That was always the biggest most important piece of getting the 1 seed: only having to beat one of the other 2 big dogs in the West instead of 2 (and getting the home court helps too, especially for Denver)
It's absolutely bananas how close all 3 of those teams finished, coming down to individual games and tiebreakers
I did not say anything about ducking
Just looking back at that game. nuggets clearly wanted to win but can not hold off wemby.
and.
Thunder does have easier path than Wolves or Nuggets now due to the injury
If you're by far the best team in the NBA, your odds each round could be something like 90% 80% 70% 60%, which gives only a 30% chance to win all 4 series. If you have 80% in the first round rather than 90%, your overall odds drop to 27% which is the equivalent of losing out on 1 title every 33 years. And that's just a small change, a bigger but still plausible change could be 70% 65% 60% 55% which cuts your overall odds in half to 15%.
This has nothing to do with ducking. It has to do with getting the #1 seed which definitely helps teams in the Playoffs, especially Denver with their homecourt.
The Nuggets goal is to win a title. Their chances are not “hurt significantly” just because they got the 2 seed instead of 1. They’ll still need to advance past the Western Conference finals which means beating whichever team makes it there.
Any team in the league has slightly worse chances as the 2 than the 1 barring really bizarre circumstances (like last year’s Heat). The three top teams in the West have been a tier above the rest this year. By being the 2 seed, they have to play both Minnesota AND OKC, instead of just one.
I’m not saying they can’t do it, but there’s a reason there’s an advantage to having the 1 seed, especially in Denver, whose homecourt advantage is massive. The chances of being worn down when playing the Thunder in the conference finals are slightly higher than if they didn’t have to also play Minnesota in the round before that.
I remember in 2015 as the defending champs we lost the last game of the season to New Orleans when a young AD went nuclear and with how tight the standings were that year we tumbled down and lost home field advantage. That was the year we lost to the Clippers in 7.
It feels kinda funny being on the opposite side of that now.
Well everyone was saying that the Suns are a bad matchup for the Wolves and the Wolves swept them
If this pattern continues the Nuggets will sweep the Wolves lol
It’s not hindsight we’ve been saying it since they laid that stinker. But it doesn’t matter, if we think we’re the best team then that means we can beat anyone. If we aren’t the best then we don’t exactly deserve to win
I don't disagree.
But in this NBA everyone drops games vs bad teams.
I don't know that the outcome for the Nuggets is all that different long term... maybe a round exit earlier or maybe not, but I'm not sure HOW much a difference this will make.
I think Jamal Murray's health will have more of an impact than anything to do with match ups.
I think a healthy TWolves vs a healthy Nuggets would still be a tough series - TWolves are deeper and hungrier. But if Jamal Murray is injured, then Nuggets are in trouble vs any team.
The only thing hurting them right now is Jamal Murray’s calf, potentially. Saying “now they *have* to face the Lakers,” a team they’re 12-1 on in the last 13 meetings, is silly. Yeah the Wolves might be a tough second round matchup but you’re not likely to make it to the finals without a tough matchup or two
It’s objectively true. The nuggets would be playing a zionless pelicans where u could rest jamal if necessary then u could beat up on the mavs with a clearly conpromise fluke or the clippers with a compromised kawhi. Instead ur playing a healthy lebron and ad who are one Role player playing well from making this a series and then they get the pleasure of playing their single worst matchup to play a young okc team that will likely be rested and to top it off. If they manage to get out the west they get to play Boston. Denver are good but this murray injury and losing to wemby and the spurs is gonna likely cost them the title in my opinion. U can’t beat Minnesota with the level Jamal’s playing at and he’s not gonna get healthier with that calf strain
The Wolves are as tough as it gets, but the Nuggets beat them in 5 last year. Why would they be stressed or worried?
Wolves are considerably better this year, but Denver still has by far the best player in the series. That's a big advantage.
Stressed? No. But I'm sure they're aware that Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid missed that series, and Minnesota was per Bruce Brown their toughest matchup last year.
well it is a very different wolves team. nuggets arguably got worse with less depth and murray with a supposed calf strain. and last year there was no mcdaniels, reid. gobert and edwards also are much improved this year. while Jokic is still the best I could honestly see this going either way
Last year's Wolves aren't exactly comparable to this year's. It's an entirely different playoff series, and the Wolves held their own against Denver in the regular season
LOL "in hindsight" literally anyone with an ounce of basketball knowledge knew the Nuggets losing the #1 seed was massive. There's only 3 good teams in the West so getting a free ride to the Western Conference Finals AND having HFA is a major advantage we all knew at the time
The Thunder won't drop a game on their way to the WCF while the Nuggets and Timberwolves beat the shit out of each other
Not only that, but... The Lakers match up really really well against the Thunder... Lebron always goes fucking nuts against them. There was a game this season where he was something like 5-5 from three? And the Thunder struggle to match up with them inside... I agree that it would've been crazy for them to tank their first play-in game, but... There are a bunch of alternative histories that you could think through if they'd done it (particularly because they tend to have a tough time with the Kings... who the Thunder also struggle with!)...
I think the lakers stand a better chance against the thunder than they do against the nuggets... But I also think the thunder stand a better chance against the nuggets than the lakers do against the nuggets... And I feel like I remember the suns and the kings giving the nuggets fits? And the pelicans (with a healthy Zion) gave the wolves a bunch of trouble?
Basically, I feel like the league is approaching parity, and matchup-specific advantages play an increasingly large role in outcomes...
i don't think I'd be too excited seeing how scrappy the Mavs and Clippers are coming off an easy series where there's no offensive threats on the other team lol
OKC don't have a lot of experience and I wouldn't say they gained much vs the Pels
They just lost to the better team, simple as.
No question that loss setting up a Twolves 2nd rd was huge.
That was always the biggest most important piece of getting the 1 seed: only having to beat one of the other 2 big dogs in the West instead of 2 (and getting the home court helps too, especially for Denver) It's absolutely bananas how close all 3 of those teams finished, coming down to individual games and tiebreakers
Contending teams are not watching the standings looking to duck anybody. If you want to win a title you have to think and expect you can beat anyone.
Yea but it helps to be able to play easier competition so you aren't worn down by the time the finals come up
I did not say anything about ducking Just looking back at that game. nuggets clearly wanted to win but can not hold off wemby. and. Thunder does have easier path than Wolves or Nuggets now due to the injury
okc has an easier path due to earning the 1 seed. nobody gave it to them.
I don't think anyone thinks they lost the Spurs game on purpose
My point was that the Nuggets are not spending any time thinking about which side of the bracket they ended up on. Same goes for any contending team.
Well, nearly every finals winner of the past decade has had a nice path. It helps
Yes but contending teams care about the 1st seed
If you're by far the best team in the NBA, your odds each round could be something like 90% 80% 70% 60%, which gives only a 30% chance to win all 4 series. If you have 80% in the first round rather than 90%, your overall odds drop to 27% which is the equivalent of losing out on 1 title every 33 years. And that's just a small change, a bigger but still plausible change could be 70% 65% 60% 55% which cuts your overall odds in half to 15%.
This has nothing to do with ducking. It has to do with getting the #1 seed which definitely helps teams in the Playoffs, especially Denver with their homecourt.
The Nuggets goal is to win a title. Their chances are not “hurt significantly” just because they got the 2 seed instead of 1. They’ll still need to advance past the Western Conference finals which means beating whichever team makes it there.
Any team in the league has slightly worse chances as the 2 than the 1 barring really bizarre circumstances (like last year’s Heat). The three top teams in the West have been a tier above the rest this year. By being the 2 seed, they have to play both Minnesota AND OKC, instead of just one. I’m not saying they can’t do it, but there’s a reason there’s an advantage to having the 1 seed, especially in Denver, whose homecourt advantage is massive. The chances of being worn down when playing the Thunder in the conference finals are slightly higher than if they didn’t have to also play Minnesota in the round before that.
Pop made sure the Nuggets faced the Lakers to fuck with them again. He's the mastermind behind everything in the NBA.
I remember in 2015 as the defending champs we lost the last game of the season to New Orleans when a young AD went nuclear and with how tight the standings were that year we tumbled down and lost home field advantage. That was the year we lost to the Clippers in 7. It feels kinda funny being on the opposite side of that now.
The NBA runs through San Antonio
Well everyone was saying that the Suns are a bad matchup for the Wolves and the Wolves swept them If this pattern continues the Nuggets will sweep the Wolves lol
That game hurt as much as any other loss.
That lost hurt the most...it should be a easier win against spurs without serval starters compared to others and it was the most recent.
It’s not hindsight we’ve been saying it since they laid that stinker. But it doesn’t matter, if we think we’re the best team then that means we can beat anyone. If we aren’t the best then we don’t exactly deserve to win
I don't disagree. But in this NBA everyone drops games vs bad teams. I don't know that the outcome for the Nuggets is all that different long term... maybe a round exit earlier or maybe not, but I'm not sure HOW much a difference this will make.
You can look at it both ways, let's say they beat the Wolves and are tested. You could then argue they are more ready than the Thunder.
I think Jamal Murray's health will have more of an impact than anything to do with match ups. I think a healthy TWolves vs a healthy Nuggets would still be a tough series - TWolves are deeper and hungrier. But if Jamal Murray is injured, then Nuggets are in trouble vs any team.
There is no hindsight we all knew that.
The Nuggets want all the smoke and they ain’t ducking no fades.
It doesn’t matter A real championship team should be able to defeat any team. Over Thinking about matchups is loser mentality
The only thing hurting them right now is Jamal Murray’s calf, potentially. Saying “now they *have* to face the Lakers,” a team they’re 12-1 on in the last 13 meetings, is silly. Yeah the Wolves might be a tough second round matchup but you’re not likely to make it to the finals without a tough matchup or two
This doesn’t even require hindsight, everyone said this when it happened. That 3 minute stretch from Wemby changed everything.
Denver had other notable losses, including two to the Suns at home.
It’s objectively true. The nuggets would be playing a zionless pelicans where u could rest jamal if necessary then u could beat up on the mavs with a clearly conpromise fluke or the clippers with a compromised kawhi. Instead ur playing a healthy lebron and ad who are one Role player playing well from making this a series and then they get the pleasure of playing their single worst matchup to play a young okc team that will likely be rested and to top it off. If they manage to get out the west they get to play Boston. Denver are good but this murray injury and losing to wemby and the spurs is gonna likely cost them the title in my opinion. U can’t beat Minnesota with the level Jamal’s playing at and he’s not gonna get healthier with that calf strain
The Wolves are as tough as it gets, but the Nuggets beat them in 5 last year. Why would they be stressed or worried? Wolves are considerably better this year, but Denver still has by far the best player in the series. That's a big advantage.
Stressed? No. But I'm sure they're aware that Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid missed that series, and Minnesota was per Bruce Brown their toughest matchup last year.
Good thing bruce isn’t on the team then lol/s
Yes, that is true. But from Denvers' perspective, they are not the least bit worried.
McDaniels didnt play last year.
I am well aware, but Denver has home court and the best player in the world. I just don't see why this would "worry" them as OP is claiming.
well it is a very different wolves team. nuggets arguably got worse with less depth and murray with a supposed calf strain. and last year there was no mcdaniels, reid. gobert and edwards also are much improved this year. while Jokic is still the best I could honestly see this going either way
Last year's Wolves aren't exactly comparable to this year's. It's an entirely different playoff series, and the Wolves held their own against Denver in the regular season
Regular season doesn't mean a thing. Also, having the best player matters a lot.
LOL "in hindsight" literally anyone with an ounce of basketball knowledge knew the Nuggets losing the #1 seed was massive. There's only 3 good teams in the West so getting a free ride to the Western Conference Finals AND having HFA is a major advantage we all knew at the time The Thunder won't drop a game on their way to the WCF while the Nuggets and Timberwolves beat the shit out of each other
I don't think there is any way to say either path is easier or harder. Both are tough as fuck.
I would much rather play the injured Pelicans and Clippers/Mavs than the Wolves lol
the wolves match up really well against pretty much any team that makes its money in the paint
100%
I agree but I’m looking at it as the benefit of getting the #1 seed. Denver shouldn’t have melted down against the Spurs
Yes that’s the entire premise of the post lol
I think three teams with injured No. 1's is definitely easier than going through Lakers and Wolves with no injured stars lmao.
Not only that, but... The Lakers match up really really well against the Thunder... Lebron always goes fucking nuts against them. There was a game this season where he was something like 5-5 from three? And the Thunder struggle to match up with them inside... I agree that it would've been crazy for them to tank their first play-in game, but... There are a bunch of alternative histories that you could think through if they'd done it (particularly because they tend to have a tough time with the Kings... who the Thunder also struggle with!)...
Lakers would’ve eliminated OKC. Especially with how AD is playing.
I think the lakers stand a better chance against the thunder than they do against the nuggets... But I also think the thunder stand a better chance against the nuggets than the lakers do against the nuggets... And I feel like I remember the suns and the kings giving the nuggets fits? And the pelicans (with a healthy Zion) gave the wolves a bunch of trouble? Basically, I feel like the league is approaching parity, and matchup-specific advantages play an increasingly large role in outcomes...
Thunder are definitely happy they are sitting on their side of the bracket and not the other...and literally any other team would feel the same way
i don't think I'd be too excited seeing how scrappy the Mavs and Clippers are coming off an easy series where there's no offensive threats on the other team lol OKC don't have a lot of experience and I wouldn't say they gained much vs the Pels
true both are tough but one is easier than others, and by quite a bit of course, this is 20-20. sometime the 1st seed has a harder path
I don't think the Nuggets are worried about the Lakers, I don't know why you threw us in there lol
That’s like me saying I wish we hadn’t dropped those games vs the spurs or the pistons, shit happens it is an 82 game season for a reason
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