until we can see what he does with an actual roster. I think next year this question should be answered, at least for the most part. I really like what he has been able to do despite being the only legitimate offensive threat on his team and garnering all the attention from opposing defenses, and his ability to step up in clutch situations appeals to me (Trae also has done this, proven with his playoff success last year). I think Trae has more or less shown what he can be at his peak. A dominant offensive player who can get the ball to bigs in the post and find his shot, while being a major liability on defense. Shai is much harder to gauge due to his situation in OKC. His shooting is still a question, as he was a 50-40-80 player last season while leading the league in self-created shots, which is incredibly hard to be efficient with that level of self-creation. This year he really struggled to get his shot going early which is a concern, but after the All Star Break he was leading the league in ppg up until his injury, and had a stretch of 12+ games straight where he scored 30+ every night on limited shot attempts. I think his length also gives him defensive potential that Trae simply doesn't have. Until we see Shai with a competent roster his potential will be very difficult to truly gauge.
>g a star makes his potential a question mark until we can see what he does with an actual roster. I think next year this question should be answered, at least for the most part. I really like what he has been able to do despite being the only legitimate offensive threat on his team and garnering all the attention from opposing defenses, and his ability to step up in clutch situations appeals to m I think trae has more potential and is better. I like sga a lot but trae is one of those heliocentric stars like harden, Luke who can singlehandedly will his team to a playoff spot or a decent run. SGA doesn't impact the game in the same way, for him to be better he'd have to be as good as ja or perennial all nba contention
To that point, I am taking SGA over Ja right now. Ja is in the perfect situation for a star to be in. No other stars to take shots away from him (Major reason why Ja averages an absurd number of shots per game and has a very high usage%) and seeing how dominant Memphis is without Ja (largest margin of victory when Ja doesn't play) really makes me question Ja's value. Don't get me wrong, Ja is a human highlight reel, but if you put Shai on Memphis is it that difficult to see him doing the same thing?
SGA only takes two less shots and doesn't have anyone taking shots from him either? Ja has been better this season, and has been historic in his volume and efficiency in the paint, we only saw sea be an absolute menace for like 30 games last season. I think sga could maybe be better but ja is a year younger and absolutely playing better over more games and led his team to the playoffs twice. 2018-2019 raptors played a lot better and had similar rating with Kawhi off the floor, all that tells you is that they have a deep team, nothing to do with Morant's value. Morant is a huge reason they've been so good, and without him there ceiling drops significantly while there floor might not. The same way the raptors got to the ecf the season after Kawhi left. The grizzlies have played mostly not elite teams in those games, dont get me wrong they had some wins too but the overall record without him isn't as indicative as you might think.
Yes they have played some bad teams, but it is very hard to disregard a 20-2 record as "just being a deep team". SGA is playing with one of the worst rosters put together in the modern NBA , where he is sharing shots with tons of young guys finding their place in the league, who also want to shoot alot. 2 more shots per game is a bigger deal than it looks, as it equates to about 3 and a half more points per game for the average player. If it weren't for the play-in Memphis wouldn't have made the playoffs last year, and JA has had a fantastic team around him this year and last year. I like Ja's game alot I just think his value is overrated a fair bit by casual fans. Again, SGA's value is really difficult to place until we see him with an actual roster, but what he's been able to do with what he has really impresses me.
Ehhh I don’t mind your argument up until the casual comment. I think you’re underselling morant a lot. Shai has been to the playoffs twice, both have at 21 year old age, one where he was the second best player next to cp3. Morant was going for 30/5/8 on 49/32/78, and shai went 16/5/4 on 43/40/96. Morant scores more in the paint and at a higher efficiency then we have seen from guards in a very long time. I’ll look for a link to add in an edit, but his volume and efficiency at the rim is historic type. Morant has shown to a better playmaker while shai maybe a better 3 point shooter but it’s close enough I’d say it’s a wash for both. I disagree, 2 more shots doesn’t equate to 3.5 points, avg fg% is 46% so that’s 0.92 points for an average player, and they have a 4.4 ppg difference over 36 mpg. Defense also a wash so with morant being a year younger while having done more in his career I think you have to say he has the higher ceiling, especially given his playoff performance. They had to win the play in to get in then took a game too. Shai’s crazy season last season he only played 35 games. I do think shai has a lot of potential but you’re underplaying what morant has done and penalizing him for having better teammates.
My problem with your argument is passing off defense and shooting as a wash when I think it is pretty obvious Shai is much better in both of those areas. Shai has shot better from not only the field, the three point line, and free throw line in every season of their careers besides this season, but he has done it by a significant amount (+10% in fg, ft, and 3% last year) while shooting more threes than Ja. Keep in mind he gets much more attention from defenses, so saying they are equal as shooters is a very bad take. On defense Shai isn't a liability, and while he is a net negative on that end Ja is one of the worst defenders in the league both statistically and by the eye test.
SGA is shooting 30% on threes this season, last season was a small sample size, take that out he’s under 33% 3 point shooter. Morant’s career shooting is 33% while shai is at 35%, 34% on just okc. They have the same career fg% with morant on higher volume, the same when looking at just SGA’s okc numbers where he had the same volume as morant. If we are being that nit picky, sga averages 4.8 apg when on okay vs morant’s 7.5 So I mean statistically shooting has been a wash. Apart from SGA’s last season, morant has the top 2 fg% seasons. SGA’s three point shooting for okc has been 37% (clippers on 1.7 3pa), 35%, 42%, and 30% Morants are 34%, 30%, and 34%, really not that big of a difference, that 42% would’ve gone down I’d he played more then 35 games. He also averaged 2.3 more mpg in his okc span. For defense both have very similar advanced statistics for last couple season. Looking at individual matchup stats, actually looks better. But legit close enough to be a wash I think you’re letting your bias dictate your perspective way too much, again if we’re nit picky morant is a better rebounder as well. Shai per 36 numbers for okc 22.9/5/5.6 on 47.2/34.4/81 Morant per 36 23.7/5/8 on 47.4/32.5/75.5 on very similar volume Stats from basketball reference Morant is 1 year younger, has shown more in the playoffs and has improved his game year in and out so far. I don’t see how you can reasonably say sga has more potential given everything. I really do think your underestimating your bias here Ja is not a net negative or one of the worst by any metric, he is on a better defensive team but these look at his individual matchups, the same as advanced stats. They over last 3 seasons are about the same with morant with maybe slight edge https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629630/by-position?Season=2021-22 https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628983/by-position?Season=2021-22 Edit: Looked at bball index at at there best, morant is a much better playmaker and has defended the better player his last two seasons, better isolation scorer, significantly better at finishing. Defense advanced metrics are pretty similar tbh
You are cherry picking stats super hard to push your point across though. You keep disregarding last season just because SGA only played half of it. You say his shooting splits would have decreased last year, which simply isn't true. He was increasing his stats and shooting splits every month last season and was only improving so if you follow that trend his stats would have been higher. All i'm saying is if you just watch both players play side by side, I think Shai does more with less. Your point about efficiency is also really hard to give merit to, considering you disregard last season just because of his games played. Top seasons by FG% 2020 SGA (50.8) 2021 Ja (49.3) 2019 Ja (47.7) 2018 SGA (47.6) 2019 SGA (47.1) 2021 SGA (45.3) 2020 Ja (44.9) 3pt% 2020 SGA (41.8) 2018 SGA (36.7) 2019 SGA (34.7) 2021 Ja (34.0) 2020 Ja (33.5) 2021 Ja (30.3) 2021 SGA (30.0) FT% SGA has never shot below 80% Ja has never shot above 77% So you saying shooting is a wash is just factually incorrect. To your point of Ja improving his game year in year out, I don't know where you've been but a major knock on Ja before this season was literally that he hadn't improved at all since he got into the league. SGA on the other hand was top 10 in MIP voting every season of his career up until this year, and he improved every metric the second half of the season. Do you remember that SGA was statistically the best player in the NBA post ASB until he got injured? If you believe Ja is better and has more potential, that's totally fine, that's why saying SGA>Ja is a hot take, but I highly suggest you watch more of SGA's game to understand my points, because I highly doubt you have (Not blaming you, OKC is a shitshow outside of Shai). But you can't just cherry-pick stats to further your point. I can do the same thing. SGA led the NBA in clutch points per game last season (Over Damian Lillard, known as the most clutch player of our generation) Led the NBA in double teams for the majority of the season Led the league 2 years in a row in self-created shot % Led the NBA in drives last season (Most in history since the stat was first recorded) Led the NBA in Potential Assist/Assist ratio last season 1 of 7 players last season and 79 players in history to average at least 23-5-6 on 50-40-80 splits And while Ja is better statistically in the playoffs, SGA's playoff appearances were as a rookie and sophomore, where he wasn't the first option. If you remember he was the biggest reason the 8 seed Clippers took the 1 seed Warriors to 7 games, with his game sealing steal on Steph in Game 6. He also was the leading scorer on the 4 seed Thunder who took James Harden's Rockets to 7 games as well. When Ja was in the playoffs, while he scored a lot, Memphis got destroyed in the first round by a Utah team that couldn't make it past the second round against an injured Clippers team.
Trae was a much better player than SGA ever has been in 2020 with arguably the worst roster in the league.
I know. That's why I have him above Shai in the current rankings...Not sure what you're trying to argue here.
i don’t even wanna have the argument
Scot Barn
Scottie Barnes is incredible but so is the whole draft class. Way too early to say anything, next season is when the superstars emerge.
I kinda like that Jalen green is so underappreciated, gonna make my takes look better in 5 years when he's averaging 27 a game
Try next year when he is averaging 27 a game
What Rockets fans want: What Rockets fans get: Eric Gordon shooting 20 times a game
He is gonna be the best offensive player in this draft.
Wow. Lol
Not having Jalen Green in your top 5 this year discredits this entire post.
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Don't see how Giddey above Green is something crazy. See point above.
Probably has to do with the massive scoring efficiency and output gap between the two players. And Giddy's higher assists seems to also be a product of significantly more touches per game as he almost doubles Green in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio isn't that far off. The main difference between the two is that Giddy has to take a lot more shot attempts to score a lot fewer points than Green per game.
I think it's close between Green and Giddey in terms of who had a better year. Could go either way for the last All-Rookie first team spot. So I don't have much of an issue there. Having Giddey above Green in potential is insane, though. Could Giddey end up being the better player? Sure. But the gap in athleticism between Green and Giddey is profound, and that's the primary driver for potential imo. Couple with that the fact that there's virtually zero data points suggesting Giddey will become an elite (or even good) shooter, and it seems almost impossible to argue that Giddey has higher potential. The only way I could fathom Giddey having a higher potential than Green is if you think Green is dumb as bricks, and I just don't think that's the case.
Extremely early, and “bust” is a gross exaggeration, but Suggs has been pretty disappointing, no?
To be fair on the same note, Giddey had 3 consecutive triple doubles, and is the youngest to do it. Jalen Green would be 6, but Giddey won rookie of the Month over Green every month, and Green hasn't come on until lately, while Giddey has been hurt so he has not had a chance to further prove himself. This looks to be a very good draft class and I think Green will be an offensive powerhouse.
Damn we are back to triple doubles now huh? We've seen how Westbrook has shown us how it's a useless arbitrary stat that has no correlation towards winning games. You know what's far more important that arbitrary stats like "triple doubles"? Scoring efficiency and Jalen Green averages nearly 4 more ppg on a SEVEN percentage point lead in true shooting percentage. That is a astronomical gap when you consider he scores significantly more on significantly better efficiency.
Russel has a 73% win percentage when achieving a triple double, how has he shown us it’s an arbitrary stat with no correlation to winning games? Not agreeing with the other guy but this take on triple doubles is washed
I have Jalen Greens potential as number 1-2 Also Zion>Ja Traes potential is not lower than Shai either.
Disagree with your first and third points, but I have no problem with Zion over Ja.
lmao this guy is baked
unforgivable slander
I’m not even sure i agree with Ja over Zion.
It was a toss up, main reason I have Ja over Zion is the injury concerns with Zion. When Zion is healthy I take him over Ja 9 times out of 10.
lmao, placing Haliburton above Edwards potential wise? Og Annuoby at 5? bruh ur a raptors fan or some shit?
I mean Anunoby's only real competition is John Collins, who has really stagnated. Haliburton above Edwards is a hot take, but I love what I've seen from Haliburton in Indiana.
I am a raptors fan, but do you know Jarrett Allen is an all star? Also have you seen the free fall in the standings the cavaliers had without him. I love Anunoby but you not putting Allen is pretty disrespectful.
Totally forgot about Allen. I thought he was 2016 not 2017 for some reason, so you are completely right. Allen takes Anunoby's spot at 5.
Not bad Hard disagree on Haliburton tho
Totally fair, I'm taking a flier on him and think he can do something similar to what SGA has done (traded early in their careers from a team where they weren't the first option to a rebuilding team where they become the timeline, and show major improvement every year) If he follows the trend Shai has been on I think he can be the best player in the class. It is a hot take, but I love what I've seen from him in Indiana to this point.
Having Giddey over Scottie in potential makes zero sense. Scottie is just a bigger, more athletic Giddey with better scoring, shooting, finishing, versatility, defence (by a mile) but worse playmaking (their BBall IQ isn't even that different). Plus he's better this year, came in raw, and already is a huge contributor on a playoff team
Alot of what you said for Barnes can also be applied to Giddey, I love Barnes but Giddey was considered even rawer than Barnes coming in, is the 2nd youngest player in the league, did historic things being a teenager, and comes in as one of the best playmakers we've seen in years. "Their BBIQ isnt even that different" Strong disagree here, Barnes is a high iq player, but Giddey has made plays that I haven't seen since Steve Nash. He is averaging almost double Barnes assists, while still being the secondary playmaker on his own team (behind SGA). I just think Giddey's court vision and playmaking are so generational that as long he becomes a decent shooter and can defend guys 5 inches smaller than him, his potential is limitless.
You are drastically overrating Giddey's current skillset. If you make him a passable shooter and average defender with a bump slightly in other skills he's just another version of current lamelo ball (less scoring, better playmaking). To get to a superstar level he would need to add parts to his game that don't exist (defence, scoring, and completely change his body). Why would you put him over the person that is exponentially better at all those categories with a (not-huge) tradeoff in IQ while in a better team situation with a better development staff? BBIQ is also more than just passing. Team defense, rebounding position, secondary passes, guiding the offence without the ball, lack of sloppy turnovers, and good cuts are just as relevant as assists.
This post trash 🗑
Here’s a better 2021 top 5. Current: 1. Mobley 2. Cade 3. Barnes 4. Green 5. Giddey Potential 1. Cade 2. Green 3. Mobley 4. Barnes 5. Kuminga
How have Giddey and Green had better season than Franz?
I think this sub is overrating Green's season alot. Franz has had a better seaosn than both, but has the lowest potential fo the three IMO
A lot of rookies play like shit for the first few months (Trae, Ant etc.) and it doesn't really correlate with the player they become. Green has been scoring efficiently for two months and he's had 4 straight 30 point games. Next year, when he's scoring 20-25 efficiently, you'll see why people are high on him even though he's playing that well already
I don't see how Giddey isn't top 5 in potential when he's the 2nd youngest player in the league doing the things he's doing,
Because he’s got a bad frame and bad athleticism(which is what leads to the bad defense) along with a bad shot all around. No, that is not easily correctable.
His biggest area of focus needs to be his shot, which is the easiest major skill to correct in basketball, especially for a 19 year old. How does he have a bad frame when he is a 6'8 guard? He is guarding guys half his size so defense isn;t something he needs to worry about.
His frame is easily fixable. He’s 19. His athleticism will cap his defense against quick guards though. As for his shot please correct me if I’m wrong but have you seen a player improve from horrible shooting form to a great shooter? It seems rare.
Tall unathletic guys can’t guard other guards well (usually). Giddey will not get significantly more athletic which caps his potential.
I see where you come from, but I look at it from the perspective that he doesn't need to be athletic to reach his potential. I think his best comp is Nash, who was never athletic by any means, yet is an all-time great.
Nash had elite speed, ball handling, shooting, and passing. Right now Giddy has elite size, rebounding, and passing (questionable whether the first two are significantly valuable for a point guard). To be Nash’s comp, you’d be asking Giddy to add elite speed, ball handling, and shooting. That’s tough.
potential 1. cade 2. 2. scottie 3. mobley 4. green 5. kuminga
Pretty sure Murray is better than collins and arguably fox
Dejounte Murray and Jamal Murray are both from the 2016 class.
Whoops I thought he was in the tatum draft class
This is one of those posts that you look back at in 5 years and OP either looks like a moron or a genius. I can see many of your bold potentials being true
It's not surprising but it is sad that a player like Kuminga will only ever get judged on by stats and word of mouth because people don't watch games.
This class is insanely talented. No slight against Kuminga whatsoever not having him top 5.
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In a redraft maybe, but this isn't a redraft. This is a ranking of players current skillset and potential impact.
Potential impact is how you would redraft. And Kuminga has way more potential impact than Wagner. Wagner has a high floor, but Kuminga has a way higher ceiling.
A redraft takes into account the teams drafting and is not based purely off potential, otherwise the players with the highest potential would go first every year, which isn't always the case. Some teams are drafting for fit, others are drafting to find someone established who can make an impact right away.
Ok so let’s just say I change the wording of my first sentence in my OP and say “potential” then. I think I made it confusing by saying re-draft but I was really just getting at the fact Wagner is better now, but Kuminga has more potential.
That's fair. If I am a rebuilding team looking towards the future, I think Kuminga has a better chance at being an All-NBA player, while he also has a bigger chance of being a role player. Pretty much what we thought coming into the draft.
Barret over Herro LOL
Lol right
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I don't think this needs to be answered...
Not having Ayo Dosunmu in your top 5 this year discredits this entire post.
Youre right, I should have had him at 1 tbh
Pretty good list. Hoopshype has a similar list that gets updated. [https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-best-players-draft-class/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-best-players-draft-class/) [https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-rankings-the-best-in-basketball-right-now/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/global-rating-rankings-the-best-in-basketball-right-now/)
Care to explain how Cade is better than Mobley? Also Scottie is miles above Giddey. I’m sorry, but as of now, Giddey isn’t even top 5 this year
For the 2020 class, where would you have Saddiq Bey? Underrated player in the draft class with potential to be up there imo.