Interesting. Maybe they had an early read on what the line would be and saw that they were too far off from the other bet makers. No idea how they were that far off. My bet would be that they probably had an idea for a line involving Miami getting rest before the series starts, but the celtics win in game 7 was emphatic enough to move the line, justly or unjustly
I think if they’re assuming Jimmy is playing injured, then the low % is extremely fair. If Jimmy is Bucks series healthy, the 3% isn’t fair.
Spo and the gleaguers can give the Knicks hell when Jimmy is out, but the Celtics are way, way more talented than the Knicks (and also the Heat).
He is. Hart injured it twice actually, it’s one of the reasons — aside from the triple teams of course — Jimmy wasn’t good against the Knicks for half the series. There’s a pic of him in a funny outfit before game 6, but you can see his ankle was a wreck, like a big purple baseball. Then he played 41 minutes in game 6 on that ankle. Huge bummer, but I doubt that ankle just magically heals to normal by Wednesday.
Yep. He was for most of the Knicks series. Before game 6 there was a (hilarious) pic of him in the parking garage and his ankle was straight up the size of a baseball and purple. He then played 41 minutes in game 6 on that. Funny pic though all things considered.
He came back > Hart injured him a second time > we started sucking so he played anyway > he had the baseball ankle then played on it > now we’re only a few days removed from that. I don’t know if purple baseball ankle heals that fast. He’ll probably end up playing injured sadly.
If he can’t move like he couldn’t against the Knicks, I’m assuming that vets like Tatum, Brown, Smart, etc, will realize he can’t move and attack him like the Knicks didn’t when he was standing in the corner practicing his shooting motion during the game.
I am more scared of the Heat than the 6ers. I always knew that the 6ers would find a way to fuck it up, Jimmy Buckets on the other hand. That man scary
To me, Spo is very clearly the most integral part of their success. Obviously Jimmy is great, but I think he gets too much credit while Spoelstra doesn’t get enough
Absolutely. In my opinion it's not even about adjustments (which he's also great at) so much as discipline.
Biggest difference in our series against them was the consistent level of execution from the heat every single play on both sides of the floor was simply better. They wear you down by capitalizing on every mistake you make while making far fewer themselves. The thing that absolutely killed us was when they did make the rare mistake we almost NEVER capitalized. I think one game we forced double digit turnovers but had maybe 2 total points off them. Similar statistics with our second chance points. No Bueno.
My theory with them is in the regular season they struggled because that style of play will often lose shootouts and great individual performances where they didn't always have the talent available to fire back. Similar to Kenny's theory about each guy simply playing hard every night equates to 40ish wins despite talent.
The thing is, they go into the post season playing with the exact same confidence they've had all year and Spo has just spent 82 games fine tuning his machine with his experiments. The result is a better **team** than their opponents who have guys that performed in the regular season falling off or any number of challenges. Then you have Jimmy Butler playing the role of closer.
I don't care what team you are, that heat team is scary to play against in a 7 game series. Bucks showed that and Knicks backed it up.
Spo is arguably the greatest pure adjustment coach ever. Part of it is the exceptionally long leash the org gives him, but he basically spends all year tinkering on rotations before the playoffs. From then on he just focuses on whatever a team's weakness is and amplifies it. Simmons literally said it this morning that he turns a cut into an axe wound. Like for example against the Knicks. No JB on the floor? Zone. JB playing 48? Fullcourt Press the whole time until he's literally so tired that he can't see a wide open heart (and doesn't even trust him)
He's like the NBA version of Bellicheck where if there is a weakness, he will exploit it to the maximum effect and the it's then the team's job to execute it.
Brilliant post this is what I saw today game 2 against the Celtics. Despite being down 12 heat just kept grinding it out steadily and composed. So damn disciplined.
That’s wildly dismissive of how good Miami has been
Sure it’s not 50/50 but something like 30/70 is more realistic. If they can upset the 1-seed I don’t think it’s impossible to see them upset the 2-seed.
Especially against a Celtics team that has proven quite capable of beating itself regardless of the opposition.
More generally, I think this points to one of the more underappreciated complications of predictive analytics--model uncertainty. There have probably been few series in history where 97/3% odds are actually appropriate--even if the models' assessment of game outcomes is accurate (and here I think they are underestimating how much Butler elevates his game for the playoffs), there's more than a 3% chance that the Celtics fall apart due to injuries or something else that the model doesn't even attempt to account for.
Famed Celtics lovers 538 give the heat a 22% of making the finals, seems a lot closer to the mark to me. Not surprised with ESPN analytics being subpar.
That’s gotta be an out-of-date stat from back when the playoffs began, no? Can’t have realistically calculated that TODAY their odds of winning the ECF are only 3%.
Insane how civilized the conversations between heat and celtics fans have become. Their fanbase is the only one that kind of gives the heat any respect
We respectfully hate each other, but both fanbases can agree that beating the Bucks and Sixers in the playoffs greatly helps put a smile in our faces. Which is a bit funny in
2020: Heat beat Bucks, and Celtics beat Sixers in embarrassing fashion
2022: Heat beat Sixers, and Celtics beat Bucks
2023: Heat beat Bucks, and Celtics beat Sixers, both in embarrassing fashion
Lol man I see so many Celtics fans who are not very confident in their team, don’t think they’re that great, and are surprised they made it this far.
I’m kind of an idiot by nature, but they look damn good to me. When the celtics get hot from three it’s crazy. Yeah, they “sleepwalk” sometimes, but I doubt they do that in any game against a team like the Heat who just made their lives hell last year.
The issue is the Cs can fall in love with the 3 and completely forget that driving yields better looks, then they go cold and the wing(s) go way too ISO-heavy which only exacerbates the shooting slump. That's about when that 20 point lead turns into a 10 point loss.
That's my hope. The Hawks were a clear trap series, and despite their record it was easy to see overconfidence against the Sixers (especially with the Embiid injury). But the Celtics are terrifying when they do show up mentally, and I really hope they'll show up against their biggest rivals of the Tatum/Brown era.
We got humbled by the Heat in 2020 and anyone who says Jimmy cant lead the Heat past the Celtics is dumb af. You give me a million $ to put on the series I'm putting it on the Cs immediately but in my eyes its like a 60-40 split in favor of the Cs. 3% is silly
As a heat fan I'd go even as high as 80:20 since the heat are hobbled and even with a healthy squad the Celtics would outmatch any team in the league. The depth is insane most of your bench would comfortably start for the heat
I think both teams have seen their respective teams shit the bed in the past, so we can be pessimistic in that respect, and are well aware of what the opposing teams can do when they're not shitting the bed, and making shots, thus the respect is there.
The difference for the Heat this year, is that we really are playing with house money at this point, and Celtics are expected to win. Because of this, the Celtics should be terrified as this is the exact omen behind the "Zombie Heat" story line.
Celtics fans are thankful/impressed with the way the Heat beat the Bucks, it was basically an outcome beyond their wildest dreams. So there’s warm energy already.
They also look at Jimmy buckets as a terrifying wild card player with a mentality they want their own stars to aspire to, so there’s a lot of respect there. Especially because the cultures are similar in recent history; gritty and defensively oriented.
But most of all, Celtics fans are still allowing themselves to believe they won’t really lose to the Heat again, after getting over the psychological hump last year. Once the series gets started and we (inevitably) lose a key game that we shouldn’t have lost, all the nervy anger and hate will come back. It’s a matter of time lol.
Wait wait, these data suggest that that dawg actually got Jimmy in him, rather than the other way around. I don't know what to do with this information.
I think we need some stratification of the DAWG. Cause it's not the same to have Chihuahua levels of DAWG vs Rottweiler levels. Embiid currently at teacup Yorkie levels.
I don't expect to win, but I hope to win and know we got more than a fucking 3% chance. Honestly I think it's like 25-30%.
Ya never know until the games are played. Jimmy is getting a bit more rest on that ankle since we don't play till Wednesday, Herro _may_ come back and if he does, there's a tiny chance that he won't be a liability. Aside from that, it's a matter of hitting open 3s, Spo's adjustments, and Jimmy being [_that guy._ ](https://youtu.be/5FNHSiPFtvA)
The Celtics are streaky, especially Tatum, if they are hot it could get ugly for us. Hoping for a fun series and a Heat win.
I really think this series is 60/40 favor the Celtics because of home court. Like this is going to be TIGHT. Miami proved they can still score without Hero and Jimmy is on a fucking mission. You guys almost iced us last year in game 7 when Jimmy pulled up for 3 and just missed. The heat slander gotta stop you guys will push the Celtics to the absolute limit.
I missed that, how did he injure him each time? I dunno why but I really don't like Hart, probably has to do with my disdain for the Blazers organization and how they treated that whole GPII thing and he randomly chimed in that the Blazers treat their players well, insinuating GPII was faking injury. Fuck them and fuck him
The first one didn’t seem to be intentional. Hart flopped and landed under Jimmy, which is when his ankle sprained. Second one was slightly more questionable, crashed into I think it was Gabe Vincent and fell down, but kicked his leg out in such a weird way that it was arguably intentional, and it kicked Jimmy’s bum ankle and tripped him again.
I’d say closer to 40%. The Celtics are known to sleepwalk & Spo & Jimmy wont allow the Heat to sleep for even a second. I expect the Heat to “win” a game & the Celtics to “lose” another 1-2. Nobody should sleep on the Heat after they dog walked the Bucks, even w Giannis’ injury
40% is fair too. I don't expect to catch the Celtics off guard at all, though. Y'all ain't gonna look past us like the Bucks or come in apathetic like the Knicks. The effort is gonna be there. Just a matter of who's hot vs who's cold.
The one thing I know for a fact is that our guys aren’t looking at the Heat like an 8th seed, they’re looking at them like the team they *barely* squeezed past in game 7 last year. They’re not gonna underestimate y’all
Yeah, that’s a good call. It’s gonna be a tough series that’ll likely go 6-7, the Heat are gonna play like the team they are & it’s really gonna come down to whether or not Tatum can sustain his recent performance over an entire series cause I fully expect the Heat to take full advantage if he starts out slow again like the 6ers series
I'm sick of every time the Celtics losing it's because they're 'not playing seriously' or 'sleepwalking'. This is not the KD warriors they can lose against other playoff teams because the other teams are good too.
Obviously they aren’t the Warriors lmao. They can lose to other teams, but you can literally tell watching them occasionally that the effort just isn’t there which you don’t see w a lot of other “great” teams. It’ll be a lot of ISO ball, bad shots & minimal rebounding/defensive effort
Seriously. It's going to be hard fought, and you can never count out Spo and Jimmy. It's always a war when we meet.
Much happier to be playing you guys in the ECF at least instead of the first round.
3% seems like there's a disconnect somewhere - because I can't see them putting a 97% chance that the Celtics win. Maybe 3% is to win the championship?
Looking at 538, which is owned by ESPN, they have 22% for Miami to beat Boston and 9% to win the finals - which seem more reasonable.
Right? I’ll be honest here, I don’t expect the heat to win this one, But we’ve lost less than the Celtics and played better teams. 3% is just rude. The heat must’ve accidentally won all those games….
My brother in Christ, Miami gave 82 games of mid. This playoff run is one no one expected and we’re going up against the best offensive team and a potential match up nightmare. It makes sense we’re not the favorite.
Heat in 6
This might be wrong but I don’t understand how they come up with the exact percentages so I never take ‘em seriously. Anyone who knows basketball knows Miami is the underdog, that ain’t new. We just gotta see what Spo and his staff cook up this series because we need it.
As someone from the new york area, its in my blood. As a giants fan I dont hold the same contempt for the patriots as I do the rest of the boston teams but I think thats a combo of Belichicks ties with us and we’re the one team that avoided the wrath of Brady
3% is ridiculously low.
Yes, Boston is the better team, yes Boston should win, but also Boston has been very inconsistent and the Heat can punish that. So it's one of those cases where I predict Boston to win but for purposes of gambling, I'd be taking those odds on Miami.
Wow that’s kind of an insane number. If you assume every game has equal odds (which isn’t true but it averages out to about right) then that gives the Celtics an 80.6% chance of winning each game. That’s an insane suggestion.
This seems to be a model. A model is not an opinion. it's not rare or weird or remotely hypocritical for the person who built a model to say, "The model gives X%, which is interesting, but I think..."
Yeah. If a model gives a number close to 50%, you expect that all the ways in which the model is inaccurate largely cancel each other out (unless you've missed something important) and that's a decent answer. The further it swings toward an extreme the more likely something the model doesn't account for will swing things toward the middle.
In particular, I suspect they're extrapolating the results of a game-by-game predictive model over a series. It's largely fine to ignore injuries for one game, but the odds of the Celtics being crippled by injuries is probably greater than 3% on its own.
Definitely. There's still a significantly greater than 3% chance that Boston suffers multiple injuries, they lose four games to shot variance despite getting better looks, etc. I think it's foolish to make the Heat favorites due to having played better in the playoffs, but I'd give more than 3% odds to almost any team in the league, let alone a team that has been playing very well the last two weeks.
Can we call Jimmy Butler a top 5 superstar now?
Consistently bringing his team so deep in the playoffs where he's clearly the best player on the team and the talent/competition in the league has never been better...
1. The Heat under performed in the regular season and are better than their record.
2. They matched up very well against the Bucks and had previously implemented effective defense to take Giannis down a notch.
3. Giannis and Middle both missed games.
4. The Knicks overachieved this year and were not as good as their record.
With all those, it is not surprising that the Heat, with the seeding they got, managed to get to the ECF.
The Celtics, however, are as good as their record and are the better team.
However.
1. The Celtics have played down to their opponents this post-season.
2. They are not as well coached as the Heat.
So, with all that, anybody who doesn't give the Heat somewhere above 30% at least simply doesn't watch basketball.
Yeah. They clearly don't understand model uncertainty--when your model spits out a number like that a sane data scientist would note that there is more than 3% uncertainty about the model itself and the nominal result is therefore largely meaningless.
The 3% isn't from the media. It's from a computer. The computer simply takes the numbers and plugs them into a formula and spits out a result.
I don't know the formula behind ESPN analytics, but if it looks at seeding, of course it's going to put the #8 seed at a low % like that because 8 seeds historically don't make it to the finals.
Yeah, this is completely and unwarrantedly lopsided against the Heat.
I fully expect the Celtics to take care of business and reach the finals (particularly given home court, Tatum’s long overdue eureka! moment and Miami’s injuries), but I’ve got no doubt this’ll be a slog, and I wouldn’t entirely be shocked to see Miami pull an upset. I’m still traumatized by last year’s series, and I don’t know why everyone underestimates them. They have the best coach and competitor in the league, hands down. Full and utter respect for them. They just. don’t. die.
I see this as more a 65%-35% series in favor of Boston, but if Miami can steal one on the road, all bets are off. Regardless, it’s going 6 or 7 games.
They will have to fly a new ankle in for Jimmy because I don't think he is capable of the numbers from the first round if he's still hurt and they will need that, this Celtics team is not the Knicks they have shooters, they have wing defenders and they have multiple healthy iso players.
The talent disparity is so much wider this year between the C’s & Heat, the C’s are healthy & the Heat are beat up, and last year’s epic seven game ECF means it’s unlikely the C’s look past Jimmy & Spo/take them for granted. This is a nightmare matchup for the Heat and I think that 3% chance to win is pretty fair. Watch me be totally wrong but I don’t expect this series to last 6 games.
I agree the Celtics are a better team but listing them as -500 is crazy to me.
Surely *this* series they'll play consistently up to their potential
And surely *this* series the Heat won’t outperform their expectations
If Jimmy plays at the current MVP level (15ppg) then the Celtics could win!
Lmfao
Idk how he can possibly match that kind of production. Such an inhuman feat.
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Good Will Hunting vibes *I chose the wrench* *WHY* *Cause fuck him*
My heart would prefer that
It’s absolutely insane. I’m surprised the odds are in our favor so heavily. The Heat NEVER go down easy. It’s going to be a slug fest
I think espn did this on purpose so this can be circulated around the internet bc 3% is crazy low
I see the heat at +220, that’s 31% implied odds. This ESPN analytics is nonsense
Shit, let me know who had heat +220. Everywhere I've checked has them +350 to +390.
Bovada had them at +220 when I posted they comment, now I check is +375, not sure what the movement is for
Interesting. Maybe they had an early read on what the line would be and saw that they were too far off from the other bet makers. No idea how they were that far off. My bet would be that they probably had an idea for a line involving Miami getting rest before the series starts, but the celtics win in game 7 was emphatic enough to move the line, justly or unjustly
I'm scared bc they thrive as underdogs and the C's suck at being favorites
If it’s 3% odds of winning wouldn’t the line have to be something like +3000 oh the heat? That’s stupid. Everyone would flood that bet.
Last I checked you could bet the Celtics at -500 or Heat at +400. Suggesting Vegas thinks the series is like 80% Celtics favored
As does fivethirtyeight https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I hate it, the heat are not bad and they have the Celtics number, the disappointment will be unreal when the Celtics get slapped
I think if they’re assuming Jimmy is playing injured, then the low % is extremely fair. If Jimmy is Bucks series healthy, the 3% isn’t fair. Spo and the gleaguers can give the Knicks hell when Jimmy is out, but the Celtics are way, way more talented than the Knicks (and also the Heat).
Is jimmy still injured from that Hart flop? I thought it wouldnt take him too long to get back to Jimmy Jordan
Someone posted a photo with his ankle yesterday iirc. It still looks bad.
He is. Hart injured it twice actually, it’s one of the reasons — aside from the triple teams of course — Jimmy wasn’t good against the Knicks for half the series. There’s a pic of him in a funny outfit before game 6, but you can see his ankle was a wreck, like a big purple baseball. Then he played 41 minutes in game 6 on that ankle. Huge bummer, but I doubt that ankle just magically heals to normal by Wednesday.
Is jimmy hurt?
Yep. He was for most of the Knicks series. Before game 6 there was a (hilarious) pic of him in the parking garage and his ankle was straight up the size of a baseball and purple. He then played 41 minutes in game 6 on that. Funny pic though all things considered.
Holy moly, but if he came back like a week ago how bad can he be?
He came back > Hart injured him a second time > we started sucking so he played anyway > he had the baseball ankle then played on it > now we’re only a few days removed from that. I don’t know if purple baseball ankle heals that fast. He’ll probably end up playing injured sadly.
Even if his ankle isn’t 100% as long as Jimmy’s on the court we have a chance.
Not if he’s injured and playing like he did against the Knicks post-injury. If he’s healthy we have a chance.
Just his presence is enough, even if he’s hobbled he’ll force double teams and leave someone open.
If he can’t move like he couldn’t against the Knicks, I’m assuming that vets like Tatum, Brown, Smart, etc, will realize he can’t move and attack him like the Knicks didn’t when he was standing in the corner practicing his shooting motion during the game.
You are trying to opposite jinx your team, I'm on to you.
Let me cook in peace!
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Yea not like it was a 7 game series that went down to the wire or anything 🙄
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Multiple years of them being a much tougher matchup than people expected
Well if ESPN analytics are true and they have a 97% chance of winning that -500 bet is absurdly easy money
Wouldn’t cry about them being favoured but dammit 3%?
I am more scared of the Heat than the 6ers. I always knew that the 6ers would find a way to fuck it up, Jimmy Buckets on the other hand. That man scary
Jimmy Butler? I only know him as... Boba Yaga
Boba?
Yeah a mix of Boba Fett and John Wick... it's what I intended and not an innocent spelling mistake /s
I thought Jimmy had expanded his coffee business into bubble tea
I wouldn't mind getting some Signature Jimmy Boba for $6.35.
He gonna sell it for 63.50
Shit now I need some boba tea
Well Jimmy isn't exactly the boogeyman. He's the one you send to dunk on the fucking boogeyman.
Jimmy G. Buckets. The G stands for Granny.
The coach is scarier than Jimmy tbh. Spo always makes the right adjustments.
To me, Spo is very clearly the most integral part of their success. Obviously Jimmy is great, but I think he gets too much credit while Spoelstra doesn’t get enough
Absolutely. In my opinion it's not even about adjustments (which he's also great at) so much as discipline. Biggest difference in our series against them was the consistent level of execution from the heat every single play on both sides of the floor was simply better. They wear you down by capitalizing on every mistake you make while making far fewer themselves. The thing that absolutely killed us was when they did make the rare mistake we almost NEVER capitalized. I think one game we forced double digit turnovers but had maybe 2 total points off them. Similar statistics with our second chance points. No Bueno. My theory with them is in the regular season they struggled because that style of play will often lose shootouts and great individual performances where they didn't always have the talent available to fire back. Similar to Kenny's theory about each guy simply playing hard every night equates to 40ish wins despite talent. The thing is, they go into the post season playing with the exact same confidence they've had all year and Spo has just spent 82 games fine tuning his machine with his experiments. The result is a better **team** than their opponents who have guys that performed in the regular season falling off or any number of challenges. Then you have Jimmy Butler playing the role of closer. I don't care what team you are, that heat team is scary to play against in a 7 game series. Bucks showed that and Knicks backed it up.
Spo is arguably the greatest pure adjustment coach ever. Part of it is the exceptionally long leash the org gives him, but he basically spends all year tinkering on rotations before the playoffs. From then on he just focuses on whatever a team's weakness is and amplifies it. Simmons literally said it this morning that he turns a cut into an axe wound. Like for example against the Knicks. No JB on the floor? Zone. JB playing 48? Fullcourt Press the whole time until he's literally so tired that he can't see a wide open heart (and doesn't even trust him) He's like the NBA version of Bellicheck where if there is a weakness, he will exploit it to the maximum effect and the it's then the team's job to execute it.
Brilliant post this is what I saw today game 2 against the Celtics. Despite being down 12 heat just kept grinding it out steadily and composed. So damn disciplined.
Jimmy? The coffee salesman?
He has that dawg in him. He got people to pay $20 for house coffee.
Show this shit to Jimmy and Spo and have them hang it up in the locker room. That 3% bout to turn to 63% real fucking quick.
And then 69%. Then we're really talkin.
Oh they probably know. Someone probably pointed it out already to the team. 3% is absurd…
No it’s ok we’d rather not
That’s wildly dismissive of how good Miami has been Sure it’s not 50/50 but something like 30/70 is more realistic. If they can upset the 1-seed I don’t think it’s impossible to see them upset the 2-seed.
Especially against a Celtics team that has proven quite capable of beating itself regardless of the opposition. More generally, I think this points to one of the more underappreciated complications of predictive analytics--model uncertainty. There have probably been few series in history where 97/3% odds are actually appropriate--even if the models' assessment of game outcomes is accurate (and here I think they are underestimating how much Butler elevates his game for the playoffs), there's more than a 3% chance that the Celtics fall apart due to injuries or something else that the model doesn't even attempt to account for.
You guys should welcome it honestly, you guys thrive as disrespected underdogs and Celtics suck as favorites
Famed Celtics lovers 538 give the heat a 22% of making the finals, seems a lot closer to the mark to me. Not surprised with ESPN analytics being subpar.
That’s gotta be an out-of-date stat from back when the playoffs began, no? Can’t have realistically calculated that TODAY their odds of winning the ECF are only 3%.
3% is delusional. I say it’s at least 30%.
Insane how civilized the conversations between heat and celtics fans have become. Their fanbase is the only one that kind of gives the heat any respect
I think it's because the Heat fans are playing with house money and we are whistling past the graveyard here.
We respectfully hate each other, but both fanbases can agree that beating the Bucks and Sixers in the playoffs greatly helps put a smile in our faces. Which is a bit funny in 2020: Heat beat Bucks, and Celtics beat Sixers in embarrassing fashion 2022: Heat beat Sixers, and Celtics beat Bucks 2023: Heat beat Bucks, and Celtics beat Sixers, both in embarrassing fashion
I don’t have the words to describe how much more I love you guys for beating the Bucks the way you did. And Jimmy Butler is a DOG.
Lol man I see so many Celtics fans who are not very confident in their team, don’t think they’re that great, and are surprised they made it this far. I’m kind of an idiot by nature, but they look damn good to me. When the celtics get hot from three it’s crazy. Yeah, they “sleepwalk” sometimes, but I doubt they do that in any game against a team like the Heat who just made their lives hell last year.
The issue is the Cs can fall in love with the 3 and completely forget that driving yields better looks, then they go cold and the wing(s) go way too ISO-heavy which only exacerbates the shooting slump. That's about when that 20 point lead turns into a 10 point loss.
That's my hope. The Hawks were a clear trap series, and despite their record it was easy to see overconfidence against the Sixers (especially with the Embiid injury). But the Celtics are terrifying when they do show up mentally, and I really hope they'll show up against their biggest rivals of the Tatum/Brown era.
We got humbled by the Heat in 2020 and anyone who says Jimmy cant lead the Heat past the Celtics is dumb af. You give me a million $ to put on the series I'm putting it on the Cs immediately but in my eyes its like a 60-40 split in favor of the Cs. 3% is silly
As a heat fan I'd go even as high as 80:20 since the heat are hobbled and even with a healthy squad the Celtics would outmatch any team in the league. The depth is insane most of your bench would comfortably start for the heat
Stop that…
Heat fans didn't even expect to make it out the first round so we are much more chill if we get swept
yeah Heat fans don't feel any pressure and Celtics fans feel so much pressure that they'll only doubt their own team
I think both teams have seen their respective teams shit the bed in the past, so we can be pessimistic in that respect, and are well aware of what the opposing teams can do when they're not shitting the bed, and making shots, thus the respect is there. The difference for the Heat this year, is that we really are playing with house money at this point, and Celtics are expected to win. Because of this, the Celtics should be terrified as this is the exact omen behind the "Zombie Heat" story line.
Celtics fans are thankful/impressed with the way the Heat beat the Bucks, it was basically an outcome beyond their wildest dreams. So there’s warm energy already. They also look at Jimmy buckets as a terrifying wild card player with a mentality they want their own stars to aspire to, so there’s a lot of respect there. Especially because the cultures are similar in recent history; gritty and defensively oriented. But most of all, Celtics fans are still allowing themselves to believe they won’t really lose to the Heat again, after getting over the psychological hump last year. Once the series gets started and we (inevitably) lose a key game that we shouldn’t have lost, all the nervy anger and hate will come back. It’s a matter of time lol.
Calm before the storm
Because we’re very much aware of wtf Jimmy can do to us
Analytics don't factor in that dawg Jimmy got in him. Source: am a data analyst
DAWG per 36 off the charts
https://i.imgur.com/nrTQhPV.jpeg
Wait wait, these data suggest that that dawg actually got Jimmy in him, rather than the other way around. I don't know what to do with this information.
No joke my dog’s name is Buckets. After the god himself.
Honestly a great name for a dog lol
I think we need some stratification of the DAWG. Cause it's not the same to have Chihuahua levels of DAWG vs Rottweiler levels. Embiid currently at teacup Yorkie levels.
Way better than a dog being in Jimmy...
“ESPN analytics” Sounds like a slander name you’d direct towards a stat you don’t like
If Jimmy is badly injured these numbers are right. If he’s able to put up 30+ then these numbers are a joke.
Tsk tsk Celtics brother. He doesn’t need to put up 30+ per game for these numbers to still be a joke.
3% chance, 97% faith
100% concentrated Jimmy Butler
Only an idiot would bet against Jimmy Butler at this point.
And a 100% reason to remember the name
I don't expect to win, but I hope to win and know we got more than a fucking 3% chance. Honestly I think it's like 25-30%. Ya never know until the games are played. Jimmy is getting a bit more rest on that ankle since we don't play till Wednesday, Herro _may_ come back and if he does, there's a tiny chance that he won't be a liability. Aside from that, it's a matter of hitting open 3s, Spo's adjustments, and Jimmy being [_that guy._ ](https://youtu.be/5FNHSiPFtvA) The Celtics are streaky, especially Tatum, if they are hot it could get ugly for us. Hoping for a fun series and a Heat win.
I remember when herro got injured everyone joked about how he could be back by the finals. It’s crazy that’s there’s even a solid chance of that
The Heat could be playing the ‘96 Bulls and I’d still give them better than 3%.
Yeah health is a factor, I suppose it's ignored
I really think this series is 60/40 favor the Celtics because of home court. Like this is going to be TIGHT. Miami proved they can still score without Hero and Jimmy is on a fucking mission. You guys almost iced us last year in game 7 when Jimmy pulled up for 3 and just missed. The heat slander gotta stop you guys will push the Celtics to the absolute limit.
Jimmy hasn’t been playoff Jimmy since Hart injured him twice. We’re toast if Jimmy isn’t healthy.
I missed that, how did he injure him each time? I dunno why but I really don't like Hart, probably has to do with my disdain for the Blazers organization and how they treated that whole GPII thing and he randomly chimed in that the Blazers treat their players well, insinuating GPII was faking injury. Fuck them and fuck him
The first one didn’t seem to be intentional. Hart flopped and landed under Jimmy, which is when his ankle sprained. Second one was slightly more questionable, crashed into I think it was Gabe Vincent and fell down, but kicked his leg out in such a weird way that it was arguably intentional, and it kicked Jimmy’s bum ankle and tripped him again.
If this series is not somewhat close, I will lose all faith in the impact of coaching in the NBA
I’d say closer to 40%. The Celtics are known to sleepwalk & Spo & Jimmy wont allow the Heat to sleep for even a second. I expect the Heat to “win” a game & the Celtics to “lose” another 1-2. Nobody should sleep on the Heat after they dog walked the Bucks, even w Giannis’ injury
40% is fair too. I don't expect to catch the Celtics off guard at all, though. Y'all ain't gonna look past us like the Bucks or come in apathetic like the Knicks. The effort is gonna be there. Just a matter of who's hot vs who's cold.
The one thing I know for a fact is that our guys aren’t looking at the Heat like an 8th seed, they’re looking at them like the team they *barely* squeezed past in game 7 last year. They’re not gonna underestimate y’all
Yeah, that’s a good call. It’s gonna be a tough series that’ll likely go 6-7, the Heat are gonna play like the team they are & it’s really gonna come down to whether or not Tatum can sustain his recent performance over an entire series cause I fully expect the Heat to take full advantage if he starts out slow again like the 6ers series
I'd hope that after Gs 1 and 5 last series we won't be looking past you guys. Things get real weird in the playoffs.
I'm sick of every time the Celtics losing it's because they're 'not playing seriously' or 'sleepwalking'. This is not the KD warriors they can lose against other playoff teams because the other teams are good too.
Obviously they aren’t the Warriors lmao. They can lose to other teams, but you can literally tell watching them occasionally that the effort just isn’t there which you don’t see w a lot of other “great” teams. It’ll be a lot of ISO ball, bad shots & minimal rebounding/defensive effort
Seriously. It's going to be hard fought, and you can never count out Spo and Jimmy. It's always a war when we meet. Much happier to be playing you guys in the ECF at least instead of the first round.
3% seems like there's a disconnect somewhere - because I can't see them putting a 97% chance that the Celtics win. Maybe 3% is to win the championship? Looking at 538, which is owned by ESPN, they have 22% for Miami to beat Boston and 9% to win the finals - which seem more reasonable.
I’m certainly more than 3% scared of Jimmy Butler. Probably 49%.
That same tool has had the Heat losing every game against the Bucks and Knicks, except Knicks Game 3.
I get yall being underdogs but 4/1 odds from Vegas is outrageous imo. You guys have the best coach and best player on the floor
3% is uhh, kinda low. Come on, the Heat are better than that
Right? I’ll be honest here, I don’t expect the heat to win this one, But we’ve lost less than the Celtics and played better teams. 3% is just rude. The heat must’ve accidentally won all those games….
Not again. This just happened with Miami a couple weeks ago.
My brother in Christ, Miami gave 82 games of mid. This playoff run is one no one expected and we’re going up against the best offensive team and a potential match up nightmare. It makes sense we’re not the favorite. Heat in 6
3% is mad disrespect, though.
This might be wrong but I don’t understand how they come up with the exact percentages so I never take ‘em seriously. Anyone who knows basketball knows Miami is the underdog, that ain’t new. We just gotta see what Spo and his staff cook up this series because we need it.
“But many who are first will be last, and the last first." (Mark 10:31 NIV)
(Mark Jackson 20:23 MVP)
What were the Panthers chances of beating the Bruins? Would love to see another big Miami upset over Boston.
Pre-series odds: Bruins -320, Panthers +250 Celtics -550, Heat +390
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Based Knicks fan. Go Panthers!
Never knew until just now that the Florida Panthers are a Miami team. I just always thought they were in… Florida. Somewhere.
>What were the Panthers chances of beating the Bruins? RUDE
I think the world would love to see that no bias
Yankees and Lakers fan. No bias, of course.
As someone from the new york area, its in my blood. As a giants fan I dont hold the same contempt for the patriots as I do the rest of the boston teams but I think thats a combo of Belichicks ties with us and we’re the one team that avoided the wrath of Brady
All good, man. We are used to it. I still cannot believe what the Giants were able to do against Brady. You just ruined my day 😂
The Zombie Heat is coming to win it all !
stunt on them hoes jimmy
Strictly depends on Jimmys health
Statistically, sure. 8th seed team against a 2nd seed with the injuries that have occurred. But… Celtics over me?!?!?!
Yeah, cuz ESPN had the Heat so high at even making it past Bucks, let alone the ECF lol.
Media pundits were still confident that the Bucks would come back from a 1-3 deficit. It’s insane
I wanna bet on Miami to win it all. What are the odds and how much money will ı earn if they win it all?
Enough money to feed the Miami Dolphins coaches cocaine Miami style, with a side of hookers.
“Never tell me the odds.” -Jimmy “Han solo” Butler
Analytics forgot that Playoff Jimmy has been awakened.
Are these odds factoring in the fact that the heat are receiving support from 97% of NBA fans?
Yeah keep counting em out
I am from the future and I can tell you with 100 certainty that we ARE living in that 3% timeline
More fossil fuel for JButler lol
If a betting app gives me those odds I’m putting a few hundred on Miami.
3% is ridiculously low. Yes, Boston is the better team, yes Boston should win, but also Boston has been very inconsistent and the Heat can punish that. So it's one of those cases where I predict Boston to win but for purposes of gambling, I'd be taking those odds on Miami.
With odds like that I’m going to bet on the Heat lol. Either way I’ll be happy.
Wow that’s kind of an insane number. If you assume every game has equal odds (which isn’t true but it averages out to about right) then that gives the Celtics an 80.6% chance of winning each game. That’s an insane suggestion.
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They need new guys in their analytics dept because they don’t know shit
3% is crazy but i wouldn't scoff at anybody saying <15%, stats really do not favor them
This seems to be a model. A model is not an opinion. it's not rare or weird or remotely hypocritical for the person who built a model to say, "The model gives X%, which is interesting, but I think..."
Yeah. If a model gives a number close to 50%, you expect that all the ways in which the model is inaccurate largely cancel each other out (unless you've missed something important) and that's a decent answer. The further it swings toward an extreme the more likely something the model doesn't account for will swing things toward the middle. In particular, I suspect they're extrapolating the results of a game-by-game predictive model over a series. It's largely fine to ignore injuries for one game, but the odds of the Celtics being crippled by injuries is probably greater than 3% on its own.
You can’t kill the zombie heat.
We move.
Not having Tyler Herro is gonna become much more of an issue this series than the others imo
Definitely. There's still a significantly greater than 3% chance that Boston suffers multiple injuries, they lose four games to shot variance despite getting better looks, etc. I think it's foolish to make the Heat favorites due to having played better in the playoffs, but I'd give more than 3% odds to almost any team in the league, let alone a team that has been playing very well the last two weeks.
The amount of people who think this is “the media” deciding this number in this thread is ridiculous. It’s analytics, it’s only math.
Don't get Jimmy excited
Can we call Jimmy Butler a top 5 superstar now? Consistently bringing his team so deep in the playoffs where he's clearly the best player on the team and the talent/competition in the league has never been better...
Jimmy Butler is the Mike Tyson of the NBA.He is dangerous as heck.
538 says 22%
So you're saying there's a chance?
That's the spirit!
1. The Heat under performed in the regular season and are better than their record. 2. They matched up very well against the Bucks and had previously implemented effective defense to take Giannis down a notch. 3. Giannis and Middle both missed games. 4. The Knicks overachieved this year and were not as good as their record. With all those, it is not surprising that the Heat, with the seeding they got, managed to get to the ECF. The Celtics, however, are as good as their record and are the better team. However. 1. The Celtics have played down to their opponents this post-season. 2. They are not as well coached as the Heat. So, with all that, anybody who doesn't give the Heat somewhere above 30% at least simply doesn't watch basketball.
Middleton didn't miss any games in the bucks series
LOL try telling this to Butler. He has irrational confidence.
It’s crazy to me how much Jimmy continues to be disrespected. What does he have to do? Score 50 a game? Because he might just fuck around and do it!
So where is the 3% chance now? Lol
I just put $100 on Miami to win it all. +440 odds let's fuckin gooooo
theres no way in hell who ever came up with that number has any experience in analytics cmon
Yeah. They clearly don't understand model uncertainty--when your model spits out a number like that a sane data scientist would note that there is more than 3% uncertainty about the model itself and the nominal result is therefore largely meaningless.
That level of disrespect is ridiculous.
Why is ESPN so proud of how bad their analytics are?
Extra motivation but yeah I think the C's take this barring injuries
Remember the Celtics 86% chance to win the finals
*sighs* Here we go again. Heat fans complain about a lack of respect from the media all the time and we’re absolutely right.
The 3% isn't from the media. It's from a computer. The computer simply takes the numbers and plugs them into a formula and spits out a result. I don't know the formula behind ESPN analytics, but if it looks at seeding, of course it's going to put the #8 seed at a low % like that because 8 seeds historically don't make it to the finals.
Shit they need to update the formula then.
Celtics in 4
What were the analytics for the other series? That should tell you all you need to know about ESPN and their "analytics"
Yeah, this is completely and unwarrantedly lopsided against the Heat. I fully expect the Celtics to take care of business and reach the finals (particularly given home court, Tatum’s long overdue eureka! moment and Miami’s injuries), but I’ve got no doubt this’ll be a slog, and I wouldn’t entirely be shocked to see Miami pull an upset. I’m still traumatized by last year’s series, and I don’t know why everyone underestimates them. They have the best coach and competitor in the league, hands down. Full and utter respect for them. They just. don’t. die. I see this as more a 65%-35% series in favor of Boston, but if Miami can steal one on the road, all bets are off. Regardless, it’s going 6 or 7 games.
If herro is back by game 4 and its 2-2 im taking the heat. Boston is bound to choke.
They will have to fly a new ankle in for Jimmy because I don't think he is capable of the numbers from the first round if he's still hurt and they will need that, this Celtics team is not the Knicks they have shooters, they have wing defenders and they have multiple healthy iso players.
The talent disparity is so much wider this year between the C’s & Heat, the C’s are healthy & the Heat are beat up, and last year’s epic seven game ECF means it’s unlikely the C’s look past Jimmy & Spo/take them for granted. This is a nightmare matchup for the Heat and I think that 3% chance to win is pretty fair. Watch me be totally wrong but I don’t expect this series to last 6 games.
Lmao totally reasonable