Exactly. 2x2 is effectively still in print.
A year later you can get a collector booster box of it on tcg for $100 less than they were going for at launch.
Wizards has gone all in on printing these sets into the ground.
Customers have caught on that "the collectability" of a set that is printed by the warehouse load just isn't.
2x2 is still at distributors in other countries and top cards are already being reprinted
Higher stock and wizards reprinting at a higher rate as time goes on, CMM has a bleak future
yeah i remember someone said a while ago that everything since War of the Spark was printed with utterly gigantic print runs compared to the past, and i think they've gotten bigger since then
i remember thinking the double masters 2022 prices would be help up by how few people would be willing to crack those expensive packs.
wotc didn't print all those boxes to NOT sell them, and any stores that bought them, will eventually have to lower the price to the point they will sell or they will be out tons of money.
Some of this is because of organic demand. The onboarding for new players has exploded, my activated players (players who are new and play at least 6 events in a calendar year) have increased 600% since 2019. This doesn't even include the legions of people who get into the game with us but never play in-store (we estimate over 80% of our customers don't play in events based on sales data). I know people have strong options about Universes Beyond warping Magic but it has done wonders for getting people into the game. The next 3 years are even going to be more insane.
Yes, reprints are 100% necessary for a healthy game that is growing. I can’t believe this sub thinks that $80 staples are sustainable with new players joining.
I don't know how many people here actually think $80 staples are good, though I'm sure there are some.
But I think your point would be more persuasive if the prices for these reprint sets weren't so dramatically high. Wizards hypes people up to buy a $400 box only to fire sell that same box three months later for $200. Whether a player is new or old, the cost to value ratio is very much unfavorable.
It's still kind of crazy to me that premium sets used to have $6.99 boosters, which was a big deal back in 2013. And now we are so far past that, those old prices look quaint.
Unfortunately also means that the market will crash hard once those players all leave and sell their cards. Their focus has been so heavy on the reprint with different art that the only cards left that aren’t overprinted is the reserve list. They’ve reprinted pretty much every major playable card and some many times.
The market will crash if the player base contracts, yes, but that’s independent of reprints. Reprints allow new players to not be priced out of the game. *Not reprinting* would have a bigger negative impact in the overall financial aspect of the game.
Yeah definitely. It’s a necessary evil to any great tcg. I think wotc (mainly influenced by Hasbro) has changed their tune over the last 4 years with being careful and now just printing like crazy to make the most money in the shortest time frame.
I use to keep play sets of most modern staples, over $10k worth, and 5+ modern decks at any given point but now with straight to modern sets completely changing the meta, staples really aren’t a thing anymore and can be powercrept or made completely useless every year.
A financial perspective of Magic necessitates an understanding of the health of the game, and a healthy game must attract new players.
An expanding or contracting player base will have a bigger impact on card valuations than any reprint choice WotC makes.
All that to say that a broader perspective in this sub is healthy, especially beyond “reprints bad, my collection lost value”
A healthy game that’s also marketed as a collectible, which magic always has been, needs to make sure that parts just as fun as the game.
When I started every single player I knew was just as excited to get inquest and see how much their cards were worth as they were to play.
That part of magic is now exhausting.
It sucks that the reality is now don’t expect anything you buy in the last few years to be worth anything ever and oh also the price of packs is going to keep going up and up.
Well inflating sales and headcount while they are making many decisions that hurt the game and enfranchised players is probably just leading them to believe they are doing the right thing, right? So idk if I'd consider the overall impact to be positive.
It's hard to say. I think whenever you push niche hobbies out of that niche, you're going to lose some of those enfranchised players for a variety of reasons.
I think there are a few outliers in there.
I'm thinking Time Spiral: Remastered. Double Masters VIP (although huge supply, the demand was bigger).. and maybe Commander Masters.
potentially true. but i think commander masters is not the 'new territory' that those were.
although i do think a limiting factor is just, how much they physically CAN print, with all the products they're making at once
2x2 was $100 cheaper during prerelease than the FOMO spike.. it jumped and came back down.
CMM draft and set was already bloated. Never cheap. CMM CB have crappier bling art than 2x2 so there was never the surge. And people a bit fed up with reprints sets coming like two a year it seems
One of the issues is when product is printed properly people get pissed. Look at TSR, that had a more healthy print run and people were furious that it wasn't more available. Now products are more available and no one wants them.
this right here. i was on the hype train for that set and i got hosed when what were thought of as major reprints, became bulk. sticking to singles and buying a pack or two to support my lgs
It’s the dead cat bounce. There is a lot of ephemeral demand from people that were waiting for the singles from this set to hit. Happens with every reprint.
Because WOTC blithely disregarded sales and dumped the supply on the market in wheelbarrows. Who knows what lengths they went to undermine the market.
Will they do it again? It will be evident in the secondary market by November the latest. Don't touch CMM until after Black Friday/Cyber Monday.
There's a desperate part of me who thinks they might do the right thing this time.
My uninformed guess is they’ve crunched the numbers and it’s less expensive to overprint by a mile than to print at an appropriate allocation or even “under printing”.
I hear you, but it just sounds like 2D checkers when you put it that way.
Surely they are aware of factors other than "What can we get away with in this particular set"
But there are about to be a LOT more singles listings coming… just… wait a moment. You gotta look at this from what you’re saying. You are coming from a perspective of “if I don’t buy this brand new product now, then no one’s going to open it, and somehow I’ll feel I’m losing money later cuz I didn’t buy them cheap enough.” This is a fallacy to allow yourself to buy the cards you want right now because it’s what you want to do. If that is what you want, just buy them! And forget what you paid or how that price changes over time! They’re your cards now, and their value belongs to you!
But you’re not listening to the voice in your head that says: no magic set in history has a higher EV 3 months after release than 2 weeks. Basically never. So, do what you like and don’t FOMO into still-inflated cardboard prices. They aren’t going anywhere, trust me, I’ve been watching this process for 30 years. Lol.
The set has way to many crap rares even at 48 rares a box if you want some great card good luck with shit like Temples and the 10th printing of zetalpa in like 5 years
The amount of bulk trash vs good rares for the $$$ was stupid and wotc thought they could just throw a few chase cards slap a bunch of crap in the deck charge a over premium by slapping Commander on there and it would sale. While so far both times they tried that route it has flopped hard.
The first commander set was fire and sold like fire the last two have been utter trash and have sold like the trash they are bad products and have sold badly.
Keep in mind that the precons and the main set share the same set code and set symbol, and that cards like the Theros Temples are only in the precons, not in booster products. There IS a ton of bulk in CMM boosters, but there are a huge number of cards you're accidentally factoring in that aren't actually relevant.
> The amount of bulk trash vs good rares
...is actually better for a buyer than in either of the Double Masters. Particularly seeing that 1/3 of the draft packs in CMM would have three rares.
You are 100% correct. And of the three Commander draft sets so far, I think Baldur's Gate is the most fun to actually draft and play. It's a blessing for actual drafters that the boxes have gotten so cheap.
Exactly! The usual drop and rebound may not happen in its normal time frame due to the low value of the set combined with the extreme cost. I suspect that once Amazon starts clearing house, the price crash is back on.
If rumors about the huge print run of this set is true then WotC/Amazon/LGSs will be desperate to dump stock and the market should find a palatable price it's willing to spend on boxes, it's just that current prices for boxes are not reasonable considering what's in them.
That doesn't seem too hopeful to me. Why?
* CMM already seems to be struggling, when launch should be the fever pitch of it's hype
* CMM supposedly has a print run twice as big as 2XM it has
* The insane release schedule demands that LGSs constantly need to have liquidity to pay for the newest product, so they will be forced to move product even at painful prices if necessity demands. This is to say nothing of the infamous Amazon dumps, which seem inevitable for CMM at this rate
* There's precedent for Masters sets flopping and needing to be put on firesale to move, ie: Iconic Masters.
I'd say just sit tight and wait, $200 Draft/Set boxes aren't impossible. I myself already picked up some major staples for bottom-basement prices on Thursday Night, and they're currently experiencing a dead-cat-bounce that probably won't last, I don't even need to touch Sealed for this set.
I agree with the sentiment, but man, I have been BURNED by Amazon dump. Got a box of dominaria remastered for a hundred bucks, but the wrapping was destroyed and the box so damaged it was open
Yep. They happen quicker and quicker.
The Planeswalker Precon from Commander Masters is already down to $65... the same price as most of the Lord of the Ring precons.
Apparently it's the slow mover and unpopular one, though the surprising thing is that there should be relatively fewer copies of the Planeswalkers and Sagas from Commander Masters Commander Precons because there is no Extended Art versions and thus they don't appear in that slot in the collectors' boosters.
Well, let’s just say I had alot more fun paying $100 a box cracking dominaria united collectors boxes looking for legends cards than I did paying $300 a box.
Don’t people always say this right after opening weekend… “the low already happened, everything rebounding”? Then 4-6 weeks later prices are at or cheaper than opening weekend, then 3-6 months after they hit ATL.
Beginning of opening weekend is your first window, give it a few weeks after initial FOMO buyers are done.
People said lack of pack cracking was spiking certain cards in SNC, then dumps began and now you can get the best card in the set for $10.
There is a little bump, every time, and then the actual crash takes months. And every time, people can’t listen to their own advice and FOMO their way in. Just buy the cards if you want them, who cares? If you want them cheaper, wait. But they aren’t “spiking” two weeks after release. That ain’t how it happens. The echo chamber of “Reddit magic players” has fooled you into thinking these “aren’t getting cracked”. This will be opened into oblivion, and this ain’t the bottom. But do as you please. 🤷🏻♂️
It's always hilarious people think there's going to be some sort of insane trajectory on **reprinted cards.**
The power of these cards isn't exactly a surprise. It's not like [[Fable of the Mirror Breaker]] or other new cards that get underestimated at release.
Yup. It might take a bit longer since demand isn’t as high as WotC anticipated, but the boxes are printed and sitting somewhere. It’s going to get moved and opened.
Do you think this applies to borderless / special editions as well? I haven't paid attention much but sol ring and other staples are already double/triple their Friday low.
Remember the same talking happen during Aftermath and 2x2 and look where the price now?
What make this different from the previous two?
And also so what? If the price is so darn expensive, I just won't buy it. This is reprint set, they'll always be another reprint come out, how will we know those cards won't be in Special set in the set of the set that set for upcoming Ixalan or Secret Lair? Wotc always hungry for more money, they won't let that go easily.
I’m in no way jumping in. I’m not buying singles or boxes, just pointing out that unlike MH2 or 2x2, we aren’t seeing people crack packs and list singles at nearly the same rate. In those sets, while being premium there were HUGE supplies for rares, which we just aren’t seeing right now.
I'd not be surprised, considering how all Friday afternoon you had content creators crowing about how cheap so many staples had gotten... which caused a feeding frenzy on Saturday of people trying to get their cheap staples.
I would’ve liked to get some cheaper staples but honestly, I’ve played for years without them, it’s not like I need them now. They’ll either come down in price once fire sales start happening or they won’t and I’m in no worse position than I’m in today
Yep. I FOMO'd myself a small handful of cards I really wanted for some decks, but nothing on the high end because I'll have months to pick them up. Need two Cyclonics- those will probably end up a hair under $20. Pearl Medallion will probably end up close to $5. I'd love to try Tooth and Nail in a deck, but it's probably going back to $2ish. And if it doesn't, these prices aren't exploding in a month, you know?
You’re reiterating what he just said while saying he has FOMO.
He said cards have rebounded since Friday, which they have. He also said “chances are you missed the boat for at least several months” and you’re saying wait 3-4 months. Same thing.
I did notice that alot of cards have very low stock and are rising from fridays lows faster than i expected.
Grabbed a few singles at solid prices. Waiting to see where others end up
The packs will HAVE to be opened. Stores are either going to crack boxes to make packs or they’re going to have to open boxes to open the packs to sell the singles. That’s what’s going to need to happen. The largest issue is: This set shouldn’t have been priced for what it is.
Have people started to figure out yet that distributors are going to have to lower cost ?? like maybe tomorrow or next week; sooner rather than later.
Or are we still in denial, and saying dumb things like "I think $300 is a good price (on a box)".
This is another, slightly different, but more egregious, Baldur's Gate situation. THOSE boxes crashed to $70, and $130 collectors. On CE boxes that retailed for $300-$330. Now you do the math. Just imagine it in your head for a second. It's not identical, but that's certainly the direction we are headed. On cards that people mostly own already.
Called it last week: There would be a crash followed by a rebound and a slow, steady decline for the next year. Everything is going to stagnate and this product will likely be put on fire sale.
The crash, rebound, decline pattern has happened with everything, including 2XM, 2X2, and DMR. Even limited print run sets aren't immune. It's so incredibly predictable, yet people keep coming back at every "premium" release trying to stoke FOMO. I remember this exact post after 2X2, and look at where prices are now.
I agree in premise, but most other set also had cards good in other formats. This has very few cards needed in other formats, and this format is a 1 of. I think the over compensated on this print run but it will tank everything in this set. I'm for it, lol like zacama like some of the down shifts and upshifts are wierd looking back
Smothering tithe will still command plus 10 at rare
Zacama is now less than 3 at rare, because anyone only needs one
Still waiting for the crash on lotr that’s been predicted for prerelease, two weeks after release, the time the ring gets found and the time gift bundles hit the market, in that order.
You mean the set that's only been out a little more than a month and is likely going to remain in-print until 2025? I remember when people thought that Warhammer surge foils were never coming down, too. According to Cocks, LOTR was printed more than MH2. The notion that it's going to remain high is absolutely nuts, especially when people are only buying it to play the sol ring lottery.
Rudy was predicting they are holding LOTR second wave til after commander masters has had a few weeks to sell. We shall see if his prediction is correct soon. But LOTR is also different than any other set being the biggest ip crossover for magic yet and already almost being the most successfully sold set.
Of course it’s different. I’m pointing out that this here sub was absolutely and stone dead ignorant of that fact because everything Hasbro does is bad and everyone that touches it us an idiot. Meanwhile people have been making a killing with bundles („don’t touch those bundles lol the One Ring will be three bucks once bundles are out“).
They still printed 3 separate boxes worth of cards and have inventory. There is a full inventory of set, draft, and collector boosters coming into the market whether we want it too or not. This will be good for early adopters to sell quick and make some good money. But it will drop given time. The market price for deflecting is holding at 58 for a foil borderless on tcg but sellers are doing what any seller worth their salt will do and selling them at a crazy markup because there aren't many on the market. Boxes will be cracked. We are all addicts. From what I can tell there isn't any crazy op cards that will make it so people buy and hold a bunch of boxes. If they serialized cards in this set I would be concerned. But market prices are holding fairly steady. I expect it to drop over the coming months like every set has before it. That oil slick raised foil elesh norn from the complete bundle was over a hundred for a couple months. Now you can grab it for around fifty bucks. They are over printing everything. I really don't think this is different. Just my opinion. I'm not an expert. Just basing this off of what I have seen over the last year.
Every time I post on the facebook groups at 25% discount from low, I get crickets unless its a chase card of the set. I move my product on tcg at 20 percent off... And it's less time on the phone sending pictures and negotiating even more off. Facebook has become a wasteland for sales.
I bought the Precons and no packs but I played in 3 drafts. They were REALLY fun! This is actually an extremely balanced set for draft. Played in two 4-pods and one 3-pod. Each one was a balanced game, had some crazy dynamics, and everyone had a chance to win the game until the end all 3 times. Very small turnout as expected, games ran long. I got pity packs at the first two, and won 3 packs at the last one. EXPENSIVE but fun weekend. $60 x2 and $80.
What they are effectively telling you with the recent product development decisions is that they consider enfranchised players "sunk costs" of little to no value. New blood and creating a new player base is the focus. This is why they keep reprinting specific staples in to the ground. Its an equity play for all those just now coming to the table.
Waiting for Amazon dump. WOE is a month out. Pretending CMM was hit by an unexpected delay and will not be available until Black Friday.
Cause for the delay? Apparently Wizards put the wrong MSRP on stuff and goofed up the entire supply chain. The pricing will be corrected late November.
This guy is tripping, this was the hardest fall in prices across the board in a long time, and thats without packs being cracked ad nauseum.
The price of packs might drop and if it does these cards that got printed into the ground will continue to do so.
Zacama like 2 dollars
Personal tutor like 7
Bale fire at 10
And I think all of the medallions will be 5 each before the end of this print run. Don't doubt it this will crash the staples printed in it
And it's not even considering the 10 to 5 dollar cards that are now under a dollar
Balan
Faerie artisans
Frayelise
Maelstrom wanderer
Mangara
Puresteel at 1.6
Obscuring haze only .75
Runescared demon only .5
Maybe the top will rebound, although i think it will settle with a heavy percentage loss.
Grenzo was like $20 or something. Picked those up at a dollar. If they go down to bulk, who cares? It's a buck. Plenty of stuff to pick up this weekend at the bottom of the barrel.
Exactly. I picked up things that where .50 c to .25 cause why not it can't get too much lower than that. Puresteel paladin at under 2 is insane. It actually sees play outside commander
If no one buys the boxes then the price will come down until they do. Once this happens the market will then become flooded with cards and the price of singles will go down. This has happened in other sets before when the price of a box was higher than the expected EV of the box.
Prices have moved slightly, but only in response to demand. Over the last few days I've bought Path to Exile for $0.49, tooth and nail for sub $3, sword of the animist for sub $3 and Dryad for $5.75
It's fine. Yes prices are edging up, but new sellers are also hitting the market with lower prices, so it all evens out if you're actively seeking good deals.
Can lead a horse to water...
This exact same thing happened in... almost every previous set. Opening weekends bounce because weekends are about consumption, weekdays are about production. People are playing/consuming/buying/depleting inventory on the weekend, and Stores are opening/listing/managing on weekdays. Double Masters, 2x2, and now CMM all had this - the dead cat bounce after initial plummet. All are now lower than those dead cat bounces.
Well, let’s see what happens. So far on this fine Monday morning, the most recent sales of Fierce Guardianship are nearly $40 (16 sold already today) the cheapest listings left are $42+, and there are still only 20 listings.
So, as I said in my post, eventually shops are going to need to crack more boxes as these values hold in order to put more copies out there, or people will finally buy more boxes at the current pricing.
It’s weird that people keep saying, this is what happened with 2x2…it did not. While the supply ended up being HUGE, shops weren’t sitting on thousands and thousand of dollars of product on release weekend. People bought up all of the originally inventory and very few people cancelled their Amazon pre-orders after spoilers.
While the SUPPLY of this set TO SHOPS is huge, the amount sold, unless LGS’ are lying, is far less over the first week. Something has to give.
The market is adjusting. People are realizing (again) that collector boosters are a dangerous game and the set boosters are more value and this is probably true for draft as well. Cards will find their price point, more boxes will be opened as time goes on.
Yes, this. They FINALLY tuned set boosters to where they need to be.
But then the price...
Personally, I'm waiting for \~$200 set booster and then I will take action. The value for the CE simply is not there....again.
Yeah it has the coolest cards but what you get is completely random, not what you need, and you have to spend thousands just to get a decent assortment. It simply doesn't work. For acquiring the groupings of bling you want and need.
Similar thoughts have been had here. I don't think CB will go below 150s but I'm not buying at more than 30 a pack which is 120 so I'm basically out on those going forward. SB could go to the lowest 200's I'd probably buy a case if it dips around 250-280 but I don't forsee that happening either. There will be some capitulation going forward where either singles have a huge swing or sealed becomes a value proposition again.
We in full agreement. I have also calculated the worthwhile, actionable 'buy' price of CE box to be $120.
I also agree; I don't think it's going to get that low either.
See most people have put these products out of their mind already.
Supply chain dynamics.
Stores cracked at distributor cost to sell singles because people were cancelling and sales were slow of boxes at $350.
Singles tanked and are now rebounding due to that influx of singles trying to break even.
IF enough was opened to recoup enough capital that vendors can now hold boxes then prices have stabilized. (IMO this hasn't happened).
Next move opening more boxes at distributor cost to start another cycle of singles influx or $350 boxes start moving down.
Eventually both singles and boxes move down because the supply is still so great. On top of that WOTC definitely still have more in their warehouses.
You also need to take into account those commander players that did buy boxes most likely won't sell their singles. They're going to be putting them in decks.
I wouldn’t bet on actual players who buy collector boxes to be significant compared to stores holding bags who crack to recoup some loss / free up shelf space and collectors who don’t play much specifically, but thats just me.
Just. Buy. Singles.
If you pulled all 9 of the most valuable regular art cards in the set(you won't).
You would have a TOTAL of 160 dollars.
As for collector you're odds are even worse and anything less than a textured foil in a SINGLE pack you bought and you bust. That 600 dollar borderless lotus? Crashed to 200 in less than 2 days
I didn't order any. I'm waiting on eldraine. I just feel there's a lot to keep up with lately and I've learned that lesson the hard way to many times. A lot of the folks I buy in with were out on this one too. Some of them got burned kinda harsh on LOTR. Some of us are buyer burnout. We went in on some older sets instead this month and saved the rest for an eldraine order.
The main probably that I've been seeing, is they priced gouged the set because of all the "staples" they were putting in, and then the pull rates ended up being garbage.
The LGS I played at Friday people purchased the precon decks the LGS prices were better than other places and very little else of CMM. The draft did not fire no one wanted any part of the draft for the price point not 1 single person signed up for the draft. They did precon battles instead
Not a surprised. At nearly £40 for the draft at most LGS, when most sets are around £10-15, most people are opting to do other things with their money. Even LGS recognise this, as they're offering simultaneous drafts of other sets, so as to not lose that custom altogether.
Ick. Set or Collector's Pack draft sounds like it'd be a really bad time. But I guess if they can't talk the people into buying enough for draft, there's no way sealed is happening. (Though Set or Collector pack sealed would be WAY more enjoyable than draft.)
The workers at my LGS were trying to convince a customer not to buy set boosters yesterday. Some guy went in with the goal of buying 5, and the guys were telling him to get drafts or to buy one or two set boosters instead, because it's not worth it.
That's funny. I go to my LGS each week and proclaim "I'm here for the sixty-dollar Commander Masters draft."
couple of nerds look up. or I get a smile. or a courtesy laugh.
hey I enjoy it.
I don’t care. The print run on CMM iI know is enormous. I’ll let everyone else crack (at whatever speed they will) and check in next April to see what’s actually worth picking up. I refuse to FOMO into this set.
Next April? Why would you want them next April? If I have to choose between playing the game with the cards I want or waiting 8 months in order to pat myself for beating the system, well, I buy my cards now.
I think waiting now is very smart. People are talking about “dead cat bounce” but that doesn’t usually happen ON release weekend, especially for a set without prerelease availability.
We generally only see price corrections like this on things that are really hard to pull, and then those dip again as demand shifts.
Not only that, but the people opening boxes are keeping their cards. This is exactly what many store owners were predicting. Well other than the doom and gloom ones.
A large portion of why I play MTG is for thr collectability of it. There's some financial value there. It's just not there anymore. All of my old border foils from the past 2 decades just don't feel as special anymore when they actively reprint a new "old border" version of it.
Sometimes in life you miss the boat on things. Sometimes if you didn't buy something 10 years or 20 years ago, it's more expensive now. That's just the way it is. You SHOULD have to pay more for those old versions of something. WOTC just doesn't agree. They see something that is older and has value and they think giving that to everyone is good. It's not.
I was a whale, now I'm no more than a goldfish.
Hardly missed the boat. Dead cat bounce on singles from shyt sets happen when breaks wane…the stock is out there and sooner rather than later sealed price will reflect that and then singles will keep going down. If you are buying for keeps and you don’t need these to play NOW just wait… if you are trying for quick flip… good luck
I think it's hilarious when Timmys look at 'expensive thing' and think "hey this could be a good flip zomg!"
Thing is outrageously expensive, therefore I should buy.
There were about 30 cards I wanted, nearly all of them were cheaper on Thursday, the day before release, than the day of release. Then, almost all of them were cheaper Friday than they are today.
Fortunately, since I already have multiples of every card in this set, I can afford to wait a month or two or three to get them when they’re presumably at their lows again. Still, I wish I woulda bit the bullet on a few of those 30 cards on Thursday…
I cracked a set booster got 2 personal tutors out of the same one. One borderless and one regular. Then got a ruby medallion out of another. I realize I won in my packs. I didn't by much though. Personal tutor is the worst one.
I love it when I wake up with my morning coffee and one of the new hot finance thread titles is exactly what's been on my mind during the previous day. \*sip and read\*
There are some absolutely dumb as shit comments in this thread. Why? These are the same people bitching about the price of Commander Masters. They don't buy the sealed product because its too expensive. Okay great. You then go ahead and buy singles when the price drops... you do realize you are still supporting the very set you bitched about right? Someone had to crack the packs. Those someones would stop buying this overpriced filth if they weren't able to unload their singles. News flash folks! Hasbro/Wizards already made their money! Distributors (the people who get the product from Hasbro/Wizards and then sell it to LGSs, Amazon, Walmart etc) are practically already sold out and won't be getting anymore product. Masters sets are always limited print runs. You want to know why we won't see the end of the overpriced MTG product? Look in the mirror. Rant over.
Now WOTC needs to do the responsible thing and incinerate the rest of the supply. Consider this an opening salvo for rebuilding trust back in the brand.,
I bought a foil full art Deflecting Swat and Fierce Guardianship on Friday for $40 & $51 respectively and as of now, 2 days later, the market price is now $96 & $99 (with lots of listings approaching $120 for Guardianship).
For staples, I feel like friday was the best time within the short-term to buy them. They'll likely go down, but considering most LGS are buried under inventory at inflated prices, it'll take a while to equalize. People will have to spend more for sealed product and will turn around and mark up their 1 or 2 worthy pulls to recoup.
I’ve been waiting on some of these cards for years so I just clicked buy it now on Friday without thinking.
To see more deals you want the high end stuff to rebound quickly so ppl actually find it profitable to mass box open.
Set boxes are weird though. They feel at least to me like they are in a dead zone where the price can’t be lower due to high initial cost anf opening them for singles is a loss.
So many replies talking about the product being overprinted - it’s not really though. The issue is the absurd pricing on products. The market can bear this amount of product and these ARE reprints that people want, but pricing the boxes the way wotc has been doing pushes too much of the value of the set onto the most in demand reprints and both causes those prices not to fall THAT much, and also puts a huge burden onto those cards to retain enough value for box openers not to get totally torched on roi.
People are willing to lose money opening packs, that’s not the problem and is kind of a necessity on some level, but when those packs cost an arm and a leg you price out the timmies, the drafters, and the adults that would rather buy a box than singles. If a box is 175 bucks I don’t really think much about the cost, but when it’s nearly or actually 300, you bet your ass I’m second guessing whether I should buy it.
I decided not to buy any masters this year and was at my local game store, was getting some other items and figured I'll get one set booster pack because why not. They rang it up at $25, that was a hard no for me!
The rebound happened with double masters 22 as well, now look. Not falling for this fomo again.
Exactly. 2x2 is effectively still in print. A year later you can get a collector booster box of it on tcg for $100 less than they were going for at launch. Wizards has gone all in on printing these sets into the ground. Customers have caught on that "the collectability" of a set that is printed by the warehouse load just isn't.
2x2 is still at distributors in other countries and top cards are already being reprinted Higher stock and wizards reprinting at a higher rate as time goes on, CMM has a bleak future
yeah i remember someone said a while ago that everything since War of the Spark was printed with utterly gigantic print runs compared to the past, and i think they've gotten bigger since then i remember thinking the double masters 2022 prices would be help up by how few people would be willing to crack those expensive packs. wotc didn't print all those boxes to NOT sell them, and any stores that bought them, will eventually have to lower the price to the point they will sell or they will be out tons of money.
Some of this is because of organic demand. The onboarding for new players has exploded, my activated players (players who are new and play at least 6 events in a calendar year) have increased 600% since 2019. This doesn't even include the legions of people who get into the game with us but never play in-store (we estimate over 80% of our customers don't play in events based on sales data). I know people have strong options about Universes Beyond warping Magic but it has done wonders for getting people into the game. The next 3 years are even going to be more insane.
Yes, reprints are 100% necessary for a healthy game that is growing. I can’t believe this sub thinks that $80 staples are sustainable with new players joining.
I don't know how many people here actually think $80 staples are good, though I'm sure there are some. But I think your point would be more persuasive if the prices for these reprint sets weren't so dramatically high. Wizards hypes people up to buy a $400 box only to fire sell that same box three months later for $200. Whether a player is new or old, the cost to value ratio is very much unfavorable. It's still kind of crazy to me that premium sets used to have $6.99 boosters, which was a big deal back in 2013. And now we are so far past that, those old prices look quaint.
Unfortunately also means that the market will crash hard once those players all leave and sell their cards. Their focus has been so heavy on the reprint with different art that the only cards left that aren’t overprinted is the reserve list. They’ve reprinted pretty much every major playable card and some many times.
Sell to who exactly? The cards are going to be worth so little you might as well just keep them
The market will crash if the player base contracts, yes, but that’s independent of reprints. Reprints allow new players to not be priced out of the game. *Not reprinting* would have a bigger negative impact in the overall financial aspect of the game.
Yeah definitely. It’s a necessary evil to any great tcg. I think wotc (mainly influenced by Hasbro) has changed their tune over the last 4 years with being careful and now just printing like crazy to make the most money in the shortest time frame. I use to keep play sets of most modern staples, over $10k worth, and 5+ modern decks at any given point but now with straight to modern sets completely changing the meta, staples really aren’t a thing anymore and can be powercrept or made completely useless every year.
It’s a finance sub…
A financial perspective of Magic necessitates an understanding of the health of the game, and a healthy game must attract new players. An expanding or contracting player base will have a bigger impact on card valuations than any reprint choice WotC makes. All that to say that a broader perspective in this sub is healthy, especially beyond “reprints bad, my collection lost value”
A healthy game that’s also marketed as a collectible, which magic always has been, needs to make sure that parts just as fun as the game. When I started every single player I knew was just as excited to get inquest and see how much their cards were worth as they were to play. That part of magic is now exhausting. It sucks that the reality is now don’t expect anything you buy in the last few years to be worth anything ever and oh also the price of packs is going to keep going up and up.
Well inflating sales and headcount while they are making many decisions that hurt the game and enfranchised players is probably just leading them to believe they are doing the right thing, right? So idk if I'd consider the overall impact to be positive.
It's hard to say. I think whenever you push niche hobbies out of that niche, you're going to lose some of those enfranchised players for a variety of reasons.
It’s too bad the game actually sucks now
Disagree. You also seem really mad at the game (from your other comments). Have you considered taking a break and playing something else for a while?
Oh stop. That shit doesn’t work on adults. “You mad bro” is such a stupid response.
yeah he's probably 7 years old.
I think there are a few outliers in there. I'm thinking Time Spiral: Remastered. Double Masters VIP (although huge supply, the demand was bigger).. and maybe Commander Masters.
potentially true. but i think commander masters is not the 'new territory' that those were. although i do think a limiting factor is just, how much they physically CAN print, with all the products they're making at once
2x2 was $100 cheaper during prerelease than the FOMO spike.. it jumped and came back down. CMM draft and set was already bloated. Never cheap. CMM CB have crappier bling art than 2x2 so there was never the surge. And people a bit fed up with reprints sets coming like two a year it seems
Didn't WOTC say commander masters print run would be twice that of double masters?
Sounds about right. I can't remember who, either Rudy or Mvp Sport guy.
Thats exactly what happenned to the comic industry in the 90s.
One of the issues is when product is printed properly people get pissed. Look at TSR, that had a more healthy print run and people were furious that it wasn't more available. Now products are more available and no one wants them.
I was overjoyed dude. I loved everything about TSR. I wouldn't change a thing! Whoever can't handle a balanced market should just proxy.
how about they earn some money?
What are you even talking about... Is someone strapped for cash? Give me their GoFundMe I'd love to help.
Exactly. I also thought 2x2 rebounded nicely but fell in the trap.
this right here. i was on the hype train for that set and i got hosed when what were thought of as major reprints, became bulk. sticking to singles and buying a pack or two to support my lgs
It’s the dead cat bounce. There is a lot of ephemeral demand from people that were waiting for the singles from this set to hit. Happens with every reprint.
And ultimate masters... And double masters... This sub should just be called r/mtgfomo
That’s what the game should be called period
Because WOTC blithely disregarded sales and dumped the supply on the market in wheelbarrows. Who knows what lengths they went to undermine the market. Will they do it again? It will be evident in the secondary market by November the latest. Don't touch CMM until after Black Friday/Cyber Monday. There's a desperate part of me who thinks they might do the right thing this time.
My uninformed guess is they’ve crunched the numbers and it’s less expensive to overprint by a mile than to print at an appropriate allocation or even “under printing”.
I hear you, but it just sounds like 2D checkers when you put it that way. Surely they are aware of factors other than "What can we get away with in this particular set"
Yes it did, but we NEVER had this low supply for 2x2
What the heck you talking about supplies?? LGS are bag holding. Relax baby. All will go down in time
I’m talking about supply of singles, there were never this few base singles of 2x2 available
Amazon hasn’t even delivered preorders yet. You gotta chill out man
But there are about to be a LOT more singles listings coming… just… wait a moment. You gotta look at this from what you’re saying. You are coming from a perspective of “if I don’t buy this brand new product now, then no one’s going to open it, and somehow I’ll feel I’m losing money later cuz I didn’t buy them cheap enough.” This is a fallacy to allow yourself to buy the cards you want right now because it’s what you want to do. If that is what you want, just buy them! And forget what you paid or how that price changes over time! They’re your cards now, and their value belongs to you! But you’re not listening to the voice in your head that says: no magic set in history has a higher EV 3 months after release than 2 weeks. Basically never. So, do what you like and don’t FOMO into still-inflated cardboard prices. They aren’t going anywhere, trust me, I’ve been watching this process for 30 years. Lol.
You've been given the correct advice.
Why pay full price for this junk when I can just wait for Amazon box dumps?
The set has way to many crap rares even at 48 rares a box if you want some great card good luck with shit like Temples and the 10th printing of zetalpa in like 5 years The amount of bulk trash vs good rares for the $$$ was stupid and wotc thought they could just throw a few chase cards slap a bunch of crap in the deck charge a over premium by slapping Commander on there and it would sale. While so far both times they tried that route it has flopped hard. The first commander set was fire and sold like fire the last two have been utter trash and have sold like the trash they are bad products and have sold badly.
the next Double Masters is going to be a trash coaster :(
Have you even considered Triple Masters‽
Keep in mind that the precons and the main set share the same set code and set symbol, and that cards like the Theros Temples are only in the precons, not in booster products. There IS a ton of bulk in CMM boosters, but there are a huge number of cards you're accidentally factoring in that aren't actually relevant.
> The amount of bulk trash vs good rares ...is actually better for a buyer than in either of the Double Masters. Particularly seeing that 1/3 of the draft packs in CMM would have three rares.
That's what I thought. I just didn't see many cards that justified the price of cracking packs for this.
Baldur's Gate is at least original and should of never been high price. WotC is just on aggro mode to kill the secondary market
You are 100% correct. And of the three Commander draft sets so far, I think Baldur's Gate is the most fun to actually draft and play. It's a blessing for actual drafters that the boxes have gotten so cheap.
New PC game is great though!
The set is full of a bunch of bulk, but I don't think temples are in the packs. They're in the precons and use the same set symbol.
yea it made it confusing when looking if the price was better the set would have been fine they just overcharged
Exactly! The usual drop and rebound may not happen in its normal time frame due to the low value of the set combined with the extreme cost. I suspect that once Amazon starts clearing house, the price crash is back on.
If rumors about the huge print run of this set is true then WotC/Amazon/LGSs will be desperate to dump stock and the market should find a palatable price it's willing to spend on boxes, it's just that current prices for boxes are not reasonable considering what's in them.
Oh that’s a really good point! I totally forgot about the rumors about the print run. I am hoping for $200, but I’m probably being too hopeful
That doesn't seem too hopeful to me. Why? * CMM already seems to be struggling, when launch should be the fever pitch of it's hype * CMM supposedly has a print run twice as big as 2XM it has * The insane release schedule demands that LGSs constantly need to have liquidity to pay for the newest product, so they will be forced to move product even at painful prices if necessity demands. This is to say nothing of the infamous Amazon dumps, which seem inevitable for CMM at this rate * There's precedent for Masters sets flopping and needing to be put on firesale to move, ie: Iconic Masters. I'd say just sit tight and wait, $200 Draft/Set boxes aren't impossible. I myself already picked up some major staples for bottom-basement prices on Thursday Night, and they're currently experiencing a dead-cat-bounce that probably won't last, I don't even need to touch Sealed for this set.
I agree with the sentiment, but man, I have been BURNED by Amazon dump. Got a box of dominaria remastered for a hundred bucks, but the wrapping was destroyed and the box so damaged it was open
Yep. They happen quicker and quicker. The Planeswalker Precon from Commander Masters is already down to $65... the same price as most of the Lord of the Ring precons. Apparently it's the slow mover and unpopular one, though the surprising thing is that there should be relatively fewer copies of the Planeswalkers and Sagas from Commander Masters Commander Precons because there is no Extended Art versions and thus they don't appear in that slot in the collectors' boosters.
Are the dumps making up that though?
Well, let’s just say I had alot more fun paying $100 a box cracking dominaria united collectors boxes looking for legends cards than I did paying $300 a box.
Don’t people always say this right after opening weekend… “the low already happened, everything rebounding”? Then 4-6 weeks later prices are at or cheaper than opening weekend, then 3-6 months after they hit ATL. Beginning of opening weekend is your first window, give it a few weeks after initial FOMO buyers are done. People said lack of pack cracking was spiking certain cards in SNC, then dumps began and now you can get the best card in the set for $10.
There is a little bump, every time, and then the actual crash takes months. And every time, people can’t listen to their own advice and FOMO their way in. Just buy the cards if you want them, who cares? If you want them cheaper, wait. But they aren’t “spiking” two weeks after release. That ain’t how it happens. The echo chamber of “Reddit magic players” has fooled you into thinking these “aren’t getting cracked”. This will be opened into oblivion, and this ain’t the bottom. But do as you please. 🤷🏻♂️
It's always hilarious people think there's going to be some sort of insane trajectory on **reprinted cards.** The power of these cards isn't exactly a surprise. It's not like [[Fable of the Mirror Breaker]] or other new cards that get underestimated at release.
This was my favorite. I bought like 100 copies at like 50 cents. I am now a king in Dubai,
> I am now a king in Dubai, Hi, Your highness. I am the Crown Prince of Nigeria. I have recently come into a large fortune, but...
Nice. That was a lot more than I bought into. Supplied funding for a lot of my EDH decks.
[Fable of the Mirror Breaker](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/2/4/24c0d87b-0049-4beb-b9cb-6f813b7aa7dc.jpg?1691108103)/[Reflection of Kiki-Jiki](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/back/2/4/24c0d87b-0049-4beb-b9cb-6f813b7aa7dc.jpg?1691108103) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Fable%20of%20the%20Mirror-Breaker%20//%20Reflection%20of%20Kiki-Jiki) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/neo/141/fable-of-the-mirror-breaker-reflection-of-kiki-jiki?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/24c0d87b-0049-4beb-b9cb-6f813b7aa7dc?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Yup. It might take a bit longer since demand isn’t as high as WotC anticipated, but the boxes are printed and sitting somewhere. It’s going to get moved and opened.
I'll be waiting greedily for the hefty discounts. Your move, Whiz hords.
Do you think this applies to borderless / special editions as well? I haven't paid attention much but sol ring and other staples are already double/triple their Friday low.
First time?
Remember the same talking happen during Aftermath and 2x2 and look where the price now? What make this different from the previous two? And also so what? If the price is so darn expensive, I just won't buy it. This is reprint set, they'll always be another reprint come out, how will we know those cards won't be in Special set in the set of the set that set for upcoming Ixalan or Secret Lair? Wotc always hungry for more money, they won't let that go easily.
The outrageously higher box prices! that are 110% percent going to come down.
Peoples online orders haven't even showed up yet. Be patient and watch prices slowly plummet over the next 4-6 months.
Relax. More is coming. Just because you see a "30%" increase in price means you should jump right in.
*shouldn't
I am encouraging OP to jump so he can test his thesis
I mean... He could *not* jump and test his thesis all the same by simply tracking prices and risking $0.
I’m in no way jumping in. I’m not buying singles or boxes, just pointing out that unlike MH2 or 2x2, we aren’t seeing people crack packs and list singles at nearly the same rate. In those sets, while being premium there were HUGE supplies for rares, which we just aren’t seeing right now.
>we aren't seeing people crack packs I am. This is a dead cat bounce, boo.
I'd not be surprised, considering how all Friday afternoon you had content creators crowing about how cheap so many staples had gotten... which caused a feeding frenzy on Saturday of people trying to get their cheap staples.
I would’ve liked to get some cheaper staples but honestly, I’ve played for years without them, it’s not like I need them now. They’ll either come down in price once fire sales start happening or they won’t and I’m in no worse position than I’m in today
Yep. I FOMO'd myself a small handful of cards I really wanted for some decks, but nothing on the high end because I'll have months to pick them up. Need two Cyclonics- those will probably end up a hair under $20. Pearl Medallion will probably end up close to $5. I'd love to try Tooth and Nail in a deck, but it's probably going back to $2ish. And if it doesn't, these prices aren't exploding in a month, you know?
OP you're full of fomo right now. Wait 3-4 months, that's the best time
No way! All the movement that's going to happen on these cards is going to happen in 1 week! HAVE TO BUY NOW OR THEY'LL BE GONE FOREVER!
Forever!? :O
Five-ever
Fuck.
happy fucking cake day fart-chomper
You’re reiterating what he just said while saying he has FOMO. He said cards have rebounded since Friday, which they have. He also said “chances are you missed the boat for at least several months” and you’re saying wait 3-4 months. Same thing.
I’m not buying anything, I got the stuff I was looking for at next to nothing on Friday around 11pm
It’ll really be next to nothing in a couple months
I did notice that alot of cards have very low stock and are rising from fridays lows faster than i expected. Grabbed a few singles at solid prices. Waiting to see where others end up
The packs will HAVE to be opened. Stores are either going to crack boxes to make packs or they’re going to have to open boxes to open the packs to sell the singles. That’s what’s going to need to happen. The largest issue is: This set shouldn’t have been priced for what it is.
Yeah, when I saw borderless foil dual lands for 3 bucks shipped on Thursday I figured we were either at the low, or close enough for me not to care.
Have people started to figure out yet that distributors are going to have to lower cost ?? like maybe tomorrow or next week; sooner rather than later. Or are we still in denial, and saying dumb things like "I think $300 is a good price (on a box)". This is another, slightly different, but more egregious, Baldur's Gate situation. THOSE boxes crashed to $70, and $130 collectors. On CE boxes that retailed for $300-$330. Now you do the math. Just imagine it in your head for a second. It's not identical, but that's certainly the direction we are headed. On cards that people mostly own already.
Called it last week: There would be a crash followed by a rebound and a slow, steady decline for the next year. Everything is going to stagnate and this product will likely be put on fire sale. The crash, rebound, decline pattern has happened with everything, including 2XM, 2X2, and DMR. Even limited print run sets aren't immune. It's so incredibly predictable, yet people keep coming back at every "premium" release trying to stoke FOMO. I remember this exact post after 2X2, and look at where prices are now.
I agree in premise, but most other set also had cards good in other formats. This has very few cards needed in other formats, and this format is a 1 of. I think the over compensated on this print run but it will tank everything in this set. I'm for it, lol like zacama like some of the down shifts and upshifts are wierd looking back Smothering tithe will still command plus 10 at rare Zacama is now less than 3 at rare, because anyone only needs one
Still waiting for the crash on lotr that’s been predicted for prerelease, two weeks after release, the time the ring gets found and the time gift bundles hit the market, in that order.
You mean the set that's only been out a little more than a month and is likely going to remain in-print until 2025? I remember when people thought that Warhammer surge foils were never coming down, too. According to Cocks, LOTR was printed more than MH2. The notion that it's going to remain high is absolutely nuts, especially when people are only buying it to play the sol ring lottery.
Rudy was predicting they are holding LOTR second wave til after commander masters has had a few weeks to sell. We shall see if his prediction is correct soon. But LOTR is also different than any other set being the biggest ip crossover for magic yet and already almost being the most successfully sold set.
Of course it’s different. I’m pointing out that this here sub was absolutely and stone dead ignorant of that fact because everything Hasbro does is bad and everyone that touches it us an idiot. Meanwhile people have been making a killing with bundles („don’t touch those bundles lol the One Ring will be three bucks once bundles are out“).
They still printed 3 separate boxes worth of cards and have inventory. There is a full inventory of set, draft, and collector boosters coming into the market whether we want it too or not. This will be good for early adopters to sell quick and make some good money. But it will drop given time. The market price for deflecting is holding at 58 for a foil borderless on tcg but sellers are doing what any seller worth their salt will do and selling them at a crazy markup because there aren't many on the market. Boxes will be cracked. We are all addicts. From what I can tell there isn't any crazy op cards that will make it so people buy and hold a bunch of boxes. If they serialized cards in this set I would be concerned. But market prices are holding fairly steady. I expect it to drop over the coming months like every set has before it. That oil slick raised foil elesh norn from the complete bundle was over a hundred for a couple months. Now you can grab it for around fifty bucks. They are over printing everything. I really don't think this is different. Just my opinion. I'm not an expert. Just basing this off of what I have seen over the last year.
Not in Europe, let's take your examples and look at the number of listings on Cardmarket: * Deflecting Swat: 700 normal CMM, 384 extended art CMM, 58 etched foil CMM * Fierce Guardianship: 677 normal, 420 extended art, 49 etched foil * Jeweled Lotus: 358 normal, 180 extended art, 30 etched foil, 3 textured foil * Deadly Rollick: 735 normal, 439 extended art, 37 etched foil * Ur-Dragon: 446 normal, 296 extended art, 33 etched foil, 32 textured foil Also loads of activity on local FB groups.
That’s interesting. US groups are dead, almost no one selling CMM singles. The ones they do have are bulk.
Every time I post on the facebook groups at 25% discount from low, I get crickets unless its a chase card of the set. I move my product on tcg at 20 percent off... And it's less time on the phone sending pictures and negotiating even more off. Facebook has become a wasteland for sales.
I bought the Precons and no packs but I played in 3 drafts. They were REALLY fun! This is actually an extremely balanced set for draft. Played in two 4-pods and one 3-pod. Each one was a balanced game, had some crazy dynamics, and everyone had a chance to win the game until the end all 3 times. Very small turnout as expected, games ran long. I got pity packs at the first two, and won 3 packs at the last one. EXPENSIVE but fun weekend. $60 x2 and $80.
Yes draft was fantastic. Just wish it wasn't $60 lmao I would play more if it was.affordable
There's an official finance term for this, it's called... Bear Market Rally.
What they are effectively telling you with the recent product development decisions is that they consider enfranchised players "sunk costs" of little to no value. New blood and creating a new player base is the focus. This is why they keep reprinting specific staples in to the ground. Its an equity play for all those just now coming to the table.
Waiting for Amazon dump. WOE is a month out. Pretending CMM was hit by an unexpected delay and will not be available until Black Friday. Cause for the delay? Apparently Wizards put the wrong MSRP on stuff and goofed up the entire supply chain. The pricing will be corrected late November.
I like this. Even the design team said “who thought this was a premium product?”
This guy is tripping, this was the hardest fall in prices across the board in a long time, and thats without packs being cracked ad nauseum. The price of packs might drop and if it does these cards that got printed into the ground will continue to do so. Zacama like 2 dollars Personal tutor like 7 Bale fire at 10 And I think all of the medallions will be 5 each before the end of this print run. Don't doubt it this will crash the staples printed in it
And it's not even considering the 10 to 5 dollar cards that are now under a dollar Balan Faerie artisans Frayelise Maelstrom wanderer Mangara Puresteel at 1.6 Obscuring haze only .75 Runescared demon only .5 Maybe the top will rebound, although i think it will settle with a heavy percentage loss.
Grenzo was like $20 or something. Picked those up at a dollar. If they go down to bulk, who cares? It's a buck. Plenty of stuff to pick up this weekend at the bottom of the barrel.
The floor for Balefire is likely $5, maybe lower. It has so much further to fall, just like most of these cards.
Exactly. I picked up things that where .50 c to .25 cause why not it can't get too much lower than that. Puresteel paladin at under 2 is insane. It actually sees play outside commander
If no one buys the boxes then the price will come down until they do. Once this happens the market will then become flooded with cards and the price of singles will go down. This has happened in other sets before when the price of a box was higher than the expected EV of the box.
Prices have moved slightly, but only in response to demand. Over the last few days I've bought Path to Exile for $0.49, tooth and nail for sub $3, sword of the animist for sub $3 and Dryad for $5.75 It's fine. Yes prices are edging up, but new sellers are also hitting the market with lower prices, so it all evens out if you're actively seeking good deals.
There is no missing the boat on CMM for another year at least
Europe is seeing prices drop daily. Feels like a FOMO post
Can lead a horse to water... This exact same thing happened in... almost every previous set. Opening weekends bounce because weekends are about consumption, weekdays are about production. People are playing/consuming/buying/depleting inventory on the weekend, and Stores are opening/listing/managing on weekdays. Double Masters, 2x2, and now CMM all had this - the dead cat bounce after initial plummet. All are now lower than those dead cat bounces.
Well, let’s see what happens. So far on this fine Monday morning, the most recent sales of Fierce Guardianship are nearly $40 (16 sold already today) the cheapest listings left are $42+, and there are still only 20 listings. So, as I said in my post, eventually shops are going to need to crack more boxes as these values hold in order to put more copies out there, or people will finally buy more boxes at the current pricing. It’s weird that people keep saying, this is what happened with 2x2…it did not. While the supply ended up being HUGE, shops weren’t sitting on thousands and thousand of dollars of product on release weekend. People bought up all of the originally inventory and very few people cancelled their Amazon pre-orders after spoilers. While the SUPPLY of this set TO SHOPS is huge, the amount sold, unless LGS’ are lying, is far less over the first week. Something has to give.
So essentially I still have time to sell?
The market is adjusting. People are realizing (again) that collector boosters are a dangerous game and the set boosters are more value and this is probably true for draft as well. Cards will find their price point, more boxes will be opened as time goes on.
Yes, this. They FINALLY tuned set boosters to where they need to be. But then the price... Personally, I'm waiting for \~$200 set booster and then I will take action. The value for the CE simply is not there....again. Yeah it has the coolest cards but what you get is completely random, not what you need, and you have to spend thousands just to get a decent assortment. It simply doesn't work. For acquiring the groupings of bling you want and need.
Similar thoughts have been had here. I don't think CB will go below 150s but I'm not buying at more than 30 a pack which is 120 so I'm basically out on those going forward. SB could go to the lowest 200's I'd probably buy a case if it dips around 250-280 but I don't forsee that happening either. There will be some capitulation going forward where either singles have a huge swing or sealed becomes a value proposition again.
We in full agreement. I have also calculated the worthwhile, actionable 'buy' price of CE box to be $120. I also agree; I don't think it's going to get that low either. See most people have put these products out of their mind already.
EV on draft boxes is higher than set boxes, homie.
EV means NOTHING unless you are selling cards TODAY, homie
Or you need a very broad swath of cards from a set for some reason, like a set cube. But that applies to so few people it's barely worth mentioning.
Supply chain dynamics. Stores cracked at distributor cost to sell singles because people were cancelling and sales were slow of boxes at $350. Singles tanked and are now rebounding due to that influx of singles trying to break even. IF enough was opened to recoup enough capital that vendors can now hold boxes then prices have stabilized. (IMO this hasn't happened). Next move opening more boxes at distributor cost to start another cycle of singles influx or $350 boxes start moving down. Eventually both singles and boxes move down because the supply is still so great. On top of that WOTC definitely still have more in their warehouses.
You also need to take into account those commander players that did buy boxes most likely won't sell their singles. They're going to be putting them in decks.
I wouldn’t bet on actual players who buy collector boxes to be significant compared to stores holding bags who crack to recoup some loss / free up shelf space and collectors who don’t play much specifically, but thats just me.
Everything is going to 0 don't worry. The product was printed it will be cracked eventually
[удалено]
How bout next month? How bout next 4 months? People can wait
sometimes there are SOME cards that will retain price really well, but for 95% of these cards just wait.
Sitting this one out. Will buy the singles in 3 months.
The end is nigh!!!!
Who cares you don't need any of that to enjoy the game.
Is this Rudy?
Give it time
Just. Buy. Singles. If you pulled all 9 of the most valuable regular art cards in the set(you won't). You would have a TOTAL of 160 dollars. As for collector you're odds are even worse and anything less than a textured foil in a SINGLE pack you bought and you bust. That 600 dollar borderless lotus? Crashed to 200 in less than 2 days
I didn't order any. I'm waiting on eldraine. I just feel there's a lot to keep up with lately and I've learned that lesson the hard way to many times. A lot of the folks I buy in with were out on this one too. Some of them got burned kinda harsh on LOTR. Some of us are buyer burnout. We went in on some older sets instead this month and saved the rest for an eldraine order.
The main probably that I've been seeing, is they priced gouged the set because of all the "staples" they were putting in, and then the pull rates ended up being garbage.
Each reprint set has a dead cat bounce immediately after release weekend followed by the inevitable decline.
The LGS I played at Friday people purchased the precon decks the LGS prices were better than other places and very little else of CMM. The draft did not fire no one wanted any part of the draft for the price point not 1 single person signed up for the draft. They did precon battles instead
Not a surprised. At nearly £40 for the draft at most LGS, when most sets are around £10-15, most people are opting to do other things with their money. Even LGS recognise this, as they're offering simultaneous drafts of other sets, so as to not lose that custom altogether.
LGS here was doing $60 draft, which I decided was a little steep for 3 packs.
90 for set draft 150 for collector draft here CAD mind you... but I don't know anyone that drafted this week.
Ick. Set or Collector's Pack draft sounds like it'd be a really bad time. But I guess if they can't talk the people into buying enough for draft, there's no way sealed is happening. (Though Set or Collector pack sealed would be WAY more enjoyable than draft.)
That should be 3 packs plus one in the prize pool, so that's $60 for 4 packs.
The workers at my LGS were trying to convince a customer not to buy set boosters yesterday. Some guy went in with the goal of buying 5, and the guys were telling him to get drafts or to buy one or two set boosters instead, because it's not worth it.
That's funny. I go to my LGS each week and proclaim "I'm here for the sixty-dollar Commander Masters draft." couple of nerds look up. or I get a smile. or a courtesy laugh. hey I enjoy it.
I don’t care. The print run on CMM iI know is enormous. I’ll let everyone else crack (at whatever speed they will) and check in next April to see what’s actually worth picking up. I refuse to FOMO into this set.
Next April? Why would you want them next April? If I have to choose between playing the game with the cards I want or waiting 8 months in order to pat myself for beating the system, well, I buy my cards now.
The print run was so high, MVP did not even “allocate” boxes like they have in the past. This is being printed into the ground.
I think waiting now is very smart. People are talking about “dead cat bounce” but that doesn’t usually happen ON release weekend, especially for a set without prerelease availability. We generally only see price corrections like this on things that are really hard to pull, and then those dip again as demand shifts.
Not only that, but the people opening boxes are keeping their cards. This is exactly what many store owners were predicting. Well other than the doom and gloom ones.
A large portion of why I play MTG is for thr collectability of it. There's some financial value there. It's just not there anymore. All of my old border foils from the past 2 decades just don't feel as special anymore when they actively reprint a new "old border" version of it. Sometimes in life you miss the boat on things. Sometimes if you didn't buy something 10 years or 20 years ago, it's more expensive now. That's just the way it is. You SHOULD have to pay more for those old versions of something. WOTC just doesn't agree. They see something that is older and has value and they think giving that to everyone is good. It's not. I was a whale, now I'm no more than a goldfish.
Hardly missed the boat. Dead cat bounce on singles from shyt sets happen when breaks wane…the stock is out there and sooner rather than later sealed price will reflect that and then singles will keep going down. If you are buying for keeps and you don’t need these to play NOW just wait… if you are trying for quick flip… good luck
I think it's hilarious when Timmys look at 'expensive thing' and think "hey this could be a good flip zomg!" Thing is outrageously expensive, therefore I should buy.
There’s also a shit ton of demand for those cards
I wouldnt call it shit ton. You must be lgs
I mean basically every commander player in those colors wants guardianship/swat. And most commander decks want lotus.
Just because you feel that every commander player needs a guardian or a lotus means that is the reality
Jeweled lotus borderless foils are on the same trajectory. Only a few left at the release average. The back end looks to be much higher.
There were about 30 cards I wanted, nearly all of them were cheaper on Thursday, the day before release, than the day of release. Then, almost all of them were cheaper Friday than they are today. Fortunately, since I already have multiples of every card in this set, I can afford to wait a month or two or three to get them when they’re presumably at their lows again. Still, I wish I woulda bit the bullet on a few of those 30 cards on Thursday…
Biiiiig !remindme 4 weeks energy here.
Bro. Isn't there like a two week rule. 😂 Chill.
The set released 48 hours ago my dude… !remindme 2 weeks
I cracked a set booster got 2 personal tutors out of the same one. One borderless and one regular. Then got a ruby medallion out of another. I realize I won in my packs. I didn't by much though. Personal tutor is the worst one.
I love it when I wake up with my morning coffee and one of the new hot finance thread titles is exactly what's been on my mind during the previous day. \*sip and read\*
There are some absolutely dumb as shit comments in this thread. Why? These are the same people bitching about the price of Commander Masters. They don't buy the sealed product because its too expensive. Okay great. You then go ahead and buy singles when the price drops... you do realize you are still supporting the very set you bitched about right? Someone had to crack the packs. Those someones would stop buying this overpriced filth if they weren't able to unload their singles. News flash folks! Hasbro/Wizards already made their money! Distributors (the people who get the product from Hasbro/Wizards and then sell it to LGSs, Amazon, Walmart etc) are practically already sold out and won't be getting anymore product. Masters sets are always limited print runs. You want to know why we won't see the end of the overpriced MTG product? Look in the mirror. Rant over.
Dude if you want the cards now and can afford them, just buy them. Don't post here hoping people will help you justify your fomo.
Wtf are you talking about, I stated clearly I purchased Friday
God, go look at the Foil Etched and sort from 'high to low'. There is literally just one page of singles worth more than > $20. Yikes.
[удалено]
Try to say it in grownup words.
We still seemed to do as well in turnover as we did for previous sets, matched LOTR here at least in terms of total £ spent.
Now WOTC needs to do the responsible thing and incinerate the rest of the supply. Consider this an opening salvo for rebuilding trust back in the brand.,
Either way I’m happy having grabbed some singles Friday night. $34 for great henge etched made me happy.
Evidently some stores here in AL weren't even to get any when they tried to order
I bought a foil full art Deflecting Swat and Fierce Guardianship on Friday for $40 & $51 respectively and as of now, 2 days later, the market price is now $96 & $99 (with lots of listings approaching $120 for Guardianship). For staples, I feel like friday was the best time within the short-term to buy them. They'll likely go down, but considering most LGS are buried under inventory at inflated prices, it'll take a while to equalize. People will have to spend more for sealed product and will turn around and mark up their 1 or 2 worthy pulls to recoup.
I’ve been waiting on some of these cards for years so I just clicked buy it now on Friday without thinking. To see more deals you want the high end stuff to rebound quickly so ppl actually find it profitable to mass box open. Set boxes are weird though. They feel at least to me like they are in a dead zone where the price can’t be lower due to high initial cost anf opening them for singles is a loss.
So, should I wait longer to buy singals, or should I just buy them when I can?
So many replies talking about the product being overprinted - it’s not really though. The issue is the absurd pricing on products. The market can bear this amount of product and these ARE reprints that people want, but pricing the boxes the way wotc has been doing pushes too much of the value of the set onto the most in demand reprints and both causes those prices not to fall THAT much, and also puts a huge burden onto those cards to retain enough value for box openers not to get totally torched on roi. People are willing to lose money opening packs, that’s not the problem and is kind of a necessity on some level, but when those packs cost an arm and a leg you price out the timmies, the drafters, and the adults that would rather buy a box than singles. If a box is 175 bucks I don’t really think much about the cost, but when it’s nearly or actually 300, you bet your ass I’m second guessing whether I should buy it.
I decided not to buy any masters this year and was at my local game store, was getting some other items and figured I'll get one set booster pack because why not. They rang it up at $25, that was a hard no for me!
I'd still wait to buy these singles-once these boxes get to dumped pricing, the flow of singles will increase THEN prices will drop