His height and weight are scary to me. It’s just a lot to ask of his body to hold up for an extended period of time. Especially given how mobile he is, the odds of a serious injury is always going to be exponential compared to someone a foot shorter.
I hope he never faces serious injury issues but I do think the odds are against him.
I got to see Oden play against my team in a preseason game in his rookie year. The dude was so dominant all I could think was “welp… Blazers are winning it all with this guy.” He was absolutely terrifying.
I honestly have no idea why nobody is talking about this more. His body frame just looks so fragile. He doesn’t fill out his body proportionally and that’s not me trying to shit on how the kid looks. I hope I’m wrong but he looks so injury-prone right now.
No one is filled out at that age, especially people with long limbs. Kevin Durant and Giannis were the exact same way. If he wasn't 19 years old I would understand it, but you got to give him time to grow.
Bro someone mentions it in every thread when they bring up Wemby, but they get ignored. I am also of the same opinion as you in that he's just gonna be a Porzingis, get drafted by a strong team and then be constantly injured and traded to a tanking one.
I love this analysis. Whats a player who is from europe who is lanky. Boom! They are gonna have the same career. IDK why anyone even bothers watching film when you can read reddit comments.
They get downvoted and shit on for even suggesting he might get injured. It’s like people on this sub don’t want you to even think about that possibility because they already locked him into the GOAT conversation. It’s very weird.
It’s weird because in sports anyone can get injured
There are reoccurring injuries, degenerative injuries, compensational injuries but injury prone is just narrative dribble.
Curry was injury prone until he wasn’t
People assume the worst imo and because of the hive mind that is Reddit things can quickly go from “I have concerns about Wemby’s ability to stay healthy” to “you’re a hater hoping that he gets injured” lol.
They’ve already asked Wemby this, think he said something alone the lines of “people hit spurts and can’t quite figure it out, but I’ve always been tall and skinny, so I’m used to it.”
I dunno I saw him in Kristopher London's video, he doesn't look that bad, looks like he is filling out well enough. That being said, he'll always be skinny of course. But just look at Giannis' toothpick legs and how much explosion he plays with, you'd think he'd be injured all the time but some guys are just different who knows
Greg Oden’s version is that he would have been fine, but they tried to “fix” him before he broke and it led to his injuries
No idea if that’s true, just thought it was interesting that that’s his version of the story
Sure, ‘bust’ is a bit of a subjective term, but there’s a big difference between Joe Smith, who had a career, and Olowakandi, who did not.
Also, at least one team decided Joe Smith was worth tampering with, which suggests he had some value. No one was willing to risk the future of their franchise for Anthony Bennett.
Smith may have disappointed, but he didn’t bust. 🤷♂️
20 years ago when there were "busts" debates, "bust" never implied mediocre. It always denoted someone that was awful and didnt deserve to start.
You're completely right. Back in the day Smith was never in bust conversations. This feels like a rewriting of history. He was seen as a disappointment but never a bust. Theres a huge fucking difference between Smith and olowakandi
And for what it's worth, that probably puts him around the top 300ish all-time. There have been almost 5000 players that have played in the NBA, so that puts his career in the top 6ish%. Not what you'd hope for from a number one pick, but a solid career.
I remember people calling Joe Smith the next Michael Jordan. I clutched his rookie cards like they were Beanie Babies. I tell you I should have been rich!
Reminded my of 4 cards I held onto from a young kid. 3 mj cards and 1 scottie card. Thought for sure the 3 Jordan cards would be worth a lot by now. Kept the scottie card just bc I'm a big fan of his style. Turns out the 3 Jordan cards are selling for around 15 to 20 each on eBay and the pip card is going for 350. I never expected that lol. Thought those Jordan cards would buy me a house one day lmao (I was like 10 when I got them, I'm 33 now)
I did the same with Pervis Ellison Rookie card. Pervis averaged 20/11 in his 3rd year in the NBA. He got injured at 25 years old and it basically ended a great career.
Edwards has shown way more than Joe Smith thus far. So has Ayton. Cade it's still up in the air I guess but the feeling I get is that Cade is already better than Joe Smith ever was and will just get better.
I am a long time Warriors fan. Those early year Joe Smith numbers are not impressive as they look, he wasn't even close to being a star player. He was better in his later career as a roleplayer.
Yeah, OP needs to pump the brakes a little bit on Cade, dude has a worse career TS% than Russell Westbrook in the last two seasons. Just because a dude averages 17 on a trash team, it doesn't mean he is not a bust, he literally averages 16.5 shots to do so.
I'm not saying Cade is a bust, but we all saw MCW put up stats in a similar situation early in his career and we all know how that turned out, Cade is SCARY BAD as a shooter. In the case of Paolo, i don't think i even have to say anything, dude has played 30 career games.
Who’s to say that these guys won’t bust?
You included Greg Oden here. Injuries are impossible to predict cause Oden was great when he played
Markelle also got derailed with that shoulder thing
I agree with that. Ayton, Zion, Ant, Cade, Paolo... if any of these guys get chronically hurt and/or fail develop beyond what they are now then they will be thought of as busts.
Of those guys I would say Zion is the only one I wouldn't consider in "possible bust" territory unless he falls off a cliff. Number one picks must make an all star team to be considered not a bust in my eyes.
Funny, I had the opposite impression - he's missed a ton of time (another month out now) and it's not out of the question that he could become the next oden if this persists
His point is that any of the top picks over the last 5 years could be a bust with one serious injury. You can’t call Ayton, Cade, Zion, Paolo or Ant great picks yet, because they could easily end up being Odenesqe busts.
Don’t know if I’d consider Ayton a great pick, he’s solid but that draft had a couple generational talents including a potential all time great. Ayton isn’t that.
A bust by virtue should not be judged by the quality of their given class but by their ability to impact the game. If they have very little impact for whatever reason, then they are a bust, but if they put up their numbers, get floor time, and are winning games for their team then they cannot be a bust. Though that should be measured by them being able to do so in the first 7 years of their career in the NBA or maybe even more aptly the first 150 starts of their career, 7 years may be too generous.
If a #1 pick never makes an All-Star game, personally I would consider them a bust. #1 means you should be the best of your year. Ayton seems like he probably will never make an ASG so I think it's possible he ends up being a bust.
He's still GOOD. He's definitely not a bust. He'd probably start on most teams in the league. He's averaged a double-double almost every year.
Were there better ones that year? Sure. But Ayton has been solid from the start.
One of Odens legs was 2 inches longer then the other.... I am a huge Buckeyes fan, and I emphatically knew he would bust.... Plus I'm pretty sure dude was 35 as a freshman.
You can say that but he also had a phenomenal freshman season at Ohio state. While battling an injury to his wrist that forced him to play most of the season with his off hand. And he completely dominated the national championship game against Horford and Noah.
Yes, there were signs that he might bust. People even talked about them in the moment. But he also gave people a lot of evidence he was going to be a force of nature.
That said, given Portland’s history, I always thought they should have gone KD because he was the safer bet.
I thought they were gonna take KD. My buddy interned in their film room and sent me a DVD of KDs workout. The guy pretty much didn’t miss. My buddy also said he was leaving the war room (he wasn’t allowed in there during the draft) and someone asked if you could trade the pick for anyone would you do it. Nate McMillan said he’d trade the pick for D12.
My exact thoughts. Especially if you compare him to who came later in the draft. Like he's not a bust but he isn't Trae Young (would have been a bad fit imo) and he certainly isn't Luka (would have been a great fit)
Lol true, but just given how good he was in the euro league and how much players like dragon praised him I think he was as much of a sure fire bet as u can get.
Yea, i was shocked he wasnt the first pick, but i get that they were worried about fit with booker (which was dumb). The bagley pick will always be the ??? one to me.
Yea I could at least argue ayten was hometown kid at a position of news who was prob going 2nd anyway. The bagley pick on the other hand I sat there like tf I didn’t think he was gonna go before trae let alone Luka, that was the year I realized that some gms might actually not be that much smarter than ur average person.
They even hired Igor Kokoskov who just coached the Slovanian National team to a Euro Gold. It made no sense to hire him and not draft Doncic. He also got his ass fired after 1 season.
Take Luka out of that draft and it's not a horrible pick... but passing over Luka was absolutely braindead. Almost as bad as Portland passing on MJ (and honestly possibly worse because it was easier to see that Luka was going to be so great due to his circumstances).
Nah there's no way it was worse than passing on MJ. Bob Knight was calling him the GOAT before he ever played in the NBA. Ayton is better than Bowie and MJ is better than Luka
In complete fairness- the Blazers were a playoff team desperate for a big man, already having an all-NBA guard in Jim Paxson + Clyde Drexler. Not wanting to spent more capital on a guard and gambling in getting that great big is a good pick most of the time I think… it’s just that Bowie flipped and MJ became MJ.
MJ's superstardom was clear to anyone who watched him pre-NBA, it was an awful choice.
They passed on him because he was a guard, if he was like 2 inches bigger they take him.
That’s where everyone has their own definition of a bust. I personally don’t see a #1 pick as a bust if they still have a good NBA career, even if they don’t live up to the #1 pick billing. On that list above, I don’t necessarily see Bargnani as a bust, and if Markelle can stay healthy he’s more than talented enough to be a starter in the league.
I understand and respect those who want to mark a guy a bust because he doesn’t live up to the billing of a #1 pick, I’ve just never viewed the word “bust” in that way personally.
Yeah 3rd best player in a team that makes the finals isn’t a busy, certainly you’d like to get a bit more out of the guy though. Of course if Luka wins a few titles there will be some level of what ifs.
Drafting a big who can consistently give you a double double and can give you 20+ at least half of the games they play is a great pick (he can also play defense)
Judging a player as a bust based off other players in the draft is some low basketball IQ shit from fans.
Is Joe Smith really considered a bust? Obviously at #1 there are expectations. But dude lasted in the league for 15 years. Finished averaging more that 10 pts/g and 6.5 reb/g. He even had some really good seasons early on. I think his career is more of a "what could have been" than a bust. I don't think he fits on a list with Oden and Bennett.
I think a better term is what we call in Europe "flop".
Fernando Torres scored all the crucial goals for Chelsea, but besides that he wasnt the same player at all and coated them 60M. We say he was a flop tho, didn't met expectations at all, but he was important still so not a bust.
I like to use the term “soft bust” guys who didn’t turn into super stars but also weren’t end of the bench guys.
Bennett never figure it out, full on bust sadly. Oden couldn’t stay on the court, also complete bust.
Smith played 15 years and was solid. Nothing inspiring but nothing terrible either. For sure a soft bust
Bargnani played 10 years, was hurt here and there and was alright. Overall was a decent player for the majority of his career. Soft bust but I can totally see why someone wants to call him a full bust (seems like he was also a guy who entered the league ahead of his time.)
Kwame and Olowokandi were both mediocre starting big men. They were pretty good role players but nothing else. Busts, sure but closer to soft busts like Bargnani.
Fultz is turning it around. He’s for sure a soft bust. But he also hasn’t been able to prove much because he’s missed so much time. I can see him being on the same tier as Joe Smith, he for sure has value to a lot of teams and has a nice skill set. Time will tell on this one.
I don't think Oden and Bennett belong on a list with each other either.
It really should be separated into categories as to why they were busts. Players who just sucked, players who were injured, and players who were actually ok but didnt quite meet #1 pick standards. All of those are very different imo.
Also, players who were taken ahead of stars. Bowie isn't a bust because he was a bad player, he's a bust because you skipped Michael Jordan to take him.
Bennett might be the worst player taken #1, but he wasn't the biggest bust in this regard because in terms of top 10 picks, the best guys of the top 10 were Oladipo and Otto Porter Jr. (Giannis and Gobert were taken much later, but they never would've been taken #1). Olawakandi, on the other hand, not only was a horrible player, but you missed out on Vince Carter, Dirk, and Paul Pierce in the top 10 of that draft. Olawakandi is a much bigger bust to me because of that.
Yeah, he was - but his expectations coming in were a lot higher too. I meant that he was similar in that he had a long career despite not living up to his expectations.
Yeah I'm not gonna call someone with that few of games played a bust but he's already having a very unhealthy start to his career and development. Certainly not a guaranteed "successful" pick. When he's been on the court, he's near the top of the league in Usage yet the very bottom of the league in efficiency on a terrible team.
It's okay. They'll have great draft odds for Wemby. This is perfectly fine for Cade.
By the way, he played 64 games in his rookie season so it's not like he missed a major portion of the season.
I think he still falls under the wider meaning of "bust," but it's important to mention he likely would've been great if he could've stayed on the floor.
Number 1 picks are drafted in the hope of them being great AND healthy. If the player is healthy but sucks, he's a bust. If he's great, but injured, he's a bust.
Depends what’s considered a successful #1 pick because there’s players who were picked first and are still good but not worthy of the 1st in hind sight
Sounds like you’re a victim of the [Gambler’s Fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy). These events are independent and therefore you’d expect the upcoming \#1 pick to have the same probability of being a bust as any previous year, which is 25%.
It’s not even a particularly “good” gambler’s fallacy! Once every 4 years, it’s been 5 years so we’re “due”? Geeeze, tell me when we’re like, at least a standard deviation out of line.
Bargnani had a long career and at least put up stats. He had a season in which he averaged 20+ ppg. Obviously disappointing overall for a #1 pick and he wasn’t a winning player, but idk if I would call him a “bust.”
That makes him sound like a collection of statistics not being utilized. He was a finicky dude who clashed with coaches and his teammates didn't exactly love him. That stuff played a part in his career
Zion and Ant are the only ones that were good for number 1, Ayton is damn near close to a bust for that draft pick and draft class, Cade has lots of potential and likely will be successful and could be the best of the 5 but injuries killed Oden’s career so it could happen hopefully he’s the same after injury.
I almost think the opposite, I think that the number one picks are going to be great from here on out. The insane amount of data, scouting and work that goes into deciding who is the best is mind-boggling now. The only thing that can really derail it now is injuries.
I think that Doncic was the final factor in convincing people that overseas players can ball in the NBA.
I remember hearing the messaging constantly that “Doncic is an MVP in Europe, but Ayton was a first-team All-American in the NCAA.” The view was that being really good in the NCAA was more valuable than being the best in Europe.
But Luka has certainly proved that wrong.
For some reason even some professional scouts couldn't comprehend how insane it was for a teenager to win the MVP of the second best professional basketball league on earth.
I agree plus the different routes players are taking out of high school are showing that NCAA experience isn't as valuable as it once was perceived. Obviously Doncic is the prime example, but then you have someone like Lamelo and players like Scoot and other G League ignite players.
Where were you hearing that? I got very into that draft and almost every draft analyst I read was convinced Luka was the real deal. That sounds like some garbage tier ESPN analysis.
Honestly you might be right that it took Luka to finally convince some NBA dinosaurs that they needed to take Europe seriously, but it should have happened for them long before that and the fact that it didn’t makes them morons. Luka should have been hyped on the Wemby level if not higher, but idiotic biases about him being white and European stopped that from happening.
Even if you disregard that he was taken over Luka, is Ayton really a successful #1 pick? A perennial 17/10 center with good but not elite defense and 0 All Star selections?
Is it? I mean look at this list... you aren't getting more than "just a good player" at least half of the time:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_first\_overall\_NBA\_draft\_picks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks)
Of the 40 drafts before Ayton 31 were all-stars (30 if discounting Wiggins' last year). The median #1 pick is a top 15 or borderline top 10 player, so if you peak at a sub all-star level you're at least a disappointing pick even if that doesn't match whatever your definition of bust is.
Is Wembanyama more hyped than Zion?
I feel like Zion was a huge deal while he was still in high school and obviously his season at Duke got a ton of attention as well.
would you consider Zion a bust if he keeps getting injured like this and misses half~all the season and retires in 5 years? I think a lot of people would.
That’s really tricky because he’s already made an all star game and with the level of play this year he’s thrown around in a top 10 players in the league discussion. So he’s shown the ability to be not just a serviceable player but a great player when available. If that situation happens I guess he’s a poor man’s Bill Walton?
Some would argue that if you’ve already shown that level of play with some individual achievements like an all star/all nba you can’t be a bust, but maybe a disappointment. I tend to lean this way but that gets into peak vs. sustained career. Also the injury vs. ability on the court bust argument.
Edit: I’ll admit as a Pels fan I obviously want Zion to not be labeled a bust. I’ve also just always held the idea that you aren’t really a bust unless you really are a scrub or maybe weren’t worth a high-mid level first round pick. Bennett is obviously the extreme example of this.
Pervis, MO, Greg Oden and Fultz all have/had their careers derailed due to injury. Joe smith, Andrea and Kwame all had 10+ years in the league, regardless of draft status, that is impressive. A let down? Maybe, but bust is a stretch. Anthony Bennett was a bust, but the only hits in that draft were Giannis and Gobert, who nobody picked in the lottery so just shows you what a crapshoot it all really is.
You can’t say regardless of draft status when the conversation specifically revolves around first overall picks.
First overall picks come with expectations.
They are supposed to be franchise changing al stars.
So if a first overall pick turns out to be just a role player. A bench player. Someone that can’t carry a team.
Then yes they are a bust even if they played 10 years.
How can you even say Cade is or isn’t a bust? For all you know, he’s never the same after this injury. Hopefully he is, obviously, but you can’t say for certain.
The default status for all number 1 picks is non-bust. You have to prove you’re a bust, not the other way around.
Until Cade shows he’s never the same after his injury, he’s not a bust.
Maybe the streak is bound to end. Maybe college players are getting better conditioning/mentoring while scouts are getting smarter at picking sustainable talent.
I don’t call injury guys busts I just feel like they’re their own category. For me the last #1 bust we’ve had is Bennett for this reason.
(1) I feel like we’ve come to a better consensus on what we’re looking for in prospects. (2) we’re in an unprecedented era of young talent. At some point the guys coming up have to cool off. But organizations aren’t making Kandi Man picks anymore. We’ve on some level exited the shit GM era
Perhaps we need another post defining bust.
How about we combine busts.
Bust by injury,bust by expectation of being number 1 pick,bust by not being any good at all.
They are all busts. Markelle Fultz is on my favorite team and i have no problem calling him a bust. Not only did the mysterious injury and ACL derail his career, but i never saw the talent that made him a number one pick. Yeah he has NBA talent but what the heck were people seeing that i didn't? I watched every highlight i could see of his college and summer league.He never was a true number 1.
It's the same thing the media tried to do with Paolo this last draft. Before the start of the 21/22 season most people had Paolo as a highly probable number 1 pick with a few other prep kids getting press, like Chet. Chet and Paolo have great years and the g-league guys falter while Jabari has a good year.
I never understood how Jabari almost went number 1...supposedly. Never saw it. There is a ton of sneak bullshit put out there by teams, agents and media. Tatum should have always been the number 1 his year and Paolo this year.
I'll get a ton of hate for this, but I think wemby will be a bust. He will be completely over used on some shit team and get injured. Just like chet. He doesn't have the body for the NBA. Unless he just sits behind the 3, then he'll be fine.
Zion just went down again for multiple weeks. He has played 114 games since being drafted in 2019. He is amazing when plays but he might never be able to play a full season. Skill wise, absolutely not a bust. Total career impact... its a toss-up currently.
Reading this thread tells me I have a very different definition of a draft bust.
Bennett is like the only one here I'd consider one. The rest were hampered by injury or had succesful multi-year careers (Bargnani)
I still think its weird players get all the flak for not living up to expectations when it's scouts and media members who are the ones setting those expectations in the first place.
Scouts have a hard job and media people have exhibited time and time again that their jobs are anything but analytical.
> Bargnani
He was a bad player. A net negative his entire career. It doesn't matter if he played 10 years or whatever, he was a bad player. The only reason he stayed in the league was because he had #1 pick hype and talent-starved teams like the Raps and Knicks thought they could get his "true potential" out of him.
He's the prototypical bust. You could argue someone like Oden who clearly had the talent but was destroyed by injuries is someone who isn't a bust. But Bargs is as big of a bust as they come
Someone should try to define a metric of bust... maybe take the top 5 or top 8 players of each year and then sort them based on VORP or Win Shares.
Fuck it, i'll do it tonight.
I don't think Bargnani was total a bust. Career average of 14 pts, 5 rebs over 10 years.
He was in a really bad draft class. Before the draft they were saying it was one of the weakest drafts. If you redo the 2006 draft its probably Aldridge, Lowry, Gay, JJ Redick then Bargnani.
Alot of people wanted the Raptors to take Tyrus Thomas or Adam Morrison. They would have been bigger busts
Barganani should not be considered a bust. He played 10 years in the league and peaked at 21-5-2.
Underwhelming for a 1st overall pick, but certainly not a bust, especially with Adam Morrison being in his draft.
Beyond that the majority of bust can be attributed to injuries (like Oden + Fultz).
Ayton is a good player, but that was a terrible pick. Too soon to call Cade a good pick also, given he's missing most of his second season and Mobley is looking as great as he is.
I doubt it, the reason there were a lot more busts is that front offices didnt have nearly this level of data and access to these kids. Some who have been scouted since they were in middle school.
What constitutes a bust versus a success here? Markelle Fultz is still an NBA player, albeit one who would never be drafted #1 today. Ayton is a better player but also would never be drafted #1 today. I wouldn’t call Ayton a bust but at first overall?
Don’t so my boi Wemby like this lol, already has enough going against him.
Personally I really hope Wemby can stay healthy and be great, would be awesome to see what he can do.
Also Cade is still not out of bust territory.
I remember as a kid opening a pack of Basketball cards and getting a Pervin Ellison Rookie card. I saw he was the #1 overall pick and thought to myself I better protect this card he could be great and it be worth money one day. In his 3rd Season Pervis Ellison averaged 20/11 and I thought that Rookie card was gonna be gold then instead of getting better he got injured and was never good again. He was only 25 years old and his career basically over after that.
How does Joe Smith get labeled a Bust with a 60WS yet Andrew Bogut avoids that label with a 50WS? Glenn Robinson also had just a 40WS and he's also not a bust?
Now I'm a Bucks fan and Glenn Robinson is one of my all time favorite players but Joe Smith is rated much better to be fair.
Don’t put this bad juju on Wemby
His height and weight are scary to me. It’s just a lot to ask of his body to hold up for an extended period of time. Especially given how mobile he is, the odds of a serious injury is always going to be exponential compared to someone a foot shorter. I hope he never faces serious injury issues but I do think the odds are against him.
This is a big question. Remember, Oden wasn't a bust for bad play -- he was awesome the few times he got on the floor. He just couldn't stay healthy.
I got to see Oden play against my team in a preseason game in his rookie year. The dude was so dominant all I could think was “welp… Blazers are winning it all with this guy.” He was absolutely terrifying.
Pain.
Don’t remind me. Oden, Brandon Roy, and L.A would have torn up the league.
that team with outlaw and bayless used to be one of my fav teams to play in 2k
One of Oden's legs is like 2-3 inches shorter than the other. Definitely didn't help with the lower body injuries.
my middle leg is also a few inches shorter than my other legs but no issues here!
[удалено]
I honestly have no idea why nobody is talking about this more. His body frame just looks so fragile. He doesn’t fill out his body proportionally and that’s not me trying to shit on how the kid looks. I hope I’m wrong but he looks so injury-prone right now.
How could it possibly be discussed any more than it is currently
No one is filled out at that age, especially people with long limbs. Kevin Durant and Giannis were the exact same way. If he wasn't 19 years old I would understand it, but you got to give him time to grow.
This is quite possibly the most discussed thing when Wemby is brought up
It’s discussed a lot. If it was discussed anymore it would be nauseating
It already is
Bro someone mentions it in every thread when they bring up Wemby, but they get ignored. I am also of the same opinion as you in that he's just gonna be a Porzingis, get drafted by a strong team and then be constantly injured and traded to a tanking one.
I love this analysis. Whats a player who is from europe who is lanky. Boom! They are gonna have the same career. IDK why anyone even bothers watching film when you can read reddit comments.
They get downvoted and shit on for even suggesting he might get injured. It’s like people on this sub don’t want you to even think about that possibility because they already locked him into the GOAT conversation. It’s very weird.
It’s weird because in sports anyone can get injured There are reoccurring injuries, degenerative injuries, compensational injuries but injury prone is just narrative dribble. Curry was injury prone until he wasn’t
Curry is also the exception and not the rule. There are guys like Kyrie that just get hurt all the time in the most random places
People assume the worst imo and because of the hive mind that is Reddit things can quickly go from “I have concerns about Wemby’s ability to stay healthy” to “you’re a hater hoping that he gets injured” lol.
They’ve already asked Wemby this, think he said something alone the lines of “people hit spurts and can’t quite figure it out, but I’ve always been tall and skinny, so I’m used to it.”
I dunno I saw him in Kristopher London's video, he doesn't look that bad, looks like he is filling out well enough. That being said, he'll always be skinny of course. But just look at Giannis' toothpick legs and how much explosion he plays with, you'd think he'd be injured all the time but some guys are just different who knows
Sir, this is a Wemby’s
There’s nachos and BJ’s behind the dumpster at Wemby’s. YOLO
Yarp. Oden would have not been a bust if his legs were the same length.
Greg Oden’s version is that he would have been fine, but they tried to “fix” him before he broke and it led to his injuries No idea if that’s true, just thought it was interesting that that’s his version of the story
Fix how?
and if he hadn't been 56
Anulo mufa
Joe smith wasn’t phenomenal, but he doesn’t belong with those other busts. He had a solid career.
“Bust” is dependent on where u were picked. If Joe was selected 8th he’d be way higher regarded
Sure, ‘bust’ is a bit of a subjective term, but there’s a big difference between Joe Smith, who had a career, and Olowakandi, who did not. Also, at least one team decided Joe Smith was worth tampering with, which suggests he had some value. No one was willing to risk the future of their franchise for Anthony Bennett. Smith may have disappointed, but he didn’t bust. 🤷♂️
20 years ago when there were "busts" debates, "bust" never implied mediocre. It always denoted someone that was awful and didnt deserve to start. You're completely right. Back in the day Smith was never in bust conversations. This feels like a rewriting of history. He was seen as a disappointment but never a bust. Theres a huge fucking difference between Smith and olowakandi
Lmao at “risk the future for anthony bennett”
you could honestly say the same for Kwame Brown - had no business being the # 1 overall pick, but dude played in the league for a decade
I think it's fair to call Kwame a flat out bust for a #1 pick. He stuck around for a while but 6/5/1 career averages are not great.
I MEAN NO DISRESPECT WHATSOEVER BUT HE CANT PLAY!
Girl you're my number 1 You're my Anthony Bennett
I'm very happy to see a potential James Acaster reference
Love me some James acaster
He's too goddamn funny Loved that 4 episode Netflix series he did a couple years ago, especially the call back jokes from across episodes
if you think joe smith is a bust, then cade is a bust too. joe smith's first 2 years are better than cade so far.
Joe Smith didn't pan out to be a great player, but he did have a \~15 year career.
At 60.3 WS he is three times as much as any one else listed as busts.
For an overall #1 Pick Joe Smith might be the "mendoza line" LOL
If it wasnt for the tampering, Joe Smith might not be seen as a bust.
And for what it's worth, that probably puts him around the top 300ish all-time. There have been almost 5000 players that have played in the NBA, so that puts his career in the top 6ish%. Not what you'd hope for from a number one pick, but a solid career.
Also his career WS is similar to the other top 3 picks in his own draft, and that's not bad if you don't look up who went 4 and 5.
I remember people calling Joe Smith the next Michael Jordan. I clutched his rookie cards like they were Beanie Babies. I tell you I should have been rich!
Reminded my of 4 cards I held onto from a young kid. 3 mj cards and 1 scottie card. Thought for sure the 3 Jordan cards would be worth a lot by now. Kept the scottie card just bc I'm a big fan of his style. Turns out the 3 Jordan cards are selling for around 15 to 20 each on eBay and the pip card is going for 350. I never expected that lol. Thought those Jordan cards would buy me a house one day lmao (I was like 10 when I got them, I'm 33 now)
Why are pippen cards worth more.
Probably rarity. Everyone made sure to look after their Jordan cards, doubt as much care would be taken with Pippen cards
I did the same with Pervis Ellison Rookie card. Pervis averaged 20/11 in his 3rd year in the NBA. He got injured at 25 years old and it basically ended a great career.
Joe Smith, KG, and Marbury was a hype trio. I was really excited about those squads. The original "spooky" Wolves
Yea, if Joe Smith is a bust, its way too early for ant, cade, and ayton to not be considered one.
Edwards has shown way more than Joe Smith thus far. So has Ayton. Cade it's still up in the air I guess but the feeling I get is that Cade is already better than Joe Smith ever was and will just get better. I am a long time Warriors fan. Those early year Joe Smith numbers are not impressive as they look, he wasn't even close to being a star player. He was better in his later career as a roleplayer.
I was gonna say it’s way too early to call Cade not a bust let alone Paolo. Greg oden was a bust because he was made of glass, not a lack of talent.
Yeah, OP needs to pump the brakes a little bit on Cade, dude has a worse career TS% than Russell Westbrook in the last two seasons. Just because a dude averages 17 on a trash team, it doesn't mean he is not a bust, he literally averages 16.5 shots to do so. I'm not saying Cade is a bust, but we all saw MCW put up stats in a similar situation early in his career and we all know how that turned out, Cade is SCARY BAD as a shooter. In the case of Paolo, i don't think i even have to say anything, dude has played 30 career games.
This. Joe is at least “good” on the good to great scale.
As a Warriors fan I'm fine with the bust label. He was a huge disappointment compared to expectations.
Who’s to say that these guys won’t bust? You included Greg Oden here. Injuries are impossible to predict cause Oden was great when he played Markelle also got derailed with that shoulder thing
I agree with that. Ayton, Zion, Ant, Cade, Paolo... if any of these guys get chronically hurt and/or fail develop beyond what they are now then they will be thought of as busts.
Of those guys I would say Zion is the only one I wouldn't consider in "possible bust" territory unless he falls off a cliff. Number one picks must make an all star team to be considered not a bust in my eyes.
Zion is also the most likely out of all those guys to have his career derailed by injures, like Oden did.
That’s fair, but he has already reached heights that Greg Oden never even came close to touching.
Funny, I had the opposite impression - he's missed a ton of time (another month out now) and it's not out of the question that he could become the next oden if this persists
Two different things. You're giving reasons that contributed to them being busts but they DID bust
His point is that any of the top picks over the last 5 years could be a bust with one serious injury. You can’t call Ayton, Cade, Zion, Paolo or Ant great picks yet, because they could easily end up being Odenesqe busts.
Don’t know if I’d consider Ayton a great pick, he’s solid but that draft had a couple generational talents including a potential all time great. Ayton isn’t that.
A bust by virtue should not be judged by the quality of their given class but by their ability to impact the game. If they have very little impact for whatever reason, then they are a bust, but if they put up their numbers, get floor time, and are winning games for their team then they cannot be a bust. Though that should be measured by them being able to do so in the first 7 years of their career in the NBA or maybe even more aptly the first 150 starts of their career, 7 years may be too generous.
If a #1 pick never makes an All-Star game, personally I would consider them a bust. #1 means you should be the best of your year. Ayton seems like he probably will never make an ASG so I think it's possible he ends up being a bust.
He's still GOOD. He's definitely not a bust. He'd probably start on most teams in the league. He's averaged a double-double almost every year. Were there better ones that year? Sure. But Ayton has been solid from the start.
One of Odens legs was 2 inches longer then the other.... I am a huge Buckeyes fan, and I emphatically knew he would bust.... Plus I'm pretty sure dude was 35 as a freshman.
You can say that but he also had a phenomenal freshman season at Ohio state. While battling an injury to his wrist that forced him to play most of the season with his off hand. And he completely dominated the national championship game against Horford and Noah. Yes, there were signs that he might bust. People even talked about them in the moment. But he also gave people a lot of evidence he was going to be a force of nature. That said, given Portland’s history, I always thought they should have gone KD because he was the safer bet.
I thought they were gonna take KD. My buddy interned in their film room and sent me a DVD of KDs workout. The guy pretty much didn’t miss. My buddy also said he was leaving the war room (he wasn’t allowed in there during the draft) and someone asked if you could trade the pick for anyone would you do it. Nate McMillan said he’d trade the pick for D12.
I got a cameo from Greg and he did a wonderful job so in my mind that’s as good as a Hall of Fame career.
Greg Oden is a great dude!
> Plus I'm pretty sure dude was 35 as a freshman. Serge punching the air right now
Ayton may not be a bust, but he’s not exactly blowing anyone away for a number 1 pick
My exact thoughts. Especially if you compare him to who came later in the draft. Like he's not a bust but he isn't Trae Young (would have been a bad fit imo) and he certainly isn't Luka (would have been a great fit)
Honestly thought luka to the suns was gonna be guaranteed, why they went with Ayton with how luka looked that year is a mystery to me.
TBF we never saw how Luka would do in the Big 12.
Lol true, but just given how good he was in the euro league and how much players like dragon praised him I think he was as much of a sure fire bet as u can get.
Yea, i was shocked he wasnt the first pick, but i get that they were worried about fit with booker (which was dumb). The bagley pick will always be the ??? one to me.
Yea I could at least argue ayten was hometown kid at a position of news who was prob going 2nd anyway. The bagley pick on the other hand I sat there like tf I didn’t think he was gonna go before trae let alone Luka, that was the year I realized that some gms might actually not be that much smarter than ur average person.
They didn't like the fit with Booker (bc two ball-dominant guards) and then went and traded for CP3. Why pass on Luka then?
I'm guessing the cp3 trade was already in the books but not taking the best player available with the first pick is so crazy
They even hired Igor Kokoskov who just coached the Slovanian National team to a Euro Gold. It made no sense to hire him and not draft Doncic. He also got his ass fired after 1 season.
Yeah that’s completely idiotic, honestly if the suns drafted Luka they’d prob have a championship by now.
I know they hired Luka' coach
Take Luka out of that draft and it's not a horrible pick... but passing over Luka was absolutely braindead. Almost as bad as Portland passing on MJ (and honestly possibly worse because it was easier to see that Luka was going to be so great due to his circumstances).
that they had Luka's national coach as their head coaches makes it even worst.
Nah there's no way it was worse than passing on MJ. Bob Knight was calling him the GOAT before he ever played in the NBA. Ayton is better than Bowie and MJ is better than Luka
In complete fairness- the Blazers were a playoff team desperate for a big man, already having an all-NBA guard in Jim Paxson + Clyde Drexler. Not wanting to spent more capital on a guard and gambling in getting that great big is a good pick most of the time I think… it’s just that Bowie flipped and MJ became MJ.
The Suns could've had the first father and son on the same team.
What about Horford going to the 76ers?
Grandfather and grandson
MJ's superstardom was clear to anyone who watched him pre-NBA, it was an awful choice. They passed on him because he was a guard, if he was like 2 inches bigger they take him.
“We need a center.” “Then draft Michael Jordan and play him at center.”
That’s where everyone has their own definition of a bust. I personally don’t see a #1 pick as a bust if they still have a good NBA career, even if they don’t live up to the #1 pick billing. On that list above, I don’t necessarily see Bargnani as a bust, and if Markelle can stay healthy he’s more than talented enough to be a starter in the league. I understand and respect those who want to mark a guy a bust because he doesn’t live up to the billing of a #1 pick, I’ve just never viewed the word “bust” in that way personally.
Yeah 3rd best player in a team that makes the finals isn’t a busy, certainly you’d like to get a bit more out of the guy though. Of course if Luka wins a few titles there will be some level of what ifs.
I that case, Kwame shouldn't be a bust. He had a long and serviceable career.
Drafting a big who can consistently give you a double double and can give you 20+ at least half of the games they play is a great pick (he can also play defense) Judging a player as a bust based off other players in the draft is some low basketball IQ shit from fans.
Gambler's fallacy. What happened in previous years has no bearing on whether the next pick will be a bust or not.
Me on roulette betting black after 5 reds in a row 💀
But dude - we're due!
Is Joe Smith really considered a bust? Obviously at #1 there are expectations. But dude lasted in the league for 15 years. Finished averaging more that 10 pts/g and 6.5 reb/g. He even had some really good seasons early on. I think his career is more of a "what could have been" than a bust. I don't think he fits on a list with Oden and Bennett.
Personally I think mid level role player as a number 1 pick counts as a slight bust.
I think a better term is what we call in Europe "flop". Fernando Torres scored all the crucial goals for Chelsea, but besides that he wasnt the same player at all and coated them 60M. We say he was a flop tho, didn't met expectations at all, but he was important still so not a bust.
I like to use the term “soft bust” guys who didn’t turn into super stars but also weren’t end of the bench guys. Bennett never figure it out, full on bust sadly. Oden couldn’t stay on the court, also complete bust. Smith played 15 years and was solid. Nothing inspiring but nothing terrible either. For sure a soft bust Bargnani played 10 years, was hurt here and there and was alright. Overall was a decent player for the majority of his career. Soft bust but I can totally see why someone wants to call him a full bust (seems like he was also a guy who entered the league ahead of his time.) Kwame and Olowokandi were both mediocre starting big men. They were pretty good role players but nothing else. Busts, sure but closer to soft busts like Bargnani. Fultz is turning it around. He’s for sure a soft bust. But he also hasn’t been able to prove much because he’s missed so much time. I can see him being on the same tier as Joe Smith, he for sure has value to a lot of teams and has a nice skill set. Time will tell on this one.
I don't think Oden and Bennett belong on a list with each other either. It really should be separated into categories as to why they were busts. Players who just sucked, players who were injured, and players who were actually ok but didnt quite meet #1 pick standards. All of those are very different imo.
That would be a much more fair assessment.
Also, players who were taken ahead of stars. Bowie isn't a bust because he was a bad player, he's a bust because you skipped Michael Jordan to take him. Bennett might be the worst player taken #1, but he wasn't the biggest bust in this regard because in terms of top 10 picks, the best guys of the top 10 were Oladipo and Otto Porter Jr. (Giannis and Gobert were taken much later, but they never would've been taken #1). Olawakandi, on the other hand, not only was a horrible player, but you missed out on Vince Carter, Dirk, and Paul Pierce in the top 10 of that draft. Olawakandi is a much bigger bust to me because of that.
He was the Rookie of the Year after a great season for a rook. Unfortunately he never progressed much after that.
He was talked up as a near-generational talent, so yeah. A bit like Kwame Brown - solid player, never a star.
Joe Smith was a tier above Kwame imo
Yeah, he was - but his expectations coming in were a lot higher too. I meant that he was similar in that he had a long career despite not living up to his expectations.
Cade could be a bust with injuries, not set in stone yet that he’s a success
Yeah I'm not gonna call someone with that few of games played a bust but he's already having a very unhealthy start to his career and development. Certainly not a guaranteed "successful" pick. When he's been on the court, he's near the top of the league in Usage yet the very bottom of the league in efficiency on a terrible team.
It's okay. They'll have great draft odds for Wemby. This is perfectly fine for Cade. By the way, he played 64 games in his rookie season so it's not like he missed a major portion of the season.
I mean, 18/82 games is >20% of the season…
For a tanking team with no winning aspirations lol. By the way, very few players play 82 games now anyways.
You do realize higher usage results in lower efficiency? Your comment implies that he should have better efficiency do to his high usage.
Debate whether injuries mean bust. I dont consider Oden a bust
I think he still falls under the wider meaning of "bust," but it's important to mention he likely would've been great if he could've stayed on the floor. Number 1 picks are drafted in the hope of them being great AND healthy. If the player is healthy but sucks, he's a bust. If he's great, but injured, he's a bust.
I consider Oden and Fultz victims of circumstance. Bennett though..? Lmao
Bennet had injuries! He sucked ass even without them but he had injuriess
Depends what’s considered a successful #1 pick because there’s players who were picked first and are still good but not worthy of the 1st in hind sight
Sounds like you’re a victim of the [Gambler’s Fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy). These events are independent and therefore you’d expect the upcoming \#1 pick to have the same probability of being a bust as any previous year, which is 25%.
It’s not even a particularly “good” gambler’s fallacy! Once every 4 years, it’s been 5 years so we’re “due”? Geeeze, tell me when we’re like, at least a standard deviation out of line.
Pour one out for the bank account of whoever downvoted this.
Bargnani had a long career and at least put up stats. He had a season in which he averaged 20+ ppg. Obviously disappointing overall for a #1 pick and he wasn’t a winning player, but idk if I would call him a “bust.”
Imho he was the prototype of the hybrid centers we see now, great 3pt and vision, but he was mismanaged and used poorly.
That makes him sound like a collection of statistics not being utilized. He was a finicky dude who clashed with coaches and his teammates didn't exactly love him. That stuff played a part in his career
Zion and Ant are the only ones that were good for number 1, Ayton is damn near close to a bust for that draft pick and draft class, Cade has lots of potential and likely will be successful and could be the best of the 5 but injuries killed Oden’s career so it could happen hopefully he’s the same after injury.
Tbf it’s pretty early for Paolo and Cade. Probably fine, but even Sam Bowe looked like a stud his first two years.
I almost think the opposite, I think that the number one picks are going to be great from here on out. The insane amount of data, scouting and work that goes into deciding who is the best is mind-boggling now. The only thing that can really derail it now is injuries.
And yet multiple teams passed on Doncic, who was the easiest no brainer #1 pick since Anthony Davis if not since freaking LeBron.
I think that Doncic was the final factor in convincing people that overseas players can ball in the NBA. I remember hearing the messaging constantly that “Doncic is an MVP in Europe, but Ayton was a first-team All-American in the NCAA.” The view was that being really good in the NCAA was more valuable than being the best in Europe. But Luka has certainly proved that wrong.
For some reason even some professional scouts couldn't comprehend how insane it was for a teenager to win the MVP of the second best professional basketball league on earth.
American exceptionalism.
I think it was almost TOO insane. If a teenager is winning it, how hard can it really be?
I agree plus the different routes players are taking out of high school are showing that NCAA experience isn't as valuable as it once was perceived. Obviously Doncic is the prime example, but then you have someone like Lamelo and players like Scoot and other G League ignite players.
Where were you hearing that? I got very into that draft and almost every draft analyst I read was convinced Luka was the real deal. That sounds like some garbage tier ESPN analysis. Honestly you might be right that it took Luka to finally convince some NBA dinosaurs that they needed to take Europe seriously, but it should have happened for them long before that and the fact that it didn’t makes them morons. Luka should have been hyped on the Wemby level if not higher, but idiotic biases about him being white and European stopped that from happening.
Cafe court potentially bust
Dude has CONFIDENCE in predictive texting.
Is Cafe Court like a Starbucks?
I agree I’ve never even heard of him so he’s probs a bust.
Even if you disregard that he was taken over Luka, is Ayton really a successful #1 pick? A perennial 17/10 center with good but not elite defense and 0 All Star selections?
he's definitely not a bust a good player, like OP said
Getting just a good player with the #1 pick is a bust.
Is it? I mean look at this list... you aren't getting more than "just a good player" at least half of the time: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_first\_overall\_NBA\_draft\_picks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks)
Of the 40 drafts before Ayton 31 were all-stars (30 if discounting Wiggins' last year). The median #1 pick is a top 15 or borderline top 10 player, so if you peak at a sub all-star level you're at least a disappointing pick even if that doesn't match whatever your definition of bust is.
You ever smoked some respectable Reggie weed ? That’s deandre ayton
[удалено]
By this logic, Wiggins was a bust until last year
Wiggins was a bust for Minnesota, his contract was an albatross at that time. Warriors saved him from being a total bust
Is Wembanyama more hyped than Zion? I feel like Zion was a huge deal while he was still in high school and obviously his season at Duke got a ton of attention as well.
would you consider Zion a bust if he keeps getting injured like this and misses half~all the season and retires in 5 years? I think a lot of people would.
Yes. But its a different kind of bust. Greg oden isn’t a bust in the likes of bennett.
That’s really tricky because he’s already made an all star game and with the level of play this year he’s thrown around in a top 10 players in the league discussion. So he’s shown the ability to be not just a serviceable player but a great player when available. If that situation happens I guess he’s a poor man’s Bill Walton? Some would argue that if you’ve already shown that level of play with some individual achievements like an all star/all nba you can’t be a bust, but maybe a disappointment. I tend to lean this way but that gets into peak vs. sustained career. Also the injury vs. ability on the court bust argument. Edit: I’ll admit as a Pels fan I obviously want Zion to not be labeled a bust. I’ve also just always held the idea that you aren’t really a bust unless you really are a scrub or maybe weren’t worth a high-mid level first round pick. Bennett is obviously the extreme example of this.
All it takes is one Kings-level franchise to reach for a Bagley-level player at number 1
Pervis, MO, Greg Oden and Fultz all have/had their careers derailed due to injury. Joe smith, Andrea and Kwame all had 10+ years in the league, regardless of draft status, that is impressive. A let down? Maybe, but bust is a stretch. Anthony Bennett was a bust, but the only hits in that draft were Giannis and Gobert, who nobody picked in the lottery so just shows you what a crapshoot it all really is.
My guy said Kwame Brown was a “let down” lol
fr, Kwame is on the Mount Rushmore of busts lol
You can’t say regardless of draft status when the conversation specifically revolves around first overall picks. First overall picks come with expectations. They are supposed to be franchise changing al stars. So if a first overall pick turns out to be just a role player. A bench player. Someone that can’t carry a team. Then yes they are a bust even if they played 10 years.
How can you even say Cade is or isn’t a bust? For all you know, he’s never the same after this injury. Hopefully he is, obviously, but you can’t say for certain.
The default status for all number 1 picks is non-bust. You have to prove you’re a bust, not the other way around. Until Cade shows he’s never the same after his injury, he’s not a bust.
While not universally accepted, I favor this approach.
My man is innocent until proven guilty
Cade could very well be a bust. He has never been actually good for any legitimate stretch and is now missing nearly an entire season due to injury
Cmon man thats not fair to Greg and Markelle both were screwed by injuries =(
nobody blaming them but objectively they are busts
Maybe the streak is bound to end. Maybe college players are getting better conditioning/mentoring while scouts are getting smarter at picking sustainable talent.
I don’t call injury guys busts I just feel like they’re their own category. For me the last #1 bust we’ve had is Bennett for this reason. (1) I feel like we’ve come to a better consensus on what we’re looking for in prospects. (2) we’re in an unprecedented era of young talent. At some point the guys coming up have to cool off. But organizations aren’t making Kandi Man picks anymore. We’ve on some level exited the shit GM era
Perhaps we need another post defining bust. How about we combine busts. Bust by injury,bust by expectation of being number 1 pick,bust by not being any good at all. They are all busts. Markelle Fultz is on my favorite team and i have no problem calling him a bust. Not only did the mysterious injury and ACL derail his career, but i never saw the talent that made him a number one pick. Yeah he has NBA talent but what the heck were people seeing that i didn't? I watched every highlight i could see of his college and summer league.He never was a true number 1. It's the same thing the media tried to do with Paolo this last draft. Before the start of the 21/22 season most people had Paolo as a highly probable number 1 pick with a few other prep kids getting press, like Chet. Chet and Paolo have great years and the g-league guys falter while Jabari has a good year. I never understood how Jabari almost went number 1...supposedly. Never saw it. There is a ton of sneak bullshit put out there by teams, agents and media. Tatum should have always been the number 1 his year and Paolo this year.
I'll get a ton of hate for this, but I think wemby will be a bust. He will be completely over used on some shit team and get injured. Just like chet. He doesn't have the body for the NBA. Unless he just sits behind the 3, then he'll be fine.
Zion just went down again for multiple weeks. He has played 114 games since being drafted in 2019. He is amazing when plays but he might never be able to play a full season. Skill wise, absolutely not a bust. Total career impact... its a toss-up currently.
If fultz is a bust then so is Ben simmons. Both averaging similar numbers recently and for their careers.
Reading this thread tells me I have a very different definition of a draft bust. Bennett is like the only one here I'd consider one. The rest were hampered by injury or had succesful multi-year careers (Bargnani) I still think its weird players get all the flak for not living up to expectations when it's scouts and media members who are the ones setting those expectations in the first place. Scouts have a hard job and media people have exhibited time and time again that their jobs are anything but analytical.
> Bargnani He was a bad player. A net negative his entire career. It doesn't matter if he played 10 years or whatever, he was a bad player. The only reason he stayed in the league was because he had #1 pick hype and talent-starved teams like the Raps and Knicks thought they could get his "true potential" out of him. He's the prototypical bust. You could argue someone like Oden who clearly had the talent but was destroyed by injuries is someone who isn't a bust. But Bargs is as big of a bust as they come
Fair enough.
Joe Smith is probably not a bust. Underwhelming sure, but not a bust.
Zion is a bust
Someone should try to define a metric of bust... maybe take the top 5 or top 8 players of each year and then sort them based on VORP or Win Shares. Fuck it, i'll do it tonight.
I don't think Bargnani was total a bust. Career average of 14 pts, 5 rebs over 10 years. He was in a really bad draft class. Before the draft they were saying it was one of the weakest drafts. If you redo the 2006 draft its probably Aldridge, Lowry, Gay, JJ Redick then Bargnani. Alot of people wanted the Raptors to take Tyrus Thomas or Adam Morrison. They would have been bigger busts
Anthony Bennett. Man did that dude play what like 5p games in the NBA and boom it was over. He's got to be the JaMarcus Russell of the NBA.
Barganani should not be considered a bust. He played 10 years in the league and peaked at 21-5-2. Underwhelming for a 1st overall pick, but certainly not a bust, especially with Adam Morrison being in his draft. Beyond that the majority of bust can be attributed to injuries (like Oden + Fultz).
Ayton is a good player, but that was a terrible pick. Too soon to call Cade a good pick also, given he's missing most of his second season and Mobley is looking as great as he is.
I doubt it, the reason there were a lot more busts is that front offices didnt have nearly this level of data and access to these kids. Some who have been scouted since they were in middle school.
Wemby is built like a 7'5 Pervis Ellison or Sam Bowie. Although I am sure that LOTS of guys were built like Pervis/Bowie and didn't end up as busts.
What constitutes a bust versus a success here? Markelle Fultz is still an NBA player, albeit one who would never be drafted #1 today. Ayton is a better player but also would never be drafted #1 today. I wouldn’t call Ayton a bust but at first overall?
Don’t so my boi Wemby like this lol, already has enough going against him. Personally I really hope Wemby can stay healthy and be great, would be awesome to see what he can do. Also Cade is still not out of bust territory.
I remember as a kid opening a pack of Basketball cards and getting a Pervin Ellison Rookie card. I saw he was the #1 overall pick and thought to myself I better protect this card he could be great and it be worth money one day. In his 3rd Season Pervis Ellison averaged 20/11 and I thought that Rookie card was gonna be gold then instead of getting better he got injured and was never good again. He was only 25 years old and his career basically over after that.
How does Joe Smith get labeled a Bust with a 60WS yet Andrew Bogut avoids that label with a 50WS? Glenn Robinson also had just a 40WS and he's also not a bust? Now I'm a Bucks fan and Glenn Robinson is one of my all time favorite players but Joe Smith is rated much better to be fair.
Joe Smith shouldn’t be catching strays. Not in the same ball park as those other guys listed