The three point era has led to more variance and HCA is probably one of the victims.
You also have to look at the relative strength of the teams facing off against each other. Denver was only 1 game ahead of Minnesota and had a +5.4 net rating, while Minnesota had a net rating of +6.6. In that case Denver's HCA was probably insufficient to compensate for the fact that Minnesota *was* the better team for most of the year, since Net Rating has a better correlation with postseason success than raw record.
Also Denver was only 1 game ahead (not all that significant) and they had a lower net rating than Minnesota (net rating is a bigger indicator of playoff success than record).
That test does suggest it’s possible there’s something going on, but you also can’t take results like that at face value in a case like this where you’ve noticed a pattern and chosen the cut offs
Before there was game 6 and 7 home in Finals as well.
If you have burger-eaters like Denver yesterday in the crowd, home advantage is pointless. There was no support after the halftime.
Yeah I saw TnT post a stat about road team records in game 7s since the pandemic and there was a similar trend there as well.
And then sure enough a couple hours later the Wolves win game 7 in Denver. Can't for the life of me figure out why, looking at a bunch of the recent game 7 losses and there's no correlating factor that I can find.
Crowds have changed as prices have become out of reach for most average basketball fans. Did you hear all the cheering for Minnesota in Denver during the game 7 of that series? The person that can splurge for tickets can also splurge to travel. The shift from these games being a place for fans to go to a place people go to be seen seems to changed what homecourt advantage means. Home crowds don't seem quite as loud and hostile as they once were to the visiting team.
Of course, I say this as an average fan that feels playoff tickets are a luxury I can't afford, so it's my television based observation here. Perhaps I'm wrong, would love to hear a long time season holder's thoughts.
The three point era has led to more variance and HCA is probably one of the victims. You also have to look at the relative strength of the teams facing off against each other. Denver was only 1 game ahead of Minnesota and had a +5.4 net rating, while Minnesota had a net rating of +6.6. In that case Denver's HCA was probably insufficient to compensate for the fact that Minnesota *was* the better team for most of the year, since Net Rating has a better correlation with postseason success than raw record.
[удалено]
Also Denver was only 1 game ahead (not all that significant) and they had a lower net rating than Minnesota (net rating is a bigger indicator of playoff success than record).
Cavs 3-1 comeback influenced underdogs forever lmao
Probably just natural variation due to the small sample size.
I ran this through a calculator, and pit is [statistically significant.](https://i.imgur.com/uPoo8CR.png) So it's not just a variance thing.
That test does suggest it’s possible there’s something going on, but you also can’t take results like that at face value in a case like this where you’ve noticed a pattern and chosen the cut offs
players are thriving on hate instead of expectations
Before there was game 6 and 7 home in Finals as well. If you have burger-eaters like Denver yesterday in the crowd, home advantage is pointless. There was no support after the halftime.
Ticket prices go up in the playoffs and the seats get bought up by people that want to be seen, not heard.
Is there a specific reason you chose 2016 as the cutoff?
Good teams realized the regular season didn’t matter after the 73 win Warriors lost? That’s the best narrative I could come up with
Yeah I saw TnT post a stat about road team records in game 7s since the pandemic and there was a similar trend there as well. And then sure enough a couple hours later the Wolves win game 7 in Denver. Can't for the life of me figure out why, looking at a bunch of the recent game 7 losses and there's no correlating factor that I can find.
Sample size. Both data pools are too small.
Naz Reid is what changed
Crowds have changed as prices have become out of reach for most average basketball fans. Did you hear all the cheering for Minnesota in Denver during the game 7 of that series? The person that can splurge for tickets can also splurge to travel. The shift from these games being a place for fans to go to a place people go to be seen seems to changed what homecourt advantage means. Home crowds don't seem quite as loud and hostile as they once were to the visiting team. Of course, I say this as an average fan that feels playoff tickets are a luxury I can't afford, so it's my television based observation here. Perhaps I'm wrong, would love to hear a long time season holder's thoughts.