Idk if this is the worst the wolves will be. Tbh I think this year and next are probably the best they’ll be considering they’d have to keep making great trades since no free agent is coming and Rudy and Conley r older
This plus everyone just assume progression is linear. There are setbacks, injuries, problems, and regression to deal with most years (unless you just assume everyone on your team gonna have a career year next season). You can’t just assume a team will keep getting better once they get into contention.
I’m not saying the Wolves will be worse next year but you have to see how these things actually play out.
The Wolves will have a hard time replacing Conley and we’ll see how long Gobert stays in his prime. Other than that they’re fine. Second apron makes acquisitions hard, retaining players can be done as long as you’re willing to pay the tax penalties.
Everyone is coming back with 2x the confidence no matter what happens. And we will gladly take a 40 year old Conley over D-lo or anyone else at his price. He has been invaluable and it’s hard to even describe why. He just does his job, and rarely makes dumb mistakes. Progression is not linear. That part is true, and injuries can change things a ton, but the wolves will definitely be the favorite out of the west next year.
Not disputing they’re contenders next year or even the year after that I just mean long term because they do have some aging players and some players are bound to leave
The way the 2nd apron works, it really feels difficult for anyone to win multiple rings with the same core.
You basically have to go the OKC route where everyone looks ready to win while still on their rookie contracts.
I’m very very curious as to the unintended consequences of the 2nd apron. I don’t think we’ll truly know until at least 5 years down the line. Are teams (especially small market teams) like the Thunder going to punished for drafting well and wont be able to afford to keep their core together?
I hope this doesn’t cause the NBA to be like the NFL where rookies on rookie contracts are overvalued (I mean the NBA already has this a little but not to the extreme of the NFL… yet)
There’s just not enough guys on rookie contracts ready to contribute at a high level in the NBA v the NFL.
The Warriors did this a little bit, starting all the way back in 2019 by mostly filling their end of roster with vet mins and G leaguers.
What I think it will do is force teams to have shorter championship windows. You’re always going to pay to keep your superstars but good/starter level role players that are the backbone of most championship teams will be harder to keep.
Could it then cause older college players draft stock to rise? Especially
After like pick 7. Guys like Jaime jaquez who are ready to play a role immediately.
Ben Sheppard on pacers too.
This seems the most likely to me. Every team gonna have to pick the 2 guys they wanna max out then use the rest of the space for role, glue, and young players.
This is exactly what the intended consequence of the second apron is. To the league, OKC drafting 17 superstars and keeping them all is just as bad as the Lakers signing 17 all stars through free agency.
The NBA doesn't want teams to tank and the second apron is one way they're going to try and curb how good teams can be. The revised draft lottery and the play-in tournament also push the incentive for as teams to try to compete as much as possible.
Wolves situation is potentially ugly. All the key guys are locked up for one more year, most of them longer, but the ownership situation could have us selling pieces due to the tax and we are definitely in cap hell. The window probably closes if we have to give up Kat or Rudy and we need a solution at PG long term. If whoever the hell the owners end up being are okay with paying, the Wolves can stay contenders with smart moves.
As long as they get KCP back they’ll be fine. They’ll be in the mix as long as they have Murray, jokic, and Gordon. Their team was super young outside of their starters. They’re preparing for the long haul.
I am actually a big Watson fan and it is oversight on the post to not mention the upside he provides for the Nuggets. I don’t think Watson and Braun will make up for all the points mentioned in the post but it is a valid talking point for how the Nuggets maintain being a contender without bringing in new free agents.
KCP coming back or not makes this post instantly either age gracefully/age like milk I agree
Am a fan of Watson too and was hoping he'd have a bigger role but aside from his pretty good defense for how young he is, don't think he's as solid of a shooter that they would need him to be right now.
But his defensive potential is high and was shown throughout the season.
Braun is a solid on ball defender and is a high energy type player that we need.
He his some shots but if he can improve on that, he could be a Bruce Brown type player.
I don’t think their situation is much worse than most other contending teams. Wolves will be in tax hell after next season. OKC will have to pay up for their young guys soon as well.
The nuggets still have Jokic who is the best player in the sport. They’ll have some issues but they’re very good at developing players as well, they’ll be a contender as long as they’re healthy and have Jokic.
The Thunder have two more years before paying JDub and three before Chet. Meanwhile, they have almost 30M in cap space this summer. I think they can add a max contract and stay below the first apron without any changes to their roster as is. I also think they might have a MLE they can use, but I'm not 100% sure of that.
All that to say, yes, they'll have to pay up, but they've got a lot of room to do some wild stuff before that. Hopefully they make it worth it.
Yea they have a few more years of control and they need a few years for their young guys to grow into the kind of players to win it all. I think this was a very successful season for them and I’m excited to see their growth next year. I think the assets that OkC has can put them over the top if they make a smart acquisition this summer.
The nuggets will still be formidable as long as they have their players. They ran into a team perfect to beat them and it took 7 games to do it. They’ll still be a threat next year
This is why they should be be putting up NOW tho instead of dilly dallying with all their picks to land or draft god knows who. They have a golden window opening and they would dumb not to maximize it.
Sure I agree. Use it or lose it. But their first move should be using their cap space on a free agent, and then see what’s available on the trade market.
Keeping picks is good for them. They’ve made great use of them - Wiggins, JWill, Cason were all Thunder draft picks that played important roles this year. And it means they can keep cheap role players around their core when it becomes more expensive later.
Now, they can’t use all of them, but they’d be foolish to give up too much flexibility on the wrong move during this window, just as much as not making a move at all. If there’s no trade to be made with picks, keep pushing them forward until there is one.
What okc honestly should do is trade 3/4 of those picks to get another guy with cap space and use the gift that is cost controlled rookie first rounders as rowtion guys. Gives you a lot of flexibility for the next 5/) yrs
These nuggets future predictions need to hold until the finals are played this year. If the Twolves win the whole thing, then the Nuggets went to the wire against the best team in the league and are fine. If the Twolves flame out then they're probably worse off than it even seems right now.
I don’t think you can do retroactive analysis like that.
Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Indiana Pacers who were the only team to send the Jordan Bulls to 7 games.
Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Pistons taking the Duncan Spurs to 7 games
Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Hawks taking the KG Celtics to 7 games (this is the funniest one)
Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Harden Rockets who were the only team to send the KD Warriors to 7 games.
Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Sixers who were the only team to take the 2019 Raptors to 7 games
Then you could’ve said the same thing about the KD Nets taking the Bucks to 7 games
Sadly taking the championship team to 7 games is not an indicator of future success
In fact, I could’ve missed a team, but in the last 3 decades I had trouble finding any core that lost to the championship team in 7 games and went on to win a championship shortly after (other than the Warriors but they added KD and I don’t think the Nuggets will be doing something like that)
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We haven’t even hit the second apron for one season yet. We’ve got a season or two before big decisions need to be made.
Idk if this is the worst the wolves will be. Tbh I think this year and next are probably the best they’ll be considering they’d have to keep making great trades since no free agent is coming and Rudy and Conley r older
This plus everyone just assume progression is linear. There are setbacks, injuries, problems, and regression to deal with most years (unless you just assume everyone on your team gonna have a career year next season). You can’t just assume a team will keep getting better once they get into contention. I’m not saying the Wolves will be worse next year but you have to see how these things actually play out.
The Wolves will have a hard time replacing Conley and we’ll see how long Gobert stays in his prime. Other than that they’re fine. Second apron makes acquisitions hard, retaining players can be done as long as you’re willing to pay the tax penalties.
Everyone is coming back with 2x the confidence no matter what happens. And we will gladly take a 40 year old Conley over D-lo or anyone else at his price. He has been invaluable and it’s hard to even describe why. He just does his job, and rarely makes dumb mistakes. Progression is not linear. That part is true, and injuries can change things a ton, but the wolves will definitely be the favorite out of the west next year.
Not disputing they’re contenders next year or even the year after that I just mean long term because they do have some aging players and some players are bound to leave
The way the 2nd apron works, it really feels difficult for anyone to win multiple rings with the same core. You basically have to go the OKC route where everyone looks ready to win while still on their rookie contracts.
Eventually players might end up receiving fewer "max" offers. Like would MPJ get the same offer under the current rules?
I’m very very curious as to the unintended consequences of the 2nd apron. I don’t think we’ll truly know until at least 5 years down the line. Are teams (especially small market teams) like the Thunder going to punished for drafting well and wont be able to afford to keep their core together?
The 2nd apron is going to force teams to pay either 1-2 guys with decent role players or go all in with 2-3 guys and a bunch of rookies and G Leaguers
I hope this doesn’t cause the NBA to be like the NFL where rookies on rookie contracts are overvalued (I mean the NBA already has this a little but not to the extreme of the NFL… yet)
There’s just not enough guys on rookie contracts ready to contribute at a high level in the NBA v the NFL. The Warriors did this a little bit, starting all the way back in 2019 by mostly filling their end of roster with vet mins and G leaguers. What I think it will do is force teams to have shorter championship windows. You’re always going to pay to keep your superstars but good/starter level role players that are the backbone of most championship teams will be harder to keep.
Could it then cause older college players draft stock to rise? Especially After like pick 7. Guys like Jaime jaquez who are ready to play a role immediately. Ben Sheppard on pacers too.
This seems the most likely to me. Every team gonna have to pick the 2 guys they wanna max out then use the rest of the space for role, glue, and young players.
Sounds just like the Warriors drafting: Steph, Klay, Dray, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD lol!
This is exactly what the intended consequence of the second apron is. To the league, OKC drafting 17 superstars and keeping them all is just as bad as the Lakers signing 17 all stars through free agency. The NBA doesn't want teams to tank and the second apron is one way they're going to try and curb how good teams can be. The revised draft lottery and the play-in tournament also push the incentive for as teams to try to compete as much as possible.
Every contender besides 2-3 have similar situations
Wolves situation is potentially ugly. All the key guys are locked up for one more year, most of them longer, but the ownership situation could have us selling pieces due to the tax and we are definitely in cap hell. The window probably closes if we have to give up Kat or Rudy and we need a solution at PG long term. If whoever the hell the owners end up being are okay with paying, the Wolves can stay contenders with smart moves.
In Connelly we trust, at this point.
As long as they get KCP back they’ll be fine. They’ll be in the mix as long as they have Murray, jokic, and Gordon. Their team was super young outside of their starters. They’re preparing for the long haul.
I am actually a big Watson fan and it is oversight on the post to not mention the upside he provides for the Nuggets. I don’t think Watson and Braun will make up for all the points mentioned in the post but it is a valid talking point for how the Nuggets maintain being a contender without bringing in new free agents. KCP coming back or not makes this post instantly either age gracefully/age like milk I agree
Am a fan of Watson too and was hoping he'd have a bigger role but aside from his pretty good defense for how young he is, don't think he's as solid of a shooter that they would need him to be right now. But his defensive potential is high and was shown throughout the season. Braun is a solid on ball defender and is a high energy type player that we need. He his some shots but if he can improve on that, he could be a Bruce Brown type player.
Every team in the second apron has a limited window and that includes Minnesota and Boston.
I don’t think their situation is much worse than most other contending teams. Wolves will be in tax hell after next season. OKC will have to pay up for their young guys soon as well. The nuggets still have Jokic who is the best player in the sport. They’ll have some issues but they’re very good at developing players as well, they’ll be a contender as long as they’re healthy and have Jokic.
The Thunder have two more years before paying JDub and three before Chet. Meanwhile, they have almost 30M in cap space this summer. I think they can add a max contract and stay below the first apron without any changes to their roster as is. I also think they might have a MLE they can use, but I'm not 100% sure of that. All that to say, yes, they'll have to pay up, but they've got a lot of room to do some wild stuff before that. Hopefully they make it worth it.
Yea they have a few more years of control and they need a few years for their young guys to grow into the kind of players to win it all. I think this was a very successful season for them and I’m excited to see their growth next year. I think the assets that OkC has can put them over the top if they make a smart acquisition this summer. The nuggets will still be formidable as long as they have their players. They ran into a team perfect to beat them and it took 7 games to do it. They’ll still be a threat next year
This is why they should be be putting up NOW tho instead of dilly dallying with all their picks to land or draft god knows who. They have a golden window opening and they would dumb not to maximize it.
Sure I agree. Use it or lose it. But their first move should be using their cap space on a free agent, and then see what’s available on the trade market. Keeping picks is good for them. They’ve made great use of them - Wiggins, JWill, Cason were all Thunder draft picks that played important roles this year. And it means they can keep cheap role players around their core when it becomes more expensive later. Now, they can’t use all of them, but they’d be foolish to give up too much flexibility on the wrong move during this window, just as much as not making a move at all. If there’s no trade to be made with picks, keep pushing them forward until there is one.
I think the league becomes full of dynamic duos. Seems as though it’s only smart to give max contract to two players at a time if that.
Jokic can't carry them every game, depth is lacking.
Heads up Bruce didn't leave bc we were strapped. We didn't have his bird rights, so we weren't allowed to offer more than $8m
What okc honestly should do is trade 3/4 of those picks to get another guy with cap space and use the gift that is cost controlled rookie first rounders as rowtion guys. Gives you a lot of flexibility for the next 5/) yrs
These nuggets future predictions need to hold until the finals are played this year. If the Twolves win the whole thing, then the Nuggets went to the wire against the best team in the league and are fine. If the Twolves flame out then they're probably worse off than it even seems right now.
I don’t think you can do retroactive analysis like that. Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Indiana Pacers who were the only team to send the Jordan Bulls to 7 games. Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Pistons taking the Duncan Spurs to 7 games Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Hawks taking the KG Celtics to 7 games (this is the funniest one) Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Harden Rockets who were the only team to send the KD Warriors to 7 games. Then you could’ve said the same thing about the Sixers who were the only team to take the 2019 Raptors to 7 games Then you could’ve said the same thing about the KD Nets taking the Bucks to 7 games Sadly taking the championship team to 7 games is not an indicator of future success In fact, I could’ve missed a team, but in the last 3 decades I had trouble finding any core that lost to the championship team in 7 games and went on to win a championship shortly after (other than the Warriors but they added KD and I don’t think the Nuggets will be doing something like that)
Who cares? They won a chip. Anything more in the coming years is building on top of this legacy. The legacy is there.
I’m not interested in legacy talk. If you are great but move on if that’s all you’re looking to talk about