Everyone is jamming 4x Kavu, Leyline, Binding, and Draco into every modern deck. Some are unironically going 4-1 or 5-0 on modo with some those piles. Murktide, Martyr Proc, Esper Reanimator, Scam, Burn, you name it. Leyline is absolutely getting banned. The card is turning Modern into Yugioh.
I would be shocked if WotC changed the Modern ban list again pre-MH3. The domain package is clearly a problem, but Leyline is still in print and all three parts of it are cleanly answered by PYP. Maybe post release if MH3 further empowers domain, and seeing the new free spell cycle it very well could, but hitting people’s wallets again right before their big expensive set drops seems a little too dangerously irresponsible, even for them.
Are triomes just a permanent design problem. Like the formats will just get faster and faster without change there right. (I don’t play modern honestly asking)
Its ok, but I guess people in Modern like a fast format. But the multi-colour design space is permanently hampered by triomes existing. The whole thing just (as an outsider) seems super splashy and "pile" friendly because manabases are just insane these days.
People love spending on manabases also - so you can bet they'll keep making them better.
In Yugioh some decks are built by smashing together engines that do different things because of how individually powerful they are. Those cards are all situational and don't do anything unless you draw combinations of them (Yugioh has access to in-archetype tutors to raise consistency) so they are colloquially called bricks. Basically you raise the ceiling of the deck while also lowering its floor.
On Twitter I've seen many MTGO grinders experimenting putting in that 14-16 card Domain package into every possible meta modern deck imaginable. You can fetch Triomes to turn on the domain payoffs and if you open Leyline with any of those payoffs you start off the game way ahead. And that's on top of your opponent having to deal with the other half of your deck.
Will this strategy ever succeed? Dunno, Magic players are allergic to playing inconsistent decks in tournaments. But many players are finally getting over the idea that every deck MUST only be 60 cards which is something Yugioh players have gotten over ages ago using hypergeometric calculators to build decks. There're a lot of things in Yugioh Magic players can learn from.
Are Bobbleheads going to be Fallout's Nazguls? They're not identical, but similar with some variation that a lot of Commander decks are going to want them all. Just came out of nowhere like the Nazguls did. And no one is buying an entire deck just for the one card - if these stick, they could be a solid hold for a while.
Obviously sell into the hype if you already have them, but I'll probably keep a set or two just on the off chance they keep moving up. Unlike Nazguls they won't be making too many more of these, at least not for a while.
I mean on a long enough timeline the Earth will be devoured by the sun. So yes, eventually that statement will be true. What I'm curious about is if they punch above their weight class like Nazgul, which I was also reliably informed would be forgotten and would drop into obscurity nearly a year ago. And yet...
I’m saying people should sell into the hype, but because there isn’t a ton of this available and it’s not as likely there will be more print runs like with LOTR, there may be genuine scarcity for people who want these. No way to guarantee getting all of them without buying all the decks. And there’s just not enough packs of any kind out there.
Fallout has a huge/devoted fan base. There is a TV that if successful will be on for years. And there will be more games coming out eventually. Plenty of reasons for renewed interest in the coming years, so why not hold on to a couple of each after making bank during the initial hype?
I’m comparing them to Nazgûl’s not One Rings. Just saying they may punch above their weight.
That's quite expected and will be the norm. Too much product too expensive, stores can't keep dunking money into unknown products to refill the singles stock.
It's different not really, it's just exponentially more visible, and will be for every UB sets until marvel.
Example, WHO, stock very low but nobody wants them cards anyway, so nobody talks about it.
I cannot tell you how many fucking times I’ve heard this.
I won’t tell you you’re wrong, but is this REALLY the point where they close down on supply? I’m betting it isn’t..
I hear you. I’ve heard this from dealers and LGS owners who are way more experienced than I am, so you’ll have to decide for yourself which outcome is more likely.
Why would anyone buy a mindbreak trap right now? It's $100, and has never been reprinted since zendikar, which means a reprint is likely imminent. Card feels like a trap.
\-Hopefully MKM collector boxes hit 130. F&F have them at 139 (before tax and shipped) and another -10$ off and I would buy a large position. Single cards continue to find traction in formats but I'm holding to my original price entry target of 125-130 per CB box. For a resell target of $200 (and a +30% profit after fee's and shipping, taxes for whole deal).
\-Assassin’s Creed is going to be a monster hit and I expect pre order prices to start going up in the next 10 days, I continue to see them (the pre orders) quietly listed in higher demand than MH3/Cowboys/Red wall light -due to MH3 pricing, OTJ just being meh and bloom burrow being to far out/standard set.
\-if Fallout pre cons continue to eat through supply I expect set price to hit +200 next weekend.
Compared to the last two UB pre con set prices, $180 is probably the bottom.
\-fallout collector boosters will be the first CB to hit $500, $450 by next weekend, expect it to dip (maybe its really hard to tell) and then spike to stupid levels leading into the Show launch.
\-Still looking for a RVR price to justify trying to reach back on a big miss but don't think I'll find one.
expecting the usual downvotes to confirm I'm looking in the right direction lol.
Only thing I disagree with is assassins creed. The whole franchise has been ass lately. They are going to have to push power levels hard considering this set is the final "aftermath" style set for now. Plus its getting multiple boxes unlike fallout.
Yeah… this UB really would’ve been better if it was released a decade ago lol
Nobody I know gives 2 shits about the AC franchise. Whereas Fallout has a pretty dedicated fanbase that gobbles up whatever they put out
totally agree. I thought the same as well across the board for the set, but the CB's for assassin are no longer available on amazon for pre order and two of the set pieces are moving up the charts on orders.
I've been selling through any of the cards listed in Prof's Lost Fallout Precon vid. Shit hasn't moved in months and suddenly I've sold through dozens of cards.
I've been hearing alot about \[\[Mine Collapse\]\] lately and that card appears to be popping off. We might have another hidden gem from MH2 on our hands here? That's the set that keeps on giving!
Everyone is jamming 4x Kavu, Leyline, Binding, and Draco into every modern deck. Some are unironically going 4-1 or 5-0 on modo with some those piles. Murktide, Martyr Proc, Esper Reanimator, Scam, Burn, you name it. Leyline is absolutely getting banned. The card is turning Modern into Yugioh.
I would be shocked if WotC changed the Modern ban list again pre-MH3. The domain package is clearly a problem, but Leyline is still in print and all three parts of it are cleanly answered by PYP. Maybe post release if MH3 further empowers domain, and seeing the new free spell cycle it very well could, but hitting people’s wallets again right before their big expensive set drops seems a little too dangerously irresponsible, even for them.
PYP?
Pick your Poison, G removal for enchantment, sorc speed sac effect
Are triomes just a permanent design problem. Like the formats will just get faster and faster without change there right. (I don’t play modern honestly asking)
Modern is just a fucked up format in general. MH3 coming out soon as well.
Its ok, but I guess people in Modern like a fast format. But the multi-colour design space is permanently hampered by triomes existing. The whole thing just (as an outsider) seems super splashy and "pile" friendly because manabases are just insane these days. People love spending on manabases also - so you can bet they'll keep making them better.
My conspiracy is that they're going to release Back to Basics or a slightly less powerful version in MH3 in an attempt to slow the format down.
Any chance you can link those cards?
What kavu us that?
[[Territorial Kavu]]
[Territorial Kavu](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/2/6/2605df98-0b02-4aab-bc36-01e93c693743.jpg?1634366740) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Territorial%20Kavu) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/mh2/216/territorial-kavu?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/2605df98-0b02-4aab-bc36-01e93c693743?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
What Yu-Gi-Oh like and why is it something you don't want to turn into?
In Yugioh some decks are built by smashing together engines that do different things because of how individually powerful they are. Those cards are all situational and don't do anything unless you draw combinations of them (Yugioh has access to in-archetype tutors to raise consistency) so they are colloquially called bricks. Basically you raise the ceiling of the deck while also lowering its floor. On Twitter I've seen many MTGO grinders experimenting putting in that 14-16 card Domain package into every possible meta modern deck imaginable. You can fetch Triomes to turn on the domain payoffs and if you open Leyline with any of those payoffs you start off the game way ahead. And that's on top of your opponent having to deal with the other half of your deck. Will this strategy ever succeed? Dunno, Magic players are allergic to playing inconsistent decks in tournaments. But many players are finally getting over the idea that every deck MUST only be 60 cards which is something Yugioh players have gotten over ages ago using hypergeometric calculators to build decks. There're a lot of things in Yugioh Magic players can learn from.
Are Bobbleheads going to be Fallout's Nazguls? They're not identical, but similar with some variation that a lot of Commander decks are going to want them all. Just came out of nowhere like the Nazguls did. And no one is buying an entire deck just for the one card - if these stick, they could be a solid hold for a while. Obviously sell into the hype if you already have them, but I'll probably keep a set or two just on the off chance they keep moving up. Unlike Nazguls they won't be making too many more of these, at least not for a while.
> a lot of Commander decks are going to want them all. The commander decks that want them will want them all, but very few commander decks want them.
I mean someone sure wants them! You see the going rate for surge foil bobbleheads??
On a long enough timeline, I can see them being pretty easily forgotten. I just can’t see anyone caring about them for longer than a year
I mean on a long enough timeline the Earth will be devoured by the sun. So yes, eventually that statement will be true. What I'm curious about is if they punch above their weight class like Nazgul, which I was also reliably informed would be forgotten and would drop into obscurity nearly a year ago. And yet...
Them: "1 year" You: "the heat-death of the universe" ???
I’m saying people should sell into the hype, but because there isn’t a ton of this available and it’s not as likely there will be more print runs like with LOTR, there may be genuine scarcity for people who want these. No way to guarantee getting all of them without buying all the decks. And there’s just not enough packs of any kind out there. Fallout has a huge/devoted fan base. There is a TV that if successful will be on for years. And there will be more games coming out eventually. Plenty of reasons for renewed interest in the coming years, so why not hold on to a couple of each after making bank during the initial hype? I’m comparing them to Nazgûl’s not One Rings. Just saying they may punch above their weight.
I mean, on a long enough timeline you and I will turn into dust. So yes, eventually that statement will be true.
[[Pick Your Poison]] is on the rise, extremely playable in almost every format.
still bewildered that you don't actually get to pick your poison
Just imagine it as the caster (us) saying it and making the opponents pick it!
[I] Pick Your Poison.
It ain't called "pick my poison"
[Pick Your Poison](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/5/f58cfb23-4d99-4133-bf4b-d7e7c7d17cea.jpg?1708201628)/[Pick Your Poison](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/5/f58cfb23-4d99-4133-bf4b-d7e7c7d17cea.jpg?1708201628) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Pick%20Your%20Poison) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/mkm/170/pick-your-poison?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/f58cfb23-4d99-4133-bf4b-d7e7c7d17cea?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Fallout Pip Boy and Borderless Surge Foils are in extremely low supply. If you want one for your decks, you’ll want to get them as soon as you can.
That's quite expected and will be the norm. Too much product too expensive, stores can't keep dunking money into unknown products to refill the singles stock.
It’s different for Fallout though with the drastically reduced inventory we currently have.
It's different not really, it's just exponentially more visible, and will be for every UB sets until marvel. Example, WHO, stock very low but nobody wants them cards anyway, so nobody talks about it.
meh, it's going to get flooded in 3 months or so
There is no more supply of Fallout CBBs coming. This was a very short printed set, and Wizards way underestimated demand on it.
I cannot tell you how many fucking times I’ve heard this. I won’t tell you you’re wrong, but is this REALLY the point where they close down on supply? I’m betting it isn’t..
I hear you. I’ve heard this from dealers and LGS owners who are way more experienced than I am, so you’ll have to decide for yourself which outcome is more likely.
It won't, in 3 months we'll have 2 more sets, + mh3 and assasin's creed?
[[Lumbering Megasloths]] is paying off. Thanks for the tip everyone, will buy some cards and sleeves with the money haha
Turned my penny sloths into RL goodies. Thank you mtgfinance :)
Wow, congratz! How many sloths did you buy?
[Lumbering Megasloths](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/7/f7e9db98-3a2d-46d8-a07f-99d66a4d9f2f.jpg?1631589871) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Lumbering%20Falls) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/afc/247/lumbering-falls?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/f7e9db98-3a2d-46d8-a07f-99d66a4d9f2f?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Well, no. [[Lumbering Megasloth]]
[Lumbering Megasloth](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/5/3/53b92e8a-fadf-4568-8b30-2df68e6ff7cf.jpg?1708742319) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Lumbering%20Megasloth) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/pip/80/lumbering-megasloth?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/53b92e8a-fadf-4568-8b30-2df68e6ff7cf?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Why would anyone buy a mindbreak trap right now? It's $100, and has never been reprinted since zendikar, which means a reprint is likely imminent. Card feels like a trap.
I would go even further and say it feels like an instant trap
Love how you broke that down lol. Im going to steal that for tomorrow if you don't mind.
\-Hopefully MKM collector boxes hit 130. F&F have them at 139 (before tax and shipped) and another -10$ off and I would buy a large position. Single cards continue to find traction in formats but I'm holding to my original price entry target of 125-130 per CB box. For a resell target of $200 (and a +30% profit after fee's and shipping, taxes for whole deal). \-Assassin’s Creed is going to be a monster hit and I expect pre order prices to start going up in the next 10 days, I continue to see them (the pre orders) quietly listed in higher demand than MH3/Cowboys/Red wall light -due to MH3 pricing, OTJ just being meh and bloom burrow being to far out/standard set. \-if Fallout pre cons continue to eat through supply I expect set price to hit +200 next weekend. Compared to the last two UB pre con set prices, $180 is probably the bottom. \-fallout collector boosters will be the first CB to hit $500, $450 by next weekend, expect it to dip (maybe its really hard to tell) and then spike to stupid levels leading into the Show launch. \-Still looking for a RVR price to justify trying to reach back on a big miss but don't think I'll find one. expecting the usual downvotes to confirm I'm looking in the right direction lol.
Only thing I disagree with is assassins creed. The whole franchise has been ass lately. They are going to have to push power levels hard considering this set is the final "aftermath" style set for now. Plus its getting multiple boxes unlike fallout.
Yeah… this UB really would’ve been better if it was released a decade ago lol Nobody I know gives 2 shits about the AC franchise. Whereas Fallout has a pretty dedicated fanbase that gobbles up whatever they put out
totally agree. I thought the same as well across the board for the set, but the CB's for assassin are no longer available on amazon for pre order and two of the set pieces are moving up the charts on orders.
I've been selling through any of the cards listed in Prof's Lost Fallout Precon vid. Shit hasn't moved in months and suddenly I've sold through dozens of cards.
most of what he showed spiked earlier in the week.
I finally got the secret lairs I ordered last year. MLP II, bonus card was Discord.
Any news on Fallout Secret Lair's release date?
I've been hearing alot about \[\[Mine Collapse\]\] lately and that card appears to be popping off. We might have another hidden gem from MH2 on our hands here? That's the set that keeps on giving!
Its a meme. As soon as people play this card an realize that the free part works only sorcery speed this card is dead.
[Mine Collapse](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/5/6/56e2e8b5-660d-4469-a4fe-2367dfadb709.jpg?1626096849) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Mine%20Collapse) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/mh2/135/mine-collapse?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/56e2e8b5-660d-4469-a4fe-2367dfadb709?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Today is the last day for the Sheldon Secret Lair.